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Kauffman Index of Startup Activity: National Trends 2016 考夫曼创业活动指数:2016年全国趋势
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2828359
R. Fairlie, E. Reedy, Arnobio Morelix, Joshua Russell-Fritch
The Kauffman Index of Startup Activity is a comprehensive indicator of new business creation in the United States, integrating several high-quality sources of timely entrepreneurship information into one composite indicator of startup activity. The Index captures business activity in all industries and is based on both a nationally representative sample size of more than a half million observations each year and on the universe of all employer businesses in the United States — which covers approximately five million companies. This allows us to look at both entrepreneurs and the startups they create.This report presents trends in startup activity over the past two decades for the United States. Two upcoming reports look at these same trends in all fifty states and the forty largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Trends in startup activity also are reported at the national level for specific demographic groups for some of the Index components, when available.
考夫曼创业活动指数(Kauffman Index of Startup Activity)是美国新企业创建的综合指标,它将多个高质量的及时创业信息来源整合为一个创业活动的综合指标。该指数涵盖了所有行业的商业活动,并基于每年超过50万次的全国代表性样本和美国所有雇主企业(涵盖约500万家公司)。这让我们能够同时看待企业家和他们创建的初创公司。这份报告展示了过去二十年来美国创业活动的趋势。即将发布的两份报告着眼于所有50个州和美国最大的40个大都市区的相同趋势。如果有的话,还会在国家一级报告一些指数组成部分的特定人口群体的创业活动趋势。
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引用次数: 15
How Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions? 风险投资家如何做决策?
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2801385
Paul A. Gompers, W. Gornall, S. Kaplan, Ilya A. Strebulaev
We survey 885 institutional venture capitalists (VCs) at 681 firms to learn how they make decisions across eight areas: deal sourcing; investment selection; valuation; deal structure; post-investment value-added; exits; internal firm organization; and relationships with limited partners. In selecting investments, VCs see the management team as more important than business related characteristics such as product or technology. They also attribute more of the likelihood of ultimate investment success or failure to the team than to the business. While deal sourcing, deal selection, and post-investment value-added all contribute to value creation, the VCs rate deal selection as the most important of the three. We also explore (and find) differences in practices across industry, stage, geography and past success. We compare our results to those for CFOs (Graham and Harvey 2001) and private equity investors (Gompers, Kaplan and Mukharlyamov forthcoming).
我们调查了681家公司的885名机构风险投资家(vc),以了解他们如何在八个方面做出决策:交易采购;投资选择;估值;交易结构;post-investment增值;出口;企业内部组织;以及与有限合伙人的关系。在选择投资时,风投认为管理团队比产品或技术等与业务相关的特征更重要。他们还将最终投资成功或失败的可能性更多地归因于团队,而不是企业。虽然交易来源、交易选择和投资后增值都有助于价值创造,但风投认为交易选择是三者中最重要的。我们还探索(并发现)不同行业、阶段、地理位置和过去成功的实践差异。我们将我们的结果与首席财务官(Graham and Harvey 2001)和私人股本投资者(Gompers、Kaplan和Mukharlyamov即将出版)的结果进行了比较。
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引用次数: 381
Horse and Cart: The Role of Order in New Ventures 马与车:秩序在新企业中的作用
Pub Date : 2016-07-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2919676
Nachiket Bhawe, Hans Rawhouser, J. Pollack
Entrepreneurs need to accumulate different types of resources to take the initial steps to grow their ventures. While much is known about the configurations of resources that improve venture success, less is known on how ventures should initially accumulate resources to begin to exploit valuable opportunities. Using agent-based simulations, we classify resources by the functions (search and execution) that they provide. We find that acquiring search resources before execution resources leads to more valuable opportunities, but only under conditions of higher uncertainty. We contribute to the entrepreneurial resource acquisition literature by showing how resource order may affect an entrepreneur’s ability in opportunity discovery, evaluation, and exploitation. We draw inferences on contingencies that can increase the salience of resource order on venture success.
企业家需要积累不同类型的资源,以采取最初的步骤来发展他们的企业。虽然人们对提高风险投资成功的资源配置了解很多,但对风险投资最初应该如何积累资源以开始利用有价值的机会却知之甚少。使用基于代理的模拟,我们根据资源提供的功能(搜索和执行)对资源进行分类。我们发现,在获取执行资源之前获取搜索资源会带来更有价值的机会,但前提是不确定性更高。我们通过展示资源顺序如何影响企业家在机会发现、评估和利用方面的能力,为创业资源获取文献做出了贡献。我们得出了可以增加资源顺序对风险成功的显著性的偶然性的推论。
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引用次数: 2
The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity 人口老龄化对经济增长、劳动力和生产率的影响
Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w22452
Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell
Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)
预计人口老龄化将减缓美国的经济增长。我们使用各州人口老龄化的预定组成部分的变化来估计老龄化对1980-2010年人均GDP增长的影响。我们发现,60岁以上人口比例每增加10%,人均GDP就会下降5.5%。三分之一的减少是由于就业增长放缓;三分之二是由于劳动生产率增长放缓。劳动报酬和工资也随之下降。我们的估计表明,1980-2010年期间,人口老龄化使人均GDP增长率每年下降0.3个百分点。(jel e23, e24, j11, j14, j31, o47)
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引用次数: 148
Spatial Development and Agglomeration Economies in Services -- Lessons from India 服务业的空间发展和集聚经济——印度的经验教训
Pub Date : 2016-06-30 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7741
Syed Ejaz Ghani, A. G. Goswami, W. Kerr
Although many studies consider the spatial pattern of manufacturing plants in developing countries, the role of services as a driver of urbanization and structural transformation is still not well understood. Using establishment level data from India, this paper helps narrow this gap by comparing and contrasting the spatial development of services with that in manufacturing. The study during the 2001-2010 period suggests that (i) services are more urbanized than manufacturing and are moving toward the urban and, by contrast, the organized manufacturing sector is moving away from urban cores to the rural periphery; (ii) manufacturing and services activities are highly correlated in spatial terms and exhibit a high degree of concentration in just a few states and industries; (iii) manufacturing in urban districts has a stronger tendency to locate closer to larger cities relative to services activity; (iv) infrastructure has a significant effect on manufacturing output, while human capital matters more for services activity; and lastly, (v) technology penetration, measured by the penetration of the Internet, is more strongly associated with services than manufacturing. Similar results hold when growth in activity is measured over the study period rather than levels. Manufacturing and services do not appear to crowd each other out of local areas.
尽管许多研究考虑了发展中国家制造业工厂的空间格局,但服务业在城市化和结构转型中的驱动作用仍未得到很好的理解。本文利用来自印度的机构水平数据,通过比较和对比服务业与制造业的空间发展,有助于缩小这一差距。2001-2010年期间的研究表明:(1)服务业的城市化程度高于制造业,并正在向城市发展,相比之下,有组织的制造业正在从城市核心向农村边缘转移;(2)制造业和服务业在空间上高度相关,且高度集中于少数几个州和行业;(iii)相对于服务业活动,市区制造业更倾向于靠近大城市;(4)基础设施对制造业产出有显著影响,而人力资本对服务业活动的影响更大;最后,(v)以互联网普及率衡量的技术渗透与服务业的关系比与制造业的关系更强。同样的结果也适用于在研究期间测量活动的增长而不是水平。制造业和服务业似乎并没有将彼此挤出当地。
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引用次数: 10
Adoption with Social Learning and Network Externalities 采用与社会学习和网络外部性
Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22282
M. Fafchamps, Måns Soderbom, Monique vanden Boogaart
Using a large administrate dataset covering the universe of phone calls and airtime transfers in a country over a four year period, we examine the pattern of adoption of airtime transfers over time. We start by documenting strong network effects: increased usage of the new airtime transfer service by social neighbors predicts a higher adoption probability. We then seek to narrow down the possible sources of these network effects by distinguishing between network externalities and social learning. Within social learning, we also seek to differentiate between learning about existence of the new product from learning about its quality or usefulness. We find robust evidence suggestive of social learning both for the existence and the quality of the product. In contrast, we find that network effects turn negative after first adoption, suggesting that airtime transfers are strategic substitutes among network neighbors.
我们使用一个大型的管理数据集,涵盖了一个国家在四年期间的电话和通话时间转移,研究了通话时间转移的采用模式。我们首先记录了强大的网络效应:社会邻居对新的通话时间转移服务的使用增加预示着更高的采用概率。然后,我们试图通过区分网络外部性和社会学习来缩小这些网络效应的可能来源。在社会学习中,我们还试图区分了解新产品的存在性和了解其质量或有用性。我们发现了强有力的证据,表明社会学习对产品的存在和质量都有影响。相比之下,我们发现网络效应在首次采用后变为负值,这表明通话时间转移是网络邻居之间的战略替代。
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引用次数: 10
What Motivates Effort? Evidence and Expert Forecasts 努力的动力是什么?证据和专家预测
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1093/RESTUD/RDX033
Stefano DellaVigna, Devin G. Pope
How much do different monetary and non-monetary motivators induce costly effort? Does the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers? We present the results of a large-scale real-effort experiment with 18 treatment arms. We compare the effect of three motivators: (i) standard incentives; (ii) behavioral factors like present-bias, reference dependence, and social preferences; and (iii) non-monetary inducements from psychology. In addition, we elicit forecasts by behavioral experts regarding the effectiveness of the treatments, allowing us to compare results to expectations. We find that (i) monetary incentives work largely as expected, including a very low piece rate treatment which does not crowd out incentives; (ii) the evidence is partly consistent with standard behavioral models, including warm glow, though we do not find evidence of probability weighting; (iii) the psychological motivators are effective, but less so than incentives. We then compare the results to forecasts by 208 experts. On average, the experts anticipate several key features, like the effectiveness of psychological motivators. A sizeable share of experts, however, expects crowd-out, probability weighting, and pure altruism, counterfactually. This heterogeneity does not reflect field of training, as behavioral economists, standard economists, and psychologists make similar forecasts. Using a simple model, we back out key parameters for social preferences, time preferences, and reference dependence, comparing expert beliefs and experimental results.
不同的货币和非货币激励因素在多大程度上诱导了昂贵的努力?效果是否符合研究人员的预期?我们介绍了18个治疗组的大规模实际努力实验的结果。我们比较了三种激励因素的效果:(i)标准激励;(2)行为及时性偏见等因素,参考依赖,和社会偏好;从心理学和(iii)非货币性诱惑。此外,我们从行为专家那里得到关于治疗效果的预测,使我们能够将结果与预期进行比较。我们发现(1)货币激励在很大程度上符合预期,包括非常低的计件工资待遇,这不会排挤激励;(ii)证据部分符合标准行为模型,包括暖光,尽管我们没有发现概率加权的证据;(3)心理激励是有效的,但不如激励有效。然后我们比较结果和专家预测到208年。平均而言,专家们预测了几个关键特征,比如心理激励因素的有效性。相当大份额的专家,然而,预计减少,概率权重,和纯粹的利他主义,着。这种异质性并没有反映出训练领域,因为行为经济学家、标准经济学家和心理学家都做出了类似的预测。利用一个简单的模型,我们反演了社会偏好、时间偏好和参考依赖的关键参数,比较了专家的观点和实验结果。
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引用次数: 303
Revenue and Incentive Effects of Basis Step-Up at Death: Lessons from the 2010 "Voluntary" Estate Tax Regime 死亡时基差上升的税收和激励效应:2010年“自愿”遗产税制度的经验教训
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.P20161037
Robert N. Gordon, David Joulfaian, J. Poterba
Abstract In 2010, the U.S. estate tax expired and executors of wealthy decedents were not required to file estate tax returns. In the absence of the estate tax, beneficiaries received assets with carryover rather than stepped-up basis. Unrealized capital gains accounted for 44 percent of the fair market value of non-cash assets in estates that chose the carryover basis regime, and an even higher percentage for some asset categories. Many of the largest gains were on assets that had been held for at least two decades.
2010年,美国遗产税到期,富有的继承人的遗嘱执行人不再需要提交遗产税申报表。在没有遗产税的情况下,受益人获得的资产是结转的,而不是递增的。未实现的资本收益占选择结转基础制度的遗产中非现金资产公平市场价值的44%,某些资产类别的比例甚至更高。许多最大的收益来自于持有了至少20年的资产。
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引用次数: 3
Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy 众包市政府:利用比赛提高检查准确性
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.P20161027
E. Glaeser, Andrew N. Hillis, S. Kominers, Michael Luca
Can open tournaments improve the quality of city services? The proliferation of big data makes it possible to use predictive analytics to better target services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to crowdsource competence by making data public and offering a reward for the best algorithm. This paper provides a simple model suggesting that open tournaments dominate consulting contracts when cities have a reasonable tolerance for risk and when there is enough labor with low opportunity costs of time. We also illustrate how tournaments can be successful, by reporting on a Boston-based restaurant hygiene prediction tournament that we helped coordinate. The Boston tournament yielded algorithms—at low cost—that proved reasonably accurate when tested “out-of-sample” on hygiene inspections occurring after the algorithms were submitted. We draw upon our experience in working with Boston to provide practical suggestions for governments and other organizations seeking to run prediction tournaments in the future.
公开赛事能提高城市服务质量吗?大数据的激增使得利用预测分析来更好地定位卫生检查等服务成为可能,但市政府很少拥有开发预测算法所需的内部人才。城市可以聘请顾问,但更便宜的选择是通过公开数据和奖励最佳算法来众包能力。本文提供了一个简单的模型,表明当城市具有合理的风险容忍度,当有足够的劳动力且时间机会成本低时,公开竞赛在咨询合同中占主导地位。我们还通过报道我们帮助协调的波士顿餐厅卫生预测锦标赛来说明锦标赛是如何成功的。波士顿锦标赛以低成本产生了算法,在算法提交后进行的“样本外”卫生检查中,这些算法被证明相当准确。我们利用与波士顿合作的经验,为寻求在未来举办预测比赛的政府和其他组织提供实用的建议。
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引用次数: 91
The Causes of Peer Effects in Production: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments 生产中同伴效应的原因:来自一系列田间试验的证据
Pub Date : 2016-02-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1652993
J. Horton, R. Zeckhauser
Workers respond to the output choices of their peers. What explains this well documented phenomenon of peer effects? Do workers value equity, fear punishment from equity-minded peers, or does output from peers teach them about employers’ expectations? We test these alternative explanations in a series of field experiments. We find clear evidence of peer effects, as have others. Workers raise their own output when exposed to high-output peers. They also punish low-output peers, even when that low output has no effect on them. They may be embracing and enforcing the employer’s expectations. (Exposure to employer-provided work samples influences output much the same as exposure to peer-provided work.) However, even when employer expectations are clearly stated, workers increase output beyond those expectations when exposed to workers producing above expectations. Overall, the evidence is strongly consistent with the notion that peer effects are mediated by workers’ sense of fairness related to relative effort.
员工会对同事的产出选择做出反应。如何解释这种被充分记录的同伴效应现象?员工是否重视公平,害怕受到志同道合的同事的惩罚,还是同事的表现让他们了解了雇主的期望?我们在一系列的实地实验中检验了这些不同的解释。我们和其他人一样,发现了同伴效应的明显证据。员工在面对高产出的同事时,也会提高自己的产出。他们也会惩罚低产出的同伴,即使低产出对他们没有影响。他们可能会接受并执行雇主的期望。(接触雇主提供的工作样本对产出的影响与接触同行提供的工作样本大致相同。)然而,即使雇主的期望是明确的,工人的产出也会超出预期,因为工人的产出高于预期。总的来说,这些证据与同伴效应是由工人相对努力的公平感所调节的这一观点是强烈一致的。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series
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