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Worker Flows, Entry and Productivity in the New Zealand Construction Industry 新西兰建筑业的工人流动、进入和生产力
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.29310/WP.2018.02
N. Chappell, A. Jaffe, T. Le
We use administrative data on the population of New Zealand construction firms from 2001-2012, along with linked data on their employees and working proprietors, to study the relationships among worker flows, entry, and firm productivity. We find that job churn is prevalent in construction, with around 60 percent of firm-worker pairs not existing previously or not existing subsequently. The data also show that firms gaining or losing any labour are more productive than static firms, and that firms gaining labour from other construction firms are 4-6 percent more productive than the industry average in a given year. Our analysis suggests such firms are productive in part because of knowledge flows from other construction firms; in our preferred specification, with firm fixed effects, a standard deviation increase in the productivity of new employees’ previous firms is associated with a 0.6 percent increase in productivity. New entrants are more productive than pre-existing firms. Firms that enter briefly and disappear exhibit high productivity for that brief period, and firms that enter and persist exhibit a persistent productivity advantage that averages about 5%, but which grows as experience accumulates. The entry and worker-knowledge-flow phenomena are distinct, in that the entry effect is not explained by employee composition, and non-entrant firms also benefit from worker knowledge flows.
我们使用2001-2012年新西兰建筑公司的人口管理数据,以及他们的员工和在职业主的相关数据,来研究工人流动、进入和企业生产率之间的关系。我们发现,在建筑行业,工作变动很普遍,大约60%的公司员工对之前不存在,或者后来不存在。数据还显示,获得或失去任何劳动力的公司比静态公司的生产率更高,从其他建筑公司获得劳动力的公司的生产率比给定年份的行业平均水平高出4- 6%。我们的分析表明,这类公司之所以富有成效,部分原因是来自其他建筑公司的知识流动;在我们首选的规范中,在固定效应下,新员工以前公司的生产率提高一个标准差与生产率提高0.6%有关。新进入者比已经存在的公司更有生产力。短期进入并消失的公司在这一短暂时期内表现出高生产率,而进入并持续存在的公司表现出持续的生产率优势,平均约为5%,但随着经验的积累而增长。进入现象和工人-知识流动现象是不同的,因为进入效应不能用员工构成来解释,非进入企业也从工人知识流动中受益。
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引用次数: 5
Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy 区域异质性与货币政策再融资渠道
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2619932
Martin Beraja, A. Fuster, Erik Hurst, Joseph Vavra
We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but that these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We then build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with both mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the aggregate implications for monetary policy arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.
我们认为住房权益的时变区域分布通过其对抵押贷款再融资的影响来影响货币政策的总体后果。利用详细的贷款水平数据,我们表明,住房权益的地区差异会影响对降息的再融资和支出反应,但这些影响会随着房价增长的地区分布变化而变化。然后,我们用抵押贷款借款人和贷款人建立了一个异构家庭再融资模型,并用它来探索从我们的区域证据中产生的货币政策的总体影响。我们发现,2008年的股权分配使得萧条地区的支出对降息的反应更弱,从而抑制了总刺激并增加了地区消费不平等,而在一些早期的衰退中则相反。综上所述,我们的研究结果强烈表明,货币政策制定者应该跟踪长期的地区公平分配。
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引用次数: 96
Does Cheap Talk Affect Market Outcomes? Evidence from Ebay 廉价言论会影响市场结果吗?来自Ebay的证据
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24437
Daniel W. Elfenbein, Raymond J. Fisman, Brian McManus
We study cheap talk by firms and responses by their consumers, focusing on unverifiable promises of charitable donations on eBay during 2005–2006. Cheap talk listings have lower sales probabilities but sell at higher prices when successful. The negative relationship between cheap talk and sales is concentrated in the months following Hurricane Katrina, a time when verifiable and unverifiable charity listings increased dramatically. Finally, we show that cheap talk sellers have lower quality ratings than those making verifiable donations. Our results suggest that buyers ( justifiably) avoid cheap talk listings when credible quality signals are available, thus limiting the extent of cheap talk. (JEL D12, D82, D83, L15, L31, M31)
我们研究了公司的廉价言论和消费者的反应,重点是2005-2006年eBay上无法核实的慈善捐赠承诺。便宜的谈话清单销售概率较低,但成功时售价较高。廉价言论与销售之间的负面关系集中在卡特里娜飓风过后的几个月里,这段时间里,可核实和不可核实的慈善清单急剧增加。最后,我们表明,廉价的空谈卖家的质量评级低于那些进行可验证捐赠的卖家。我们的研究结果表明,当可信的质量信号可用时,买家(有理由)避免廉价的谈话列表,从而限制了廉价谈话的程度。(jel d12, d82, d83, l15, l31, m31)
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引用次数: 8
Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements 经济和政策的不确定性:出口动态和协议价值
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3199943
Jeronimo Carballo, Kyle Handley, N. Limão
We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection and their interaction dampens export investment. This can be mitigated by trade agreements, which are particularly valuable in periods of increased demand volatility. We use firm data to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics in 2003-2011 and estimate the model. We find a significant role for uncertainty in explaining the trade collapse in the 2008 crisis and partial recovery in its aftermath. Consistent with the model predictions, we find that the negative effects worked (1) through the extensive margin, (2) in destinations without preferential agreements with the U.S. (accounting for over half its trade) and (3) in industries with higher potential protection. U.S. exports to non-preferential markets would have been 6.5% higher under an agreement—equivalent to an 8% foreign GDP increase. These findings highlight and quantify the value of international policy commitments through agreements that mitigate uncertainty, particularly during downturns.
我们在一个动态的异质企业模型中考察经济和政策不确定性的相互作用。外国收入、贸易保护及其相互作用的不确定性抑制了出口投资。这可以通过贸易协定来缓解,在需求波动加剧的时期,贸易协定尤其有价值。我们使用公司数据建立了关于2003-2011年美国出口动态的新事实,并对模型进行了估计。我们发现,不确定性在解释2008年危机中的贸易崩溃及其后的部分复苏方面发挥了重要作用。与模型预测一致,我们发现负面影响(1)通过广泛的边际效应,(2)在与美国没有优惠协议的目的地(占其贸易的一半以上)和(3)在具有更高潜在保护的行业。根据该协议,美国对非优惠市场的出口将增加6.5%,相当于外国GDP增长8%。这些发现强调并量化了通过协议减轻不确定性(特别是在经济低迷时期)的国际政策承诺的价值。
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引用次数: 42
Learning When to Quit: An Empirical Model of Experimentation 学习何时放弃:实验的经验模型
Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24358
Bernhard Ganglmair, Timothy S. Simcoe, E. Tarantino
The paper studies a dynamic model of the decision to continue or abandon a research project. Researchers improve their ideas over time and also learn whether those ideas will be adopted by the scientific community. Projects are abandoned as researchers grow more pessimistic about their chance of success. It estimates the structural parameters of this dynamic decision problem using a novel data set that contains information on both successful and abandoned projects submitted to the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), an organization that creates and maintains internet standards. Using the model and parameter estimates, it also simulates two counterfactual policies: a cost-subsidy and a prize-based incentive scheme. For a fixed budget, subsidies have a larger impact on research output, but prizes perform better when accounting for researchers’ opportunity costs.
本文研究了一个研究项目继续或放弃决策的动态模型。随着时间的推移,研究人员会改进他们的想法,并了解这些想法是否会被科学界采用。随着研究人员对成功的可能性越来越悲观,一些项目被放弃。它使用一个新的数据集来估计这个动态决策问题的结构参数,该数据集包含提交给互联网工程任务组(IETF)的成功和放弃的项目的信息,IETF是一个创建和维护互联网标准的组织。利用模型和参数估计,它还模拟了两种反事实政策:成本补贴和基于奖励的激励方案。对于固定预算,补贴对研究产出的影响更大,但当考虑到研究人员的机会成本时,奖励表现更好。
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引用次数: 5
Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis 衡量信贷的均衡影响:来自印度小额信贷危机的证据
Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24329
Emily Breza, Cynthia Kinnan
In October 2010, the state government of Andhra Pradesh, India, issued an emergency ordinance, bringing microfinance activities in the state to a complete halt and causing a nationwide shock to the liquidity of lenders, especially those with loans in the affected state. We use this massive dislocation in the microfinance market to identify the causal impacts of a reduction in credit supply on consumption, earnings, and employment in general equilibrium in rural labor markets. Using a proprietary district-level data set from 25 separate, for-profit microlenders matched with household data from the National Sample Survey, we find that district-level reductions in credit supply are associated with significant decreases in casual daily wages, household wage earnings, and consumption. We find a substantial consumption multiplier from credit that is likely driven by two channels—aggregate demand and business investment. We calibrate a simple two-period, two-sector model of the rural economy that incorporates both channels and show that the magnitude of our wage results is consistent with the model’s predictions.
2010年10月,印度安得拉邦政府发布了一项紧急法令,使该邦的小额信贷活动完全停止,对贷款人的流动性造成了全国性的冲击,尤其是那些在受影响的邦有贷款的贷款人。我们利用小额信贷市场的这种大规模错位来确定信贷供应减少对农村劳动力市场一般均衡中的消费、收入和就业的因果影响。使用来自25个独立的营利性小额贷款机构的专有地区级数据集,与来自全国抽样调查的家庭数据相匹配,我们发现,地区级信贷供应的减少与临时日工资、家庭工资收入和消费的显著下降有关。我们从信贷中发现了一个可观的消费乘数,这可能是由两个渠道驱动的——总需求和商业投资。我们校准了一个简单的两期、两部门的农村经济模型,该模型包含了这两个渠道,并表明我们的工资结果的大小与模型的预测一致。
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引用次数: 101
Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization 人工智能、经济学和产业组织
Pub Date : 2018-01-10 DOI: 10.3386/W24839
H. Varian
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have been around for many years. However, in the last 5 years, remarkable progress has been made using multilayered neural networks in diverse areas such as image recognition, speech recognition, and machine translation. AI is a general purpose technology that is likely to impact many industries. In this chapter I consider how machine learning availability might affect the industrial organization of both firms that provide AI services and industries that adopt AI technology. My intent is not to provide an extensive overview of this rapidly-evolving area, but instead to provide a short summary of some of the forces at work and to describe some possible areas for future research.
机器学习(ML)和人工智能(AI)已经存在很多年了。然而,在过去的5年里,多层神经网络在图像识别、语音识别和机器翻译等不同领域取得了显著的进展。人工智能是一种通用技术,可能会影响许多行业。在本章中,我将考虑机器学习的可用性如何影响提供人工智能服务的公司和采用人工智能技术的行业的产业组织。我的目的不是对这个快速发展的领域提供一个广泛的概述,而是对一些正在起作用的力量提供一个简短的总结,并描述一些未来可能研究的领域。
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引用次数: 142
Leveraging Who You Know by What You Know: Specialization and Returns to Relational Capital 利用你所知道的:专业化和关系资本的回报
Pub Date : 2018-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/SMJ.2790
Heejung Byun, J. Frake, Rajshree Agarwal
Research Summary: This paper investigates the interaction effects of specialization and relational capital on performance. We distinguish between upstream and downstream relational capital and theorize that higher levels of specialization will buffer against decreases in upstream relational capital, because of deeper domain expertise and stronger downstream relational capital. Conversely, higher levels of generalization permit greater gains from increases in upstream relational capital, due to leverage across a more diversified downstream portfolio of activities. We test and find support for these hypotheses in the context of the US lobbying industry. Our study contributes to the strategic human capital literature by isolating the dimension of specialization and relational capital embodied within individuals and providing performance implications of the interactions. Managerial Summary: Both “what you know” and “whom you know” impacts performance. Generalists and specialists are different on the “what you know” dimension. On the “who you know” dimension, we distinguish between upstream (supplier) and downstream (client) relationships. We show that specialists are buffered by deeper downstream relations from performance declines when their powerful upstream connections lose power. Generalists benefit from broader networks when their upstream connections gain power. Thus, when the value of their relationships change, specialists and generalists should each assess when they can reap performance benefits, and when they need to bolster against adversities. For firms, our study suggests hiring the right mix of specialists and generalists is important to reduce risks from relational losses while enjoying the performance benefits from relational gains.
研究总结:本文主要研究专业化和关系资本对企业绩效的交互影响。我们区分了上游和下游关系资本,并提出了更高水平的专业化将缓冲上游关系资本的减少的理论,因为更深的领域专业知识和更强的下游关系资本。相反,更高的泛化水平允许从上游关系资本的增加中获得更大的收益,这是由于跨更多样化的下游活动组合的杠杆作用。我们在美国游说行业的背景下对这些假设进行了测试并找到了支持。我们的研究通过分离专业化维度和个体内部体现的关系资本,并提供相互作用的绩效含义,为战略人力资本文献做出了贡献。管理总结:“你知道什么”和“你认识谁”都会影响绩效。通才和专才在“你知道什么”这个维度上是不同的。在“你认识谁”的维度上,我们区分了上游(供应商)和下游(客户)关系。我们表明,当专家强大的上游关系失去权力时,他们的业绩下降会受到更深层下游关系的缓冲。当通才的上游网络获得力量时,他们就会从更广泛的网络中获益。因此,当他们关系的价值发生变化时,专家和通才都应该评估他们何时可以获得绩效收益,何时需要支持以应对逆境。对于公司来说,我们的研究表明,雇用合适的专家和通才组合对于减少关系损失的风险,同时享受关系收益带来的绩效收益非常重要。
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引用次数: 42
Ai and International Trade Ai与国际贸易
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24254
Avi Goldfarb, Daniel Trefler
This paper explores the international dimensions of the economics of artificial intelligence. Trade theory emphasizes the roles of scale, competition, and knowledge creation and knowledge diffusion as fundamental to comparative advantage. We explore key features of AI with respect to these dimensions and describe the features of an appropriate model of international trade in the context of AI. We then discuss policy implications with respect to investments in research, and behind-the-border regulations such as privacy, data localization, standards, and competition. We conclude by emphasizing that there is still much to learn before we have a comprehensive understanding of how AI will affect trade.
本文探讨了人工智能经济学的国际维度。贸易理论强调规模、竞争、知识创造和知识扩散是比较优势的基础。我们从这些方面探讨了人工智能的关键特征,并描述了人工智能背景下适当的国际贸易模型的特征。然后,我们讨论了有关研究投资的政策含义,以及诸如隐私、数据本地化、标准和竞争等边境法规。最后,我们强调,在全面了解人工智能将如何影响贸易之前,还有很多东西需要学习。
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引用次数: 66
Purposes, Priorities and Accountability Under Social Business Structures: Resolving Ambiguities and Enhancing Adoption 社会企业结构下的目的、优先事项和责任:解决歧义并加强采纳
Pub Date : 2017-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/S1074-754020170000019002
J. Tyler, E. Absher, K. Garman, Anthony J. Luppino
Abstract This chapter demonstrates that social business models do not meaningfully prioritize or impose accountability to “social good” over other purposes in ways that (a) best protect against owners changing their minds or entry of new owners with different priorities and (b) enable reliable accountability over time and across circumstances. This chapter further suggests a model – a “social primacy company” – that actually prioritizes “social good” and meaningful accountability to it. This chapter thus clarifies circumstances under which existing models might be most useful and are not particularly useful, especially as investors, entrepreneurs, employees, regulators, and others pursue shared, common understandings about purposes, priorities, and accountability.
本章表明,社会商业模式并没有以以下方式将“社会公益”的责任置于其他目的之上:(a)最好地防止业主改变主意或新业主进入不同的优先事项;(b)在不同的时间和环境下实现可靠的问责。本章进一步提出了一种模式——“社会优先公司”——它实际上优先考虑“社会利益”,并对其承担有意义的责任。因此,本章阐明了现有模式在哪些情况下可能是最有用的,而不是特别有用,特别是当投资者、企业家、雇员、监管机构和其他人追求对目的、优先事项和责任的共同理解时。
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引用次数: 2
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Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series
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