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Is There a Stochastic Non-fundamental Trend in Korean Stock Price?: Inference under Transformed Error Correction Model 韩国股价是否存在随机的非基本趋势?:变换误差修正模型下的推理
Pub Date : 2013-05-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.2.107
Yun-Yeong kim
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引用次数: 1
Support System over the Lifecycle: A Cross-Country Comparison 生命周期内的支持系统:一个跨国比较
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.1.33
이상협
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions and Inducements and Implications for Policies towards North Korea Based on Theoretical Applications from Prospect Theory 基于前景理论的对朝经济制裁与诱导的有效性分析及对朝政策的启示
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.1.1
Park, Jiyoun, 조동호
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引用次数: 0
Plea Bargaining as a Mean to Maximum Sentence 辩诉交易是获得最高刑期的手段
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.1.137
김정욱
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引用次数: 1
The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea during the Global Financial Crisis 全球金融危机中韩国财政政策的有效性
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2012.34.4.27
Kim Seongtae
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引用次数: 0
Countercyclical Capital Buffer and Monetary Policy 逆周期资本缓冲与货币政策
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2012.34.4.69
B. Yoo, Kyoosung Jo
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引用次数: 0
Structural Change and Green Growth in Korea, 1980~2020 1980~2020年韩国经济结构变化与绿色增长
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2012.34.4.1
김용진
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引用次数: 0
Trend/Cycle Decomposition Using DSGE Models 使用DSGE模型进行趋势/周期分解
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2012.34.4.117
Young-Soon Hwang
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引用次数: 0
Korean National Income Based on a Chain Index: 1953~2010 基于连锁指数的韩国国民收入:1953~2010年
Pub Date : 2012-08-01 DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2012.34.3.187
박창귀
Korea’s national income statistics have been compiled by the Bank of Korea since 1953. However, there is a break in the time series. The current time series (1970 onward) is based on the ‘1993 SNA (System of National Accounts)’ suggested by the UN, and the previous time series (1953~1970) was based on the ‘1953 SNA’. The difference between the previous and current time series is 4.8% in 1970 when the two series overlap. The difference is even greater in terms of comparisons across industries. In addition, it has now become even more difficult to connect the current and the previous time series because, in 2009, the Bank of Korea introduced a chain weighted method for calculating the current time series (1970 onward). Under the chain weighted method, the time series underwent substantial modification; for instance, the economic growth rate during 1970~2005 is 0.9%p higher than the rate under the general method. This paper applies chain weighted values and the ‘1993 SNA’ to the previous time series (1953~1970) by utilizing various national account manuals published by the UN and previous Korean input-output tables in order to calculate a long term time series from 1953 to 2010 based on the same criteria as the current time series (1970 onward). In the revised time series, it appears that 1953 GDP at current basic prices is 3.5% higher and the growth rate for the period of 1953~1970 is 1.5%p higher each year than under the previous time series. Under the revised time series the size of the Korean economy as of 2010 is 50-fold bigger than that of 1953. In terms of industries, manufacturing and SOC show significant expansion whereas the extent of that of the service industry is relatively small. 우리나라 국민소득 통계는 한국은행에 의해 1953년부터 공식적으로 발표되고 있지만 UN이 제시한 매뉴얼인「1993 SNA」에 의해 작성된 1970년 이후의 현행 계열과「1953 SNA」에 의해 작성된 1953∼70년의 구계열로 시계열이 단절되어 있다. 더구나 2009년에 한국은행이 1970년 이후 현행 계열에 연쇄가중법을 도입하면서 고정가중법에 의한 기존의 시계열과 더 큰 차이를 보이게 되었다. 본고에서는 UN이 발표한 각종 국민계정 매뉴얼, 우리나라의 과거 산업연관표 등을 활용하여 1953년부터 1970년까지의 구계열에도 포괄범위를 일치시키고 연쇄가중치를 적용하여 1953년 부터 2010년까지의 장기 시계열을 일관된 기준으로 구해 보았다. 수정 계열은 구계열에 비해 1953년 경상 기초가격 GDP가 3.5% 높아졌고 성장률은 1953∼ 70년 중 평균 1.5%p 상승한 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 수정 계열을 이용하여 지난 60년간의 우리 경제 변화상을 살펴본 결과 경제규모가 50배 이상 커진 것으로 나타났다. 산업별로는 제조업 및 SOC 산업은 크게 확대된 반면 서비스업은 상대적으로 확대 폭이 작았다.
韩国的国民收入统计从1953年开始由韩国银行编制。然而,在时间序列中有一个中断。当前的时间序列(1970年以后)基于联合国建议的“1993 SNA(国民核算体系)”,之前的时间序列(1953~1970年)基于“1953 SNA”。1970年,当两个时间序列重叠时,前一个时间序列与当前时间序列的差异为4.8%。在跨行业的比较中,差异甚至更大。此外,由于2009年韩国银行引入了一种链加权方法来计算当前时间序列(1970年以后),现在将当前时间序列与以前的时间序列联系起来变得更加困难。在链加权法下,时间序列进行了大量修正;例如,1970~2005年的经济增长率比一般方法下的增长率高0.9%p。本文利用联合国出版的各种国民账户手册和以前的韩国投入产出表,将链加权值和“1993 SNA”应用于以前的时间序列(1953~1970),以便根据与当前时间序列(1970年以后)相同的标准计算1953年至2010年的长期时间序列。在修正后的时间序列中,按当前基本价格计算的1953年GDP似乎比以前的时间序列每年高出3.5%,1953~1970年期间的增长率每年高出1.5%。根据修正后的时间序列,2010年韩国的经济规模是1953年的50倍。从行业来看,制造业和SOC的扩张明显,而服务业的扩张程度相对较小。우리나라국민소득통계는한국은행에의해1953년부터공식적으로발표되고있지만联合国이제시한매뉴얼인“1993”系统网络体系结构(SNA)에의해작성된1970년이후의현행계열과“1953”系统网络体系结构(SNA)에의해작성된1953∼70년의구계열로시계열이단절되어있다。2009년더구나에한국은행이1970년이후현행계열에연쇄가중법을도입하면서고정가중법에의한기존의시계열과더큰차이를보이게되었다。본고에서는联合国이발표한각종국민계정매뉴얼,우리나라의과거산업연관표등을활용하여1953년부터1970년까지의구계열에도포괄범위를일치시키고연쇄가중치를적용하여1953년부터2010년까지의장기시계열을일관된기준으로구해보았다。수정계열은구계열에비해1953년경상기초가가격GDP 3.5%높아졌고성장률은1953∼70년중평균1.5% p상승한것으로나타났다。한편,수정계열을이용하여지난60년간의우리경제변화상을살펴본결과경제규모50배가이상커진것으로나타났다。산업별로는제조업및SOC산업은크게확대된반면서비스업은상대적으로확대폭이작았다。
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引用次数: 0
Performance of Korean State-owned Enterprises Following Executive Turnover and Executive Resignation During the Term of Office 韩国国有企业高管离职和离职后的绩效分析
Pub Date : 2012-08-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2012.34.3.95
Seungwon Yu, Suhee Kim
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引用次数: 0
期刊
KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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