KDI Journal of Economic Policy最新文献

英文中文

Declines in Exchange Rate Pass-through to Export Prices in Korea 汇率对韩国出口价格的传导下降

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2009.31.2.235

이항용, 김현욱

引用次数: 2

조세,재정정책이 노동시장에 미치는 영향: 동태적 일반균형분석 税收，财政政策对劳动市场的影响:动态一般均衡分析

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-12-31 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.2.185

김선빈, 장용성

본 연구의 목적은 동태적 일반균형모형(dynamic stochastic general equilibrium)을 이용하여 노동소득세의 증가가 한국경제의 노동시장 및 주요 거시경제변수에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 증가된 세수를 일반보조금으로 사용하는 경우와 근로장려금으로 사용하는 경우로 나누어 분석한다. 본 연구에서 상정하는 모형경제의 특성은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 경제주체들의 생산성차이를 명시적으로 고려한, 이질적 가계로 이루어진 거시경제모형(heterogeneous agent macroeconomy model)이다. 둘째, 노동공급의 비분할성(indivisible labor)을 가정하여 조세·재정정책의 변화에 따른 노동시장 참여 여부에 대한 선택의 변화에 중점을 두어 정책의 효과를 분석한다. 셋째, 불완전 금융시장(incomplete markets)을 가정하여 개별 근로자들의 자신의 생산성이 변함으로 발생하는 소득과 취업상태의 변화에 대해 완벽하게 대처할 수 없다. 넷째, 일반균형모형을 상정하므로 정책의 변화로 인한 거시경제변수의 변화가 개별근로자의 의사결정에 미치는 영향까지도 분석할 수 있다. 세율상승으로 증가된 세수를 모든 사람에게 동등하게 분배하는 일반보조금정책의 경우 노동소득세율의 증가는 노동공급의 인센티브를 저하시켜 기본모형경제에 비해 취업률을 1% 정도 저하시킨다. 반면, 추가적인 세수를 저소득 취업근로자에게만 지급하는 근로장려금정책의 경우, 수혜대상자들의 노동의욕은 증가하는 반면, 고소득 취업자들의 경우 근로장려금의 혜택없이 추가적인 세금부담으로 인하여 노동의욕이 감소한다. 경제 전체적으로는 기본모형에 비해 최대 2.7% 정도의 취업률 증가효과를 가진다. 그러나 근로장려금의 수혜대상이 넓어질수록 일인당 지급되는 근로장려금의 액수가 작아져서 고용증대효과는 미미해지고 세율상승으로 인한 노동의욕 감소효과가 압도하게 되어 전반적인 취업률에는 별 영향을 미치지 못하게 된다. 전반적으로 근로장려금과 같은 근로자 지원정책은 경제 전체의 취업률을 유효하게 증대시킬 수 있음을 보여준다. 이는 최근 한국경제가 직면한 가장 심각한 경제·사회 문제 중의 하나인 저출산과 인구고령화 등으로 인한 노동공급 감소에 대처하는 유효한 정책대안으로 근로장려금정책을 이용할 수도 있음을 보여준다.

本研究的目的是利用动态一般均衡模型(dynamic stochastic general equilibrium)分析劳动所得税的增加对韩国经济劳动市场及主要宏观经济变数产生的影响。为此，将增加的税收分为一般补助金和劳动奖金两种情况进行分析。本研究所假设的模型经济的特性是:第一，明确考虑经济主体的生产性差异，由不同性质的家庭组成的宏观经济模型(heterogeneous agent macroeconomy model)。第二，假设劳动供给的非分割性(indivisible labor)，根据税收、财政政策的变化，将重点放在是否参与劳动市场的选择变化上，分析政策的效果。第三，假设不完全金融市场(incomplete markets)，不能完全应对因个别劳动者自身生产效率的变化而产生的收入和就业状态的变化。第四，由于假设一般均衡模型，还可以分析因政策变化引起的宏观经济变数的变化对个别劳动者的决策产生的影响。以将税率上升而增加的税收平等分配给所有人的一般补助金政策为例，劳动所得税率的增加降低了劳动供给的奖励，就业率比基本模型经济低1%左右。与此相反，只向低收入就业劳动者支付追加税收的劳动奖金政策，受惠者的劳动欲望增加，而高收入就业者则在没有劳动奖金优惠的情况下，因追加的税金负担而减少劳动欲望。从整体经济情况看，与基本模式相比，就业率最多增加2.7%。但是，劳动奖金的受惠对象越广，人均支付的劳动奖金数额就越小，增加雇佣的效果就越小，税率上升引起的劳动欲望减少效果就越明显，对整体就业率没有多大影响。从整体上看，劳动奖金等对劳动者的支援政策可以有效地增加整个经济的就业率。这表明，作为应对最近韩国经济面临的最严重的经济、社会问题之一低出生率和人口老龄化等导致劳动供给减少的有效对策，可以利用劳动奖金政策。

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引用次数: 5

The Effect of the Degree of Competition of the Hospital Market Regions on Clinic's Rate of Antibiotics Prescription 医院市场区域竞争程度对临床抗生素处方率的影响

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.2.129

C. Jo, J. Lim, Soo Yeon Lee

引用次数: 7

A Re-evaluation of Housing Wealth Effect in Korea 韩国住宅财富效应的再评价

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2008.30.2.1

Jan R. Kim, Hangyong Lee

This paper attempts to re-evaluate the size of housing wealth effect in Korea. Our focus is on the size of ‘genuine’ housing wealth effect, i.e., the response of consumption spending by home-owners to the changes in housing wealth. Two issues show up while we estimate the ‘genuine’ wealth effects using aggregate time series data: the issues around home ownership and proper measure of consumption. We first argue that it is more appropriate to use non-housing consumption, because housing consumption is in large part not of the choice of home owners but the imputed rents they do not actually choose to pay. We then proceed to address the issue of home ownership, by examining how much to revise the estimates of housing wealth effect obtained from aggregate non-housing consumption data.

本文试图重新评估韩国住房财富效应的规模。我们的重点是“真正的”住房财富效应的大小，即房主的消费支出对住房财富变化的反应。当我们使用总时间序列数据估计“真正的”财富效应时，出现了两个问题:住房所有权问题和适当的消费衡量标准。我们首先认为，使用非住房消费更合适，因为住房消费在很大程度上不是房主的选择，而是他们实际上没有选择支付的估算租金。然后，我们通过检查从总体非住房消费数据中获得的住房财富效应估计需要修改多少来解决住房所有权问题。

引用次数: 1

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System 现收现付公共养老金制度的宏观经济后果

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.2.225

Park Chang Gyun, 허석균

We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation. 본 연구는 간단한 일반균형 중첩세대모 형을 사용하여 공적연금의 거시경제적 영 향에 대한 정성적(qualitative) 분석 결과 를 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이는 분 석적인(analytical) 방법으로 균형을 찾고 그 성질을 탐구하는 것이 불가능하여 다 양한 형태의 수치 분석적 기법을 동원하 는 기존 선행연구들이 제시하고 있는 정 량적(quantitative) 분석의 결과를 이론적 으로 해석할 수 있는 기제를 마련한다는 차원에서 의미를 가지는 것으로 평가된다. 본 연구는 우선 논의의 단순화를 위해 확 정급여(def ined benef i t )형 부과방식 (pay-as-you-go) 공적연금체제하의

我们用一个简单的世代重叠模型分析了现收现付(PAYGO)公共养老金制度的宏观经济后果。与现有大量文献提供基于模拟研究的定量结果相反，我们采取了另一种途径，即采用高度简化的框架来寻找可定性处理的分析结果。我们的研究结果的主要贡献在于为解释大规模一般平衡模型模拟研究所提供的各种定量结果提供了良好的理论基础。我们提出了一个简单的世代重叠模型，以固定收益(DB) PAYGO公共养老金制度为基准案例，并利用图形说明推导出分析均衡解。我们还讨论了将固定缴款(DC)公共养老金制度纳入基本框架所需的基准模型的修改。比较静力学分析提供了三个重要的启示;首先，现收现付的公共养老金的引入和扩大，无论是DB还是DC，导致较低的资本积累水平和较高的风险资产预期收益率。其次，人口老龄化的进程伴随着资本存量的减少，这是由于风险资产的需求和供给都在减少。此外，随着人口老龄化速度的加快(减速)，风险资产的风险溢价增加(降低)，资产市场出现所谓“大崩溃”的可能性虽然不高，但也不能排除。第三，从DB PAYGO转向DC PAYGO很可能会导致资本存量降低，风险资产的预期回报率提高，这主要是因为年轻一代将DC PAYGO养老金视为与市场上交易的风险资产竞争的另一种风险资产。这一理论预测与实证文献中一个牢固确立的命题不谋而合，即目前占主导地位的公共养老金制度有排挤私人资本积累的趋势。본연구는간단한일반균형중첩세대모형을사용하여공적연금의거시경제적영향에대한정성적(定性)분석결과를제시하는것을목적으로한다。이는분석적인(分析)방법으로균형을찾고그성질을탐구하는것이불가능하여다양한형태의수치분석적기법을동원하는기존선행연구들이제시하고있는정량적(定量)분석의결과를이론적으로해석할수있는기제를마련한다는차원에서의미를가지는것으로평가된다。본연구는우선논의의단순화를위해확정급여(def独立董事benef我t)형부과방식(现收现付制)공적연금체제하의

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引用次数: 0

Effects of Private Insurance on Medical Expenditure 民营保险对医疗支出的影响

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.2.99

윤희숙

引用次数: 10

경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석 经济危机后韩国经济的增长:增长会计及增长回归分析

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-06-30 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.1.33

Chinhee Hahn, Sukha Shin

This book brings together studies conducted by researchers in East Asian countries who seek to better understand the impact of China’s rise and the consequent policy challenges.

这本书汇集了东亚国家研究人员的研究成果，这些研究人员试图更好地理解中国崛起的影响以及随之而来的政策挑战。

引用次数: 0

A Study on the Optimal EITC Program 最优EITC方案研究

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.1.131

유한욱

引用次数: 0

Impacts of Increasing Volatility of Profitability on Investment Behavior 盈利能力波动性增大对投资行为的影响

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.1.1

임경묵

引用次数: 3

대공황에 대한 고등학교 사회과 교과서 서술의 문제점과 개선방안 高中社会科教科书叙述大萧条的问题和改善方案

KDI Journal of Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2008.30.1.171

김두얼

The Great Depression is one of the most important economic incidents in the twentieth century. A significant and long-lasting impact of this event is the rise of the government intervention to the economy. Under the catastrophic downturn of the economic condition worldwide, people required their government to play an active role for economic recovery, and this mentalite prolonged even after the Second World War. Social science textbooks taught at Korean high schools mostly referred to the Great Depression for explaining the reason of government intervention in economy. However, the mainstream view commonly found in the textbooks provides a misleading theological interpretation. It argues that inherent flaws of the market economy causes over-production/under-consumption, and that this mismatch ends up with economic crisis. The chaotic situation was resolved by substitution of the governments for the market, and the New Deal was introduced as the monumental example (‘laissez-faire economy→over-production→the Great Depression→government intervention→economic recovery’). Based on economic historians’ researches for past three decades, I argue that this mainstream view commits the fallacy of ex-post justification. Unlike what the mainstream view claims, the Great Depression was neither the result of the ‘market failure’, nor the recovery from the Great Depression but was due to successful government policies. For substantiating this claim, I suggest three points. First, blaming the weakness or instability of the market economy as the cause of the Great Depression is groundless. Unlike what the textbooks describe, the rise of the U.S. stock price during the 1920s cannot be said as a bubble, and there was no sign of under-consumption during the 1920s. On the contrary, a new consensus emerging from the 1980s among economic historians illustrates that the Great Depression was originated from ‘the government failure’ rather than from the ‘market failure’. Policymakers of European countries tried to return to the gold standard regime before the First World War, but discrepancies between this policy and the reality made the world economy vulnerable. Second, the mainstream view identifies the New Deal as Keynesian interventionism and glorifies it for saving the U.S. economy from the crisis. However, this argument is not true. The New Deal was not Keynesian at all. What the U.S. government actually tried was not macroeconomic stabilization but price and quantity control. In addition, New Deal did not brought about economic recovery that people generally believe. Even after the New Deal, industrial production or employment level remained quite low until the late 1930s. Lastly, studies on individual New Deal policies show that they did not work as they were intended. For example, the National Industrial Recovery Act increased unemployment, and the Agricultural Adjustment Act expelled tenants from their land. Third, the mainstream view characterizes the economic

大萧条是20世纪最重要的经济事件之一。这一事件的一个重大而持久的影响是政府对经济干预的增加。在全球经济形势灾难性下滑的情况下，人们要求政府在经济复苏中发挥积极作用，这种心态即使在第二次世界大战之后也一直存在。韩国高中的社会科学教科书在解释政府干预经济的原因时，大部分都提到了大萧条。然而，教科书中常见的主流观点提供了一种误导性的神学解释。它认为，市场经济的内在缺陷导致了生产过剩/消费不足，这种不匹配最终导致了经济危机。混乱的局面通过政府取代市场得到了解决，新政作为一个具有里程碑意义的例子被引入(“自由放任经济→生产过剩→大萧条→政府干预→经济复苏”)。根据过去三十年来经济史学家的研究，我认为这种主流观点犯了事后辩护的谬误。与主流观点不同，大萧条既不是“市场失灵”的结果，也不是从大萧条中复苏的结果，而是由于成功的政府政策。为了证实这一说法，我提出三点建议。首先，将大萧条的原因归咎于市场经济的疲软或不稳定是毫无根据的。与教科书所描述的不同，20世纪20年代美国股票价格的上涨不能说是泡沫，而且20世纪20年代也没有出现消费不足的迹象。相反，从20世纪80年代开始，经济历史学家们形成了一种新的共识，认为大萧条源于“政府失灵”，而不是“市场失灵”。第一次世界大战前，欧洲国家的政策制定者试图恢复金本位制度，但这一政策与现实之间的差异使世界经济变得脆弱。其次，主流观点将新政视为凯恩斯主义的干预主义，并将其从危机中拯救美国经济而予以颂扬。然而，这个论点是不正确的。新政根本不是凯恩斯主义。美国政府实际上尝试的不是宏观经济的稳定，而是价格和数量的控制。此外，新政并没有像人们普遍认为的那样带来经济复苏。即使在新政之后，工业生产或就业水平一直很低，直到20世纪30年代末。最后，对个别新政政策的研究表明，这些政策并没有达到预期的效果。例如，《全国工业复苏法案》增加了失业率，《农业调整法案》把佃户赶出了自己的土地。第三，主流观点将大萧条前的经济秩序描述为自由放任主义，并倾向于将工业革命时期的一切弊病归咎于不受控制的市场经济。然而，历史研究表明，工业革命时期的各种经济和社会问题，如不平等问题、童工问题、环境问题等，不能简单地归结为市场经济的问题。总之，高中教科书中所有这些问题的补救办法不是用大萧条作为一个例子来展示市场经济的弱点。大萧条应该被简单地描述为一种历史势头，它开启了政府干预的增长。此次高中教科书改革对于提高对经济和历史的正确认识是必要的。

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