首页 > 最新文献

PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)最新文献

英文 中文
Russian Industry in H2 2017: Hovering between Pessimism and Optimism 2017年下半年俄罗斯工业:徘徊在悲观与乐观之间
Pub Date : 2018-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3102941
S. Tsukhlo
The second half of 2017 was a tough period for Russian enterprises; in particular, in the middle of the year industrial enterprises saw the demand for their products expand at slower pace. In November, however, a representative indicator set of Gaidar Institute’s business survey statistics exhibited positive changes in key indicators. Demand and output, including forecasts, and finished goods inventory were led by upward dynamics that continued into December.
2017年下半年是俄罗斯企业的艰难时期;特别是在年中,工业企业的产品需求增长速度放缓。然而,11月,盖达尔研究所商业调查统计数据的一组代表性指标显示,关键指标发生了积极变化。需求和产出(包括预测)以及产成品库存的上升势头持续到了12月。
{"title":"Russian Industry in H2 2017: Hovering between Pessimism and Optimism","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3102941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3102941","url":null,"abstract":"The second half of 2017 was a tough period for Russian enterprises; in particular, in the middle of the year industrial enterprises saw the demand for their products expand at slower pace. In November, however, a representative indicator set of Gaidar Institute’s business survey statistics exhibited positive changes in key indicators. Demand and output, including forecasts, and finished goods inventory were led by upward dynamics that continued into December.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128045645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe 欧洲宏观经济波动的颗粒起源
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484324806.001
C. Ebeke, Kodjovi M. Eklou
This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.
本文研究了欧洲总经济波动的微观经济根源。它考察了前100大公司的特殊冲击(颗粒冲击)在解释总体宏观经济波动方面的相关性。本文还评估了大企业对中小企业的溢出效应强度。利用覆盖超过1400万家企业和8个欧洲国家(奥地利、比利时、芬兰、法国、德国、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙)的企业层面数据,我们发现:(i)样本中40%的GDP差异可以用大型企业的特质冲击来解释;(二)大公司受到的积极的细粒度冲击会溢出到国内中小企业的产出,特别是如果中小企业的资产负债表健康,并且中小企业属于服务业和制造业。
{"title":"The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe","authors":"C. Ebeke, Kodjovi M. Eklou","doi":"10.5089/9781484324806.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324806.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"260 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117112140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Collective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia's Great Reforms 专制政体中的集体行动与代表:来自俄罗斯大改革的证据
Pub Date : 2017-09-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2851111
Paul Castañeda Dower, E. Finkel, Scott Gehlbach, Steven Nafziger
We explore the relationship between capacity for collective action and representation in autocracies with data from Imperial Russia. Our primary empirical exercise relates peasant representation in new institutions of local self-government to the frequency of peasant unrest in the decade prior to reform. To correct for measurement error in the unrest data and other sources of endogeneity, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in two determinants of peasant unrest: the historical incidence of serfdom and religious polarization. We find that peasants were granted less representation in districts with more frequent unrest in preceding years — a relationship consistent with the Acemoglu-Robinson model of political transitions and inconsistent with numerous other theories of institutional change. At the same time, we observe patterns of redistribution in subsequent years that are inconsistent with the commitment mechanism central to the Acemoglu-Robinson model. Building on these results, we discuss possible directions for future theoretical work.
我们用来自俄罗斯帝国的数据探讨了集体行动能力与专制国家代表权之间的关系。我们的主要实证研究将农民在新的地方自治机构中的代表性与改革前十年农民动乱的频率联系起来。为了纠正动乱数据中的测量误差和其他内生性来源,我们利用农民动乱的两个决定因素的特殊变化:农奴制和宗教两极分化的历史发生率。我们发现,在前几年动乱更频繁的地区,农民获得的代表权更少——这种关系与阿塞莫格鲁-罗宾逊的政治转型模型一致,与许多其他制度变迁理论不一致。与此同时,我们观察到随后几年的再分配模式与Acemoglu-Robinson模型的核心承诺机制不一致。基于这些结果,我们讨论了未来理论工作的可能方向。
{"title":"Collective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia's Great Reforms","authors":"Paul Castañeda Dower, E. Finkel, Scott Gehlbach, Steven Nafziger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2851111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2851111","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the relationship between capacity for collective action and representation in autocracies with data from Imperial Russia. Our primary empirical exercise relates peasant representation in new institutions of local self-government to the frequency of peasant unrest in the decade prior to reform. To correct for measurement error in the unrest data and other sources of endogeneity, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in two determinants of peasant unrest: the historical incidence of serfdom and religious polarization. We find that peasants were granted less representation in districts with more frequent unrest in preceding years — a relationship consistent with the Acemoglu-Robinson model of political transitions and inconsistent with numerous other theories of institutional change. At the same time, we observe patterns of redistribution in subsequent years that are inconsistent with the commitment mechanism central to the Acemoglu-Robinson model. Building on these results, we discuss possible directions for future theoretical work.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116538513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household Sector: Income, Consumer and Labor Markets 家庭部门:收入、消费者和劳动力市场
Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2998549
E. Avraamova, A. Burdyak, E. Grishina, D. Loginov, V. Lyashok, T. Maleva, N. Mkrtchyan, A. Polyakova, Y. Florinskaya
Household real disposable income and real pensions decelerated by 6.1% and 2.5% in December 2016 in comparison with the same period of 2015 (Fig. 1). In contrast, real wage went up by 2.4% in December 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year.
与2015年同期相比,2016年12月的家庭实际可支配收入和实际养老金分别下降了6.1%和2.5%(图1)。相比之下,2016年12月的实际工资较上年同期增长了2.4%。
{"title":"Household Sector: Income, Consumer and Labor Markets","authors":"E. Avraamova, A. Burdyak, E. Grishina, D. Loginov, V. Lyashok, T. Maleva, N. Mkrtchyan, A. Polyakova, Y. Florinskaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2998549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998549","url":null,"abstract":"Household real disposable income and real pensions decelerated by 6.1% and 2.5% in December 2016 in comparison with the same period of 2015 (Fig. 1). In contrast, real wage went up by 2.4% in December 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131937257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding Sovereign Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries 了解欧元区国家的主权评级变动
Pub Date : 2017-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2911004
J. Br̊uha, M. Karber, Beatrice Pierluigi, Ralph Setzer
This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody JEL Classification: C25, G24, H63, H68
本文研究了主权评级与宏观经济基本面之间的联系,这些国家在欧元区主权债务危机中记录了评级下调。我们运用一种基于贝叶斯有序概率模型的详细计量经济学估计技术,来理解评级机构的决策是如何被经济发展所解释的。估计模型通过使用少量经济和制度变量再现历史评级,这些变量似乎有效地总结了穆迪JEL分类使用的大量标准:C25, G24, H63, H68
{"title":"Understanding Sovereign Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries","authors":"J. Br̊uha, M. Karber, Beatrice Pierluigi, Ralph Setzer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2911004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2911004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody JEL Classification: C25, G24, H63, H68","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"325 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115762014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
The Resilience of ‘Bad Ideas’ in Eurozone Crisis Discourse, Even as Rival Ideas Inform Changing Practices 欧元区危机话语中“坏想法”的弹性,即使是竞争的想法通知了不断变化的实践
Pub Date : 2016-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2907701
V. Schmidt
In the Eurozone Crisis, ‘bad ideas’ were initially resilient not just in the discourse but also in practice, as neo-liberal ideas focused on austerity and structural reform were embedded in the legislative packages and intergovernmental pacts (Six Pack, Two Pack, and Fiscal Compact). Later, however, the bad ideas continued to be resilient in the discourse while the practices incrementally changed for the better as rival ideas gain influence. This paper explains why such discursive resilience through an empirical examination of EU political actors’ discourse first in their initial response to the crisis that reinforced the ‘stability’ rules and then in their shift first to a discourse of growth and then of flexibility, all the while insisting that they were sticking by the rules. The paper argues, in essence, that leaders chose to reinterpret the rules ‘by stealth,’ that is, by not admitting to their national constituencies—or even to one another—that their ideas weren’t working, and that the rules therefore needed to change. Theoretically, the paper explains this according to five possible reasons for the resilience of neo-liberal ideas, including the adaptability of the concepts, their lack of actual implementation, their strength in the discourse compared to alternatives, the role of interests in benefiting from those ideas, and their embedding in institutions.
在欧元区危机中,“坏主意”最初不仅在话语中有弹性,而且在实践中也有弹性,因为专注于紧缩和结构改革的新自由主义思想被纳入立法方案和政府间协议(六包、两包和财政契约)。然而,后来,糟糕的想法在话语中继续保持弹性,而随着竞争对手的想法获得影响力,实践逐渐变得更好。本文通过对欧盟政治行为者话语的实证研究,首先解释了这种话语弹性的原因,首先是他们对危机的最初反应,加强了“稳定”规则,然后是他们首先转向增长的话语,然后是灵活性的话语,同时坚持他们遵守规则。这篇论文认为,从本质上讲,领导人选择“秘密地”重新解释这些规则,也就是说,他们不向本国选民承认——甚至不向彼此承认——他们的想法行不通,因此需要改变这些规则。从理论上讲,本文根据新自由主义思想的弹性的五个可能原因来解释这一点,包括概念的适应性,它们缺乏实际实施,与替代方案相比,它们在话语中的力量,利益在受益于这些思想中的作用,以及它们在制度中的嵌入。
{"title":"The Resilience of ‘Bad Ideas’ in Eurozone Crisis Discourse, Even as Rival Ideas Inform Changing Practices","authors":"V. Schmidt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2907701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2907701","url":null,"abstract":"In the Eurozone Crisis, ‘bad ideas’ were initially resilient not just in the discourse but also in practice, as neo-liberal ideas focused on austerity and structural reform were embedded in the legislative packages and intergovernmental pacts (Six Pack, Two Pack, and Fiscal Compact). Later, however, the bad ideas continued to be resilient in the discourse while the practices incrementally changed for the better as rival ideas gain influence. This paper explains why such discursive resilience through an empirical examination of EU political actors’ discourse first in their initial response to the crisis that reinforced the ‘stability’ rules and then in their shift first to a discourse of growth and then of flexibility, all the while insisting that they were sticking by the rules. The paper argues, in essence, that leaders chose to reinterpret the rules ‘by stealth,’ that is, by not admitting to their national constituencies—or even to one another—that their ideas weren’t working, and that the rules therefore needed to change. Theoretically, the paper explains this according to five possible reasons for the resilience of neo-liberal ideas, including the adaptability of the concepts, their lack of actual implementation, their strength in the discourse compared to alternatives, the role of interests in benefiting from those ideas, and their embedding in institutions.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121886498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Policy Implementation in ASEAN and the European Union: The Problem of Asymmetric Compliance 东盟和欧盟的政策执行:不对称合规问题
Pub Date : 2015-10-30 DOI: 10.1017/cbo9781316340653.009
Giulio Napolitano
The paper highlights the problem of asymmetric compliance in the context of international regulatory cooperation, with specific reference to the case of ASEAN. The asymmetry may be across countries, when some of the stipulating parties are compliant and others are not; and between different policies covered by the same ‘multi-purpose’ treaty. Administrative capacity may differ from one country to another and from one policy to another. Countries have different administrative traditions and performance. However, bureaucratic quality is not homogeneous, and varies in the different countries. Furthermore, strategies of compliance and non-compliance in a multi-party and multi-game setting are also more complex. Some countries might be tempted to free-ride on other countries loyal cooperation; or to adopt a strategy of selective cooperation according to the kind of policy. Moreover, private stakeholders influence in different ways implementation and compliance; but not with the same intensity in all policies. Their pressure is supposed to be stronger in market areas, where they can benefit from the removal of national barriers, than in non-market ones.In such a context, the existence of a truly supranational organization with an administrative infrastructure might limit agency losses: partly because it can directly perform some implementation tasks; and partly because it is better equipped to monitor effective compliance by member states and national administrations. Promoting administrative convergence and regulating national administrations can reduce ineffective implementation and non-compliance too. This is why that the role of the ASEAN Secretariat and other supranational bodies could be usefully extended in a pragmatic way, without any formal change of the ASEAN Charter. Specific agreements and directives can delegate implementation and supervisory tasks to the ASEAN Secretariat or other instrumental bodies, on a case by case basis. The strengthening of a supranational administrative system could take place without any general and explicit rejection of the ‘ASEAN way’ to common policy implementation. In principle, member states could continue to deny any conferral of general authority to the ASEAN Secretariat or other related bodies. In practice, however, they could recognize, through specific agreements, that giving limited executive and supervising powers to supranational administrations could be the best way to pursue a proper and coherent implementation of common rules and policies.
本文强调了国际监管合作背景下的不对称合规问题,并特别提到了东盟的案例。当一些规定方合规而另一些不合规时,这种不对称可能在各国之间存在;以及同一“多用途”条约所涵盖的不同政策之间的关系。行政能力可能因国家而异,因政策而异。各国有不同的行政传统和行政表现。然而,官僚主义的质量并不是同质的,在不同的国家也有所不同。此外,在多方和多博弈环境下,服从和不服从的策略也更为复杂。一些国家可能会试图搭上其他国家忠诚合作的便车;或者根据政策的种类采取选择性合作的策略。此外,私人利益相关者以不同的方式影响执行和合规;但并非所有政策的力度都相同。他们在市场领域的压力应该比在非市场领域更大,在市场领域,他们可以从国家壁垒的消除中获益。在这种情况下,拥有行政基础结构的真正超国家组织的存在可能会限制机构的损失:部分原因是它可以直接执行一些执行任务;部分原因是它更有能力监督成员国和国家行政部门的有效合规。促进行政统一和规范国家行政也可以减少执行不力和不遵守规定的情况。这就是为什么可以在不正式修改《东盟宪章》的情况下,以务实的方式有效地扩大东盟秘书处和其他超国家机构的作用。具体协定和指示可根据具体情况将执行和监督任务委托给东盟秘书处或其他工具性机构。超国家行政体系的加强可以在不普遍和明确拒绝“东盟方式”来执行共同政策的情况下进行。原则上,成员国可以继续拒绝向东盟秘书处或其他有关机构授予任何一般权力。但是,在实践中,它们可以通过具体协定认识到,给予超国家行政当局有限的行政和监督权力可能是谋求适当和连贯地执行共同规则和政策的最佳办法。
{"title":"Policy Implementation in ASEAN and the European Union: The Problem of Asymmetric Compliance","authors":"Giulio Napolitano","doi":"10.1017/cbo9781316340653.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781316340653.009","url":null,"abstract":"The paper highlights the problem of asymmetric compliance in the context of international regulatory cooperation, with specific reference to the case of ASEAN. The asymmetry may be across countries, when some of the stipulating parties are compliant and others are not; and between different policies covered by the same ‘multi-purpose’ treaty. Administrative capacity may differ from one country to another and from one policy to another. Countries have different administrative traditions and performance. However, bureaucratic quality is not homogeneous, and varies in the different countries. Furthermore, strategies of compliance and non-compliance in a multi-party and multi-game setting are also more complex. Some countries might be tempted to free-ride on other countries loyal cooperation; or to adopt a strategy of selective cooperation according to the kind of policy. Moreover, private stakeholders influence in different ways implementation and compliance; but not with the same intensity in all policies. Their pressure is supposed to be stronger in market areas, where they can benefit from the removal of national barriers, than in non-market ones.In such a context, the existence of a truly supranational organization with an administrative infrastructure might limit agency losses: partly because it can directly perform some implementation tasks; and partly because it is better equipped to monitor effective compliance by member states and national administrations. Promoting administrative convergence and regulating national administrations can reduce ineffective implementation and non-compliance too. This is why that the role of the ASEAN Secretariat and other supranational bodies could be usefully extended in a pragmatic way, without any formal change of the ASEAN Charter. Specific agreements and directives can delegate implementation and supervisory tasks to the ASEAN Secretariat or other instrumental bodies, on a case by case basis. The strengthening of a supranational administrative system could take place without any general and explicit rejection of the ‘ASEAN way’ to common policy implementation. In principle, member states could continue to deny any conferral of general authority to the ASEAN Secretariat or other related bodies. In practice, however, they could recognize, through specific agreements, that giving limited executive and supervising powers to supranational administrations could be the best way to pursue a proper and coherent implementation of common rules and policies.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123963431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Russian Real Sector of the Economy in May 2015: Factors and Trends 2015年5月俄罗斯实体经济:因素与趋势
Pub Date : 2015-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2640052
O. Izryadnova
The decline in economic growth rates in 2015 is determined by contraction in both investment and consumer demand. Fixed investment in May 2015 decreased by 7.6 % and retail turnover by 9.2% compared to May 2014. The narrowing of domestic demand increased the downtrend in industrial production. On a year-over-year basis, the manufacturing output index in May 2015 stood at 91.7% and the mineral extraction index was 99.1%.
2015年经济增长率的下降是由投资和消费需求的收缩决定的。与2014年5月相比,2015年5月固定投资下降7.6%,零售营业额下降9.2%。国内需求的收窄加剧了工业生产的下降趋势。2015年5月制造业产出指数为91.7%,矿产开采指数为99.1%。
{"title":"Russian Real Sector of the Economy in May 2015: Factors and Trends","authors":"O. Izryadnova","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2640052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2640052","url":null,"abstract":"The decline in economic growth rates in 2015 is determined by contraction in both investment and consumer demand. Fixed investment in May 2015 decreased by 7.6 % and retail turnover by 9.2% compared to May 2014. The narrowing of domestic demand increased the downtrend in industrial production. On a year-over-year basis, the manufacturing output index in May 2015 stood at 91.7% and the mineral extraction index was 99.1%.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127935119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Russian Financial Markets in May 2015 2015年5月的俄罗斯金融市场
Pub Date : 2015-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2640038
E. Gorbatikov, E. Khudko
The dynamics of the MICEX Index saw no drastic movements last month1, avaraging 1650 index points, with a 1.2% fall at month’s end. The rest of the MICEX Sector Indices, except the MICEX Telecommunications Index, de monstrated negative dynamics too. The MICEX daily average turnover kept shrinking and amounted to Rb 30.4bn. The situation in the Russian domestic corporate bond market in June was relatively normalized. The key market indicators such as the market volume and the corporate bond market index saw moderately positive dynamics; investors’ activity remained high in the primary and secondary markets (particularly in the fi nancial segment). Growth in the weighted average yield rate of bond issuances was an adverse trend. The problem with the failure to meet obligations to bondholders is still there.
MICEX指数上个月没有剧烈变动,平均为1650点,月末下跌1.2%。除MICEX电信指数外,其他MICEX行业指数也呈现出负面动态。MICEX日均成交量持续萎缩,为304亿雷亚尔。6月份俄罗斯国内公司债市场情况相对正常化。市场成交量、公司债市场指数等关键市场指标呈现适度积极态势;投资者在一级和二级市场(尤其是金融领域)的活跃度依然很高。债券发行加权平均收益率呈逆势增长。未能履行对债券持有人义务的问题仍然存在。
{"title":"Russian Financial Markets in May 2015","authors":"E. Gorbatikov, E. Khudko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2640038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2640038","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of the MICEX Index saw no drastic movements last month1, avaraging 1650 index points, with a 1.2% fall at month’s end. The rest of the MICEX Sector Indices, except the MICEX Telecommunications Index, de monstrated negative dynamics too. The MICEX daily average turnover kept shrinking and amounted to Rb 30.4bn. The situation in the Russian domestic corporate bond market in June was relatively normalized. The key market indicators such as the market volume and the corporate bond market index saw moderately positive dynamics; investors’ activity remained high in the primary and secondary markets (particularly in the fi nancial segment). Growth in the weighted average yield rate of bond issuances was an adverse trend. The problem with the failure to meet obligations to bondholders is still there.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114388632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Political and Economic Results of May 2015 2015年5月的政治经济结果
Pub Date : 2015-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2620683
S. Zhavoronkov
As far as Russia is concerned, the main news of May 2015 was the celebration of the 70th anniversary of VE day. Inside Russia, this country’s victory in WW2 was celebrated with true enthusiasm on a massive scale. However, an overwhelming majority of foreign heads of state had chosen to ignore the VE day celebration in Moscow, and so it was attended by the head of state of only one major power, China. At the subsequent negotiations with the Chinese leader, Russia managed to get some fi nancing from China, but its volume amounted to just several billion USD, which clearly indicates that, at least for now, Russia cannot rely on China as an adequate substitute for international fi nancial markets. According to available information, Angela Merkel’s and John Kerry’s visits to Moscow yielded only meager results. No details leaked out, but apparently these results were limited to the parties to the talks reaffi rming their support to the current truce in Ukraine. In a separate development, United Russia came up with a proposal to move Russia’s next parliamentary elections up three months to September 2016, a shift that will relegate the electoral campaign to vacati on season. As this initiative appears to be constitutionally contradictory, its future, for the time being, remains unclear
就俄罗斯而言,2015年5月的主要新闻是胜利日70周年的庆祝活动。在俄罗斯国内,人们以真正的热情大规模庆祝这个国家在二战中的胜利。然而,绝大多数外国国家元首选择无视在莫斯科举行的胜利日庆祝活动,因此只有一个大国的国家元首出席了庆祝活动,那就是中国。在随后与中国领导人的谈判中,俄罗斯设法从中国获得了一些融资,但金额仅为数十亿美元,这清楚地表明,至少在目前,俄罗斯不能完全依赖中国作为国际金融市场的替代品。根据现有信息,安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)和约翰•克里(John Kerry)对莫斯科的访问只取得了微不足道的成果。没有任何细节泄露,但显然这些结果仅限于会谈各方重申他们对乌克兰目前休战的支持。另一方面,统一俄罗斯党提出了一项提议,将俄罗斯的下一届议会选举提前三个月至2016年9月举行,这将使竞选活动进入休假季。由于这一倡议在宪法上似乎是矛盾的,它的未来目前仍然不明朗
{"title":"The Political and Economic Results of May 2015","authors":"S. Zhavoronkov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2620683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2620683","url":null,"abstract":"As far as Russia is concerned, the main news of May 2015 was the celebration of the 70th anniversary of VE day. Inside Russia, this country’s victory in WW2 was celebrated with true enthusiasm on a massive scale. However, an overwhelming majority of foreign heads of state had chosen to ignore the VE day celebration in Moscow, and so it was attended by the head of state of only one major power, China. At the subsequent negotiations with the Chinese leader, Russia managed to get some fi nancing from China, but its volume amounted to just several billion USD, which clearly indicates that, at least for now, Russia cannot rely on China as an adequate substitute for international fi nancial markets. According to available information, Angela Merkel’s and John Kerry’s visits to Moscow yielded only meager results. No details leaked out, but apparently these results were limited to the parties to the talks reaffi rming their support to the current truce in Ukraine. In a separate development, United Russia came up with a proposal to move Russia’s next parliamentary elections up three months to September 2016, a shift that will relegate the electoral campaign to vacati on season. As this initiative appears to be constitutionally contradictory, its future, for the time being, remains unclear","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131272248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1