Stein and Yannelis (2020) (SY) study the short-term impact of the Freedman’s Savings Bank on human capital, labor market, and wealth outcomes. This short note is a response to Célérier and Tak (2021) (CT), which offers comments on SY, claiming to “empirically reject the assumptions of the study’s identification strategy” and arguing that “financial inclusion can be detrimental to minorities.” We show their claims are driven by a serious data error and by omitting data, and that their empirical tests do not evaluate the identification assumption in SY. After using an alternative matching strategy which throws out four-fifths of matches, CT present estimates with very large standard errors. We show that these estimates cannot statistically reject large effects, including many of the point estimates in SY.
Stein和Yannelis (2020) (SY)研究了弗里德曼储蓄银行对人力资本、劳动力市场和财富结果的短期影响。这篇短文是对csamlsamrier and Tak (2021) (CT)的回应，后者对SY提出了评论，声称“从经验上拒绝了该研究的识别策略的假设”，并认为“金融包容性可能对少数群体有害”。我们表明他们的主张是由严重的数据错误和省略数据驱动的，并且他们的经验检验没有评估SY中的识别假设。在使用另一种匹配策略后，丢弃了五分之四的匹配，CT给出的估计具有非常大的标准误差。我们表明，这些估计不能在统计上拒绝大的影响，包括许多点估计在SY。
{"title":"Response to Célérier and Tak (April 2021)","authors":"L. Stein, Constantine Yannelis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3893855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3893855","url":null,"abstract":"Stein and Yannelis (2020) (SY) study the short-term impact of the Freedman’s Savings Bank on human capital, labor market, and wealth outcomes. This short note is a response to Célérier and Tak (2021) (CT), which offers comments on SY, claiming to “empirically reject the assumptions of the study’s identification strategy” and arguing that “financial inclusion can be detrimental to minorities.” We show their claims are driven by a serious data error and by omitting data, and that their empirical tests do not evaluate the identification assumption in SY. After using an alternative matching strategy which throws out four-fifths of matches, CT present estimates with very large standard errors. We show that these estimates cannot statistically reject large effects, including many of the point estimates in SY.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124278244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Languages that grammatically mark the future influence the speakers’ intertemporal preferences, and thereby induce less future-oriented behavior. We predict that banks in countries with future tense marking reduce the perception of risk, and therefore they are more likely to engage in risky banking activities, leading to an increase in bank liquidity creation. We use data from 60 countries for testing such a linguistic hypothesis, and we find that banks in countries with future tense marking create higher liquidity than those in countries where speakers grammatically associate the future and the present. This is robust to using alternative measures of a country’s culture, alternative future tense reference, and several robustness checks. Our finding provides a new explanation for cross-country heterogeneity in bank output and contributes to the debate about the effect of language on economic behavior.
{"title":"Does Language Affect Bank Liquidity Creation?: A Global Cross-Country Analysis","authors":"J. Soula, Sara Yasar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3894270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3894270","url":null,"abstract":"Languages that grammatically mark the future influence the speakers’ intertemporal preferences, and thereby induce less future-oriented behavior. We predict that banks in countries with future tense marking reduce the perception of risk, and therefore they are more likely to engage in risky banking activities, leading to an increase in bank liquidity creation. We use data from 60 countries for testing such a linguistic hypothesis, and we find that banks in countries with future tense marking create higher liquidity than those in countries where speakers grammatically associate the future and the present. This is robust to using alternative measures of a country’s culture, alternative future tense reference, and several robustness checks. Our finding provides a new explanation for cross-country heterogeneity in bank output and contributes to the debate about the effect of language on economic behavior.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122143512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
German savings and cooperative banks use credit risk pooling transactions as a specific type of synthetic credit risk transfer. This paper describes the effect of pro rata credit risk pooling transactions on the granularity of these banks’ credit portfolios. The change in granularity is described analytically using general properties of concentration measures. This allows to prove independent of specific concentration measures or credit portfolio models that the granularity of a credit portfolio will increase if a bank participates in pro rata credit risk pooling with homogeneous credit risks. But simulations show that Value-at-Risk will not always decrease if a portfolio’s granularity increases, ceteris paribus. As a consequence, banks using Value-at-Risk instead of a coherent risk measure like Expected Shortfall might choose to limit their participation in credit risk pooling transactions.
德国储蓄银行和合作银行将信用风险分担交易作为一种特殊类型的综合信用风险转移。本文描述了比例信贷风险池交易对这些银行信贷组合粒度的影响。粒度的变化是用浓度测量的一般性质来解析描述的。这可以证明，独立于特定的集中度措施或信贷组合模型，如果银行参与具有同质信贷风险的按比例信贷风险池，信贷组合的粒度将增加。但模拟表明，如果投资组合的粒度增加，风险价值并不总是减少，其他条件不变。因此，使用风险价值(value - in - risk)而不是像预期缺口(Expected shortage)这样连贯的风险衡量标准的银行，可能会选择限制它们参与信贷风险汇集交易。
{"title":"Pro Rata Credit Risk Pooling Between Regional Banks: Economic Capital and Portfolio Granularity","authors":"M. Krebs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3900446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3900446","url":null,"abstract":"German savings and cooperative banks use credit risk pooling transactions as a specific type of synthetic credit risk transfer. This paper describes the effect of pro rata credit risk pooling transactions on the granularity of these banks’ credit portfolios. The change in granularity is described analytically using general properties of concentration measures. This allows to prove independent of specific concentration measures or credit portfolio models that the granularity of a credit portfolio will increase if a bank participates in pro rata credit risk pooling with homogeneous credit risks. But simulations show that Value-at-Risk will not always decrease if a portfolio’s granularity increases, ceteris paribus. As a consequence, banks using Value-at-Risk instead of a coherent risk measure like Expected Shortfall might choose to limit their participation in credit risk pooling transactions.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131449687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Sebastian Schmidt
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as rejected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.
{"title":"Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment","authors":"G. Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Sebastian Schmidt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918530","url":null,"abstract":"The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as rejected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115479301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In modern economies, most money takes the form of inside money; deposits created by commercial banks to fund credit extension. Because inside money is used as a payment instrument, doubts about the risks associated with credit extension can affect aggregate outcomes. This paper constructs and analyzes a model of risky credit extension, inside money creation, and monetary exchange. When credit extension is sufficiently risky, a positive probability of bank default arises and this affects the return characteristics of inside money. Depositors then demand a risk premium for holding inside money, which drives a wedge between bankers' funding costs and the social benefits of money creation. This wedge negatively affects credit extension, output, and welfare. A government can restore efficiency by swapping risky inside money for risk-free forms of government debt.
{"title":"Risk, Inside Money, and the Real Economy","authors":"Hugo van Buggenum","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3889461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3889461","url":null,"abstract":"In modern economies, most money takes the form of inside money; deposits created by commercial banks to fund credit extension. Because inside money is used as a payment instrument, doubts about the risks associated with credit extension can affect aggregate outcomes. This paper constructs and analyzes a model of risky credit extension, inside money creation, and monetary exchange. When credit extension is sufficiently risky, a positive probability of bank default arises and this affects the return characteristics of inside money. Depositors then demand a risk premium for holding inside money, which drives a wedge between bankers' funding costs and the social benefits of money creation. This wedge negatively affects credit extension, output, and welfare. A government can restore efficiency by swapping risky inside money for risk-free forms of government debt.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122119182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show that insurance companies have almost nonupled their investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the post-crisis period, reaching total holdings of $125B in 2019. The growth in CLOs’ investments has far outpaced that of loans and corporate bonds, and was characterized by a strong preference for mezzanine tranches rated investment grade over triple-A rated tranches. We document that these phenomena reflect a search for yield behavior. Conditional on capital charges, insurance companies invest more heavily in bonds and CLO tranches with higher yields. Preferences for CLO tranches derived from tranches’ higher yields relative to bonds with the same rating, and increased following the 2010 capital regulatory reform, resulting in insurance companies holding more than 40% of mezzanine tranches outstanding in 2019. In the process, insurance companies created the demand for the risky tranches that are critical to the CLO issuance.
{"title":"Insurance Companies and the Growth of Corporate Loans’ Securitization","authors":"Fulvia Fringuellotti, João A. C. Santos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3888548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888548","url":null,"abstract":"We show that insurance companies have almost nonupled their investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the post-crisis period, reaching total holdings of $125B in 2019. The growth in CLOs’ investments has far outpaced that of loans and corporate bonds, and was characterized by a strong preference for mezzanine tranches rated investment grade over triple-A rated tranches. We document that these phenomena reflect a search for yield behavior. Conditional on capital charges, insurance companies invest more heavily in bonds and CLO tranches with higher yields. Preferences for CLO tranches derived from tranches’ higher yields relative to bonds with the same rating, and increased following the 2010 capital regulatory reform, resulting in insurance companies holding more than 40% of mezzanine tranches outstanding in 2019. In the process, insurance companies created the demand for the risky tranches that are critical to the CLO issuance.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125431762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Mensah, Arthur Morris, Han Stice, Roger M. White
We examine how corruption influences the mortgage market. Prior research documents that corruption is most costly in cases, like home buying, where government interaction is frequent and necessary. Accordingly, after anti-corruption laws pass bank-offices both accept more mortgage applications, and offer more favorable terms (without changing future delinquency). These laws are passed largely by cities and counties, so we implement a fixed-effects structure such that our results are driven by lending decisions at the same bank office for mortgage applications across jurisdictions. We also find that the effect of these laws varies by self-reported race and gender.
{"title":"Individual Mortgage Lending, Public Corruption, Race and Gender: Evidence from Local Corruption Crack-Downs","authors":"A. Mensah, Arthur Morris, Han Stice, Roger M. White","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3888069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888069","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how corruption influences the mortgage market. Prior research documents that corruption is most costly in cases, like home buying, where government interaction is frequent and necessary. Accordingly, after anti-corruption laws pass bank-offices both accept more mortgage applications, and offer more favorable terms (without changing future delinquency). These laws are passed largely by cities and counties, so we implement a fixed-effects structure such that our results are driven by lending decisions at the same bank office for mortgage applications across jurisdictions. We also find that the effect of these laws varies by self-reported race and gender.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131022865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereafter GCC) countries by introducing a new composite financial stability index to monitor the financial vulnerabilities and crisis periods. To this end, the study estimated monetary policy reaction functions for each of the GCC countries (namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) over the period from 2006-Q4 to 2020-Q2. Empirical findings indicate that monetary authorities' response to the deviation of inflation from their target level, output gap, or exchange rate movement differ in terms of magnitude, sign, and significance across the GCC countries. The results further explain that monetary authorities react significantly to negative or positive shocks in financial stability, but their reaction is different in the short-run or long run. Overall, an augmented Taylor rule including financial stability as an additional monetary policy objective is more appropriate for the GCC countries.
{"title":"Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Reaction Evidence from the GCC Countries","authors":"Ahmed H. Elsayed, Nader Naifar, S. Nasreen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3915669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3915669","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereafter GCC) countries by introducing a new composite financial stability index to monitor the financial vulnerabilities and crisis periods. To this end, the study estimated monetary policy reaction functions for each of the GCC countries (namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) over the period from 2006-Q4 to 2020-Q2. Empirical findings indicate that monetary authorities' response to the deviation of inflation from their target level, output gap, or exchange rate movement differ in terms of magnitude, sign, and significance across the GCC countries. The results further explain that monetary authorities react significantly to negative or positive shocks in financial stability, but their reaction is different in the short-run or long run. Overall, an augmented Taylor rule including financial stability as an additional monetary policy objective is more appropriate for the GCC countries.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123958382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antonio Accetturo, G. Barboni, M. Cascarano, Emilia Garcia-Appendini
We use credit registry data from the population of loans granted to firms in a region hosting two different cultural groups to study the role of culture in the formation of lending relationships. We find a large predominance of lending relationships involving banks and firms of the same culture, particularly among small, young, and opaque firms. Loans to same-culture firms are larger, require less collateral, and default less often than loans to different-culture firms. Our results suggest that cultural proximity reduces information asymmetries by providing a source of soft information that complements the one stemming from close or lengthy relationships.
{"title":"Cultural Proximity and the Formation of Lending Relationships","authors":"Antonio Accetturo, G. Barboni, M. Cascarano, Emilia Garcia-Appendini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3882637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3882637","url":null,"abstract":"We use credit registry data from the population of loans granted to firms in a region hosting two different cultural groups to study the role of culture in the formation of lending relationships. We find a large predominance of lending relationships involving banks and firms of the same culture, particularly among small, young, and opaque firms. Loans to same-culture firms are larger, require less collateral, and default less often than loans to different-culture firms. Our results suggest that cultural proximity reduces information asymmetries by providing a source of soft information that complements the one stemming from close or lengthy relationships.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123815896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors’ demand for liquidity. We measure the quantity of these forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium in a sample from 1934 to 2016, estimating the substitutability of these assets and the liquidity per unit delivered by each asset. Treasuries and bank transaction deposits are imperfect substitutes, in contrast to perfect substitutes found by Nagel (2016). Bank and nonbank non-transaction deposits are closer substitutes for Treasuries. Our empirical results inform theories of the monetary transmission mechanism running through shifts in asset supplies and models of the coexistence of the shadow banking and regulated banking system.
{"title":"The Demand for Money, Near-Money, and Treasury Bonds","authors":"A. Krishnamurthy, Wenhao Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3879713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3879713","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors’ demand for liquidity. We measure the quantity of these forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium in a sample from 1934 to 2016, estimating the substitutability of these assets and the liquidity per unit delivered by each asset. Treasuries and bank transaction deposits are imperfect substitutes, in contrast to perfect substitutes found by Nagel (2016). Bank and nonbank non-transaction deposits are closer substitutes for Treasuries. Our empirical results inform theories of the monetary transmission mechanism running through shifts in asset supplies and models of the coexistence of the shadow banking and regulated banking system.","PeriodicalId":331807,"journal":{"name":"Banking & Insurance eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123999576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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