Abstract Purpose We examine the role of financial and nonfinancial performance measures in managing revenues derived from life cycles of a type of intellectual property products − motion pictures. Design/approach Our study focuses on the first two markets in which audiences can watch a motion picture – the upstream theatrical market and the downstream home video market. We combine data collected from numerous public and proprietary sources and form a final sample of 654 motion pictures. Then we perform regression analysis on the data. Findings First, three measures of a movie’s performance in the theatrical market, opening box office revenue, peak rank, and weeks at the peak rank, have positive effects on subsequent revenues in the home video market. Second, the same set of performance measures also predicts the motion picture’s life span in the theatrical market. Third, when the actual life span of a motion picture in the theatrical market deviates from its predicted value, the total return on investment in the motion picture decreases. Research limitations We do not have data on other downstream markets related to motion pictures, such as pay-per-view and online video streaming. Practical implications This study suggests that the public and proprietary data can be used to inform managerial decisions regarding intellectual property product life cycles. Originality/value This is the first accounting study that directly examines life cycle revenues of intellectual property products. We also extend literature on revenue driver and revenue management research to the product level.
{"title":"Financial and Nonfinancial Performance Measures for Managing Revenue Streams of Intellectual Property Products: The Case of Motion Pictures","authors":"J. Gong, S. Young","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3459849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3459849","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract \u0000Purpose \u0000We examine the role of financial and nonfinancial performance measures in managing revenues derived from life cycles of a type of intellectual property products − motion pictures. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Design/approach \u0000Our study focuses on the first two markets in which audiences can watch a motion picture – the upstream theatrical market and the downstream home video market. We combine data collected from numerous public and proprietary sources and form a final sample of 654 motion pictures. Then we perform regression analysis on the data. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Findings \u0000First, three measures of a movie’s performance in the theatrical market, opening box office revenue, peak rank, and weeks at the peak rank, have positive effects on subsequent revenues in the home video market. Second, the same set of performance measures also predicts the motion picture’s life span in the theatrical market. Third, when the actual life span of a motion picture in the theatrical market deviates from its predicted value, the total return on investment in the motion picture decreases. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Research limitations \u0000We do not have data on other downstream markets related to motion pictures, such as pay-per-view and online video streaming. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Practical implications \u0000This study suggests that the public and proprietary data can be used to inform managerial decisions regarding intellectual property product life cycles. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Originality/value \u0000This is the first accounting study that directly examines life cycle revenues of intellectual property products. We also extend literature on revenue driver and revenue management research to the product level.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128780178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Atanasov and Black (2015) (AB) analyzes potential limitations of empirical studies that use shock-based IV designs, focusing specifically on our article that studies the effect of board independence on firm value (Duchin et al., 2010). With regard to our study, AB raises three concerns with our analysis. This note presents our reaction to AB’s analysis. We agree with two of the concerns in the abstract; it turns out they do not matter for the substance of our analysis. We disagree on the critical issue concerning selection of covariates. As a guide to future research, we highlight the nature of the disagreement, and explain why we believe covariates should be motivated by theory, and why an a theoretical approach to selecting covariates can result in failure to identify effects that actually exist. An important lesson from the analysis is that researchers should exercise caution when including ad-hoc covariates in empirical specifications. We offer concluding thoughts about empirical research and causal inference.
Atanasov和Black (2015) (AB)分析了使用基于冲击的IV设计的实证研究的潜在局限性，特别关注我们研究董事会独立性对公司价值影响的文章(Duchin et al.， 2010)。关于我们的研究，AB在我们的分析中提出了三个问题。本文是我们对AB分析的反应。我们同意抽象意义上的两个问题;事实证明，它们对我们分析的实质并不重要。我们在协变量选择的关键问题上意见不一致。作为对未来研究的指导，我们强调了分歧的本质，并解释了为什么我们认为协变量应该由理论驱动，以及为什么选择协变量的理论方法可能导致无法识别实际存在的影响。从分析中得到的一个重要教训是，当研究人员在经验规范中包括临时协变量时，应谨慎行事。我们提供关于实证研究和因果推理的结论性想法。
{"title":"Comments on: 'The Trouble with Instruments: Re-Examining Shock-Based IV Designs' by Atanasov and Black","authors":"R. Duchin, J. Matsusaka, O. Ozbas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2697098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2697098","url":null,"abstract":"Atanasov and Black (2015) (AB) analyzes potential limitations of empirical studies that use shock-based IV designs, focusing specifically on our article that studies the effect of board independence on firm value (Duchin et al., 2010). With regard to our study, AB raises three concerns with our analysis. This note presents our reaction to AB’s analysis. We agree with two of the concerns in the abstract; it turns out they do not matter for the substance of our analysis. We disagree on the critical issue concerning selection of covariates. As a guide to future research, we highlight the nature of the disagreement, and explain why we believe covariates should be motivated by theory, and why an a theoretical approach to selecting covariates can result in failure to identify effects that actually exist. An important lesson from the analysis is that researchers should exercise caution when including ad-hoc covariates in empirical specifications. We offer concluding thoughts about empirical research and causal inference.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116686507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nihon Keizai Shinbun (Nikkei for short) is a leading Japanese daily newspaper specializing in economy and business. It is also the largest vendor of Japanese financial and economic databases. During earnings announcement season, the Nikkei morning edition often publishes “preview” articles that are about companies’ sales and earnings. However, these pre-date the actual company announcements, and forecast more accurately the actual results than the existing forecasts, making the Nikkei forecasts value-relevant information. We identify 2,835 preview articles in the newspaper from 2000 to 2010. We examine the circumstances under which these preview articles are written and the impact they have on the market. Our findings show that stock price reacts positively to positive news but it does not react negatively to negative news. The market reacts to the information even before the preview articles are printed, suggesting some leakage of the information to market participants. The costs and benefits (or incentives) for companies, Nikkei, and investors are investigated using changes in returns and information content around the events. We find a positive correlation between previewing and positive news sentiment.
{"title":"Selective Disclosure: The Case of Nikkei Preview Articles","authors":"W. Goetzmann, Yasushi Hamao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2634714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2634714","url":null,"abstract":"Nihon Keizai Shinbun (Nikkei for short) is a leading Japanese daily newspaper specializing in economy and business. It is also the largest vendor of Japanese financial and economic databases. During earnings announcement season, the Nikkei morning edition often publishes “preview” articles that are about companies’ sales and earnings. However, these pre-date the actual company announcements, and forecast more accurately the actual results than the existing forecasts, making the Nikkei forecasts value-relevant information. We identify 2,835 preview articles in the newspaper from 2000 to 2010. We examine the circumstances under which these preview articles are written and the impact they have on the market. Our findings show that stock price reacts positively to positive news but it does not react negatively to negative news. The market reacts to the information even before the preview articles are printed, suggesting some leakage of the information to market participants. The costs and benefits (or incentives) for companies, Nikkei, and investors are investigated using changes in returns and information content around the events. We find a positive correlation between previewing and positive news sentiment.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133676012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, I analyze Bitcoin transaction data and build an economic model on Bitcoin traders incentives to decompose the Bitcoin price into a utility-driven component, a speculative component, and a friction component. The model I build extends the LDA (Latent-Dirichlet-Allocation) model, and I perform a paralleled collapsed Gibbs Sampling method to estimate the realized incentives of each individual trader at each time point. For post-estimation analysis, I look into major headline news to see which how information or rumor affects the different components of the Bitcoin price. The preliminary results show interesting patterns of trading and pricing in the Bitcoin market for the first time.
{"title":"Value or Bubble? A Decomposition of the Bitcoin Price","authors":"Yun Ling","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2693885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2693885","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, I analyze Bitcoin transaction data and build an economic model on Bitcoin traders incentives to decompose the Bitcoin price into a utility-driven component, a speculative component, and a friction component. The model I build extends the LDA (Latent-Dirichlet-Allocation) model, and I perform a paralleled collapsed Gibbs Sampling method to estimate the realized incentives of each individual trader at each time point. For post-estimation analysis, I look into major headline news to see which how information or rumor affects the different components of the Bitcoin price. The preliminary results show interesting patterns of trading and pricing in the Bitcoin market for the first time.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"266 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123288228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We argue that a pure capabilities-based view does not accurately explain the competitive dynamics of increasingly common settings where firms act as both complementors and competitors. We propose that the Awareness-Motivation-Capability framework is more appropriate for these settings. We derive predictions from both a pure capabilities view and the AMC framework and test those predictions in the United States auto leasing market, where the leasing subsidiaries of car manufacturers directly compete with the same independent lessors who provide complements to the manufacturers. Although our results are consistent with capabilities playing an important role, motivation appears to be a critical factor explaining the competitive dynamics of the market.
{"title":"Motivation Matters: Corporate Scope and Competition in Complementary Product Markets","authors":"V. M. Bennett, L. Pierce","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2535952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2535952","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that a pure capabilities-based view does not accurately explain the competitive dynamics of increasingly common settings where firms act as both complementors and competitors. We propose that the Awareness-Motivation-Capability framework is more appropriate for these settings. We derive predictions from both a pure capabilities view and the AMC framework and test those predictions in the United States auto leasing market, where the leasing subsidiaries of car manufacturers directly compete with the same independent lessors who provide complements to the manufacturers. Although our results are consistent with capabilities playing an important role, motivation appears to be a critical factor explaining the competitive dynamics of the market.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"123 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129551979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies weight-based mutual fund performance measures in a panel predictive regressions framework, where future stock returns are regressed on a fund's portfolio weights. Existing performance measures suffer biases related to benchmark misspecifications and are statistically inefficient. To address these issues, we introduce bias-adjusted and weighted least squares (WLS) measures. Simulations show that new methods can effectively control bias and improve power, compared with existing measures. We also apply the existing and newly introduced measures to empirical examples. Using bias-adjusted measures and efficient measures can lead to different conclusions about managers' abilities.
{"title":"Can Weight-Based Measures Distinguish between Informed and Uninformed Fund Managers?","authors":"Junbo Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2520839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2520839","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies weight-based mutual fund performance measures in a panel predictive regressions framework, where future stock returns are regressed on a fund's portfolio weights. Existing performance measures suffer biases related to benchmark misspecifications and are statistically inefficient. To address these issues, we introduce bias-adjusted and weighted least squares (WLS) measures. Simulations show that new methods can effectively control bias and improve power, compared with existing measures. We also apply the existing and newly introduced measures to empirical examples. Using bias-adjusted measures and efficient measures can lead to different conclusions about managers' abilities.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127012715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a model in which the principal and the agent share private information about the value of the agent for a multi-agent organization. The principal can disclose private information and make public the relative standing or status of all agents in the organization. We study whether it is better in terms of profit and utility to disclose or to not disclose status to the group of agents. Conditions for the optimality of disclosure versus non-disclosure are characterized for the cases of exogenous and endogenous human capital.
{"title":"Disclosure of Status in an Agency Setting","authors":"A. Mariño, O. Ozbas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1963060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1963060","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a model in which the principal and the agent share private information about the value of the agent for a multi-agent organization. The principal can disclose private information and make public the relative standing or status of all agents in the organization. We study whether it is better in terms of profit and utility to disclose or to not disclose status to the group of agents. Conditions for the optimality of disclosure versus non-disclosure are characterized for the cases of exogenous and endogenous human capital.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114511713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In weekly intervals, the Swiss stock research firm Obermatt publishes the top 10 stocks in a stock index based on four different investment strategies. This report describes the results of a back testing of this method. It uses prior year year-end financials to identify top 10 stock tips for a stock index at the beginning of the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. It then compares the returns of these 10 stock tips with the returns of the index that they come from. This report tests 600 investment cases (50 stock indices times 3 years times 4 investment strategies). From the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2013, Obermatt Top 10 Stock Tips generated an average outperformance over the corresponding 52 stock indices of 8.0%. In other words, Obermatt Top 10 Stock Tips generated 8% more returns than the index where they come from. Obermatt stock tips have been better than their index in 454 of the tested 600 cases (76%). The value strategy was right in eight out of ten performance comparisons (81%). The underlying data is available free of charge at Obermatt for further research and publications.
瑞士股票研究公司Obermatt每隔一周就会根据四种不同的投资策略公布一个股指中排名前十的股票。本报告描述了该方法的回测结果。该公司利用前一年的年终财务报告，在2011年、2012年和2013年年初确定某一股指的十大个股建议。然后，它将这10个股票提示的回报与它们所来自的指数的回报进行比较。本报告测试了600个投资案例(50个股票指数乘以3年乘以4个投资策略)。从2011年初到2013年底，Obermatt Top 10股票提示的平均表现超过了相应的52个股票指数8.0%。换句话说，Obermatt十大股票提示产生的回报比其来源的指数高出8%。在接受测试的600个案例中，有454个(76%)股票提示的表现好于他们的指数。价值策略在8 / 10的业绩比较中是正确的(81%)。基础数据可以在Obermatt免费获得，用于进一步的研究和出版。
{"title":"Obermatt Top 10 Stocks Back Testing","authors":"Hermann J. Stern","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2438628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2438628","url":null,"abstract":"In weekly intervals, the Swiss stock research firm Obermatt publishes the top 10 stocks in a stock index based on four different investment strategies. This report describes the results of a back testing of this method. It uses prior year year-end financials to identify top 10 stock tips for a stock index at the beginning of the years 2011, 2012 and 2013. It then compares the returns of these 10 stock tips with the returns of the index that they come from. This report tests 600 investment cases (50 stock indices times 3 years times 4 investment strategies). From the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2013, Obermatt Top 10 Stock Tips generated an average outperformance over the corresponding 52 stock indices of 8.0%. In other words, Obermatt Top 10 Stock Tips generated 8% more returns than the index where they come from. Obermatt stock tips have been better than their index in 454 of the tested 600 cases (76%). The value strategy was right in eight out of ten performance comparisons (81%). The underlying data is available free of charge at Obermatt for further research and publications.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130944228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deepa Chandrasekaran, J. Arts, G. Tellis, R. Frambach
This study focuses on the effect of two dimensions of price (relative price and price volatility) on the international takeoff of new products. The study examines these drivers of takeoff using a novel data set of bimonthly observations of 7 new consumer electronic products in 8 countries. The empirical analysis reveals that both relative price and price volatility significantly impact the hazard of takeoff. However, although the effect of relative price is stable across contexts, the effects of price volatility are moderated by wealth, culture, and contagion. The use of temporally disaggregate data at the bimonthly level allows for the identification of the effect of price volatility and enables a more precise identification of takeoff than that achievable with annual data.
{"title":"Pricing in the International Takeoff of New Products","authors":"Deepa Chandrasekaran, J. Arts, G. Tellis, R. Frambach","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2165263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2165263","url":null,"abstract":"This study focuses on the effect of two dimensions of price (relative price and price volatility) on the international takeoff of new products. The study examines these drivers of takeoff using a novel data set of bimonthly observations of 7 new consumer electronic products in 8 countries. The empirical analysis reveals that both relative price and price volatility significantly impact the hazard of takeoff. However, although the effect of relative price is stable across contexts, the effects of price volatility are moderated by wealth, culture, and contagion. The use of temporally disaggregate data at the bimonthly level allows for the identification of the effect of price volatility and enables a more precise identification of takeoff than that achievable with annual data.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130301525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There are millions of users of Twitter, Facebook, Linked-in and other social media. Because of that access to large number of users, marketing has made extensive use of social media to get closer to the customer. Unfortunately, the supply chain has made only limited use of social media. However, social media can play an important role in the supply chain, gathering information and knowledge from disparate sources, and increasing available information, visibility of that information and velocity of that information in the supply chain. Those resulting changes in information characteristics can facilitate “sharing” information, knowledge and plans. As a result, social media in the supply chain can enable greater development of supply chain relationships and trust.
{"title":"Developing Trust and Relationships in the Supply Chain Using Social Media","authors":"Daniel E. O'Leary","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2115202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2115202","url":null,"abstract":"There are millions of users of Twitter, Facebook, Linked-in and other social media. Because of that access to large number of users, marketing has made extensive use of social media to get closer to the customer. Unfortunately, the supply chain has made only limited use of social media. However, social media can play an important role in the supply chain, gathering information and knowledge from disparate sources, and increasing available information, visibility of that information and velocity of that information in the supply chain. Those resulting changes in information characteristics can facilitate “sharing” information, knowledge and plans. As a result, social media in the supply chain can enable greater development of supply chain relationships and trust.","PeriodicalId":332226,"journal":{"name":"USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129519892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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