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Formation of an Optimal Set of Software in Educational Organizations 教育组织中最优软件集的形成
A.V. Bobrovskikh, Yu. V. Bondarenko
The problem of determining the nomenclature of the optimal set of application software (software) necessary for the implementation of educational programs in higher educational institutions (HEI) by quantifying its quality is considered. Aim. Development of a mechanism for a comprehensive assessment of the quality of software within the selected class, to simplify the task of making an informed decision when choosing a standard set of universities. Materials and methods. The proposed mechanism is based on the use of optimization methods and expert assessments. At the first stage of the mechanism, the basic requirements are clarified, taking into account the specifics of the work of the educational organization. A set of programs (alternatives) for the selected software class is formed, with the subsequent determination of the key functions characteristic of it on the basis of expert information. Further, according to the software quality indicators proposed in the work, they are evaluated for each alternative. Software quality indicators are a hierarchical three-level system (criterion, metric, evaluation element), in which the indicators of the higher levels are determined through the indicators of the lower levels. The integral assessment of the quality of an alternative is defined as the sum of the estimates of its quality criteria. At the final stage, the problem of integer linear programming is solved to determine the optimal range of alternatives within the corresponding software class, based on their conditions: maximizing the quality of an alternative contai¬ning the required set of functions, and minimizing their number. Results. The mechanism of determining the optimal alternatives for the formation of a standard set of software, in order to implement the necessary educational programs of the university, is considered. The main indicators of software quality and the mathematical apparatus for their assessment are formalized. Conclusion. The proposed mechanism allows for a quantitative assessment of the quality of software within its class, with the subsequent selection of the most rational software tools for the university. Such an asses¬sment will simplify the task of making an informed decision when forming a standard set of software necessary for implementing the requirements of federal educational standards, and in general will increase the effectiveness of the system for coordinating informatization in this direction.
通过对应用软件质量的量化来确定高等教育机构实施教育项目所需的最优应用软件集的命名问题。的目标。开发一种机制,对所选班级的软件质量进行全面评估,以简化在选择一组标准大学时做出明智决定的任务。材料和方法。提出的机制是基于使用优化方法和专家评估。在机制的第一阶段,考虑到教育机构工作的具体情况,明确了基本要求。形成所选软件类的一套程序(备选方案),并根据专家信息确定其关键功能特征。进一步,根据工作中提出的软件质量指标,对每个备选方案进行评估。软件质量指标是一个分层的三级系统(标准、度量、评价元素),其中较高层的指标是通过较低层的指标确定的。一个备选方案质量的整体评价被定义为其质量准则估计的总和。在最后阶段,求解整数线性规划问题,以确定相应软件类中备选方案的最优范围,基于它们的条件:使包含所需函数集的备选方案的质量最大化,并使其数量最小化。结果。为了实现大学的必要教育计划,考虑了确定形成一套标准软件的最佳选择的机制。给出了软件质量的主要指标及其评估的数学方法。结论。所提议的机制允许对其类内的软件质量进行定量评估,随后为大学选择最合理的软件工具。这样的评估将简化在形成实施联邦教育标准要求所需的一套标准软件时做出明智决策的任务,并且总体上将提高系统在这方面协调信息化的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Construction Management Based on Modeling Technology of Object Construction 基于对象构造建模技术的施工管理
E. Gusev, A. Hollay
The time schedule is the main source of information in construction management. The overall efficiency and success of the project ultimately depends on its quality. At present, the concept of "technology for the construction of an object" is associated with the technological sequence of works of the object, the relationship between them, but there are practically no deep theoretical studies in the field of determining the quantitative relationships between interrelated works. The traditional approach to determining quantitative ratios based on previously adopted organizational decisions is fully justified for organizational and technological planning. But in order to organize the production of work, that is, to make the appropriate organizational decisions for the implementation of specific volumes of work, it is necessary to preliminarily determine these volumes.In the process of determination, technological requirements must be taken into account, which dictate the quantitative relationships between interrelated works. Purpose of the study. Building a model that takes into account technological dependencies in the process of performing construction and installation work. Materials and methods. The work used publications available in open sources on the organization of construction work, as well as regulations used in the Russian Federation, regulating the construction industry. Results. A new concept of construction technology of an object is given, as a quantitative and qualitative assessment of technological links between works, which determine the possibility of planning works and organizing production, depending on the state of the previous ones. This definition allows us to formulate the essence of modeling the construction technology of an object, namely, the establishment of technological links between the works and the determination of the minimum volumes on the previous one, which open up the possibility for planning a technologically interconnected volume on the subsequent work. The article has developed and presented such a model (model of object technological dependencies), which describes the technological interrelationships of works and their quantitative estimates at the beginning and end of works. The possibilities of the model of object technological dependencies in the development of management decisions from the point of view of the general functions of construction management are shown. Conclusion. The described model can successfully serve as a technological basis for planning construction and installation works, making organizational decisions, monitoring the progress of work, as well as developing management decisions in the process of construction production. With its help, you can analyze the progress and status of work in each planning period of the planned year.
进度计划是施工管理的主要信息来源。项目的整体效率和成功最终取决于它的质量。目前,“建造一个物体的技术”的概念是与该物体的作品的技术顺序、它们之间的关系联系在一起的,但在确定相互关联的作品之间的定量关系方面,实际上还没有深入的理论研究。基于先前采用的组织决策来确定定量比率的传统方法对于组织和技术规划是完全合理的。但为了组织工作的生产,即对具体工作量的实施作出适当的组织决策,就需要初步确定这些工作量。在确定过程中,必须考虑到技术要求,这决定了相互关联的工作之间的数量关系。研究目的:建立一个在施工和安装工作过程中考虑到技术依赖关系的模型。材料和方法。这项工作使用了公开来源提供的关于建筑工作组织的出版物,以及俄罗斯联邦使用的管理建筑业的条例。结果。提出了一个工程施工技术的新概念,即对工程之间的技术联系进行定量和定性的评价,这些技术联系决定了工程计划和组织生产的可能性,取决于前一个工程的状态。这一定义使我们能够制定一个对象的建造技术建模的本质,即在作品之间建立技术联系,并确定前一个作品的最小体积,这为在后续作品中规划技术互联的体积开辟了可能性。本文已经开发并提出了这样一个模型(对象技术依赖模型),它描述了作品的技术相互关系以及它们在作品开始和结束时的定量估计。从施工管理的一般功能的角度来看,显示了对象技术依赖模型在管理决策发展中的可能性。结论。所描述的模型可以成功地作为建筑安装工程规划、组织决策、工程进度监控以及建筑生产过程管理决策制定的技术依据。通过它,您可以分析计划年度的每个规划时期的工作进度和状态。
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引用次数: 0
Цифровизация процессов активизации государственно-частного партнерства как инструмент привлечения инвестиций 将公私合作伙伴的数字化进程作为吸引投资的工具
T.A. Averina, S. A. Barkalov, Yu.S. Lavrova
Currently, one of the promising areas of economic development is digitalization in general and the formation of a high-quality information infrastructure in particular. This is especially true for the processes of activating public-private partnership – mutually beneficial interaction between the state and business. Due to the pandemic, investors are working with their portfolio more carefully, and it becomes more difficult to attract private funds. The purpose of the study is to analyze the information environment for PPP projects, namely, to assess its attractiveness and transparency for investors. The objectives are to analyze the distribution of concession agreements by investment volume, identify problem areas in the implementation of public-private partnership programmes of the Russian Federation, describe measures that contribute to improving the efficiency of public-private interaction. General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis were used in the work. The authors relied on such materials as current publications of domestic and foreign scientists on the research topic, materials of All-Russian and international management conferences, electronic reports of research centers and official statistics provided by government agencies. As a result, an interactive map is described rating of cities by the level of development of project activities in the field of public-private partnership. The interactive map is a powerful tool of digital transformation, unlike the annual published electronic and paper reports, more accurately reflects the situation on the PPP projects market at the current time, that is, the information remains relevant for each of the requests of each subsequent user. The article also presents the results of a comparative analysis of popular mapping programs as a definition of the most effective and sustainable platform for creating a service. By transforming the traditional information infrastructure in this way, it is possible to increase the investment attractiveness of subjects, and therefore affect the quality of life of residents of both individual cities and the whole country.
当前,经济发展的一个有前景的领域是数字化,特别是形成高质量的信息基础设施。这对于激活公私伙伴关系的过程尤其如此-国家与企业之间的互利互动。由于大流行,投资者对其投资组合的处理更加谨慎,吸引私人资金变得更加困难。本研究的目的是分析PPP项目的信息环境,即评估其对投资者的吸引力和透明度。其目标是按投资额分析特许协议的分配情况,查明在执行俄罗斯联邦公私伙伴关系方案方面的问题领域,说明有助于提高公私相互作用效率的措施。在这项工作中使用了一般的科学分析和综合方法。作者参考了国内外科学家关于研究课题的最新出版物、全俄和国际管理会议的资料、研究中心的电子报告和政府机构提供的官方统计数据等资料。因此,根据公私伙伴关系领域项目活动的发展水平对城市进行了评价。交互式地图是数字化转型的有力工具,与每年发布的电子和纸质报告不同,它更准确地反映了当前PPP项目市场的情况,即信息对每个后续用户的每个请求都保持相关性。文章还介绍了流行地图程序的比较分析结果,作为创建服务的最有效和可持续平台的定义。通过这种方式改造传统的信息基础设施,可以增加主体的投资吸引力,从而影响单个城市和全国居民的生活质量。
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引用次数: 0
Method of Ensuring that Deviations from Business Process Requirements Are Controlled in the Operation of the Company's Automated Systems 确保在公司自动化系统运行中控制偏离业务流程需求的方法
V. Antonov, V.N. Shkarov, L. Rodionova, G. Kulikov, V. A. Kolesnikov
Given the multifaceted nature of the concept of business process, we will limit ourselves to defining business process as a set of interrelated activities or works aimed at creating a certain product or service for customers. From the perspective of the BPM concept, business processes are valuable resources of an enterprise and their management is part of the system of organizational activities, i.e. the organizational system of automated enterprise business process management. Research Objective. Automation, then, is also a business process whose objectives are: the development (acquisition), implementation and operation of software and hardware designed to implement new business process capabilities (which simply were not in the manual loop), optimize and increase the speed of the existing business process, improve working conditions, reduce labor requirements, etc. There is a new direction – computer integration of information. Materials and methods. It is suggested that monitoring deviations from business process requirements be used to organise regular information-technology feedback in the of automated business process management systems of an enterprise. Results. Automation of a business process endows a business process with a new feature – the abi-lity to obtain operational data on all prescribed activities and to integrate all interacting objects of the business process in the implementation of the prescribed set of target functions. In some cases, business process automation is performed to streamline IT-related activities inside the organization. This includes the management of internal resources of the organization – financial, material, human resources, etc. Conclusion. Due to the presence of a sufficiently large number of “legacy systems”, the constantly increasing dynamics of changes in the external environment and the business proces-ses themselves, the task of ensuring the correctness of systems functioning in the absence of the current information model and the current documentation of the automated system seems relevant.
鉴于业务流程概念的多面性,我们将仅限于将业务流程定义为旨在为客户创建特定产品或服务的一组相互关联的活动或工作。从BPM概念的角度来看,业务流程是企业的宝贵资源,其管理是组织活动系统的一部分,即自动化企业业务流程管理的组织系统。研究目标。因此,自动化也是一种业务流程,其目标是:开发(获取)、实现和操作旨在实现新业务流程功能的软件和硬件(这些功能根本不在手动循环中)、优化和提高现有业务流程的速度、改善工作条件、减少劳动力需求等。有了一个新的方向——计算机信息集成。材料和方法。建议在企业的自动化业务流程管理系统中,利用监控业务流程需求的偏差来组织定期的信息技术反馈。结果。业务流程的自动化为业务流程赋予了一项新功能——能够获取所有指定活动的操作数据,并将业务流程的所有交互对象集成到指定目标功能集的实现中。在某些情况下,执行业务流程自动化是为了简化组织内与it相关的活动。这包括组织内部资源的管理——财务、物质、人力资源等。结论。由于存在足够多的“遗留系统”,外部环境和业务流程本身不断增加的动态变化,在没有当前信息模型和自动化系统的当前文档的情况下,确保系统功能的正确性的任务似乎是相关的。
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引用次数: 0
Reducing the Order of Complex Models Using the Robust Control Toolbox 利用鲁棒控制工具箱降低复杂模型的阶数
N. Bilfeld, S. Varlamova
The city of Berezniki, Perm region is located on an underworked mine area. For several years, the city has been experiencing active subsidence of the soil, which provoke the destruction of buil-dings. Therefore, for several years now, the city's buildings and structures have been monitored, which makes it possible to analyze the degree of subsidence. Models of a sufficiently high order are used for an accurate analysis of the situation and forecasting. The article is about a possibility of modeling the deformation of buildings associated with soil subsidence, as a result of mine workings in the city of Berezniki. The purpose of the study is to consider the capabilities of the ‘Robust Control Toolbox’ for reducing the order of complexity of models. An example of an eight-story building included in the collection of reference examples for reducing models of linear dynamic systems is used. Materials and methods. Typical steps for solving the problem of model reduction are presented, commands and tools used to solve this problem are described. The parameters of the model in the state space are determined, which has 48 states, which are displacements or rates of change. The singular values of Hankel are used to select states that can be neglected. The model is reduced using an adaptive error boundary. Reduction using the multiplicative error bound is considered. Comparison of the results of reduction of the model by all described methods is carried out, the choice of the best method of reduction of the model is substantiated. Results. An analysis of the approximation error was performed for all the methods. The maximum relative error has been calculated. An example of calculating the order of the model for a given error value of 5% is given. The order of the result model is 34 states with the error less is then 1%, which is less than the original model. As a result, the AFCs of the original and reduced models, as well as the transient processes of the models, were constructed. The plots in the frequency domain of the models practically coincide, which indicates an adequate description of the system. Conclusions. As a result, it was shown that it is possible to reduce the size of the model by 14 orders of magnitude, goal achieved.
彼尔姆地区的别列兹尼基市位于一个未开发的矿区。几年来,这座城市一直在经历土壤的主动下沉,这引发了建筑物的破坏。因此,几年来,人们一直在监测城市的建筑物和结构,这使得分析下沉程度成为可能。足够高阶的模型用于对形势的准确分析和预测。这篇文章是关于在别列兹尼基市的矿山工作中,对与土壤沉降相关的建筑物变形进行建模的可能性。本研究的目的是考虑“鲁棒控制工具箱”在降低模型复杂程度方面的能力。本文采用了线性动力系统简化模型参考实例集中的一个八层建筑实例。材料和方法。给出了解决模型约简问题的典型步骤,描述了解决该问题所使用的命令和工具。确定模型在状态空间中的参数,该空间有48个状态,这些状态是位移或变化率。利用汉克尔的奇异值来选择可以忽略的状态。采用自适应误差边界对模型进行了简化。考虑使用乘法误差界进行约简。对各种方法的模型约简结果进行了比较,证明了模型最佳约简方法的选择。结果。对所有方法的逼近误差进行了分析。计算了最大相对误差。给出了在给定误差值为5%的情况下计算模型阶数的实例。结果模型的阶数为34个状态,误差小于1%,小于原模型。构造了原模型和简化模型的afc,以及模型的瞬态过程。模型的频域图基本重合,说明对系统的描述比较充分。结论。结果表明,将模型的尺寸减小14个数量级是可能的,达到了目标。
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引用次数: 0
TRANSFORMATION OF THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODEL FOR STANDARD SITUATIONS USING INTELLECTUAL AND ANALYTICAL METHODS 使用智能和分析方法对标准情况下的决策支持系统模型进行转换
V. Antonov, K. Konev, G. Kulikov, J. Scientific
The article discusses the issues of improving the efficiency of decision support activities on a relatively large amount of information. The research relevance is associated with the increasing complexity of control objects, which leads to a decrease in the efficiency of decision-making based on the personal experience of decision-makers, up to complete impossibility. The purpose of the ar-ticle is to analyze the problems faced by decision-makers and the creation of methods to improve the effectiveness of decision-making in typical situations. The article examines the main compo-nents of the intelligent subsystem of the decision support system, which require the use of analytical tools, and also forms the methods interaction structure necessary for the effective formation of sce-narios of information support for decision making. To achieve the goals, a decision support method based on an intelligent component was used, which is aimed at creating an effective infrastructure to sup-port decision-making; methods of identification and categorization, designed to implement the most accurate and correct comparison of the characteristics (state) of the observed situation and the characteristics of a typical situation stored in the knowledge base; correlation methods aimed at finding dependencies between the characteristics of situations and scenarios to solve problems associated with these situa-tions; a method for constructing subject qualimetry, used to form a predictive model to assess the degree of compliance of the selected scenario for solving the current situation. As a result, it was de-termined that an important aspect of decision-making in typical situations is the most accurate identification of the state of the situation, the choice of the best scenario for implementing the solu-tion for this situation and the analysis of the consequences of the selected set of measures. To solve these problems, a method for identifying a situation, a method for finding solution scenarios and a qualimetric method for predicting the effectiveness of the selected scenario have been formed. The article concludes that decision-making activities based on the accumulated experience can be im-proved by using the proposed methods and implementing a decision support system with an intelli-gent component.
本文讨论了如何在信息量相对较大的情况下提高决策支持活动的效率。研究相关性与控制对象的复杂性增加有关,这导致决策者基于个人经验的决策效率下降,甚至完全不可能。本文的目的是分析决策者面临的问题,并在典型情况下创造提高决策有效性的方法。本文考察了决策支持系统智能子系统的主要组成部分对分析工具的需求,并形成了有效形成决策信息支持场景情景所必需的方法交互结构。为了实现这一目标,采用了一种基于智能组件的决策支持方法,旨在创建有效的基础设施来支持决策;识别和分类方法,旨在将观察到的情况的特征(状态)与知识库中存储的典型情况的特征进行最准确和正确的比较;关联方法旨在发现情境特征与场景之间的依赖关系,以解决与这些情境相关的问题;一种构建主体质量测量的方法,用于形成预测模型,以评估所选场景对解决当前情况的符合程度。因此,确定在典型情况下作出决策的一个重要方面是最准确地查明情况,为执行这种情况的解决办法选择最佳方案,并分析选定的一套措施的后果。为了解决这些问题,形成了一种识别情景的方法,一种寻找解决方案的方法和一种预测所选方案有效性的定性方法。本文的结论是,通过使用所提出的方法和实现具有智能组件的决策支持系统,可以改进基于积累经验的决策活动。
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引用次数: 0
A MODEL FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF EFFECTIVENESS OF ON-THE-JOB TRAINING PROCESS 一种提高在职培训效率的模式
O. Perevalova, S. Barkalov, N. Kalinina, D. N. Batrakova
The article considers some aspects of the mentoring process management, namely incentives for mentors. To that end, we consider in detail a model for staff training evaluation, which takes place in the form of mentoring, one of the most popular forms of on-the-job training. The aim of the present study is to develop an effective incentive model for mentors, which aims to improve the effectiveness of their performance management, as this model involves not only the establishment of an effective system of allowances and additional payments to mentors, but also an evaluation system of duties performed by staff. Materials and methods. It is planned to assess the training in the following areas: corporate competencies; professional competencies and implementation of an established plan. For this purpose it is proposed to use the “360 degrees” method, direct inspection and other methods of collecting information depending on the measured indicators. Following the evaluation process it is expected to obtain a comprehensive mentoring assessment, which can be used to adjust the mentoring procedure, a comprehensive assessment of a student, which demon-strates learning outcomes as well as a comprehensive assessment of a mentor, which could be used to create an incentive model for mentors. In order to develop an effective mentoring system it is proposed to make the size of mentoring allowance dynamic, i.e. directly dependent on the results of mentoring – comprehensive assessment of a mentor. It is proposed to build a comprehensive as-sessment of mentoring procedure by means of additive convolution of criteria. Results. Therefore, the essence of mentor bonus dynamism strategy includes the following aspects. First, the mentor will receive a fixed compensatory bonus for the entire mentoring period. Second, the mentor will receive an incentive bonus. It is proposed to determine the amount of the bonus as a percentage of the mentor's salary calculated as a multifaceted evaluation of the mentoring process that will directly depend on the mentor's contribution to the mentoring process. Conclusion. It is expected that the implementation of the proposed model in the practice of mentoring procedure management will in-crease its effectiveness and reduce the formality, which we see in practice today.
本文考虑了师徒过程管理的一些方面,即对导师的激励。为此目的,我们详细考虑一种工作人员培训评价模式,这种模式以指导的形式进行,这是最流行的在职培训形式之一。本研究的目的是建立一个有效的导师激励模式,以提高导师绩效管理的有效性,因为该模式不仅涉及建立有效的导师津贴和额外支付制度,还涉及建立工作人员履行职责的评价制度。材料和方法。计划评价下列领域的培训:公司能力;专业能力和既定计划的执行。为此,建议根据被测指标,采用“360度”法、直接检验等收集信息的方法。在评估过程之后,期望得到一个综合的师徒评估,可以用来调整师徒程序;一个学生的综合评估,可以展示学习成果;一个导师的综合评估,可以用来创建导师的激励模型。为了建立一个有效的师徒制度,建议将师徒津贴的大小设置为动态的,即直接取决于师徒的结果——对导师的综合评估。在此基础上,提出了一种基于准则加性卷积的指导过程综合评价方法。结果。因此,导师奖金动态性战略的实质包括以下几个方面。首先,导师将在整个指导期间获得固定的补偿性奖金。其次,导师将获得激励奖金。建议将奖金的数额确定为导师工资的百分比,作为对指导过程的多方面评估,这将直接取决于导师对指导过程的贡献。结论。我们期望在指导过程管理的实践中实施所提出的模型将增加其有效性并减少我们今天在实践中看到的形式。
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引用次数: 0
STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGING THE PARAMETERS OF THE ARIMA MODEL ON THE QUALITY OF THE FORECAST FOR SHORT DATA SETS 研究改变arima模型参数对短数据集预报质量的影响
M. Fel’ker, V. Chesnov
Time series, i.e. data collected at various times. The data collection segments may differ de-pending on the task. Time series are used for decision making. Time series analysis allows you to get some result that will determine the format of the decision. Time series analysis was carried out in very ancient times, for example, various calendars became a consequence of the analysis. Later, time series analysis was applied to study and forecast economic, social and other systems. Time se-ries appeared a long time ago. Once upon a time, ancient Babylonian astronomers, studying the po-sition of the stars, discovered the frequency of eclipses, which allowed them to predict their appearance in the future. Later, the analysis of time series, in a similar way, led to the creation of various calen-dars, for example, harvest calendars. In the future, in addition to natural areas, social and economic ones were added. Aim. Search for classification patterns of time series, allowing to understand whether it is possible to apply the ARIMA model for their short-term (3 counts) forecast. Materials and methods. Special software with ARIMA implementation and all need services is made. We examined 59 data sets with a short length and step equal a year, less than 20 values in the paper. The data was processed using Python libraries: Statsmodels and Pandas. The Dickey – Fuller test was used to de-termine the stationarity of the series. The stationarity of the time series allows for better forecasting. The Akaike information criterion was used to select the best model. Recommendations for a rea-sonable selection of parameters for adjusting ARIMA models are obtained. The dependence of the settings on the category of annual data set is shown. Conclusion. After processing the data, four categories (patterns) of year data sets were identified. Depending on the category ranges of parame-ters were selected for tuning ARIMA models. The suggested ranges will allow to determine the starting parameters for exploring similar datasets. Recommendations for improving the quality of post-forecast and forecast using the ARIMA model by adjusting the settings are given.
时间序列,即在不同时间收集的数据。数据收集段可能因任务而异。时间序列用于决策。时间序列分析允许您获得一些将决定决策格式的结果。时间序列分析是在非常古老的时代进行的,例如,各种日历成为分析的结果。后来,时间序列分析被应用于经济、社会等系统的研究和预测。时间序列很久以前就出现了。从前,古巴比伦天文学家在研究恒星的位置时,发现了日食的频率,这使他们能够预测未来日食的出现。后来,对时间序列的分析,以类似的方式,导致了各种日历的创建,例如,收获日历。未来,除了自然区域,还将增加社会和经济区域。的目标。搜索时间序列的分类模式,以便了解是否有可能将ARIMA模型应用于他们的短期(3计数)预测。材料和方法。专门的软件与ARIMA实现和所有需要的服务。我们检查了59个短长度和步长等于一年的数据集,论文中不到20个值。数据使用Python库:statmodels和Pandas进行处理。Dickey - Fuller检验用于确定该系列的平稳性。时间序列的平稳性有利于更好的预测。采用赤池信息准则选择最佳模型。对合理选择ARIMA模型的参数提出了建议。显示了设置对年度数据集类别的依赖关系。结论。对数据进行处理后,确定了年份数据集的四类(模式)。根据类别选择参数范围进行ARIMA模型的调优。建议的范围将允许确定探索类似数据集的起始参数。提出了通过调整设置来提高ARIMA模型后预报和预报质量的建议。
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引用次数: 0
AN ANECHOIC CHAMBER BUILT INTO INDUSTRIAL ROOMS 消声室:建在工业室内的消声室
A. Aksenov, Kaluga Russian Federation Typhoon Jsc, A. Larin, N. Samburov
The issues of designing anechoic chambers for antenna measurements of a certain type – em-bedded in the premises of industrial purpose are considered. The advantage of such chambers is a positive economic effect associated with both the reduction of costs for construction work, and with the possibility of joint use of auxiliary room systems in the process of operation. Known ap-proaches to the design of chambers for antenna measurements are based either on ensuring a min-imum level of aesthetics, or minimum overall dimensions. In this case, it is necessary to provide a compromise between the parameters of anechoic stability and overall dimensions while ensuring the technological accessibility of the entire usable area of the room. Aim. The aim of the work is to justify the form and geometric dimensions of the chamber. Research Methods. In the process of re-search used the methods of geometric optics. When justifying the form of the chamber, practical aspects were taken into account, namely, the common form of industrial premises and workshops, as well as the possibility of effective use of common radio-absorbing materials to cover the cham-ber from the inside. In the process of finding the optimal effective geometric dimensions, the quality functionals were assumed to be aechoic and dimensional parameters. Results. A chamber in the form of a rectangular trapezoid is optimal for embedding in industrial premises. The expressions for the geometric dimensions of the chamber, ensuring the absence of first- and second-order reflections in the working area, have been found. The optimum value of the deflection angle of the back wall of the anechoic chamber was found. Conclusion. Based on the above technique, an anechoic chamber of a compact range for antenna measurements has been realized.
研究了埋设在工业场所的某型天线测量用消声室的设计问题。这种房间的优点是具有积极的经济效果,既可以减少建筑工程的费用,又可以在操作过程中联合使用辅助房间系统。已知的天线测量室的设计方法要么是基于确保最小的美学水平,要么是最小的整体尺寸。在这种情况下,有必要在消声稳定性参数和总体尺寸之间做出妥协,同时确保房间整个可用区域的技术可达性。的目标。这项工作的目的是证明腔室的形式和几何尺寸。研究方法。在研究过程中运用了几何光学的方法。在证明室的形式合理时,考虑到实际方面,即工业房地和车间的共同形式,以及有效使用共同的无线电吸收材料从内部覆盖室的可能性。在寻找最优有效几何尺寸的过程中,假设质量泛函为回声参数和尺寸参数。结果。矩形梯形形式的腔室最适合嵌入工业场所。得到了保证工作区域内不存在一阶和二阶反射的腔室几何尺寸表达式。找出了消声室后壁偏转角的最佳值。结论。在此基础上,实现了一个小范围的天线测量消声室。
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE STRATEGIC EFFICIENCY OF LARGE-SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN A SITUATION OF UNCERTAINTY: A PROJECT APPROACH 不确定情况下大型基础设施项目战略效率评估:项目方法
Y. Gelrud, E. Kibalov
The article deals with the problems of assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of large-scale projects at the stage that is commonly called pre-investment. The necessity of taking into account the factor of radical uncertainty when evaluating large-scale railway projects is justified. The pur-pose of the study. To show that the effects generated by large-scale projects affect the scenario of the development of the economy hosting the project. In this problematic situation, a methodology is proposed for evaluating and identifying the most preferable project, taking into account the factors of radical (improbability) uncertainty. Materials and methods. The criteria for evaluating projects at three levels are analyzed: macro-, meso- and micro; at the same time, the tools of applied non-system analysis are used, combining logical-heuristic and economic-mathematical models of mak-ing complex project decisions. Results. A structural evaluation model has been developed, which is a hybrid consisting of two blocks. The first block is a logical-heuristic submodel for evaluating large-scale investment projects, the second block is an economic-mathematical submodel that displays the external environment of projects. The models interact at the pre-investment stage of the project lifecycle in the mode of a strategic game at the macro level. The first as an information base is based on expert estimates of the costs and results of projects that claim to be implemented in the long term, the second-mainly on statistical information from the country and regions. The im-pact of a new large-scale investment project on the model of the Russian economy is evaluated and the positive or negative impact of each (from among the considered ones) on the target function of the economic model is identified. Conclusion. The article comments on the results of experimental calculations using a hybrid model and, using the example of railway transport, formulates recom-mendations for its use in the development of substantiating materials for large-scale projects of fe-deral significance.
本文讨论了在通常称为投资前阶段评估大型项目宏观经济效率的问题。在评价大型铁路项目时,考虑根本不确定性因素的必要性是合理的。研究的目的。表明大型项目所产生的影响会影响项目所在国的经济发展情景。在这种有问题的情况下,提出了一种方法来评估和确定最可取的项目,考虑到根本(非概率)不确定性的因素。材料和方法。分析了宏观、中观和微观三个层次评价项目的标准;同时,应用非系统分析工具,结合逻辑启发式模型和经济数学模型进行复杂项目决策。结果。建立了一个由两个区块组成的混合结构评价模型。第一部分是评估大型投资项目的逻辑启发式子模型,第二部分是展示项目外部环境的经济数学子模型。这些模型在项目生命周期的投资前阶段以宏观层面的战略博弈模式相互作用。第一个作为信息库是根据专家对声称长期执行的项目的费用和结果的估计,第二个主要是根据来自国家和区域的统计资料。评估了一个新的大型投资项目对俄罗斯经济模型的影响,并确定了每个项目(从考虑的项目中)对经济模型目标函数的积极或消极影响。结论。本文对使用混合模型的实验计算结果进行了评论,并以铁路运输为例,提出了在开发具有联邦意义的大型项目的材料时使用混合模型的建议。
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引用次数: 1
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Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics
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