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An Approach to the Transformation of a Virtual Metastructure of a Digital Design Twin of a Machine-building Enterprise Corporate Information System 某机械制造企业企业信息系统数字设计孪生体虚拟元结构转换研究
A. Sapozhnikov, A. A. Kuznetsov, A. S. Mavrina, G. Kulikov, Ufa Scientific, Production Enterprise “Molniya”
Currently, the methodology of system engineering is being formed, the product of which is, as usual, the creation of real objects information models, supplemented by virtual components, and on the contrary, virtual objects, supplemented by real components. For example, an information model of a technological object is a specification of real equipment, supplemented by a specification of the purchased equipment of a technological process and on the contrary. By analogy with general engineering in the field of technical activity, the metastructures of such information models must meet the V-shaped structure of the validation and verification processes. Therefore, models should be regularly checked during their life cycle to ensure that their structure and parameters correspond to real and virtual objects. At the present, there are conditions for a coordinated decision of technological objects system information modeling, taking into account their internal (physical) structure and of the digital environment the external structure. In general theoretical terms, the construction of system models is based on the problem of formal consistent description (grammatical calculus) of the structure and functional regularities of a set of objects and their connections in the subject area under study. The presented approach of the subject area system modeling under consideration is based on the classical model of a machine-building enterprise (MP) educational and production activities and a university. Aim. To apply the principles of the design approach for the formation of a corporate information system (CIS) engineering company metastructure digital twin, to explore the prospects of its application, to show the key information components in the management of subject-oriented knowledge and data, as well as the ability to scale technology in the formation of a digital environment for architecture and modern MP, improving the efficiency of business processes participants interaction. Materials and methods. The principles of the system engineering methodo¬logy (process approach, life cycle, etc.), an integrated approach and structural analysis of the design process according to the SADT (Structured Analysis and Design Technology) methodology, and the TOGAF (The Open Group Architecture Framework) methodology are used. Results. The proposed approach for system modeling the subject area is the development of works of the authors, demonstrates the possibility of scaling on the example of interaction of participants of the REC using part of the University's digital twin KIS enterprises of the real sector of the economy. The requisite of developing a knowledge management model and the increasing role of information search engines are shown. Conclusion. The proposed approach expands the application of the digital twin metastructure, allows correcting the enterprise architecture to improve the efficiency of business processes.
目前,系统工程的方法论正在形成,其产物通常是建立实物信息模型,辅以虚拟构件,反之则是虚拟实物,辅以真实构件。例如,一个技术对象的信息模型是一个实际设备的规格,辅以一个工艺过程的购买设备的规格,反之亦然。与技术活动领域的一般工程类似,此类信息模型的元结构必须满足验证和验证过程的v形结构。因此,在模型的生命周期中,应定期对其进行检查,以确保其结构和参数与真实物体和虚拟物体相对应。目前,考虑到技术对象的内部(物理)结构和数字环境的外部结构,进行协调决策的技术对象系统信息建模已具备条件。在一般的理论术语中,系统模型的构建是基于对所研究的学科领域中一组对象及其联系的结构和功能规律的形式一致描述(语法演算)问题。本文提出的学科领域系统建模方法是基于机械制造企业(MP)教育生产活动和大学的经典模型。的目标。将设计方法的原理应用于企业信息系统(CIS)工程公司元结构数字孪生体的形成,探讨其应用前景,展示面向主体的知识和数据管理中的关键信息组件,以及在构建数字环境和现代MP中扩展技术的能力,提高业务流程参与者交互的效率。材料和方法。使用系统工程方法(过程方法、生命周期等)的原理,根据SADT(结构化分析和设计技术)方法和TOGAF(开放组体系结构框架)方法对设计过程进行集成方法和结构分析。结果。对主题领域进行系统建模的建议方法是作者的作品的发展,展示了在REC参与者互动的例子上扩展的可能性,使用大学的数字孪生KIS企业的实体经济部门的一部分。指出了建立知识管理模型的必要性和信息搜索引擎日益重要的作用。结论。提出的方法扩展了数字孪生元结构的应用,允许对企业体系结构进行修正以提高业务流程的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Information Measuring System for Correction of Working Memory Parameters in the Learning Processes 学习过程中工作记忆参数修正的信息测量系统
A. Petrenko, V. Kublanov
2021, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 36–46 36 Introduction At the present stage of science and technology progress, in the context of the integration of the latest technologies, a person must have the ability to materialize his capabilities for active participation in social life. In this process, a special role is assigned to the development of learning technology, and the assessment of individual human learning abilities. In connection with the rapid development of the technical component of complex systems against the background of a decrease in the general educational level of training, ensuring effective training of specialists in complex technical systems is currently becoming an urgent task [1]. Learning disabilities can lead to poor performance in the child (student), which is unexpected when considering their potential, intelligence quotient (IQ), quality of the learning process, intact sensory system, adequate motivation, and appropriate learning conditions. It is worth noting that learning disabilities are specific in the sense that they affect certain areas of information processing (for example, reading, writing and math), in contrast to the global difficulties seen in children with intellectual disabilities. Although they have medium to high IQ, people with disabilities do not learn as quickly as others. This indicates that their problem cannot be simply explained by an impaired intellectual development, the reasons may be more complex phenomena that should be paid attention to [2]. People with learning disabilities may have deficits in one or more cognitive processes [3], including phonological processing, long-term information retrieval, attention, short-term memory, and working memory. Among several cognitive processes, working memory was found to be closely related to acaDOI: 10.14529/ctcr210204
2021,第21卷,第21期。36引言在科技进步的现阶段,在最新技术融合的背景下,一个人必须有能力将自己积极参与社会生活的能力具体化。在这个过程中,学习技术的发展和个人学习能力的评估被赋予了特殊的作用。在一般教育培训水平下降的背景下,复杂系统的技术组成部分迅速发展,确保复杂技术系统专家的有效培训目前正成为一项紧迫任务[1]。学习障碍会导致儿童(学生)表现不佳,考虑到他们的潜力、智商(IQ)、学习过程的质量、完整的感觉系统、充分的动机和适当的学习条件,这是意想不到的。值得注意的是,学习障碍是特定的,因为它们影响信息处理的某些领域(例如,阅读、写作和数学),与智力残疾儿童的全球性困难形成鲜明对比。虽然他们有中等到高的智商,但残疾人的学习速度不如其他人快。这表明他们的问题不能简单地用智力发育障碍来解释,原因可能是更复杂的现象,需要引起重视[2]。学习障碍患者可能在一个或多个认知过程中存在缺陷[3],包括语音加工、长期信息检索、注意力、短期记忆和工作记忆。在多个认知过程中,工作记忆与acaDOI: 10.14529/ctcr210204密切相关
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引用次数: 0
Role of Open Source Software in Modern Development of Enterprise Information Systems 开源软件在现代企业信息系统开发中的作用
A. Shinkarev, Llc “Softmast-IT”
At the moment there are many open source software products and packages, and their number is increasing every day. So it can be concluded that publishing source code is becoming more and more popular in the world of software development. When publishing the source code of a software solution or software package for use in the developer community, special attention should be given to the license type – this affects which scenarios will be available for use of the published package or software solution. It is also necessary to draw up full and detailed documentation and decide on the ways to promote the published package among developers. The purpose of the study was to justify the feasibility and necessity of publishing software products, packages and libraries for their use by other developers to build their own systems and services. The author meant to describe the major open source licenses, identify their features and differences, and those situations for which this or that type of license is suitable, as well as to demonstrate the need of writing documentation and describe ways to promote and popularize published software products, packages, and libraries in the developer community. Materials and methods. The paper considers official license documents describing conditions of use, reproduction, and distribution. The author analyzes the main ways and means to promote open source software products. Results. The article substantiates the relevance of publishing and using the source code of a software product, package or library. The author describes the main provisions of the most common licenses and gives advice on choosing the type of license when publishing source code for free use. The necessity of writing documentation for the published software product is substantiated. The article also describes some of the ways to promote published packages, such as the choice of name, speaking at conferences, and publishing articles with case studies.
目前有许多开源软件产品和软件包,它们的数量每天都在增加。因此,可以得出结论,发布源代码在软件开发领域变得越来越流行。在发布供开发人员社区使用的软件解决方案或软件包的源代码时,应特别注意许可证类型——这将影响哪些场景可以使用已发布的包或软件解决方案。还需要制定完整和详细的文档,并决定如何在开发人员中推广已发布的包。这项研究的目的是证明发布软件产品、软件包和库的可行性和必要性,以便其他开发人员使用它们来构建自己的系统和服务。作者打算描述主要的开源许可证,确定它们的特性和差异,以及适合这种或那种许可证的情况,以及演示编写文档的必要性,并描述在开发人员社区中推广和普及已发布的软件产品、软件包和库的方法。材料和方法。本文考虑描述使用、复制和分发条件的官方许可文件。作者分析了推广开源软件产品的主要途径和手段。结果。本文证实了发布和使用软件产品、软件包或库的源代码的相关性。作者描述了最常见的许可证的主要条款,并给出了在发布免费使用源代码时选择许可证类型的建议。为已发布的软件产品编写文档的必要性得到了证实。本文还介绍了一些推广已发布包的方法,例如选择名称、在会议上发言以及发布带有案例研究的文章。
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引用次数: 0
Regression Forecasts of Irrigated Winter Crop Yields Us-ing Satellite Vegetation Indexеs: Models, Predictors and Experiments 基于卫星植被指数的冬季灌溉作物产量回归预测:模型、预测因子和实验
Z. Khalil, S. Abdullaev
The technologies of agrometeorological crop forecasts (ACF), based on data on the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) are an important element of the modern agricultural industry. Aim. To establish the heuristic yield model and approaches to the development of models of regression forecasts, including the ACF predictors selection procedure by exploring satellite Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data and conduct experimental forecasting. Materials and methods. The official yield statistics of irrigated winter wheat and barley in Diwaniyah province of Iraq and the NDVI MODIS observation for 2001–2019 are used. It is proposed to choose a two-component heuristic yield model containing a yield trend, due to a relatively slow change in crop cultivation technology and a climatic component associated with fluctuations in biological productivity due to the effects of weather conditions. Results. Using of heuristic model as background, an object-oriented approach to the choice of ACF regression model and predictor selection is developed. Firstly, we use NDVI semi-quantitative connection with crop coverage and crop leaf indexes to determine NDVI evolution according with the wheat and barley growing stages. Then, it is shown that in the province level ACF, as the original predictors should choose the NDVI time-series derived on the first and second half of February for three distinct grain-producing regions of the pro-vince. Experiments have shown that the satisfactory quality of the regressive ACF of both cultures can be achieved with 2–3 different original non-collinear predictors by their combination with the last year's yield or by inclusion of linear or quadratic dependencies. Conclusion. Wheat forecast with a relative error of 10% is obtained only by special selecting of time interval to train model and by control the parameters of the auto-regressive predictor. The high quality of the barley forecasting models is due to the fact that the variability of barley yields is dominated by the climatic component. The developed object-oriented approach can be adapted to the conditions of rainfed agriculture and to forecast of yield of other crops.
基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据的农业气象作物预报技术是现代农业产业的重要组成部分。的目标。通过探索卫星MODIS NDVI数据,建立启发式产量模型和回归预测模型的开发方法,包括ACF预测因子的选择过程,并进行实验预测。材料和方法。使用伊拉克迪瓦尼耶省灌溉冬小麦和大麦的官方产量统计数据和2001-2019年NDVI MODIS观测数据。考虑到作物栽培技术的变化相对缓慢,以及气候因素对生物生产力波动的影响,建议选择包含产量趋势的双组分启发式产量模型。结果。以启发式模型为背景,提出了一种面向对象的ACF回归模型选择和预测器选择方法。首先,利用NDVI与作物盖度和作物叶片指数的半定量联系,确定了NDVI随小麦和大麦生长阶段的演变规律;结果表明,在省级ACF中,作为原始预测因子,对于全省三个不同的产粮区,应选择2月上半月的NDVI时间序列作为原始预测因子。实验表明,两种培养的回归ACF可以通过2-3种不同的原始非共线性预测因子与去年的产量相结合或通过包含线性或二次依赖关系来实现令人满意的质量。结论。通过对模型训练时间间隔的特殊选择和自回归预测器参数的控制,获得了相对误差在10%以内的小麦预报结果。大麦预测模型的高质量是由于大麦产量的变异性主要受气候因素的影响。所开发的面向对象方法可以适用于旱作农业的条件和其他作物的产量预测。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Fuzzy Logic to Assess Banks' Credit Risk 模糊逻辑在银行信用风险评价中的应用
M. Ozerova, Nicolay Stoletovs, I. Zhigalov
The banking system is a constantly evolving system. The information environment of the bank is growing, the volumes of processed information are increasing due to the growth of users and banking products. To reduce risks, banks make a financial assessment of the situation of individuals and legal entities. The aim of the work is to develop fuzzy multi-connected models designed to predict the receipt of a positive or negative decision to receive a banking product. The decision is made based on scoring. Scoring consists in assigning points for completing a certain questionnaire developed by underwriters of credit risk assessors. Based on the results of the points gained, the system automatically makes a decision on approving or refusing to issue a loan. Different banks have diffe¬rent scoring models. Purpose of the study. The paper considers the use of fuzzy models for making a decision by a bank to issue a banking product that implements the concept of “soft computing”. Methods. The use of fuzzy logic methods in credit scoring is not new, but it is not widely used in practice because it is expensive to integrate into existing systems. Each bank uses its own indicators of the client's financial reliability in scoring. Most of the indicators in banks are the same, but when deciding to issue different banking products, they have different numerical values. The data of the standard scoring methodology of a real bank were taken as the initial data. To predict a bank's decision to issue a banking product to a client, a fuzzy model was applied, production rules were proposed, and membership functions were determined. The model focused on the simultaneous processing of incoming data from multiple clients and for different banks and different scoring models. Results. The developed mathematical model for assessing the client's rating and predicting the decision to receive a banking product based on the fuzzy inference rule. The obtained results are proposed to be used in a multi-banking web-oriented system of providing banking products to corporate clients.
银行体系是一个不断发展的体系。银行的信息环境越来越大,由于用户和银行产品的增长,处理的信息量也在不断增加。为了降低风险,银行对个人和法人的财务状况进行评估。这项工作的目的是开发模糊多连接模型,旨在预测接收银行产品的积极或消极决策的接收。决定是根据得分做出的。评分包括对完成由信用风险评估机构的承销商制定的某种问卷进行打分。根据获得的积分结果,系统自动做出批准或拒绝发放贷款的决定。不同的银行有不同的评分模型。研究目的:本文考虑使用模糊模型来决定银行发行一种实现“软计算”概念的银行产品。方法。模糊逻辑方法在信用评分中的应用并不新鲜,但由于将其集成到现有系统中成本高昂,因此在实践中并未得到广泛应用。每家银行在评分时都使用自己的客户财务可靠性指标。大多数银行的指标是相同的,但在决定发行不同的银行产品时,它们的数值是不同的。选取一家真实银行的标准评分方法数据作为初始数据。为了预测银行向客户发行银行产品的决策,应用了模糊模型,提出了生产规则,确定了隶属函数。该模型侧重于同时处理来自多个客户、不同银行和不同评分模型的传入数据。结果。建立了基于模糊推理规则的客户评级评估和接收银行产品决策预测的数学模型。所得结果将应用于面向企业客户提供银行产品的多银行网络系统中。
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引用次数: 0
Program and Project Approaches to Solving Large-Scale Environmental Problems 解决大规模环境问题的计划和项目方法
Y. Gelrud, E. Kibalov, V. Malov
The article discusses the federal program “Ecology of the Angara-Yenisei region (AYR)”. The description of the systemic synthesis of different approaches to the assessment of the program of restoration and preservation of the natural complex of the Yenisei, as the skeletal basis of the ecological-assimilation potential of AEP is given. The necessity of taking into account the uncertainty factor when evaluating large-scale environmental projects is substantiated. Purpose of the study. Show that the effects of large-scale projects affect the very scenario of economic development, in this regard, it is incorrect to use the primitive integration of an alternative (strategy) into the same scenario, it is shown that it is necessary to evaluate the “project – scenario” relationship. Materials and methods. The authors propose to use three levels of assessment for evaluating large-scale projects: macro level, meso level and micro level. This classification allows you to gradually reduce the level of uncertainty. The information obtained at the previous level of assessment is the source for the lower level. Results. At the first stage, the judgments of the experts were processed using computer products developed at the IEIE. At the second step, the National Project “Ecology of Russia” was analyzed, consisting of 11 federal projects, and a mathematical model was developed for the multicriteria problem of optimal cost management of the project, taking into account the uncertainty factor. The result of the third step was the creation of a hybrid model for assessing large-scale environmental projects from a logical-heuristic model based on expert information and an economic-mathematical model. Analogs of such models, created with the participation of the authors, work in the evaluation of large-scale railway projects. This refers to a family of semi-dynamic optimization models, which have been tested to varying degrees in solving meso-level problems, both in planned and market economies. Moreover, on the basis of one of the versions of this family, a medical-ecological-economic model was developed, and with its help, a scenario analysis of the development of the subjects of the Asian part of Russia was carried out. Conclusion. The article provides a brief description of the functionality and the need to use the appropriate mathematical and software tools as the stages of large-scale projects progress from concept to implementation.
本文讨论了联邦计划“安加拉-叶尼塞地区生态(AYR)”。对叶尼塞自然复合体恢复和保护方案评估的不同方法的系统综合进行了描述,作为AEP生态同化潜力的骨架基础。论证了在评价大型环境项目时考虑不确定性因素的必要性。研究目的:表明大型项目的影响影响经济发展的非常情景,在这方面,使用替代(战略)的原始整合到同一情景是不正确的,这表明有必要评估“项目-情景”的关系。材料和方法。本文提出对大型项目进行宏观、中观和微观三个层次的评价。这种分类允许您逐渐减少不确定性。在前一级评估中获得的信息是下一级评估的来源。结果。在第一阶段,使用IEIE开发的计算机产品对专家的判断进行处理。第二步,对由11个联邦项目组成的“俄罗斯生态”国家项目进行了分析,建立了考虑不确定性因素的项目最优成本管理多准则问题的数学模型。第三步的结果是创建了一个用于评估大型环境项目的混合模型,该模型是基于专家信息的逻辑启发式模型和经济数学模型。在作者的参与下创建的类似模型用于大型铁路项目的评估。这是一组半动态优化模型,在计划经济和市场经济中,这些模型在解决中观问题方面都得到了不同程度的检验。此外,在这个家庭的一个版本的基础上,开发了一个医疗-生态-经济模型,并在其帮助下,对俄罗斯亚洲部分的主题发展进行了情景分析。结论。本文简要描述了在大型项目从概念到实现的各个阶段中使用适当的数学和软件工具的功能和需求。
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引用次数: 0
Solution of the Problem of Odometric Positioning of a Mining Machine under the Ground by Using a Kalman Filter 用卡尔曼滤波解决矿机地下测距定位问题
I. Shevelev, A. Zatonskiy
In the modern mining industry, an urgent technical challenge is the introduction of automatic systems that provide orientation and positioning of mining machines during the development of industrial seams. There are several basic technologies used for positioning combines underground, but their scope is limited by various mining, geological and technological factors. In the conditions of industrial development of VKMKS seams, the vast majority of them are not suitable. Aim. To develop a new approach to the problem of odometric positioning of a mining machine under the ground, as well as to create a simulation model that allows with the required degree of accuracy to determine the current and predicted distance of the miner from the start of production in conditions of noisy measurements. Materials and methods. As a technical solution to the task, the use of BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) technology is proposed: iBeacon beacons will be dropped in the direction of the combine's movement, and a sensor attached to the rear of the loading bunker will read the distance to the beacon. For simulation modeling of uncertainty during the movement of the combine, the hypothesis of the normal distribution of the speed of movement on sections of random length was considered. When simulating the dropping of the beacon, the hypothesis was used that the scattering value of the beacon upon falling is a two-dimensional normally distributed random variable. Noisy measurements were generated by a stochastic process with increasing scatter boundaries as the sensor moved away from the beacon. The Kalman filter was used as a tool for processing measurement noise. Results. A model has been created that simulates random speeds of the combine's movement on sections of random length, and also a random spread when throwing off Blue¬tooth beacons has been simulated. To generate sensor measurements, an algorithm has been deve¬loped that takes into account the increase in the noise level of the readings when moving away from the nearest dropped beacon. To process the simulated measurements and correctly determine the distance of the beacon-sensor, the Kalman filtering algorithm was used. Conclusion. The proposed approach and the created simulation model make it possible, with a given degree of accuracy, to determine and predict the distance to the withdrawing shearer when mining industrial seams.
在现代采矿工业中,一项紧迫的技术挑战是在工业煤层开发过程中引入自动系统,为采矿机器提供定向和定位。井下组合定位有几种基本技术,但其应用范围受采矿、地质和技术等因素的限制。在VKMKS煤层的工业发展条件下,绝大多数是不适合的。的目标。开发一种新的方法来解决地下采矿机器的里程表定位问题,并创建一个仿真模型,该模型允许在噪声测量条件下以所需的精度确定矿工从生产开始的当前和预测距离。材料和方法。作为这项任务的技术解决方案,提出了使用BLE(低功耗蓝牙)技术:iBeacon信标将在联合收割机的运动方向上投放,并且附着在装载掩体后部的传感器将读取到信标的距离。对于联合收割机运动不确定性的仿真建模,考虑了运动速度在随机长度截面上的正态分布假设。在模拟信标下落时,假设信标下落时的散射值为二维正态分布随机变量。噪声测量是由一个随机过程产生的,随着传感器远离信标而增加散射边界。采用卡尔曼滤波作为处理测量噪声的工具。结果。已经建立了一个模型来模拟联合收割机在随机长度路段上的随机移动速度,并且还模拟了投掷蓝牙信标时的随机传播。为了产生传感器测量值,已经开发了一种算法,该算法考虑了当远离最近的丢失信标时读数噪声水平的增加。为了对模拟测量结果进行处理,正确确定信标传感器的距离,采用了卡尔曼滤波算法。结论。所提出的方法和所建立的仿真模型可以在一定的精度下确定和预测工业煤层开采时到回采机的距离。
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引用次数: 0
The Project of Creation of an Aviation Product as a Special Class of Innovation 航空产品创新专项项目
I. Mustaev, V. Ivanov, G. Kulikov, Timur Mustaev, J. Scientific, Production Enterprise “Molniya”
The article is devoted to the presentation of the conceptual and categorical apparatus of projects for the creation of complex technical products of a new generation. It is shown that the classification of the projects under consideration creates methodological prerequisites for increasing the accuracy and quality of forecasts of time and resources. It is asserted that in the general set of innovative processes, innovative projects for creating a new generation of aviation products fall into an independent subgroup of innovative projects for creating complex technical objects of a new generation. Allocation of a separate subgroup of projects allows you to form specific methods of modeling, analysis, forecasting and management for them. Materials and methods. Justification is carried out in the form of a logical conclusion. There are four indicators that characterize the design processes. Based on the analysis of the features of the projects for the creation of aircraft products, it was concluded that it is necessary to clarify the set of criteria for projects to create complex equipment of a new generation. For this group of projects, in addition to the existing four criteria of goals, timing, resources and organization of project execution, it is proposed to add a fifth criterion – the criterion of project uncertainty. Result. It is shown that in the aggregate a group of five criteria makes it possible to single out from the whole set of innovative processes associated with the creation of new technology, a subgroup of processes for creating complex technology of a new generation. The differences between the interpretation of uncertainty adopted in the work and the interpretation of uncertainty used in the project analysis as a set of risks accompanying projects are noted. Conclusion. An integral criterion for the magnitude of sociophysical potential has been formed, combining the criteria of goals, timing, resources, organization and uncertainty of innovative projects. An example of the interpretation of the integral criterion for the case of creating a new gene¬ration aircraft product is given.
本文致力于介绍为创造新一代复杂技术产品而设计的概念和分类装置。结果表明,对所考虑的项目进行分类为提高时间和资源预测的准确性和质量创造了方法上的先决条件。认为在创新过程的总集合中,新一代航空产品创新项目属于新一代复杂技术对象创新项目的独立子组。分配一个单独的项目子组允许您形成特定的建模、分析、预测和管理方法。材料和方法。证明是以逻辑结论的形式进行的。有四个指标可以描述设计过程。在分析飞机产品制造项目特点的基础上,认为有必要为制造新一代复杂设备的项目制定一套标准。对于这组项目,除了现有的项目执行目标、时间、资源和组织四个准则外,建议增加第五个准则——项目不确定性准则。结果。结果表明,总的来说,由五个标准组成的一组可以从与创造新技术相关的整套创新过程中挑出一个用于创造新一代复杂技术的过程子组。注意到工作中采用的不确定性解释与项目分析中作为伴随项目的一组风险使用的不确定性解释之间的差异。结论。结合创新项目的目标、时间、资源、组织和不确定性等标准,形成了衡量社会物理潜力大小的综合标准。最后给出了在制造新一代飞机产品的情况下对积分判据的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Finite-Difference Models Application for Short-Term Forecasting of the Natural Resource Potential of the Perm Region 有限差分模型在彼尔姆地区自然资源潜力短期预测中的应用
N. Sirotina, A. Kopoteva, A. Zatonskiy
The article is about a problem of mathematical modeling of the natural resource potential of the Perm Territory by 1st and 2nd order finite-difference models. Such models can obtain better forecasts of complex socio-economic processes in comparison with the traditionally used linear multiple regression models. A high quality model of the natural resource potential with forecast possibi¬lities is one of the necessary conditions for the effective management of the natural resources of the region in order to ensure its sustainable economic development. Purpose of work. Aim of this work is work construction of finite-difference models of a natural resource potential complex indicators and an assessment of their prognostic properties. Materials and methods. Our research is based on Perm region statistical data for the period from 2001 to 2018. A multiple linear regression model is used as a comparison base. The natural resource potential complex indicator is calculated as a weighted sum of particular criteria characterizing the natural resources of the region. First and second order finite difference models are obtained by adding autoregressive terms of the first and second orders, respectively, to the multiple linear regression model. An estimation of the unknown parameters of the equations is carried out by a modified least squares method, which preserves the signs of the coefficients with the factors the same as in the original linear model. At the same time, the selection of explanatory factors and the assessment of the quality of the models are carried out based on the accuracy of the predicted values of the studied indicator. The results of the study. Components and factors of the natural resource potential is obtained, and a procedure for constructing finite-difference models is performed for three different time intervals: 2001–2018, 2001–2008, and 2008–2018. These intervals are chooseen because changes in the methodology for generating statistical data nearly 2008. Discussion and conclusions. The number of calculated predicted values was 18, and only in 4 out of 18 cases (22,2%) their quality is worse than forecasts obtained by the linear multiple model. So proposed modification of the multiple linear regression model with the addition of autoregressive terms makes it possible to improve the forecasting quality of the complex indicator of the natural resource potential of the region and, therefore, to make more effective decisions when managing its level.
本文研究了用一阶和二阶有限差分模型对彼尔姆地区自然资源潜力进行数学建模的问题。与传统的线性多元回归模型相比,这种模型可以更好地预测复杂的社会经济过程。一个具有预测可能性的高质量自然资源潜力模型是有效管理该地区自然资源以保证其经济可持续发展的必要条件之一。工作目的。本工作的目的是建立自然资源潜力复杂指标的有限差分模型,并对其预测特性进行评估。材料和方法。我们的研究基于2001年至2018年彼尔姆地区的统计数据。采用多元线性回归模型作为比较基础。自然资源潜力复合指标是用表征该区域自然资源的特定标准的加权和来计算的。在多元线性回归模型中分别加入一阶和二阶自回归项,得到一阶和二阶有限差分模型。采用改进的最小二乘法对方程的未知参数进行估计,该方法保留了与原始线性模型相同的因子系数的符号。同时,根据所研究指标预测值的准确性,进行解释因子的选择和模型质量的评价。研究的结果。在此基础上,对2001-2018年、2001-2008年和2008-2018年三个不同时间区间的自然资源潜力进行有限差分模型构建。之所以选择这些区间,是因为2008年前后产生统计数据的方法发生了变化。讨论和结论。计算出的预测值为18个,其中只有4个(22.2%)的预测质量低于线性多元模型的预测质量。因此,本文提出的对多元线性回归模型进行修正,加入自回归项,可以提高该地区自然资源潜力复杂指标的预测质量,从而在管理其水平时做出更有效的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Management of the State and Development of Human Resources of Industrial Enterprise in Accordance with the Dynamics of the Influence External and Internal Fac-tors 从外部和内部因素影响的动态看工业企业人力资源的管理与开发
K. A. Korennaya, O. Loginovskiy, V. V. Zakharov
The specifics of human resource management primarily consider the work with the personnel of enterprises and organizations, and the basic concept that existed earlier said that the human resource and personnel of enterprises and organizations are some expenses that need to be constantly repaid. Now, personnel-human resources are considered as the resources of the enterprise, and this approach is used to increase the understanding of the belonging of employees and more effective use of their competencies in the organization system. Respectively, as resources are one of the most important characteristics of the enterprise and personnel should be attributed to the resources necessary for the sustainable development and functioning of the enterprise. The general concept of human resource management provides for a set of certain beliefs and suggestions that are formed and focused in one company, so you can talk about the corporate culture, about specific factors that are accepted in the company, and are, in turn, also a certain resource. The aim of the study is to form an up-to-date approach to improving the efficiency of human resource management at an industrial enterprise. Materials and methods. As part of the materials and methods, it is necessary to note the analysis of approaches, methods and models of human resource management presented in the scientific and technical literature, as well as the results of their implementation in the practice of industrial enterprise management. Results. The article substantiates the main scientific provisions and the need to form a general strategy for personnel development, which forms employees' self-determination in the organizational structure of the enterprise and the vector of their development, and the management has a clear idea in the development of personnel management decisions. Conclusion. A vague formulation, the absence of a personnel development strategy or its inconsistency with the general strategy of the enterprise and the dynamics of the influence of external and internal factors creates some uncertainty, which further leads to the “turnover” of personnel and does not allow achieving the goals set by the management of the enterprise.
人力资源管理的具体内容主要考虑的是与企业和组织的人员进行的工作,之前存在的基本概念认为企业和组织的人力资源和人员是一些需要不断偿还的费用。现在,将人员-人力资源视为企业的资源,使用这种方法是为了增加对员工归属感的理解,更有效地利用他们在组织系统中的能力。分别,由于资源是企业最重要的特征之一,人员应归于企业可持续发展和运作所必需的资源。人力资源管理的一般概念提供了一套特定的信念和建议,这些信念和建议是在一个公司形成和集中的,所以你可以谈论企业文化,谈论公司接受的具体因素,反过来,也是一种资源。这项研究的目的是形成一种最新的方法来提高工业企业人力资源管理的效率。材料和方法。作为材料和方法的一部分,有必要注意对科技文献中提出的人力资源管理的途径、方法和模型的分析,以及它们在工业企业管理实践中的实施结果。结果。文章充实了主要的科学规定和形成人才发展总体战略的必要性,形成了员工在企业组织结构中的自决权和自身发展的载体,管理层在人事管理决策的发展中有了清晰的思路。结论。人事发展战略的制定含糊不清,缺乏人事发展战略或与企业总体战略不一致,以及外部和内部因素影响的动态变化,造成了一定的不确定性,从而导致人员的“周转”,无法实现企业管理层设定的目标。
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Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics
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