Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100646
Zimeng Fan , Yuting Guo , Lei Song , Junrong Du , Hongfei Wang , Xuzhi Li
Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable breakthroughs in predicting the state of health (SOH) for lithium-ion batteries. However, conventional methods face critical challenges in cross-domain adaptation, inter-dataset generalization, and long-horizon forecasting due to variations in usage conditions and electrochemical characteristics. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs), time-series foundation models (TSFMs) offer an alternative solution to overcome the issues above. Nevertheless, studies to explore the generalization enhancement capability of TSFMs for battery SOH forecasting under different cross domain factors remain insufficient. Therefore, a novel TSFMs based framework named BatteryTSFM is proposed for SOH forecasting. First, we introduce backbone-aware temporal resampling that dynamically adapts preprocessing to structural characteristics of diverse TSFMs, enabling optimal cross-domain generalization through feature scaling. Second, Monte Carlo dropout is integrated into autoregressive inference to quantify the multi-step prediction errors. Across four public datasets, BatteryTSFM reduces RMSE by an average of 35% in cross-condition tasks and 88% in cross-chemistry tasks, indicating that foundation-model methods can deliver reliable long-horizon SOH forecasts for energy systems. We also conduct exploratory analyses that link generalization to fine-tuning dataset size and resampling granularity, yielding practical guidance for deployment.
{"title":"BatteryTSFM: Generalizable long-horizon degradation prediction across conditions and chemistries via time series foundation models","authors":"Zimeng Fan , Yuting Guo , Lei Song , Junrong Du , Hongfei Wang , Xuzhi Li","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable breakthroughs in predicting the state of health (SOH) for lithium-ion batteries. However, conventional methods face critical challenges in cross-domain adaptation, inter-dataset generalization, and long-horizon forecasting due to variations in usage conditions and electrochemical characteristics. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs), time-series foundation models (TSFMs) offer an alternative solution to overcome the issues above. Nevertheless, studies to explore the generalization enhancement capability of TSFMs for battery SOH forecasting under different cross domain factors remain insufficient. Therefore, a novel TSFMs based framework named BatteryTSFM is proposed for SOH forecasting. First, we introduce backbone-aware temporal resampling that dynamically adapts preprocessing to structural characteristics of diverse TSFMs, enabling optimal cross-domain generalization through feature scaling. Second, Monte Carlo dropout is integrated into autoregressive inference to quantify the multi-step prediction errors. Across four public datasets, BatteryTSFM reduces RMSE by an average of 35% in cross-condition tasks and 88% in cross-chemistry tasks, indicating that foundation-model methods can deliver reliable long-horizon SOH forecasts for energy systems. We also conduct exploratory analyses that link generalization to fine-tuning dataset size and resampling granularity, yielding practical guidance for deployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100646"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100650
Yanbo Chen , Qintao Du , Tuben Qiang , Liangcheng Cheng , Yongkang She , Zhi Zhang
Wind power forecasting (WPF) accuracy is fundamentally constrained by two critical challenges. First, the high-order nonlinear relationship between wind speed (WS) and power (WP) substantially amplifies errors inherent in numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. Second, conventional models process all input features uniformly, failing to distinguish the dominant role of the primary driving feature from the complementary roles of auxiliary features. To decouple and address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel forecasting method (CFRM-DCM) that integrates a Correction Factor Representation Model (CFRM) and a Dual-Channel Mechanism (DCM). The CFRM is first employed to address the NWP error. It describes the complex correlation and forecasting error between measured WS and NWP WS as correction factors. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is then utilized to learn the distribution of these factors and output a corrected, more accurate WS. This corrected data is then fed into the DCM, a dual-branch architecture designed to enhance complex feature extraction, overcoming the limitations of traditional single-channel structures. The proposed method is validated on four wind farms. Simulation results demonstrate that the CFRM-DCM method achieves significant improvements in WPF accuracy, with error reductions ranging from 3.9 % to 9.4 % across ultra-short-term and short-term timescales. This enhanced WPF performance is directly attributed to the model's ability to first improve WS accuracy, with gains of 8.8 %, 7.6 %, 8.3 %, and 8.8 % for the respective farms.
{"title":"Dual-channel representation learning with wind speed correction factor for enhanced wind power forecasting","authors":"Yanbo Chen , Qintao Du , Tuben Qiang , Liangcheng Cheng , Yongkang She , Zhi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wind power forecasting (WPF) accuracy is fundamentally constrained by two critical challenges. First, the high-order nonlinear relationship between wind speed (WS) and power (WP) substantially amplifies errors inherent in numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. Second, conventional models process all input features uniformly, failing to distinguish the dominant role of the primary driving feature from the complementary roles of auxiliary features. To decouple and address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel forecasting method (CFRM-DCM) that integrates a Correction Factor Representation Model (CFRM) and a Dual-Channel Mechanism (DCM). The CFRM is first employed to address the NWP error. It describes the complex correlation and forecasting error between measured WS and NWP WS as correction factors. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is then utilized to learn the distribution of these factors and output a corrected, more accurate WS. This corrected data is then fed into the DCM, a dual-branch architecture designed to enhance complex feature extraction, overcoming the limitations of traditional single-channel structures. The proposed method is validated on four wind farms. Simulation results demonstrate that the CFRM-DCM method achieves significant improvements in WPF accuracy, with error reductions ranging from 3.9 % to 9.4 % across ultra-short-term and short-term timescales. This enhanced WPF performance is directly attributed to the model's ability to first improve WS accuracy, with gains of 8.8 %, 7.6 %, 8.3 %, and 8.8 % for the respective farms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100650"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100652
Taos Transue, Marios Theristis, Daniel M. Riley
More than 81% of the annual capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the U.S. use single-axis trackers (SATs) due to SATs delivering 4% in capacity factor on average over fixed-array systems. However, SATs are subject to faults, such as software misconfigurations and mechanical failures, resulting in suboptimal tracking. If left undetected, the overall power yield of the PV power plant is reduced significantly. Minimizing downtime and ensuring efficient operation of SATs requires robust detection and diagnosis mechanisms for SAT faults. We present a machine learning framework for implementing real-time SAT fault detection and classification. Our implementation of the proposed framework reliably identifies measurements taken from a test PV system undergoing emulated SAT faults relative to state-of-the-art algorithms and produces nearly zero false positives on our testing days. Code and data are available at https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/tools.
{"title":"Machine learning for photovoltaic single axis tracker fault detection and classification","authors":"Taos Transue, Marios Theristis, Daniel M. Riley","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100652","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100652","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>More than 81% of the annual capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the U.S. use single-axis trackers (SATs) due to SATs delivering 4% in capacity factor on average over fixed-array systems. However, SATs are subject to faults, such as software misconfigurations and mechanical failures, resulting in suboptimal tracking. If left undetected, the overall power yield of the PV power plant is reduced significantly. Minimizing downtime and ensuring efficient operation of SATs requires robust detection and diagnosis mechanisms for SAT faults. We present a machine learning framework for implementing real-time SAT fault detection and classification. Our implementation of the proposed framework reliably identifies measurements taken from a test PV system undergoing emulated SAT faults relative to state-of-the-art algorithms and produces nearly zero false positives on our testing days. Code and data are available at <span><span>https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/tools</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100652"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100661
Mo'ath El-Dalahmeh, Om Siddhapura, Geanina Apachitei, Matthew Capener, James Marco, Adam Todd, Keri Goodwin, Mona Faraji Niri
Reliable prediction of slurry viscosity is essential for consistent electrode coating in lithium-ion battery manufacturing. This study investigates transfer learning to address deployment-phase uncertainty arising from batch-to-batch variability under pilot-scale conditions. Experimental data from two batches are used to model viscosity at 1, 10, and 100 1/s using four inputs: formulation, dispersant type, solid content percent, and solid dispersant percent. Linear baselines (ordinary least squares and ridge) are evaluated alongside tree ensembles and neural architectures, under identical splits and preprocessing. Results show consistent performance gains from transfer learning across all shear rates, with higher R2 and lower MAE and RMSE relative to no-transfer training. Across models, differences in backbone choice are secondary; the transfer step is the principal driver of improvement under the present data regime. Uncertainty is quantified using split-conformal prediction intervals, yielding nominal 90 percent coverage with narrower intervals after transfer learning. Small-data design choices are reported, including balanced splits and sensitivity checks with conservative augmentation used only for analysis. The findings indicate a practical and data-efficient route to viscosity prediction under sequential batches, supporting more robust model deployment in pilot-scale manufacturing.
{"title":"Predictive modelling of slurry viscosity using transfer learning to mitigate uncertainties in pilot-scale lithium-ion battery manufacturing process","authors":"Mo'ath El-Dalahmeh, Om Siddhapura, Geanina Apachitei, Matthew Capener, James Marco, Adam Todd, Keri Goodwin, Mona Faraji Niri","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable prediction of slurry viscosity is essential for consistent electrode coating in lithium-ion battery manufacturing. This study investigates transfer learning to address deployment-phase uncertainty arising from batch-to-batch variability under pilot-scale conditions. Experimental data from two batches are used to model viscosity at 1, 10, and 100 1/s using four inputs: formulation, dispersant type, solid content percent, and solid dispersant percent. Linear baselines (ordinary least squares and ridge) are evaluated alongside tree ensembles and neural architectures, under identical splits and preprocessing. Results show consistent performance gains from transfer learning across all shear rates, with higher R2 and lower MAE and RMSE relative to no-transfer training. Across models, differences in backbone choice are secondary; the transfer step is the principal driver of improvement under the present data regime. Uncertainty is quantified using split-conformal prediction intervals, yielding nominal 90 percent coverage with narrower intervals after transfer learning. Small-data design choices are reported, including balanced splits and sensitivity checks with conservative augmentation used only for analysis. The findings indicate a practical and data-efficient route to viscosity prediction under sequential batches, supporting more robust model deployment in pilot-scale manufacturing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100661"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100654
Keqi Chen , Tianshuai Pei , Lina Yang , Thomas Wu , Yunxuan Dong
Short-term offshore wind power forecasting is crucial for stable power system operations. However, accurate forecasting is hindered by multivariate interactions that generate multi-scale repetitive patterns and obscure cross-variate correlations. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical framework, the Time–Frequency Clustering Inverted Transformer, for multivariate offshore wind power forecasting. First, a Time–Frequency Clustering component applies Wavelet Packet Decomposition to each series and quantifies sub-series similarity by overall activity and evolutionary trend, grouping repetitive patterns into structured clusters. Second, an inverted Transformer captures multivariate correlations within clusters by treating time points of individual sub-series as variate tokens, enabling self-attention to focus on multivariate correlations rather than temporal dependencies. On two real-world offshore wind datasets (horizons 8–48 h), our proposed framework reduces MSE/MAE by 14.11% and outperforms 12 recognised baselines (e.g., PatchTST, TimesNet), with the advantage persisting even when the TFC component is applied to the baselines. Moreover, our method demonstrates remarkable generalisability on three public datasets (Solar-Energy, Traffic, and ECL), reducing MSE/MAE by 7.36%. These results indicate that associating repetitive patterns with attention to cross-variate structure materially improves multivariate offshore wind power forecasting.
{"title":"A novel method for multivariate short-term offshore wind forecasting via time–frequency clustering and inverted attention","authors":"Keqi Chen , Tianshuai Pei , Lina Yang , Thomas Wu , Yunxuan Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Short-term offshore wind power forecasting is crucial for stable power system operations. However, accurate forecasting is hindered by multivariate interactions that generate multi-scale repetitive patterns and obscure cross-variate correlations. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical framework, the Time–Frequency Clustering Inverted Transformer, for multivariate offshore wind power forecasting. First, a Time–Frequency Clustering component applies Wavelet Packet Decomposition to each series and quantifies sub-series similarity by overall activity and evolutionary trend, grouping repetitive patterns into structured clusters. Second, an inverted Transformer captures multivariate correlations within clusters by treating time points of individual sub-series as variate tokens, enabling self-attention to focus on multivariate correlations rather than temporal dependencies. On two real-world offshore wind datasets (horizons 8–48 h), our proposed framework reduces MSE/MAE by 14.11% and outperforms 12 recognised baselines (e.g., PatchTST, TimesNet), with the advantage persisting even when the TFC component is applied to the baselines. Moreover, our method demonstrates remarkable generalisability on three public datasets (Solar-Energy, Traffic, and ECL), reducing MSE/MAE by 7.36%. These results indicate that associating repetitive patterns with attention to cross-variate structure materially improves multivariate offshore wind power forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100654"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100647
Amir Ali Panahi , Daniel Luder , Billy Wu , Gregory Offer , Dirk Uwe Sauer , Weihan Li
Digital twins of lithium-ion batteries are increasingly used to enable predictive monitoring, control, and design at system scale. Increasing their capabilities involves improving their physical fidelity while maintaining sub-millisecond computational speed. In this work, we introduce machine learning surrogates that learn physical dynamics. Specifically, we benchmark three operator-learning surrogates for the Single Particle Model (SPM): Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets), Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) and a newly proposed parameter-embedded Fourier Neural Operator (PE-FNO), which conditions each spectral layer on particle radius and solid-phase diffusivity. We extend the comparison to classical machine-learning baselines by including U-Nets. Models are trained on simulated trajectories spanning four current families (constant, triangular, pulse-train, and Gaussian-random-field) and a full range of State-of-Charge (SOC) (0 % to 100 %). DeepONet accurately replicates constant-current behaviour but struggles with more dynamic loads. The basic FNO maintains mesh invariance and keeps concentration errors below 1 %, with voltage mean-absolute errors under 1.7 mV across all load types. Introducing parameter embedding marginally increases error but enables generalisation to varying radii and diffusivities. PE-FNO executes approximately 200 times faster than a 16-thread SPM solver. Consequently, PE-FNO’s capabilities in inverse tasks are explored in a parameter estimation task with Bayesian optimisation, recovering anode and cathode diffusivities with 1.14 % and 8.4 % mean absolute percentage error, respectively, and 0.5918 percentage points higher error in comparison with classical methods. These results pave the way for neural operators to meet the accuracy, speed and parametric flexibility demands of real-time battery management, design-of-experiments and large-scale inference. PE-FNO outperforms conventional neural surrogates, offering a practical path towards high-speed and high-fidelity electrochemical digital twins.
{"title":"Fast and generalisable parameter-embedded neural operators for lithium-ion battery simulation","authors":"Amir Ali Panahi , Daniel Luder , Billy Wu , Gregory Offer , Dirk Uwe Sauer , Weihan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital twins of lithium-ion batteries are increasingly used to enable predictive monitoring, control, and design at system scale. Increasing their capabilities involves improving their physical fidelity while maintaining sub-millisecond computational speed. In this work, we introduce machine learning surrogates that learn physical dynamics. Specifically, we benchmark three operator-learning surrogates for the Single Particle Model (SPM): Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets), Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) and a newly proposed parameter-embedded Fourier Neural Operator (PE-FNO), which conditions each spectral layer on particle radius and solid-phase diffusivity. We extend the comparison to classical machine-learning baselines by including U-Nets. Models are trained on simulated trajectories spanning four current families (constant, triangular, pulse-train, and Gaussian-random-field) and a full range of State-of-Charge (SOC) (0<!--> <!-->% to 100<!--> <!-->%). DeepONet accurately replicates constant-current behaviour but struggles with more dynamic loads. The basic FNO maintains mesh invariance and keeps concentration errors below 1<!--> <!-->%, with voltage mean-absolute errors under 1.7<!--> <!-->mV across all load types. Introducing parameter embedding marginally increases error but enables generalisation to varying radii and diffusivities. PE-FNO executes approximately 200 times faster than a 16-thread SPM solver. Consequently, PE-FNO’s capabilities in inverse tasks are explored in a parameter estimation task with Bayesian optimisation, recovering anode and cathode diffusivities with 1.14<!--> <!-->% and 8.4<!--> <!-->% mean absolute percentage error, respectively, and 0.5918 percentage points higher error in comparison with classical methods. These results pave the way for neural operators to meet the accuracy, speed and parametric flexibility demands of real-time battery management, design-of-experiments and large-scale inference. PE-FNO outperforms conventional neural surrogates, offering a practical path towards high-speed and high-fidelity electrochemical digital twins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100647"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100653
Manuel Sage , Khalil Al Handawi , Yaoyao Fiona Zhao
This study introduces a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework for the joint dispatch of Gas Turbines (GTs) and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESs) in microgrids that face the variability of renewable energy sources and demands. BESs can store surplus renewable energy for nearly instantaneous use, while GTs offer sustained energy output over longer periods, offering complementary benefits. Previous studies often oversimplified GT operations, neglecting critical factors such as ramp-up times and increased degradation from frequent starts. This research addresses these gaps by proposing an advanced modeling framework that accurately captures the dynamic interaction between GTs and BESs, including GT ramp-up times and maintenance costs associated with operational cycles. Through extensive case studies involving diverse microgrid configurations, we demonstrate that DRL effectively learns dispatch policies directly from historical data, outperforming traditional optimization techniques. Deploying DRL to our framework yields more realistic dispatch policies, reducing GT maintenance costs by avoiding frequent starts. The proposed framework has significant potential to improve energy management strategies and to streamline the planning of hybrid energy systems. To encourage further research, we have released our codebase to the public, enabling the scientific community to build upon our findings.
{"title":"Deep reinforcement learning for joint dispatch of battery storage and gas turbines in renewable-powered microgrids","authors":"Manuel Sage , Khalil Al Handawi , Yaoyao Fiona Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework for the joint dispatch of Gas Turbines (GTs) and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESs) in microgrids that face the variability of renewable energy sources and demands. BESs can store surplus renewable energy for nearly instantaneous use, while GTs offer sustained energy output over longer periods, offering complementary benefits. Previous studies often oversimplified GT operations, neglecting critical factors such as ramp-up times and increased degradation from frequent starts. This research addresses these gaps by proposing an advanced modeling framework that accurately captures the dynamic interaction between GTs and BESs, including GT ramp-up times and maintenance costs associated with operational cycles. Through extensive case studies involving diverse microgrid configurations, we demonstrate that DRL effectively learns dispatch policies directly from historical data, outperforming traditional optimization techniques. Deploying DRL to our framework yields more realistic dispatch policies, reducing GT maintenance costs by avoiding frequent starts. The proposed framework has significant potential to improve energy management strategies and to streamline the planning of hybrid energy systems. To encourage further research, we have released our codebase to the public, enabling the scientific community to build upon our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100653"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100636
Mostafa Mohammadpourfard , Yang Weng , Mahdi Eghbali , Manohar Chamana , Suhas Pol
The rapid proliferation of renewable energy sources (RESs) has enhanced operational flexibility but intensified cybersecurity concerns in modern power systems. In this work, we investigate how attackers can exploit the increased variability introduced by RESs to orchestrate false data injection attacks (FDIAs). First, we propose a targeted attack strategy based on Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test. This two-stage procedure identifies measurements that exhibit minimal distributional shifts after RES integration. False data are then injected into these stable measurements, blending seamlessly into the expanded measurement space and increasing attack stealth. Second, we develop a customized hybrid deep learning model, combining Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units to capture both spatial correlations and temporal dynamics in power system measurements. This design explicitly addresses concept drift arising from fluctuating load and generation profiles, ensuring persistent detection accuracy. Third, we integrate an Autoencoder (AE)–based reconstruction mechanism to repair compromised measurements upon detection, mitigating denial-of-service (DoS) scenarios that could result from discarding suspect data. Our evaluations on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems, using real-world load profiles, confirm that the JSD–KS approach boosts attack stealth while the CNN–LSTM–AE pipeline achieves robust detection and recovery. Our experiments on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate F1-score gains of up to 3% over the strongest CLSTM baseline under traditional FDIA scenarios, and up to 13% under our intelligent FDIA, while also reducing AE reconstruction RMSE by approximately 6%–7%. This integrated strategy offers a multi-layered defense against evolving cyber threats in renewable-rich smart grids.
{"title":"An intelligent multi-layer framework for attack conduction, detection and reconstruction in the smart grid with renewable energies","authors":"Mostafa Mohammadpourfard , Yang Weng , Mahdi Eghbali , Manohar Chamana , Suhas Pol","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid proliferation of renewable energy sources (RESs) has enhanced operational flexibility but intensified cybersecurity concerns in modern power systems. In this work, we investigate how attackers can exploit the increased variability introduced by RESs to orchestrate false data injection attacks (FDIAs). First, we propose a targeted attack strategy based on Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test. This two-stage procedure identifies measurements that exhibit minimal distributional shifts after RES integration. False data are then injected into these stable measurements, blending seamlessly into the expanded measurement space and increasing attack stealth. Second, we develop a customized hybrid deep learning model, combining Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units to capture both spatial correlations and temporal dynamics in power system measurements. This design explicitly addresses concept drift arising from fluctuating load and generation profiles, ensuring persistent detection accuracy. Third, we integrate an Autoencoder (AE)–based reconstruction mechanism to repair compromised measurements upon detection, mitigating denial-of-service (DoS) scenarios that could result from discarding suspect data. Our evaluations on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems, using real-world load profiles, confirm that the JSD–KS approach boosts attack stealth while the CNN–LSTM–AE pipeline achieves robust detection and recovery. Our experiments on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate F1-score gains of up to 3% over the strongest CLSTM baseline under traditional FDIA scenarios, and up to 13% under our intelligent FDIA, while also reducing AE reconstruction RMSE by approximately 6%–7%. This integrated strategy offers a multi-layered defense against evolving cyber threats in renewable-rich smart grids.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100636"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145739285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100645
Chufan Wu , Luoxiao Yang , Zijun Zhang
A central question in efficient wind farm big-data analytics is how to design an algorithm for autonomously extracting performance curves of wind turbines based on data collected via wind farm supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. This paper investigates this question systematically, focusing on a challenging setting: the end-to-end autonomous analytics for directly generating mathematical functions of wind turbine performance curves from raw SCADA data. We propose a vision generative modeling (VGM) paradigm for autonomous development of wind turbine performance curve models. We discover that, compared with prevalently discussed numerical fitting-based performance curve modeling (NFM) methods, VGM directly working on raw data without any data preprocessing and model parameter tuning offers more generalizable and accurate results in deriving performance curves as well as their mathematical forms. The success of VGM is achieved by three computational steps developed in this study. By comparing with a set of state-of-the-art NFM benchmarks in multiple performance curve modeling tasks, we observe that VGM consistently performs more advantageously by achieving a 75.1% accuracy improvement in wind power curve modeling with insufficient SCADA data and an 84.3% improvement in modeling the rotor speed curve based on faulty field data. This work presents a milestone in autonomous wind turbine SCADA data analytics, which possesses a great potential of spanning to autonomous analytics of measured data of other industrial systems.
{"title":"Autonomous wind turbine performance curve modeling based on SCADA data: A vision intelligence powered method","authors":"Chufan Wu , Luoxiao Yang , Zijun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A central question in efficient wind farm big-data analytics is how to design an algorithm for autonomously extracting performance curves of wind turbines based on data collected via wind farm supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. This paper investigates this question systematically, focusing on a challenging setting: the end-to-end autonomous analytics for directly generating mathematical functions of wind turbine performance curves from raw SCADA data. We propose a vision generative modeling (VGM) paradigm for autonomous development of wind turbine performance curve models. We discover that, compared with prevalently discussed numerical fitting-based performance curve modeling (NFM) methods, VGM directly working on raw data without any data preprocessing and model parameter tuning offers more generalizable and accurate results in deriving performance curves as well as their mathematical forms. The success of VGM is achieved by three computational steps developed in this study. By comparing with a set of state-of-the-art NFM benchmarks in multiple performance curve modeling tasks, we observe that VGM consistently performs more advantageously by achieving a 75.1% accuracy improvement in wind power curve modeling with insufficient SCADA data and an 84.3% improvement in modeling the rotor speed curve based on faulty field data. This work presents a milestone in autonomous wind turbine SCADA data analytics, which possesses a great potential of spanning to autonomous analytics of measured data of other industrial systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100645"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100640
Andrew Glaws , Jackson W. Schall , Andrew Ballen , Amy E. Louks , Kristopher O. Davis , Axel F. Palmstrom , Juliette Ugirumurera , Dana B. Kern
As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current–voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.
{"title":"Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics","authors":"Andrew Glaws , Jackson W. Schall , Andrew Ballen , Amy E. Louks , Kristopher O. Davis , Axel F. Palmstrom , Juliette Ugirumurera , Dana B. Kern","doi":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current–voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34138,"journal":{"name":"Energy and AI","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100640"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}