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Adaptive control systems for dual axis tracker using clear sky index and output power forecasting based on ML in overcast weather conditions 在阴霾天气条件下,利用晴空指数和基于 ML 的输出功率预测,为双轴跟踪器提供自适应控制系统
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100432
Nursultan Koshkarbay , Saad Mekhilef , Ahmet Saymbetov , Nurzhigit Kuttybay , Madiyar Nurgaliyev , Gulbakhar Dosymbetova , Sayat Orynbassar , Evan Yershov , Ainur Kapparova , Batyrbek Zholamanov , Askhat Bolatbek
The use of artificial intelligence in renewable energy systems increases energy generation and improves energy system management. The control system of many solar trackers is designed for maximum radiation power conditions and shows decent performance indicators, but during rapidly changing weather conditions or cloudy days, the performance of the solar trackers is reduced due to moving parts and low irradiance. Some studies show that the horizontal configuration produces more energy with scattered solar radiation than solar tracking systems. This work shows the possibility of using solar tracking systems under different weather conditions and cloudy days. To achieve the goals, a new adaptive control system for dual-axis solar trackers with astronomical tracking was developed, which differs from traditional controls in the use of horizontal configurations under certain weather conditions. The assessment of spatio-temporal weather conditions was carried out using the Clear Sky Index (CSI) and was complemented by forecasting the panel's power output. The study found that at 0.4 CSI values, the horizontal configuration exhibits higher power output than solar tracking systems, providing the potential to use the threshold for adaptive control. The developed system is more efficient by 18.3 %, 14.9 %, and 10.01 % than the horizontal configuration, single-axis, and dual-axis solar trackers.
人工智能在可再生能源系统中的应用提高了能源发电量,改善了能源系统管理。许多太阳能跟踪器的控制系统都是针对最大辐射功率条件设计的,性能指标还算不错,但在天气条件急剧变化或阴天时,由于运动部件和低辐照度,太阳能跟踪器的性能就会下降。一些研究表明,与太阳能跟踪系统相比,水平配置的散射太阳辐射能产生更多能量。这项工作展示了在不同天气条件和阴天下使用太阳能跟踪系统的可能性。为了实现这些目标,我们为具有天文跟踪功能的双轴太阳能跟踪器开发了一种新的自适应控制系统,该系统在特定天气条件下使用水平配置方面不同于传统的控制系统。利用晴空指数(CSI)对时空天气条件进行了评估,并对太阳能电池板的功率输出进行了预测。研究发现,在 CSI 值为 0.4 时,水平配置显示出比太阳能跟踪系统更高的功率输出,为利用阈值进行自适应控制提供了可能性。与水平配置、单轴和双轴太阳能跟踪器相比,所开发系统的效率分别提高了 18.3%、14.9% 和 10.01%。
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引用次数: 0
Supporting energy policy research with large language models: A case study in wind energy siting ordinances 用大型语言模型支持能源政策研究:风能选址条例案例研究
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100431
Grant Buster, Pavlo Pinchuk, Jacob Barrons, Ryan McKeever, Aaron Levine, Anthony Lopez
The recent growth in renewable energy development in the United States has been accompanied by a simultaneous surge in renewable energy siting ordinances. These zoning laws play a critical role in dictating the placement of wind and solar resources that are critical for achieving low-carbon energy futures. In this context, efficient access to and management of siting ordinance data becomes imperative. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently introduced a public wind and solar siting database to fill this need. This paper presents a method for harnessing Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the extraction of these siting ordinances from legal documents, enabling this database to maintain accurate up-to-date information in the rapidly changing energy policy landscape. A novel contribution of this research is the integration of a decision tree framework with LLMs. Our results show that this approach is 85 to 90 % accurate with outputs that can be used directly in downstream quantitative modeling. We discuss opportunities to use this work to support similar large-scale policy research in the energy sector. By unlocking new efficiencies in the extraction and analysis of legal documents using LLMs, this study enables a path forward for automated large-scale energy policy research.
最近,美国可再生能源开发的增长伴随着可再生能源选址条例的同时激增。这些分区法在决定风能和太阳能资源的位置方面发挥着至关重要的作用,而风能和太阳能资源对于实现低碳能源的未来至关重要。在这种情况下,有效地获取和管理选址条例数据变得势在必行。美国国家可再生能源实验室(NREL)最近推出了一个公共风能和太阳能选址数据库,以满足这一需求。本文介绍了一种利用大型语言模型 (LLM) 从法律文件中自动提取这些选址条例的方法,从而使该数据库能够在瞬息万变的能源政策环境中保持准确的最新信息。这项研究的一个新贡献是将决策树框架与 LLMs 相结合。我们的研究结果表明,这种方法的准确率在 85% 到 90% 之间,其输出结果可直接用于下游定量建模。我们讨论了利用这项工作支持能源领域类似大规模政策研究的机会。通过利用 LLMs 提高法律文件提取和分析的效率,本研究为自动化大规模能源政策研究开辟了一条前进之路。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of modeling and temperature control of air-cooled PEMFC based on TLBO-DE 基于 TLBO-DE 的风冷 PEMFC 建模和温度控制优化
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100430
Pu He , Jun-Hong Chen , Chen-Zi Zhang , Zi-Yan Yu , Ming-Yang Wang , Jun-Yu Chen , Jia-Le Song , Yu-Tong Mu , Kun-Ying Gong , Wen-Quan Tao
The temperature control of the air-cooled proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is important for effective and safe operation. To develop a practical and precise controller, this study combines the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network with Back Propagation neural network adaptive Proportion Integration Differentiation (BP-PID), and then a metaheuristic algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of RBF-BP-PID for further improvement in temperature control. First, an air-cooled PEMFC system model is established. To match the simulation data with the experimental data, Teaching Learning Based Optimization–Differential Evolution (TLBO-DE) is proposed to identify the unknown parameters, and the maximum relative error is <3.5 %. Second, RBF neural network is introduced to identify the stack temperature and provide the accurate y(k)u(k) for BP-PID, which solves the problem of using sign function sgn(y(k)u(k)) to approximate the y(k)u(k) in BP-PID. Regarding the temperature control of air-cooled PEMFC, several controllers are compared, including PID, Fuzzy-PID, BP-PID and RBF-BP-PID. The proposed RBF-BP-PID achieves the best control effect, which reduces the integrated time and absolute error (ITAE) by 3.4 % and 15.8 % based on BP-PID in the startup and steady phases, respectively. Since the y(k)u(k) provided by RBF changes softly and continuously during the control process, the parameters self-tuning ability of RBF-BP-PID is better than BP-PID. Third, to improve the control effect of RBF-BP-PID further, TLBO-DE is adopted to optimize the parameters of RBF neural network and BP neural network.
空气冷却质子交换膜燃料电池(PEMFC)的温度控制对于有效和安全运行非常重要。为了开发实用且精确的控制器,本研究将径向基函数(RBF)神经网络与反向传播神经网络自适应比例积分微分(BP-PID)相结合,然后使用元启发式算法优化 RBF-BP-PID 的参数,以进一步改善温度控制。首先,建立了风冷 PEMFC 系统模型。为使仿真数据与实验数据相匹配,提出了基于教学的优化-差分进化算法(TLBO-DE)来识别未知参数,其最大相对误差为 <3.5%。其次,引入 RBF 神经网络识别烟囱温度,为 BP-PID 提供精确的∂y(k)∂u(k),解决了 BP-PID 中使用符号函数 sgn(∂y(k)∂u(k)) 近似∂y(k)∂u(k)的问题。关于风冷 PEMFC 的温度控制,比较了几种控制器,包括 PID、Fuzzy-PID、BP-PID 和 RBF-BP-PID。所提出的 RBF-BP-PID 控制效果最好,在启动和稳定阶段,它比 BP-PID 分别减少了 3.4 % 和 15.8 % 的综合时间和绝对误差(ITAE)。由于 RBF 提供的∂y(k)∂u(k)在控制过程中变化柔和且连续,因此 RBF-BP-PID 的参数自整定能力优于 BP-PID。第三,为进一步提高 RBF-BP-PID 的控制效果,采用 TLBO-DE 对 RBF 神经网络和 BP 神经网络的参数进行优化。
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引用次数: 0
Distributed decision making for unmanned aerial vehicle inspection with limited energy constraint 能源有限的无人飞行器巡检分布式决策
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100429
Qi Wang , Haomin Zhu , Gang Pan , Jianguo Wei , Chen Zhang , Zhu Huang , Guowei Ling
The unsatisfactory energy density of the state-of-art batteries imposes constraints on the practical application of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Establishing a UAV airport network that integrates energy supply and information exchange functionalities represents an ideal solution for enabling synergistic UAV operations. However, devising efficient distribution protocols for these airports remains a challenge. By leveraging modeling and analysis of the energy density of existing UAV batteries, we can forecast the flight range and distances achievable by UAVs. Here, we propose a distribution protocol for UAV airport platforms aimed at enhancing distribution accuracy by the use of AI principles. Furthermore, considering the possibility of emergency UAV stop, we introduce an emergency stop system in conjunction with standard stopping procedures to optimize distribution efficiency and enhance UAV inspection safety. Moreover, existing UAV airports usually provide energy to UAVs without harnessing UAVs to facilitate interconnection and interoperability among different airports. This inefficiency leads to significant resource wastage in energy distribution. To address this, we introduce a shared energy network that allows different companies to operate according to energy distribution needs. This network not only supplies energy to UAVs but also employs UAVs for energy collection and transportation, facilitating energy trading, business collaboration, and data transmission among diverse organizations. By enabling ubiquitous energy trading, this study provides us an ideal strategy for the future construction of energy network with interconnection and interoperability, which can be extended to other applications calling for energy distribution.
最先进电池的能量密度不尽人意,制约了无人驾驶飞行器(UAV)的实际应用。建立集能源供应和信息交换功能于一体的无人机机场网络是实现无人机协同运行的理想解决方案。然而,为这些机场设计高效的分配协议仍然是一项挑战。通过对现有无人机电池能量密度的建模和分析,我们可以预测无人机的飞行范围和可达到的距离。在此,我们提出了一种无人机机场平台分配协议,旨在利用人工智能原理提高分配精度。此外,考虑到无人机紧急停机的可能性,我们结合标准停机程序引入了紧急停机系统,以优化分配效率并提高无人机巡查安全性。此外,现有的无人机机场通常为无人机提供能源,而没有利用无人机促进不同机场之间的互联互通。这种低效率导致能源分配中的大量资源浪费。为解决这一问题,我们引入了一个共享能源网络,允许不同公司根据能源分配需求进行运营。该网络不仅为无人机提供能源,还利用无人机收集和运输能源,促进不同组织之间的能源交易、业务协作和数据传输。通过实现无处不在的能源交易,这项研究为我们提供了一种理想的策略,有助于未来构建具有互联互通功能的能源网络,并可将其扩展到其他需要能源分配的应用领域。
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引用次数: 0
VA-Creator—A Virtual Appliance Creator based on adaptive Neural Networks to generate synthetic power consumption patterns VA-Creator - 基于自适应神经网络生成合成功耗模式的虚拟设备创建器
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100427
Michael Meiser , Benjamin Duppe , Ingo Zinnikus , Alexander Anisimov

With the advent of the Smart Home domain and the increasingly widespread application of Machine Learning (ML), obtaining power consumption data is becoming more and more important. Collecting real-world energy data using sensors is time consuming, expensive, error-prone and in some situations not possible. Therefore, we present the VA-Creator, a framework to create Virtual Appliances (VAs). These VAs synthesize power consumption patterns (PCPs) based on Neural Networks (NNs) which adapt their architecture to the training data structure to simplify the creation of new VAs. To be able to generate all appliance types available in a typical household we use various kinds of NN, including Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs), Long Short-Term Memorys (LSTMs) and a specific Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) as well as different ML techniques such as XGBoost, selecting the appropriate technique depending on each appliance’s characteristics. We then compare the results of the ML models against real data and evaluate them by using Dynamic time Warping (DTW) as well as the classification performance of an MLP discriminator as metrics. Additionally, to ensure that the VAs allow to meaningfully train ML models, we use them to generate synthetic data and then train Non intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) models in an extensive evaluation. The presented evaluation provides evidence that the VA models produce realistic and meaningful results.

随着智能家居领域的出现和机器学习(ML)应用的日益广泛,获取能耗数据变得越来越重要。使用传感器收集真实世界的能耗数据耗时长、成本高、容易出错,而且在某些情况下根本无法实现。因此,我们提出了虚拟设备创建器,这是一个创建虚拟设备(VA)的框架。这些虚拟电器基于神经网络(NN)合成功耗模式(PCP),而神经网络的架构则根据训练数据结构进行调整,从而简化了新虚拟电器的创建过程。为了能够生成典型家庭中的所有电器类型,我们使用了各种类型的 NN,包括多层感知器 (MLP)、长短期记忆 (LSTM) 和特定的生成对抗网络 (GAN),以及不同的 ML 技术(如 XGBoost),并根据每种电器的特性选择合适的技术。然后,我们将 ML 模型的结果与真实数据进行比较,并使用动态时间扭曲(DTW)以及 MLP 识别器的分类性能作为指标对其进行评估。此外,为了确保虚拟机构能够有意义地训练 ML 模型,我们使用虚拟机构生成合成数据,然后在广泛的评估中训练非侵入式负载监控(NILM)模型。所提交的评估证明,VA 模型能产生真实而有意义的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Deep learning from three-dimensional lithium-ion battery multiphysics model part I: Data development 三维锂离子电池多物理场模型的深度学习 I 部分:数据开发
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100428
Yiheng Pang , Yun Wang , Zhiqiang Niu
Fast growing demands for electric vehicles require better longevity, safety and reliability for next-generation high-energy battery technologies. A data-centered battery management system is thus desired to interpret complex battery data and make decisions for properly managing multi-physics battery dynamics. Nowadays, Battery informatics are emerging as promising solutions by leveraging advanced machine learning tools to deliver accurate prediction of battery performance, health and safety, but is hurdled by a scarcity of data. To mitigate this issue, this study presents one of the first studies for data development through both experimental studies and three-dimensional (3-D) multi-physics modeling to underpin a deep learning framework with in-depth examination for battery performance and thermal risk prediction. Specifically, Part I focused on the development of the battery model which was thoroughly validated and analyzed to guarantee the model accuracy by two steps: firstly, we validated the multi-physics model against two commercial Lithium-ion batteries, i.e., Panasonic NCR18650B and 18650BD; Then, the coupling between thermal and electrochemical battery behaviors were analyzed deeply to demonstrate insights obtained from the model, such as voltage evolution and maximum local temperature (hot spot). The developed model proves to be capable of providing insightful and reliable data for the training of convolutional neural network and long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) in part II.
电动汽车需求的快速增长要求下一代高能电池技术具有更长的使用寿命、更高的安全性和可靠性。因此,我们需要一个以数据为中心的电池管理系统来解读复杂的电池数据,并为正确管理多物理场电池动态做出决策。如今,电池信息学正成为一种前景广阔的解决方案,它利用先进的机器学习工具对电池性能、健康和安全进行准确预测,但却因数据匮乏而难以实现。为缓解这一问题,本研究通过实验研究和三维(3-D)多物理场建模,首次提出了数据开发研究,为深度学习框架提供了基础,并对电池性能和热风险预测进行了深入研究。具体来说,第一部分侧重于电池模型的开发,并通过两个步骤对模型进行了全面验证和分析,以确保模型的准确性:首先,我们以松下 NCR18650B 和 18650BD 这两种商用锂离子电池验证了多物理场模型;然后,深入分析了电池热行为和电化学行为之间的耦合,以展示从模型中获得的见解,如电压演变和最高局部温度(热点)。事实证明,所开发的模型能够为第二部分的卷积神经网络和长短期记忆(CNN-LSTM)训练提供具有洞察力的可靠数据。
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引用次数: 0
Application of artificial intelligence in the materials science, with a special focus on fuel cells and electrolyzers 人工智能在材料科学中的应用,特别关注燃料电池和电解槽
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100424
Mariah Batool , Oluwafemi Sanumi , Jasna Jankovic

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized technological development globally, delivering relatively more accurate and reliable solutions to critical challenges across various research domains. This impact is particularly notable within the field of materials science and engineering, where artificial intelligence has catalyzed the discovery of new materials, enhanced design simulations, influenced process controls, and facilitated operational analysis and predictions of material properties and behaviors. Consequently, these advancements have streamlined the synthesis, simulation, and processing procedures, leading to material optimization for diverse applications. A key area of interest within materials science is the development of hydrogen-based electrochemical systems, such as fuel cells and electrolyzers, as clean energy solutions, known for their promising high energy density and zero-emission operations. While artificial intelligence shows great potential in studying both fuel cells and electrolyzers, existing literature often separates them, with a clear gap in comprehensive studies on electrolyzers despite their similarities. This review aims to bridge that gap by providing an integrated overview of artificial intelligence's role in both technologies. This review begins by explaining the fundamental concepts of artificial intelligence and introducing commonly used artificial intelligence-based algorithms in a simplified and clearly comprehensible way, establishing a foundational knowledge base for further discussion. Subsequently, it explores the role of artificial intelligence in materials science, highlighting the critical applications and drawing on examples from recent literature to build on the discussion. The paper then examines how artificial intelligence has propelled significant advancements in studying various types of fuel cells and electrolyzers, specifically emphasizing proton exchange membrane (PEM) based systems. It thoroughly explores the artificial intelligence tools and techniques for characterizing, manufacturing, testing, analyzing, and optimizing these systems. Additionally, the review critically evaluates the current research landscape, pinpointing progress and prevailing challenges. Through this thorough analysis, the review underscores the fundamental role of artificial intelligence in advancing the generation and utilization of clean energy, illustrating its transformative potential in this area of research.

人工智能(AI)给全球的技术发展带来了革命性的变化,为各个研究领域的关键挑战提供了相对更准确、更可靠的解决方案。这种影响在材料科学与工程领域尤为显著,人工智能催化了新材料的发现,增强了设计模拟,影响了工艺控制,促进了材料特性和行为的操作分析与预测。因此,这些进步简化了合成、模拟和加工程序,为各种应用优化了材料。材料科学的一个重要兴趣领域是开发氢基电化学系统,如燃料电池和电解槽,作为清洁能源解决方案。虽然人工智能在研究燃料电池和电解槽方面都显示出巨大的潜力,但现有文献往往将两者割裂开来,尽管两者有相似之处,但对电解槽的全面研究明显不足。本综述旨在通过综合概述人工智能在这两种技术中的作用来弥补这一差距。本综述首先解释了人工智能的基本概念,并以简化和清晰易懂的方式介绍了常用的基于人工智能的算法,为进一步讨论奠定了基础知识。随后,本文探讨了人工智能在材料科学中的作用,重点介绍了人工智能的关键应用,并引用了近期文献中的实例,以进一步展开讨论。然后,论文探讨了人工智能如何推动各类燃料电池和电解槽研究取得重大进展,特别强调了基于质子交换膜(PEM)的系统。论文深入探讨了用于表征、制造、测试、分析和优化这些系统的人工智能工具和技术。此外,综述还对当前的研究状况进行了批判性评估,指出了取得的进展和面临的挑战。通过这一透彻的分析,综述强调了人工智能在推动清洁能源的生产和利用方面的基础性作用,并说明了人工智能在这一研究领域的变革潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Constraint-incorporated deep learning model for predicting heat transfer in porous media under diverse external heat fluxes 用于预测不同外部热通量条件下多孔介质传热的约束-纳入式深度学习模型
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100425
Ziling Guo, Hui Wang, Huangyi Zhu, Zhiguo Qu

The temperature field within porous media is considerably affected by different boundary conditions, and effective thermal conductivity varies with spatial structure morphologies. At present, traditional prediction methods for the temperature field are expensive and time consuming, particularly for large structures and dimensions, whereas deep learning surrogate models have limitations related to constant boundary conditions and two-dimensional input slices, lacking the three-dimensional topology and spatial correlations. Herein, a constraint-incorporated model using U-Net architecture as the backbone is proposed to predict the temperature field and effective thermal conductivity of sphere-packed porous media, considering diverse external heat fluxes. A total of 510 original samples of temperature fields are generated through lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) simulations, which are further augmented to 33,150 samples using the self-amplification method for the training. Physical prior knowledge is incorporated into the model to constrain the training direction by adding physical constraint terms as well as adaptive weights to the loss function. Input vectors with different heat fluxes and porosities are embedded into latent features for predicting different boundary conditions. Results indicate that the constraint-incorporated model has a mean relative error ranging between 1.1 % and 5.7 % compared with the LBM results in the testing set. It exhibits weak dependence on the database size and substantially reduces computational time, with a maximum speedup ratio of 7.14 × 106. This study presents a deep learning model with physical constraints for predicting heat conduction in porous media, alleviating the burden of extensive experiments and simulations.

多孔介质内部的温度场受不同边界条件的影响很大,有效热导率随空间结构形态的变化而变化。目前,传统的温度场预测方法成本高、耗时长,尤其是对于大型结构和尺寸,而深度学习代用模型存在与恒定边界条件和二维输入切片相关的局限性,缺乏三维拓扑和空间相关性。本文提出了一种以 U-Net 架构为骨干的约束融入模型,用于预测球状堆积多孔介质的温度场和有效热导率,并考虑了不同的外部热通量。通过晶格玻尔兹曼法(LBM)模拟共生成了 510 个原始温度场样本,并使用自放大法进一步增加到 33,150 个样本进行训练。通过在损失函数中添加物理约束项和自适应权重,将物理先验知识纳入模型,以限制训练方向。不同热通量和孔隙率的输入向量被嵌入潜特征中,用于预测不同的边界条件。结果表明,与测试集中的 LBM 结果相比,包含约束条件的模型的平均相对误差在 1.1 % 到 5.7 % 之间。该模型对数据库规模的依赖性较弱,并大大减少了计算时间,最大加速比为 7.14 × 106。本研究提出了一种带有物理约束的深度学习模型,用于预测多孔介质中的热传导,减轻了大量实验和模拟的负担。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting CO2 equilibrium solubility in various amine-CO2 systems using an artificial neural network model 利用人工神经网络模型预测各种胺-CO2 系统中的二氧化碳平衡溶解度
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100426
Apri Wahyudi , Uthaiporn Suriyapraphadilok

Three proposed reaction mechanisms can occur in an amine-CO2 system: either zwitterionic or termolecular mechanisms for primary/secondary amines and base-catalyzed hydration for tertiary amines. The intricacy of this system hinders the construction of a general model for all types of amines. This study attempts to build an artificial neural network model that predicts the equilibrium solubility of any nonblended aqueous amine-CO2 system under given operating conditions, regardless of the reaction mechanism. This is a novel approach that has not yet been reported. The amines were characterized using molecular descriptors derived from COSMO theory through density functional theory calculations to incorporate molecular structures as model features. Our model achieved performance metrics (R2) of 0.9645 and 0.9481 for the training and validation sets, respectively. For unfamiliar amines that were absent in both the training and validation sets, our model achieved an R2 of 0.8601. Model benchmarking was performed using a previously established thermodynamic model. Interpretations of the model are also provided based on the chosen features. This study also offers exploratory insight into how the molecular structure and operating conditions affect the CO2 equilibrium solubility in amines. The model developed in this study has the potential to reduce the solvent screening time in determining appropriate amines for larger-scale applications.

在胺-CO2 系统中可能会出现三种拟议的反应机制:伯胺/叔胺的齐聚物机制或分子机制,叔胺的碱催化水合机制。该系统的复杂性阻碍了为所有类型的胺构建通用模型。本研究试图建立一个人工神经网络模型,以预测任何非混合水胺-CO2 系统在给定操作条件下的平衡溶解度,而不论反应机理如何。这是一种尚未报道过的新方法。通过密度泛函理论计算,使用从 COSMO 理论得出的分子描述符对胺进行了表征,并将分子结构作为模型特征。我们的模型在训练集和验证集上的性能指标(R2)分别为 0.9645 和 0.9481。对于训练集和验证集中都不存在的陌生胺,我们的模型达到了 0.8601 的 R2。我们使用以前建立的热力学模型对模型进行了基准测试。此外,还根据所选特征对模型进行了解释。本研究还对分子结构和操作条件如何影响二氧化碳在胺中的平衡溶解度提供了探索性的见解。本研究中开发的模型有可能缩短溶剂筛选时间,为更大规模的应用确定合适的胺。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic simulation of electricity price scenarios using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks 利用条件生成对抗网络对电价情景进行概率模拟
IF 9.6 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2024.100422
Viktor Walter , Andreas Wagner

A novel approach for generative time series simulation of electricity price scenarios is presented. A “Time Series Simulation Conditional Generative Adversarial Network” (TSS-CGAN) generates short-term electricity price scenarios. In particular, the network is capable of generating a 24-dimensional output vector that corresponds to the expected behavior of electricity markets. The model can replace typical approaches from financial mathematics like statistical factor models to model the price distribution around a given forecast. The data cover a 3-year period from 2020 to 2023. Our empirical study is conducted on the EPEX SPOT market in Europe. An electricity price scenario includes the prices of the hourly contracts of a day-ahead auction at the EPEX SPOT power exchange. The model uses multivariate time series as input factors, consisting of point forecasts of electricity prices and fundamental data on generation and load profiles. The architecture of a TSS-CGAN is based on the idea of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks combined with 1D Convolutional Neural Networks and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory. The model is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative criteria. For the evaluation, 10,000 simulations of a test period are carried out. Qualitative criteria are whether the model follows certain electricity market-specific regularities and depicts them adequately. The quantitative analysis includes common error metric, compared to benchmark models, like DeepAR, Prophet and Temporal Fusion Transformer, the examination of the quantile ranges, the error distribution and a sensitivity analysis. The results show that the TSS-CGAN outperforms benchmark models such as DeepAR by reducing the continuous ranked probability score by 50% and considers market-specific circumstances such as the production of fluctuating energies and reacts correctly to changes in the corresponding variables.

本文介绍了一种新颖的电价情景时间序列生成模拟方法。一种 "时间序列模拟条件生成对抗网络"(TSS-CGAN)可生成短期电价情景。特别是,该网络能够生成与电力市场预期行为相对应的 24 维输出向量。该模型可以替代金融数学中的典型方法,如统计因子模型,来模拟给定预测周围的价格分布。数据涵盖 2020 年至 2023 年的三年期。我们的实证研究是在欧洲 EPEX SPOT 市场上进行的。电价情景包括 EPEX SPOT 电力交易所日前拍卖的每小时合同价格。该模型使用多变量时间序列作为输入因素,其中包括电价点预测以及发电和负荷曲线的基本数据。TSS-CGAN 的结构基于条件生成对抗网络与一维卷积神经网络和双向长短期记忆相结合的思想。该模型采用定性和定量标准进行评估。在评估过程中,对一个测试期进行了 10,000 次模拟。定性标准是该模型是否遵循某些电力市场特有的规律性并对其进行充分描述。定量分析包括与 DeepAR、Prophet 和 Temporal Fusion Transformer 等基准模型相比的常见误差度量、量化范围检查、误差分布和敏感性分析。结果表明,TSS-CGAN 的性能优于 DeepAR 等基准模型,其连续排名概率得分降低了 50%,并考虑了市场的具体情况,如波动能源的生产,并能对相应变量的变化做出正确反应。
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Energy and AI
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