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From industry-wide parameters to aircraft-centric on-flight inference: Improving aeronautics performance prediction with machine learning 从全行业参数到以飞机为中心的飞行推理:利用机器学习改进航空性能预测
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-05-11 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2020.12
F. Dewez, Benjamin Guedj, V. Vandewalle
Abstract Aircraft performance models play a key role in airline operations, especially in planning a fuel-efficient flight. In practice, manufacturers provide guidelines which are slightly modified throughout the aircraft life cycle via the tuning of a single factor, enabling better fuel predictions. However, this has limitations, in particular, they do not reflect the evolution of each feature impacting the aircraft performance. Our goal here is to overcome this limitation. The key contribution of the present article is to foster the use of machine learning to leverage the massive amounts of data continuously recorded during flights performed by an aircraft and provide models reflecting its actual and individual performance. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the estimation of the drag and lift coefficients from recorded flight data. As these coefficients are not directly recorded, we resort to aerodynamics approximations. As a safety check, we provide bounds to assess the accuracy of both the aerodynamics approximation and the statistical performance of our approach. We provide numerical results on a collection of machine learning algorithms. We report excellent accuracy on real-life data and exhibit empirical evidence to support our modeling, in coherence with aerodynamics principles. Impact Statement Current airline operations in both flight preparation (on-ground) and flight management (in-air) are mainly based on the performance of an aircraft. For instance, a trajectory is set before the flight and managed in-air by the Flight Management System using the manufacturer’s performance model. This numerical model is calibrated during in-service period using monitoring systems developed by manufacturers. However, the calibration is based on the tuning of a single parameter, and this overly simplified modeling leads to a lack of precision in optimizing fuel consumption. In this paper, we propose performance models that take into account real flight conditions and switch from industry-wide to aircraft-centric calibration of relevant parameters. To do this, we use massive collections of in-air data recorded by the Quick Access Recorder, which reflect the actual behavior of the aircraft. We then resort to machine learning algorithms to learn sufficiently accurate models from this data to infer the actual performance of the aircraft. The present paper describes our overall approach and its application to predicting the lift and drag coefficients. Bounds for the prediction errors are provided to assess the accuracy of the models. We aim at a twofold impact: (a) improve on the inference of in-flight parameters to optimize trajectories (e.g., regarding fuel consumption) and (b) provide a principled data-centric modeling approach which could be replicated in other intensive data-generating industries.
摘要飞机性能模型在航空公司运营中发挥着关键作用,尤其是在规划节能飞行时。在实践中,制造商提供的指导方针在整个飞机生命周期中通过调整单个因素进行轻微修改,从而实现更好的燃料预测。然而,这有局限性,特别是,它们不能反映影响飞机性能的每个特征的演变。我们的目标是克服这一限制。本文的主要贡献是促进使用机器学习来利用飞机在飞行过程中连续记录的大量数据,并提供反映其实际和个人性能的模型。我们通过专注于从记录的飞行数据中估计阻力和升力系数来说明我们的方法。由于这些系数没有直接记录,我们采用空气动力学近似值。作为一种安全检查,我们提供了边界来评估空气动力学近似的准确性和我们方法的统计性能。我们提供了一组机器学习算法的数值结果。我们报告了真实数据的卓越准确性,并展示了经验证据来支持我们的建模,符合空气动力学原理。影响声明当前航空公司在飞行准备(地面)和飞行管理(空中)方面的运营主要基于飞机的性能。例如,在飞行前设置轨迹,并由飞行管理系统使用制造商的性能模型在空中进行管理。该数值模型在使用期间使用制造商开发的监测系统进行校准。然而,校准是基于单个参数的调整,这种过于简化的建模导致优化油耗缺乏精度。在本文中,我们提出了考虑真实飞行条件的性能模型,并将相关参数的校准从全行业转向以飞机为中心。为了做到这一点,我们使用快速访问记录器记录的大量空中数据,这些数据反映了飞机的实际行为。然后,我们求助于机器学习算法,从这些数据中学习足够准确的模型,以推断飞机的实际性能。本文介绍了我们的整体方法及其在预测升力系数和阻力系数方面的应用。提供预测误差的边界以评估模型的准确性。我们的目标是产生双重影响:(a)改进飞行参数的推断,以优化轨迹(例如,关于燃料消耗);(b)提供一种原则性的以数据为中心的建模方法,可以在其他密集型数据生成行业中复制。
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引用次数: 1
Data-driven surrogate modeling and benchmarking for process equipment 过程设备的数据驱动代理建模和基准测试
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-03-13 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2020.8
G. Gonçalves, A. Batchvarov, Yuyi Liu, Yuxin Liu, L. Mason, Indranil Pan, O. Matar
Abstract In chemical process engineering, surrogate models of complex systems are often necessary for tasks of domain exploration, sensitivity analysis of the design parameters, and optimization. A suite of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations geared toward chemical process equipment modeling has been developed and validated with experimental results from the literature. Various regression-based active learning strategies are explored with these CFD simulators in-the-loop under the constraints of a limited function evaluation budget. Specifically, five different sampling strategies and five regression techniques are compared, considering a set of four test cases of industrial significance and varying complexity. Gaussian process regression was observed to have a consistently good performance for these applications. The present quantitative study outlines the pros and cons of the different available techniques and highlights the best practices for their adoption. The test cases and tools are available with an open-source license to ensure reproducibility and engage the wider research community in contributing to both the CFD models and developing and benchmarking new improved algorithms tailored to this field. Impact Statement The recommendations provided here can be used for engineers interested in building computationally inexpensive surrogate models for fluid systems for design or optimization purposes. The test cases can be used by researchers to test and benchmark new algorithms for active learning for this class of problems. An open-source library with tools and scripts has been provided in order to support derived work.
摘要在化工过程工程中,复杂系统的代理模型常常用于领域探索、设计参数敏感性分析和优化等任务。一套面向化工过程设备建模的计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟已经开发出来,并通过文献中的实验结果进行了验证。在有限的功能评估预算约束下,利用CFD仿真器在环上探索了各种基于回归的主动学习策略。具体来说,考虑到一组具有不同工业意义和复杂性的四个测试用例,比较了五种不同的抽样策略和五种回归技术。观察到高斯过程回归在这些应用中具有一致的良好性能。目前的定量研究概述了不同可用技术的优点和缺点,并强调了采用这些技术的最佳实践。测试用例和工具可以通过开源许可获得,以确保可重复性,并吸引更广泛的研究社区为CFD模型做出贡献,并为该领域量身定制的新改进算法开发和基准测试。此处提供的建议可用于有兴趣为流体系统设计或优化建立计算成本低廉的替代模型的工程师。研究人员可以使用这些测试用例来测试和测试针对这类问题的主动学习的新算法。为了支持派生工作,提供了一个带有工具和脚本的开源库。
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引用次数: 6
Enhancing industrial X-ray tomography by data-centric statistical methods 用以数据为中心的统计方法增强工业X射线断层扫描
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-03-08 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2020.10
Jarkko Suuronen, M. Emzir, Sari Lasanen, S. Särkkä, L. Roininen
Abstract X-ray tomography has applications in various industrial fields such as sawmill industry, oil and gas industry, as well as chemical, biomedical, and geotechnical engineering. In this article, we study Bayesian methods for the X-ray tomography reconstruction. In Bayesian methods, the inverse problem of tomographic reconstruction is solved with the help of a statistical prior distribution which encodes the possible internal structures by assigning probabilities for smoothness and edge distribution of the object. We compare Gaussian random field priors, that favor smoothness, to non-Gaussian total variation (TV), Besov, and Cauchy priors which promote sharp edges and high- and low-contrast areas in the object. We also present computational schemes for solving the resulting high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem with 100,000–1,000,000 unknowns. We study the applicability of a no-U-turn variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods and of a more classical adaptive Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MwG) algorithm to enable full uncertainty quantification of the reconstructions. We use maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates with limited-memory BFGS (Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno) optimization algorithm. As the first industrial application, we consider sawmill industry X-ray log tomography. The logs have knots, rotten parts, and even possibly metallic pieces, making them good examples for non-Gaussian priors. Secondly, we study drill-core rock sample tomography, an example from oil and gas industry. In that case, we compare the priors without uncertainty quantification. We show that Cauchy priors produce smaller number of artefacts than other choices, especially with sparse high-noise measurements, and choosing HMC enables systematic uncertainty quantification, provided that the posterior is not pathologically multimodal or heavy-tailed. Impact Statement Industrial X-ray tomography reconstruction accuracy depends on various factors, like the equipment, measurement geometry, and constraints of the target. For example, dynamical systems are harder targets than static ones. The harder and noisier the setting becomes, the more emphasis goes on mathematical modeling of the targets. Bayesian statistical inversion is a common choice for difficult measurement settings, and its limitations mainly come from the choice of the a priori models. Gaussian models are widely studied, but they provide smooth reconstructions. Total variation priors are not invariant under mesh changes, so doing systematic uncertainty quantification, like data-centric sensor optimization, cannot be done with them. Besov and Cauchy priors however provide systematic non-Gaussian random field models, which can be used for contrast-boosting tomography. The drawback is higher computational cost. Hence, the techniques developed here are useful for non–time-critical applications with difficult measurement settings. In these cases, the methods developed may provide significantly better recons
摘要x射线层析成像技术应用于各种工业领域,如锯木厂、石油和天然气工业,以及化学、生物医学和岩土工程。本文研究了贝叶斯方法在x射线断层成像重建中的应用。在贝叶斯方法中,利用统计先验分布来解决层析重建的逆问题,该分布通过分配物体平滑度和边缘分布的概率来编码可能的内部结构。我们将高斯随机场先验(有利于平滑)与非高斯总变差(TV)、Besov和Cauchy先验(促进物体中的尖锐边缘和高对比度和低对比度区域)进行比较。我们还提出了求解100,000-1,000,000未知数的高维贝叶斯反问题的计算方案。我们研究了哈密顿蒙特卡罗(HMC)方法的无u -turn变体和更经典的自适应Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MwG)算法的适用性,以实现重建的完全不确定性量化。我们使用最大后验(MAP)估计有限内存BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno)优化算法。作为第一个工业应用,我们考虑了锯木厂的x射线测井层析成像。原木有结、腐烂的部分,甚至可能有金属碎片,这使它们成为非高斯先验的好例子。其次,以油气行业为例,对岩心层析成像进行了研究。在这种情况下,我们比较先验而不进行不确定性量化。我们表明,柯西先验比其他选择产生的伪象数量更少,特别是在稀疏的高噪声测量中,选择HMC可以实现系统的不确定性量化,前提是后验不是病态的多模态或重尾。工业x射线层析成像重建的精度取决于各种因素,如设备、测量几何形状和目标的约束。例如,动态系统是比静态系统更难对付的目标。设置的难度和噪声越大,目标的数学建模就越重要。贝叶斯统计反演是测量难度较大的一种常用方法,其局限性主要来自于对先验模型的选择。高斯模型得到了广泛的研究,但它们提供了平滑的重建。总变差先验在网格变化下不是不变的,因此无法进行系统的不确定性量化,如以数据为中心的传感器优化。然而,Besov和Cauchy先验提供了系统的非高斯随机场模型,可用于对比度增强层析成像。缺点是计算成本较高。因此,这里开发的技术对于具有困难测量设置的非时间关键应用非常有用。在这些情况下,所开发的方法可能比传统方法(如滤波反投影)提供更好的重建效果。
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引用次数: 7
MCMC for a hyperbolic Bayesian inverse problem in traffic flow modelling – ADDENDUM 交通流建模中双曲贝叶斯反问题的MCMC -附录
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-01-07 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2022.9
Jeremie Coullon, Y. Pokern
As work on hyperbolic Bayesian inverse problems remains rare in the literature, we explore empirically the sampling challenges these offer which have to do with shock formation in the solution of the PDE. Furthermore, we provide a unified statistical model to estimate using motorway data both boundary conditions and fundamental diagram parameters in LWR, a well known motorway traffic flow model. This allows us to provide a traffic flow density estimation method that is shown to be superior to two methods found in the traffic flow literature. Finally, we highlight how emph{Population Parallel Tempering} - a modification of Parallel Tempering - is a scalable method that can increase the mixing speed of the sampler by a factor of 10.
由于双曲贝叶斯反问题的研究在文献中仍然很少,我们从经验上探讨了这些问题所带来的采样挑战,这些挑战与PDE解决方案中的冲击形成有关。此外,我们提供了一个统一的统计模型,用于使用LWR中的高速公路数据、边界条件和基本图参数进行估计,LWR是一个众所周知的高速公路交通流模型。这使我们能够提供一种交通流密度估计方法,该方法被证明优于交通流文献中的两种方法。最后,我们强调了emph{Population Parallel Tempering}是一种可扩展的方法,可以将采样器的混合速度提高10倍。
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引用次数: 1
Poisson CNN: Convolutional neural networks for the solution of the Poisson equation on a Cartesian mesh Poisson-CNN:求解笛卡尔网格上Poisson方程的卷积神经网络
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-10-18 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2021.7
Ali Girayhan Ozbay, A. Hamzehloo, S. Laizet, Panagiotis Tzirakis, Georgios Rizos, B. Schuller
Abstract The Poisson equation is commonly encountered in engineering, for instance, in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) where it is needed to compute corrections to the pressure field to ensure the incompressibility of the velocity field. In the present work, we propose a novel fully convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture to infer the solution of the Poisson equation on a 2D Cartesian grid with different resolutions given the right-hand side term, arbitrary boundary conditions, and grid parameters. It provides unprecedented versatility for a CNN approach dealing with partial differential equations. The boundary conditions are handled using a novel approach by decomposing the original Poisson problem into a homogeneous Poisson problem plus four inhomogeneous Laplace subproblems. The model is trained using a novel loss function approximating the continuous $ {L}^p $ norm between the prediction and the target. Even when predicting on grids denser than previously encountered, our model demonstrates encouraging capacity to reproduce the correct solution profile. The proposed model, which outperforms well-known neural network models, can be included in a CFD solver to help with solving the Poisson equation. Analytical test cases indicate that our CNN architecture is capable of predicting the correct solution of a Poisson problem with mean percentage errors below 10%, an improvement by comparison to the first step of conventional iterative methods. Predictions from our model, used as the initial guess to iterative algorithms like Multigrid, can reduce the root mean square error after a single iteration by more than 90% compared to a zero initial guess.
摘要泊松方程在工程中很常见,例如,在计算流体动力学(CFD)中,需要计算压力场的修正,以确保速度场的不可压缩性。在目前的工作中,我们提出了一种新的全卷积神经网络(CNN)架构,在给定右侧项、任意边界条件和网格参数的情况下,以不同分辨率推断二维笛卡尔网格上泊松方程的解。它为处理偏微分方程的CNN方法提供了前所未有的通用性。通过将原始泊松问题分解为齐次泊松问题加上四个非齐次拉普拉斯子问题,使用一种新的方法来处理边界条件。该模型使用一个新的损失函数进行训练,该函数近似于预测和目标之间的连续${L}^p$范数。即使在密度比以前更大的网格上进行预测,我们的模型也证明了复制正确解决方案的令人鼓舞的能力。所提出的模型优于众所周知的神经网络模型,可以包含在CFD求解器中,以帮助求解泊松方程。分析测试案例表明,我们的CNN架构能够预测平均百分比误差低于10%的泊松问题的正确解,与传统迭代方法的第一步相比有所改进。我们模型的预测被用作Multigrid等迭代算法的初始猜测,与零初始猜测相比,单次迭代后的均方根误差可以减少90%以上。
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引用次数: 24
Anytime Monte Carlo 随时蒙特卡洛
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2016-12-10 DOI: 10.1017/dce.2021.6
Lawrence M. Murray, Sumeetpal S. Singh, Anthony Lee
Abstract Monte Carlo algorithms simulates some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the number of samples simulated being random. To complicate matters, the real time taken for each simulation may depend on the sample produced, so that the samples themselves are not independent of their number, and a length bias with respect to compute time is apparent. This is especially problematic when a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used and the final state of the Markov chain—rather than an average over all states—is required, which is the case in parallel tempering implementations of MCMC. The length bias does not diminish with the compute budget in this case. It also occurs in sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, which is the focus of this paper. We propose an anytime framework to address the concern, using a continuous-time Markov jump process to study the progress of the computation in real time. We first show that for any MCMC algorithm, the length bias of the final state’s distribution due to the imposed real-time computing budget can be eliminated by using a multiple chain construction. The utility of this construction is then demonstrated on a large-scale SMC$ {}^2 $ implementation, using four billion particles distributed across a cluster of 128 graphics processing units on the Amazon EC2 service. The anytime framework imposes a real-time budget on the MCMC move steps within the SMC$ {}^2 $ algorithm, ensuring that all processors are simultaneously ready for the resampling step, demonstrably reducing idleness to due waiting times and providing substantial control over the total compute budget.
摘要蒙特卡罗算法模拟一些规定数量的样本,取一些随机的实时时间来完成必要的计算。这项工作考虑了相反的情况:在计算中施加实时预算,这导致模拟样本的数量是随机的。更复杂的是,每次模拟所需的实时时间可能取决于产生的样本,因此样本本身并不独立于它们的数量,并且相对于计算时间的长度偏差是明显的。当使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)算法并且需要马尔可夫链的最终状态(而不是所有状态的平均值)时,这尤其成问题,这就是MCMC并行回火实现的情况。在这种情况下,长度偏差不会随着计算预算的增加而减少。在序列蒙特卡罗(SMC)算法中也会出现这种情况,这是本文研究的重点。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一个随时框架,使用连续时间马尔可夫跳跃过程来实时研究计算过程。我们首先证明,对于任何MCMC算法,由于强加的实时计算预算,最终状态分布的长度偏差可以通过使用多链结构来消除。然后在大规模SMC${}^2 $实现上演示了这种结构的效用,该实现使用分布在亚马逊EC2服务上的128个图形处理单元集群上的40亿个粒子。anytime框架在SMC${}^2 $算法中对MCMC移动步骤施加实时预算,确保所有处理器同时为重采样步骤做好准备,明显地减少了空闲到适当的等待时间,并提供了对总计算预算的实质性控制。
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引用次数: 4
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DataCentric Engineering
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