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Inertia and Pass-Through in Retail Deposit Markets 零售存款市场的惯性与传导
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3453924
Florian Deuflhard
This paper investigates heterogeneous pass-through of monetary policy rates to variable-rate savings accounts using monthly account-level panel data from a Dutch comparison website. I find incomplete and delayed pass-through that varies widely across banks but even account products offered by the same bank. Bank-specific factors explain less than half of the variation in pass-through rates. Within banks, internet-managed and newer accounts capturing market segments with more flexible consumers exhibit substantially higher pass-through than regular and older accounts. This suggests an important role of inertia for incomplete monetary transmission.
本文利用荷兰一家比较网站的月度账户水平面板数据,研究了货币政策利率对可变利率储蓄账户的异质性传递。我发现,不同银行之间不完整和延迟的传递情况差别很大,即使是同一家银行提供的账户产品也是如此。银行特有的因素解释了传导率变化的不到一半。在银行内部,互联网管理账户和新账户抓住了拥有更灵活消费者的细分市场,表现出比常规账户和旧账户高得多的传递率。这表明惯性在不完全货币传导中发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Stress Testing and Bank Lending 压力测试和银行贷款
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3432291
Joel D. Shapiro, Jing Zeng
Bank stress tests are a major form of regulatory oversight. Banks respond to the toughness of the tests by changing their lending behavior. Regulators care about bank lending; therefore, banks' reactions to the tests affect the tests' design and create a feedback loop. We demonstrate that stress tests may be (1) soft, in order to encourage lending in the future, or (2) tough, in order to deter excessive risk-taking in the future. There may be multiple equilibria due to strategic complementarity. Regulators may strategically delay stress tests. We also analyze bottom-up stress tests and banking supervision exams.
银行压力测试是监管监督的主要形式。银行通过改变贷款行为来应对测试的严峻性。监管机构关心银行贷款;因此,银行对测试的反应会影响测试的设计,并形成一个反馈循环。我们证明,压力测试可能是(1)软的,以鼓励未来的贷款,或(2)强硬的,以阻止未来的过度冒险。由于战略互补性,可能存在多重均衡。监管机构可能会战略性地推迟压力测试。我们还分析了自下而上的压力测试和银行监管考试。
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引用次数: 15
Medium-Term Asymmetric Fluctuations and EMU as an Optimum Currency Area 中期不对称波动与欧洲货币联盟作为最优货币区
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3428950
J. Hessel
Recent studies find that short-term fluctuations in EMU have been symmetric. This finding leads to benign views on the functioning of EMU as an optimum currency area (OCA), that are difficult to reconcile with the sovereign debt crisis. We try to solve this puzzle by looking at medium-term fluctuations instead, and reach five conclusions. First, medium-term fluctuations in EMU are much larger and less symmetric than short-term fluctuations. Second, medium-term fluctuations have become larger and less symmetric over time, while short-term fluctuations have become smaller and more symmetric. Third, medium-term fluctuations in EMU are less symmetric than in the US, while short-term fluctuations are more symmetric. Fourth, medium-term fluctuations in the euro area have become more strongly correlated with financial variables like credit and house prices, and less strongly correlated with real variables like productivity. Finally, medium-term fluctuations are more closely related to imbalances in price competitiveness, current accounts and budget deficits than short-term fluctuations. We conclude that our medium-term perspective has become relevant in the monetary union, due to the increasing importance of financial factors. It leads to less benign views on the functioning of EMU and on the endogenous OCA hypothesis.
最近的研究发现,欧洲货币联盟的短期波动是对称的。这一发现导致人们对欧洲货币联盟作为最优货币区(OCA)的运作持良性看法,这与主权债务危机很难调和。我们试图通过观察中期波动来解决这个难题,并得出五个结论。首先,欧洲货币联盟的中期波动比短期波动要大得多,也不那么对称。第二,随着时间的推移,中期波动变得更大、更不对称,而短期波动变得更小、更对称。第三,欧洲货币联盟的中期波动不像美国那么对称,而短期波动则更对称。第四,欧元区的中期波动与信贷和房价等金融变量的相关性越来越强,而与生产率等实际变量的相关性越来越弱。最后,中期波动与价格竞争力、经常账户和预算赤字失衡的关系比短期波动更密切。我们的结论是,由于金融因素的重要性日益增加,我们的中期观点在货币联盟中变得相关。这导致人们对欧洲货币联盟的运作和内生OCA假说的看法不那么乐观。
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引用次数: 2
State Aid and Deposit Guarantee Schemes. The CJEU Decision on Tercas and the Role of DGSs in Banking Crises 国家援助和存款保障计划。欧洲法院关于Tercas和ggs在银行危机中的作用的决定
Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3607923
Andrea Vignini
In Tercas, the General Court of the European Union decided on the actions for annulment brought against the Commission’s Decision that deemed the measures taken in 2014 by the Italian Fondo Interbancario di Tutela dei Depositi (FITD) in favor of Banca Popolare di Bari to support its acquisition of Cassa di Risparmio di Teramo, a small regional bank operating in the south of Italy, to be State aid. In this respect, the EU competition authority’s opposition to the use of the deposit guarantee scheme (DGS) was critical for the Italian Republic because, at the time of the decision, four regional banks were in the process of being bailed out by the FITD, but where ultimately instead put under resolution, with a dramatic impact on savers’ confidence.

The judgment is certainly relevant for many reasons. First, the ruling represents a benchmark in the use of a DGS after the introduction of Directives 2014/59/EU and 2014/49/EU as it implicitly defines the principles according to which a national DGS can intervene in a banking crisis without breaking EU laws on State aid. Secondly, the decision overrules the interpretation presented by the European Commission regarding the role played by the Bank of Italy in the operation carried out by the FITD for the benefit of Tercas.
在特卡斯,欧盟普通法院决定撤销针对欧盟委员会一项决定的诉讼,该决定认为,2014年,意大利Fondo Interbancario di Tutela dei Depositi (FITD)为支持巴里人民银行(Banca Popolare di Bari)收购意大利南部一家小型区域银行Cassa di Risparmio di Teramo而采取的措施属于国家援助。在这方面,欧盟竞争管理机构反对使用存款担保计划(DGS)对意大利共和国至关重要,因为在做出决定时,四家地区性银行正在接受国际金融发展局的救助,但最终却被解决了,这对储户的信心产生了巨大影响。从许多方面来看,这一判断当然是相关的。首先,在2014/59/EU和2014/49/EU指令出台后,该裁决代表了DGS使用的基准,因为它隐含地定义了国家DGS可以在不违反欧盟国家援助法律的情况下干预银行危机的原则。其次,该决定推翻了欧洲委员会对意大利银行在国际货币基金组织为Tercas开展的业务中所起作用的解释。
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引用次数: 1
Role of Rural Self Employment Training Institutes in Implementation of Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme 农村自营职业培训机构在实施总理创造就业方案中的作用
Pub Date : 2019-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3863107
Cirappa I B, Punith Kumar D G
In the context of the need for promoting self-employment for the unemployed rural youth, particularly those below the poverty line the periodic skill up gradation and financial assistance is very essential to keep them ready to exploit the available entrepreneurial opportunities. PMEGP is the credit linked subsidy programme aimed at generating self employment opportunities through establishment of MSMEs. The present study aimed at assessing the role of RSETIs in implementation of PMEGP. The study is conducted at Canara Bank RSETI, Tholahunase, Davangere with 30 respondents. The study revealed that there is a significant improvement in management, marketing, financial management skills and knowledge about Government Schemes among the candidates after training. Majority of respondents felt there is a requirement of attending PMEGP training and they influenced others to attend it. Finally it is suggested to update the training modules on the basis of present requirements and to increase the more off the campus training programmes.
在需要促进失业农村青年,特别是在贫穷线以下的失业农村青年的自营职业方面,定期提高技能和提供财政援助对于使他们随时准备利用现有的创业机会是非常必要的。PMEGP是与信贷挂钩的补贴方案,旨在通过建立微型中小企业创造自雇机会。本研究旨在评估rseti在PMEGP实施中的作用。这项研究是在达文吉雷的托拉hunase的卡纳拉银行RSETI进行的,有30名受访者。调查显示,应征者在接受培训后,在管理、市场推广、财务管理技能及政府计划知识方面均有显著改善。大多数受访者认为有参加PMEGP培训的要求,并影响其他人参加。最后,建议根据目前的需要更新培训单元,并增加更多的校外培训方案。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation Interdependence in Advanced Economies 发达经济体的通货膨胀相互依赖
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3411023
L. J. Álvarez, Ana Gómez-Loscos, Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas
Although there is a vast literature on GDP comovement across countries, there is scant evidence on inflation interdependence. We analyze inflation comovements across a wide set of advanced economies and across the subset of euro area countries. Some of our findings are expected, such as the fact that inflation interdependence among advanced economies is quite relevant, but is higher among euro area countries, which show strong trade links and a share common monetary policy, or the fact that inflation synchronization among countries is highest for energy prices, reflecting common oil shocks. We also find a robust puzzle: core inflation interdependence is fairly low and this result holds for both core goods and services. Inflation synchronization seems to be particularly linked to comovements in driving variables of open economy new Keynesian Phillips curve and mark-up pricing models.
尽管有大量关于各国GDP变动的文献,但关于通胀相互依赖的证据却很少。我们分析了一系列发达经济体和欧元区国家的通胀走势。我们的一些发现是意料之中的,比如发达经济体之间的通胀相互依赖非常相关,但欧元区国家之间的通胀相互依赖程度更高,因为欧元区国家表现出强大的贸易联系和共同的货币政策,或者各国之间的通胀同步是能源价格最高的,反映了共同的石油冲击。我们还发现了一个令人困惑的问题:核心通胀相互依赖程度相当低,这一结果适用于核心商品和服务。通胀同步似乎特别与开放经济驱动变量的变动有关,新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线和加价定价模型。
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引用次数: 17
Cross-Border Claims and Banking Crises: An Early Warning System for Small Open Economies 跨境债权和银行危机:小型开放经济体的预警系统
Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3374490
D. Dieckelmann
This paper presents an early warning system for predicting banking crises specifically tailored to developed small open economies. The model considers two sources of financial instability: Domestic macro-financial imbalances and exposure to foreign banking systems with high crisis risk. Exposure of small open economies is measured by their total cross-border bank claims against foreign countries relative to GDP and weighted by the domestic risk of banking crisis in the foreign economies. A combined system that captures both national and foreign-induced risks outperforms conventional domestic early warning models. Further, the system correctly predicts crisis incidence out-of-sample for every small open economy in the sample prior to the Global Financial Crisis. Low banking exposure to highly leveraged foreign economies explains the resilience of many small open economies during the recent crisis.
本文提出了一个专门针对发达小型开放经济体的银行危机预警系统。该模型考虑了金融不稳定的两个来源:国内宏观金融失衡和对具有高危机风险的外国银行体系的敞口。小型开放经济体的风险敞口是通过其对外国的跨境银行债权总额相对于GDP来衡量的,并以外国经济体的银行危机的国内风险来加权。一个既能捕捉国内风险又能捕捉国外风险的综合系统比传统的国内预警模型要好。此外,该系统正确预测了全球金融危机前样本中每个小型开放经济体的样本外危机发生率。银行业对高杠杆外国经济体的敞口较低,解释了为何许多小型开放经济体在最近的危机中表现出弹性。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Rules without Romance 没有浪漫的货币规则
Pub Date : 2019-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3375400
Bryan P. Cutsinger
How much independence should the monetary authority retain in a rules-based regime? The conventional wisdom holds that while the political system - particularly in a democratic society - should determine the overarching goal of monetary policy, the central bank should remain free to select whichever "levers" it deems most appropriate for achieving the goal. This paper evaluates whether instrument independence is consistent with the goals of a rules-based regime by examining the monetary and macroeconomic effects of allowing the monetary authority discretion over the choice of control procedures when its objectives are at odds with the public interest. I argue that while a benevolent monetary authority would always select the most "efficient" policy instrument, i.e., the instrument consistent with achieving its stated objective, an opportunistic one may intentionally choose instruments that obscure its objectives, thereby undermining the purpose of monetary rules.
在一个以规则为基础的制度中,货币当局应保持多大程度的独立性?传统观点认为,虽然政治体制——尤其是民主社会——应决定货币政策的总体目标,但央行仍应自由选择它认为最适合实现这一目标的任何“杠杆”。本文通过考察允许货币当局在控制程序的选择上自由裁量权在其目标与公众利益不一致时所产生的货币和宏观经济影响,评估工具独立性是否与基于规则的制度的目标一致。我认为,虽然仁慈的货币当局总是会选择最“有效”的政策工具,即与实现其既定目标相一致的工具,但机会主义的人可能会故意选择模糊其目标的工具,从而破坏货币规则的目的。
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引用次数: 0
When Central Banks Buy Corporate Bonds: Target Selection and Impact of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program 当央行购买公司债券:目标选择和欧洲公司部门购买计划的影响
Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3091751
Rients Galema, S. Lugo
Abstract We study the timing of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program and its direct effect on corporate financing decisions. Consistent with the goal of reducing credit premia, more timely purchases are observed for eligible bonds characterized by higher credit risk. Firms effectively targeted increase their relative use of market debt and the maturity of newly issued bonds more than eligible but not (yet) targeted issuers. The estimated effect is not driven by the verified relation between selection and credit risk. The program has fostered the ability to tap credit markets directly especially for eligible corporations whose bonds are actually purchased.
摘要本文研究了欧洲企业部门购买计划的时机及其对企业融资决策的直接影响。与降低信用溢价的目标相一致,对信用风险较高的合格债券进行了更及时的购买。有针对性的公司有效地增加了市场债务的相对使用,新发行的债券的到期日超过了合格但(尚未)有针对性的发行人。估计的效果不是由已验证的选择与信用风险之间的关系驱动的。该计划培养了直接利用信贷市场的能力,特别是对那些债券被实际购买的符合条件的公司。
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引用次数: 16
Prudential Regulation and Financial Information in Spanish Banks: 1995-2015 西班牙银行审慎监管与金融信息:1995-2015
Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3372954
Salvador Marín Hernández, Ester Gras Gil, Esther Ortiz Martínez
In this paper we seek to ascertain whether the changes in prudential financial regulation in Spain in the period 1995–2015 have had an effect on financial stability and whether this can be assessed for Spain from the behavior of the z-score and the LLP variables, as has been done elsewhere. We analyze the implementation of the statistical or dynamic provision in 2000 and also the adoption of the Basel II agreement in 2008. The sample analyzed comprises 48 Spanish banks. As our main conclusions, we provide evidence that the changes that have taken place in prudential financial regulation in Spain cannot be adequately analyzed and interpreted with the behavior of the z-score and LLP variables for that period, since in this context they are not good indicators of greater or lesser financial stability due to interference from the Spanish banking regulator.
在本文中,我们试图确定1995-2015年期间西班牙审慎金融监管的变化是否对金融稳定产生了影响,以及这是否可以从z-score和LLP变量的行为来评估西班牙,就像其他地方所做的那样。我们分析了2000年统计或动态条款的实施情况,以及2008年巴塞尔协议II的通过情况。所分析的样本包括48家西班牙银行。作为我们的主要结论,我们提供的证据表明,西班牙审慎金融监管中发生的变化无法用z-score和LLP变量在该时期的行为进行充分的分析和解释,因为在这种情况下,由于西班牙银行监管机构的干预,它们不是金融稳定性或高或低的良好指标。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Banking & Monetary Policy (Topic)
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