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Fixed Investments and Macroeconomic Agent-Based Modeling 固定投资与宏观经济主体模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2021-21-1-5-28
A. Tsyplakov, L. Melnikova
The significant progress observed in the field of artificial economy opens up new possibilities for modeling economic growth. Agent-based models (ABM) allow leaving the concept of a representative agent in the past and linking investment decisions of economic agents at the micro level with long-term macroeconomic growth. Modern ABMs offer new algorithms for modeling expectations, agent interaction, technical progress, pricing, and production planning. Our article analyzes the current state of modeling investment in fixed assets in operating macroeconomic ABMs. The subject of the review is the families of models Eurace, CATS, KS, Jamel, Lagom. The authors also present the investment block of the agent-based multiregional input-output model (ABMIOM) being developed. Comparative analysis demonstrates that modern ABMs, as a rule, implement the principle of stock-flow consistency. Modeling the investment process requires detailing the commodity nomenclature, so that the initially adopted two-sector division into investment and consumer goods is replaced by more detailed structures, which gives rise to the problem of accounting for inter-sectoral relations in production and consumption. The Leontief production function copes with this problem, which is confirmed by its widespread use in ABM. The size of firms' investments is often derived from the need to expand capacity in accordance with the current production plan, so that planning turns out to be myopic, and long-term aspects in ABM are still largely unrealized. Nevertheless, already now ABMs reproduce many phenomena associated with the economic cycle. The developed ABMIOM provides horizontal consistency of cash flows between agents and analysis of results using input-output tables. ABMIOM represents a step forward in reflecting intersectoral and interregional flows. The model reproduces the growth and contraction of the economy as a result of independent investment decisions of individual firms and households, which is reflected in the sectoral and spatial structure of the economy. Further development of ABMIOM is associated with the modeling of savings, intrafirm finance, money market, innovation and technical progress.
人工经济领域的重大进展为经济增长建模开辟了新的可能性。基于主体的模型(ABM)允许将代表性主体的概念留在过去,并将微观层面上经济主体的投资决策与长期宏观经济增长联系起来。现代的ABMs为期望建模、代理交互、技术进步、定价和生产计划提供了新的算法。本文分析了宏观经济资产管理模型中固定资产投资建模的现状。审查的主题是模型的家庭Eurace, CATS, KS, Jamel, Lagom。作者还介绍了正在开发的基于agent的多区域投入产出模型(ABMIOM)的投资块。对比分析表明,现代资产负债表总体上执行的是库存流量一致性原则。对投资过程进行建模需要详细说明商品命名法,以便用更详细的结构取代最初采用的分为投资和消费品的两个部门的划分,这就产生了核算生产和消费的部门间关系的问题。Leontief生产函数解决了这个问题,它在ABM中的广泛应用证实了这一点。企业的投资规模往往是根据当前的生产计划扩大产能的需要而产生的,因此,计划变成了短视的,而ABM的长期方面在很大程度上仍然没有实现。然而,现在的ABMs已经重现了许多与经济周期相关的现象。开发的ABMIOM提供代理之间现金流量的横向一致性,并使用投入产出表分析结果。阿布德观察团在反映部门间和区域间流动方面向前迈进了一步。该模型再现了个体企业和家庭独立投资决策导致的经济增长和收缩,这反映在经济的部门和空间结构中。ABMIOM的进一步发展与储蓄、公司内部财务、货币市场、创新和技术进步的建模有关。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of the Internal Energy Russian People during 1905–1917 1905-1917年俄国人民内在能量的评价
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2017-17-2-142-149
M. M. Mannanov, E. Pavlova, A. I. Khisaeva
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the strength of patents of russian research institutions 俄罗斯科研机构专利实力分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2020-20-2-68-83
L. Perepechko, I. A. Sharina, N. Grishina, Anastasiya R. Rakhmanova
This paper study problem of the efficiency of management of intellectual property (IP) of research institutes and universities, proposes criteria and method of an assessment of the patent strength. The basic patent index and the average strength of patents were calculated for the institutes of SB RAS, Novosibirsk State University (NSU), Indian Institutes of Technology Delhi, and PJSC “Sibur Holding”. The results showed that the IP of institutes and NSU has a low level of protection, which explains its low demand in the market. The average strength of patents and the basic patent index are the indicators that can be recommended for inclusion into the reporting indices of the efficiency of management of IP of research institutes and universities.
本文对科研院所和高校知识产权管理效率问题进行了研究,提出了专利实力评估的标准和方法。计算了SB RAS、新西伯利亚国立大学(NSU)、印度理工学院德里分校和PJSC“Sibur Holding”的基本专利指数和平均专利强度。结果表明,科研院所和新大的知识产权保护水平较低,市场需求较低。专利平均强度和专利基本指数是建议纳入科研院所和高校知识产权管理效率报告指标的指标。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Impact of Workers’ Education in the Regions of Russia on Volumes of Production of Gross Regional Product 评估俄罗斯地区工人教育对地区生产总值的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2018-18-3-42-54
A. Berezovskaya, A. Koritsky
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引用次数: 4
Analysis of the Specifics of Effectiveness in High-Tech Companies 高新技术公司有效性的具体问题分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2020-20-4-113-137
A. Goryushkin
High-tech sector is recognized as an important long-term priority for the development of any economy; therefore, purposeful support and encouraging the development of this sector requires highlighting the specificities of high-tech and knowledge-intensive companies. This study provides an empirical test of the existence of differences in some parameters between the companies in high-tech and traditional sectors of the economy with BEEPS microeconomic data base by the following characteristics: level of research and development intensity; level of personnel qualification; technological and financial capabilities; business orientation to the global market. The test is based on the Student’s t-test, i.e. statistical comparison of the average values of the parameters for the companies in the specified sectors. For verification, the data from direct surveys of domestic manufacturing and production service companies, the data from the surveys of companies from the EAEU countries and some Eastern European countries were used.It has been revealed that in Eastern European countries, high-tech companies of any sectors more heavily invest in R & D. In Russia, this is true only for the production sector. At the same time, the level of innovative activity for domestic production companies is generally consistent with the level of the companies in other countries under study. Like in many European companies, a significantly large proportion of domestic high-tech companies pays attention to the introduction of new methods f production, management, and product promotion.The need to acquire or rent equipment is equally important for high-tech and low-tech companies, and there are no significant differences in access to financial resources.It has been also revealed that the Russian high-tech production companies are more focused on the national market, whereas the low-tech companies are orientated to the local one. At the same time, the high-tech business is still characterized by a higher share of products shipped for export as compared to the average level of industrial exports.
高科技部门被认为是任何经济体发展的重要长期优先事项;因此,有目的的支持和鼓励这一部门的发展需要突出高科技和知识密集型公司的特点。本研究利用BEEPS微观经济数据库,通过以下特征对高新技术企业与传统经济企业在某些参数上存在差异进行了实证检验:研发强度水平;人员素质水平;技术和财政能力;业务面向全球市场。该检验基于Student 's t检验,即对指定行业中公司的参数平均值进行统计比较。为了验证,我们使用了对国内制造业和生产服务企业的直接调查数据,以及对EAEU国家和部分东欧国家企业的调查数据。据透露,在东欧国家,任何行业的高科技公司都在研发方面投入了大量资金。在俄罗斯,这种情况只发生在生产领域。同时,国内生产企业的创新活动水平与研究中其他国家企业的水平大体一致。与许多欧洲公司一样,相当大比例的国内高科技公司注重引进新的生产、管理方法和产品推广。购置或租用设备的需要对高技术公司和低技术公司同样重要,在获得财政资源方面没有显著差别。据透露,俄罗斯的高科技生产公司更侧重于全国市场,而低技术公司则面向当地市场。与此同时,与工业出口的平均水平相比,高科技行业的特点仍然是出口产品所占的份额较高。
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引用次数: 1
Criteria for successful social entrepreneurship in the Primorsky region 滨海边疆区成功社会企业的标准
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2020-20-1-99-115
V. Zhokhova
The article is aimed at studying social entrepreneurship success and identifying the opinions of social entrepreneurs in the Primorsky region (krai) on the criteria for assessing the success of their activities and the reasons for choosing these criteria. The goal and the specific scope of the research required the application of such scientific instrumentation as case studies, interviews, observation and survey of entrepreneurs of social businesses of the Primorsky region in the period 2016-2017. The data used in the research were taken from various scientific journals and articles on management and entrepreneurship. The concept of success as well as the criteria for assessing the success of social entrepreneurship still remains insufficiently studied. The nature of social entrepreneurship is still the subject of scientific discussion, and there has always been contradictions in the definition of this concept. In social entrepreneurship, it is important to have a mixed mission, including both social and economic components. The respondents defined the success of social entrepreneurship as “a social business which is aimed to solve problems in the system of social protection, yield profit and financial stability, and provide the opportunity for its development”, with public utility and shared value being the main criteria to assess the success of social businesses. Preliminary results of the study can contribute to the development of theoretical knowledge for understanding social entrepreneurship nature and the success of its development. The relevance and practical application of this study is that the obtained results can help social entrepreneurs in making decisions on the analysis of their own enterprises’ success in accordance with their strategies, goals and objectives. The further scientific research in this field will require a longitudinal study to trace the dynamics of social enterprises in order to generalize the obtained results.
本文旨在研究社会企业家的成功,并确定滨海地区(krai)社会企业家对评估其活动成功的标准和选择这些标准的原因的意见。研究的目标和具体范围要求采用案例研究、访谈、观察和调查等科学手段,对2016-2017年滨海边疆区社会企业企业家进行调查。研究中使用的数据来自各种科学期刊和关于管理和创业的文章。成功的概念以及评估社会企业成功的标准仍然没有得到充分的研究。社会企业家精神的本质仍然是科学讨论的主题,在这个概念的定义上一直存在矛盾。在社会创业中,重要的是要有一个混合的使命,包括社会和经济的组成部分。受访者将社会企业的成功定义为“以解决社会保障制度中的问题为目标,产生利润和财务稳定,并为其发展提供机会的社会企业”,而公共效用和共享价值是衡量社会企业成功的主要标准。本研究的初步结果可以为理解社会企业家精神的本质和社会企业家精神的成功发展提供理论知识。本研究的相关性和实际应用在于,所得结果可以帮助社会企业家根据自己的战略、目标和目的,对自己企业的成功进行分析,从而做出决策。在这一领域的进一步科学研究需要进行纵向研究,追踪社会企业的动态,以便概括所取得的成果。
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引用次数: 0
Agglomeration as a Factor of Modernizing Monotowns of the South Kuzbass 集聚是库兹巴斯南部单一城镇现代化的一个因素
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2018-18-2-86-100
O. Urban, N. Demchuk
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引用次数: 1
Pupils’ Professional Plans and Labor Market Demands of the Regions of the Russian Arctic Zone: Coordination of Interests 俄罗斯北极地区学生职业规划与劳动力市场需求:利益协调
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2020-20-2-149-177
A. Simakova, V. Gurtov
The article considers the professional interests of schoolchildren in the Arctic regions in comparison with the demand of the labor market and leading employers. The study of professional preferences of schoolchildren in the face of a staff shortage of the economy of the Arctic regions and the increased interest in the development of these territories is relevant. It is youth that forms the basis for the timely reproduction of human capital. The purpose of the study is to identify professional plans of schoolchildren in the Arctic regions and to compare plans with the needs of the labor market and employers of the regions. The empirical basis of the study is official statistics (data from Rostrud for 2018), a survey of leading employers and students in grades 8–10 of the Arctic regions. The originality of the study lies in comparing tripartite interests – the labor market, employers and schoolchildren as potential professionals who build a career path. The entire array of professions obtained is compared on the basis of structural analysis. According to vacancies, requests of employers and preferences of schoolchildren, there is an intersection in certain professions. Details of professions by educational level showed inconsistency: for va cancies and employers, workers with secondary vocational education are in demand, but schoolchildren are more oriented toward higher education; the professional groups of engineering, technical and social professions also revealed a discrepancy. These results are useful for authorities, the scientific and pedagogical community in the formation of mechanisms for securing future young specialists in the Arctic regions.
本文将北极地区学童的专业兴趣与劳动力市场和主要雇主的需求进行比较。面对北极地区经济人员短缺和对这些地区发展的兴趣增加,研究学童的专业偏好是相关的。正是青年构成了人力资本及时再生产的基础。本研究的目的是确定北极地区学童的专业计划,并将这些计划与该地区劳动力市场和雇主的需求进行比较。该研究的经验基础是官方统计数据(2018年来自罗斯特鲁德的数据),这是一项对北极地区8-10年级主要雇主和学生的调查。这项研究的独创性在于比较了三方利益——劳动力市场、雇主和学生作为建立职业道路的潜在专业人士。在结构分析的基础上,对得到的整个职业序列进行比较。根据职位空缺、雇主的要求和学生的偏好,某些职业存在交叉点。不同教育水平的职业细节显示出不一致:对于职位和雇主来说,需要受过中等职业教育的工人,但学童更倾向于接受高等教育;工程、技术和社会专业的专业群体也显示出差异。这些结果对当局、科学界和教育界在形成确保北极地区未来年轻专家的机制方面是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Scenario Forecasting of Industrial Production Development on the Basis of Economic Agents Expectations Modeling: Methodical Approaches and Their Approbation 基于经济主体期望模型的工业生产发展情景预测:方法方法及其认可
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2017-17-4-39-52
M. Safiullin, L. A. Elshin
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Nonmonetary Factors on Inflation Dynamics in Russia in the Period of 2000–2018 2000-2018年非货币因素对俄罗斯通货膨胀动态的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2020-20-4-99-112
Victoria E. Nekrestova, I. A. Somova
The paper reviews the effect of nonmonetary factors on inflation dynamics in Russia from 2000 to 2018. The period under review was divided into two intervals with different economic dynamics: 2000–2008 – the period of economic growth in Russia, 2009–2018 – the period of a slower rate of economic growth. Both periods were analyzed for various nonmonetary factors having an impact on inflation, which helped reveal common as well as distinctive features of nonmonetary factors. Some factors, such as the growth rate of agricultural prices had a significant impact on the consumer price inflation dynamics over the whole period under research. Other nonmonetary factors ceased to have an effect on consumer prices making room for others. Thus, the volume of imports turned out to be significant only in the period from 2009 to 2018, which is explained by the geopolitical situation and introduced economic sanctions. The conducted research confirmed a growing role of nonmonetary factors in the inflation processes. This conclusion requires consideration of specific features of nonmonetary causes of inflation on behalf of the Central bank and the fiscal organs in development of concrete steps to reduce inflation. The priority should continue to be given to effective tariff regulation, modernization of industry and promotion of competition.
本文回顾了2000 - 2018年俄罗斯非货币因素对通货膨胀动态的影响。回顾期间被分为两个具有不同经济动态的时期:2000-2008年-俄罗斯经济增长时期,2009-2018年-经济增长速度放缓时期。对这两个时期影响通货膨胀的各种非货币因素进行了分析,这有助于揭示非货币因素的共同特征和独特特征。一些因素,如农产品价格的增长率,对整个研究期间的消费者价格通胀动态有显著影响。其他非货币因素不再对消费者价格产生影响,为其他因素腾出空间。因此,只有在2009年至2018年期间,进口量才显得很大,这可以解释为地缘政治局势和实施的经济制裁。所进行的研究证实了非货币因素在通货膨胀过程中的作用越来越大。这一结论需要考虑通货膨胀的非货币原因的具体特征,代表中央银行和财政机构制定具体的措施来减少通货膨胀。应继续优先考虑有效的关税管制、工业现代化和促进竞争。
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引用次数: 2
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Wem-water Engineering & Management
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