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The Economics of Financial Integration 金融一体化经济学
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/9781108643849.007
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Institutional Investors 机构投资者的角色
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/9781108643849.010
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引用次数: 22
Financial Stability 金融稳定
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/9781108643849.014
Financial stability can be defined as a situation in the economy, characterized by the absence of disproportions, which may cause a negative correction of the financial markets, emergence of a systemic financial crisis or inability of the financial institutions to maintain uniform financial system operations. Financial stability is maintained by adequate regulations of the current and potential risks, by the effectiveness of the risk management and risk redistribution mechanisms, and by the assurance of the public’s confidence in the financial system.
金融稳定可以定义为经济中的一种状况,其特征是不存在可能导致金融市场出现负面修正、出现系统性金融危机或金融机构无法维持统一的金融体系运作的失衡情况。维持金融稳定,离不开对当前和潜在风险的适当监管,离不开风险管理和风险再分配机制的有效性,离不开公众对金融体系的信心。
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引用次数: 0
European Banks 欧洲银行
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.1017/9781108643849.011
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引用次数: 0
ACCURACY VERSUS COMPLEXITY TRADE-OFF IN VaR MODELING: COULD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BE A SOLUTION? VaR模型的准确性与复杂性权衡:技术分析能解决问题吗?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-22 DOI: 10.1142/s2282717x19500038
Evangelos Vasileiou
Accurate Value at Risk (VaR) estimations are crucial for the robustness and stability of a financial system. Even though significant advances have been made in the field of risk modeling, many crises have emerged during the same period, and an explanation for this is that the advanced models are not widely applied in the financial industry due to their mathematical complexity. In contrast to the mathematically complex models that torture the data in the output stage, we suggest a new approach that filters the data inputs, based on Technical Analysis (TA) signals. When the trading signals suggest that the conditions are positive (negative) for investments we use data from the previously documented positive (negative) periods in order to calculate the VaR. In this way, we use input data that are more representative of the financial conditions under examination and thus VaR estimations are more accurate and more representative (nonprocyclical) than the conventional models’ estimation that use the last nonfiltered [Formula: see text]-day observations. Testing our assumptions in the US stock market for the period 2000–2017, the empirical data confirmed our hypothesis. Moreover, we suggest specific legislative adjustments that contribute to more accurate and representative VaR estimations: (i) an extra backtesting procedure at a lower than the 99% confidence level as a procyclicality test and (ii) to ease the minimum requirement of 250 observations that is currently the input threshold because it leads to less accurate VaR estimations.
准确的风险值(VaR)估计对金融系统的稳健性和稳定性至关重要。尽管在风险建模领域取得了重大进展,但在同一时期出现了许多危机,对此的解释是,由于其数学复杂性,先进的模型在金融行业中没有得到广泛应用。与在输出阶段折磨数据的数学复杂模型相反,我们提出了一种基于技术分析(TA)信号过滤数据输入的新方法。当交易信号表明投资条件为正(负)时,我们使用先前记录的正(负)时期的数据来计算VaR。通过这种方式,我们使用更能代表所检查的财务状况的输入数据,因此VaR估计比使用最后一个非过滤[公式:见文本]日观察的传统模型估计更准确,更具代表性(非顺周期)。通过对2000-2017年美国股市的实证数据验证了我们的假设。此外,我们建议进行具体的立法调整,以促进更准确和更具代表性的VaR估计:(i)在低于99%置信水平的情况下进行额外的回测程序,作为顺周期性检验;(ii)放宽250个观测值的最低要求,目前这是输入阈值,因为它导致VaR估计不太准确。
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引用次数: 2
THE EFFICIENCY OF ENSEMBLE CLASSIFIERS IN PREDICTING THE JOHANNESBURG STOCK EXCHANGE ALL-SHARE INDEX DIRECTION 集成分类器预测约翰内斯堡证券交易所全股指数走势的效率
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-11 DOI: 10.1142/s2282717x19500014
T. Mokoaleli-Mokoteli, Shaun Ramsumar, Hima Vadapalli
The success of investors in obtaining huge financial rewards from the stock market depends on their ability to predict the direction of the stock market index. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of several ensemble prediction models (Boosted, RUS-Boosted, Subspace Disc, Bagged, and Subspace KNN) in predicting the daily direction of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All-Share index compared to other commonly used machine learning techniques including support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression and [Formula: see text]-nearest neighbor (KNN). The findings in this study show that, among all ensemble models, Boosted algorithm is the best performer followed by RUS-Boosted. When compared to the other techniques, ensemble technique (represented by Boosted) outperformed these techniques, followed by KNN, logistic regression and SVM, respectively. These findings suggest that investors should include ensemble models among the index prediction models if they want to make huge profits in the stock markets. However, not all investors can benefit from this as models may suffer from alpha decay as more and more investors use them, implying that the successful algorithms have limited shelf life.
投资者能否成功地从股票市场获得巨大的经济回报,取决于他们对股票市场指数走向的预测能力。本研究的目的是评估几种集成预测模型(boosting、russ - boosting、Subspace Disc、Bagged和Subspace KNN)与其他常用的机器学习技术(包括支持向量机(SVM)、逻辑回归和最近邻(KNN))相比,在预测约翰内斯堡证券交易所(JSE)全股指数的每日方向方面的功效。本研究结果表明,在所有集成模型中,boosting算法的性能最好,其次是rus - boosting。与其他技术相比,集成技术(以boosting为代表)的性能优于这些技术,其次是KNN、逻辑回归和支持向量机。这些发现表明,投资者要想在股票市场上获得巨大的利润,就应该在指数预测模型中加入集合模型。然而,并不是所有的投资者都能从中受益,因为随着越来越多的投资者使用模型,模型可能会遭受α衰减,这意味着成功的算法的保质期有限。
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引用次数: 3
THE INVESTMENT CERTIFICATES IN THE ITALIAN MARKET: A COMPARISON OF QUOTED AND ESTIMATED PRICES 意大利市场的投资证书:报价和估价的比较
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-26 DOI: 10.1142/S2282717X19500026
Brando Viganò, S. Vitali, S. Vitali, Vittorio Moriggia, Giovanna Zanotti
Investment certificates are securitized derivatives built as a combination of financial instruments. The financial engineering process aims to create new payoff profiles that allow investors to diversify or to hedge the risk of their portfolios. Such instruments are relatively challenging to price, as highlighted in the recent publications for other European markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether in the Italian market there are also differences between the quoted price and the estimated price obtained applying a standard pricing approach well known in the literature. In particular, we analyze three representative certificates, belonging to the classes of target coupon certificates and autocallable certificates, that have been most appreciated by the investors during the last years. To evaluate the price, we propose a Monte Carlo approach that computes directly the payoff of the certificates on a set of scenarios for the evolution of the underlying asset. Moreover, studying the payoff profile of the certificates, we investigate and comment on the recent regulatory debate on “complexity”. We show that complexity, the new parameter behind return and risk, should not be necessarily associated with the engineering level of the financial products and that, sometimes, complexity is not associated with risk.
投资凭证是作为金融工具组合而成的证券化衍生品。金融工程流程旨在创建新的收益概况,使投资者能够分散投资组合或对冲其投资组合的风险。正如最近针对其他欧洲市场的出版物所强调的那样,这些工具的定价相对具有挑战性。本文的目的是分析在意大利市场是否也有报价和估计价格之间的差异应用标准定价方法在文献中众所周知。我们特别分析了三种代表性的证券,它们分别属于目标息票证券和可自动赎回证券,这三种证券在过去几年中最受投资者的青睐。为了评估价格,我们提出了一种蒙特卡罗方法,该方法直接计算基础资产演变的一组场景下证书的收益。此外,研究了证书的收益概况,我们调查和评论了最近关于“复杂性”的监管辩论。我们展示了复杂性,回报和风险背后的新参数,不应该必然与金融产品的工程水平相关联,有时,复杂性与风险无关。
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引用次数: 1
SUSTAINABLE COMPENSATION AND PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN BANKS 可持续薪酬与绩效:欧洲银行的实证分析
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2282717X19400048
Elisabetta D’Apolito, Antonia Patrizia Iannuzzi, S. S. Labini, E. Sica
This study investigates the financial and non-financial impacts of the use of sustainability criteria in banks’ executive compensation plans. The sample covers all the globally and systemically important European banks over the period 2013–2017. Panel data-fixed effect estimations are employed to mitigate endogeneity concerns and to control for within-firm dynamics. The implementation of sustainable criteria in the banks’ remuneration contracts was found to (i) negatively impact economic performance, (ii) negatively impact the riskiness profile, and (iii) positively impact sustainability performance. These findings have important implications for investors as well as banks. Indeed, these results are encouraging for the use of sustainability targets in executive compensation for restricting excessive risk-taking behaviors and improving sustainability performance.
本研究探讨了在银行高管薪酬计划中使用可持续性标准的财务和非财务影响。样本涵盖了2013-2017年期间所有具有全球和系统重要性的欧洲银行。采用面板数据固定效应估计来减轻内生性问题和控制企业内部动态。研究发现,在银行薪酬合同中实施可持续标准会(i)对经济绩效产生负面影响,(ii)对风险概况产生负面影响,(iii)对可持续绩效产生积极影响。这些发现对投资者和银行都有重要意义。事实上,这些结果对于在高管薪酬中使用可持续性目标以限制过度冒险行为和改善可持续性绩效是令人鼓舞的。
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引用次数: 6
THE PECULIARITY OF THE COOPERATIVE AND MUTUAL MODEL: EVIDENCE FROM THE EUROPEAN BANKING SECTOR 合作互助模式的特殊性:来自欧洲银行业的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2282717X19400012
Vincenzo Pacelli, F. Pampurini, S. S. Labini
The crucial role of mutual banks in promoting local development is highlighted by an extensive theoretical and empirical literature. The historical success of mutual banks derives not only from their specific business model, but also from their peculiar and distinguishing corporate governance with member ownership. According to a copious literature, these features have probably allowed mutual banks to better withstand financial crisis. This work compares the cost efficiency of European mutual banks by analyzing a sample which consists of the universe of all the banks operating in Italy, Germany, France and Spain over the period 2011–2016, by employing a stochastic approach (Stochastic Frontier Analysis-SFA) to determine the effects of the recent financial crisis on the efficiency level of this particular kind of bank. The analysis aims to point out the determinants of efficiency in order to understand if the mutual model reveals to be still attractive in the modern banking system. The main contribution of the paper to previous literature consists in comparing different impacts of financial crisis on efficiency of mutual banks in main European countries. Furthermore, the results enrich the recent debate about the cooperative and mutual banking system and its raison d’être. Our results show that the European mutual banks reveal a higher degree of efficiency with respect to commercial banks. Cost efficiency appears to be significantly and negatively related to the level of regulatory capital, the level of credit risk, the level of leverage and the cost-income ratio. On the other hand, it is significantly and positively related to the profitability of the traditional lending activity, to the level of prudence in terms of provisions against credit risk and to the amount of liquidity as a buffer against unexpected troubles.
大量的理论和实证文献强调了互助银行在促进地方发展方面的关键作用。互助银行在历史上的成功不仅源于其独特的商业模式,还源于其独特的会员制公司治理模式。根据大量文献,这些特点可能使互助银行能够更好地抵御金融危机。本研究通过分析2011-2016年期间在意大利、德国、法国和西班牙经营的所有银行的样本,采用随机方法(随机前沿分析- sfa)来确定最近的金融危机对这种特殊类型银行效率水平的影响,比较了欧洲互助银行的成本效率。分析的目的是指出效率的决定因素,以了解如果相互模型显示仍然有吸引力的现代银行体系。本文对以往文献的主要贡献在于比较了金融危机对欧洲主要国家互助银行效率的不同影响。此外,研究结果丰富了最近关于合作和互助银行体系及其建立être的原因的争论。研究结果表明,相对于商业银行,欧洲互助银行表现出更高的效率程度。成本效率似乎与监管资本水平、信用风险水平、杠杆水平和成本收入比呈显著负相关。另一方面,它与传统贷款活动的盈利能力、针对信贷风险拨备的审慎程度以及作为应对意外麻烦缓冲的流动性数量有着显著的正相关。
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引用次数: 3
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING SECTOR: SOME REMARKS ON DIVERSITY 欧洲银行业的公司治理:关于多样性的一些评论
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2282717X1975001X
F. Arnaboldi
This work discusses some of the critical aspects of bank corporate governance in the European Union. Enhancing sound corporate governance practices has become one of the major concerns in the supervisory authority’s agenda and one of the critical features to evaluate banks’ stability. The global rethinking about corporate governance rules has translated into a stronger focus on board diversity for EU banks. The existing literature and sound corporate governance practices support the view that different types of board members may bring different capabilities to their banks. Even if board diversity may add complexity to the functioning of the board, the advantages it brings are of utmost importance in the challenging environment banks are facing. This work highlights the fragmentation of the EU corporate governance rules as banks have to comply with 27 sets of different regulations and codes. This complexity should not be ignored, as member states’ specificities, legal systems, and a more general openness to diversity influence the effect reforms may have on banks’ performance and stability.
这项工作讨论了欧盟银行公司治理的一些关键方面。加强良好的公司治理实践已成为监管机构的主要关注点之一,也是评估银行稳定性的关键特征之一。全球对公司治理规则的重新思考,已转化为对欧盟银行董事会多样性的更加关注。现有文献和良好的公司治理实践支持这样一种观点,即不同类型的董事会成员可能给银行带来不同的能力。尽管董事会多元化可能会增加董事会运作的复杂性,但它带来的优势在银行面临的充满挑战的环境中至关重要。这项工作凸显了欧盟公司治理规则的碎片化,因为银行必须遵守27套不同的法规和守则。这种复杂性不应被忽视,因为成员国的特殊性、法律体系和对多样性的更普遍的开放程度会影响改革对银行业绩和稳定性的影响。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Financial Management Markets and Institutions
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