Accurate prediction of the deposition temperature of carbon dioxide (DTCD) in natural gas (NG) mixtures is essential for cryogenic gas processing. In this study, advanced machine learning models, including support vector machines (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and gene expression programming (GEP), were developed to estimate DTCD using only pressure and gas composition as input features. A dataset of 430 experimental measurements was compiled from seven literature sources, encompassing a broad range of pressures and binary/ternary NG mixtures. The ANN model achieved the best performance, with a testing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of 0.60 %, validated through five-fold cross-validation and violin-and-box plots. A transparent GEP-based correlation was also derived, offering a physically interpretable expression consistent with thermodynamic behavior. Trend analysis demonstrated the models’ abilities to capture expected physical patterns in DTCD behavior, and Williams’ plot analysis confirmed the applicability domain and the absence of influential outliers. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-based sensitivity analysis confirmed that CO2 concentration and system pressure are the most influential variables. The proposed models generalize effectively, require minimal input features, and provide a reliable and explainable alternative to conventional equation of state (EoS) methods for cryogenic CO2 capture system design.
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