Electricity Journal最新文献

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Renewable energy and India's demand growth: Benchmarking aggregate energy and time-of-day feasibility under technical and policy variability 可再生能源和印度需求增长：在技术和政策可变性下对总能源和每日时间可行性进行基准测试

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107502

Rohit Vijay, Rahul Tongia

India faces rising electricity demand, which the Indian government aims to meet disproportionally with cleaner resources, e.g., with the targeted 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030. However, whether this can balance demand growth or plateau coal remains uncertain. This study evaluates whether incremental RE can meet aggregate demand growth, examining time-of-day variations, asking if this can avoid higher fossil fuel use. We analyse incremental demand growth until 2030 and 2036 under diverse uncertainty, including different demand shapes and energy growth scenarios. We first assess annual energy adequacy, assuming storage shifts surplus energy into deficits, with uncertainty over varying CUFs for solar and wind, planned hydro, nuclear, and coal additions. We also examine the impact of solar-to-wind ratio, wind capacity limits, rooftop solar, and planned coal projects. Sensitivity analysis identifies the influence of demand growth, demand shape, CUFs, under-construction capacities, and solar-to-wind ratio on RE requirements and time-block surpluses/deficits. We then evaluate time-of-day demand and supply variations, analysing daily surpluses and deficits, including the role of under-construction hydro and nuclear in mitigating worst deficit days. Findings show that to meet 2030 demand growth with RE India would need 11.8 % more RE capacity than targeted. Demand growth and solar CUFs have the highest impact on RE requirements and surplus/deficit, with nonlinear effects from multiple variables. Over 100 days of renewable deficits and seasonal mismatches indicate challenges for storage, necessitating either significant RE overbuilding or greater thermal output, underscoring the need for accelerated RE deployment, grid flexibility, and demand-side measures.

印度面临着不断增长的电力需求，印度政府的目标是用更清洁的资源来不成比例地满足电力需求，例如，到2030年，印度的目标是非化石能源装机容量达到500吉瓦 。然而，这是否能平衡需求增长或让煤炭企稳仍不确定。本研究评估了增量可再生能源是否能够满足总需求增长，检查了一天中的时间变化，并询问这是否可以避免更高的化石燃料使用。我们分析了到2030年和2036年不同不确定性下的增量需求增长，包括不同的需求形态和能源增长情景。我们首先评估年度能源充分性，假设储能将过剩的能源转化为不足的能源，并考虑太阳能和风能、计划中的水电、核能和煤炭的不同cuf的不确定性。我们还研究了太阳能风能比、风能容量限制、屋顶太阳能和计划中的煤炭项目的影响。敏感性分析确定了需求增长、需求形态、cuf、在建能力和太阳能风能比对可再生能源需求和时间段盈余/赤字的影响。然后，我们评估每日需求和供应变化，分析每日盈余和赤字，包括在建水电和核电在缓解最严重赤字日中的作用。研究结果显示，为了满足2030年可再生能源的需求增长，印度将需要比目标高出11.8% %的可再生能源产能。需求增长和太阳能cuf对可再生能源需求和盈余/赤字的影响最大，具有多变量的非线性效应。超过100天的可再生能源短缺和季节性错配表明了储能的挑战，需要大量的可再生能源过度建设或更大的热输出，强调了加速可再生能源部署、电网灵活性和需求侧措施的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Flexible operation and fugitive methane emissions limit the potential of power plant carbon capture and storage” [Electr. J. 38 (2025) 107494] “灵活的操作和逸散的甲烷排放限制了发电厂碳捕获和储存的潜力”的勘误表。J. 38 (2025) 107494]

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107501

Thomas J.P. Hersbach , Michael D. Mastrandrea , Michael W. Wara

引用次数: 0

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035 加速印度室内空调效率：到2035年的电网、经济和政策影响

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107493

Nikit Abhyankar, Jose Dominguez, Nihar Shah, Neelima Jain, Amol Phadke

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

在收入增长、城市化和高温加剧的推动下，印度即将迎来空间降温需求的快速增长。2025年至2035年间，中国预计将新增1.3亿至1.5亿台空调。如果最低能源性能标准（MEPS）继续以每年2-3 %的历史速度提高，到2035年，仅室内空调就可以为峰值电力需求贡献超过180 GW的电力需求，接近全国预计总量的30% %。本研究评估了加速MEPS轨迹的影响，提出到2027年将1星阈值提高到ISEER 5.0，到2030年提高到ISEER 6.3，到2033年提高到ISEER 7.4。根据工程成本分析、库存周转模型和零售定价数据，我们发现这条路径可以减少峰值需求超过60 GW，每年节省118 太瓦时的电力，每年避免4900万二氧化碳的电力相关排放，避免7.5万亿卢比（约850亿美元）的电力系统投资，并在2035年之前产生0.7-2.3万亿卢比（约80 - 260亿美元）的净消费者储蓄。与负担能力问题相反，经验趋势表明，更高的效率并不会增加空调价格。这些结果突出了雄心勃勃的MEPS作为提高电网可靠性、减少排放和提高新兴经济体消费者福利的成本效益战略的价值。

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引用次数: 0

Wind power subsidies: Fueling long-term renewable share but slowing short-term progress? An empirical study of OECD countries 风能补贴：推动长期可再生能源份额，但减缓短期进展？经合组织国家的实证研究

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107497

Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada

This study examines the relationship between feed-in tariffs and the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix of 36 OECD member states, quantifying its strength using a range of panel data estimation techniques. The results reveal a statistically significant positive long-term association between feed-in tariffs for wind energy and the share of renewables in the electricity mix, contrasted by a negative association in the short term. Specifically, a one-cent increase in FiTs is associated with a 0.43–0.79 % rise in the share of renewables in the long term perspective. Additionally, a 1 % increase in per capita income corresponds to a 0.07–0.14 % increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix. However, in the short run, a one-cent increase in feed-in tariffs associates with a 0.23 % decrease in the share of renewables in the energy mix. Insights from seven expert interviews suggest that the counterintuitive short-term association is likely data-driven and may be explained by time lags required renewable electricity output to adjust to higher feed-in tariffs during expansion or boom phases of the business cycle.

本研究考察了36个经合组织成员国的上网电价与可再生能源在电力结构中的份额之间的关系，并使用一系列面板数据估计技术对其强度进行了量化。研究结果显示，风能上网电价与可再生能源在电力结构中的份额之间存在统计学上显著的长期正相关关系，而短期内则存在负相关关系。具体来说，从长远来看，上网电价每增加1美分，可再生能源的份额就会增加0.43-0.79 %。此外，人均收入每增加1 %，可再生能源在能源结构中的份额就会增加0.07-0.14 %。然而，在短期内，上网电价每增加1美分，可再生能源在能源结构中的份额就会下降0.23% %。来自7位专家访谈的见解表明，这种违反直觉的短期关联可能是由数据驱动的，可以用可再生能源发电在商业周期扩张或繁荣阶段适应更高的上网电价所需的时间滞后来解释。

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引用次数: 0

Does energy policy scholarship consider energy resilience? A bibliometric analysis and agenda for reform 能源政策奖学金考虑能源弹性吗？文献计量学分析和改革议程

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107496

Shardul Tiwari , Aritra Chakrabarty , Chelsea Schelly , Mostafa Sahraei-Ardakani , Jianli Chen , Gaby Ou

This study investigates the extent to which the concept of energy resilience is integrated into energy policy scholarship and proposes future research agenda to strengthen engagement with energy resilience in energy policy making. Our study shows that energy resilience is absent in energy policy scholarship, or framed the other way round, energy policy scholarship is absent in the discussion of energy resilience topic. We used bibliometric analysis of literature across Scopus and ProQuest databases and applied keyword co-occurrence mapping and journal-keyword analysis techniques to assess how themes of energy resilience intersect with “community,” “disaster,” and “policy.” Our analysis reveals that energy resilience is predominantly framed within technical, systemic and infrastructural contexts, with limited interdisciplinary attention to its socio-economic, governance, and equity dimensions. Notably, resilience-related terms are underrepresented in leading policy journals, suggesting a disconnect between energy resilience as a concept and energy policy scholarship. We argue that advancing energy resilience as a structured policy agenda requires a holistic framework that integrates technical reliability with community-level resilience, institutional capacity, and justice considerations. This research provides empirical evidence of the thematic silos in the energy policy literature and offers a roadmap for incorporating energy resilience more substantively into energy policy design, implementation, and evaluation.

本研究调查了能源弹性概念在多大程度上融入了能源政策学术，并提出了未来的研究议程，以加强能源弹性在能源政策制定中的参与。我们的研究表明，能源弹性在能源政策研究中缺失，或者反过来说，能源政策研究在能源弹性主题的讨论中缺失。我们对Scopus和ProQuest数据库中的文献进行了文献计量分析，并应用关键词共现映射和期刊关键词分析技术来评估能源弹性主题与“社区”、“灾难”和“政策”之间的交叉关系。我们的分析表明，能源弹性主要是在技术、系统和基础设施背景下构建的，对其社会经济、治理和公平维度的跨学科关注有限。值得注意的是，与弹性相关的术语在主要政策期刊中的代表性不足，这表明能源弹性作为一个概念与能源政策学术之间存在脱节。我们认为，将能源弹性作为一项结构性政策议程推进，需要一个整体框架，将技术可靠性与社区层面的弹性、机构能力和司法考虑相结合。本研究为能源政策文献中的主题筒仓提供了经验证据，并为将能源弹性更实质性地纳入能源政策的设计、实施和评估提供了路线图。

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引用次数: 0

Flexible operation and fugitive methane emissions limit the potential of power plant carbon capture and storage 灵活的操作和逸散的甲烷排放限制了发电厂碳捕获和储存的潜力

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107494

Thomas J.P. Hersbach , Michael D. Mastrandrea , Michael W. Wara

To fully decarbonize electricity generation, there is a need to meet electricity demand at times of low solar and wind availability. Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) that reduces power plant CO₂ emissions is one technology proposed for this purpose. However, CCS does not capture all power plant CO₂ emissions and does not address methane emissions that occur upstream of NGCC power plants. Furthermore, the cost of CCS is often not evaluated at capacity factors that represent likely use cases of NGCC power plants in low-carbon grids. Therefore, we evaluate the effect of uncaptured fugitive methane emissions on the climate benefits of CCS and the role of NGCC capacity factors on the economics of CCS. Accounting for time- and region-dependent methane leakage, we find that CCS reduces system-level greenhouse gas emissions between 21 % and 88 %, with remaining climate impacts being primarily due to uncaptured methane emissions. At average United States methane leakage rates of 2.95 %, CCS reduces system-level greenhouse gas emissions by 47–71 %. In addition, we estimate that CCS-related capital and operating expenditures only make CCS cost-effective at high capacity factors and in the presence of financial supports such as the California cap-and-trade program and United States 45Q tax credits. These findings highlight significant technical and economic challenges of using NGCC with CCS to achieve full grid decarbonization.

为了使发电完全脱碳，需要在太阳能和风能利用率低的时候满足电力需求。天然气联合循环（NGCC）发电与碳捕获与封存（CCS）技术可以减少发电厂的二氧化碳排放，这是为此目的提出的一项技术。然而，CCS并不能捕获所有发电厂的二氧化碳排放，也不能解决NGCC发电厂上游的甲烷排放问题。此外，CCS的成本通常没有根据容量因素进行评估，而容量因素代表了NGCC发电厂在低碳电网中的可能用例。因此，我们评估了未捕获的逸散性甲烷排放对CCS气候效益的影响，以及NGCC容量因子对CCS经济效益的影响。考虑到随时间和区域变化的甲烷泄漏，我们发现CCS减少了系统级温室气体排放21% %至88% %，其余的气候影响主要是由于未捕获的甲烷排放。美国平均甲烷泄漏率为2.95 %，CCS可将系统级温室气体排放量减少47-71 %。此外，我们估计CCS相关的资本和运营支出只有在高容量因素和存在财政支持（如加州限额与交易计划和美国45Q税收抵免）的情况下才能使CCS具有成本效益。这些发现突出了将NGCC与CCS结合使用以实现电网完全脱碳的重大技术和经济挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the electric vulnerability index: A metric for targeting energy storage resilience solutions 绘制电力脆弱性指数：针对储能弹性解决方案的度量

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107498

Jessica Kerby, Lee Miller, Bethel Tarekegne

Uninterrupted access to electricity is critical to the safety and security of American households. More frequent and extreme emergency events increase outages across the country, disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities that experience the most frequent and longest outages, are most sensitive to the loss of electric power, and have the least capacity to adapt to these conditions. This study devises a metric, the Electric Vulnerability Index (EVI), that captures relative exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability to electric outages, and validates this metric against the 2021 Winter Storm Uri in Texas. Though not ubiquitous, similar trends were observed between adjacent areas with higher EVI and those with higher outage rates from this storm. EVI is mapped across the continental United States and offered as a viable approach to quantify a population’s vulnerability to electric outages to aid policymakers, advocates, and energy system stakeholders in the targeted deployment of resilience solutions, such as energy storage, to communities most in need.

不间断的电力供应对美国家庭的安全至关重要。更频繁和极端的紧急事件增加了全国各地的停电，对经历最频繁和最长停电的脆弱社区的影响不成比例，对电力损失最敏感，适应这些条件的能力最低。本研究设计了一个指标，即电力脆弱性指数（EVI），该指标捕捉了对电力中断的相对暴露度、敏感性和适应性，并通过2021年德克萨斯州冬季风暴Uri验证了该指标。虽然不是无处不在，但在EVI较高的邻近地区和风暴造成的停电率较高的地区之间观察到类似的趋势。EVI在整个美国大陆进行测绘，并作为一种可行的方法来量化人口对电力中断的脆弱性，以帮助政策制定者、倡导者和能源系统利益相关者有针对性地向最需要的社区部署弹性解决方案，如储能。

引用次数: 0

The infrastructure cost for depot charging of battery electric trucks 纯电动卡车车场充电的基础设施成本

Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107490

Guihua Wang, Marshall R. Miller, Lewis M. Fulton

Electric vehicle (EV) depot charging is critical for truck fleet operators to convert their conventional vehicles to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This study uses California as the context and considers two example fleets: a fleet of medium-duty delivery trucks and a fleet of heavy-duty short-haul trucks. Assuming trucks are charged at a depot by direct current (DC) fast chargers (50 kW, 150 kW, or 350 kW) or high-power level 2 chargers, we estimate charging infrastructure cost as a function of the EV fleet size. Results indicate that per-vehicle infrastructure cost would decrease substantially as the fleet size increases, though infrastructure cost is very sensitive to charger utilization rates. The higher the charger utilization, the lower the infrastructure cost would be, as the depot would need fewer chargers installed. Therefore, one cost reduction strategy is to improve daily utilization rates to reduce the charger count demand and thus reduce the infrastructure cost.

电动汽车（EV）车场充电对于卡车车队运营商将其传统车辆转换为零排放车辆（zev）至关重要。本研究以加利福尼亚州为背景，并考虑了两个示例车队：中型运输卡车车队和重型短途卡车车队。假设卡车在仓库通过直流（DC）快速充电器（50 kW、150 kW或350 kW）或大功率2级充电器充电，我们估计充电基础设施成本是电动汽车车队规模的函数。结果表明，随着车队规模的增加，每辆车的基础设施成本将大幅下降，尽管基础设施成本对充电器利用率非常敏感。充电器利用率越高，基础设施成本就越低，因为电池厂需要安装的充电器越少。因此，降低成本的策略之一是提高日常利用率，以减少充电器数量需求，从而降低基础设施成本。

引用次数: 0

The impact of power outages on Ecuadorian science 停电对厄瓜多尔科学的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107488

Lenin Ramírez-Cando, Santiago Ballaz

The authors of this perspective paper provide their personal opinions about the effects of prolonged power outages on Ecuadorian scientific research and academy, and how the government and foreign investors could improve the situation by managing renewable energy in one of the nations with the most plentiful natural resources in the world.

本文作者就长期停电对厄瓜多科学研究与学术的影响，以及政府与外国投资者如何透过管理可再生能源，改善厄瓜多的状况，提供个人看法。

引用次数: 0

Narrowing the urban-rural electricity gap in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does equal distribution of political power matter? 缩小撒哈拉以南非洲的城乡电力差距：政治权力的平等分配重要吗？

Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2025.107485

Issa Dianda , Djakaria Tou , Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba

This paper examines how the distribution of political power affects rural electrification and the urban-rural electricity access gap in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using panel data for 45 countries from 2000 to 2022, we apply instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to capture heterogeneous effects across the distribution of electricity outcomes. Results show that more equitable political power—across rural-urban lines, gender, socioeconomic status and social groups—significantly improves rural electrification and reduces electricity inequality. These findings are robust to alternative estimation techniques and highlight the role of political inclusion in promoting energy equity. They underscore the need for institutional reforms to ensure balanced representation in energy policymaking.

本文研究了政治权力分配如何影响撒哈拉以南非洲的农村电气化和城乡电力获取差距。利用2000年至2022年45个国家的面板数据，我们应用工具变量分位数回归（IVQR）来捕捉电力结果分布中的异质效应。结果表明，在城乡线路、性别、社会经济地位和社会群体之间，更公平的政治权力显著改善了农村电气化，减少了电力不平等。这些发现对于替代估算技术是稳健的，并突出了政治包容在促进能源公平中的作用。它们强调需要进行体制改革，以确保能源决策中的均衡代表权。

引用次数: 0

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