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True cost of electric service: What reliability metrics alone fail to communicate 电力服务的真实成本:仅靠可靠性指标无法传达的信息
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107386
Robert A. García Cooper, Marcel Castro Sitiriche , Agustín Irizarry Rivera , Fabio Andrade Rengifo

Valuing electric power, particularly its loss within the residential sector, has historically been a great challenge that many researchers have undertaken without reaching a consensus. Electric power can be troublesome to appraise because consumption is not the customer’s main goal, but rather a means to achieve a desired good or service that often has unquantifiable personal value. This paper proposes a market-based household production method that quantifies the customer electric service interruption costs in the residential sector. Because an individual’s personal time is necessary to replace services owing to the lack of electric power, we propose a method that estimates the weighted market cost of a person’s time in accordance with their occupation to better calculate customer outage costs. We also present a macroeconomic production method to estimate losses in the residential sector. Finally, we propose a method for calculating the true costs of electric services by factoring the outage costs with the electrical utility rate to be analyzed using reliability metrics. The proposed approach facilitates a closer estimation of the low-bound true costs of utility-supplied electrical services for consumers who have not taken mitigation measures, serving as a warning for energy regulators to impose corrective actions or appropriate penalties on unreliable utilities and/or as an indicator for customers to invest in alternative energy sources.

对电力进行估价,尤其是对居民用电的损耗进行估价,历来都是一项巨大的挑战,许多研究人员都对此进行过研究,但都没有达成共识。由于电力消费不是用户的主要目标,而是实现理想商品或服务的一种手段,而这种商品或服务往往具有无法量化的个人价值,因此电力的评估会很麻烦。本文提出了一种基于市场的家庭生产方法,该方法可量化居民用户的电力服务中断成本。由于个人的个人时间是因电力不足而替代服务所必需的,因此我们提出了一种根据个人职业估算个人时间的加权市场成本的方法,以更好地计算客户中断成本。我们还提出了一种宏观经济生产方法,用于估算住宅部门的损失。最后,我们提出了一种计算电力服务真实成本的方法,将停电成本与电力公司费率相联系,利用可靠性指标进行分析。所提出的方法有助于更准确地估算出未采取缓解措施的消费者在电力公司提供的电力服务中的低限真实成本,为能源监管机构提供警示,以便对不可靠的电力公司采取纠正措施或进行适当处罚,以及/或作为客户投资替代能源的指标。
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引用次数: 0
Toward a physical Dodge City high voltage direct current (HVDC) electricity hub 建立道奇市高压直流 (HVDC) 电力枢纽站
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107384
Jeff D. Makholm

A physical Dodge City high voltage direct current (HVDC) electricity commodity hub would foster the kind of risk transfer that would invite the full participation of the financial industry in an interstate transmission system essential to the speedy development of renewable electricity and complementary storage technologies. Obstacles lie in the way of such a vision, however. Chief among them, paradoxically, is the administrative system that has evolved since the late 1990 s to promote regional electricity markets. That system abstracts from investment risk and the nation’s uneven geography of renewable resources. It lodges a kind of monopoly planning and scheduling power in a small group of bureaucratic centralized system operators that mimics a command economy in their own distinct regions, not the kind of market economy that has traditionally driven investment in US interstate energy infrastructure. And yet, in dealing with the vexing transmission constraints faced by the renewable generating sector (the “queue”), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) continues to pursue ever greater authority for those regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Such FERC action regarding its RTOs in 2022–23 represents a highly evident case of path dependency—a problem—that state or federal policy makers wishing to speed the entry of large-scale renewable generation, and complementary storage technologies, will have find a way either to confront directly or to work around.

道奇市高压直流(HVDC)电力商品实体枢纽将促进风险转移,从而吸引金融业全面参与州际输电系统,这对快速发展可再生能源电力和辅助存储技术至关重要。然而,实现这一愿景的道路上障碍重重。矛盾的是,其中最主要的障碍是自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来为促进区域电力市场发展而形成的行政体系。这一体系将投资风险和全国可再生资源不均衡的地理位置抽象化。它将一种垄断性的规划和调度权赋予了一小部分官僚主义的中央系统运营商,在各自不同的地区模仿指令性经济,而不是传统上推动美国州际能源基础设施投资的那种市场经济。然而,联邦能源管理委员会(FERC)在处理可再生能源发电部门("队列")所面临的令人头疼的输电限制时,却继续为这些区域输电组织(RTO)争取更大的权力。联邦能源管理委员会在 2022-23 年期间对其区域输电组织采取的此类行动是一个非常明显的路径依赖案例--州或联邦政策制定者希望加快大规模可再生能源发电和补充性储能技术的进入,就必须找到一种方法来直接面对或绕过这一问题。
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引用次数: 0
More transmission or more storage? Decarbonization in the context of hydro-rich Northeastern North America 更多输电还是更多储电?水力资源丰富的北美东北部地区的去碳化问题
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107375
Aïssatou Ba , Justin Caron , Pierre-Olivier Pineau

Decarbonizing electric systems through the integration of large amounts of intermittent renewable energy complicates the balancing of demand and supply, increasing the value of storage. With the rapid expansion of short-term storage options such as batteries, flexible resources such as existing hydroelectric reservoir storage are often overlooked. Using a capacity expansion and dispatch model of the Northeastern North American power system, we draw lessons from the interconnection potential of Quebec’s large existing hydropower capacities. We find that reservoir-transmission coupling significantly decreases the cost of decarbonization, even when short-term storage costs are low, because it is used for both daily and seasonal balancing. Conversely, the value of short-term storage is compromised by the availability of reservoir-transmission coupling, even assuming high investment costs for transmission. We also describe the regional distribution of costs and benefits of storage and transmission and discuss implications for regional cooperation.

通过整合大量间歇性可再生能源来实现电力系统的去碳化,使供需平衡变得更加复杂,从而提高了储能的价值。随着电池等短期储能方案的迅速推广,现有水电站储能等灵活资源往往被忽视。利用北美东北部电力系统的容量扩展和调度模型,我们从魁北克现有大型水电容量的互联潜力中汲取了经验教训。我们发现,即使短期储能成本较低,水库-输电耦合也能显著降低去碳化成本,因为它既可用于日常平衡,也可用于季节平衡。相反,即使假设输电投资成本较高,短期储能的价值也会因水库-输电耦合的可用性而受到影响。我们还描述了储能和输电成本与收益的区域分布,并讨论了对区域合作的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Energy poverty and social justice in Mexico: The rights of electricity consumers 墨西哥的能源贫困与社会公正:电力消费者的权利
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107372
Miguel Ángel Marmolejo Cervantes, Lisa Reilly Solís

This article analyzes energy poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean and the importance of energy efficiency to address this issue. The paper also touches upon energy subsidies in Mexico and their negative environmental and social consequences. Then, the article studies the potentially detrimental billing practices of Mexico’s state electricity company, which are provoked by the enterprise’s growing past-due portfolio and losses, and the possible infringement of electricity consumers’ rights. The authors propose three courses of action for consumers to protest the company's possibly perjudicial billing. Finally, the authors suggest that a distributed electricity system in Mexico could combat energy poverty and strengthen electricity users’ rights.

本文分析了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的能源贫困问题以及提高能效对解决这一问题的重要性。文章还谈到了墨西哥的能源补贴及其对环境和社会的负面影响。然后,文章研究了墨西哥国营电力公司潜在的有害计费行为,这些行为是由该企业不断增长的逾期欠费组合和损失以及可能侵犯电力消费者权利所引起的。作者建议消费者采取三种行动来抗议该公司可能存在的不当收费行为。最后,作者建议在墨西哥建立分布式电力系统,以消除能源贫困并加强电力用户的权利。
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引用次数: 0
Putin’s power play: Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s electric power infrastructure violate international law 普京的权力游戏俄罗斯袭击乌克兰电力基础设施违反国际法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107371
Julia E. Sullivan , Dmitriy Kamensky

International humanitarian law is a branch of public international law that seeks to moderate the conduct of wars to protect those who are not taking part in the hostilities. Under international humanitarian law, belligerents may not intentionally target civilians or installations that are indispensable to the survival of the civilian population. While collateral harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure may occur, international humanitarian law prohibits attacks that may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated. In practice, these principles have not always been honored or enforced. State and non-state actors have deliberately targeted civilians and/or disregarded civilian impacts, often for the purpose of pressuring political leaders to capitulate. The increasing occurrence and severity of harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure in modern conflicts calls into question the continuing relevance of what were once viewed as fundamental protections. In this paper, we present a case study involving Russia’s 2022–23 attacks on Ukraine’s electric power infrastructure, which left millions of civilians without heat, water, or other basic services for extended periods in harsh winter conditions. Considering the scope, scale, and long-term impacts of these attacks, we conclude that Russia violated international law. We also suggest that a new international protocol may be necessary in order to more effectively deter and punish attacks on civilian infrastructure in future armed conflicts and military occupations.

国际人道主义法是国际公法的一个分支,旨在缓和战争行为,保护未参与敌对行动的人。根据国际人道主义法,交战方不得故意以平民或平民生存不可或缺的设施为目标。虽然可能会对平民和民用基础设施造成附带损害,但国际人道主义法禁止可能附带造成平民生命损失、平民受伤、民用物体受损,或与预期的具体和直接军事利益相比损害过分的攻击。在实践中,这些原则并不总是得到遵守或执行。国家和非国家行为者蓄意以平民为目标和/或无视平民受到的影响,其目的往往是迫使政治领导人屈服。在现代冲突中,对平民和民用基础设施造成的伤害越来越多,也越来越严重,这让人怀疑曾经被视为基本保护措施的这些原则是否仍然适用。在本文中,我们提出了一个案例研究,涉及俄罗斯 2022-23 年对乌克兰电力基础设施的袭击,导致数百万平民在严冬条件下长时间没有暖气、水或其他基本服务。考虑到这些袭击的范围、规模和长期影响,我们认为俄罗斯违反了国际法。我们还建议,可能有必要制定一项新的国际议定书,以便在未来的武装冲突和军事占领中更有效地阻止和惩罚对民用基础设施的袭击。
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引用次数: 0
Reviewing the overcapacity claim: Insights from Kenya’s electricity sector 审查产能过剩说法:肯尼亚电力部门的启示
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107374
Lewis Waswa , Martin Kitetu , Mark Thurber , Murefu Barasa , Lily Odarno , Steve Brick

Typical approaches to assessing excess generation capacity in African electricity systems have considered the nameplate capacities of existing generation plants, the planned generation capacity, and peak load. However, the omission of variables such as the condition of transmission and distribution infrastructure, the age of existing power plants, and whether generation capacity is intermittent (as in the case of wind or solar) or subject to climate impacts (as in the case of hydropower) has caused such assessments to be misleading. This can result in misguided public policy and power procurement processes that are poorly matched to the needs of evolving power systems. In this paper, we analyze the case of Kenya to show how power system planning must consider these key factors that are often ignored. Far from having excess capacity as has been repeatedly reported, the Kenyan grid has limited capacity to take up additional load at present.

评估非洲电力系统过剩发电能力的典型方法考虑了现有发电厂的铭牌发电能力、计划发电能力和高峰负荷。然而,由于忽略了一些变量,如输配电基础设施的状况、现有发电厂的使用年限,以及发电能力是否是间歇性的(如风能或太阳能)或是否受气候影响(如水电)等,导致此类评估具有误导性。这可能导致公共政策和电力采购过程受到误导,无法很好地满足不断发展的电力系统的需求。在本文中,我们分析了肯尼亚的案例,以说明电力系统规划必须如何考虑这些经常被忽视的关键因素。肯尼亚的电网远非如多次报道的那样存在过剩容量,而是目前承担额外负荷的能力有限。
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引用次数: 0
Technology readiness level and round trip efficiency of large-scale advanced compressed air energy storage 大规模先进压缩空气储能的技术就绪程度和往返效率
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107369
Alberto Boretti

The British Royal Society has recently recognized that achieving net zero emissions requires a substantial amount of energy storage in the United Kingdom by 2050, totaling about 200 TWh, to address the intermittent nature of wind and solar energy production, spanning from seconds to seasonal variations. While their assessment acknowledges that hydrogen should play a predominant role in this storage, it also highlights exceptionally high technology readiness level (TRL) and round-trip efficiency that is attributed to large-scale advanced compressed air energy storage (ACAES), which is viewed as a formidable contender. However, in this discussion, we argue that these values may be somewhat exaggerated. While ACAES certainly offers potential advantages, it also confronts a multitude of challenges, particularly when it comes to extensive, large-scale implementation.

英国皇家学会最近认识到,要实现净零排放,到 2050 年,英国需要大量的能源存储,总计约 200 太瓦时,以解决风能和太阳能生产的间歇性问题,从几秒到季节性变化不等。虽然他们的评估承认氢气应在这种储能中发挥主导作用,但也强调了大规模先进压缩空气储能(ACAES)具有极高的技术就绪水平(TRL)和往返效率,被视为一个强大的竞争者。然而,在本次讨论中,我们认为这些数值可能有些夸大。虽然 ACAES 确实具有潜在优势,但它也面临着诸多挑战,尤其是在广泛、大规模实施方面。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating factors to promote energy: Socio-political barriers to renewable energy sector in India 调查促进能源发展的因素:印度可再生能源行业的社会政治障碍
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107366
Rafael Clemente Brito Cedeno, Jiuchang Wei

The urgent shift towards renewable energy sources in response to climate change highlights the necessity of thoroughly examining the obstacles that impede the progress of cleaner energy efforts. This study examines the socio-political barriers that hinder the expansion of the renewable energy industry in India, a nation facing the dual challenges of rapid economic growth and environmental preservation. Amidst increasing global apprehensions regarding the environment, this study employs a comprehensive analysis encompassing ANOVA, correlation, and regression to identify crucial aspects influencing the advancement of renewable energy in India. While previous studies have recognized financial limitations such as brief loan durations and significant capital expenses as substantial obstacles, our research explores the intricate interaction of several elements in greater detail. The key findings reveal substantial variations across the groups examined, providing insight into the differing degrees of awareness and concern surrounding renewable energy. Remarkably, limited connections arise between crucial factors such as awareness of renewable energy, care for the environment, and government energy policy. The regression analysis highlights the insufficiency of the variable "Development of renewable energy in India" in accurately predicting the dependent variable, thus indicating the presence of other relevant factors. India's present renewable energy capacity is only 18%, with hydro energy contributing 14%. Our research highlights the need for specific actions to address this issue. The study continues by recommending incorporating scholarly knowledge into policy development to encourage investor attraction and promote the widespread acceptance of cleaner and renewable energy solutions at both national and international levels. This research provides a detailed and insightful viewpoint to the ongoing discussion, highlighting the crucial influence of socio-political factors in determining the future direction of India's renewable energy sector.

为应对气候变化,印度急需向可再生能源转变,这凸显了深入研究阻碍清洁能源发展的障碍的必要性。印度面临着经济快速增长和环境保护的双重挑战,本研究探讨了阻碍印度可再生能源产业发展的社会政治障碍。在全球对环境的担忧与日俱增的情况下,本研究采用了方差分析、相关分析和回归分析等综合分析方法,以确定影响印度可再生能源发展的关键因素。以往的研究认为,贷款期限短、资本支出大等财务限制是主要障碍,而我们的研究则更详细地探讨了几个因素之间错综复杂的相互作用。主要研究结果表明,受访群体之间存在巨大差异,这让我们深入了解了人们对可再生能源的不同认识和关注程度。值得注意的是,对可再生能源的认识、对环境的关注以及政府的能源政策等关键因素之间的联系非常有限。回归分析显示,变量 "印度可再生能源的发展 "不足以准确预测因变量,这表明还存在其他相关因素。印度目前的可再生能源容量仅占 18%,其中水能占 14%。我们的研究强调了采取具体行动解决这一问题的必要性。研究还建议将学术知识纳入政策制定中,以鼓励吸引投资者,并在国家和国际层面上促进更清洁的可再生能源解决方案的广泛接受。本研究为正在进行的讨论提供了详细而深刻的观点,强调了社会政治因素在决定印度可再生能源行业未来发展方向方面的重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
House and socio-demographic features vs. electricity consumption time series in main heating mode classification 主要取暖方式分类中的房屋和社会人口特征与耗电量时间序列对比
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107373
Hannu Huuki , Enni Ruokamo , Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen , Nadezda Belonogova , Araavind Sridhar , Samuli Honkapuro

Demand-side flexibility is crucial for integrating variable renewable energy sources cost-effectively. Home heating systems determine the potential for flexibility in individual households. We examine different approaches to classify heating systems in Finland and find that using hourly electricity consumption time series is more effective than house and socio-demographic features. Classification based on electricity consumption data achieves higher precision (0.62) and recall (0.64) than house and socio-demographic features (0.41 and 0.43, respectively). Therefore, the availability of electricity consumption time series data should be considered from a competition policy perspective due to its value in estimating flexibility potential.

需求方的灵活性对于以具有成本效益的方式整合可变可再生能源至关重要。家庭供暖系统决定了每个家庭的灵活性潜力。我们研究了芬兰供暖系统分类的不同方法,发现使用每小时耗电量时间序列比使用房屋和社会人口特征更有效。与房屋和社会人口特征(分别为 0.41 和 0.43)相比,基于用电量数据的分类精确度(0.62)和召回率(0.64)更高。因此,从竞争政策的角度来看,应考虑用电量时间序列数据的可用性,因为它在估算灵活性潜力方面具有重要价值。
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引用次数: 0
A Transformer based approach to electricity load forecasting 基于变压器的电力负荷预测方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2024.107370
Jun Wei Chan , Chai Kiat Yeo

In natural language processing (NLP), transformer based models have surpassed recurrent neural networks (RNN) as state of the art, being introduced specifically to address the limitations of RNNs originating from its sequential nature. As a similar sequence modeling problem, transformer methods can be readily adapted for deep learning time series prediction. This paper proposes a sparse transformer based approach for electricity load prediction. The layers of a transformer addresses the shortcomings of RNNs and CNNs by applying the attention mechanism on the entire time series, allowing any data point in the input to influence any location in the output of the layer. This allows transformers to incorporate information from the entire sequence in a single layer. Attention computations can also be parallelized. Thus, transformers can achieve faster speeds, or trade this speed for more layers and increased complexity. In experiments on public datasets, the sparse transformer attained comparable accuracy to an RNN-based SOTA method (Liu et al., 2022) while being up to 5× faster during inference. Moreover, the proposed model is general enough to forecast the load from individual households to city levels as shown in the extensive experiments conducted.

在自然语言处理(NLP)领域,基于变换器的模型已经超越了递归神经网络(RNN),成为最先进的技术。作为一个类似的序列建模问题,变换器方法可以很容易地应用于深度学习时间序列预测。本文提出了一种基于稀疏变换器的电力负荷预测方法。变换器的各层解决了 RNN 和 CNN 的缺点,将注意力机制应用于整个时间序列,允许输入中的任何数据点影响层输出中的任何位置。这使得变换器可以在单层中纳入整个序列的信息。注意力计算也可以并行化。因此,变换器可以实现更快的速度,也可以用更多的层数和更高的复杂度来换取更快的速度。在对公共数据集的实验中,稀疏变换器的准确度与基于 RNN 的 SOTA 方法(Liu 等人,2022 年)相当,而推理速度则快达 5 倍。此外,正如所进行的大量实验所显示的那样,所提出的模型具有足够的通用性,可以预测从单个家庭到城市级别的负荷。
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引用次数: 0
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Electricity Journal
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