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Impact of Discretization Units on the Modelling Efficiency of Currency Exchange Rate in Binary Representation 二元表示中离散化单元对货币汇率建模效率的影响
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0600
Krzysztof Piasecki, M. Stasiak
Exchange rate course trajectory can be visualised in a binary representation. Binarization algorithm involves transformation of a course represented by tic data into a respective binary string. Each exchange rate increase by one discretization unit is assigned a binary value 1, and a respective decrease is assigned a 0. Properties and character of the exchange rate course in binary representation, that is, for example, influence of random fluctuations (noise) or relationship between current changes and historical data, are dependent on the appointed discretization unit. In the article a statistical analysis of an exchange rate trajectory for AUD/NZD currency pair in binary representation with different discretization units is presented. The analysis was performed in order to verify possible application of binary representation to create prediction systems based on binary representation state model (BRSM). Data used in performed research consisted of tick data for AUD/NZD from a five-year time period 2012–2017.
汇率过程轨迹可以用二进制表示可视化。二值化算法涉及将tic数据表示的过程转换为相应的二进制字符串。每增加一个离散化单位的汇率被赋以二进制值1,相应的汇率下降被赋以0。二进制表示的汇率过程的性质和特征,例如随机波动(噪声)的影响或当前变化与历史数据之间的关系,取决于指定的离散化单元。本文对澳元/纽元二元货币对的汇率轨迹进行了统计分析。分析是为了验证二进制表示在基于二进制表示状态模型(BRSM)的预测系统中的可能应用。研究中使用的数据包括2012-2017年5年期间澳元/纽元的波动数据。
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引用次数: 0
The birth of official statistics in Poland 波兰官方统计的诞生
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0954
C. Domański
The birth of the Polish official statistics, commonly associated with the establishment of Statistics Poland on 13 July 1918, was possible thanks to the ideas and grassroots work of various scholars, including statisticians, who thus demonstrated their faithfulness to the resolutions of the Four-Year Sejm (Parliament) and the Constitution of 3 May 1791. Statisticians from Kraków, who established Poland’s first statistical society (the Polish Statistical Society) and authored a study entitled Statistics of Poland, Kraków (1915), edited by Adam Krzyżanowski and Kazimierz Kumaniecki, deserve a special recognition in this paper. In the two consecutive years, 1916 and 1917, Kraków saw the publication of two important works, namely Geographical and Statistical Atlas of Poland, Kraków (1916), edited by Eugeniusz Romer and Ignacy Weinfeld, and the Yearbook of Poland. Statistical Tables, Kraków (1917). But scientists from other parts of Poland contributed to the process of laying the foundations for the Polish official statistics as well. Statisticians from Warsaw compiled three volumes of Statistical Yearbooks of the Kingdom of Poland edited by Władysław Grabski, and the work entitled Statistical Yearbook of the Kingdom of Poland and other Polish lands. The Year 1915 under the editorship of Edward Strasburger was published in 1916 in Sankt Petersburg. Around the same period, Polish scientists associated with the University of Lviv expanded the scope of their scientific activity. After regaining independence, the process of establishing the system of official statistics in Poland, at that time carried out already within the framework of Statistic Poland, continued developing dynamically thanks to the scientific input of several dozen Polish statisticians.
波兰官方统计的诞生通常与1918年7月13日波兰统计局的成立有关,这要归功于包括统计学家在内的各种学者的想法和基层工作,他们因此表明了他们对四年Sejm(议会)决议和1791年5月3日宪法的忠诚。来自Kraków的统计学家建立了波兰第一个统计学会(波兰统计学会),并撰写了由Adam Krzyżanowski和Kazimierz Kumaniecki编辑的题为《波兰统计》Kraków(1915)的研究,值得在本文中特别表彰。在1916年和1917年连续两年,Kraków出版了两本重要著作,即由Eugeniusz Romer和Ignacy Weinfeld编辑的《波兰地理和统计地图集》Kraków(1916)和《波兰年鉴》。统计表,Kraków(1917)。但来自波兰其他地区的科学家也为波兰官方统计奠定了基础。华沙的统计学家编纂了由Władysław Grabski编辑的三卷《波兰王国统计年鉴》和题为《波兰王国和其他波兰土地统计年鉴》的著作。《1915年》由爱德华·斯特拉斯堡编辑,于1916年在圣彼得堡出版。大约在同一时期,与利沃夫大学合作的波兰科学家扩大了他们科学活动的范围。波兰恢复独立后,建立官方统计系统的进程,当时已经在波兰统计局的框架内进行,由于几十名波兰统计学家的科学投入,继续蓬勃发展。
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引用次数: 0
Labour Market Areas in Poland 波兰的劳动力市场区域
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0544
Maciej Ryczkowski, Paweł Stopiński
The aim of the article is to delineate Labour Market Areas (LMAs) in Poland with the use of the European version of the Travel to Work Areas (EU-TTWA) methodology that was developed under Eurostat auspices. We received over 300 areas that consist of LAU-2 units (gminas) – the smallest administrative regions in Poland. We discuss Poland-specific results and problems. We compare numbers of LMAs in countries with EU-TTWA-delineated LMAs in relation to population density, total population and area. We propose the taxonomic rank method to select the parameter values for the EU-TTWA algorithm. LMAs may deliver useful spatial information, although one needs to account for their heterogeneity.
本文的目的是通过使用欧洲版本的工作区域旅行(EU-TTWA)方法来划定波兰的劳动力市场区域(LMAs),该方法是在欧盟统计局主持下开发的。我们收到了300多个由波兰最小的行政区域- -第2法律单位(gminas)组成的地区。我们讨论波兰特有的结果和问题。我们比较了欧盟ttwa划定的lma国家的lma数量与人口密度、总人口和面积的关系。针对EU-TTWA算法的参数选择问题,提出了分类排序法。lma可以提供有用的空间信息,尽管需要考虑到它们的异质性。
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引用次数: 1
A Study of Disability Across Districts of the Province of Wielkopolska Using Small Area Estimation Methods 基于小面积估算方法的大波兰省各区残疾状况研究
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0604
Tomasz Klimanek, M. Szymkowiak, Tomasz Józefowski
Surveys and censuses conducted by the Central Statistical Office in Poland are the main sources of information about disability for official statistics. Because sample sizes for relevant cross-classification domains are too small to employ classical estimation methods, results are usually published at a relatively high level of aggregation (at country or province level) or for very broadly defined domains.To meet the growing demand for detailed information about disability, the authors present an attempt of applying the methodology of small area estimation to estimate the percentage of disabled people, in the legal and biological sense, across districts (NUTS 4/LAU 1 units) of the province of Wielkopolska crossclassified by the level of education. This methodological exercise is based on data from the 2011 census and employs selected techniques of indirect estimation.Estimates obtained in the study provide an indication of the spatial variation of disability in the target domains with greater precision. It is worth noting that this level of aggregation has not been considered for purposes of official statistical outputs because of unacceptably high estimation errors of the direct estimator.
波兰中央统计局进行的调查和人口普查是官方统计中关于残疾的主要资料来源。由于相关交叉分类领域的样本量太小,无法使用经典的估计方法,结果通常在相对较高的聚集水平(在国家或省一级)或非常广泛定义的领域发布。为了满足日益增长的对残疾详细资料的需求,作者提出了一项尝试,采用小区域估计方法,在法律和生物学意义上估计大波兰省各区(NUTS 4/LAU 1单位)按教育水平交叉分类的残疾人百分比。这一方法是基于2011年人口普查的数据,并采用了一些间接估计的技术。研究中获得的估计值以更高的精度表明了目标领域中残疾的空间变化。值得注意的是,由于直接估计器的估计误差高得令人无法接受,因此官方统计产出的目的没有考虑到这种汇总水平。
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引用次数: 0
International Market Segmentation with the Use of CMS Method and Cluster Analysis 利用CMS方法和聚类分析进行国际市场细分
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0609
M. Salamaga
The segmentation of foreign markets is currently treated as an important element of the strategy of operations of enterprises that participate in international exchange of goods and services. This paper fits squarely into a current trend in research on the matter. The article presents the possibility of combining the model of Constant Market Share developed by Leamer, Stern (1970) with cluster analysis. The CMS method allows for a detailed assessment of the sources of changes occurring in the export of compared countries, and in particular its results allow for answering the following question: To what extent may changes in export be explained by the economic situation in the world trade of individual clusters of commodities and to what extent do they result from the competitiveness of these countries? The application of the multivariate statistical methods for the designated effects will allow for the identification of the clusters of countries of the most similar position in the spatial and commodity arrangement, including countries of similar competitiveness of trade. This approach has been applied to the segmentation of EU countries’ markets.
国外市场的细分目前被视为参与国际货物和服务交换的企业经营战略的一个重要组成部分。这篇论文完全符合目前对这一问题的研究趋势。本文提出了将Leamer, Stern(1970)的恒定市场份额模型与聚类分析相结合的可能性。CMS方法允许对比较国家出口变化的来源进行详细评估,特别是其结果允许回答以下问题:出口变化在多大程度上可以用个别商品集群的世界贸易经济状况来解释,以及它们在多大程度上由这些国家的竞争力造成?对指定效果应用多元统计方法,将有助于确定在空间和商品安排中地位最相似的国家群,包括具有类似贸易竞争力的国家。这种方法已被应用于欧盟国家市场的细分。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Stationary Gale Economy with Limited Technology and Multilane Turnpike. ”Weak”, ”Strong” and ”Very Strong” Turnpike Theorem 有限技术条件下的非平稳大风经济与多车道收费公路“弱”、“强”和“非常强”收费公路定理
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0595
E. Panek
In the author’s previous papers (2016a, 2016b) the generalized concept of turnpike in the stationary Gale’s economy has been proposed – a single turnpike (single von Neumann’s ray) has been replaced with a compact bundle of turnpikes and it has been called multilane turnpike. It has been proven that the ”weak” turnpike theorem holds in (a) stationary Gale’s economy with fixed (unchangeable in time) production technology and in (b) non-stationary Gale’s economy with technology convergent with time to a limit technology. In this article, in reference to the aforementioned papers, alongside with the ”weak” turnpike theorem, the proof of the ”strong” and ”very strong” turnpike theorem has been presented for the partially modified assumptions in a non-stationary economy with multilane turnpike and with technology convergent with time to a limit technology.
在作者之前的论文(2016a, 2016b)中,已经提出了固定Gale经济中收费公路的广义概念-单一收费公路(单一冯诺伊曼射线)已被紧凑的收费公路束所取代,并被称为多车道收费公路。证明了“弱”收费公路定理在(a)生产技术固定(时间不变)的平稳Gale经济和(b)技术随时间收敛到极限技术的非平稳Gale经济中成立。本文在参考上述文献的基础上,结合“弱”收费公路定理,对具有多车道收费公路和技术随时间收敛到极限技术的非平稳经济中部分修正的假设,给出了“强”和“很强”收费公路定理的证明。
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引用次数: 1
The use of the Hurst exponent to investigate the quality of forecasting methods of ultra-high-frequency data of exchange rates 利用赫斯特指数研究超高频汇率数据预测方法的质量
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0536
Robert Szóstakowski
Over the last century a variety of methods have been used for forecasting financial time data series with different results. This article explains why most of them failed to provide reasonable results based on fractal theory using one day tick data series from the foreign exchange market. Forecasting AMAPE errors and forecasting accuracy ratios were calculated for statistical and machine learning methods for currency time series which were divided into sub-segments according to Hurst ratio. This research proves that the forecasting error decreases and the forecasting accuracy increases for all of the forecasting methods when the Hurt ratio increases. The approach which was used in the article can be successfully applied to time series forecasting by indicating periods with the optimal values of the Hurst exponent.
在过去的一个世纪里,各种各样的方法被用来预测金融时间数据序列,结果各不相同。本文利用外汇市场的单日波动数据序列,解释了大多数基于分形理论的分析未能给出合理结果的原因。利用统计方法和机器学习方法对货币时间序列进行预测AMAPE误差和预测准确率的计算,并根据Hurst比率将货币时间序列划分为子段。研究证明,当伤害比增大时,各预测方法的预测误差减小,预测精度提高。本文所采用的方法可以成功地应用于时间序列预测,通过赫斯特指数的最优值来指示周期。
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引用次数: 1
Study of spatial uniformity of sustainable development of the European Union before, during and after the economic crisis 经济危机前后欧盟可持续发展空间统一性研究
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0537
I. Bąk, Katarzyna Cheba
The purpose of the paper is study of spatial uniformity in the field of sustainable development of European Union and geographical regions of Europe analyzed by the prism of EU countries located in this regions before, during and after the economic crisis from 2007–2008. Material and methods The analysis of similarities and differences between the EU Member States countries or in the case of geographic regions of Europe has been based on sustainable development indicators published by Eurostat. To the final set of diagnostic features, the 22 indicators have been selected. To study the spatial differentiation of sustainable development the taxonomic measure of development based on median vector Weber as well vector calculus were used. The impact of the economic crisis is particularly obvious in the Southern and Eastern European Union countries. The position of the Southern countries, that failed to cope with the world economic and financial crisis, deteriorated and they fell into the group at the lowest level of development. The results obtained in this study can be used in subsequent years to examine the direction of changes in sustainable development levels observed both from the point of view of the EU Member States and geographical regions.
本文的目的是研究欧盟可持续发展领域的空间统一性,并以2007-2008年经济危机前、危机中和危机后欧盟国家为视角,分析欧盟地理区域的空间统一性。材料和方法欧盟成员国之间或欧洲地理区域之间的异同分析是基于欧盟统计局公布的可持续发展指标。到最终的诊断特征集,22个指标已经选定。为了研究可持续发展的空间分异,采用了基于韦伯中值向量和向量演算的发展分类学测度。经济危机对南欧和东欧国家的影响尤为明显。未能应对世界经济和金融危机的南方国家的地位恶化,成为发展水平最低的国家。本研究获得的结果可用于今后几年从欧盟成员国和地理区域的角度来检查所观察到的可持续发展水平变化的方向。
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引用次数: 1
Comparison of the Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Truncated Distributions 截断分布的拟合优度检验比较
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0541
A. Lach, Łukasz Smaga
The aim of this paper is to investigate the finite sample behavior of seven goodness-of-fit tests for left truncated distributions of Chernobai et al. (2015) in terms of size and power. Simulation experiments are based on artificial data generated from the distributions that were used in the past or are used nowadays to describe the tails of asset returns. The study was conducted for different tail thickness and for changing truncation point. Simulation results indicate that the testing procedures do not work equally well under finite samples, and some of them require quite large number of observations to perform satisfactorily.
本文的目的是研究切尔诺贝利等人(2015)的左截断分布在大小和功率方面的七个拟合优度检验的有限样本行为。模拟实验是基于从过去或现在用来描述资产回报尾部的分布中产生的人工数据。对不同尾厚和不同截尾点进行了研究。仿真结果表明,在有限的样本条件下,这些测试方法并不能很好地工作,有些方法需要相当大的观测量才能令人满意地工作。
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引用次数: 0
What Influences Demand for Legal Aid? Logit Analysis with Use of Classical Model Averaging 什么因素影响法律援助的需求?使用经典模型平均的Logit分析
Pub Date : 2019-01-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0526
W. Florczak, W. Grabowski
The aim of this paper to identify, by means of relevant literature survey, and then to quantify – using representative panel of individual questionnaire data and a logit model – the impact of relevant factors affecting demand for legal aid in Poland. The set of explanatory variables contains objective factors – such as income, age, education, gender, marital status, place of residence, occupational status – as well as subjective ones, such as personal attitude towards law, knowledge of law, social capital or social activity. It follows from the results obtained on a representative sample of adult Poles that the number of factors influencing the occurrence of a legal problem is large, the factors themselves being beyond the scope of direct and intentional impact of the state. Thereby, it seems reasonable to allocate the funds devoted to the funding and functioning of the reformed legal aid system in Poland on the basis of the population size criterion. In view of the relative scarcity of quantitative research into the issues raised in the paper frequentist model averaging method has been also used to confirm/reject the conclusions draw on the basis of the logit model. However, this has not altered the afore-mentioned conclusions in any significant way.
本文的目的是通过相关文献调查来确定,然后使用个人问卷数据的代表性面板和logit模型来量化影响波兰法律援助需求的相关因素的影响。这组解释变量包括客观因素,如收入、年龄、教育程度、性别、婚姻状况、居住地、职业状况,以及主观因素,如个人对法律的态度、法律知识、社会资本或社会活动。从波兰成年人代表性样本得出的结果可以看出,影响法律问题发生的因素很多,这些因素本身超出了国家直接和有意影响的范围。因此,似乎合理的做法是根据人口规模标准分配专门用于资助和运作波兰改革后的法律援助制度的资金。鉴于对本文提出的问题的定量研究相对缺乏,也采用了频率模型平均法来确认/拒绝基于logit模型得出的结论。然而,这并没有以任何重大的方式改变上述结论。
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引用次数: 0
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Przegląd Statystyczny
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