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Structural Time Series Models in Unemployment Rate Estimation in Disaggregation on Voivodeship, Sex and Age 结构时间序列模型在省份、性别和年龄分类失业率估计中的应用
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.2365
Kamil Wilak
Central Statistical Office in Poland publishes information on labour market derived from Labour Force Survey at high level of aggregation. Estimates for small demographic domains on voivodeship level are not published due to insuffi cient precision of direct estimates, caused by small sample size. One of possible approaches to the problem is to apply small area estimation. Taking into account that LFS is panel research of households structural time series models can be used in order to borrow strength in time. The aim of the article is to evaluate this method in the context of unemployment rate estimation on voivodeship level including sex and age domains. Monte Carlo simulation study will be applied in order to assess results of estimation and compare to direct estimation. Data obtained from the Labour Force Survey in Poland between 20002009 will be used. Results of the study indicates that temporal small area estimation have better quality of estimates compared to direct estimation.
波兰中央统计局在高汇总水平上公布来自劳动力调查的关于劳动力市场的信息。由于样本量小,直接估计的精度不够,因此没有公布省一级小型人口统计领域的估计数。解决这个问题的一种可能的方法是应用小面积估计。考虑到LFS是家庭的面板研究,可以使用结构时间序列模型来借用时间上的力量。本文的目的是在包括性别和年龄域在内的省一级失业率估计的背景下评估这种方法。为了对估计结果进行评估,并与直接估计进行比较,将采用蒙特卡罗模拟研究。将使用2000年至2009年波兰劳动力调查获得的数据。研究结果表明,与直接估计相比,时间小面积估计具有更好的估计质量。
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引用次数: 0
Gale’s Economy Model with Changeable Technology, Increasing Production Efficiency and Particular Form of the Growth Criterion. “Weak” Turnpike Effect 技术变化、生产效率递增的盖尔经济模型和特定形式的增长准则。“弱”收费公路效应
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.1738
E. Panek
In reference to papers Panek (2014a, 2014b) we proved the so called „weak” version of the turnpike theorem in the non-stationary model of economic dynamics of the Gale type with the criterion of maximization of the production value, measured in von Neumann’s prices and with the fi xed economy horizon T = {0,1, ..., t1}. In the proof of the theorem the effi ciency of the economy and its increasing technological effi ciency on the turnpike play both signifi cant roles.
参考Panek (2014a, 2014b)的论文,我们在Gale型经济动力学的非平稳模型中证明了所谓的“弱”版收费公路定理,该模型以生产价值最大化为准则,以冯·诺伊曼价格衡量,经济视界T ={0,1,…, t1}。在证明该定理的过程中,经济效率和收费公路上技术效率的提高都起着重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Przegląd Statystyczny
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