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Maintenance Strategy Choice Supported by the Failure Rate Function: Application in a Serial Manufacturing Line 故障率函数支持下的维修策略选择——在批量生产线上的应用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.3311/ppso.18627
M. Sellitto, B. Pinho
The purpose of this article is to choose a maintenance procedure for the critical equipment of a forging production line with five machines. The research method is quantitative modelling and simulation. The main research technique includes retrieving time between failure and time to repair data and find the most likely distribution that has produced the data. The most likely failure rate function helps to define the maintenance strategy. The study includes two kinds of maintenance policies, reactive and anticipatory. Reactive policies include emergency and corrective procedures. Anticipatory policies include predictive and preventive ones combined with a total productive maintenance management approach. The most suitable combination for the first three machines is emergency and corrective choice. For the other machines, a combination of total productive maintenance and a predictive approach is optimal. The study encompasses the case of a serial production manufacturing line and maximum likelihood estimation. The failure rate function defines a combination of strategies for each machine. In addition, the study calculates the individual and systemic mean time to failure, mean time to repair, availability, and the most likely number of failures per production order, which follows a Poisson process. The main contribution of the article is a structured method to help define maintenance choices for critical equipment based on empirical data.
本文的目的是对某锻压生产线五台机的关键设备进行维修程序的选择。研究方法为定量建模与仿真。主要的研究技术包括检索故障间隔时间和修复数据的时间,并找到产生数据的最可能分布。最可能的故障率函数有助于定义维护策略。本研究包括两种维修策略:被动维修策略和预期维修策略。反应性策略包括紧急和纠正程序。预见性政策包括预见性和预防性政策,并结合全面的生产性维护管理方法。前三台机器最适合的组合是应急和矫正选择。对于其他机器,全面生产维护和预测方法的组合是最佳的。本研究包含了一个系列生产线的案例和最大似然估计。故障率函数定义了每台机器的策略组合。此外,该研究还计算了个人和系统的平均故障时间、平均修复时间、可用性以及每个生产订单中最可能出现的故障数量,这些都遵循泊松过程。本文的主要贡献是一个结构化的方法来帮助定义基于经验数据的关键设备的维护选择。
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引用次数: 1
Conceptual Foundations of Evaluation and Forecasting of Innovative Development of Regions 区域创新发展评价与预测的概念基础
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.3311/ppso.18530
K. Boiarynova, O. Popelo, S. Tulchynska, S. Gritsenko, I. Prikhno
The authors propose to assess and forecast the innovative development of regions using an improved methodological approach, which consists of substantiating statistical indicators of the innovative development, which are verified by correlation analysis (thereby avoiding autocorrelation between indicators of the innovative development of regions). Verification of the evaluation indicators makes it possible to determine the impact factors and the most influential indicators according to the integrated index of the innovative development of regions. Using the Bartlett method for modelling and making predictions makes it possible to take into consideration the impact of the most influential indicators on the values of the integral index, as well as to adjust the predicted values of the integral index. The calculated and forecasted integrated index of the innovative development of regions can be used by local authorities to develop measures that aim to intensify the innovative development of regions, taking into account the most influential factors for each region. The proposed methodological approach for estimating and forecasting the integrated index of the innovative development of regions was tested on the example of Polish voivodeships. To permit a more detailed consideration of the results obtained, three voivodeships, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Pomeranian and Swiętokrzyskie, were studied and compared. The results showed that these voivodeships have different values on the integrated index, which can be attributed to different regions having different levels of innovation development. The most influential factors also differ for each of the regions.
作者建议使用改进的方法论方法来评估和预测区域的创新发展,该方法包括实证创新发展的统计指标,并通过相关性分析进行验证(从而避免区域创新发展指标之间的自相关)。通过对评价指标的验证,可以根据区域创新发展的综合指数确定影响因素和最具影响力的指标。使用Bartlett方法进行建模和预测,可以考虑最具影响力的指标对积分指数值的影响,并调整积分指数的预测值。计算和预测的区域创新发展综合指数可供地方当局用于制定旨在加强区域创新发展的措施,同时考虑到每个区域最具影响力的因素。以波兰各省为例,对拟议的估算和预测各地区创新发展综合指数的方法进行了检验。为了更详细地考虑所获得的结果,对三个省,即Kujawsko Pomorskie、Pomeranian和SwiÉtokrzyskie进行了研究和比较。结果表明,这些省份的综合指数值不同,这可归因于不同地区的创新发展水平不同。影响最大的因素也因地区而异。
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引用次数: 8
Competitive Dynamics between Physical and Virtual Markets in Multiplex Networks 多路网络中物理市场与虚拟市场的竞争动态
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.3311/ppso.17935
L. Diez-Echavarria, Gerardo Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Diana Carolina Ríos-Echeverri
Despite having interesting results of analyzing the adoption of e-commerce using social networks, diffusion does not occur in a single-layered network. There is sufficient evidence that game theory, complex networks and Theory of Planned Behavior are suitable frameworks to represent some part of the dynamics of innovation diffusion. However, it is necessary to integrate this methodological triplet to accept that an emergent behavior is generated by more real causes. We analyzed the effect of the multiplex topology when people decide to make transactions through virtual or physical channels, and found that connectivity is a key issue when managing the agent’s behavior. This also translates into greater coordination in the agents' decisions. When a multiplex is formed by at least one network with very efficient information flow, this network will govern the dynamics affecting channel selection and will also reduce transaction uncertainty. In addition, we found that investing in connectivity is worthwhile when trust is low in at least one channel; otherwise, it does not have enough impact to increase current transactions. This article makes a significant methodological contribution by showing a new way to analyze the impact of multiplex social networks, as well as a practical contribution by evidencing the effects of the structures on both intentions and actions.
尽管在分析使用社交网络的电子商务采用情况时得到了有趣的结果,但扩散并不发生在单层网络中。有足够的证据表明,博弈论、复杂网络和计划行为理论是代表创新扩散动力学部分的合适框架。然而,有必要整合这三种方法,以接受突发行为是由更真实的原因产生的。当人们决定通过虚拟通道或物理通道进行交易时,我们分析了多路拓扑的影响,发现连通性是管理代理行为时的关键问题。这也转化为代理决策的更大协调。当一个多路复用由至少一个信息流非常高效的网络组成时,这个网络将控制影响信道选择的动态,也将减少交易的不确定性。此外,我们发现,当至少一个渠道的信任度较低时,投资连通性是值得的;否则,它对增加当前交易没有足够的影响。本文通过展示一种分析多元社会网络影响的新方法做出了重要的方法论贡献,同时通过证明结构对意图和行动的影响做出了实际贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The Mediating Role of Normative Commitment and the Moderating Role of Organisational Justice on the Influence of Career Development on Job Engagement 规范性承诺对职业发展对工作投入影响的中介作用和组织公正的调节作用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-28 DOI: 10.3311/ppso.16652
Mustafa Bekmezci, Kenan Orçanlı, Z. Fırat
An organisation's efficiency and effectiveness can be viewed as depending on the qualification of its employees. Organisational support and career development are among the factors that enable organisations to employ and retain qualified people. This study, which was conducted within the context of a social exchange, investigates the effect of career development on job engagement. As a result of the literature research, it has been determined that career development has a positive effect on job engagement, and it is further considered that normative commitment might have a mediating effect and organisational justice might have a moderating role in this relationship. The data was collected from 234 academics from four foundation universities in the Ankara and Mersin provinces of Turkey. The collected data were analysed using SPSS and AMOS package programs and the R and Python programming languages. The analyses demonstrate that there is a positive causal relationship between career development and job engagement, while normative commitment has a partial mediating role in this relationship, and organisational justice does not have a moderator role. 
一个组织的效率和效果可以被视为取决于其员工的资格。组织支持和职业发展是使组织能够雇用和留住合格人员的因素之一。本研究在社会交换的背景下进行,探讨职业发展对工作投入的影响。通过文献研究,确定了职业发展对工作投入的正向影响,并进一步认为规范性承诺在这一关系中可能具有中介作用,组织公正在这一关系中可能具有调节作用。这些数据是从土耳其安卡拉和梅尔辛省四所基础大学的234名学者中收集的。使用SPSS和AMOS软件包程序以及R和Python编程语言对收集的数据进行分析。分析表明,职业发展与工作投入之间存在正向的因果关系,而规范性承诺在这一关系中具有部分中介作用,组织公正不具有调节作用。
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引用次数: 1
A Possible Method for the Socio-Economic Efficiency Estimation of Smart City Projects, Paying Particular Regard to their Digital Technology Content 一种评估智慧城市项目社会经济效率的可能方法,特别是考虑其数字技术含量
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-28 DOI: 10.3311/ppso.17513
M. Chernyaev, Timofey Mikhailovich Mazurchuk, Tatyana Fedorovna Kreidenko
The digitalisation of the urban environment is one of the key areas for the development of modern urban studies. The projects within the framework of the "Smart City" concept are being implemented not only with a view to digital transformation and automation of urban processes, but also with the aim of achieving a comprehensive increase in the efficiency of the urban infrastructure, Hence, the purpose of this research paper is to propose the most effective estimation methods for the socio-economic changes taking place in Russia. The research consists in an analysis of urban infrastructure digitalisation projects, focusing on the most socially and economically profitable ones, both in terms of performance and functionality, in particular. The main set of research tools consists of searching and selecting information, analysing and processing statistical data, as well as generating a multi-purpose method for the project socio-economic efficiency assessment. Based on this methodology, it is possible to offer optimal solutions and forecast efficiency at the project development stage.The article is concerned with the digital technology projects implemented by the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation as a part of the "Smart City" development programs. The authors have concluded that adopting the multi-purpose methods for identifying the socio-economic impact of the "Smart City" digitalisation projects would accelerate the new technology implementation and efficient management of the entire "Smart City" system.
城市环境的数字化是现代城市研究发展的关键领域之一。“智慧城市”概念框架内的项目正在实施,不仅着眼于城市过程的数字化转型和自动化,而且旨在全面提高城市基础设施的效率,因此,本研究论文的目的是为俄罗斯正在发生的社会经济变化提出最有效的估计方法。该研究包括对城市基础设施数字化项目的分析,重点关注最具社会和经济效益的项目,特别是在性能和功能方面。这套主要的研究工具包括搜寻和选择资料、分析和处理统计数据,以及为项目社会经济效率评价产生一种多用途方法。基于这种方法,可以在项目开发阶段提供最佳解决方案并预测效率。本文涉及俄罗斯联邦建设部实施的数字技术项目,作为“智慧城市”发展计划的一部分。作者的结论是,采用多用途方法来确定“智慧城市”数字化项目的社会经济影响,将加速新技术的实施和整个“智慧城市”系统的有效管理。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment and forecasting of the russian regions attractiveness as a factor of Interregional migration 俄罗斯区域吸引力作为区域间移民因素的评估与预测
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.26794/2404-022x-2021-11-4-55-70
R. Fattakhov, M. Nizamutdinov, A.  R.  Atnabaev, M. Akhmetzyanova
Nowadays, one of the most important tasks of the state in the framework of ensuring sustainable socio-economic and demographic development of the country is the regulation of migration processes. The changes observed in a complex political situation, including the impact of sanctions and pandemics, have affected on the priorities transformation of the population when choosing a potential place of residence. In this regard, it is important and timely to identify trends and factors of population migration, as well as to assess the level of migration activity using modern economic and mathematical methods of analysis. These issues are most relevant for those regions where there is a migration outflow of the population. In order to identify the factors influencing a human behavior when making a decision to change their place of residence, a component analysis was conducted on 22 indicators of socio-economic development of 67 subjects of Russia. This process identifed fve main components. The obtained results formed the basis for assessing the level of attractiveness of the territories and further cluster analysis of the regions. This caused to the formation of four clusters, including the subjects of the Russian Federation with a similar level of socio-economic development. Combining the results of the multi-factor assessment made it possible to determine the complex level of socio-economic development for each region. At the next stage of the study, the identified relationships between the socio-economic development of the regions and the migration level were formalized using the methods of regression analysis. The obtained simulation results let the authors develop a forecast of the migration processes dynamics, taking into account the implementation of the inertial and optimistic scenarios for the development of the socioeconomic situation.
如今,在确保国家可持续的社会经济和人口发展的框架内,国家最重要的任务之一是调节移民过程。在复杂的政治局势中观察到的变化,包括制裁和大流行病的影响,影响到人们在选择潜在居住地时优先事项的转变。在这方面,重要和及时的是查明人口移徙的趋势和因素,以及利用现代经济和数学分析方法评估移徙活动的水平。这些问题与那些有人口移徙流出的地区最为相关。为了确定在决定改变居住地时影响人类行为的因素,对俄罗斯67名受试者的22项社会经济发展指标进行了成分分析。这一过程确定了五个主要组成部分。所得结果构成了评估各地区吸引力水平和进一步对各区域进行聚类分析的基础。这导致形成了四个集群,其中包括具有类似社会经济发展水平的俄罗斯联邦主体。综合多因素评价的结果,可以确定每个区域社会经济发展的复杂程度。在研究的下一阶段,使用回归分析的方法确定了各区域社会经济发展与移徙水平之间的关系。得到的模拟结果使作者对移民过程进行了动态预测,同时考虑了社会经济形势发展的惯性和乐观情景的实施。
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引用次数: 0
“Finance and Corporate Governance in a Changing Worln” (Based on the Materials of the iii All-Russiaт scientifc and Practical Сonference) “变化世界中的财务与公司治理”(基于《全俄科学与实用》第三期资料Сonference)
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.26794/2304-022x-2021-11-4-116-117
I. Belyaeva, O. Polishchuk
.
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引用次数: 0
Contents of the journal for 2021 2021年期刊目录
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.26794/2304-022x-2021-11-4-118-120
A. Editorial
.
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引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis of the main trends in the Interaction of scientifc and educational Organizations with Industrial enterprises 科教机构与工业企业互动的主要趋势比较分析
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.26794/2404-022x-2021-11-4-86-98
E. Kirillova
Sustainable long-term economic development in modern industrial and economic conditions becomes impossible without innovations, which require an active interaction of three subjects: science, industry and state. This study analyzed the development trends of the above subjects in the Russian Federation in conformity with the world leaders, and also it studied the current specific alterations in the modern economic community. The analysis showed that the structure of the industrial production still has a predominant part of the raw material component in Russia. The using of financial resources in innovative activities were not efficiently enough. The prevailing budget sources of financing in the structure of research and development costs show a weak interest of Russian companies in the real economic sector in the research and development results. Those scientific subjects which note a tendency of funds lackage also have an extremely low interest in the research focused on the market needs and bringing them to a commercialization form, as well as they seem not interested in the practical implementation of the possibilities of their significant human and material and technical potential. The specifics of modern conditions and the peculiarities of the development of the three main subjects of innovation determine the need for close, long-term scientific and technical cooperation with the support of the state as a regulator, stabilizer and catalyst for the development of these processes. The factors constraining the development of innovations, together with the nature of innovations, determine the need to meet this need for cooperative activity even more urgently. Integration of efforts, abilities and resource mobilization, especially in the post-crisis period, as well as the possibility of risk sharing and sharing existing equipment, as well as obtaining additional funds through in-kind exchange are necessary conditions. It is also necessary to note the role of the state as a regulator, stabilizer and catalyst for the development of innovative processes. The study schematically presents the conclusions of a regression analysis of several factors and their impact on innovative development. They confirmed the need for cooperation with educational organizations of higher education as a priority partner. Based on the analysis, there were identified organizational and economic prerequisites for the development of scientific and industrial cooperation.
在现代工业和经济条件下,经济的长期可持续发展离不开创新,而创新需要科学、工业和国家三个主体的积极互动。本研究按照世界领先的趋势分析了俄罗斯联邦上述学科的发展趋势,并研究了现代经济共同体当前的具体变化。分析表明,俄罗斯工业生产结构仍以原材料成分为主。在创新活动中使用财政资源的效率不够高。研发成本结构中普遍存在的预算融资来源表明,俄罗斯实体经济部门的企业对研发成果的兴趣较弱。那些注意到资金缺乏趋势的科学课题,对集中于市场需要并使其商业化的研究也极不感兴趣,而且它们似乎对实际执行其巨大的人力、物力和技术潜力的可能性也不感兴趣。现代条件的特殊性和三大创新主体发展的特殊性决定了在国家作为这些进程发展的调节器、稳定器和催化剂的支持下,需要密切、长期的科技合作。制约创新发展的因素以及创新的性质决定了更迫切地需要满足这种合作活动的需要。整合努力、能力和资源调动,特别是在危机后时期,以及分担风险和共享现有设备的可能性,以及通过实物交换获得额外资金,都是必要条件。也有必要注意到国家作为创新过程发展的调节器、稳定器和催化剂的作用。本文对影响创新发展的几个因素进行了回归分析,得出了结论。他们确认需要将高等教育教育组织作为优先伙伴进行合作。根据分析,确定了发展科学和工业合作的组织和经济先决条件。
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引用次数: 1
Sales management. Methodology of Improving the efficiency of the company’s sales system 销售管理。提高公司销售系统效率的方法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.26794/2404-022x-2021-11-4-99-115
A. Nazarov
The unyielding efforts to develop a methodology for building a sales management system are yet another proof of its relevance. These efforts will continue, as the business community needs a sustainable and consistent operation model. The last 7 years have seen a general economic downturn and a slow recovery. Such topics as improvement of business effciency and investment performance, validation of costs, enhancement of management quality and cost controls have been gaining in relevance. Efforts to improve effciency of businesses, primarily of those which are associated with high costs and risks are becoming increasingly important. Since 2015, the author has been receiving an ever-increasing number of client enquiries on the subject “Sales Management”. The research described was started in 2010 and it is still ongoing. The bulk of the research work and experiments, the results of which are described in the article, were completed in 2016. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in its systemic analysis of the entire managerial paradigm governing the corporate sales system. It does not offer a description of feasible operation methods but it does offer a logically consistent chain of managerial decisions following the “if…, then…” principle. The proposed methodology is logically complete and organised in a hierarchical pattern where decisions made are arranged in a graded order according to their importance. The proposed research approach relies in part on the principles of holistic thinking and it is focused on the analysis of the hierarchy of managerial decisions made and their interplay. The research was conducted while working with the clients who sought sales management consultancy services. The study results proved the effectiveness of the developed model and its high reliability for the analysis of different sales systems when one has to make managerial decisions designed to improve the sales system (though the study results are to a lesser extent applicable to retail sales). The prospects for the practical application of the results generated by this study are encouraging: modern companies need a sustainable model to analyse and streamline their sales management system. The research methodology and conclusions form the basis of the education programmes and training courses offered at the Graduate School of Corporate Management at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) and Moscow Business School.
为建立销售管理系统而做出的不懈努力是其相关性的另一个证明。这些努力将继续下去,因为商界需要一个可持续和一致的运作模式。过去7年,经济普遍低迷,复苏缓慢。提高业务效率和投资绩效、成本验证、提高管理质量和成本控制等主题日益具有相关性。努力提高企业的效率,主要是那些与高成本和风险有关的企业的效率,正变得越来越重要。自2015年以来,作者收到了越来越多的关于“销售管理”主题的客户咨询。上述研究始于2010年,目前仍在进行中。大部分研究工作和实验于2016年完成,文章中描述了其结果。所提出的方法的新颖之处在于它对管理公司销售系统的整个管理范式进行了系统分析。它没有描述可行的操作方法,但它确实提供了逻辑上一致的管理决策链,遵循“如果……,那么……”的原则。所提出的方法在逻辑上是完整的,并以分层模式组织,其中所做的决策按照其重要性按等级顺序排列。提出的研究方法部分依赖于整体思维的原则,它侧重于分析管理决策的层次结构及其相互作用。这项研究是在与寻求销售管理咨询服务的客户合作时进行的。研究结果证明了所开发模型的有效性及其在分析不同销售系统时的高可靠性,当人们必须做出旨在改善销售系统的管理决策时(尽管研究结果在较小程度上适用于零售销售)。本研究结果的实际应用前景令人鼓舞:现代公司需要一个可持续的模型来分析和简化他们的销售管理系统。这些研究方法和结论构成了俄罗斯国民经济和公共行政总统学院企业管理研究生院和莫斯科商学院提供的教育方案和培训课程的基础。
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引用次数: 0
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Periodica Polytechnica, Social and Management Sciences
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