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Determinants of consumer satisfaction with green e-marketing of international fast foods chains using service quality dimensions and happiness approach: a case study from urban Pakistan 利用服务质量维度和幸福感方法研究消费者对国际快餐连锁店绿色电子营销满意度的决定因素:巴基斯坦城市案例研究
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00349-3
Khadija Shams, Alexander Kadow

Trends in fast foods and green e-marketing are increasing around the world including Pakistan. Drawing on unique survey data of the year 2023 for urban Pakistan, this study aimed to identify the principal determinants of consumer satisfaction toward green e-marketing of international fast food chains using service quality (SERVQUAL) dimensions and the conventional economics of happiness approach. The overall sample size of 400 respondents was determined by the Yamane method. Applying ordered probit regression analyses, we found that the tangibility dimension in terms of eco-labeling of fast food packaging and the empathy dimension in terms of employees’ understanding of customer needs and preferences according to their age or gender were the most significant and important determinants for consumer satisfaction. Interestingly, monthly expenditures on green consumption fell hand in hand with consumer satisfaction, and positively and significantly related to consumer satisfaction. Using independent sample T test and ANOVA test for gender difference and different working age groups, respectively, we found significant differences between male and female consumers in their mean online expenditures on green fast food products. At least one of the working age groups showed different mean online expenditures toward the green consumption of international fast food products from the rest of the working age groups. Therefore, policy makers and stakeholders should be advised to support eco-labeling and consider consumer preferences according to their age or gender.

在包括巴基斯坦在内的世界各地,快餐和绿色电子营销的趋势都在不断增长。本研究利用 2023 年巴基斯坦城市的独特调查数据,采用服务质量(SERVQUAL)维度和传统的幸福经济学方法,旨在确定消费者对国际快餐连锁店绿色电子营销满意度的主要决定因素。采用山根法确定了 400 名受访者的总体样本量。通过有序概率回归分析,我们发现,快餐包装上的生态标签的有形性维度和员工根据年龄或性别了解顾客需求和偏好的移情维度是消费者满意度最显著、最重要的决定因素。有趣的是,每月用于绿色消费的支出与消费者满意度同时下降,并且与消费者满意度呈显著正相关。通过对性别差异和不同工作年龄组别的独立样本 T 检验和方差分析检验,我们发现男性和女性消费者在绿色快餐产品上的平均在线支出存在显著差异。至少有一个工作年龄组在国际快餐产品绿色消费方面的平均在线支出与其他工作年龄组有所不同。因此,应建议政策制定者和利益相关者支持生态标签,并根据年龄或性别考虑消费者的偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Ranking the quality of life indexes by years in Asian countries using multi-criteria decision-making methods 利用多标准决策方法对亚洲国家按年份分列的生活质量指数进行排序
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00350-w
Pınar Çelebi Demirarslan, Fatma Sönmez Çakır, Ilkben Akansel

The objective weighting methods recently introduced in the literature include method based on the removal effects of criteria (MEREC), logarithmic percentage change-driven objective weighting (LOPCOW), and modified preference selection index method (MPSI). The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of the above methods on criteria weights and rank in decision problems involving over 20 alternatives. Based on the quality of life index (QLI), the ranking of Asian countries was carried out by combining the above weighting methods with the multi-attributive ideal-real comparative analysis (MAIRCA). Combination of these methods has not been used before in this research area. Capitals of Asian countries were selected and evaluated with eight different criteria. MEREC, LOPCOW, and MPSI methods were used to weight the criteria. The MAIRCA method was used to rank the alternatives. These results were compared with Numbeo rankings. The MPSI method showed the closest ranking to the Numbeo ranking, exhibiting the highest Spearman rank correlation and lowest Euclidean distance. Given its straightforward applicability, the MPSI method is preferred among the aforementioned objective weighting methods, followed by the MEREC and then the LOPCOW methods. In addition, we also examined the applicability of the preference selection index (PSI) method to the data sets. The results indicate the PSI method may not calculate the criteria weights in decision-making problems where the number of alternatives is high.

最近在文献中提出的目标加权法包括基于标准去除效应的方法(MEREC)、对数百分比变化驱动的目标加权法(LOPCOW)和修正的偏好选择指数法(MPSI)。本研究旨在分析在涉及 20 多个备选方案的决策问题中,上述方法对标准权重和排序的影响。在生活质量指数(QLI)的基础上,将上述加权方法与多属性理想-现实比较分析法(MAIRCA)相结合,对亚洲国家进行了排序。在这一研究领域,以前从未使用过这些方法的组合。我们选择了亚洲国家的首都,并用八种不同的标准对其进行了评估。采用 MEREC、LOPCOW 和 MPSI 方法对标准进行加权。采用 MAIRCA 方法对备选方案进行排序。这些结果与 Numbeo 排名进行了比较。MPSI 方法的排序与 Numbeo 排序最为接近,表现出最高的斯皮尔曼等级相关性和最低的欧氏距离。鉴于 MPSI 方法的直接适用性,在上述客观加权方法中,MPSI 方法是首选,其次是 MEREC 方法和 LOPCOW 方法。此外,我们还考察了偏好选择指数(PSI)方法对数据集的适用性。结果表明,在备选方案数量较多的决策问题中,PSI 方法可能无法计算出标准权重。
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引用次数: 0
Nonparametric estimation of the gravity model of migration: application of partitioning Poisson estimates to Japanese inter-municipal migration by age–sex group 移民引力模型的非参数估计:按年龄-性别组划分的泊松估计值在日本城市间移民中的应用
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00348-4
Toshihide Mizuno, Hiroko Kurumai

In the analysis of migration flows, the gravity model is used as a standard framework. However, the analysis of interregional migration within a country by age and gender group using the gravity model is relatively new. This study nonparametrically estimated the relations between the number of inter-municipal migrations and origin–destination distance by age–sex groups in Japan. We assumed the number of inter-municipal migrations is proportional to the origin and destination populations. Poisson local constant estimates were used. The resulting estimator was the weighted average of the migration preference index, i.e., the ratio of the number of interregional moves to the product of the origin and destination populations, so that the interpretation of estimation results was easy and estimation computationally light. Partitioning estimate was used to reduce downward bias caused by a negative relation between the number of inter-municipal migrations and the origin–destination distance. The relation between the number of inter-municipal migrations and the origin–destination distance was fairly smooth, and the elasticity of the number of inter-municipal migrations with respect to distance somewhat larger in absolute value in shorter distances. In addition, age group 90-, especially men, were found to move frequently when compared to age groups 15–19 and 20–24 years.

在分析移民潮时,引力模型是一个标准框架。然而,利用引力模型按年龄和性别组别分析国内地区间移民情况则相对较新。本研究采用非参数方法估算了日本各年龄性别组城市间移民数量与原籍-目的地距离之间的关系。我们假设市际迁移人数与原籍地和目的地人口成正比。我们使用了泊松地方常数估算。由此得出的估算值是迁移偏好指数的加权平均值,即区域间迁移人数与原籍人口和目的地人口乘积的比值,因此估算结果易于解释,估算计算量也较小。采用分区估算法是为了减少城市间迁移人数与原籍-目的地距离之间的负相关所造成的向下偏差。城市间迁移人数与原籍-目的地距离之间的关系相当平滑,城市间迁移人数对距离的弹性在绝对值上略大于较短的距离。此外,与 15-19 岁和 20-24 岁年龄组相比,90-90 岁年龄组,尤其是男性,迁移频率更高。
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引用次数: 0
Does inequality in urban population distribution lead to income inequality? Evidence from India 城市人口分布不平等会导致收入不平等吗?印度的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00345-7
Sabyasachi Tripathi, Komali Yenneti

In developing countries, cities play a significant role in stimulating economic growth, employment opportunities and transformative change. At the same time, uneven urbanisation—driven by poverty and different levels of socioeconomic development—often contribute to wider income disparities. Issues of inequality in India have received significant attention from academia, policies and practice. Yet, there is a dearth of comprehensive understanding on the relations between inequality in urban population distribution and income inequality in India. The main objective of this study was to analyse the impact of inequality in population concentration from different classes of cities/towns on urban income inequality and the total state-level (urban + rural) income inequality in India between 1991 and 2011. This study used unit-level data on ‘Consumer Expenditures’ from the National Sample Survey and the most recently updated 35 states. The findings indicate that the inequality in urban population concentration between different classes of cities and towns exerts a significant influence on urban income inequality and total state-level income inequality in India. Additionally, the inequality in concentration of urban population in large cities increases state-level inequality, whereas in small towns, it decreases. State-level control variables such as infant mortality, literacy rate, and per-capita net state domestic product exhibit a positive and statistically significant effect on both urban and total inequality in India. The results of this research suggest that the attainment of inclusive and progressive spatial development in India necessitates the pursuit of a more equitable process of urbanisation, characterised by a gradual socio-spatial transformation in smaller towns. This serves as a guide for other developing nations seeking to achieve sustainable and equitable urbanisation.

在发展中国家,城市在刺激经济增长、创造就业机会和推动变革方面发挥着重要作用。与此同时,由于贫困和社会经济发展水平的不同,不均衡的城市化往往导致收入差距的扩大。印度的不平等问题受到了学术界、政策和实践的极大关注。然而,对于印度城市人口分布不平等与收入不平等之间的关系却缺乏全面的了解。本研究的主要目的是分析 1991 年至 2011 年间印度不同等级城市/城镇人口集聚的不平等对城市收入不平等和邦级(城市+农村)总收入不平等的影响。本研究使用了全国抽样调查和最新更新的 35 个邦的 "消费者支出 "单位层面数据。研究结果表明,不同等级城镇之间城市人口集聚的不平等对印度城市收入不平等和邦一级总收入不平等产生了重大影响。此外,大城市城市人口集聚的不平等会加剧邦一级的不平等,而小城镇的不平等则会加剧。邦一级的控制变量,如婴儿死亡率、识字率和邦人均净国内生产总值,对印度城市和总体不平等都有积极的、统计上显著的影响。研究结果表明,印度要实现包容性和渐进式的空间发展,就必须追求更加公平的城市化进程,其特点是小城镇的社会空间逐步转型。这为其他寻求实现可持续和公平城市化的发展中国家提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods 使用分解法、Box-Jenkins 法和 Holt-Winters 指数平滑法预测喜马偕尔邦的印度游客和外国游客抵达人数
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00344-8
Keerti Manisha, Inderpal Singh

Himachal Pradesh offers many tourist experiences to Indian and foreign visitors. The mountainous state experiences a high degree of tourism seasonality, interrupting the efficient operation of the tourism infrastructure. Fundamental requirements for tourism planning are accurate projections of tourist demands. However, estimating future demands becomes challenging because of the high degree of seasonality. The compound and annual growth rate methods are used in state-level tourism research to forecast future growth. Since these models cannot manage seasonality and trends in data series, they inaccurately predict future demand. In this context, forecasting models such as the Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods were used to forecast the seasonal tourism demands in the study area. The dataset utilized for the analysis was the monthly Indian and foreign tourist arrivals from 2008 to 2018. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Theil’s U1 coefficients validated that the forecast models produced accurate results. The Box–Jenkins model accurately forecasted the tourist arrivals (2019 to 2031) as reflected by the lowest error metrics (Indian: RMSE 36833.8, MAPE 3.0, Theil's U1 0.023; Foreign: RMSE 6907.59, MAPE 15.51, Theil's U1 0.10). This approach outperformed the traditional seasonal data series forecasting techniques and contributed to the literature on univariate tourist demand forecasting for hilly areas experiencing a high degree of seasonality. Estimating maximum tourist arrivals is crucial in long-term strategic planning for tourism expansion to withstand maximum loads and ensure efficient business flow, higher investment, enhanced economic growth, and environmental protection in the state. This study is a pioneer in examining tourism demands for stakeholders, tourism operators, and planners to plan the fluctuating tourism in Himachal Pradesh while adhering to sustainability principles. Furthermore, it provides inputs for effective planning and policy formulations specific to the tourism industry based on future demand assessments.

喜马偕尔邦为印度和外国游客提供了许多旅游体验。喜马偕尔邦多山,旅游季节性强,影响了旅游基础设施的有效运行。旅游规划的基本要求是准确预测游客需求。然而,由于季节性很强,对未来需求的估算变得十分困难。国家级旅游业研究使用复合增长率和年增长率方法来预测未来增长。由于这些模型无法管理数据序列中的季节性和趋势,因此对未来需求的预测并不准确。在这种情况下,我们使用了分解法、Box-Jenkins 和 Holt-Winters 指数平滑法等预测模型来预测研究区域的季节性旅游需求。分析所使用的数据集是 2008 年至 2018 年每月的印度和外国游客抵达人数。均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和 Theil's U1 系数验证了预测模型产生了准确的结果。Box-Jenkins 模型准确地预测了游客抵达量(2019 年至 2031 年),误差指标最低(印度:RMSE 36833.8;中国:RMSE 36833.8;日本:RMSE 36833.8):印度:RMSE 36833.8,MAPE 3.0,Theil's U1 0.023;外国:RMSE 6907.59,MAPE 3.0,Theil's U1 0.023:RMSE:6907.59,MAPE:15.51,Theil's U1:0.10)。该方法优于传统的季节性数据序列预测技术,为单变量游客需求预测方面的文献做出了贡献。估算最大游客抵达量对于旅游业扩张的长期战略规划至关重要,这样才能承受最大负荷,确保高效的商业流动、更高的投资、更强的经济增长和国家环境保护。本研究率先为利益相关者、旅游业经营者和规划者研究了旅游业需求,以便在遵循可持续发展原则的前提下规划喜马偕尔邦波动的旅游业。此外,它还为基于未来需求评估的旅游业有效规划和政策制定提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Does the adoption of homestead gardening increase dietary diversity in climate-vulnerable coastal areas? Evidence from Bangladesh 在易受气候影响的沿海地区,采用家庭园艺是否会增加饮食多样性?孟加拉国的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00347-5
Md. Sadique Rahman, Farhad Zulfiqar, Hayat Ullah, Sushil Kumar Himanshu, Mofasser Rahman, Avishek Datta

Coastal areas are not conducive to cultivating a variety of crops due to the occurrence of natural disasters. Therefore, homestead gardening has the potential to increase food production and consumption in coastal households, thereby enhancing climate resilience. Adopting homestead gardening as an adaptation measure for climate change can improve food security in climate-vulnerable areas. This study identified factors associated with the adoption of homestead gardening and their impacts on dietary diversity in coastal areas of Bangladesh. A total of 750 coastal households were surveyed. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, household dietary diversity score, endogenous switching regression model, and propensity score matching method were applied. According to the results, only 14.26% of coastal households adopted homestead gardening. The likelihood of adoption was increased by factors, such as age, spousal education, own cultivable land size, salinity perception, and mobile phone ownership. Results of the endogenous switching regression model indicated that the adopters of homestead gardens had a 13-point greater mean probability of a higher household dietary diversity score than the non-adopters. Results of the propensity score matching also showed a nearly identical finding. A strong extension service that uses modern information technology is required to disseminate homestead gardening technology in coastal areas. Climate change awareness initiatives are recommended to raise households cognizance on the negative effects of climate change, which in turn helps increase the adoption of homestead gardening as an adaptation measure.

由于自然灾害频发,沿海地区不利于种植各种作物。因此,家庭园艺有可能增加沿海家庭的粮食生产和消费,从而提高气候复原力。采用宅园种植作为适应气候变化的措施,可以提高气候脆弱地区的粮食安全。本研究确定了孟加拉国沿海地区采用宅园种植的相关因素及其对膳食多样性的影响。共调查了 750 户沿海家庭。数据分析采用了描述性统计、家庭膳食多样性得分、内生转换回归模型和倾向得分匹配法。结果显示,只有 14.26% 的沿海家庭采用了宅园种植。年龄、配偶受教育程度、自有耕地面积、盐度感知和手机拥有量等因素增加了采用的可能性。内生转换回归模型的结果表明,采用自留地菜园的家庭比未采用自留地菜园的家庭膳食多样性得分高出 13 分。倾向得分匹配的结果也显示了几乎相同的结论。要在沿海地区推广宅园种植技术,需要利用现代信息技术提供强有力的推广服务。建议开展气候变化宣传活动,提高家庭对气候变化负面影响的认识,这反过来又有助于提高家庭园艺作为适应措施的采用率。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-generational Smong narratives in Aceh’s tsunami resilience 亚齐海啸复原力中的跨代斯芒叙事
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00346-6
Alfi Rahman, Muzayin Nazaruddin, Nurul Fajar Januriyadi, Muzailin Affan

Smong is an indigenous knowledge of the Simeuluean people related to tsunamis, which proved to be successful in saving lives during the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. This study investigates the cross-generational development of Smong narratives among the Simeuluean people by exploring their resilience to tsunamis. The data collected through in-depth interviews in 2016, 2017, 2022, and 2023 unraveled the intricate dynamics of Smong narratives. This study captures the perspectives of 37 interviews of 18 participants selected based on age, gender, and availability. Older participants who received the Smong story from someone who experienced the 1907 tsunami and the 2004 tsunami played a vital role in preserving Smong narratives, emphasizing the enduring integration of Smong within the cultural repertoire. Younger participants, especially youth/middle-aged individuals, showed innovative reinterpretations, intertwining indigenous knowledge with new modes of understanding. Gender-diverse perspectives revealed the emotional depth embedded in Smong’s narratives. Temporal shifts in Smong narratives emerged, reflecting the uncertain role of Smong in contemporary times. The findings illustrate a complex interplay of generational perspectives, cultural adaptation, gender dynamics, and temporal shifts within the Simeuluean people. Participant narratives provide nuanced insights into lived experiences, contributing to the local context of Smong narratives. This study enhances our understanding of the evolving nature of Smong narratives, emphasizing the importance of preserving the cultural format while developing contemporary applications.

斯芒(Smong)是西米卢埃人(Simeuluean)与海啸有关的本土知识,在 2004 年印度洋海啸中被证明成功地挽救了生命。本研究通过探索西梅卢安人对海啸的适应能力,研究了西梅卢安人中 Smong 叙事的跨代发展。通过 2016 年、2017 年、2022 年和 2023 年的深入访谈收集的数据揭示了斯芒叙事错综复杂的动态变化。本研究记录了根据年龄、性别和时间选择的 18 位参与者的 37 次访谈观点。年长的参与者从经历过 1907 年海啸和 2004 年海啸的人那里获得了斯蒙故事,他们在保存斯蒙叙事方面发挥了重要作用,强调了斯蒙在文化剧目中的持久融合。年轻的参与者,特别是青年/中年人,表现出创新的重新诠释,将本土知识与新的理解模式交织在一起。不同性别的观点揭示了斯蒙叙事中蕴含的情感深度。斯芒叙事中出现的时间变化反映了斯芒在当代的不确定作用。研究结果表明,世代视角、文化适应、性别动态和时空变迁在锡美纽尔人中复杂地相互作用。参与者的叙述提供了对生活经历的细微洞察,有助于了解斯芒族叙述的当地背景。这项研究加深了我们对斯芒族叙事演变性质的理解,强调了在开发当代应用的同时保留文化形式的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Total factor productivity and institutional quality in Vietnam: which institutions matter most? 越南的全要素生产率和机构质量:哪些机构最重要?
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00343-9
Van Ha, John Andre, Anh Tran Kim, Hien Nguyen Thi Thu

The roles of institutional quality’s impact on firm performance are becoming increasingly prominent in the literature. This is true in the Global North and South. Vietnam has seen less research on this topic than other developing countries, so this paper seeks to rectify this by examining whether or not institutional quality influences firm performance, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP). This paper also digs deeper into the sub-components to see which institutions are the most influential. We applied the General Method of Moments (GMM) approach to a firm-level panel dataset covering the 2010–2020 period to examine institutional quality's impact on firm TFP. Results are explored by firm size and by ownership type (domestic private, foreign and state-owned). Using rich datasets covering institutional quality at the provincial level in Vietnam and also individual firm performance from 2010 to 2020, we found that Time cost (how long it takes firms to deal with the government on various issues) and Labor policy (how easy it is to hire good quality labor) are the most important of the 10 institutions studied. Additionally, while not all institutions influence TFP, institutional quality overall (all 10 institutions combined) clearly has a positive influence on TFP. This study fills a research gap by examining the relationship between institutional quality and firm performance in Vietnam. The findings emphasize the significance of Time cost and Labor policy as influential institutions and highlight the positive overall impact of institutional quality on TFP. The policy recommendations offered provide valuable insights for the government to further enhance firm productivity through targeted measures.

机构质量对公司业绩的影响在文献中的作用日益突出。无论在全球北方还是南方,情况都是如此。与其他发展中国家相比,越南在这方面的研究较少,因此本文试图通过研究制度质量是否影响企业绩效(以全要素生产率(TFP)衡量)来纠正这一现象。本文还深入研究了各子要素,以了解哪些制度最具影响力。我们将一般矩量法(GMM)应用于 2010-2020 年期间的企业级面板数据集,以研究制度质量对企业全要素生产率的影响。我们按企业规模和所有制类型(国内私营企业、外资企业和国有企业)对结果进行了探讨。通过使用涵盖越南省级制度质量以及 2010-2020 年间单个企业绩效的丰富数据集,我们发现,在所研究的 10 项制度中,时间成本(企业就各种问题与政府打交道所需的时间)和劳动政策(雇用优质劳动力的难易程度)最为重要。此外,虽然并非所有制度都会影响全要素生产率,但总体制度质量(所有 10 个制度的总和)显然对全要素生产率有积极影响。本研究通过考察越南制度质量与企业绩效之间的关系,填补了研究空白。研究结果强调了时间成本和劳动政策作为有影响力的制度的重要性,并突出了制度质量对全要素生产率的总体积极影响。所提出的政策建议为政府通过有针对性的措施进一步提高企业生产率提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
External shock, stimulus policy and economic resilience of small and micro businesses: evidence from COVID-19 pandemic in China 外部冲击、刺激政策与小型和微型企业的经济韧性:来自中国 COVID-19 大流行的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00339-5
Bo Xu, Jingjing Li, Yujun Wu

How resilient are Small and Micro Businesses (SMBs) facing the COVID-19 pandemic? We aim to answer this question using sales data from 35,000 brick-and-mortar SMBs in 353 Chinese cities before, during, and after the lockdown period of COVID-19, and examine the economic resilience of SMBs under the impact of governmental stimulus policies. We found that unlike large business entities, SMBs’ post-shock resilience is weak, as sales of SMBs do not recover to pre-shock levels. Resilience of SMBs in towns with unitary or small-scale economic structure is stronger than in larger cities, indicating that stickiness of consumption behaviour significantly influences recovery. In the midterm, resilience of SMBs was stronger where local governments implemented offline consumption stimulus policies and this effect was more salient in larger cities. In the long run, SMBs have not shown resilience, indicating pandemic-driven digital transformation of retailing has lasting effects on offline SMBs. Our empirical findings are helpful for policymakers worldwide 1) to understand economic resilience and recovery paths for SMBs facing external shock, 2) to design targeted stimulus policies to help SMBs survive during crises, and 3) to pay more attention to providing digital transformation infrastructures so SMBs can truly strengthen their sustainability in this new era of digital economy.

面对 COVID-19 大流行,小型和微型企业(SMB)的抗风险能力如何?我们利用中国 353 个城市 35,000 家实体中小型企业在 COVID-19 封锁期之前、期间和之后的销售数据回答了这一问题,并研究了中小型企业在政府刺激政策影响下的经济韧性。我们发现,与大型企业实体不同,中小企业在冲击后的恢复能力较弱,因为中小企业的销售额并未恢复到冲击前的水平。在经济结构单一或规模较小的城镇,中小型企业的恢复力要强于大城市,这表明消费行为的粘性在很大程度上影响了经济复苏。从中期来看,在地方政府实施线下消费刺激政策的地方,中小企业的恢复能力更强,这种效应在较大的城市更为突出。从长期来看,中小企业并没有表现出恢复力,这表明大流行病驱动的零售业数字化转型对线下中小企业产生了持久影响。我们的实证研究结果有助于全球政策制定者:1)了解中小企业面对外部冲击时的经济韧性和复苏路径;2)设计有针对性的刺激政策,帮助中小企业在危机中生存下来;3)更加重视提供数字化转型基础设施,使中小企业在新的数字经济时代真正增强可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Reconsideration of modern monetary theory-type fiscal and monetary stabilization policy from a viewpoint of the dynamic Keynesian model 从动态凯恩斯模型的角度重新审视现代货币理论型财政和货币稳定政策
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00341-x
Ken Matsumoto

In this paper, we examine macroeconomic stability and instability of a dynamic Keynesian Model with a theoretical foundation of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), often considered as unconventional within mainstream economics. MMT fundamentally emphasizes proactive fiscal policies and passive monetary policies, always striving to maximize employment. A common critique of MMT is the assertion that governments find it challenging to control output and inflation through a fiscal policy. It is also argued that governments should always demonstrate responsibility for the fiscal balance, and without such responsibility, the “credibility” of government bonds is damaged. Opposingly, this study finds that establishing credibility in inflation targets and consistently pursuing proactive fiscal policies in response to deficient output gaps are effective in managing inflation from escalating uncontrollably, which may help stabilize the economy. Although the fundamental tenets of MMT may not heavily emphasize inflation target, which belong to monetary policies, the importance of fiscal policies is reaffirmed by the conclusions drawn from this paper, likely ensuring that crucial aspects of MMT are not disregarded.

在本文中,我们研究了以现代货币理论(MMT)为理论基础的动态凯恩斯模型的宏观经济稳定性和不稳定性。MMT 从根本上强调积极的财政政策和被动的货币政策,并始终努力实现就业最大化。对 MMT 的一个常见批评是,政府发现通过财政政策控制产出和通胀具有挑战性。还有人认为,政府应始终表现出对财政平衡的责任感,如果没有这种责任感,政府债券的 "公信力 "就会受损。与此相反,本研究发现,建立通胀目标的可信度,并针对不足的产出缺口持续推行积极的财政政策,可以有效控制通胀的失控,从而有助于稳定经济。虽然 MMT 的基本原理可能并不十分强调属于货币政策的通胀目标,但本文得出的结论再次肯定了财政政策的重要性,这可能会确保 MMT 的关键方面不会被忽视。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science
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