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Conditions for approaching shared value creation management in the Japanese rice flour-related business: application of mixed methods research 日本米粉相关企业共享价值创造管理的条件:混合方法研究的应用
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00342-w
Lily Kiminami, Shinichi Furuzawa, Akira Kiminami

This is the second paper on creating shared value (CSV) management in Japanese rice flour-related businesses conducted by the same authors. In the first study, the relationships among business philosophies, business strategies and business outcomes of rice flour-related corporates in Japan were clarified using structural equation modeling (SEM) and cognitive mapping of questionnaire survey results. The management philosophy, effective altruism, influences business strategies (potential head market, tail market, organizational learning, and proposals from stakeholders) of rice flour-related corporates, inducing innovation and determining current business performance and future prospects for shared value creation. The business performance reflects their expectations for the rice flour market, and influences the direction of market development. In addition, we showed a need for policy innovations that strengthen effective altruism and create shared value through organizational learning of the stakeholders in rice flour-related businesses. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to clarify conditions for approaching CSV management in domestic rice flour-related businesses by applying mixed methods research (MMR). Specifically, a latent class analysis (LCA) was introduced to classify the management characteristics of rice flour-related businesses with survey results, and a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) conducted on the CSV management entities extracted from the LCA to clarify the necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving CSV management. The results revealed that there are very few rice flour-related businesses in Japan that have approached CSV management, and sufficient conditions for approaching CSV management in rice flour-related businesses are a combination of effective altruism and various management strategies (long tail/organizational learning/innovation/stakeholder proposals). Therefore, we conclude that to achieve a sustainable regional development of rice flour-related businesses, policy innovations that integrate pull-type and push-type strategies are important.

这是同一作者撰写的第二篇关于日本米粉相关企业创造共享价值(CSV)管理的论文。在第一项研究中,作者利用结构方程模型(SEM)和对问卷调查结果的认知映射,阐明了日本米粉相关企业的经营理念、经营战略和经营成果之间的关系。有效利他主义这一管理理念影响了米粉相关企业的经营战略(潜在的头部市场、尾部市场、组织学习和利益相关者的建议),诱发了创新,并决定了当前的经营业绩和未来共享价值创造的前景。经营业绩反映了企业对米粉市场的预期,并影响着市场的发展方向。此外,我们还发现有必要进行政策创新,通过米粉相关企业利益相关者的组织学习,加强有效利他主义,创造共享价值。因此,本研究旨在通过混合方法研究(MMR),阐明国内米粉相关企业进行 CSV 管理的条件。具体而言,本研究引入了潜类分析法(LCA),利用调查结果对米粉相关企业的管理特征进行分类,并对从潜类分析法中提取的 CSV 管理实体进行定性比较分析(QCA),以明确实现 CSV 管理的必要条件和充分条件。结果显示,在日本,与米粉相关的企业很少有实行 CSV 管理的,而在与米粉相关的企业中实行 CSV 管理的充分条件是有效利他主义与各种管理战略(长尾/组织学习/创新/利益相关者建议)的结合。因此,我们得出结论,要实现米粉相关企业的区域可持续发展,整合拉动型和推动型战略的政策创新非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Unleashing economic potential: decoding the FDI-economic growth nexus in G-15 economies amidst unique host country traits 释放经济潜力:解密 15 国集团经济体中外国直接投资与经济增长之间的关系以及东道国的独特特征
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00340-y
Aastha Bajaj, Lakshmi Bhooshetty

This study examined the impacts of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth across top the five G-15 countries over a period of 33 years, while considering the influence of key host country traits, namely macroeconomic stability, financial development, human capital, and trade openness. The selection of these variables was firmly supported by both theoretical foundations and empirical studies that highlight their significant role in shaping the FDI–growth interconnection. Panel data derived from World Bank Indicators, spanning the period from 1989 to 2021, were analyzed using a feasible generalized least squares method (FGLS), a rigorous approach, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root tests, and multiple regression models. By exploring the interconnection between FDI and the characteristics of the host country, this study sheds light on how these factors collectively contributed to economic growth in the G-15 economies. Descriptive statistics indicated a favorable trend in economic growth, with an average of 3.470 and a standard deviation of 4.289. Correlation analysis revealed significant positive relationships between Economic Growth and Gross Capital Formation, Human Capital, and Liquid Liabilities. Conversely, FDI, Inflation, and Trade Openness displayed insignificant positive correlations with Economic Growth. The findings also demonstrated that favorable host country traits magnified the impact of FDI on economic growth. Specifically, increased Financial Development, Human Capital, and Trade Openness enhanced the positive effects of FDI on economic growth. However, Inflation had a dampening effect on the growth factor. Policymakers in G-15 countries should give precedence to developing strong financial markets, promoting trade liberalization, and investing in human capital to optimize the advantages of FDI. This research addresses a critical gap in the literature as limited empirical work has been conducted on the FDI–growth relationships specific to the G-15 economies, which hold substantial influence in the global investment landscape and showcase remarkable economic growth. By employing rigorous panel data methodology and a long-term dataset, we provides original insights into the interaction between FDI and host country characteristics, contributing to the existing body of knowledge.

本研究考察了 33 年间外商直接投资(FDI)对五大 G-15 国家经济增长的影响,同时考虑了主要东道国特征的影响,即宏观经济稳定性、金融发展、人力资本和贸易开放度。这些变量的选择得到了理论基础和实证研究的有力支持,这些理论和研究都强调了它们在形成外国直接投资与增长之间的相互联系方面的重要作用。我们使用可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)对世界银行指标中 1989 年至 2021 年的面板数据进行了分析,该方法非常严谨,包括描述性统计、相关性分析、横截面依赖性检验、单位根检验和多元回归模型。通过探讨外国直接投资与东道国特征之间的相互联系,本研究揭示了这些因素如何共同促进 15 国集团经济体的经济增长。描述性统计表明,经济增长趋势良好,平均值为 3.470,标准差为 4.289。相关分析表明,经济增长与资本形成总额、人力资本和流动负债之间存在明显的正相关关系。相反,外国直接投资、通货膨胀和贸易开放度与经济增长的正相关关系不明显。研究结果还表明,有利的东道国特征放大了外国直接投资对经济增长的影响。具体而言,金融发展、人力资本和贸易开放程度的提高增强了外国直接投资对经济增长的积极影响。然而,通货膨胀对增长因素产生了抑制作用。15 国集团的政策制定者应优先发展强大的金融市场、促进贸易自由化和投资于人力资本,以优化外国直接投资的优势。15 国集团在全球投资格局中拥有巨大影响力,并展示出显著的经济增长,但针对 15 国集团经济体的外国直接投资与经济增长关系的实证研究却十分有限,本研究弥补了这一文献空白。通过采用严格的面板数据方法和长期数据集,我们对外国直接投资与东道国特征之间的互动关系提出了独到的见解,为现有知识体系做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal assessment of vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change in Madhya Pradesh, India 印度中央邦农业部门易受气候变化影响的时空评估
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-26 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00338-6
Alinda George, Pritee Sharma

Madhya Pradesh, the central state of India, has a larger share of the population depending on the agricultural sector, mainly belonging to tribal groups and are largely marginal and small landholders. Though the sector performed a double-digit growth rate in recent years, this is skewed towards very few districts, whereas others remain neglected. These increasing disparities may lead to increased vulnerability to climate change in the backward districts of this sector. This study assessed the spatial and temporal vulnerability of the sector to climate change with the agricultural vulnerability index prepared using the IPCC approach at the district level for 5 decades (1970s–2010s). Hotspots of agricultural vulnerability where targeted policy interventions are required were located. Through spatial autocorrelation techniques, we identified whether the clustering of agricultural vulnerability exists and detected changes over the decades. This study has wide applications for the agricultural sector in Madhya Pradesh and other Indian states, which possess similar agricultural characteristics.

中央邦是印度的中部邦,依赖农业的人口比例较大,主要属于部落群体,大部分是边缘化的小土地所有者。虽然近年来农业部门实现了两位数的增长率,但这只是向极少数地区倾斜,而其他地区仍被忽视。这些日益扩大的差距可能会导致该部门落后地区更容易受到气候变化的影响。本研究采用 IPCC 方法编制的农业脆弱性指数,在地区一级评估了该部门在空间和时间上对气候变化的脆弱性,时间跨度长达 50 年(1970 年代至 2010 年代)。确定了需要采取有针对性的政策干预措施的农业脆弱性热点。通过空间自相关技术,我们确定了农业脆弱性是否存在集群现象,并发现了几十年来的变化。这项研究对中央邦和印度其他具有类似农业特征的邦的农业部门具有广泛的应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of rural electrification on economic growth: a comprehensive analysis considering informal economy and income inequality in Bangladesh 评估农村电气化对经济增长的影响:考虑孟加拉国非正规经济和收入不平等的综合分析
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00336-8
Sanjoy Kumar Saha

Rural electrification, serving as a proxy for energy access, is pivotal for economic growth in Bangladesh. This paper investigates the long-run and short-run effects of rural electrification (RELEC) on economic growth, while also considering the influence of the informal economy, and income inequality. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and analyzing data of Bangladesh economy over the period 1976–2020, the study finds that RELEC has a significant positive impact on economic growth in the long run. However, in the short run, RELEC exhibits negative effects on economic growth. FMOLS method is utilized to check the sensitivity that confirms the long run favorable impact of rural electrification on economic growth. The Informal Economy negatively affects growth, while the Gini coefficient has a positive impact in both short and long terms. Vector error correction methodology (VECM) shows bidirectional causality between growth and electrification. This unique study considers diverse determinants amid Bangladesh’s evolving economic landscape. Policymakers are urged to diversify the energy mix to meet rural electrification demand, involving private investment, boosting capacity, and fostering competition. Moreover, there is a necessity to promote various channels such as sustainable agriculture, rural industrialization, poverty reduction through which electricity access may enhance growth. The error correction term (ECT) coefficients show a rather quick adjustment process, demonstrating that the model’s adjustment mechanism is agile.

农村电气化作为能源普及的代表,对孟加拉国的经济增长至关重要。本文研究了农村电气化(RELEC)对经济增长的长期和短期影响,同时还考虑了非正规经济和收入不平等的影响。研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法,分析了 1976-2020 年期间孟加拉国的经济数据,发现农村电气化(RELEC)在长期内对经济增长有显著的积极影响。然而,从短期来看,RELEC 对经济增长有负面影响。利用 FMOLS 方法检验了敏感性,证实了农村电气化对经济增长的长期有利影响。非正规经济对经济增长有负面影响,而基尼系数在短期和长期都有正面影响。向量误差修正方法(VECM)显示了经济增长与电气化之间的双向因果关系。这项独特的研究考虑了孟加拉国不断变化的经济格局中的各种决定因素。研究敦促决策者实现能源组合多样化,以满足农村电气化需求,同时引入私人投资,提高产能,促进竞争。此外,有必要促进各种渠道,如可持续农业、农村工业化、减贫,通过这些渠道,电力供应可促进增长。误差修正项系数显示了一个相当快的调整过程,表明模型的调整机制是灵活的。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring spatial heterogeneity of air quality on apartment transaction prices in Seoul, South Korea 衡量空气质量对韩国首尔公寓交易价格的空间异质性
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00337-7
Dongwoo Hyun, Hye Kyung Lee

Air quality is one of the largest environmental risks for people in urban areas. Therefore, research on the economic value of air quality is necessary to reduce adverse impacts from air pollution on public health and economy for achieving sustainable cities. One of the main objectives of this research was to analyze spatial variability of air quality and spatial distribution of apartment transactions in Seoul, South Korea between January 2018 and June 2020. A second aim was to conduct spatial econometrics to determine the impacts of air quality on housing prices by proposing a spatial lag model to estimate exogeneous spatial autocorrelation of air quality in adjacent areas. Transaction data from 17,000 apartments between January 2018 and June 2020 provided strong evidence for the existence of significant effects of air quality on housing prices. As expected, all three air quality measurements, levels of PM10, PM2.5 and Comprehensive Air-quality Index (CAI), showed a negative correlation with housing transaction prices, suggesting worsening air quality leads apartments in such areas to be transacted at a discount. Moreover, the spatial model showed a strong spatial dependence between air quality in a given region and neighboring regions, and such effects led to a decrease in the price effect of air quality. Under conditions of poor air quality and its impacts on human health, demands for clean air in dense urban areas when purchasing an apartment unit are increasing especially in the post-COVID era. The results of this study can help urban planners and developers determine guidelines and spatial strategies for sustainable cities.

空气质量是城市地区人们面临的最大环境风险之一。因此,有必要研究空气质量的经济价值,以减少空气污染对公众健康和经济的不利影响,实现城市的可持续发展。本研究的主要目的之一是分析 2018 年 1 月至 2020 年 6 月期间韩国首尔空气质量的空间变化和公寓交易的空间分布。第二个目的是进行空间计量经济学研究,通过提出空间滞后模型来估计相邻地区空气质量的外生空间自相关性,从而确定空气质量对房价的影响。2018 年 1 月至 2020 年 6 月期间 1.7 万套公寓的交易数据为空气质量对房价存在显著影响提供了有力证据。正如预期的那样,PM10、PM2.5 和综合空气质量指数(CAI)这三种空气质量测量值都与住房交易价格呈负相关,表明空气质量恶化导致这些地区的公寓以折扣价成交。此外,空间模型显示,特定区域的空气质量与邻近区域的空气质量之间存在很强的空间依赖性,这种效应导致空气质量的价格效应下降。在空气质量差及其对人类健康影响的条件下,在密集的城市地区购买公寓单位时对清洁空气的需求正在增加,特别是在后 COVID 时代。这项研究的结果有助于城市规划者和开发商确定可持续城市的指导方针和空间战略。
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引用次数: 0
Allometric evolution between economic growth and carbon emissions and its driving factors in the Yangtze River Delta region 长江三角洲地区经济增长与碳排放之间的异速演变及其驱动因素
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00335-9
Zaijun Li, Peng Chen, Meijuan Hu

Balancing economic growth and carbon emissions reduction is crucial for achieving integrated development in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and meeting green initiatives. This study utilized the allometric growth model to analyze the decoupling relationship between economic growth (EG) and carbon emissions (CE) in the YRD city cluster from 2000 to 2017. In addition, the geographically weighted quantile regression model (GWQR) was used to identify factors influencing this relationship. The main findings are as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2017, a V-shaped positive correlation trend was observed between EG and CE. Meanwhile, the spatial correlation level declined, with strong incidence values concentrated in the central and northern parts of the delta region. Conversely, areas with low incidence intensity were scattered across certain counties in the Anhui Province and the northwest region of Zhejiang Province. (2) From 2000 to 2017, the region witnessed a dominant I-type negative allometric growth pattern with weak economic expansion between EG and CE. In addition, most counties underwent a shift from positive allometry to negative allometry, particularly types I and II. (3) The influence of various factors on allometric growth pattern varied across counties and quantiles. Population density (POP) consistently had negative impacts at the 0.1 and 0.9 quantiles for all counties, while showing both positive and negative effects at the 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 quantiles. Urbanization rate (URB) generally had a negative impact, except at the 0.7 quantile. The ratio of the tertiary industries to GDP (TER) had a negative effect only at the 0.1 quantile but had mixed positive and negative effects at other quantiles. Carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation (CSE) exhibited both positive and negative impacts at higher quantiles but consistently had a positive impact at the 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 quantiles. These findings provide valuable insights into the complex relationship between these factors and allometric growth in different regions and quantiles, informing policy-making and sustainable development strategies.

平衡经济增长与碳减排对于实现长三角地区一体化发展和绿色倡议至关重要。本研究利用异速增长模型分析了 2000 年至 2017 年长三角城市群经济增长(EG)与碳排放(CE)之间的脱钩关系。此外,还采用了地理加权量化回归模型(GWQR)来识别影响这一关系的因素。主要研究结果如下(1)从 2000 年到 2017 年,EG 与 CE 之间呈 V 型正相关趋势。同时,空间相关水平下降,强烈的发生值集中在三角洲地区的中部和北部。相反,发病强度较低的地区则分散在安徽省的某些县和浙江省的西北部地区。(2)从 2000 年到 2017 年,该地区出现了占主导地位的 I 型负异速增长模式,在 EG 和 CE 之间经济扩张乏力。此外,大部分县域经历了从正异速增长到负异速增长的转变,尤其是 I 型和 II 型。(3)各种因素对异速增长模式的影响在不同县和不同量级之间存在差异。人口密度(POP)对所有县的 0.1 和 0.9 量级均有负面影响,而对 0.3、0.5 和 0.7 量级则既有正面影响也有负面影响。除 0.7 分位数外,城市化率(URB)一般具有负面影响。第三产业与国内生产总值之比(TER)仅在 0.1 分位数有负面影响,但在其他分位数有正负混合影响。陆地植被的碳螯合作用(CSE)在较高的分位数上既有正向影响也有负向影响,但在 0.1、0.3 和 0.5 分位数上始终具有正向影响。这些发现为深入了解这些因素与不同地区和不同数量级的异速增长之间的复杂关系提供了宝贵的信息,为决策和可持续发展战略提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Provincial income convergence in Vietnam: spatio-temporal dynamics and conditioning factors 越南各省的收入趋同:时空动态和影响因素
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00334-w
Minh-Thu Thi Nguyen

In this article, we use a three-step procedure that combines the log t convergence test, Explanatory Spatial Data Analysis, and ordered logit regression to determine the spatio-temporal dynamics and determinants of provincial income clustering in Vietnam during the 2010–2020 period. Our findings are three-fold. First, provincial income clustering in Vietnam follows patterns of club convergence towards multiple equilibria. Seven convergence clubs encompassing 61 provinces are identified. Second, spatial autocorrelation encourages neighboring provinces to converge toward shared income equilibria. High-income clusters are observed in the Northern and Southern Key Economic Regions, while low-income clusters are concentrated in the mountainous areas of Northern Vietnam. Finally, both internal and external factors significantly affect the formation of convergence clubs. Vital internal factors include localities’ initial conditions of physical capital and structural change. Meanwhile, external factors refer to spatial externalities among neighboring provinces. We highlight spatial complementarity in physical capital accumulation and spatial competition in industrial intensification among neighboring provinces.

在本文中,我们采用对数 t 收敛检验、解释性空间数据分析和有序对数回归相结合的三步程序来确定 2010-2020 年期间越南省级收入集聚的时空动态和决定因素。我们的研究结果有三个方面。首先,越南的省级收入集聚遵循向多重均衡的俱乐部收敛模式。我们确定了七个趋同俱乐部,涵盖 61 个省。其次,空间自相关性促使相邻省份向共同的收入均衡点靠拢。在北部和南部主要经济区发现了高收入集群,而低收入集群则集中在越南北部山区。最后,内部和外部因素对聚合俱乐部的形成都有重要影响。重要的内部因素包括各地的物质资本初始条件和结构变化。同时,外部因素指的是相邻省份之间的空间外部性。我们强调了物质资本积累的空间互补性和相邻省份间产业集约的空间竞争性。
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引用次数: 0
Charting vocational education: impact of agglomeration economies on job–education mismatch in Indonesia 职业教育图表:印度尼西亚集聚经济对就业与教育不匹配的影响
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00333-x
Nurina Paramitasari, Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik, Benedictus Raksaka Mahi, Djoni Hartono

Job–education matching drives inclusive growth through effective human capital investment. Examination of factors that promote the smooth flow of job-education is crucial in the matching process. We examined how agglomeration affects job-education mismatches among 101,748 employed graduates of vocational secondary schools in Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan (SMK). SMK graduates are the leading cause of unemployment in Indonesia. Data were obtained from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) conducted between 2017 and 2019. This study revealed three different types of job-education mismatches: (1) overeducated workers (level of education exceeds the requirements of their job); (2) horizontally mismatched workers (skills do not align with the job requirements); and (3) workers who are both overeducated and horizontally mismatched, which defines a real mismatch. Employing the job-analysis approach, a 13.58 percent incidence of overeducation and a 61.58 percent incidence of horizontal mismatch among SMK graduates was determined. More than half of these graduates work in jobs where they lack the necessary skills. By assessing the two types of job-education mismatches, we determined that 10.13 percent were real mismatched workers. These workers endured major challenges as they simultaneously suffered horizontal mismatch and overeducation. Dealing with endogeneity and sample selection biases, we showed that agglomeration actively promotes the matching process between occupation and education. Adding 100 workers per square kilometer reduced the probability of overeducation by 0.15 percent, horizontal mismatch by 0.19 percent, and real mismatch by 0.1 percent. Indonesian agglomeration areas outside Java (Mebidangro and Sarbagita) are more effective for reducing risks of overeducation, horizontal and real mismatch than areas in Java (Jabodetabek, Gerbang Kertosusilo and Kedung Sepur). The presence of agglomeration economies correlates with a significant reduction in the job-education mismatch, with varying effects depending on the area..

就业-教育匹配通过有效的人力资本投资推动包容性增长。在匹配过程中,研究促进就业-教育顺畅流动的因素至关重要。我们研究了集聚如何影响 Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan(SMK)职业中学 101,748 名就业毕业生的就业教育不匹配问题。中等职业学校毕业生是印尼失业的主要原因。数据来自2017年至2019年进行的全国劳动力调查(Sakernas)。这项研究揭示了三种不同类型的工作-教育不匹配:(1)受教育程度过高的工人(受教育程度超过工作要求);(2)横向不匹配的工人(技能与工作要求不符);(3)既受教育程度过高又横向不匹配的工人,这定义了真正的不匹配。采用工作分析方法,确定了 SMK 毕业生中 13.58%的过度教育发生率和 61.58%的横向不匹配发生率。这些毕业生中有一半以上从事缺乏必要技能的工作。通过评估这两类工作与教育不匹配的情况,我们确定有 10.13%的人属于真正的不匹配工人。这些工人同时承受着水平错配和过度教育的巨大挑战。在处理内生性和样本选择偏差的过程中,我们发现,城市群积极促进了职业与教育之间的匹配过程。每平方公里增加 100 名工人,过度教育的概率降低了 0.15%,水平错配降低了 0.19%,实际错配降低了 0.1%。与爪哇岛地区(Jabodetabek、Gerbang Kertosusilo 和 Kedung Sepur)相比,爪哇岛以外的印尼集聚区(Mebidangro 和 Sarbagita)在降低过度教育、水平错配和实际错配风险方面更为有效。集聚经济的存在与就业-教育错配的显著减少相关联,但不同地区的影响各不相同。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding deforestation in the tropics: post-classification detection using machine learning and probing its driving forces in Katingan, Indonesia 了解热带地区的毁林情况:利用机器学习进行分类后检测并探究印度尼西亚卡廷丹的驱动力
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00330-0
Ramdhani, Bambang H. Trisasongko,  Widiatmaka

Increasing demands for agricultural lands and built-up areas, driven by rapid population growth in developing countries including Indonesia, exacerbates the strain on tropical forests. Therefore, crucial to regular maintenance of forest monitoring is necessary to support sustainable forest management and minimize deforestation. In addition, driving factors of deforestation need to be comprehended and serve as considerations in the development of policies and decision-making. The main objective was to provide an in-depth understanding of the phenomenon of deforestation and its underlying variables in tropical regions, with a case study of Katingan Regency, Indonesia. Machine learning for remote sensing data analysis was integrated to investigate multi-temporal land cover in scouting deforestation and its driving factors. We found that the performance of random forests (RF) in all experimental settings was generally superior to support vector machines (SVM), achieving the best overall accuracy of 0.95. Land cover change analysis in the Katingan Regency (covering 2.04 M ha) suggested total deforestation during 2004−2022 of approximately 247.108 ha, an average of almost 14 thousand ha per year. Logistic regression showed that selected predictors significantly influenced the occurrence of deforestation. Non-forest areas devised a greater likelihood of deforestation than designated forest areas. Protected areas acted as an agent to minimize and impede regional deforestation. Meanwhile the probability of deforestation was greater on the outside of forest concession areas. We conclude that efforts to prevent deforestation need to be elevated, particularly in open-access production forests, characterized by high accessibility. In addition, the protection of the remaining forests, especially in non-forest designated areas, needs to be accommodated in regional spatial planning policies.

在包括印度尼西亚在内的发展中国家人口快速增长的推动下,对农业用地和建筑区的需求不断增加,加剧了对热带森林的压力。因此,为支持可持续森林管理并最大限度地减少毁林现象,定期维护森林监测至关重要。此外,还需要了解森林砍伐的驱动因素,并将其作为制定政策和决策的考虑因素。该研究的主要目的是深入了解热带地区的森林砍伐现象及其潜在变量,并以印度尼西亚卡廷安地区为案例进行研究。研究结合了遥感数据分析的机器学习,以调查多时土地覆盖情况,探究森林砍伐及其驱动因素。我们发现,随机森林(RF)在所有实验环境中的表现普遍优于支持向量机(SVM),总体准确率达到 0.95。卡廷安地区(面积为 204 万公顷)的土地覆被变化分析表明,2004-2022 年期间的森林砍伐总量约为 247108 公顷,平均每年近 1.4 万公顷。Logistic 回归表明,选定的预测因素对毁林发生率有显著影响。与指定林区相比,非林区发生毁林的可能性更大。保护区起到了最大限度减少和阻止区域毁林的作用。与此同时,森林特许区以外的地区发生毁林的可能性更大。我们的结论是,需要加大力度防止森林砍伐,尤其是在以高可达性为特点的开放式生产林中。此外,保护剩余森林,特别是在非森林指定区域,需要纳入区域空间规划政策。
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引用次数: 0
Economic analysis of China’s grain for green policy: theory and evidence 中国粮食绿色政策的经济分析:理论与证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00331-z
Chenghua Jin, Masahiro Yabuta

First phase of the grain for green (GFG) policy, one of the China’s forest policies, was implemented in the late 1990s and ended in 2012. The first phase of the GFG policy was successful from a macro perspective, although there were some failures. Based on these outcomes, the second phase of the GFG policy was implemented from 2014 to 2020. This study used panel data to develop an empirical land use model and conduct a comparative static analysis focusing on the GFG policy. Results of the static analysis confirmed factors that affect GFG for the years 2002–2018. In addition, differences in the explanatory variables between the first (2002–2012) and second periods (2014–2018) were determined. Furthermore, differences in GFG subsidies between the northern and southern provinces in the first phase were analyzed for their effects on a reforestation area. The main results revealed that the amount of investment in GFG and rural livelihood security had a positive effect on the expansion of the area of GFG. In addition, the amount of investment in GFG was more effective during the second period than the first period.

粮食换绿色(GFG)政策第一阶段是中国的森林政策之一,于 20 世纪 90 年代末开始实施,并于 2012 年结束。从宏观角度看,粮食换绿色政策第一阶段取得了成功,但也存在一些失败之处。在此基础上,2014 年至 2020 年实施了全球森林小组政策的第二阶段。本研究利用面板数据建立了一个实证土地利用模型,并以 GFG 政策为重点进行了比较静态分析。静态分析的结果证实了 2002-2018 年期间影响 GFG 的因素。此外,还确定了第一阶段(2002-2012 年)和第二阶段(2014-2018 年)之间解释变量的差异。此外,还分析了第一阶段北方省和南方省之间 GFG 补贴的差异对造林面积的影响。主要结果显示,对全球森林增长和农村生活保障的投资额对全球森林增长面积的扩大有积极影响。此外,与第一阶段相比,第二阶段的全球森林增长投资额更有效。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science
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