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Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: new evidence from the autoregressive distributed lag approach 气候变化对印度农业的影响:自回归分布滞后法的新证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00327-1
Mohammad Azhar Ud Din, Shaukat Haseen

Climate change constitutes one of the most critical challenges of the contemporary period and can affect various sectors of economies across the globe, the agricultural sector is not an exception. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on India’s agricultural sector from 1990 to 2020. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was utilized to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, temperature, energy utilization, and fertilizer consumption. The ARDL method and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test both supported the existence of a significant and long relationship among the selected variables. The estimated short- and long-run findings showed that carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), temperature, and energy consumption affect agricultural yield positively and significantly. These findings have several implications for the Indian economy. With a large population dependent on agriculture, improved productivity can directly impact food security and rural income, consequently leading to the country’s overall economic development. Enhanced agricultural output due to these factors may potentially lead to surplus production, allowing India to export more agricultural produce. This can positively impact the country’s trade balance and generate revenue through exports.

气候变化是当代最严峻的挑战之一,会影响全球各经济部门,农业部门也不例外。本研究旨在评估 1990 年至 2020 年气候变化对印度农业部门的影响。研究采用了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法来确定二氧化碳排放、气温、能源利用和化肥消耗等变量之间的短期和长期关系。ARDL 方法和 Johansen 与 Juselius 协整检验都支持所选变量之间存在显著的长期关系。估计的短期和长期结果显示,二氧化碳排放(CO2)、温度和能源消耗对农业产量有积极和显著的影响。这些发现对印度经济有若干影响。印度有大量人口依赖农业,生产率的提高会直接影响粮食安全和农村收入,从而促进国家的整体经济发展。由于这些因素而提高的农业产量有可能导致生产过剩,使印度能够出口更多的农产品。这将对印度的贸易平衡产生积极影响,并通过出口创收。
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引用次数: 0
Regional decline and structural changes in Northeast China: an exploratory space–time approach 中国东北地区的衰落与结构变化:一种探索性的时空方法
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00328-0
Yilin Chen

Literature on New Economic Geography (NEG) highlights the importance of spatial concentration and spillover effects in economic growth or decline. Northeast China, as an old industrial base, is experiencing a regional decline since its transition to the post-industrial stage. Therefore, what is the main sectoral composition in Northeast China and how does this influence regional decline? To what extent do spatial spillovers play a role before and during the regional decline of Northeast China? Based on these questions, we investigated the spatial connections between regional decline and structural changes in Northeast China over three development periods: Rust Belt (1995–2002), revival (2002–2015), and decline (2015–2019). The recent exploratory space–time data analysis was employed on prefecture-level income and its structural change components (sectoral output and employment ratio). We found that the possible reason for the regional decline in Northeast China is premature deindustrialisation. Spatial co-decline in the employment of industry and construction, the primary source of regional decline, facilitates most of the space–time patterns of the regional income. Agglomeration of the agricultural sector has shifted to the north, while industry and construction have gravitated towards the middle and south, with no clear spatial patterns in the service sector. Dependence on natural resources has a "lock-in effect" that inhibits the transition from industry to services, so industry and construction remain the most efficient in Northeast China. Strengthening spatial connections is essential for local governments to develop service sectors and overcome declining conditions.

有关新经济地理学(NEG)的文献强调了空间集聚和溢出效应在经济增长或衰退中的重要性。作为老工业基地的中国东北地区,在向后工业化阶段过渡后,正经历着区域衰退。因此,中国东北地区的主要产业构成是什么,这对地区衰退有何影响?空间溢出效应在东北地区衰落之前和衰落过程中发挥了多大作用?基于这些问题,我们研究了中国东北地区在三个发展时期的区域衰退与结构变化之间的空间联系:锈带(1995-2002 年)、复兴(2002-2015 年)和衰退(2015-2019 年)。我们采用了最新的探索性时空数据分析方法,对县级收入及其结构变化成分(部门产出和就业率)进行了分析。我们发现,东北地区收入下降的可能原因是过早的去工业化。作为地区衰退的主要原因,工业和建筑业就业在空间上的共同衰退促进了地区收入的大部分时空模式。农业部门的集聚向北部转移,而工业和建筑业则向中部和南部倾斜,服务业没有明显的空间模式。对自然资源的依赖产生了 "锁定效应",抑制了工业向服务业的转型,因此工业和建筑业仍然是中国东北地区效率最高的行业。加强空间联系是地方政府发展服务业、克服颓势的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Lights and the Invisibles: towards a regional/sector-wise policy approach exploring India’s economy–environment trade-offs 灯光与隐形:探索印度经济与环境权衡的地区/部门政策方法
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00326-2
Monica Jaison, Althaf Shajahan

Air pollution mitigation strategies are either global or national. In this study, we highlight the need for regional/sector-wise mitigation strategies. We first explored the relationship between economic activity (measured using Nighttime Lights) and air quality for India (and Norway as a comparative reference) employing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Second, we focused on the need to shift from global/national-level air pollution mitigation policies to geoclimatic region-wise policy implementation in developing nations with significant economic and physical geography heterogeneity. We considered regional/sector-wise differences in the economic activity–air quality relationship, thereby aiding future policy action in these regions/sectors. We used a panel econometric research design on geospatial variables extracted from the Google Earth Engine. We investigated causality using an Instrument Variable strategy. Economic activity in Norway led to improved air quality, while India is still far from an inverted U-shaped EKC. An inverted U-shaped EKC existed for BIMARU (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) states after accounting for transboundary pollution. Transport and industrial sectors were significant contributors to air pollution in India, with Nitrogen Dioxide concentrations highest in the Central, Western, and Eastern regions. At the same time, West India was no longer a Sulfur Dioxide polluting hub. Export hubs were sources of Nitrogen Dioxide pollution, while the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors were characterized by Carbon Monoxide and Sulfur Dioxide emissions. Given the geographical heterogeneities, global/national intervention policies may not solve the underlying problem anymore. Alternatively, shifting to a decentralized approach involving source-level interventions is the need of the hour.

空气污染减缓战略要么是全球性的,要么是全国性的。在本研究中,我们强调了地区/部门缓解战略的必要性。首先,我们利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)探讨了印度(以及作为比较参照的挪威)的经济活动(使用夜间照明测量)与空气质量之间的关系。其次,我们重点关注了在经济和自然地理差异显著的发展中国家,从全球/国家层面的空气污染减缓政策转向地理气候区域政策实施的必要性。我们考虑了经济活动与空气质量关系中的地区/部门差异,从而为这些地区/部门未来的政策行动提供帮助。我们对从谷歌地球引擎中提取的地理空间变量采用了面板计量经济学研究设计。我们采用工具变量策略研究了因果关系。挪威的经济活动导致了空气质量的改善,而印度距离倒 U 型 EKC 还很遥远。在考虑跨境污染后,BIMARU(比哈尔邦、中央邦、拉贾斯坦邦和北方邦)存在倒 U 型 EKC。运输和工业部门是造成印度空气污染的主要因素,其中中部、西部和东部地区的二氧化氮浓度最高。同时,印度西部不再是二氧化硫污染中心。出口中心是二氧化氮的污染源,而第一、第二和第三产业则以一氧化碳和二氧化硫排放为特征。鉴于地域差异,全球/国家干预政策可能无法解决根本问题。或者,当务之急是转而采取分散的方法,包括源头一级的干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring office attendance during the COVID-19 pandemic with mobility data to quantify local trends and characteristics 利用流动性数据衡量 COVID-19 大流行期间的办公室出勤率,以量化地方趋势和特点
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00324-4
Makoto Sakuma, Kazushi Matsuo, Morito Tsutsumi, Toyokazu Imazeki

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the work-from-home trend, with significant variations in location, industry and firm size. These shifts have significantly affected economies and societies but traditional data cannot be easily tracked. This paper presents a method for measuring office attendance and examines its trends and characteristics. To this end, we first introduced the working-at-office ratio, which is the percentage of people going to an office compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, considering 74 office submarkets in six major Japanese cities. We captured mobility trends in office buildings using rich Global Positioning System-based mobile location data combined with specific office location data. Subsequently, we demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed indicators by comparing them with other mobility data and office attendance indicators. Finally, we examined the relationships between the working-at-office ratio and the characteristics of the office buildings and tenants in each submarket. The findings indicated that factors, such as the proportion of large buildings, concentration of specific sectors, and tenant size, were significantly related to office attendance, with these relationships evolving over the duration of the pandemic. Our approach provides real-time, granular insights into office attendance trends, which are crucial for anticipating future work paradigms.

COVID-19 大流行加速了在家工作的趋势,在地点、行业和公司规模方面存在显著差异。这些变化对经济和社会产生了重大影响,但传统数据却不易追踪。本文提出了一种测量办公室出勤率的方法,并研究了其趋势和特点。为此,我们首先引入了在办公室工作的比例,即与 COVID-19 前相比,到办公室工作的人数所占的百分比,并考虑了日本 6 个主要城市的 74 个办公楼子市场。我们利用基于全球定位系统的丰富移动定位数据,结合具体的办公地点数据,捕捉到了办公楼的流动趋势。随后,我们将所提出的指标与其他流动性数据和办公室出勤率指标进行了比较,从而证明了这些指标的有效性。最后,我们研究了每个子市场中的办公室在职率与办公楼和租户特征之间的关系。研究结果表明,大型建筑的比例、特定行业的集中度和租户规模等因素与办公出勤率有显著关系,这些关系随着大流行病的持续时间而不断变化。我们的方法提供了对办公室出勤率趋势的实时、精细洞察,这对预测未来的工作模式至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Technological paths and smart specialization: analysis of regional entry and exit in Turkey 技术路径和智能专业化:对土耳其地区进入和退出的分析
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00325-3
Mert Abay, Sedef Akgüngör

Smart specialization (SS) strategy emerged as a policy framework within the European Union’s (EU) regional policies, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. Although a wide range of literature on smart specialization exists, there is limited empirical evidence on how the SS framework correlates with regional entrance and exit of technologies. Moreover, little is known about the connection between SS variables and technological growth paths, particularly in the context of a developing country. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between two building blocks of SS (relatedness and complexity) on technological trajectories in a developing country. Using regional patent data for Turkey’s regions at the NUTS3 level between 1978 and 2017, the study investigated patterns of regional trajectories by exploring how entry and exit are correlated within the SS framework. GDP per capita, population, the number of universities and techno-parks, Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, and complexity of regions were included in the study as control variables. The results showed that technological complexity is negatively correlated with the probability of entry, and positively correlated with the probability of exit. The results also revealed the role of technological relatedness as a tool to attract new and complementary technologies to a region. However, correlations between relatedness and probability of entry are weakened as the number of universities and techno-parks increases in a region, while the correlations between complexity and exit are enhanced, particularly with the presence of universities.

智能专业化(SS)战略是欧盟(EU)区域政策中的一个政策框架,尤其是在 2008 年金融危机之后。虽然已有大量关于智能专业化的文献,但关于智能专业化框架如何与地区技术进入和退出相关联的经验证据却很有限。此外,人们对智能专业化变量与技术增长路径之间的联系知之甚少,尤其是在发展中国家的背景下。本研究旨在调查 SS 的两个组成部分(关联性和复杂性)与发展中国家技术轨迹之间的相关性。本研究利用 1978 年至 2017 年期间土耳其 NUTS3 级别的地区专利数据,通过探索 SS 框架内进入和退出之间的相关性,研究了地区轨迹的模式。研究将人均国内生产总值、人口、大学和科技园数量、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数以及地区复杂性作为控制变量。研究结果表明,技术复杂性与企业进入的概率呈负相关,而与企业退出的概率呈正相关。研究结果还揭示了技术关联性作为吸引新技术和互补技术进入一个地区的工具所发挥的作用。然而,随着一个地区大学和科技园数量的增加,相关性与进入概率之间的相关性减弱,而复杂性与退出之间的相关性增强,特别是随着大学的存在。
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引用次数: 0
Regional convergence of total factor productivity in Japanese industries: evidence from the twenty-first century industry data 日本工业全要素生产率的地区趋同:来自 21 世纪工业数据的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00323-5
Akihiro Otsuka

Innovation and technological progress are crucial to the sustainability of regional economies. Assessing the role of the spatial dimension in the innovation process and evaluating the convergence of regional disparities in technological levels encompasses a vital research endeavor. The significance of this research effort lies in the fact that the convergence of economic disparities can be accelerated or impeded depending on the innovation process, that is, whether regional disparities in technological levels decrease or increase over time. This study provides new insights into regional disparities of total factor productivity (TFP) in Japan using a new method, the stochastic convergence model. The stochastic convergence model allows determination of the long-term stationarity in the convergence of disparities, which has been challenging in conventional analyses. In this study, we first evaluated the technological level of regional industries by measuring industry-specific TFP. Then, we verified the convergence of disparities in TFP among regions using a stochastic convergence model. The analysis results showed that TFP is rising with narrowing of regional disparities, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, TFP converged to steady-state levels in each region, revealing the importance of the regional production environment in innovation. The results of this study provide important implications for developing strategies to enhance the sustainability of regional economies.

创新和技术进步对区域经济的可持续性至关重要。评估空间维度在创新过程中的作用以及评价区域技术水平差距的趋同性是一项重要的研究工作。这项研究工作的意义在于,经济差距的收敛可能会因创新进程而加快,也可能会因创新进程而受阻,也就是说,地区技术水平差距会随着时间的推移而缩小还是扩大。本研究采用随机收敛模型这一新方法,对日本全要素生产率(TFP)的地区差距进行了深入研究。随机收敛模型可以确定差距收敛的长期静止性,而这在传统分析中是具有挑战性的。在本研究中,我们首先通过测量特定行业的全要素生产率来评估地区产业的技术水平。然后,我们利用随机收敛模型验证了地区间全要素生产率差距的收敛性。分析结果表明,全要素生产率随着地区差距的缩小而上升,尤其是在制造业。此外,各地区的全要素生产率都趋同于稳态水平,揭示了地区生产环境在创新中的重要性。这项研究的结果为制定增强区域经济可持续性的战略提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
International efficiency evaluation of education and impacts of bullying: a value inversion–data envelopment analysis approach 国际教育效率评估和欺凌的影响:价值反转--数据包络分析法
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00320-8
Kouhei Kikuchi, Soushi Suzuki, Peter Nijkamp

Education plays a vital role in the development of any country or region, making it imperative to address obstacles that hinder educational quality such as school bullying. This is an under-researched topic in the social sciences. Bullying is a form of social mistreatment that may have detrimental effects, because students who experience frequent bullying tend to perform poorer compared to their peers who do not report such incidents. Given this evidence, it is crucial to assess the educational performance of countries by considering the overall well-being, including mental well-being, of students. In this context, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a valuable method for evaluating the performance of decision-making units in education. In our paper, we discuss various approaches to apply DEA when dealing with "undesirable" outputs like bullying. Common techniques involve transforming undesirable outputs using reciprocal transformations and employing a "bad-output" model. However, these methods have several drawbacks, such as altering the nature of the selected output items, loss of linearity, reduced robustness of the efficiency frontier, and limited versatility. To address these concerns, our paper proposes and tests a value inversion–DEA model that can consistently transform "undesirable" data into a reverse measurement scale, while preserving linearity. We demonstrate the high versatility of this model across different types of DEA models with undesirable outputs. Furthermore, we apply this proposed method to assess the educational efficiency of OECD countries, focusing on bullying as an undesirable output. Our findings show that significant improvements in performance are possible in many countries by addressing school bullying.

教育在任何国家或地区的发展中都起着至关重要的作用,因此必须解决阻碍教育质量的障碍,如校园欺凌。这是一个社会科学研究不足的课题。欺凌是一种可能产生有害影响的社会虐待形式,因为经常遭受欺凌的学生与没有报告此类事件的同龄人相比,学习成绩往往较差。有鉴于此,通过考虑学生的整体福祉(包括心理福祉)来评估各国的教育表现至关重要。在这方面,数据包络分析(DEA)是评估教育决策单位绩效的重要方法。在本文中,我们讨论了在处理欺凌等 "不良 "产出时应用 DEA 的各种方法。常见的技术包括利用互变对不良产出进行转换,以及采用 "不良产出 "模型。然而,这些方法有几个缺点,如改变所选产出项目的性质、失去线性、效率边界的稳健性降低以及通用性有限。为了解决这些问题,我们的论文提出并测试了一种价值反转-DEA 模型,该模型可以持续地将 "不可取 "数据转化为反向衡量尺度,同时保持线性。我们展示了该模型在不同类型的具有不良输出的 DEA 模型中的高度通用性。此外,我们还将这一建议方法用于评估经合组织国家的教育效率,重点关注作为不良产出的欺凌问题。我们的研究结果表明,在许多国家,通过解决校园欺凌问题,可以显著提高教育绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Correction: The volatility connectedness between fertilizers and rice price: evidences from the global major rice-producing countries 更正:化肥与大米价格之间的波动关联:来自全球主要大米生产国的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00322-6
Harun Uçak, Irfan Ullah, Yakup Ari
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of enhancing regional network economies on regional productivity and productive efficiency in Japan: evaluation from stochastic frontier analysis 加强地区网络经济对日本地区生产力和生产效率的影响:随机前沿分析评估
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00321-7
Akihiro Otsuka

With the advancement of technology and advent of a networked society, economic agents within a region benefit from local interactions within the region as well as the external economies. However, strengthening extra-regional ties may have negative consequences for regions near the center if all their economic resources are absorbed by the core. It is unclear, for regional economic agents, whether the negative network externalities dominate the positive ones. This has not been fully elucidated in the previous studies. To contribute to a breakthrough for this research topic, this study identified the impacts of network externalities on improvements in productivity and productive efficiency using stochastic frontier analysis. The analysis revealed that the borrowed size effect of agglomeration in the manufacturing industry significantly raises total factor productivity through shifts in the production frontier. It also revealed that the shadow effect of agglomeration does not adversely affect the productive efficiency of industry in either the manufacturing or non-manufacturing sector. These results imply that enhancing quality transportation infrastructure and improving inter-regional transportation networks can enhance the production performance of regional industries.

随着技术的进步和网络化社会的到来,区域内的经济主体可以从区域内的地方互动以及外部经济中获益。然而,如果中心附近地区的所有经济资源都被核心地区吸收,那么加强区域外联系可能会对这些地区产生负面影响。对于区域经济行为主体来说,网络的负外部性是否会主导正外部性,目前还不清楚。以往的研究尚未充分阐明这一点。为了突破这一研究课题,本研究采用随机前沿分析法确定了网络外部性对提高生产率和生产效率的影响。分析表明,制造业集聚的借用规模效应通过生产前沿的移动显著提高了全要素生产率。分析还显示,集聚的影子效应不会对制造业或非制造业的生产效率产生不利影响。这些结果表明,加强高质量的交通基础设施和改善区域间交通网络可以提高区域产业的生产绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Government spending and regional poverty alleviation: evidence from Egypt 政府支出与地区减贫:来自埃及的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00318-2
Dina N. Elshahawany, Ramy H. Elazhary

Poverty is a major socio-economic problem facing most developing countries. In Egypt, approximately 30% of citizens live below the poverty level, which is more evident at the regional level. Reducing poverty can be achieved through better allocation of government spending, because it is essential for promoting economic growth, improving income distribution and reducing poverty. Understanding the relationships between government spending and regional poverty reduction can enhance the ability of policymakers to design programs that effectively reduce regional poverty and lessen income inequality. This study aimed to analyze the impact of government spending in alleviating regional poverty in Egypt. A panel data set for 27 Egyptian governorates from 2010 to 2018 was employed. The two-way fixed effect regression model was used to apply the differences between regions over time. The results showed that only social government spending significantly affects poverty reduction at the national level. Health, education and social government spending showed significant negative impacts on poverty at the region level, especially in Upper Egypt and Cairo.

贫困是大多数发展中国家面临的主要社会经济问题。在埃及,约有 30% 的公民生活在贫困线以下,这在地区层面更为明显。减少贫困可以通过更好地分配政府支出来实现,因为这对促进经济增长、改善收入分配和减少贫困至关重要。了解政府支出与地区减贫之间的关系,可以提高政策制定者设计方案的能力,从而有效减少地区贫困和收入不平等。本研究旨在分析政府支出对减轻埃及地区贫困的影响。研究采用了 2010 年至 2018 年埃及 27 个省的面板数据集。采用双向固定效应回归模型来应用地区间随时间变化的差异。结果显示,只有社会政府支出对国家层面的减贫有显著影响。在地区层面,卫生、教育和社会政府支出对贫困产生了显著的负面影响,尤其是在上埃及和开罗。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science
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