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Too Much Development or Not Enough Democracy? Exploring an Anomaly in the Democratization of Post-Communist Countries 发展太多还是民主不够?探索后共产主义国家民主化进程中的反常现象
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i3.4097
Alo Raun
This study of 28 post-communist regimes distinguishes a group of countries significantly less democratic than predicted by its very high Human Development Index score: Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. It also appears that, contrary to theoretical assumptions, such ‘developed dictatorships’ convert their economic growth into human development remarkably well. To measure such conversion, a new tool, the Growth Conversion Index is introduced. Considering these results, the explanatory power of several theories is briefly examined. While some theories imply possible explanations (e.g., the concept of patronal politics and the conditional approach to resource dependence), none of them discloses sufficiently the actual workings of such conversion mechanism, implying the need for more in-depth studies.
这项对 28 个后共产主义政权的研究发现,有一类国家的民主程度明显低于其极高的人类发展指数:这些国家是:俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和白俄罗斯。此外,与理论假设相反,这些 "发达独裁政权 "将其经济增长很好地转化为人类发展。为了衡量这种转换,我们引入了一种新的工具--增长转换指数。考虑到这些结果,我们对几种理论的解释力进行了简要研究。虽然一些理论暗示了可能的解释(如庇护政治的概念和资源依赖的条件方法),但它们都没有充分揭示这种转换机制的实际运作,这意味着需要进行更深入的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Not Supposed to be Born? 不该出生?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i3.4034
A. Schwartz, Christabelle Sethna, Danielle Lyn Carron
Drawing from two published literary narratives, the German wartime diary by Anonymous, A Woman in Berlin, and the novel based on women’s testimonies of war rape and unwanted pregnancies in Bosnia by Slavenka Drakulić, S.: A Novel About the Balkans, in addition to published testimonies and unpublished interview data by now young adult (in the case of Bosnia) and elderly (in the case of Germany) children born of war rape (CBOWR), this article examines the intergenerational impact of wartime sexual violence. Applying feminist narrative analysis, the authors demonstrate the situation of “impossible motherhood” and experiences of children who were not supposed to be born. The article focuses on the narrative process marked by trauma but also by agency and resilience so as to challenge dominant stories of war and unwanted pregnancy following rape in armed conflict. The authors propose a resolution of tensions around the ethnic identity of CBOWR along their maternal lineage rather than the imposition of the paternal heritage of the enemy.
本文从两部已出版的文学叙事--德国无名氏的战时日记《柏林的一个女人》和斯拉文卡-德拉库利奇(Slavenka Drakulić)根据波斯尼亚妇女关于战争强奸和意外怀孕的证词创作的小说《S.:关于巴尔干半岛的小说》--以及已出版的证词和未出版的由战争强奸所生子女(波斯尼亚)和老年子女(德国)的访谈资料中,研究了战时性暴力的代际影响。作者运用女权主义叙事分析法,展示了 "不可能成为母亲 "的情况以及本不该出生的儿童的经历。文章的重点是以创伤为标志的叙事过程,但同时也是以能动性和复原力为标志的叙事过程,从而挑战关于战争和武装冲突中强奸后意外怀孕的主流故事。作者建议按照母系血统而不是敌人的父系血统来解决与 CBOWR 族裔身份有关的紧张关系。
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引用次数: 0
Emergency Power in Hungary and the COVID-19 匈牙利的紧急权力和 COVID-19
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i3.3727
Attila Antal
We live in an era of overlapping states of exceptions: the climate and ecological emergency, the permanent crisis of global capitalism, the migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on the Hungarian political regime, this paper investigates how and why exceptional measures restructure our life. It can be argued that the main outcome of the exceptional measures is the rise of a new executive power, and it is demonstrated how heavily authoritarian regimes rely on the state of exception. It has been argued here that behind the strengthening of the emergency power there is the new rise of unlimited executive power, which is nothing more than the legal and political fulfilment of two-thirds majority power. Upon the case of the permanent state of exception of the Orbán regime, it can be said that the COVID-19 as an epidemiological crisis cannot be traced back to the Orbán administration, but the executive power has found a way to create a new political crisis based on the epidemic. The paper briefly discusses the impact of the 2022 Hungarian national election campaign period and the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 on the Hungarian emergency powers.
我们生活在一个例外状态重叠的时代:气候和生态紧急情况、全球资本主义的长期危机、移民危机、COVID-19 大流行病。本文以匈牙利的政治体制为基础,探讨了例外措施如何以及为何重组我们的生活。可以说,非常措施的主要结果是新的行政权力的崛起,并证明了专制政权对非常状态的严重依赖。本文认为,在加强紧急权力的背后,是新的无限行政权的崛起,这只不过是三分之二多数权力在法律和政治上的实现。就欧尔班政权的永久例外状态而言,可以说 COVID-19 作为一种流行病危机并不能追溯到欧尔班政府,但行政权力却找到了在流行病的基础上制造新的政治危机的方法。本文简要讨论了 2022 年匈牙利全国大选竞选期和 2022 年 2 月俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略对匈牙利紧急权力的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Bo Petersson, The Putin Predicament: Problems of Legitimacy and Succession in Russia Bo Petersson,《普京的困境》:俄罗斯的合法性和继承问题
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i3.4479
Sofya du Boulay
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引用次数: 0
No Great Russia without Greater Russia 没有大俄罗斯就没有大俄罗斯
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.4148
T. Casier
This paper argues that to understand the invasion of Ukraine, we need to have better insights into the Kremlin’s particular world view and Russia’s place within it. This view is based on a sense of entitlement to great power status, going hand in hand with an identity of itself as a country that extends beyond the actual borders of the Russian Federation. What makes the position unique is that the geopolitical and identity arguments are inseparable: in the Kremlin’s world view, Russia can only be a great power if it also exists as greater Russia. This structural factor is labelled the geopolitics-identity nexus. To explain why the invasion happened in 2022, three additional process factors are outlined: a radicalisation of the view of Ukraine as Russian lands, driven by the feeling of existential crisis when tensions over Ukraine escalated in 2014; an escalation of policy options resulting from consecutive failures in Russia’s Ukraine policy; and a reversal of the argument that Russia has to be a great power to exist within its 1991 borders into an argument that Russia has to expand its territory to be a great power.
本文认为,要理解乌克兰的入侵,我们需要更好地了解克里姆林宫的特殊世界观以及俄罗斯在其中的地位。这种观点的基础是一种大国地位的权利感,以及对自身作为一个超越俄罗斯联邦实际边界的国家的认同。这一立场的独特之处在于,地缘政治和身份认同的论点是不可分割的:在克里姆林宫的世界观中,俄罗斯只有作为大俄罗斯而存在,才能成为大国。这一结构性因素被称为 "地缘政治-身份关系"。为了解释为什么 2022 年发生了入侵事件,本文概述了另外三个过程性因素:2014 年乌克兰紧张局势升级时,存在危机感导致将乌克兰视为俄罗斯领土的观点激进化;俄罗斯乌克兰政策连续失败导致政策选择升级;俄罗斯必须成为大国才能在其 1991 年边界内存在的论点逆转为俄罗斯必须扩大领土才能成为大国的论点。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction: The Ukraine War: A Paradigm Shift in EU-Russian Relations? 导言:乌克兰战争:欧盟与俄罗斯关系的范式转变?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.4147
Joan DeBardeleben
An introduction to the special issue.
特刊导言。
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引用次数: 0
The Linguistic Factor in the Deterrence Conversation between Russia and the West: If and How Russians Understand the Meaning of “Deterrence?” 俄罗斯与西方之间威慑对话中的语言因素:俄罗斯人是否以及如何理解 "威慑 "的含义?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.4105
Liia Vihmand-Veebel, Viljar Veebel
Given Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine and its hostile remarks toward its NATO neighbours, the question of why the credible deterrence posture of the Alliance is not producing the desired results is becoming increasingly important. Either Russian political leaders do not want to comply with the Western credible deterrence posture, or they do not understand what is expected from them. Linguistic factors (e.g., the ‘lost in translation’ effect) affect the effectiveness of the conversation on deterrence between Russia and the West, including NATO. The Russian language does not have one unambiguous equivalent for the Western term “deterrence.” There are several possible translations for deterrence in Russian, including sderzhivaniye, ustrasheniye, sderzhivaniye putem ustrasheniya, sderzhivaniye prinuzhdeniyem, as well as others. These terms are not synonymous, with each having its own different meaning and some being used in Russian military-political theory, where they refer to different concepts. The current study focuses on the most visible linguistic complications in the deterrence dialogue between Russia and the West. Based on the current study, it would often be more reasonable to talk to the Russian political and military elite about containment or coercion, which are more common and have clear, specific meanings in Russian.
鉴于俄罗斯在乌克兰的侵略行动及其对北约邻国的敌对言论,联盟的可信威慑态势为何没有产生预期效果的问题变得越来越重要。要么是俄罗斯政治领导人不想遵守西方的可信威慑态势,要么是他们不理解对他们的期望。语言因素(如 "翻译遗失 "效应)影响了俄罗斯与包括北约在内的西方国家之间威慑对话的效果。俄语中没有一个明确对应的西方术语 "威慑"。俄语中的威慑有几种可能的译法,包括 sderzhivaniye、ustrasheniye、sderzhivaniye putem ustrasheniya、sderzhivaniye prinuzhdeniyem 以及其他。这些术语并非同义词,每个术语都有自己不同的含义,有些术语在俄罗斯军事政治理论中使用,但它们指的是不同的概念。本次研究的重点是俄罗斯与西方之间威慑对话中最明显的语言复杂性。根据目前的研究,与俄罗斯政治和军事精英谈论遏制或胁迫往往更为合理,因为这两个词在俄语中更为常见,并有明确、具体的含义。
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引用次数: 0
NATO and the CSDP after the Ukraine War: The End of European Strategic Autonomy? 乌克兰战争后的北约和 CSDP:欧洲战略自治的终结?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.4150
Luca Ratti
Abstract The paper debates the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the relationship between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). It argues that the invasion has changed dramatically Europe’s security landscape, carrying major implications for both organizations and their relationship. After its withdrawal from Afghanistan and deepening frictions between the US and its European allies about burden-sharing, the war instilled a new sense of purpose into NATO, placing renewed emphasis on its core functions of territorial defense and deterrence. However, the war was also a reality check for the EU, raising important questions about the future of the European security architecture, the Union’s role within it, and its relationship with NATO (hereafter also referred to as the Alliance). The aim of this article is to try to answer some of these questions, by providing an initial assessment of the impact of the war on the relationship between NATO and the CSDP, and to sketch out potential avenues for strengthening the EU’s role in transatlantic security. More specifically, the paper will try to answer the following questions: what are the implications of the conflict on the Alliance? How did the war impact on the CSDP and the Union’s aspiration to strategic autonomy? Where is EU-NATO cooperation heading as a result of the war? Will the conflict ramp up cooperation between the two organizations or will European defence efforts be channelled mostly through NATO? Will EU leaders grab the momentum created by the war to further institutional integration also in security and defence and or will the war turn into another missed opportunity to promote a more effective burden-sharing in transatlantic security?
摘要 本文讨论了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对北大西洋公约组织(北约)和欧盟共同安全与防务政策(CSDP)之间关系的影响。文章认为,俄罗斯的入侵极大地改变了欧洲的安全格局,对这两个组织及其关系产生了重大影响。北约从阿富汗撤军后,美国与其欧洲盟国在分担责任方面的摩擦不断加深,战争为北约注入了新的使命感,重新强调了其领土防御和威慑的核心职能。然而,这场战争也是对欧盟的一次现实检验,提出了关于欧洲安全架构的未来、欧盟在其中的角色以及欧盟与北约(以下也称联盟)关系的重要问题。本文旨在通过初步评估战争对北约和 CSDP 之间关系的影响,尝试回答其中的一些问题,并勾勒出加强欧盟在跨大西洋安全中作用的潜在途径。更具体地说,本文将试图回答以下问题:冲突对北约的影响是什么?战争对 CSDP 和欧盟的战略自主愿望有何影响?战争导致欧盟与北约的合作走向何方?冲突是否会加强两个组织之间的合作,还是欧洲的防务努力将主要通过北约进行?欧盟领导人是否会抓住战争带来的势头,进一步推进安全与防务领域的机构一体化?
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引用次数: 0
Implications of the Russian War on Ukraine for Climate Policy and the Geopolitics of Energy 俄罗斯乌克兰战争对气候政策和能源地缘政治的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.2765
M. Schreurs
The February 2022 Russian invasion of the Ukraine has led to radical changes in European energy politics and placed new urgency on plans to expand renewable energy and enhance energy efficiency. The European Union, the United States, and many other states have slapped a series of crippling sanctions on Russia and reduced or completely cut their fossil fuel imports in an effort to stop the cash flow the Kremlin needs to finance its war. Russian fossil fuel is being replaced by imports from other regions while demand has been reduced through energy savings by households and businesses. Putin's aggression against Ukraine has forced Europe to speed up its energy transition, meaning that Russia has unintentionally spurred on European climate policy. China, on the other hand, is deepening its trade ties with Russia, supporting the country by buying more oil and gas. New alliances are forming that will have long-term consequences for the geopolitics of energy and could also affect the potential for further cooperation on climate change globally.
2022 年 2 月,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,导致欧洲能源政治发生巨变,并使扩大可再生能源和提高能源效率的计划变得更加紧迫。欧盟、美国和许多其他国家对俄罗斯实施了一系列严厉制裁,减少或完全削减了化石燃料进口,以阻止克里姆林宫为战争提供资金所需的现金流。俄罗斯的化石燃料正被从其他地区进口的化石燃料所取代,而家庭和企业通过节约能源减少了对化石燃料的需求。普京对乌克兰的侵略迫使欧洲加快能源转型,这意味着俄罗斯无意中推动了欧洲的气候政策。另一方面,中国正在深化与俄罗斯的贸易关系,通过购买更多的石油和天然气来支持俄罗斯。新的联盟正在形成,这将对能源地缘政治产生长期影响,也可能影响全球在气候变化问题上进一步合作的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Russia’s Strategy of Outsuffering and the War in Ukraine 俄罗斯的忍让战略与乌克兰战争
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.22215/cjers.v16i2.4130
Toms Rostoks
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but it has failed to attain its political and military objectives. Since then, Russia has doubled down on its war effort. This article claims that Russia’s decision to continue the war despite initial setbacks and a high number of casualties is the result of using the strategy of ‘outsuffering’ its adversaries. This article explains the origins and instrumentalization of this strategy by Vladimir Putin, as well as its implications for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Russia’s foreign policy more generally, and Russia’s domestic politics. The article concludes that although insensitivity to costs can be an important advantage when states pursue confrontational foreign policy strategies, Russia’s attempts to outsuffer its adversaries in a war of attrition raise questions about the viability of this strategy. Thus, the strategy’s ominous promise for Russia is suffering without end.
俄罗斯于 2022 年 2 月全面入侵乌克兰,但未能实现其政治和军事目标。从那时起,俄罗斯加倍努力进行战争。本文认为,俄罗斯之所以在最初遭受挫折和大量人员伤亡的情况下仍决定继续战争,是因为它采用了 "出气 "对手的战略。本文解释了这一战略的起源和普京对其的利用,以及它对俄罗斯乌克兰战争、俄罗斯外交政策和俄罗斯国内政治的影响。文章的结论是,虽然对成本不敏感可能是国家奉行对抗性外交政策战略时的一个重要优势,但俄罗斯试图在消耗战中压制对手的做法让人质疑这一战略的可行性。因此,该战略对俄罗斯的不祥承诺是无尽的苦难。
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引用次数: 0
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Canadian Journal of European and Russian Studies
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