This research takes the construction companies and supervision units of megaprojects as the research objects and studies safety issues in construction decision-making for megaprojects. Using evolutionary game theory, we construct an evolutionary game model of safety decision-making behavior for construction companies and supervision units based on the bounded rationality assumption. The interaction and dynamic patterns of safety behaviors between the two construction entities are analyzed. Additionally, system dynamics Vensim PLE 10.2.1 software is employed to simulate and analyze the behavior of single entities as well as the impact of exogenous variables on the safety decision-making choices of both units. The research results indicate that positive choices in safety behavior decision-making contribute to enhancing the stability of megaproject construction. Exogenous variables significantly influence the safety behavior decisions of both the construction companies and the supervision units in megaprojects. An increase in cooperation benefits between the two parties fosters their active collaboration in completing mega engineering projects. This research promotes cooperation between construction companies and supervision units during a construction process and provides a reference for the safe and orderly implementation and development of megaprojects.
{"title":"Research on Safety Decision-Making Behavior in Megaprojects","authors":"Xuekelaiti Haiyirete, Xiaochang Gan, Jian Wang","doi":"10.3390/systems12080315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080315","url":null,"abstract":"This research takes the construction companies and supervision units of megaprojects as the research objects and studies safety issues in construction decision-making for megaprojects. Using evolutionary game theory, we construct an evolutionary game model of safety decision-making behavior for construction companies and supervision units based on the bounded rationality assumption. The interaction and dynamic patterns of safety behaviors between the two construction entities are analyzed. Additionally, system dynamics Vensim PLE 10.2.1 software is employed to simulate and analyze the behavior of single entities as well as the impact of exogenous variables on the safety decision-making choices of both units. The research results indicate that positive choices in safety behavior decision-making contribute to enhancing the stability of megaproject construction. Exogenous variables significantly influence the safety behavior decisions of both the construction companies and the supervision units in megaprojects. An increase in cooperation benefits between the two parties fosters their active collaboration in completing mega engineering projects. This research promotes cooperation between construction companies and supervision units during a construction process and provides a reference for the safe and orderly implementation and development of megaprojects.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Seokjoon Oh, Seungyoung Joo, Soohwan Kim, Minkyoung Kim
Research on capturing human mobility patterns for efficient and sustainable urban planning has been widely conducted. However, studies that unveil spatial context beyond macro-level mobility patterns are relatively scarce. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal human meta-mobility patterns with rich context using POI data in Seoul from comprehensive perspectives. As a result, the floating population of Seoul exhibits regular and irregular cyclical mobility patterns on weekdays and weekends, respectively, stemming from the periodicity of the dominant POIs. Additionally, graph construction based on mobility similarity and their regional clustering show clusters vary by POIs but are generally divided into peripheral and central regions of Seoul. This indicates that socioeconomic factors cannot be ignored when understanding human mobility patterns. This helps to provide scientific evidence to support policy recommendations towards greenways and sustainable urban mobility systems, such as quantitative disparity of greenways, qualitative issues of greenways in the central areas, and inequality in cultural consumption. Addressing key considerations through targeted policies could significantly improve the overall quality of life for urban residents. We expect this study to lay the groundwork for future research that aims to understand realistic human mobility patterns with a rich context.
为实现高效和可持续的城市规划而捕捉人类流动模式的研究已广泛开展。然而，除宏观层面的流动模式外，揭示空间背景的研究相对较少。本研究旨在利用首尔的 POI 数据，从综合角度分析具有丰富背景的时空人类元流动模式。结果发现，首尔的流动人口在工作日和周末分别表现出有规律和无规律的周期性流动模式，这源于主要 POI 的周期性。此外，根据流动相似性及其区域聚类构建的图表显示，聚类因目的地而异，但总体上分为首尔外围和中心区域。这表明，在理解人类流动模式时，社会经济因素不容忽视。这有助于为绿道和可持续城市交通系统的政策建议提供科学依据，如绿道的数量差异、中心区绿道的质量问题以及文化消费的不平等。通过有针对性的政策来解决关键问题，可以大大提高城市居民的整体生活质量。我们期望这项研究能为今后的研究奠定基础，从而了解具有丰富背景的现实人类流动模式。
{"title":"Decoding Urban Dynamics: Contextual Insights from Human Meta-Mobility Patterns","authors":"Seokjoon Oh, Seungyoung Joo, Soohwan Kim, Minkyoung Kim","doi":"10.3390/systems12080313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080313","url":null,"abstract":"Research on capturing human mobility patterns for efficient and sustainable urban planning has been widely conducted. However, studies that unveil spatial context beyond macro-level mobility patterns are relatively scarce. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal human meta-mobility patterns with rich context using POI data in Seoul from comprehensive perspectives. As a result, the floating population of Seoul exhibits regular and irregular cyclical mobility patterns on weekdays and weekends, respectively, stemming from the periodicity of the dominant POIs. Additionally, graph construction based on mobility similarity and their regional clustering show clusters vary by POIs but are generally divided into peripheral and central regions of Seoul. This indicates that socioeconomic factors cannot be ignored when understanding human mobility patterns. This helps to provide scientific evidence to support policy recommendations towards greenways and sustainable urban mobility systems, such as quantitative disparity of greenways, qualitative issues of greenways in the central areas, and inequality in cultural consumption. Addressing key considerations through targeted policies could significantly improve the overall quality of life for urban residents. We expect this study to lay the groundwork for future research that aims to understand realistic human mobility patterns with a rich context.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuwei Song, Ruining Ma, Chenxi Lian, Yanan Guo, Shi An
Vaccination is the key to interrupting the transmission of viruses, reducing public health losses, and improving the efficiency of public health emergency management. The implementation of vaccination requires communication between the government and the public, and the participation of multiple subjects. Strengthening the coordination of multiple subjects in the process of vaccination can improve the vaccination rate and broaden its scope. Therefore, from the perspective of inter-organizational interaction, a public health emergency vaccination game model based on health management departments, vaccinologists, and the public was constructed in this study. With the objective of improving the effectiveness of vaccination, the influential factors in a public health emergency vaccination game system and game subjects’ strategy selection were explored using a numerical simulation analysis. The research results showed that the range of vaccination, the diversification of vaccination information release, the level of emergency coordination between health management departments and vaccinologists, and the public’s awareness of emergency protection can all effectively promote vaccination. Among them, the effects of vaccination range (δ) and the diversification of vaccination information release (φ) on game subjects’ strategy selection fluctuated, but did not affect the overall trend. Both the level of emergency collaboration (θ) and public safety awareness (ε) can enhance the initiative of game subjects to participate in vaccination. When the stable strategy combination formed by the game system are positive promotion strategy, active guidance strategy and active vaccination strategy, the convergence rate of health management departments and vaccinologists to form a stable strategy is greater than that of the public. Further, the implications of promoting the effective implementation of vaccination are put forward via improving the vaccination strategy, strengthening vaccination collaboration, mobilizing the enthusiasm of vaccinologists, and enhancing the initiative of the public.
{"title":"How to Effectively Promote Vaccination during Public Health Emergencies: Through Inter-Organizational Interaction","authors":"Yuwei Song, Ruining Ma, Chenxi Lian, Yanan Guo, Shi An","doi":"10.3390/systems12080312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080312","url":null,"abstract":"Vaccination is the key to interrupting the transmission of viruses, reducing public health losses, and improving the efficiency of public health emergency management. The implementation of vaccination requires communication between the government and the public, and the participation of multiple subjects. Strengthening the coordination of multiple subjects in the process of vaccination can improve the vaccination rate and broaden its scope. Therefore, from the perspective of inter-organizational interaction, a public health emergency vaccination game model based on health management departments, vaccinologists, and the public was constructed in this study. With the objective of improving the effectiveness of vaccination, the influential factors in a public health emergency vaccination game system and game subjects’ strategy selection were explored using a numerical simulation analysis. The research results showed that the range of vaccination, the diversification of vaccination information release, the level of emergency coordination between health management departments and vaccinologists, and the public’s awareness of emergency protection can all effectively promote vaccination. Among them, the effects of vaccination range (δ) and the diversification of vaccination information release (φ) on game subjects’ strategy selection fluctuated, but did not affect the overall trend. Both the level of emergency collaboration (θ) and public safety awareness (ε) can enhance the initiative of game subjects to participate in vaccination. When the stable strategy combination formed by the game system are positive promotion strategy, active guidance strategy and active vaccination strategy, the convergence rate of health management departments and vaccinologists to form a stable strategy is greater than that of the public. Further, the implications of promoting the effective implementation of vaccination are put forward via improving the vaccination strategy, strengthening vaccination collaboration, mobilizing the enthusiasm of vaccinologists, and enhancing the initiative of the public.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The prediction of the containerized freight index has important economic and social significance. Previous research has mostly applied sub-predictors directly for integration, which cannot be optimized for different datasets. To fill this research gap and improve prediction accuracy, this study innovatively proposes a new prediction model based on adaptive model selection and multi-objective ensemble to predict the containerized freight index. The proposed model comprises the following four modules: adaptive data preprocessing, model library, adaptive model selection, and multi-objective ensemble. Specifically, an adaptive data preprocessing module is established based on a novel modal decomposition technology that can effectively reduce the impact of perturbations in historical data on the prediction model. Second, a new model library is constructed to predict the subseries, consisting of four basic predictors. Then, the adaptive model selection module is established based on Lasso feature selection to choose valid predictors for subseries. For the subseries, different predictors can produce different effects; thus, to obtain better prediction results, the weights of each predictor must be reconsidered. Therefore, a multi-objective artificial vulture optimization algorithm is introduced into the multi-objective ensemble module, which can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction model. In addition, an important discovery is that the proposed model can acquire different models, adaptively varying with different extracted data features in various datasets, and it is common for multiple models or no model to be selected for the subseries.The proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance in the real freight market, achieving average MAE, RMSE, MAPE, IA, and TIC values of 9.55567, 11.29675, 0.44222%, 0.99787, and 0.00268, respectively, across four datasets. These results indicate that the proposed model has excellent predictive ability and robustness.
{"title":"A Novel Intelligent Prediction Model for the Containerized Freight Index: A New Perspective of Adaptive Model Selection for Subseries","authors":"Wendong Yang, Hao Zhang, Sibo Yang, Yan Hao","doi":"10.3390/systems12080309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080309","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of the containerized freight index has important economic and social significance. Previous research has mostly applied sub-predictors directly for integration, which cannot be optimized for different datasets. To fill this research gap and improve prediction accuracy, this study innovatively proposes a new prediction model based on adaptive model selection and multi-objective ensemble to predict the containerized freight index. The proposed model comprises the following four modules: adaptive data preprocessing, model library, adaptive model selection, and multi-objective ensemble. Specifically, an adaptive data preprocessing module is established based on a novel modal decomposition technology that can effectively reduce the impact of perturbations in historical data on the prediction model. Second, a new model library is constructed to predict the subseries, consisting of four basic predictors. Then, the adaptive model selection module is established based on Lasso feature selection to choose valid predictors for subseries. For the subseries, different predictors can produce different effects; thus, to obtain better prediction results, the weights of each predictor must be reconsidered. Therefore, a multi-objective artificial vulture optimization algorithm is introduced into the multi-objective ensemble module, which can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction model. In addition, an important discovery is that the proposed model can acquire different models, adaptively varying with different extracted data features in various datasets, and it is common for multiple models or no model to be selected for the subseries.The proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance in the real freight market, achieving average MAE, RMSE, MAPE, IA, and TIC values of 9.55567, 11.29675, 0.44222%, 0.99787, and 0.00268, respectively, across four datasets. These results indicate that the proposed model has excellent predictive ability and robustness.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The use of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) has been increasingly explored recently in industries that require multi-discipline engineering coordination. In the European space industry, applying MBSE for the engineering of space systems has been an ongoing undertaking on many missions. In the following paper, the MBSE activities in CAMEO conducted during the A/B1 phases of a typical Earth observation satellite engineered by Airbus are discussed in detail in the form of a case study. The analyses shown are based around the modeling of the spacecraft electrical interfaces in CAMEO. This model was used to automate electrical interface control documents (EICDs) and enable the control of electrical interface development. These methodologies were further put in the context of Airbus’ satellite design processes to assess the benefits of an MBSE approach to the current electrical interface engineering procedure and the potential for the reuse of CAMEO models between satellite projects. The reduction in system engineering effort through the reuse of models to modularly create similar satellite systems for efficient concept evaluation and comparison is a clear benefit.
{"title":"Applying MBSE to Optimize Satellite and Payload Interfaces in Early Mission Phases","authors":"Shayna Slobin, Zizung Yoon, Susanne Fugger","doi":"10.3390/systems12080310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080310","url":null,"abstract":"The use of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) has been increasingly explored recently in industries that require multi-discipline engineering coordination. In the European space industry, applying MBSE for the engineering of space systems has been an ongoing undertaking on many missions. In the following paper, the MBSE activities in CAMEO conducted during the A/B1 phases of a typical Earth observation satellite engineered by Airbus are discussed in detail in the form of a case study. The analyses shown are based around the modeling of the spacecraft electrical interfaces in CAMEO. This model was used to automate electrical interface control documents (EICDs) and enable the control of electrical interface development. These methodologies were further put in the context of Airbus’ satellite design processes to assess the benefits of an MBSE approach to the current electrical interface engineering procedure and the potential for the reuse of CAMEO models between satellite projects. The reduction in system engineering effort through the reuse of models to modularly create similar satellite systems for efficient concept evaluation and comparison is a clear benefit.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Formal methods (FMs) have been cited as a viable methodology for developing high-quality software. However, the steep learning curve in efficiently using the underlying discrete mathematics and logic has hindered FMs’ adoption, leading to a decline in their initial interest in the 1980s. Traditionally, technical approaches have been pursued to address the FMs challenge. Having taken cognisance of a similar pre-4IR decline in AI, the researcher views FMs as technology and considers solutions at intersections of 4IR-5IR technology adoption, leveraged by the support of governors, termed leadership-management in this work. Following a qualitative research choice, scholarly literature is reviewed, and sets of qualitative propositions are defined to develop a conceptual framework for a 4IR-5IR leadership-management adoption of FMs. Aspects that emerged and are incorporated into the framework are cross-functional and executive levels of leadership, transformative, adaptive, and servant leadership styles, using FM tools that embed a high level of user experience, and 4IR technologies, augmented with 5IR human aspects. The framework is hoped to motivate a company’s leadership to contribute to technology and technical ICT-based decision-making increasingly. Future work in this area would involve securing input from practitioners and exercising the framework in an industrial setting.
{"title":"The Role of 4IR-5IR Leadership-Management in the Adoption of Formal Methods","authors":"John Andrew van der Poll","doi":"10.3390/systems12080306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080306","url":null,"abstract":"Formal methods (FMs) have been cited as a viable methodology for developing high-quality software. However, the steep learning curve in efficiently using the underlying discrete mathematics and logic has hindered FMs’ adoption, leading to a decline in their initial interest in the 1980s. Traditionally, technical approaches have been pursued to address the FMs challenge. Having taken cognisance of a similar pre-4IR decline in AI, the researcher views FMs as technology and considers solutions at intersections of 4IR-5IR technology adoption, leveraged by the support of governors, termed leadership-management in this work. Following a qualitative research choice, scholarly literature is reviewed, and sets of qualitative propositions are defined to develop a conceptual framework for a 4IR-5IR leadership-management adoption of FMs. Aspects that emerged and are incorporated into the framework are cross-functional and executive levels of leadership, transformative, adaptive, and servant leadership styles, using FM tools that embed a high level of user experience, and 4IR technologies, augmented with 5IR human aspects. The framework is hoped to motivate a company’s leadership to contribute to technology and technical ICT-based decision-making increasingly. Future work in this area would involve securing input from practitioners and exercising the framework in an industrial setting.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142201576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The issue of black-odorous water (BOW) represents a formidable challenge to the current aquatic ecosystems, and its governance exhibits characteristics of low efficiency, susceptibility to relapse, and fragmented management under the Central Environmental Protection Inspection, thereby emerging as a dynamically complex issue in the ecological governance of urban and rural settings. This study introduces Gaussian white noise to simulate environmental uncertainty and design a stochastic evolutionary game model encompassing the central government, local governments, and societal forces based on evolutionary game theory and classical governance theories and concepts. Numerical simulations are conducted to explore trajectories of the strategic evolution of various subjects influenced by numerous factors. Results indicate that under the environment of random disturbances, the strategies of the game subjects show significant fluctuations, but actively cultivating the subject’s initial willingness facilitates collaboration governance in inspection. Moreover, joint construction of a “belief system” by multi-subjects, the intensity of inspection interventions, the integration of heterogeneous resources, and effective punitive measures all influence the governance of BOW, but the efficiency of resource allocation should be considered throughout the governance process. Recommendations are made finally for collaborative governance of urban and rural BOW, promoting the sustainable development of the ecological environment.
{"title":"Dynamic Research on the Collaborative Governance in Urban and Rural Black-Odorous Water: A Tripartite Stochastic Evolutionary Game Perspective","authors":"Kangjun Peng, Changqi Dong, Jianing Mi","doi":"10.3390/systems12080307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080307","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of black-odorous water (BOW) represents a formidable challenge to the current aquatic ecosystems, and its governance exhibits characteristics of low efficiency, susceptibility to relapse, and fragmented management under the Central Environmental Protection Inspection, thereby emerging as a dynamically complex issue in the ecological governance of urban and rural settings. This study introduces Gaussian white noise to simulate environmental uncertainty and design a stochastic evolutionary game model encompassing the central government, local governments, and societal forces based on evolutionary game theory and classical governance theories and concepts. Numerical simulations are conducted to explore trajectories of the strategic evolution of various subjects influenced by numerous factors. Results indicate that under the environment of random disturbances, the strategies of the game subjects show significant fluctuations, but actively cultivating the subject’s initial willingness facilitates collaboration governance in inspection. Moreover, joint construction of a “belief system” by multi-subjects, the intensity of inspection interventions, the integration of heterogeneous resources, and effective punitive measures all influence the governance of BOW, but the efficiency of resource allocation should be considered throughout the governance process. Recommendations are made finally for collaborative governance of urban and rural BOW, promoting the sustainable development of the ecological environment.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Great Reset (GR) has been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 as a model through which a “stakeholder economy” would achieve “resilient, equitable, and sustainable” social, economic, and ecological reform. The GR agenda includes environmentally sustainable use and more equitable distribution of resources. This article raises the question of whether the Great Reset program should be interpreted as a “realistic utopia” and what its reform potential is. To this end, the GR program is tested against the current state of science and philosophy. The idea of a utopia is analyzed in the light of recent philosophical and scientific approaches, such as critical realism in philosophy, social systems theory in sociology, and complexity theory in science. A comparative conceptual analysis is carried out by introducing the idea of a realistic utopia in Rawls’ theory of justice as fairness. In the final discussion, some doubts are raised about the logical coherence, rigor of scientific theorizing, policy prescriptions, and predictive potential of the Great Reset. It is concluded that utopian projects of radical reform are not realistic due to the supposed long-term repercussions of exogenous shocks or “black swan” events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather, they must offer explanations of the deep structural elements and evolutionary patterns that underlie society and the economy, drawing from these explanations the policy implications, predictions, and prescriptions that can support change.
{"title":"The Great Reset as a Realistic Utopia—A Critical Stance from Critical Realism and Complex Systems Theory","authors":"Ermanno C. Tortia","doi":"10.3390/systems12080304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080304","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Reset (GR) has been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 as a model through which a “stakeholder economy” would achieve “resilient, equitable, and sustainable” social, economic, and ecological reform. The GR agenda includes environmentally sustainable use and more equitable distribution of resources. This article raises the question of whether the Great Reset program should be interpreted as a “realistic utopia” and what its reform potential is. To this end, the GR program is tested against the current state of science and philosophy. The idea of a utopia is analyzed in the light of recent philosophical and scientific approaches, such as critical realism in philosophy, social systems theory in sociology, and complexity theory in science. A comparative conceptual analysis is carried out by introducing the idea of a realistic utopia in Rawls’ theory of justice as fairness. In the final discussion, some doubts are raised about the logical coherence, rigor of scientific theorizing, policy prescriptions, and predictive potential of the Great Reset. It is concluded that utopian projects of radical reform are not realistic due to the supposed long-term repercussions of exogenous shocks or “black swan” events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather, they must offer explanations of the deep structural elements and evolutionary patterns that underlie society and the economy, drawing from these explanations the policy implications, predictions, and prescriptions that can support change.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142201572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
(1) Efficient resource utilization in urban transport necessitates the integration of passenger and freight transport systems. Current research focuses on dynamically responding to both passenger and parcel orders, typically by initially planning passenger routes and then dynamically inserting parcel requests. However, this approach overlooks the inherent flexibility in parcel delivery times compared to the stringent time constraints of passenger transport. (2) This study introduces a novel approach to enhance taxi resource utilization by proposing a shared model for people and parcel transport, designated as the SARP-LTW (Sharing a ride problem with loose time windows of parcels) model. Our model accommodates loose time windows for parcel deliveries and initially defines the parcel delivery routes for each taxi before each working day, which was prior to addressing passenger requests. Once the working day of each taxi commences, all taxis will prioritize serving the dynamic passenger travel requests, minimizing the delay for these requests, with the only requirement being to ensure that all pre-scheduled parcels can be delivered to their destinations. (3) This dual-service approach aims to optimize profits while balancing the time-sensitivity of passenger orders against the flexibility in parcel delivery. Furthermore, we improved the adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm by introducing an ant colony information update mechanism (AC-ALNS) to solve the SARP-LTW efficiently. (4) Numerical analysis of the well-known Solomon set of benchmark instances demonstrates that the SARP-LTW model outperforms the SARP model in profit rate, revenue, and revenue stability, with improvements of 48%, 46%, and 49%, respectively. Our proposed approach enables taxi companies to maximize vehicle utilization, reducing idle time and increasing revenue.
{"title":"Sharing a Ride: A Dual-Service Model of People and Parcels Sharing Taxis with Loose Time Windows of Parcels","authors":"Shuqi Xue, Qi Zhang, Nirajan Shiwakoti","doi":"10.3390/systems12080302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080302","url":null,"abstract":"(1) Efficient resource utilization in urban transport necessitates the integration of passenger and freight transport systems. Current research focuses on dynamically responding to both passenger and parcel orders, typically by initially planning passenger routes and then dynamically inserting parcel requests. However, this approach overlooks the inherent flexibility in parcel delivery times compared to the stringent time constraints of passenger transport. (2) This study introduces a novel approach to enhance taxi resource utilization by proposing a shared model for people and parcel transport, designated as the SARP-LTW (Sharing a ride problem with loose time windows of parcels) model. Our model accommodates loose time windows for parcel deliveries and initially defines the parcel delivery routes for each taxi before each working day, which was prior to addressing passenger requests. Once the working day of each taxi commences, all taxis will prioritize serving the dynamic passenger travel requests, minimizing the delay for these requests, with the only requirement being to ensure that all pre-scheduled parcels can be delivered to their destinations. (3) This dual-service approach aims to optimize profits while balancing the time-sensitivity of passenger orders against the flexibility in parcel delivery. Furthermore, we improved the adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm by introducing an ant colony information update mechanism (AC-ALNS) to solve the SARP-LTW efficiently. (4) Numerical analysis of the well-known Solomon set of benchmark instances demonstrates that the SARP-LTW model outperforms the SARP model in profit rate, revenue, and revenue stability, with improvements of 48%, 46%, and 49%, respectively. Our proposed approach enables taxi companies to maximize vehicle utilization, reducing idle time and increasing revenue.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142201573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Our study introduces an enhanced version of the Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) method, a powerful tool that can be applied across various domains. This method plays a crucial role in our research, aiding in making well-informed decisions about smart tourism destination attributes. We achieved this by evaluating how 911 consumers from four different generations (Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z) rated these attributes based on their most recent tourist destination visit. Unlike traditional methods that often rely on subjective opinions or complex statistical models, the Improved IPA (IIPA) method offers a clear approach to decision-making. It enables decision-makers to focus on the most crucial attributes that drive consumer interest, thereby optimizing resource allocation and marketing efforts. Specifically, to remain competitive, decision-makers for smart tourist destinations should focus on queuing-time forecast and applications, websites, and content accessible for travelers with disabilities for Baby Boomers; e-complaint handling for Generation X; smart emergency response system for Millennials; and tourist-flow forecast, real-time traffic broadcast, electronic-entrance guard systems, and accessible data about physical design features of accommodation, restaurants, and tourist attractions for Generation Z. Theoretically, this study advances the research on managerial decision-making by demonstrating the effectiveness of the IIPA as a clear and straightforward method for making optimal decisions about product or service attributes. In practice, the study provides decision-makers with valuable insights into the importance of different categories of smart attributes in shaping the overall holiday experience at a tourist destination for Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z tourism consumers.
我们的研究引入了增强版的重要性-绩效分析（IPA）方法，这是一种可应用于各个领域的强大工具。该方法在我们的研究中发挥了至关重要的作用，有助于在充分了解情况的前提下做出关于智慧旅游目的地属性的决策。为此，我们评估了来自四个不同时代（婴儿潮一代、X 代、千禧一代和 Z 代）的 911 名消费者在最近一次旅游目的地访问中对这些属性的评价。与通常依赖主观意见或复杂统计模型的传统方法不同，改进型 IPA（IIPA）方法提供了一种清晰的决策方法。它使决策者能够专注于驱动消费者兴趣的最关键属性，从而优化资源分配和营销工作。具体来说，为保持竞争力，智慧旅游目的地的决策者应关注婴儿潮一代的排队时间预测和残障游客可访问的应用程序、网站和内容；X一代的电子投诉处理；千禧一代的智能应急系统；Z一代的游客流量预测、实时交通广播、电子门禁系统，以及住宿、餐饮和旅游景点物理设计特征的无障碍数据。从理论上讲，本研究通过证明 IIPA 作为一种清晰明了的方法，可以对产品或服务属性做出最优决策，从而推动了管理决策研究。在实践中，本研究为决策者提供了宝贵的见解，让他们了解不同类别的智能属性对于塑造婴儿潮一代、X 代、千禧一代和 Z 代旅游消费者在旅游目的地的整体度假体验的重要性。
{"title":"Optimized Decisions for Smart Tourism Destinations: A Cross-Generational Perspective Using an Improved Importance–Performance Analysis","authors":"Elena-Aurelia Botezat, Olimpia-Iuliana Ban, Adela Laura Popa, Dorin-Cristian Coita, Teodora Mihaela Tarcza","doi":"10.3390/systems12080297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080297","url":null,"abstract":"Our study introduces an enhanced version of the Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) method, a powerful tool that can be applied across various domains. This method plays a crucial role in our research, aiding in making well-informed decisions about smart tourism destination attributes. We achieved this by evaluating how 911 consumers from four different generations (Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z) rated these attributes based on their most recent tourist destination visit. Unlike traditional methods that often rely on subjective opinions or complex statistical models, the Improved IPA (IIPA) method offers a clear approach to decision-making. It enables decision-makers to focus on the most crucial attributes that drive consumer interest, thereby optimizing resource allocation and marketing efforts. Specifically, to remain competitive, decision-makers for smart tourist destinations should focus on queuing-time forecast and applications, websites, and content accessible for travelers with disabilities for Baby Boomers; e-complaint handling for Generation X; smart emergency response system for Millennials; and tourist-flow forecast, real-time traffic broadcast, electronic-entrance guard systems, and accessible data about physical design features of accommodation, restaurants, and tourist attractions for Generation Z. Theoretically, this study advances the research on managerial decision-making by demonstrating the effectiveness of the IIPA as a clear and straightforward method for making optimal decisions about product or service attributes. In practice, the study provides decision-makers with valuable insights into the importance of different categories of smart attributes in shaping the overall holiday experience at a tourist destination for Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z tourism consumers.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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