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Functional time series forecasting of extreme values 极值的函数时间序列预测
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-12-19 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1869629
H. Shang, Ruofan Xu
Abstract We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterized using the three parameters (location, scale, and shape). As a result, the forecasts of the GEV density can be accomplished by forecasting these three latent parameters. Depending on the underlying data structure, some of the three parameters can either be modeled as scalars or functions. We provide two forecasting algorithms to model and forecast these parameters. To assess the forecast uncertainty, we apply a sieve bootstrap method to construct pointwise and simultaneous prediction intervals of the forecasted extreme values. Illustrated by a daily maximum temperature dataset, we demonstrate the advantages of modeling these parameters as functions. Further, the finite-sample performance of our methods is quantified using several Monte Carlo simulated data under a range of scenarios.
摘要研究广义极值分布(GEV)中极值函数时间序列的预测问题。GEV分布可以通过三个参数(位置、尺度和形状)来表征。因此,通过对这三个潜在参数的预测,可以实现对GEV密度的预测。根据底层数据结构的不同,这三个参数中的一些可以被建模为标量或函数。我们提供了两种预测算法来建模和预测这些参数。为了评估预测的不确定性,我们采用筛子自举法构造预测极值的逐点同步预测区间。以日最高温度数据集为例,我们展示了将这些参数作为函数建模的优点。此外,我们的方法的有限样本性能在一系列场景下使用几个蒙特卡罗模拟数据进行量化。
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引用次数: 4
A wavelet-based approach for Johansen’s likelihood ratio test for cointegration in the presence of measurement errors: An application to CO2 emissions and real GDP data 存在测量误差的协整的约翰森似然比检验的基于小波的方法:对二氧化碳排放和实际GDP数据的应用
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-12-09 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1850372
O. Habimana, K. Månsson, P. Sjölander
Abstract We suggest a wavelet filtering technique as a remedy to the problem of measurement errors when testing for cointegration using Johansen’s (1988) likelihood ratio test. Measurement errors, which more or less are always present in empirical economic data, essentially indicates that the variable of interest (the true signal) is contaminated with noise, which may induce biased and inconsistent estimates and erroneous inference. Our Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that measurement errors distort the statistical size of Johansen’s cointegration test in finite samples; the test is significantly oversized. A contribution and major finding of this article is that the proposed wavelet-based technique significantly improves the statistical size of the traditional Johansen test in small and medium sized samples. Since Johansen’s test is a standard cointegration test, and we demonstrate that the constantly present measurement errors in empirical data over sizes the test, this simple alteration can be used in most situations with more reliable finite sample inference. We empirically examine the long-run relation between CO2 emissions and the real GDP in the G7 countries. The traditional Johansen tests provide evidence of an equilibrium relation for Canada and weak evidence for the US. However, the suggested size-unbiased wavelet-filtering approach consistently indicates no evidence of cointegration for all six countries.
摘要:我们提出了一种小波滤波技术,以补救测量误差的问题,当使用约翰森(1988)的似然比检验检验协整。测量误差或多或少总是存在于经验经济数据中,本质上表明感兴趣的变量(真实信号)受到噪声的污染,这可能导致有偏差和不一致的估计和错误的推断。我们的蒙特卡罗实验表明,在有限样本中,测量误差扭曲了约翰森协整检验的统计大小;测试明显过大。本文的一个贡献和主要发现是,所提出的基于小波的技术显着提高了传统约翰森测试在中小型样本中的统计大小。由于约翰森的检验是一个标准的协整检验,我们证明了经验数据中不断存在的测量误差超过了检验的大小,这个简单的改变可以在大多数情况下使用更可靠的有限样本推断。本文对七国集团国家的二氧化碳排放量与实际GDP的长期关系进行了实证检验。传统的约翰森检验为加拿大提供了一种平衡关系的证据,而为美国提供了微弱的证据。然而,建议的大小无偏小波滤波方法一致表明,所有六个国家都没有协整的证据。
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引用次数: 2
Soybean production value in the Rio Grande do Sul under the GAMLSS framework 在GAMLSS框架下的南里奥格兰德州大豆产值
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-12-08 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1852131
Tatiane Fontana Ribeiro, E. Seidel, R. Guerra, Fernando A. Peña-Ramírez, A. M. D. Silva
Abstract In this article, we consider the more recent soybean production data in Rio Grande do Sul (years 2017 and 2018) and obtain regression models through the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) approach, and provide a dashboard as a visualization tool of the considered variables. Two models are applied to explain and predict the soybean production value as a function of the covariates, such as produced quantity, number of establishments, and average yield in each city of RS. Validation and cross-validation methods are considered to assess whether the predictions provided by the fitted models are reliable. The fitted model with data of 2017 provides the best predictions. The GAMLSS framework may be more accurate than linear regression to model data related to soybean production, constituting them in a reliable and useful source to auxiliary the farmers and economic sector managers in making decisions.
在本文中,我们考虑了南里奥格兰德州最近的大豆生产数据(2017年和2018年),并通过广义加性位置、规模和形状模型(GAMLSS)方法获得回归模型,并提供了一个仪表板作为所考虑变量的可视化工具。采用两个模型来解释和预测大豆产值作为协变量的函数,如生产数量、企业数量和RS每个城市的平均产量。考虑验证和交叉验证方法来评估拟合模型提供的预测是否可靠。2017年数据的拟合模型提供了最好的预测。GAMLSS框架可能比线性回归更准确地处理与大豆生产有关的模型数据,使它们成为一个可靠和有用的来源,以辅助农民和经济部门管理者做出决策。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue – Communications in Statistics – Case Studies and Data Analysis: 5th Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis International Conference 特刊-统计通讯-案例研究和数据分析:第五届随机建模技术和数据分析国际会议
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1850108
C. Skiadas, Yiannis Dimotikalis, C. Skiadas
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引用次数: 0
Modeling road traffic accidents in Mauritius using clustered longitudinal COM-Poisson with gamma random effects 利用具有伽马随机效应的聚类纵向com -泊松模型模拟毛里求斯的道路交通事故
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1842269
N. M. Khan, Ashwinee Devi Soobhug, Z. Jannoo
Abstract This article proposes a nonstationary clustered longitudinal model to analyze road traffic accident time series data from 2016 to 2017 in Mauritius. The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson model (COM-Poisson) is used as the baseline model with gamma-distributed random effects (CMP-G). Several time-variant explanatory variables are incorporated into the model specification link predictor to identify the likely causes of road crashes in the Mauritius. The proposed model competes with the popular Poisson gamma and log-normal mixtures when modeling over-dispersion. The model parameters namely the regression, serial, and dispersion effects, are estimated suitably by a generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) estimation method while the serial parameter is treated as nuisance and estimated by method of moments. The asymptotic properties of the GQL estimators are discussed. A simulation study based on an integer-valued auto-regressive of order 1 structure (INAR(1)) with CMP-G distributed innovation terms, is also proposed to assess the performance of GQL based on the CMP-G. Data application is of road traffic accidents in Mauritius where some model criteria have been computed to assess the goodness of fits of the proposed model against the Poisson-gamma and Poisson-log normal mixtures.
本文提出了一种非平稳聚类纵向模型,对毛里求斯2016 - 2017年道路交通事故时间序列数据进行分析。采用康威-麦克斯韦-泊松模型(com -泊松)作为伽马分布随机效应(CMP-G)的基线模型。几个时变解释变量被纳入模型规范链接预测器,以确定毛里求斯道路碰撞的可能原因。所提出的模型在模拟过分散时可与流行的泊松伽玛和对数正态混合相竞争。模型参数即回归效应、序列效应和离散效应,采用广义拟似然(GQL)估计方法进行适当估计,而序列参数作为干扰参数,采用矩量法进行估计。讨论了GQL估计量的渐近性质。提出了一种基于CMP-G分布式创新项的1阶整值自回归结构(INAR(1))的仿真研究,以评估基于CMP-G的GQL的性能。数据应用于毛里求斯的道路交通事故,其中计算了一些模型标准,以评估所提出的模型对泊松-伽马和泊松-对数正态混合的拟合度。
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引用次数: 2
Detecting long term and abrupt changes of river overflows in Slovakia 检测斯洛伐克河流溢流的长期和突然变化
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-11-04 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1842268
Dominika Ballová
Abstract In hydrometeorological processes, it is crucial to detect changes, since it can help prevent or at least prepare for extreme events like floods and drought. In this article, long term and abrupt changes in the development of average monthly overflow of main rivers of Slovakia are detected. Since the data follow non-normal distribution, results are obtained by means of nonparametric methods. Significant trends in the series were detected by applying the Mann–Kendall test, the Spearman’s rho test and the Cox–Stuart test. Change-points were detected by using the Pettitt’s test and the Buishand test. Since an abrupt change in the series could cause a misleading outcome of the trend analysis, first we applied change-point detection. If at least one significant change appeared in the series, trend analysis is applied on each segment bounded by the change-points. Otherwise a trend analysis is applied to the whole series.
在水文气象过程中,监测变化是至关重要的,因为它可以帮助预防或至少为洪水和干旱等极端事件做好准备。本文研究了斯洛伐克主要河流月平均溢流发展的长期和突变。由于数据服从非正态分布,所以采用非参数方法得到结果。通过应用Mann-Kendall检验、Spearman 's rho检验和Cox-Stuart检验来检测该系列的显著趋势。使用Pettitt测试和Buishand测试来检测变更点。由于序列中的突变可能导致趋势分析的误导性结果,因此首先我们应用了变化点检测。如果在该系列中至少出现一个显著变化,则对以变化点为界的每个部分应用趋势分析。否则,对整个序列进行趋势分析。
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引用次数: 0
Auxiliary information based exponentially weighted moving co-efficient of variation control chart: An application to monitor electric conductivity for water system 基于指数加权变化控制图移动系数的辅助信息:在水系统电导率监测中的应用
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1836533
Afshan Riaz, Muhammad Noor-ul-Amin, Hina Khan
Abstract Monitoring the coefficient of variation (CV) is a successful approach in statistical process control to monitor the process variability when the process mean and standard deviation are not constant. In this study, we proposed auxiliary information based exponentially weighted moving CV control chart by using a three-parameter logarithmic transformation to monitor the small and moderate change in process CV. The new chart is compared to the considered charts by means of average run length. The application of the proposed chart is demonstrated to monitor the electric conductivity of a water system by incorporating aggregate hardness of water as an auxiliary variable.
变异系数(CV)监测是统计过程控制中监测过程均值和标准差不恒定时的过程变异性的一种成功方法。在本研究中,我们提出了基于辅助信息的指数加权移动CV控制图,采用三参数对数变换来监测过程CV的微小和中等变化。通过平均运行长度将新图表与考虑过的图表进行比较。通过将水的骨料硬度作为辅助变量,演示了所提出的图表的应用,以监测水系统的电导率。
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引用次数: 3
A metafrontier production function for a Bayesian frontier model: A cross-country comparison 贝叶斯前沿模型的元前沿生产函数:跨国比较
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1829177
P. Economou, S. Malefaki, K. Kounetas
Abstract Growth theory argues on the role of heterogeneity that can lead to multiple regimes examining countries’ performance. A metaproduction stochastic function for the Bayesian frontier model is developed to estimate productive performance across 109 countries over a 20-year period using two distinct frontiers (OECD vs. non-OECD countries). The metafrontier model is used to highlight heterogeneity among clusters of countries revealing catch up phenomena. The estimation procedure is based on the notion of stochastic ordering and relies on the solution of an optimization problem on the parameters’ posterior means. Empirical results reveal that heterogeneity indeed plays a significant and distinctive role.
抽象增长理论认为,异质性的作用可能导致多种制度审查国家的表现。开发了贝叶斯前沿模型的元生产随机函数,使用两个不同的前沿(经合组织与非经合组织国家)来估计109个国家在20年期间的生产绩效。元前沿模型用于突出揭示追赶现象的国家集群之间的异质性。估计过程基于随机排序的概念,并依赖于参数后验均值的优化问题的解。实证结果表明,异质性确实发挥了显著而独特的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Inference using MCMC to a new conjugate prior to positive parameters, applied in environmental data 在环境数据中应用MCMC对一种新的共轭先验正参数进行推理
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-07 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1826368
F. Nascimento, Wires do Nascimento Moura
Abstract Choosing the prior distribution may have great impact on the result of the posterior distribution and, consequently, point and interval estimation of parameters and the respective predictive density. In situations where the parameters are positive, the gamma distribution is the most common as a conjugate prior to a wide family of parameters. Bourguignon presented the weighted Lindley (WL) distribution as an alternative conjugate prior to parameters conjugated from the gamma family. This work consists in presenting a general way to perform inference to this parameters in a p-parametric vector distribution. The method is illustrated with two cases where both the WL distribution and the gamma distribution are conjugated to these families. Estimation of posterior points is sampled using MCMC techniques. The results of the applications showed advantage on using the WL prior distribution, compared to results with the usual prior gamma distribution.
先验分布的选择会对后验分布的结果产生很大的影响,从而影响参数的点估计和区间估计以及各自的预测密度。在参数为正的情况下,伽马分布是最常见的共轭分布,先于大量参数。Bourguignon提出加权林德利(WL)分布作为gamma族共轭参数之前的替代共轭。这项工作包括提出一种在p参数向量分布中对这些参数进行推理的一般方法。用两个例子说明了该方法,其中WL分布和γ分布都共轭到这些族。后验点的估计使用MCMC技术进行采样。与通常的先验分布相比,应用程序的结果显示了使用WL先验分布的优势。
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引用次数: 1
A topological approach of multiple correspondence analysis 多对应分析的拓扑方法
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1830733
Rafik Abdesselam
ABSTRACT Topological multiple correspondence analysis (TMCA) studies a group of categorical variables defined on the same set of individuals. It is a topological method of data analysis that consists of exploring, analyzing, and representing the associations between several qualitative variables in the context of multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). It compares and classifies proximity measures to select the best one according to the data under consideration, then analyzes, interprets, and visualizes with graphic representations, the possible associations between several categorical variables relating to the known problem of MCA. Based on the notion of neighborhood graphs, some of these proximity measures are more-or-less equivalent. A topological equivalence index between two measures is defined and statistically tested according to the degree of description of the associations between the modalities of these qualitative variables. We compare proximity measures and propose a topological criterion for choosing the best association measure, adapted to the data considered, from among some of the most widely used proximity measures for categorical data. The principle of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real dataset with conventional proximity measures for binary variables from the literature. The first step is to find the proximity measure that can best be adapted to the data; the second step is to use this measure to perform the TMCA.
拓扑多重对应分析(TMCA)研究定义在同一个体集合上的一组分类变量。它是一种数据分析的拓扑方法,包括在多重对应分析(MCA)的背景下探索、分析和表示几个定性变量之间的关联。它根据所考虑的数据对接近度量进行比较和分类,以选择最佳的接近度量,然后分析、解释和可视化与已知MCA问题相关的几个分类变量之间的可能关联。基于邻域图的概念,这些接近度量中的一些或多或少是等价的。根据这些定性变量的模态之间的关联的描述程度,定义了两个度量之间的拓扑等价指数并进行了统计检验。我们比较了接近度量,并提出了一个拓扑标准,用于从分类数据中最广泛使用的接近度量中选择适合所考虑数据的最佳关联度量。所提出的方法的原理是用一个真实的数据集来说明的,该数据集具有文献中二元变量的传统接近度量。第一步是找到最适合数据的接近度量;第二步是使用这一措施来执行TMCA。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Communications in Statistics Case Studies Data Analysis and Applications
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