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Trends in Noncovered Employment and Earnings Among Employees of State and Local Governments, 1994 to 2018 1994年至2018年州和地方政府雇员非保险就业和收入趋势
Pub Date : 2021-08-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908029
P. Purcell
From 1994–1998 to 2014–2018, the proportion of U.S. workers employed by state and local governments fell from 13.1 percent to 11.8 percent, but the number of state and local government employees rose from 16.8 million to 17.7 million. The number of state and local government employees in jobs not covered by Social Security increased from 4.2 million to 4.7 million. This increase suggests rising future Social Security Administration workloads to administer the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset.
1994-1998年至2014-2018年,美国州和地方政府雇用的工人比例从13.1%下降到11.8%,但州和地方政府雇员人数从1680万增加到1770万。没有社保的州和地方政府雇员人数从420万增加到470万。这一增长表明,未来社会保障管理局管理意外之财消除条款和政府养老金抵消的工作量将增加。
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引用次数: 1
What Jobs Do Employers Want Older Workers to Do? 雇主希望年长员工做什么工作?
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3638576
A. Munnell, Gal Wettstein, Abigail N. Walters
Over the past couple of decades, Americans have been seeking to work to older ages. The current COVID-19 recession notwithstanding, a long-term trend toward later retirement has sharply increased the labor force participation rate among older individuals. However, working to older ages requires more than a willingness on the part of workers; it requires employers to hire them on terms that are worthwhile. While employers often say they are open to employing older workers, evidence of discrimination in audit studies suggests reason to worry. One question is: Owhat jobs do employers really want older workers to do?O To answer this question, this brief, based on a recent paper, examines a sample of job postings from RetirementJobs.com, a national website that targets older workers. In addition to exploring the characteristics, location, and compensation of these postings, the analysis compares them to two other data sources on job openings: 1) the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the federal governmentOs definitive source of aggregate statistics on job openings; and 2) a large general jobs board for workers of all ages. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section introduces RetirementJobs.com. Twenty percent of its listings are Odirect postingsO by employers aiming explicitly at older workers and 80 percent are cross-listings from CareerBuilder.com, which suggest employer willingness to hire older, as well as younger, workers. The second section reports on the characteristics of the jobs on RetirementJobs.com, and the third section compares the geographic dispersion of the jobs with those in the JOLTS and the characteristics of the jobs with a sample from the general jobs board. The results, at first blush, suggest reason for optimism. While the jobs posted on RetirementJobs.com represent a small fraction of job openings nationally, they nevertheless show the same geographic dispersion as jobs aimed at all age groups, cover a broad swath of occupations, and are likely to be full-time. They also offer higher wages than the postings on the general jobs board, although fewer of them mention health or retirement benefits. A somewhat less positive picture emerges when looking only at the direct postings specifically targeted to older workers. These postings tend to have substantially lower average wages than those aimed at a general audience and are even less likely to mention health or retirement benefits.
在过去的几十年里,美国人一直在寻求工作到更老的年龄。尽管目前出现了COVID-19经济衰退,但推迟退休的长期趋势大幅提高了老年人的劳动力参与率。然而,工作到更老的年龄不仅仅需要工人的意愿;它要求雇主以有价值的条款雇佣他们。尽管雇主经常表示,他们愿意雇用年长的员工,但审计研究中的歧视证据表明,有理由感到担忧。其中一个问题是:雇主真正希望年长员工做什么工作?为了回答这个问题,本文以最近的一篇论文为基础,分析了RetirementJobs.com上的招聘启事样本。RetirementJobs.com是一家面向老年员工的全国性网站。除了探索这些职位的特征、位置和薪酬外,该分析还将它们与其他两个关于职位空缺的数据来源进行了比较:1)职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS),这是联邦政府关于职位空缺汇总统计数据的权威来源;2)一个面向所有年龄层员工的大型综合就业板。讨论进行如下。第一部分介绍RetirementJobs.com。其中20%的招聘信息是雇主直接针对年长员工发布的,80%是来自CareerBuilder.com的交叉招聘信息,这表明雇主既愿意雇佣年长员工,也愿意雇佣年轻员工。第二部分报告了RetirementJobs.com上的职位特征,第三部分将职位的地理分布与JOLTS中的职位进行了比较,并将职位特征与一般职位板的样本进行了比较。乍一看,这些结果给我们带来了乐观的理由。虽然RetirementJobs.com上发布的职位只占全国空缺职位的一小部分,但它们显示出同样的地理分布,因为面向所有年龄段的职位,涵盖了广泛的职业,而且很可能是全职的。他们提供的工资也比一般招聘板上的要高,尽管很少有人提到健康或退休福利。如果只看专门针对年长员工的直接招聘,情况就不那么乐观了。这些帖子的平均工资往往比那些针对普通受众的帖子低得多,甚至不太可能提到健康或退休福利。
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引用次数: 3
How Much More Secure does the SECURE Act make American Workers: Evidence from EBRI’s Retirement Security Projection Model® 《安全法案》让美国工人更安全:来自EBRI退休安全预测模型的证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3548207
Jack L. VanDerhei
This Issue Brief uses EBRI’s Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM) to simulate the likely impact on retirement income adequacy of three of the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019’s (SECURE Act’s) most important provisions:

Widening access to multiple employer plans (MEPs) through open MEPs.

Increasing the cap under which plan sponsors can automatically enroll workers in “safe harbor” retirement plans, from 10 percent of wages to 15 percent.

Covering long-term part-time employees.

The impact was measured with three different output metrics:

Retirement savings shortfalls give the present value of the simulated retirement deficits at retirement age (in 2019 dollars).

Retirement savings surpluses give the present value of simulated retirement surpluses at retirement age (in 2019 dollars).

Net retirement savings surpluses give the present value of simulated retirement surpluses less retirement deficits at retirement age (in 2019 dollars).

Given the lack of information currently available on likely take-up rates for open MEPs by small employers that do not currently offer a retirement plan, sensitivity analysis was performed utilizing a wide array of assumed take-up rates:

7.3 percent.

Baseline: 30–31 percent (depending on plan size).

66 percent.

100 percent.

In addition, the actual plan type of the open MEP was simulated three different ways:

Automatic enrollment (assuming a 90 percent participation rate).

Voluntary enrollment (assuming a 60 percent participation rate).

Baseline: A blended rate (assuming a 75 percent participation rate).

Together, the baseline adoption and non-participation scenarios form the baseline case scenario.

Overall Reductions in Retirement Savings Shortfalls From Open MEPs: Total Impact Aggregated Across All Age Cohorts

With adoption of open MEPs at approximately one-third and a non-participation rate of zero (everyone who is eligible chooses to participate), there is an overall 1.8 percent reduction in retirement savings deficit. One would assume that younger age cohorts would experience a larger impact from open MEPs given the longer time for which they may potentially benefit from the increased coverage. Indeed, this is what we find. Overall there is a 3.2 percent reduction in retirement deficit for those ages 35–39.

In the baseline case scenario there is approximately a one-third adoption rate and 25 percent non-participation: The reduction in retirement savings deficit is now 1.4 percent overall and 2.4 percent for those ages 35–39.

Impact of the Increased Cap on Contribution Escalation on the Baseline Case Scenario

The SECURE Act contains a provision that increases the cap on automatic contribution escalation within the 401(k) non-discrimination testing safe harbor from 10 to 15 percent of pay. Also taking into account the increase
本问题简报使用EBRI的退休保障预测模型®(RSPM)来模拟2019年“建立每个社区退休增强法案”(“安全法案”)最重要的三个条款对退休收入充足性的可能影响:通过开放的mep扩大获得多雇主计划(mep)的机会。提高计划发起人自动将员工纳入“安全港”退休计划的上限,从工资的10%提高到15%。涵盖长期兼职雇员。这种影响是用三种不同的产出指标来衡量的:退休储蓄缺口给出了退休年龄时模拟退休赤字的现值(以2019年美元计算)。退休储蓄盈余给出了退休年龄时模拟退休盈余的现值(以2019年美元计算)。净退休储蓄盈余给出了模拟退休盈余减去退休年龄退休赤字的现值(以2019年美元计算)。鉴于目前缺乏关于目前不提供退休计划的小型雇主对开放式欧洲议会议员的可能接受率的信息,利用一系列假定的接受率进行敏感性分析:7.3%。基准:30 - 31%(取决于计划规模)。66%。100%。此外,还以三种不同的方式模拟了开放MEP的实际计划类型:自动注册(假设参与率为90%)。自愿登记(假设参与率为60%)。基线:混合比率(假设参与率为75%)。基线采用场景和不参与场景共同构成基线用例场景。开放欧洲议会的退休储蓄缺口总体减少:所有年龄段的总影响总和开放欧洲议会的采用率约为三分之一,非参与率为零(每个有资格的人都选择参加),退休储蓄赤字总体减少1.8%。人们会认为,年龄较小的人群将受到开放的欧洲议会议员的更大影响,因为他们可能从增加的覆盖范围中受益的时间更长。的确,这就是我们的发现。总体而言,35-39岁人群的退休赤字减少了3.2%。在基线情况下,大约有三分之一的采用率和25%的不参与率:退休储蓄赤字现在减少了1.4%,35-39岁的人减少了2.4%。提高缴费上限对基准情景的影响《安全法案》包含一项条款,将401(k)非歧视测试安全港自动缴费上限从工资的10%提高到15%。考虑到上调上限,35 ~ 39岁的退休储蓄赤字将分别减少2.6%和4.5%。长期兼职雇员覆盖率对基线情景的影响《安全法案》还包含一项规定,要求将长期兼职雇员纳入保险范围。考虑到这一点,退休储蓄赤字总体减少3.0%,35 ~ 39岁年龄段减少5.3%。如果我们假设所有在SECURE下开放的mep都设计了自动注册,自动缴款上限为15%,覆盖长期兼职雇员,选择退出率为10%(自动注册计划的典型):退休储蓄赤字总体减少3.3%,35-39岁的人减少5.8%。退休储蓄余额整体增加6.1%,35-39岁年龄段增加15.3%。退休储蓄净额总体增长6.9%,35-39岁年龄段增长18.6%。如果不参加率为25%,那么退休储蓄赤字将减少3.0%,35-39岁的退休储蓄赤字将减少5.3%。退休储蓄余额整体增加5.9%,35 ~ 39岁增加14.4%。退休储蓄净额总体增长6.6%,35-39岁人群增长17.5%。如果不参保率为40%(与自愿参保计划相当),退休储蓄赤字总体减少2.8%,35-39岁人群减少4.9%。退休储蓄盈余的总体增长率为5.6%,35-39岁年龄段的增长率为13.9%。退休储蓄净额总体增长6.3%,35-39岁年龄段增长16.8%。 不同采用率对整体减少退休赤字的影响如果我们回到上面的场景,其中开放的mep可用,401(k)测试安全港中自动升级缴款的上限为15%,长期兼职员工被覆盖,不参与率为合格员工的25%,我们现在可以测试不同采用率的影响。在更积极的采用场景中,我们假设开放mep的采用率为66%。退休储蓄赤字总体减少4.4%,35-39岁年龄段减少7.5%。退休储蓄盈余的总体增长率为7.2%,35-39岁年龄段的增长率为17.3%。退休储蓄净额总体增长8.2%,35-39岁年龄段增长21.2%。在我们最激进的情况下,我们假设所有员工少于500人的雇主目前没有赞助退休计划,采用开放的MEP。退休储蓄赤字的总体降幅为5.6%,35-39岁年龄段的降幅为9.2%。退休储蓄盈余总体增加8.7%,35-39岁年龄段增加20.2%。退休储蓄净额总体增长9.9%,35-39岁年龄段增长24.8%。相反,“最坏的情况”是假设开放的欧洲议会的采用率为7%。退休储蓄赤字总体减少2.0%,35 ~ 39岁年龄段减少3.5%。退休储蓄盈余总体增加4.9%,35-39岁年龄段增加12.3%。退休储蓄净额总体增长5.4%,35-39岁人群增长14.8%。当然,缺乏保险并不是决定工人在美国退休储蓄体系中生活得如何的唯一考虑因素。研究发现,计划终止后因提现而导致的计划泄漏是决定退休储蓄结果的另一个关键变量,尤其是在计划余额较低的员工中。Auto portability旨在通过终止参与者的前雇主账户自动与他们在新雇主计划中的活跃账户相结合,来解决退休计划的兑现问题。在开放的MEPs中,401(k)测试安全港的自动升级缴款上限为15%,长期兼职员工包括在内,不参与率为合格员工的25%;进一步假设,在终止时,参与者将拥有汽车可携性,退休储蓄缺口的总体减少幅度为10.0%。
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引用次数: 0
Do Pension Cuts for Current Employees Increase Separation? 削减现有员工的养老金会增加离职吗?
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3320704
Laura D. Quinby, Gal Wettstein
This study examines whether pension cuts affecting current public employees encourage mid-career teachers and civil servants to separate from their employers. The analysis takes advantage of a 2005 reform to the Employees’ Retirement System of Rhode Island (ERSRI) that dramatically reduced the generosity of benefits for current workers. Importantly, the cuts applied only to ERSRI members who had not vested by June 30, 2005. Vested ERSRI members and municipal government employees in Rhode Island were unaffected. This sharp difference in benefit generosity permits a triple-differences research design in which non-vested ERSRI members are compared, before and after the reform, to vested members and to all members of the Municipal Employees’ Retirement System of Rhode Island. The results show that the pension cut caused a 2.4-percentage-point increase in the rate of separation, implying an elasticity of labor supply with respect to pension benefits of around 0.25. Rhode Island teachers were significantly less responsive to the benefit cut than other occupations, in line with an existing literature on teacher labor supply, suggesting that the results from that literature may not generalize to the broader workforce.
本研究探讨影响在职公务员的退休金削减是否会鼓励处于职业生涯中期的教师和公务员离职。该分析利用了2005年对罗德岛州雇员退休制度(ERSRI)的改革,该改革大大减少了现有工人的福利慷慨程度。重要的是,减支只适用于在2005年6月30日之前尚未归属的退休退休基金成员。罗德岛州的ERSRI成员和市政府雇员没有受到影响。这种福利慷慨程度的显著差异允许进行三重差异研究设计,在该设计中,将改革前后的非归属ERSRI成员与归属成员和罗得岛州市政雇员退休制度的所有成员进行比较。结果显示,养老金削减导致离职率上升了2.4个百分点,这意味着劳动力供给相对于养老金福利的弹性约为0.25。罗德岛州的教师对福利削减的反应明显低于其他职业,这与现有的关于教师劳动力供应的文献一致,表明该文献的结果可能无法推广到更广泛的劳动力。
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引用次数: 7
Retiring Employees, Unretired Debt: The Surprising Hidden Cost of Federal Employee Pensions 退休雇员,未退休债务:联邦雇员养老金的惊人隐性成本
Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3188955
W. Robson, A. Laurin
Ottawa provides its employees with defined-benefit pensions that promise relatively generous benefits to a large current and former workforce. Being largely unfunded, these plans require future taxpayer support. They also create taxpayer risk because the economic value of the benefits they will provide can fluctuate by tens of billions of dollars annually. Current accounting practices understate this burden and the risks these plans create for taxpayers and, potentially, for the employees themselves. Official figures on the current cost of these plans and their accumulated obligations are based on notional interest rates that are too high for this kind of commitment. Since pension promises are guaranteed by taxpayers and indexed to inflation, the appropriate rate for discounting the value of future payments should be the yield on federal-government real-return bonds (RRB), which for years has been much lower than the assumed rate in official figures. Correcting this distortion would produce a fair-value estimate of $245.9 billion for Ottawa's unfunded pension liability at the end of 2016/17 – around $27,000 per family of four and $96 billion higher than the reported number. Because the unfunded pension liability is part of Ottawa’s debt, applying this fair-value adjustment raises the net public debt from the $631.9 billion reported at the end 2016/17 to an adjusted $727.9 billion. Recent federal pension reforms raised participants’ share of the funding costs for these plans: for the main Public Service Plan, the reforms aimed at a 50:50 split between contributions from participants and contributions from the government as employer. Still, using notional interest rates that are higher than the appropriate ones means that the reported costs of these plans – and, therefore, the contribution rates that determine participants’ shares – are too low. Even the higher employee contributions anticipated by the reforms would leave the taxpayers’ true share far above 50 percent. A fair-value approach to the current service cost would ensure that participants and taxpayers share equally the actual cost of accruing benefits. Even 50:50 sharing of federal pensions’ actual costs as they accrue would leave taxpayers exposed to fluctuations in the value of previously earned benefits. Ottawa could protect taxpayers from this risk by capping employer contributions at a fixed share of pensionable pay. To relieve taxpayers of their current sole responsibility for risks in the federal plans, Ottawa would need to switch to a different type of plan with benefits based not only on salary and years of service but also on the plans’ funded status. Such plans, already common in much of the provincial public sector, have a variety of labels – shared-risk and target-benefit are two common ones. Their common feature is that when things do not go as expected, the plan sponsor and the employees share the costs and benefits of the new reality. More economically meaningful reportin
渥太华为其员工提供固定收益养老金,承诺为大量现任和前任员工提供相对丰厚的福利。由于这些计划基本上没有资金,未来需要纳税人的支持。它们还会给纳税人带来风险,因为它们将提供的福利的经济价值每年可能波动数百亿美元。目前的会计惯例低估了这一负担,以及这些计划给纳税人、甚至可能给雇员本身带来的风险。有关这些计划当前成本及其累积债务的官方数据是基于名义利率的,对于此类承诺而言,名义利率过高。由于养老金承诺是由纳税人担保的,并与通货膨胀挂钩,因此未来支付的贴现率应该是联邦政府实际回报债券(RRB)的收益率,而这一收益率多年来一直远低于官方数据中的假设利率。纠正这一扭曲将产生2016/17年底渥太华无基金养老金负债的公允价值估计为2459亿美元-每个四口之家约27,000美元,比报告的数字高出960亿美元。由于无资金准备的养老金负债是渥太华债务的一部分,应用这一公允价值调整将使净公共债务从2016/17年底报告的6319亿加元增加到调整后的7279亿加元。最近的联邦养老金改革提高了参与者在这些计划的融资成本中所占的份额:对于主要的公共服务计划,改革的目标是在参与者和作为雇主的政府之间进行50:50的分摊。然而,使用高于适当利率的名义利率意味着,这些计划的报告成本——以及因此决定参与者份额的缴费率——太低了。即使是改革预期的更高的雇员贡献,纳税人的真实份额也将远远超过50%。对当前服务成本采用公允价值方法将确保参与人和纳税人平等分担累积福利的实际成本。即使联邦养老金的实际成本是50:50分摊,也会让纳税人面临先前获得的福利价值波动的风险。渥太华可以通过将雇主的贡献限制在养老金收入的固定份额来保护纳税人免受这种风险。为了减轻纳税人目前对联邦计划风险的唯一责任,渥太华将需要转向一种不同类型的计划,不仅基于工资和服务年限,还基于计划的资助状况。这样的计划在许多省级公共部门已经很普遍,有各种各样的标签——风险共担和目标收益是两个常见的标签。它们的共同特点是,当事情不像预期的那样发展时,计划发起人和员工共同分担新现实的成本和收益。对这些计划的福利价值及其对纳税人的成本进行更有经济意义的报告,将促进加拿大退休储蓄和收入体系的总体改善。它还将促进改革,为联邦雇员提供资金充足的养老金,为纳税人提供保护,使他们免受鲜为人知的风险。
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引用次数: 5
An Actuarial Perspective on Pension Plan Funding 养老金计划融资的精算视角
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2337142
Donald J. Segal
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) was established by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) to provide "insurance guarantees" for qualified pension plans insufficiently funded to provide accrued vested benefits. The PBGC’s annual reports on the liabilities for plans it has taken over and the agency’s assets show that the Single Employer Program has seen this "net position" vary from a surplus of almost $10 billion in 2000, to a deficit of over $29 billion in 2012. The PBGC uses a proprietary Pension Insurance Modeling System to model future scenarios for their obligations. This paper offers observations on future pension plan funding and how this could affect the PIMS model, based on the current environment, and how the agency might respond to change.
养老金福利担保公司(PBGC)是根据《雇员退休收入保障法》(ERISA)成立的,目的是为资金不足、无法提供累积既得福利的合格养老金计划提供“保险担保”。PBGC关于其接管的计划负债和机构资产的年度报告显示,单一雇主计划的“净头寸”从2000年的近100亿美元盈余到2012年的逾290亿美元赤字不等。PBGC使用专有的养老金保险建模系统对其义务的未来情景进行建模。本文提供了对未来养老金计划资金的观察,以及这将如何影响PIMS模型,基于当前的环境,以及该机构如何应对变化。
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引用次数: 1
The Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans: A Blueprint for Reform in New Jersey 公共部门养老金计划危机:新泽西州改革蓝图
Pub Date : 2010-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1991367
Eileen Norcross, Andrew G. Biggs
Pension plans operated by state governments on behalf of their employees are underfunded by an estimated $452 billion according to official reports,1 with total liabilities of $2.8 trillion and total assets of $2.3 trillion in 2008. However, many economists argue that even these daunting liabilities are understated. Current public sector accounting methods allow plans to assume they can earn highv investment returns without any risk. Using methods that are required for private sector pensions, which value pension liabilities according to likelihood of payment rather than the return expected on pension assets, total liabilities amount to $5.2 trillion and the unfunded liability rises to $3 trillion. The ability of governments to pay for the retirement benefits promised to public sector workers runs up against the reality of limited resources.
根据官方报告,州政府代表雇员运营的养老金计划资金不足约4520亿美元,2008年的总负债为2.8万亿美元,总资产为2.3万亿美元。然而,许多经济学家认为,即使是这些令人生畏的债务也被低估了。目前公共部门的会计方法允许计划假设他们可以在没有任何风险的情况下获得高投资回报。使用私营部门养老金所需的方法(根据养老金支付的可能性而不是养老金资产的预期回报来评估养老金负债),总负债达到5.2万亿美元,无资金准备的负债上升到3万亿美元。政府支付承诺给公共部门员工的退休福利的能力,与资源有限的现实发生了冲突。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
SIRN: Pension Coverage (Sub-Topic)
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