Pub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.002
Olusegun Michael Otunuga
In this work, we study the impact of treatments at different stages of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB) co-infection in a population under the influence of random perturbations. This is achieved by constructing a stochastic epidemic model describing the transmission and treatment of the diseases. The model is created with the assumption that transmission rates fluctuate rapidly compared to the evolution of the untreated diseases. The basic reproduction numbers corresponding to the population with HIV infection only (with n stages of infections and treatments), the population with tuberculosis infection only, and the overall population with co-infection (with n stages of infection/treatments) are derived in the presence and absence of noise perturbations. These are used to discuss the long term behavior of the population around a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium, and to analyze the effect of noise and treatments on the system. We also showed conditions under which TB infected population dynamic undergoes backward bifurcation and give conditions for disease eradication in the entire population. Analysis shows that small perturbations to the disease-free equilibrium can initially grow under certain conditions, and the introduction of TB treatment is effective in eliminating the co-infection. Numerical simulations are presented for validation of our results using published parameters.
{"title":"Analysis of the impact of treatments on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis co-infected population under random perturbations","authors":"Olusegun Michael Otunuga","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this work, we study the impact of treatments at different stages of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB) co-infection in a population under the influence of random perturbations. This is achieved by constructing a stochastic epidemic model describing the transmission and treatment of the diseases. The model is created with the assumption that transmission rates fluctuate rapidly compared to the evolution of the untreated diseases. The basic reproduction numbers corresponding to the population with HIV infection only (with <em>n</em> stages of infections and treatments), the population with tuberculosis infection only, and the overall population with co-infection (with <em>n</em> stages of infection/treatments) are derived in the presence and absence of noise perturbations. These are used to discuss the long term behavior of the population around a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium, and to analyze the effect of noise and treatments on the system. We also showed conditions under which TB infected population dynamic undergoes backward bifurcation and give conditions for disease eradication in the entire population. Analysis shows that small perturbations to the disease-free equilibrium can initially grow under certain conditions, and the introduction of TB treatment is effective in eliminating the co-infection. Numerical simulations are presented for validation of our results using published parameters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000921/pdfft?md5=0ca0b33557265a6e56eec68c5bce46a0&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000921-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138484703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.006
Paolo Di Giamberardino, Daniela Iacoviello, Muhammad Zubair
Prevention and early diagnosis are the best and most effective ways for defeating HIV. There is still no vaccine, but treatments with antiretroviral drugs are now available which, in many cases, allow the infection to become chronic. However, research has highlighted side effects of these drugs and the fact that a flare-up of the infection occurs if the therapy is stopped. In recent years, the presence of virus reserves located in various parts of the body, including the brain, has been hypothesized. The possibility of controlling the infection of healthy cells and of interrupting the proliferation of virions inside the brain has been studied, proposing optimal control strategies.
{"title":"Optimal therapy for HIV infection containment and virions inhibition","authors":"Paolo Di Giamberardino, Daniela Iacoviello, Muhammad Zubair","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Prevention and early diagnosis are the best and most effective ways for defeating HIV. There is still no vaccine, but treatments with antiretroviral drugs are now available which, in many cases, allow the infection to become chronic. However, research has highlighted side effects of these drugs and the fact that a flare-up of the infection occurs if the therapy is stopped. In recent years, the presence of virus reserves located in various parts of the body, including the brain, has been hypothesized. The possibility of controlling the infection of healthy cells and of interrupting the proliferation of virions inside the brain has been studied, proposing optimal control strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000969/pdfft?md5=862aab964d0deca231814c99ab4df165&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000969-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135764966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.001
Zhaobin Xu , Jian Song , Weidong Liu , Dongqing Wei
Accurate prediction of the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 infection is of paramount importance for effective epidemic prevention and control. In order to accomplish this objective, we incorporated individual antibody dynamics into an agent-based model and devised a methodology that encompasses the dynamic behaviors of each individual, thereby explicitly capturing the count and spatial distribution of infected individuals with varying symptoms at distinct time points. Our model also permits the evaluation of diverse prevention and control measures. Based on our findings, the widespread employment of nucleic acid testing and the implementation of quarantine measures for positive cases and their close contacts in China have yielded remarkable outcomes in curtailing a less transmissible yet more virulent strain; however, they may prove inadequate against highly transmissible and less virulent variants. Additionally, our model excels in its ability to trace back to the initial infected case (patient zero) through early epidemic patterns. Ultimately, our model extends the frontiers of traditional epidemiological simulation methodologies and offers an alternative approach to epidemic modeling.
{"title":"An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation","authors":"Zhaobin Xu , Jian Song , Weidong Liu , Dongqing Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate prediction of the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 infection is of paramount importance for effective epidemic prevention and control. In order to accomplish this objective, we incorporated individual antibody dynamics into an agent-based model and devised a methodology that encompasses the dynamic behaviors of each individual, thereby explicitly capturing the count and spatial distribution of infected individuals with varying symptoms at distinct time points. Our model also permits the evaluation of diverse prevention and control measures. Based on our findings, the widespread employment of nucleic acid testing and the implementation of quarantine measures for positive cases and their close contacts in China have yielded remarkable outcomes in curtailing a less transmissible yet more virulent strain; however, they may prove inadequate against highly transmissible and less virulent variants. Additionally, our model excels in its ability to trace back to the initial infected case (patient zero) through early epidemic patterns. Ultimately, our model extends the frontiers of traditional epidemiological simulation methodologies and offers an alternative approach to epidemic modeling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272300091X/pdfft?md5=5af68c3419d23dc9cd6737b510ef1557&pid=1-s2.0-S246804272300091X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109182373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.004
Dustin T. Hill , Mohammed A. Alazawi , E. Joe Moran , Lydia J. Bennett , Ian Bradley , Mary B. Collins , Christopher J. Gobler , Hyatt Green , Tabassum Z. Insaf , Brittany Kmush , Dana Neigel , Shailla Raymond , Mian Wang , Yinyin Ye , David A. Larsen
Background
The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data.
Methods
Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties, we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29, 2020 to June 30, 2022. We included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county, comorbidities, demographic variables, and holiday gatherings.
Findings
Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to admission. Models that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only, increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%. Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions (r = 0.77) with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000 (95% CI = [0.002, 0.025])
Interpretation
Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data alone. The lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.
背景:针对COVID-19的公共卫生应对措施已转向减少死亡和住院,以防止卫生系统不堪重负。已知废水中SARS-CoV-2 RNA片段的数量与临床数据相关,包括COVID-19病例和住院人数。我们利用废水数据开发并测试了纽约州新冠肺炎住院事件的预测模型。方法利用56个县1380万人的县级新冠肺炎住院病例和废水监测数据,拟合一个广义线性混合模型,预测2020年4月29日至2022年6月30日新住院病例的废水浓度。我们纳入了协变量,如县的COVID-19疫苗覆盖率、合并症、人口统计变量和假日聚会。发现污水中SARS-CoV-2 RNA的浓度与入院前10天每10万人的新入院人数相关。包含废水的模型比仅包含临床病例的模型具有更高的预测能力,将模型的准确性提高了15%。预测住院率与观察住院率高度相关(r = 0.77),平均差值为0.013 / 10万(95% CI =[0.002, 0.025])解释利用废水预测未来COVID-19住院率准确有效,结果优于单独使用病例数据。10天的提前期可以提醒公众采取预防措施,并改善季节性疫情的资源分配。
{"title":"Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study","authors":"Dustin T. Hill , Mohammed A. Alazawi , E. Joe Moran , Lydia J. Bennett , Ian Bradley , Mary B. Collins , Christopher J. Gobler , Hyatt Green , Tabassum Z. Insaf , Brittany Kmush , Dana Neigel , Shailla Raymond , Mian Wang , Yinyin Ye , David A. Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties, we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29, 2020 to June 30, 2022. We included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county, comorbidities, demographic variables, and holiday gatherings.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to admission. Models that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only, increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%. Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions (r = 0.77) with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000 (95% CI = [0.002, 0.025])</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data alone. The lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000891/pdfft?md5=dfea8404b502ec2d4375324ee2ba13bb&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000891-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92026377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.002
Punya Alahakoon , James M. McCaw , Peter G. Taylor
As most disease causing pathogens require transmission from an infectious individual to a susceptible individual, continued persistence of the pathogen within the population requires the replenishment of susceptibles through births, immigration, or waning immunity.
Consider the introduction of an unknown infectious disease into a fully susceptible population where it is not known how long immunity is conferred once an individual recovers from infection. If, initially, the prevalence of disease increases (that is, the infection takes off), the number of infectives will usually decrease to a low level after the first major outbreak. During this post-outbreak period, the disease dynamics may be influenced by stochastic effects and there is a non-zero probability that the epidemic will die out. Die out in this period following the first major outbreak is known as an epidemic fade-out. If the disease does not die out, the susceptible population may be replenished by the waning of immunity, and a second wave may start.
In this study, we investigate if the rate of waning immunity (and other epidemiological parameters) can be reliably estimated from multiple outbreak data, in which some outbreaks display epidemic fade-out and others do not. We generated synthetic outbreak data from independent simulations of stochastic SIRS models in multiple communities. Some outbreaks faded-out and some did not. We conducted Bayesian parameter estimation under two alternative approaches: independently on each outbreak and under a hierarchical framework. When conducting independent estimation, the waning immunity rate was poorly estimated and biased towards zero when an epidemic fade-out was observed. However, under a hierarchical approach, we obtained more accurate and precise posterior estimates for the rate of waning immunity and other epidemiological parameters. The greatest improvement in estimates was obtained for those communities in which epidemic fade-out was observed.
Our findings demonstrate the feasibility and value of adopting a Bayesian hierarchical approach for parameter inference for stochastic epidemic models.
{"title":"Improving estimates of waning immunity rates in stochastic SIRS models with a hierarchical framework","authors":"Punya Alahakoon , James M. McCaw , Peter G. Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As most disease causing pathogens require transmission from an infectious individual to a susceptible individual, continued persistence of the pathogen within the population requires the replenishment of susceptibles through births, immigration, or waning immunity.</p><p>Consider the introduction of an unknown infectious disease into a fully susceptible population where it is not known how long immunity is conferred once an individual recovers from infection. If, initially, the prevalence of disease increases (that is, the infection takes off), the number of infectives will usually decrease to a low level after the first major outbreak. During this post-outbreak period, the disease dynamics may be influenced by stochastic effects and there is a non-zero probability that the epidemic will die out. Die out in this period following the first major outbreak is known as an epidemic fade-out. If the disease does not die out, the susceptible population may be replenished by the waning of immunity, and a second wave may start.</p><p>In this study, we investigate if the rate of waning immunity (and other epidemiological parameters) can be reliably estimated from multiple outbreak data, in which some outbreaks display epidemic fade-out and others do not. We generated synthetic outbreak data from independent simulations of stochastic <em>SIRS</em> models in multiple communities. Some outbreaks faded-out and some did not. We conducted Bayesian parameter estimation under two alternative approaches: independently on each outbreak and under a hierarchical framework. When conducting independent estimation, the waning immunity rate was poorly estimated and biased towards zero when an epidemic fade-out was observed. However, under a hierarchical approach, we obtained more accurate and precise posterior estimates for the rate of waning immunity and other epidemiological parameters. The greatest improvement in estimates was obtained for those communities in which epidemic fade-out was observed.</p><p>Our findings demonstrate the feasibility and value of adopting a Bayesian hierarchical approach for parameter inference for stochastic epidemic models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49888180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.003
Wenjie Li , Ye Yao
Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission. Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the spreading process of infectious diseases. We used Baidu Migration data for the whole year of 2021 to build mobility networks. The nodes of the network represent cities, and the edges represent the population flow between cities. By applying the k-shell decomposition and the Louvain algorithm, we could get the k-shell values for each city and community partition. Then, we identified the most efficient nodes or pathways in a complex network by generating random networks. Furthermore, we analyzed the eigenvalue of the migration matrix to find the nodes that have the most impact on the network. We also found the consistency between k-shell value and eigenvalue through Kendall's test. The main result is that in Spring Festival and National Day, the network is at higher risk of an infectious disease outbreak and the Yangtze River Delta is at the highest risk of an epidemic all year around. Shanghai is the most significant node in both k-shell value and eigenvalue analysis. The spatiotemporal property of the network should be taken into account to model the transmission of infectious diseases more accurately.
{"title":"The spatiotemporal analysis of the population migration network in China, 2021","authors":"Wenjie Li , Ye Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission. Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the spreading process of infectious diseases. We used Baidu Migration data for the whole year of 2021 to build mobility networks. The nodes of the network represent cities, and the edges represent the population flow between cities. By applying the k-shell decomposition and the Louvain algorithm, we could get the k-shell values for each city and community partition. Then, we identified the most efficient nodes or pathways in a complex network by generating random networks. Furthermore, we analyzed the eigenvalue of the migration matrix to find the nodes that have the most impact on the network. We also found the consistency between k-shell value and eigenvalue through Kendall's <span><math><mrow><mi>τ</mi></mrow></math></span> test. The main result is that in Spring Festival and National Day, the network is at higher risk of an infectious disease outbreak and the Yangtze River Delta is at the highest risk of an epidemic all year around. Shanghai is the most significant node in both k-shell value and eigenvalue analysis. The spatiotemporal property of the network should be taken into account to model the transmission of infectious diseases more accurately.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49888181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-05DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001
Han Li , Jianping Huang , Xinbo Lian , Yingjie Zhao , Wei Yan , Li Zhang , Licheng Li
COVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations, and environmental conditions, with interpersonal interactions and large-scale activities being particularly pivotal. To unravel these complexities, we used a modified SEIR epidemiological model to simulate various outbreak scenarios during the holiday season, incorporating both inter-regional and intra-regional human mobility effects into the parameterization scheme. In addition, evaluation metrics were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation by comparing the congruence between simulated results and recorded confirmed cases. The findings suggested that intra-city mobility led to an average surge of 57.35% in confirmed cases of China, while inter-city mobility contributed to an average increase of 15.18%. In the simulation for Tianjin, China, a one-week delay in human mobility attenuated the peak number of cases by 34.47% and postponed the peak time by 6 days. The simulation for the United States revealed that human mobility played a more pronounced part in the outbreak, with a notable disparity in peak cases when mobility was considered. This study highlights that while inter-regional mobility acted as a trigger for the epidemic spread, the diffusion effect of intra-regional mobility was primarily responsible for the outbreak. We have a better understanding on how human mobility and infectious disease epidemics interact, and provide empirical evidence that could contribute to disease prevention and control measures.
{"title":"Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays","authors":"Han Li , Jianping Huang , Xinbo Lian , Yingjie Zhao , Wei Yan , Li Zhang , Licheng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>COVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations, and environmental conditions, with interpersonal interactions and large-scale activities being particularly pivotal. To unravel these complexities, we used a modified SEIR epidemiological model to simulate various outbreak scenarios during the holiday season, incorporating both inter-regional and intra-regional human mobility effects into the parameterization scheme. In addition, evaluation metrics were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation by comparing the congruence between simulated results and recorded confirmed cases. The findings suggested that intra-city mobility led to an average surge of 57.35% in confirmed cases of China, while inter-city mobility contributed to an average increase of 15.18%. In the simulation for Tianjin, China, a one-week delay in human mobility attenuated the peak number of cases by 34.47% and postponed the peak time by 6 days. The simulation for the United States revealed that human mobility played a more pronounced part in the outbreak, with a notable disparity in peak cases when mobility was considered. This study highlights that while inter-regional mobility acted as a trigger for the epidemic spread, the diffusion effect of intra-regional mobility was primarily responsible for the outbreak. We have a better understanding on how human mobility and infectious disease epidemics interact, and provide empirical evidence that could contribute to disease prevention and control measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/93/3f/main.PMC10582379.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49685538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.003
Yujie Chen , Yao Wang , Jieqing Chen , Xudong Ma , Longxiang Su , Yuna Wei , Linfeng Li , Dandan Ma , Feng Zhang , Wen Zhu , Xiaoyang Meng , Guoqiang Sun , Lian Ma , Huizhen Jiang , Chang Yin , Taisheng Li , Xiang Zhou , China National Critical Care Quality Control Center Group
Purpose
To establish dynamic prediction models by machine learning using daily multidimensional data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.
Methods
Hospitalized COVID-19 patients at Peking Union Medical College Hospital from Nov 2nd, 2022, to Jan 13th, 2023, were enrolled in this study. The outcome was defined as deterioration or recovery of the patient's condition. Demographics, comorbidities, laboratory test results, vital signs, and treatments were used to train the model. To predict the following days, a separate XGBoost model was trained and validated. The Shapley additive explanations method was used to analyze feature importance.
Results
A total of 995 patients were enrolled, generating 7228 and 3170 observations for each prediction model. In the deterioration prediction model, the minimum area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the following 7 days was 0.786 (95% CI 0.721–0.851), while the AUROC on the next day was 0.872 (0.831–0.913). In the recovery prediction model, the minimum AUROC for the following 3 days was 0.675 (0.583–0.767), while the AUROC on the next day was 0.823 (0.770–0.876). The top 5 features for deterioration prediction on the 7th day were disease course, length of hospital stay, hypertension, and diastolic blood pressure. Those for recovery prediction on the 3rd day were age, D-dimer levels, disease course, creatinine levels and corticosteroid therapy.
Conclusion
The models could accurately predict the dynamics of Omicron patients’ conditions using daily multidimensional variables, revealing important features including comorbidities (e.g., hyperlipidemia), age, disease course, vital signs, D-dimer levels, corticosteroid therapy and oxygen therapy.
目的利用2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)患者日常多维数据,建立机器学习动态预测模型。方法选取2022年11月2日至2023年1月13日在北京协和医院住院的COVID-19患者为研究对象。结果被定义为患者病情的恶化或恢复。使用人口统计学、合并症、实验室检测结果、生命体征和治疗来训练模型。为了预测接下来的时间,我们训练并验证了一个单独的XGBoost模型。采用Shapley加性解释法分析特征重要性。结果共纳入995例患者,每个预测模型分别产生7228和3170个观察值。在恶化预测模型中,受试者工作特征曲线(AUROC)下7天的最小面积为0.786 (95% CI 0.721-0.851),次日的AUROC为0.872(0.831-0.913)。在恢复预测模型中,接下来3天的AUROC最小值为0.675(0.583-0.767),第二天的AUROC最小值为0.823(0.770-0.876)。预测第7天病情恶化的前5个特征是病程、住院时间、高血压和舒张压。预测第3天恢复的指标为年龄、d -二聚体水平、病程、肌酐水平和皮质类固醇治疗。结论该模型可以利用日常多维变量准确预测Omicron患者的病情动态,揭示合并症(如高脂血症)、年龄、病程、生命体征、d -二聚体水平、皮质类固醇治疗和氧治疗等重要特征。
{"title":"Multidimensional dynamic prediction model for hospitalized patients with the omicron variant in China","authors":"Yujie Chen , Yao Wang , Jieqing Chen , Xudong Ma , Longxiang Su , Yuna Wei , Linfeng Li , Dandan Ma , Feng Zhang , Wen Zhu , Xiaoyang Meng , Guoqiang Sun , Lian Ma , Huizhen Jiang , Chang Yin , Taisheng Li , Xiang Zhou , China National Critical Care Quality Control Center Group","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><p>To establish dynamic prediction models by machine learning using daily multidimensional data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Hospitalized COVID-19 patients at Peking Union Medical College Hospital from Nov 2nd, 2022, to Jan 13th, 2023, were enrolled in this study. The outcome was defined as deterioration or recovery of the patient's condition. Demographics, comorbidities, laboratory test results, vital signs, and treatments were used to train the model. To predict the following days, a separate XGBoost model was trained and validated. The Shapley additive explanations method was used to analyze feature importance.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>A total of 995 patients were enrolled, generating 7228 and 3170 observations for each prediction model. In the deterioration prediction model, the minimum area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the following 7 days was 0.786 (95% CI 0.721–0.851), while the AUROC on the next day was 0.872 (0.831–0.913). In the recovery prediction model, the minimum AUROC for the following 3 days was 0.675 (0.583–0.767), while the AUROC on the next day was 0.823 (0.770–0.876). The top 5 features for deterioration prediction on the 7th day were disease course, length of hospital stay, hypertension, and diastolic blood pressure. Those for recovery prediction on the 3rd day were age, D-dimer levels, disease course, creatinine levels and corticosteroid therapy.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The models could accurately predict the dynamics of Omicron patients’ conditions using daily multidimensional variables, revealing important features including comorbidities (e.g., hyperlipidemia), age, disease course, vital signs, D-dimer levels, corticosteroid therapy and oxygen therapy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/1a/50/main.PMC10579104.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49685539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This work addresses the problem of supervised classification for highly correlated high-dimensional data describing non-independent observations to identify SNPs related to a phenotype. We use a general penalized linear mixed model with a single random effect that performs simultaneous SNP selection and population structure adjustment in high-dimensional prediction models. Specifically, the model simultaneously selects variables and estimates their effects, taking into account correlations between individuals.
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are a type of genetic variation and each SNP represents a difference in a single DNA building block, namely a nucleotide. Previous research has shown that SNPs can be used to identify the correct source population of an individual and can act in isolation or simultaneously to impact a phenotype. In this regard, the study of the contribution of genetics in infectious disease phenotypes is of great importance.
In this study, we used uncorrelated variables from the construction of blocks of correlated variables done in a previous work to describe the most related observations of the dataset. The model was trained with 90% of the observations and tested with the remaining 10%. The best model obtained with the generalized information criterion (GIC) identified the SNP named rs2493311 located on the first chromosome of the gene called PRDM16 ((PR/SET domain 16)) as the most decisive factor in malaria attacks.
{"title":"High-dimensional supervised classification in a context of non-independence of observations to identify the determining SNPs in a phenotype","authors":"Aboubacry Gaye , Abdou Ka Diongue , Lionel Nanguep Komen , Amadou Diallo , Seydou Nourou Sylla , Maryam Diarra , Cheikh Talla , Cheikh Loucoubar","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This work addresses the problem of supervised classification for highly correlated high-dimensional data describing non-independent observations to identify SNPs related to a phenotype. We use a general penalized linear mixed model with a single random effect that performs simultaneous SNP selection and population structure adjustment in high-dimensional prediction models. Specifically, the model simultaneously selects variables and estimates their effects, taking into account correlations between individuals.</p><p>Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are a type of genetic variation and each SNP represents a difference in a single DNA building block, namely a nucleotide. Previous research has shown that SNPs can be used to identify the correct source population of an individual and can act in isolation or simultaneously to impact a phenotype. In this regard, the study of the contribution of genetics in infectious disease phenotypes is of great importance.</p><p>In this study, we used uncorrelated variables from the construction of blocks of correlated variables done in a previous work to describe the most related observations of the dataset. The model was trained with 90% of the observations and tested with the remaining 10%. The best model obtained with the generalized information criterion (GIC) identified the SNP named rs2493311 located on the first chromosome of the gene called PRDM16 ((PR/SET domain 16)) as the most decisive factor in malaria attacks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/a7/8f/main.PMC10505671.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41171177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-05DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.001
Dashan Zheng , Lingzhi Shen , Wanqi Wen , Feng Ling , Ziping Miao , Jimin Sun , Hualiang Lin
Objective
To estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang Province.
Methods
We utilized the longitudinal surveillance dataset of HFMD and EV71 vaccination in Zhejiang Province during 2010–2019. We estimated vaccine efficacy using a Bayesian structured time series (BSTS) model, and employed a negative control outcome (NCO) model to detect unmeasured confounding and reveal potential causal association.
Results
We estimated that 20,132 EV71 cases (95% CI: 16,733, 23,532) were prevented by vaccination program during 2017–2019, corresponding to a reduction of 29% (95% CI: 24%, 34%). The effectiveness of vaccination increased annually, with reductions of 11% (95% CI: 6%, 16%) in 2017 and 66% (95% CI: 61%, 71%) in 2019. Children under 5 years old obtained greater benefits compared to those over 5 years. Cities with higher vaccination coverage experienced a sharper EV71 reduction compared to those with lower coverage. The NCO model detected no confounding factors in the association between vaccination and EV71 cases reduction.
Conclusions
This study suggested a potential causal effect of the EV71 vaccination, highlighting the importance of achieving higher vaccine coverage to control the HFMD.
{"title":"The impact of EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, China: A negative control study","authors":"Dashan Zheng , Lingzhi Shen , Wanqi Wen , Feng Ling , Ziping Miao , Jimin Sun , Hualiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>To estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang Province.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We utilized the longitudinal surveillance dataset of HFMD and EV71 vaccination in Zhejiang Province during 2010–2019. We estimated vaccine efficacy using a Bayesian structured time series (BSTS) model, and employed a negative control outcome (NCO) model to detect unmeasured confounding and reveal potential causal association.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>We estimated that 20,132 EV71 cases (95% CI: 16,733, 23,532) were prevented by vaccination program during 2017–2019, corresponding to a reduction of 29% (95% CI: 24%, 34%). The effectiveness of vaccination increased annually, with reductions of 11% (95% CI: 6%, 16%) in 2017 and 66% (95% CI: 61%, 71%) in 2019. Children under 5 years old obtained greater benefits compared to those over 5 years. Cities with higher vaccination coverage experienced a sharper EV71 reduction compared to those with lower coverage. The NCO model detected no confounding factors in the association between vaccination and EV71 cases reduction.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This study suggested a potential causal effect of the EV71 vaccination, highlighting the importance of achieving higher vaccine coverage to control the HFMD.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10514095/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41141907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}