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Feasibility of eliminating adult hepatitis B in Guangdong by 2030: A modeling study 2030年广东省消除成人乙肝的可行性：一项模型研究

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.008

Ning Sun , Xiaoping Shao , Chen Hou , Xiaowen Wei , Weizhao Lin , Ying Yang , Liang Chen , Chitin Hon , Guanghu Zhu , Jiufeng Sun , Limei Sun

Objectives

Eliminating hepatitis B remains challenging, especially in Guangdong, the region with China's highest burden. Predicting incidence, optimizing vaccination, and reducing illness are essential to meet the WHO goal of a 90 % reduction by 2030.

Methods

Based on the HBV surveillance data from 2005 to 2022, disease clustering patterns, correlation between vaccination and incidence were determined. A six-compartment transmission model was established and validated by estimating infectivity using nonlinear least squares and polynomial fitting.

Results

From 2005 to 2022, acute HBV cases in Guangdong declined from 7509 to 2,097, while chronic cases in adults aged ≥15 rose from 38,595 to 146,658. High-risk clusters remained in Guangzhou, Foshan, and Shenzhen. Infant vaccination was linked to reduced acute infections but had limited effect on chronic cases. By 2030, acute HBV infectivity is projected to reach 1872 cases, with 100,354 new chronic infections expected in adults. To meet the WHO 2030 elimination target, average recovery time for chronic carriers must be reduced from 40 years to 7.7 years. For full elimination, it should be shortened to 1.85 years.

Conclusions

Infant vaccination curbed acute HBV in youth, but chronic cases in adults threaten elimination goals. Scaling therapies to accelerate chronic HBV recovery is urgent.

消除乙型肝炎仍然具有挑战性，特别是在中国乙肝负担最高的广东省。预测发病率、优化疫苗接种和减少疾病对于实现世卫组织到2030年减少90%的目标至关重要。方法基于2005 - 2022年乙型肝炎病毒监测数据，分析疾病聚类模式、疫苗接种与发病率的相关性。采用非线性最小二乘法和多项式拟合方法，建立了六室传染模型，并对模型进行了验证。结果2005年至2022年，广东省急性HBV病例从7509例下降到2097例，而15岁以上成人慢性HBV病例从38595例上升到146658例。广州、佛山和深圳仍是高危聚集区。婴儿疫苗接种与减少急性感染有关，但对慢性病例的影响有限。到2030年，预计急性HBV感染病例将达到1872例，预计成人中将有100,354例新发慢性感染。为实现世卫组织2030年消除疟疾的目标，慢性携带者的平均康复时间必须从40年减少到7.7年。如果要完全消除，寿命应该缩短到1.85年。结论婴儿疫苗接种抑制了青少年的急性HBV，但成人的慢性病例威胁到消除目标。扩大治疗以加速慢性乙型肝炎病毒的恢复是迫切需要的。

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引用次数: 0

Applications and reporting of causal inference modelling in infectious disease studies: A systematic review 因果推理模型在传染病研究中的应用和报告：系统综述

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.006

Yukiko Ezure , Mark Chatfield , David L. Paterson , Lisa Hall

Causal inference is increasingly employed in infectious disease (ID) epidemiology. Despite the increasing adoption of causal inference methods in infectious disease research, there has been no comprehensive review of their implementation trends, estimation approaches, and key specifications. A systematic examination of how these methods were being applied in practice could identify both successful strategies and common pitfalls. This systematic review aimed to describe the usage and reporting of causal methods in observational ID studies. The applications of causal methods in the analyses of ID observational data were identified from systematic searches of PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus. Our analysis focused on detailing the adoption trends of causal inference methods and assessing the comprehensiveness of their reporting and publication between 2010 and 2023. Of the 172 studies, the majority utilised propensity score-based methods (n = 133, 77 %). We identified only 39 studies that explicitly described the use of causal frameworks and employed variations of causal analyses. The most common reason for using causal methods was to address time-varying variables that are prominent in ID research. Consequently, a common approach used was inverse probability treatment weighting with the marginal structural model; additionally, targeted maximum likelihood estimation has become popular in minimising bias.

There is substantial variation in reporting causal methods in ID research. Development of reporting guidelines is needed for clear reporting alongside training on how to use and appraise applications of causal inference in observational ID research. This is particularly important for ID modelling, where time-varying factors and complex transmissions and dynamics of treatment often necessitate complex modelling approaches.

因果推理越来越多地应用于传染病流行病学。尽管在传染病研究中越来越多地采用因果推理方法，但尚未对其实施趋势、估计方法和关键规范进行全面审查。对这些方法在实践中如何应用进行系统的检查，既可以确定成功的策略，也可以确定常见的缺陷。本系统综述旨在描述因果方法在观察性ID研究中的使用和报告。因果方法在ID观测数据分析中的应用是通过PubMed、Medline、Web of Science和Scopus的系统搜索确定的。我们的分析重点是详细介绍因果推理方法的采用趋势，并评估其报告和出版在2010年至2023年间的全面性。在这172项研究中，大多数使用了基于倾向得分的方法（n = 133,77 %）。我们发现只有39项研究明确描述了因果框架的使用，并采用了因果分析的变体。使用因果方法的最常见原因是解决在ID研究中突出的时变变量。因此，常用的方法是利用边际结构模型进行逆概率处理加权；此外，有针对性的最大似然估计在最小化偏差方面已经变得流行。在ID研究中，报告因果关系的方法有很大的差异。需要制定报告准则，以便明确报告，同时培训如何在观察性ID研究中使用和评估因果推理的应用。这对ID建模尤其重要，因为时变因素和复杂的传输和治疗动态往往需要复杂的建模方法。

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引用次数: 0

Vaccination games of boundedly rational parents toward new childhood immunization 有限理性父母对儿童新免疫的接种博弈

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.004

Wei Yin , Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah , Tamer Oraby

Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal well-being. However, societies can hinder efforts to control the spread of diseases by failing to adhere to public health recommendations, such as through vaccine hesitancy. Various disease-transmission models have been utilized to help policymakers respond to (re)emerging outbreaks. The usefulness of such models in assessing the effectiveness of public health policies is significantly dependent on human behavior. This paper introduces a new model of parental behavior toward a new childhood immunization. The model incorporates societal features, social norms, and bounded rationality. We integrate this model with the dynamics of childhood disease, as depicted by a standard susceptible-infected-recovered model, to offer a detailed perspective on vaccine acceptance dynamics. We found that the behavioral model provides a new population game theory's replicator dynamical equation with an entropy-like term. Interestingly, societal norms and bounded rationality play a crucial role in shaping vaccine uptake through a novel function, which we term the critical societal vaccine cost. The results suggest that reduced vaccine costs below the critical societal vaccine cost and higher initial acceptance rates increase the probability of disease elimination. A gradual increase in vaccination costs, as an adaptive dynamic policy for disease eradication, is also possible. In particular, strong social norms and low levels of bounded rationality positively contribute to disease eradication even when the basic reproduction number of the disease in that society is large.

传染病通过疾病引起的发病率、死亡率、生产力丧失和不平等对社会造成危害。因此，控制和预防它们对公共卫生和社会福祉至关重要。然而，社会可能会因为不遵守公共卫生建议而阻碍控制疾病传播的努力，例如通过疫苗犹豫。已利用各种疾病传播模型来帮助决策者应对（重新）出现的疫情。这些模型在评估公共卫生政策有效性方面的有用性在很大程度上取决于人的行为。本文介绍了一种新的儿童免疫接种的父母行为模型。该模型结合了社会特征、社会规范和有限理性。我们将这个模型与儿童疾病的动态结合起来，通过一个标准的易感-感染-康复模型来描述，以提供一个关于疫苗接受动态的详细视角。研究发现，该行为模型提供了一个新的种群博弈论复制因子动力学方程，该方程具有类熵项。有趣的是，社会规范和有限理性通过一种新的功能在塑造疫苗摄取方面发挥了至关重要的作用，我们称之为关键的社会疫苗成本。结果表明，将疫苗成本降低到临界社会疫苗成本以下和提高初始接受率可以增加疾病消除的可能性。逐步增加疫苗接种费用，作为一种消除疾病的适应性动态政策，也是可能的。特别是，强烈的社会规范和低水平的有限理性，即使在疾病在社会中的基本繁殖数量很大的情况下，也对疾病的根除起到了积极的作用。

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引用次数: 0

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.005

Ruohan Chen , Jia Wan , Dongfeng Kong , Cong Niu , Zengyang Shao , Chijun Zhang , Mingda Xu , Yuan Bai , Eric Lau , Zhen Zhang , Zhanwei Du

Mpox, a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox, has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23, primarily linked to close intimate contact. In China, mpox cases surged in June 2023, with nearly a quarter of new cases concentrated in Guangdong Province, particularly Shenzhen. This study aimed to estimate the importation risk of mpox cases from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023, utilizing cross-regional population mobility data from January to October 2023. The analysis focused on local transmission in Hong Kong and the probability of mpox importation into Shenzhen. Results revealed a significant importation risk, with over a 50 % chance of at least one travel-based mpox case from Hong Kong in June 2023. The study underscores the necessity of enhancing inbound surveillance for travelers from high mpox prevalence regions. It is suggested that regional governments implement tailored strategies, including enhanced surveillance and dynamic risk assessment for effective cross-border disease management, supported by robust monitoring and coordinated actions across jurisdictions.

Mpox是一种病毒性人畜共患疾病，以前称为猴痘，在2022-23年多个国家暴发后引起了全球关注，主要与密切接触有关。在中国，mpox病例在2023年6月激增，近四分之一的新病例集中在广东省，特别是深圳。本研究旨在利用2023年1 - 10月的跨区域人口流动数据，估计2023年香港到深圳的麻疹病例输入风险。分析的重点是在香港的本地传播和m痘输入到深圳的可能性。结果显示存在显著的输入风险，2023年6月香港至少有一例基于旅行的麻疹病例的可能性超过50%。该研究强调有必要加强对来自麻疹高流行地区的旅行者的入境监测。建议区域政府实施有针对性的战略，包括加强监测和动态风险评估，以实现有效的跨界疾病管理，并辅以强有力的监测和跨管辖区协调行动。

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引用次数: 0

Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread 应用类型和目标繁殖数评价日本各县对疾病传播的影响

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.003

Toshikazu Kuniya

In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each prefecture in Japan. Regarding these values as a kind of network centrality measure, we discuss which prefectures are influential on the disease spread in Japan. We show that the values of the type reproduction number are relatively high in 10 prefectures consisting of Hokkaido, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka. In particular, by calculating the target reproduction number, we show that Tokyo and Kyoto could be the most influential on the disease spread, and the population mobility between the Kanto and Kansai regions could be the key factor for the nationwide epidemic in Japan.

本研究将日本2019-2023年7月、8月和9月的人口流动数据应用于多群流行病模型，计算日本各县的人口流动类型和目标再生产数量。将这些值作为一种网络中心性度量，讨论了哪些县对日本的疾病传播有影响。结果表明，北海道、埼玉、千叶、东京、神奈川、爱知县、京都、大阪、兵库县和福冈等10个县的类型繁殖数较高。特别是，通过计算目标繁殖数，我们发现东京和京都可能对疾病传播影响最大，关东和关西地区之间的人口流动可能是日本全国流行的关键因素。

引用次数: 0

Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model 基于数据验证周期模型的结核病传播动力学与最优控制

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.002

Chenkai Guo, Peng Wu

China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary to study the contribution of adolescents to the transmission of tuberculosis. Given that tuberculosis in mainland China exhibits periodic transmission characteristics, a non-autonomous differential equation model that considers age stage and periodic transmission has been proposed. We derived the basic reproduction number R₀ of this model and proved the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when R₀ < 1, as well as the persistence of the disease when R₀ > 1. We estimated the basic reproduction number R₀ = 1.18, which indicates that tuberculosis in mainland China is of low endemicity. Sensitivity analysis tells us that the adolescent group has a significant impact on the transmission of tuberculosis and is an indispensable force. Furthermore, we constructed a tuberculosis transmission control model and proposed four optimal control strategies, calculated the strategy-related benefits (ACER) and the incremental benefits between strategies (ICER), and further provided targeted recommendations for controlling tuberculosis transmission among different groups.

中国是全球结核病（TB）发病率的第三大贡献者，不同年龄组的结核病患病率存在显著差异。因此，有必要研究青少年对结核病传播的贡献。鉴于中国大陆结核病具有周期性传播特征，本文提出了一个考虑年龄阶段和周期性传播的非自治微分方程模型。导出了该模型的基本繁殖数R0，并证明了R0 >； 1时无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性，以及R0 >； 1时疾病的持续性。估计基本繁殖数R0 = 1.18，表明结核病在中国大陆的流行程度较低。敏感性分析告诉我们，青少年群体对结核病的传播有重大影响，是不可或缺的力量。构建结核传播控制模型，提出4种最优控制策略，计算策略相关效益（ACER）和策略间增量效益（ICER），为不同人群间控制结核传播提供针对性建议。

{"title":"Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model","authors":"Chenkai Guo, Peng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary to study the contribution of adolescents to the transmission of tuberculosis. Given that tuberculosis in mainland China exhibits periodic transmission characteristics, a non-autonomous differential equation model that considers age stage and periodic transmission has been proposed. We derived the basic reproduction number <em>R</em><sub>0</sub> of this model and proved the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when <em>R</em><sub>0</sub> < 1, as well as the persistence of the disease when <em>R</em><sub>0</sub> > 1. We estimated the basic reproduction number <em>R</em><sub>0</sub> = 1.18, which indicates that tuberculosis in mainland China is of low endemicity. Sensitivity analysis tells us that the adolescent group has a significant impact on the transmission of tuberculosis and is an indispensable force. Furthermore, we constructed a tuberculosis transmission control model and proposed four optimal control strategies, calculated the strategy-related benefits (ACER) and the incremental benefits between strategies (ICER), and further provided targeted recommendations for controlling tuberculosis transmission among different groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"11 1","pages":"Pages 121-142"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying mpox transmission and control: A regional analysis of vaccination strategies in East Africa 量化m痘传播和控制：东非疫苗接种战略的区域分析

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.001

Musa Rabiu , Bosede Fagbemigun , Sunday Fadugba , Michael Shatalov , Kekana Malesela , Adejimi Adeniji

Africa is home to the endemic mpox disease, especially in the tropical rain-forest regions of Central and West Africa. Although it is mostly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reports of it have also come from other neighboring African nations. To understand the dynamics of mpox, we studied its spread in Burundi, Uganda, Rwanda, Congo, and Kenya before and after the implementation of interventions. Using a Bayesian framework, a simple mathematical model of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered type was calibrated and fitted to the 2022 mpox data covering the period before the introduction of intervention strategies. The model was then re-stratified to incorporate key epidemiological features, including vaccination with imperfect efficacy, partial immunity, exposure, and demographics. The transmission of mpox varied throughout East Africa, with Uganda exhibiting the highest basic reproduction number

R_{0}

= 2.51, suggesting the possibility of a rapid spread. Despite having the highest initial infection count and the lowest

R_{0}

(1.23), Congo may have had delayed detection. The moderate

R_{0}

values (1.35 and 1.88) in Rwanda and Burundi have implications for prompt intervention to control epidemics. Transmission and vaccination rates have a non-linear relationship with the thresholds required to contain mpox outbreaks. Our model shows that in high-transmission settings, substantially higher vaccination coverage (exceeding 80 % at an effectiveness of 70 %) is required to reduce the control reproduction number below unity, whereas in moderate-transmission contexts, coverage above 40 % may suffice. These quantitative thresholds provide actionable guidance for tailoring vaccination strategies to different epidemiological conditions. In particular, sustained vaccination strategies that achieve coverage above the threshold predicted by our model (approximately 80 %) can guarantee mpox eradication, even in situations with strong transmission rates. While real-world complexities such as heterogeneous risk groups and behavioral factors may affect outcomes, these findings shed light on potential quantitative thresholds and provide a foundation for more detailed, population-specific modeling of mpox interventions.

非洲是流行性痘病的发源地，特别是在中非和西非的热带雨林地区。虽然它主要在刚果民主共和国被发现，但也有来自其他邻近非洲国家的报道。为了了解麻疹的动态，我们研究了实施干预措施前后在布隆迪、乌干达、卢旺达、刚果和肯尼亚的传播情况。使用贝叶斯框架，校准了易感-感染-恢复类型的简单数学模型，并将其拟合到2022年mpox数据中，该数据涵盖了引入干预策略之前的时期。然后对模型进行重新分层，以纳入关键的流行病学特征，包括不完全有效的疫苗接种、部分免疫、暴露和人口统计学特征。麻疹在东非各地的传播情况各不相同，乌干达的基本繁殖数R0 = 2.51最高，表明有可能迅速传播。尽管刚果有最高的初始感染计数和最低的R0(1.23)，但可能延迟了检测。卢旺达和布隆迪的中等R0值（1.35和1.88）对迅速采取干预措施控制流行病具有影响。传播和疫苗接种率与控制痘暴发所需的阈值呈非线性关系。我们的模型表明，在高传播环境中，需要更高的疫苗接种覆盖率（在70%的有效性下超过80%）才能将控制繁殖数减少到1以下，而在中等传播环境中，40%以上的覆盖率可能就足够了。这些定量阈值为根据不同的流行病学情况调整疫苗接种战略提供了可操作的指导。特别是，即使在传播率很高的情况下，实现覆盖率超过我们模型预测的阈值（约80%）的持续疫苗接种战略也可以保证根除痘。虽然现实世界的复杂性，如异质性风险群体和行为因素可能会影响结果，但这些发现揭示了潜在的定量阈值，并为更详细的、针对人群的m痘干预建模提供了基础。

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引用次数: 0

A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases 基于大时间序列模型的传染病预警框架

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.006

Yajie Liu , Xiaoli Wang , Zhidong Cao , Tianyi Luo , Peng Yang , Quanyi Wang

Objective

Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system must incorporate an early warning mechanism designed to detect abnormal rising trends (outbreak) in spatial-temporal series. However, existing anomaly detection methods are often constrained by the quality and quantity of available data in specific application scenarios, particularly in infectious diseases early warning scenarios.

Methods

The emergence of generative pre-trained large time series models—hereafter referred to as large time series models—may provide a solution to this challenge. Based on these models, we propose an effective early warning framework.

Results

We compared the framework with statistic and deep learning methods on real-world infectious diseases datasets and related derived datasets. Our framework has a better performance and requires less data.

Conclusion

We propose a readily deployable early warning framework characterized by strong generalization ability and exceptional performance, which would enlighten the epidemic modeling researchers.

目的建立传染病防治制度，是减轻传染病对人民生命财产安全危害的必要手段。一个有效的传染病控制系统必须包含一个预警机制，旨在发现时空序列的异常上升趋势（爆发）。然而，在特定的应用场景中，特别是在传染病预警场景中，现有的异常检测方法往往受到可用数据的质量和数量的限制。方法生成式预训练大时间序列模型（以下简称大时间序列模型）的出现可能为这一挑战提供解决方案。基于这些模型，我们提出了一个有效的预警框架。结果将该框架与统计和深度学习方法在真实传染病数据集和相关衍生数据集上进行了比较。我们的框架具有更好的性能和更少的数据需求。结论提出了一种易于部署、具有较强泛化能力和优异性能的预警框架，对流行病建模研究人员具有一定的启发意义。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of high-order time-delayed information on epidemic propagation in multiplex networks 多路网络中高阶时延信息对流行病传播的影响

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.007

Zehui Zhang , Fang Wang , Lilin Liu , Lin Wang

Traditional epidemic models often overlook disease incubation periods and high-order social interactions, limiting their ability to capture real-world transmission dynamics. To address these gaps, we develop a stochastic model that integrates both factors, investigating their combined effects on information diffusion and disease spread. Our framework consists of a two-layer network: an awareness layer, where disease-related information propagates through high-order delayed interactions, and an epidemic layer, where disease transmission follows an SIS model with incubation delays. Using a Markov chain approach, we derive outbreak thresholds and perform numerical simulations to assess the impact of delayed awareness adoption on epidemic outcomes. High-order delayed interactions accelerate information spread compared to traditional pairwise models. Interestingly, while incubation periods increase the risk of hidden transmission, they also provide a crucial window for awareness diffusion, potentially mitigating outbreaks. This dual role of incubation prolonging undetected transmission while enabling proactive awareness dissemination underscores the importance of synchronizing public health interventions with disease incubation phases.

传统的流行病模型往往忽略了疾病潜伏期和高阶社会互动，限制了它们捕捉真实世界传播动态的能力。为了解决这些差距，我们开发了一个集成这两个因素的随机模型，研究它们对信息扩散和疾病传播的综合影响。我们的框架由两层网络组成：感知层，其中疾病相关信息通过高阶延迟交互传播；流行病层，其中疾病传播遵循具有孵化延迟的SIS模型。使用马尔可夫链方法，我们得出了爆发阈值，并进行了数值模拟，以评估延迟意识采用对流行病结果的影响。与传统的两两模型相比，高阶延迟交互加速了信息的传播。有趣的是，虽然潜伏期增加了隐性传播的风险，但它们也为传播认识提供了一个关键窗口，有可能减轻疫情。潜伏期延长了未被发现的传播，同时使人们能够主动宣传，这一双重作用强调了将公共卫生干预措施与疾病潜伏期同步的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique 基于昆虫不育技术的寨卡病毒传播动力学建模、分析与优化控制

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.005

Zongmin Yue, Yingpan Zhang, Xiangrui Ji

The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne and environmental aquatic transmission pathways. Unlike eradication-focused approaches, the model targets population suppression through sterile male releases, allowing controlled coexistence of sterile and wild mosquitoes. Dynamical analysis reveals critical thresholds: when the sterile insect release rate b < b_p and Allee effects are weak (r < r_p), the system stabilizes at a coexistence equilibrium; exceeding these thresholds drives population collapse. While low wild mosquito densities may theoretically risk extinction, such levels are epidemiologically insufficient to trigger outbreaks, as viral resurgence requires a critical population density. The basic reproduction number R₀ was derived under coexistence conditions, demonstrating that R₀ > 1 ensures viral persistence. Additionally, a multi-objective optimal control framework prioritizes cost minimization over infection reduction, offering resource-efficient strategies. Environmental transmission, a hallmark of Zika virus, accelerates early infection spread but is effectively mitigated by SIT. These results establish actionable thresholds (b_p, r_p) for balancing mosquito suppression and disease control, while providing theoretical insights applicable to dengue, malaria, and other arboviral diseases.

昆虫不育技术（SIT）已成为抑制蚊媒疾病的一种有前途的工具。本研究建立了一个整合SIT的寨卡病毒传播模型，强调蚊媒传播途径和环境水生传播途径。与以根除为重点的方法不同，该模型通过释放不育雄性蚊子来抑制种群，从而控制不育蚊子和野生蚊子的共存。动力学分析揭示了临界阈值：当不育虫释放率b <； bp和Allee效应较弱（r < rp）时，系统稳定在共存平衡；超过这些阈值将导致人口崩溃。虽然低野生蚊子密度理论上可能有灭绝的危险，但从流行病学角度来看，这样的水平不足以引发疫情，因为病毒再次出现需要达到临界的种群密度。在共存条件下推导出基本繁殖数R0，表明R0 >； 1保证了病毒的持久性。此外，多目标最优控制框架优先考虑成本最小化而不是减少感染，提供资源效率策略。环境传播是寨卡病毒的一个特征，它加速了感染的早期传播，但SIT可以有效地减轻这种传播。这些结果为平衡蚊虫抑制和疾病控制建立了可操作的阈值（bp, rp），同时为登革热、疟疾和其他虫媒病毒疾病提供了理论见解。

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引用次数: 0