Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献_第7页

A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies 一个包含媒体影响、资源限制和阈值转换策略的离散SIR流行病模型

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.006

Wenjie Qin , Shan Zhang , Yi Yang , Jiamin Zhang

The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates a media influence factor, an inoculation function, and a cure function. This model is subsequently discretized and studied via Euler's method. The number of susceptible individuals serves as the switching threshold, determining when media influence and healthcare resources intervene. By conducting an in-depth analysis of the equilibria of two subsystems, we have not only demonstrated the existence and stability conditions of the equilibria but also proposed the flip bifurcation theory for

S_{G_{1}}

. Through single-parameter bifurcation analysis, we identify complex dynamic behaviors such as stability, periodicity, and chaos, and examined the impact of key parameters on these dynamics. We also compared the dynamic behaviors of the discrete and continuous models. Additionally, we delve into the interaction between initial populations of susceptible and infected individuals and its effect on outbreak outcomes, as well as the coexistence of attractors. Our research sheds light on the intricate relationship between media influence, constrained medical resources, and infectious disease propagation, offering recommendations for disease control and intervention approaches.

本文利用数学模型探讨了媒介影响和有限医疗资源对传染病传播的影响。我们构建了一个包含媒介影响因素、接种函数和治愈函数的切换流行病模型。随后对该模型进行离散化，并用欧拉方法进行研究。易感个体的数量作为切换阈值，决定媒体影响和医疗资源何时干预。通过对两个子系统的平衡点的深入分析，我们不仅证明了平衡点的存在性和稳定性条件，而且提出了SG1的翻转分岔理论。通过单参数分岔分析，我们识别了复杂的动力学行为，如稳定性、周期性和混沌性，并研究了关键参数对这些动力学的影响。我们还比较了离散模型和连续模型的动态特性。此外，我们还深入研究了易感个体和受感染个体的初始种群之间的相互作用及其对爆发结果的影响，以及吸引子的共存。我们的研究揭示了媒介影响、有限医疗资源和传染病传播之间的复杂关系，为疾病控制和干预方法提供建议。

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引用次数: 0

Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study 公共卫生政策是否应该在疫情期间免除病毒载量低的病例隔离？一项模型研究

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.003

Jiahao Diao , Rebecca H. Chisholm , Nicholas Geard , James M. McCaw

As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic dynamics depends on a number of factors, including the timing of isolation relative to the onset of contagiousness for each individual instructed to isolate by public health authorities. While there is an extensive literature examining the importance of minimising the delay from exposure to direction to isolate in determining the impact of case isolation policy, less is known about how underlying epidemic dynamics may also contribute to that impact. Empirical observation and modelling studies have shown that, as an epidemic progresses, the distribution of viral loads among cases changes systematically. In principle, this may allow for more targeted and efficient isolation strategies to be implemented. Here, we describe a multi-scale agent-based model developed to investigate how isolation strategies that account for cases viral loads could be incorporated into policy. We compare the impact and efficiency of isolation strategies in which all cases, regardless of their viral load, are required to isolate to strategies in which some cases may be exempt from isolation. Our findings show that, following the epidemic peak, the vast majority of cases identified with a low viral load are in the declining phase of their infection and so contribute less to overall contagiousness. This observation prompts the question about the potential public health value of discontinuing isolation for such individuals. Our numerical investigation of this ‘adaptive’ strategy shows that exempting individuals with low viral loads from isolation following the epidemic peak leads to a modest increase in new infections. Surprisingly, it also leads to a drop in efficiency, as measured by the average number of infections averted per isolated case. Our findings therefore suggest caution in adopting such flexible or adaptive isolation policies. Our multi-scale modelling framework is sufficiently flexible to enable extensive numerical evaluation of more complex isolation strategies that incorporate more disease-specific biological and epidemiological features, supporting the development and evaluation of future public health pandemic response plans.

正如在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间所表明的那样，病例隔离等非药物干预措施是大流行应对的重要组成部分。病例隔离对流行病动态的总体影响取决于许多因素，包括公共卫生当局指示隔离的每个个体相对于传染性发病的隔离时间。虽然有大量文献研究了在确定病例隔离政策的影响时尽量减少从接触到方向隔离的延迟的重要性，但对潜在的流行病动态如何也可能有助于这种影响知之甚少。经验观察和建模研究表明，随着流行病的发展，病例中病毒载量的分布会系统性地发生变化。原则上，这可能允许实现更有针对性和更有效的隔离策略。在这里，我们描述了一个基于多尺度代理的模型，该模型旨在研究如何将考虑病例病毒载量的隔离策略纳入政策。我们比较了隔离策略的影响和效率，在所有情况下，无论其病毒载量如何，都需要隔离的策略，在某些情况下可能免于隔离。我们的研究结果表明，在疫情高峰期之后，绝大多数病毒载量较低的病例处于感染的下降阶段，因此对整体传染性的贡献较小。这一观察结果引发了一个问题，即停止对这些人进行隔离的潜在公共卫生价值。我们对这种“适应性”策略的数值研究表明，在疫情高峰期后免除病毒载量低的个体隔离会导致新感染的适度增加。令人惊讶的是，它还导致效率下降，以每个孤立病例避免感染的平均数量来衡量。因此，我们的研究结果建议在采取这种灵活或适应性隔离政策时要谨慎。我们的多尺度建模框架具有足够的灵活性，能够对包含更多疾病特异性生物学和流行病学特征的更复杂的隔离策略进行广泛的数值评估，支持未来公共卫生大流行应对计划的制定和评估。

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引用次数: 0

A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19 呼吸道传染病时空传播模拟器及其在COVID-19中的应用

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.001

Tao Shi , Jiaxuan Huan , Zuo Zhang , Liqun Fang , Yong Zhang

The present study introduces a transmission dynamic simulator for respiratory infectious diseases by incorporating human movement data into a spatiotemporal transmission model. The model spatially divides areas into multiple patches according to administrative regions. The transmission of respiratory pathogens within each patch is depicted using an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental framework, which incorporates quarantine and isolation measures. The risk of transmission between patches is determined by a gravity-constrained model that considers passenger volume and the spatial distance between patches. We simulate changes in intervention policies and detection methods by adjusting quarantine and detection rates at different stages of the epidemic, thereby capturing spatial variations in pathogen transmission through altering the transmission rate. Ultimately, we apply this simulator to accurately replicate the spatiotemporal dynamics observed during the initial COVID-19 outbreak across all 31 provinces in the mainland of China, successfully capturing the temporal variations in both case numbers and affected provinces. Additionally, it demonstrates a remarkable level of accuracy in predicting the outbreak of epidemic in each province.

本研究通过将人体运动数据纳入时空传播模型，介绍了一种呼吸道传染病传播动态模拟器。该模型根据行政区域在空间上将区域划分为多个斑块。呼吸道病原体在每个贴片内的传播使用改进的易感-暴露-感染-去除（SEIR）分区框架进行描述，其中包括检疫和隔离措施。斑块之间的传播风险由重力约束模型确定，该模型考虑了乘客数量和斑块之间的空间距离。我们通过调整疫情不同阶段的检疫和检出率来模拟干预政策和检测方法的变化，从而通过改变传播率来捕捉病原体传播的空间变化。最终，我们应用该模拟器准确复制了中国大陆所有31个省份COVID-19暴发初期观察到的时空动态，成功捕获了病例数和受影响省份的时间变化。此外，它在预测每个省的流行病爆发方面显示出显着的准确性。

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引用次数: 0

Stochastic modelling of viral infection spread via a Partial Integro-Differential Equation 病毒感染传播的偏积分-微分方程随机模型

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.005

Manuel Pájaro , Irene Otero-Muras , Carlos Vázquez

In the present article we propose a Partial Integro-Differential Equation (PIDE) model to approximate a stochastic SIS compartmental model for viral infection spread. First, an appropriate set of reactions is considered, and the corresponding Chemical Master Equation (CME) that describes the evolution of the reaction network as a stochastic process is posed. In this way, the inherent stochastic behaviour of the infection spread is incorporated in the modelling approach. More precisely, by considering that infection is propagated in bursts we obtain the PIDE model as the continuous counterpart to approximate the CME. In this way, the model takes into account that one infectious individual can be in contact with more than one susceptible person at a given time. Moreover, an appropriate semi-Lagrangian numerical method is proposed to efficiently solve the PIDE model. Numerical results and computational times for CME and PIDE models are compared and discussed. We also include a comparison of the main statistics of the PIDE model with the deterministic ODE model. Moreover, we obtain an analytical expression for the stationary solution of the proposed PIDE model, which also allows us to study the disease persistence. The methodology presented in this work is also applied to a real scenario as the COVID-19 pandemic.

在本文中，我们提出了一个偏积分-微分方程（PIDE）模型来近似病毒感染传播的随机SIS区室模型。首先，考虑一组合适的反应，并建立相应的化学主方程（CME），将反应网络的演化描述为一个随机过程。通过这种方式，感染传播的固有随机行为被纳入建模方法。更准确地说，考虑到感染是在爆发中传播的，我们得到了PIDE模型作为近似CME的连续对应物。这样，该模型考虑到一个有传染性的个体在给定时间内可能与一个以上的易感者接触。此外，提出了一种合适的半拉格朗日数值方法来有效地求解PIDE模型。对CME和PIDE模型的数值结果和计算时间进行了比较和讨论。我们还包括PIDE模型与确定性ODE模型的主要统计量的比较。此外，我们还得到了PIDE模型的平稳解的解析表达式，这也使我们能够研究疾病的持久性。本工作中提出的方法也适用于COVID-19大流行等真实情景。

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引用次数: 0

Global stability for a cumulative release Ebola epidemic model from the corpses and infected individuals 从尸体和受感染个体累积释放的埃博拉疫情模型的全球稳定性

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.002

Ning Wang , Long Zhang , Yantao Luo , Zhidong Teng

In this paper, a SVEIRDP epidemic model is proposed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Ebola by cumulative release from the infected individuals and corpses in the form of infinite integrals. First, the positivity and ultimate boundedness of solutions are proved. Second, the basic reproduction number

R_{0}

is calculated. Furthermore, it is proven that if

R_{0} < 1

, the model has the disease-free equilibrium and is globally asymptotically stable (GAS); If

R_{0} > 1

, the unique endemic equilibrium is GAS. To clearly illustrate the theoretical results, real data are used to conduct numerical simulations. We discover that modeling the cumulative release of Ebola from the infected individuals and corpses using the infinite integral with an appropriate probability density function (PDF) provides a more realistic and accurate representation of the actual disease spread.

本文提出了一个SVEIRDP流行病模型，以无限积分的形式研究埃博拉病毒从感染者和尸体中累积释放的传播动力学。首先，证明了解的正性和最终有界性。其次，计算基本复制数R0。进一步证明了当R0<；1时，模型具有无病平衡点且全局渐近稳定（GAS）；如果R0>；1，唯一的地方性平衡是GAS。为了更清晰地说明理论结果，采用实际数据进行数值模拟。我们发现，利用具有适当概率密度函数（PDF）的无限积分对感染个体和尸体的埃博拉累积释放进行建模，可以更真实、更准确地表示实际的疾病传播。

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引用次数: 0

Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases based on real close contact behavior in an emergency room 基于急诊室真实近距离接触行为的呼吸道传染病传播

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.004

Bing Cao, Haochen Zhang, Nan Zhang

Background

The risk of transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in emergency rooms is high, posing a severe threat to the health of healthcare workers (HCWs).

Methods

The study was conducted in an emergency room of a medical school at a university in Hong Kong during a clinical skills competition. A total of 19,246 s of video surveillance data were collected, recording the treatment of three types of patients (P1: infusion patient, P2: critically ill patient, P3: agitated patient). Taking coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an example, a multi-route transmission model was established to assess the infection risk for HCWs and the effectiveness of various interventions.

Results

The average distances between HCWs and patients during the treatment of P1, P2, and P3 were 0.8 (25–75 percentile: 0.6, 1.1) m, 1.0 (0.8, 1.2) m, and 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) m, respectively. When treating P2, due to intubation procedures, the hourly risk of infection was highest at 43.4 % if no HCWs wore masks, which was 5.1 and 3.1 times higher than it during treatment of P1 (8.5 %) and P3 (13.9 %), respectively. During the treatment, without mask protection, the average hourly infection risk for nurses was 11.0 % (P1), 41.2 % (P2), and 16.8 % (P3), which was 1.8 times (P1), 0.9 times (P2), and 1.5 times (P3) that of doctors. If HCWs wear N95 respirators and surgical masks throughout, the total infection risk can be reduced by 94.7 % and 53.9 %, respectively. Increasing the ventilation rate from 1 ACH to 6 ACH reduced the infection risk through long-range airborne transmission by 43.8 % (P1), 36.1 % (P2), and 31.6 % (P3), with a total infection risk reduction of 2.4 % (P1), 5.6 % (P2), and 1.6 % (P3), respectively.

Conclusions

The findings of the study provide a scientific support for the precise prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases under different treatments in emergency rooms.

背景：呼吸道传染病在急诊室传播的风险很高，对医护人员的健康构成严重威胁。方法在香港某大学医学院的急诊室进行临床技能竞赛。共采集视频监控数据19246 s，记录了3类患者（P1：输液患者、P2：危重患者、P3：躁动患者）的治疗情况。以2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）为例，建立多途径传播模型，评估卫生保健工作者的感染风险和各种干预措施的有效性。结果在P1、P2和P3治疗期间，医护人员与患者的平均距离分别为0.8(25-75个百分点：0.6、1.1)m、1.0(0.8、1.2)m和0.5(0.4、0.7)m。在治疗P2时，由于插管手术，如果医护人员不戴口罩，每小时感染风险最高，为43.4%，分别是治疗P1（8.5%）和P3（13.9%）时的5.1和3.1倍。治疗期间，未戴口罩的护士平均小时感染风险分别为11.0% （P1）、41.2% （P2）和16.8% (P3)，分别是医生的1.8倍（P1）、0.9倍（P2）和1.5倍（P3）。如果医护人员全程佩戴N95口罩和医用口罩，总感染风险分别降低94.7%和53.9%。将通气量从1 ACH增加到6 ACH，通过空气传播的感染风险分别降低43.8% （P1）、36.1% （P2）和31.6% (P3)，总感染风险分别降低2.4% （P1）、5.6% （P2）和1.6% （P3）。结论本研究结果为急诊室不同治疗方式下呼吸道传染病的精准防控提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics and the impact of pentavalent vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X in the African meningitis belt 模拟脑膜炎奈瑟菌在非洲脑膜炎带的传播动态和针对血清群A、C、W-135、Y和X的五价疫苗接种的影响

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.008

Nafiu Hussaini , Abdulrazaq G. Habib , Iliyasu Garba , Isa A. Baba , Andrés Colubri , Ismail Abdulrashid , Salihu S. Musa

The African meningitis belt (AMB) faces recurring epidemics of Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) (a bacterium that causes meningococcal meningitis), posing significant public health challenges. This study develops a Susceptible-Carrier-Infected-Recovered (SCIR)-based dynamic model to investigate Nm transmission dynamics in the AMB region, focussing on the impact of pentavalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X. By incoporating vaccination strategies into the model, we provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating vaccine effectiveness and informing outbreak prevention and control efforts. Our model stratifies the population into high-risk individuals (ages 1–29 years), who are the primary targets of vaccination campaigns, and low-risk individuals (all other age groups), capturing differences in susceptibility and vaccine coverage. Our results reveal that the introduction of pentavalent vaccines significantly reduces the prevalence of carriers, particularly among high-risk groups, thereby curbing transmission and mitigating epidemic risks across the AMB region. Key epidemiological parameters, including reproduction numbers (R₀), are derived to support targeted intervention strategies. Further analysis highlights the role of vaccination in lowering Nm transmissibility, especially in densely populated settings where close contact accelerates spread. Moreover, potential drivers of Nm outbreaks, including climate variability, socioeconomic disparities, and population density, are identified, highlighting the need for integrated public health intervention strategies. Further simulations also reveal the effectiveness of pentavalent vaccination among high-risk populations; however, further research is urgently needed to understand disease heterogeneity and vulnerability, particularly in young children and underserved communities. Thus, this study contribute to advancing our understanding of effective and sustainable vaccination strategies and enhancing epidemic preparedness in meningitis-endemic regions.

非洲脑膜炎带（AMB）面临脑膜炎奈瑟菌（Nm）（一种引起脑膜炎球菌性脑膜炎的细菌）的反复流行，构成重大的公共卫生挑战。本研究建立了一个基于易感-携带者-感染-恢复（SCIR）的动态模型来研究AMB地区的Nm传播动力学，重点关注针对血清群a、C、W-135、Y和x的五价脑膜炎球菌结合疫苗的影响。通过将疫苗接种策略纳入模型，我们为评估疫苗有效性和为疫情防控工作提供了一个全面的框架。我们的模型将人群分为高危人群（1-29岁），他们是疫苗接种运动的主要目标，以及低风险人群（所有其他年龄组），捕捉易感性和疫苗覆盖率的差异。我们的研究结果表明，五价疫苗的引入显著降低了携带者的患病率，特别是在高危人群中，从而抑制了传播并降低了AMB地区的流行病风险。包括繁殖数（R0）在内的关键流行病学参数被导出，以支持有针对性的干预策略。进一步分析强调了疫苗接种在降低新冠病毒传播率方面的作用，特别是在密切接触加速传播的人口稠密环境中。此外，还确定了Nm暴发的潜在驱动因素，包括气候变异、社会经济差异和人口密度，强调了综合公共卫生干预战略的必要性。进一步的模拟还揭示了五价疫苗在高危人群中的有效性；然而，迫切需要进一步的研究来了解疾病的异质性和脆弱性，特别是在幼儿和服务不足的社区。因此，这项研究有助于增进我们对有效和可持续的疫苗接种战略的理解，并加强脑膜炎流行地区的流行病防范。

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引用次数: 0

Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies 用最佳策略控制腮腺炎传播的数学见解

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.007

Stephen Edward, Alberto Kimbuya Mathias

In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols, and a two-dose immunization regimen. We begin by establishing the model's fundamental analytical properties, including the existence and stability of disease equilibria, the positivity and boundedness of solutions, and a threshold condition for disease transmission. Local stability analysis is conducted via the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, ensuring robust insights into the disease dynamics. The optimal control problem is formulated and analyzed using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, which facilitates the derivation of optimal interventions. Numerical simulations are conducted to assess various control strategies and compare the effectiveness of single and combined interventions. Our results indicate that a balanced solution is key to effective disease mitigation. A comprehensive approach employing all four controls: awareness, isolation, primary and booster vaccination, is the most effective strategy. Moreover, strategies that incorporate vaccination consistently outperform those without. Interestingly, a three-control strategy closely approximates the effectiveness of the full four-control intervention, suggesting a cost-effective alternative for practical implementation. While the four-control strategy may incur higher implementation costs, the three-control strategy offers a balanced solution, achieving substantial disease reduction while optimizing resource allocation. Our findings underscore the crucial role of vaccination in mumps control. They offer valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need to balance economic considerations with public health outcomes. Vaccination, as our study demonstrates, is a cornerstone of any effective mumps control strategy.

在这项研究中，我们通过一个动态模型开发了一个管理腮腺炎感染的最佳控制框架，该模型整合了公共卫生干预措施，如意识规划、隔离方案和两剂免疫方案。我们首先建立了模型的基本分析性质，包括疾病平衡点的存在性和稳定性，解的正性和有界性，以及疾病传播的阈值条件。通过劳斯-赫维茨标准进行局部稳定性分析，确保对疾病动态的有力洞察。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理对最优控制问题进行了表述和分析，从而方便了最优干预的推导。进行了数值模拟，以评估各种控制策略，并比较单一和联合干预的有效性。我们的研究结果表明，平衡的解决方案是有效缓解疾病的关键。采用所有四种控制措施：认识、隔离、初次和加强疫苗接种的综合办法是最有效的战略。此外，纳入疫苗接种的战略一贯优于不纳入疫苗接种的战略。有趣的是，三控策略非常接近四控干预的有效性，这为实际实施提供了一种具有成本效益的替代方案。虽然四控战略可能带来更高的实施成本，但三控战略提供了一种平衡的解决方案，在优化资源配置的同时实现了大幅减少疾病。我们的发现强调了疫苗接种在腮腺炎控制中的关键作用。它们为政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解，强调了平衡经济考虑与公共卫生结果的必要性。正如我们的研究所表明的那样，疫苗接种是任何有效的腮腺炎控制战略的基石。

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引用次数: 0

Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model 二维流行病预测模型的建立

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.009

Jianping Huang , Wei Yan , Han Li , Shujuan Hu , Zihan Hao , Licheng Li , Xinbo Lian , Danfeng Wang

Epidemic prediction is a crucial foundation of disease control policy-making. Owing to the high population connectivity of current epidemics, it is essential to capture the spatial transmission of infectious diseases. However, most models currently used in epidemic prediction are single-point models, and they can only capture the time-dynamic increase of cases in limited areas. In this study, we develop a two-dimension epidemic prediction model by introducing diffusion processes, which take spatial transmission epidemics into account. We utilize mathematical theorems to prove a well-posed solution of the model. In addition, we also consider various influencing factors that affect the spread of epidemics, and introduce multiple parameterization schemes. Results suggest that this two-dimension model provides more precise predict the spatial and temporal distribution of confirmed cases. The regional average prediction score of COVID-19 in July 2022 in Lanzhou is 76.5 % and COVID-19 from May 1st to May 31st, 2023 in China is 70.7 %,respectively. Our results offer a scientific foundation for further study on the prediction of spatial epidemics, which contributes to an in-depth understanding of epidemic dynamics and provides valuable reference for the formulation of public health strategies and policies.

疫情预测是疾病控制决策的重要基础。由于当前流行病的人口关联性很强，因此必须掌握传染病的空间传播情况。然而，目前用于流行病预测的大多数模型是单点模型，它们只能捕捉有限区域内病例的时间动态增长。在本研究中，我们通过引入考虑空间传播流行病的扩散过程，建立了一个二维流行病预测模型。我们利用数学定理证明了模型的适定解。此外，我们还考虑了影响流行病传播的各种因素，并引入了多种参数化方案。结果表明，该二维模型能较准确地预测确诊病例的时空分布。兰州2022年7月2019冠状病毒病区域平均预测得分为76.5%，中国2023年5月1日至5月31日2019冠状病毒病区域平均预测得分为70.7%。研究结果为进一步开展空间流行预测研究提供了科学依据，有助于深入了解流行动态，为制定公共卫生战略和政策提供有价值的参考。

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引用次数: 0

Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa 神奇的药物和在哪里使用它们：伊维菌素对非洲疟疾影响的预测

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.003

Scott Greenhalgh , Ahmani Roman , Ashley Provencher

A study in Burkina Faso revealed ivermectin inhibits malaria transmission by killing malaria parasites and mosquitoes. However, it is unknown what effect this drug will have on the malaria transmission intensities of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To address this issue, we created a mathematical model using malaria transmission data from 41 SSA countries to evaluate the antimalarial benefits of a mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To account for ivermectin's effect on malaria, we incorporate estimates of its ability to inhibit malaria transmission and kill mosquitoes. We consider scenarios where 0, 12.5 %, 25.0 %, and 50.0 % of the population receive ivermectin over five years and estimate malaria incidence averted, disability-adjusted life years saved, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Our findings show that an MDA of ivermectin to 12.5 %, 25 %, or 50 % of the population annually averts 248.7, 261.4, and 288.7 incidences per thousand people and saves 5.4, 5.7, and 6.3 disability-adjusted life years, respectively. These values indicate that an MDA of ivermectin would be cost-effective in 41, 18, and 6 countries, and very cost-effective in 22, 6, and 3 countries for the 12.5 %, 25 %, and 50 % scenarios. Altogether, our results indicate that ivermectin would prevent a substantial number of malaria incidences and save disability-adjusted life years in the majority of SSA. Therefore, an MDA of ivermectin would greatly aid in ongoing malaria control efforts and should be considered strongly as a complementary intervention to current malaria protocols.

布基纳法索的一项研究表明，伊维菌素通过杀死疟疾寄生虫和蚊子来抑制疟疾传播。然而，尚不清楚这种药物将对撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）其他地区的疟疾传播强度产生何种影响。为了解决这一问题，我们利用来自41个SSA国家的疟疾传播数据创建了一个数学模型，以评估伊维菌素大规模给药（MDA）的抗疟疾效益。为了解释伊维菌素对疟疾的影响，我们纳入了对其抑制疟疾传播和杀死蚊子能力的估计。我们考虑了0、12.5%、25.0%和50.0%的人口在5年内接受伊维菌素治疗的情况，并估计了避免的疟疾发病率、节省的残疾调整生命年以及增量成本-效果比。我们的研究结果表明，伊维菌素在12.5%、25%或50%的人群中每年可避免每千人248.7、261.4和288.7的发病率，并分别节省5.4、5.7和6.3个残疾调整生命年。这些值表明，在12.5%、25%和50%的情况下，伊维菌素的大规模剂量在41、18和6个国家具有成本效益，在22、6和3个国家具有非常成本效益。总之，我们的结果表明，伊维菌素可以预防大量的疟疾发病率，并节省大多数SSA的残疾调整生命年。因此，伊维菌素的大规模剂量将极大地有助于正在进行的疟疾控制工作，应强烈考虑将其作为当前疟疾方案的补充干预措施。

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