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IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
Hydrograph and recession flows simulations using deep learning: Watershed uniqueness and objective functions 使用深度学习的水文和衰退流模拟:分水岭唯一性和目标函数
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100198
Abhinav Gupta , Sean A. McKenna
This study examines streamflow simulations using deep learning (DL) to understand the information extraction capability of global DL models trained on multiple watersheds. The study separately examined the entire streamflow time series and recession flow predictions. It introduces a global–local (GL) modeling strategy, where the global model outputs are fed as input to a locally trained model, with the hypothesis that the local model can leverage watershed-specific information that the global model may miss. The GL models demonstrate enhanced accuracy in recession flow prediction for 20-30% of the watersheds compared to the global and local models. However, considering the entire hydrograph, the GL models often perform worse than the global model. Further, the DL models were trained on two different objective functions. The performance of the global model in a watershed depended strongly upon the objective function used. These results suggest that the performance of global models is affected by watershed uniqueness, suggesting that even a global DL model should be tailored to individual watersheds for optimal performance.
本研究考察了使用深度学习(DL)的流模拟,以了解在多个流域上训练的全局深度学习模型的信息提取能力。该研究分别检查了整个流量时间序列和衰退流量预测。它引入了一种全局-局部(GL)建模策略,其中将全局模型的输出作为输入输入到局部训练的模型中,并假设局部模型可以利用全局模型可能遗漏的流域特定信息。与全局和局部模型相比,GL模型在预测20-30%流域的衰退流量方面显示出更高的准确性。然而,考虑到整个海线,GL模式往往比全球模式表现得更差。此外,深度学习模型在两个不同的目标函数上进行训练。在流域中,全局模型的性能很大程度上取决于所使用的目标函数。这些结果表明,全局模型的性能受到流域独特性的影响,这表明即使是全局DL模型也应该针对单个流域进行定制以获得最佳性能。
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting model complexity: Space-time correction of high dimensional variable sets in climate model simulations 重新审视模型的复杂性:气候模型模拟中高维变量集的时空修正
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100193
Cilcia Kusumastuti , Rajeshwar Mehrotra , Ashish Sharma
Multivariate bias correction (BC) models are well-known to correct more statistical attributes in climate model simulations. However, their inherent complexity and excessive parameters can introduce higher uncertainty into future climate simulations. In contrast, univariate BC models, with fewer parameters, are limited to correcting certain attributes. An issue that has not been investigated in-depth is the impact of an increased number of variables in the multivariate BC has on the bias-corrected climate models’ stability. This study compares the performance of a multivariate BC approach, Multivariate Recursive Nested Bias Correction (MRNBC), and a univariate BC approach, Continuous Wavelet-based Bias Correction (CWBC), as the number of variables to be corrected increases, known as the “curse of dimensionality” (CoD). The analysis uses high-resolution climate model outputs for both current and future simulations of sea surface temperature and precipitation in the Niño 3.4 region. Results show both BC models effectively correct current climate biases. As the number of variables increases, CWBC remains robust and produces sensible future simulations, while MRNBC’s complexity leads to deterioration in standard deviations and spatial cross-correlation. CWBC, based on univariate correction, is relatively unaffected by the CoD.
众所周知,多变量偏差校正(BC)模型可以校正气候模型模拟中的更多统计属性。然而,其固有的复杂性和过多的参数会给未来气候模拟带来更高的不确定性。相比之下,单变量 BC 模型参数较少,仅限于修正某些属性。一个尚未深入研究的问题是,多元 BC 中变量数量的增加对偏差校正气候模式稳定性的影响。本研究比较了多变量偏差校正方法--多变量递归嵌套偏差校正(MRNBC)和单变量偏差校正方法--基于连续小波的偏差校正(CWBC)在需要校正的变量数量增加(即 "维度诅咒"(CoD))时的性能。分析使用了高分辨率气候模式输出,对 3.4 尼诺地区当前和未来的海面温度和降水量进行了模拟。结果表明,两种 BC 模式都能有效纠正当前的气候偏差。随着变量数量的增加,CWBC 仍然保持稳健,并产生了合理的未来模拟,而 MRNBC 的复杂性导致标准偏差和空间交叉相关性恶化。基于单变量校正的 CWBC 相对不受 CoD 的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of model complexity on karst catchment runoff modeling for flood warning systems 模型复杂性对洪水预警系统岩溶集水区径流建模的影响
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100194
Paul Knöll , Ferry Schiperski , Antonia Roesrath , Traugott Scheytt
Severe flood events are deemed more frequent in the near future with a changing climate. Headwater catchments, especially when karstified, exhibit a pronounced susceptibility to swift and substantial responses to precipitation events, leading to flooding. In this study, a karstified headwater catchment in SW Germany is investigated, focusing on gaining insights into the key processes controlling its discharge behavior. Intensive fieldwork was conducted and a variety of field data were collected and analyzed to determine the general system behavior during low flow and flood events. Field insights reveal a groundwater borne streamflow generation with a subsurface catchment largely differing from the surface catchment. Episodic and sporadic springs were identified as crucial contributors to stream flow generation.
The study was undertaken to evaluate the viability of simulating streamflow for flood warning using a lumped modeling approach at a sub-daily temporal scale, since lumped models are widely used for karst spring discharge modeling. Based on field data observations, a comparative analysis of different model structures was undertaken, aiming at assessing the required degree of model complexity for representing catchment runoff generation as well as the relevant system features and properties. In order to find an adequate model structure, a total of 21 models with varying degree of complexity were set up and run. Both, subsurface and surface catchment limits were considered. Results show that the hydrograph of the whole catchment can be represented by a rather simple lumped model in the present case under two prerequisites: (1) input needs to represent the groundwater catchment emphasizing the groundwater borne nature of flow and (2) the models need to allow for direct runoff, as the sporadic springs observed in the field contribute significant discharge to streamflow during flood events. It is revealed that it seems valid to start modeling with a relatively simple storage model as long as key processes in the catchment are represented. The general feasibility of such a simple modeling approach in this complex catchment encourages its feasibility in other headwater catchments.
随着气候的变化,在不久的将来,严重的洪水事件会更加频繁。溪流集水区,尤其是岩溶化的溪流集水区,很容易对降水事件做出迅速而强烈的反应,从而导致洪水泛滥。本研究调查了德国西南部的一个岩溶化溪流集水区,重点是了解控制其排放行为的关键过程。研究人员进行了深入的实地考察,收集并分析了各种实地数据,以确定低流量和洪水事件期间的总体系统行为。实地考察结果表明,溪流产生于地下水,地下集水区与地表集水区大不相同。由于岩溶泉水排放模型中广泛使用了叠加模型,该研究旨在评估在亚日时间尺度上使用叠加模型模拟用于洪水预警的可行性。在实地数据观测的基础上,对不同的模型结构进行了比较分析,目的是评估模型的复杂程度,以反映集水区径流的产生以及相关的系统特征和特性。为了找到合适的模型结构,共建立并运行了 21 个复杂程度不同的模型。其中既考虑了地下集水区,也考虑了地表集水区。结果表明,在目前的情况下,整个集水区的水文图可以用一个相当简单的集合模型来表示,但有两个前提条件:(1)输入需要代表地下水集水区,强调水流的地下水性质;(2)模型需要允许直接径流,因为在实地观察到的零星泉水在洪水事件期间会对河水造成很大的排放。研究表明,只要能体现集水区的关键过程,从相对简单的蓄水模型开始建模似乎是可行的。这种简单的建模方法在这一复杂集水区的普遍可行性鼓励了其在其他上游集水区的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the economic value of a national hydrometric network for households 量化国家水文网络对家庭的经济价值
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100192
Kush Thakar , Neil Macdonald , Karyn Morrissey
This study reports the results of a Choice Experiment to quantify households’ willingness-to-pay for river gauging programmes in Scotland. The hydrometric network is operated and maintained by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), Scotland’s principal environment regulator, a non-department public body of the Scottish Government. Results from mixed logit and latent class modelling show that most households (‘Hydrometric Maximisers’ − around 70 %) have significant, positive willingness-to-pay values for river gauging programmes, but a minority (‘Hydrometric Satisficers’ − around 30 %) do not view this as a major public policy priority. On average, hydrometric data collection delivers non-market benefits worth £84,625,562 to the Scottish economy, with a minimum economic Benefit-to-Cost ratio of 25:1. This is in addition to the infrastructure value and any private returns made by commercial users of the data. The findings demonstrate that traditional approaches to assessing the benefits of hydrometric networks often underestimate their value. The research also highlights the importance of public information campaigns and household engagement initiatives to increase awareness of hydro-meteorological services, and to develop the business case more fully for public investment in environmental observation networks.
本研究报告了一项选择实验的结果,该实验旨在量化家庭对苏格兰河流测量计划的支付意愿。水文测量网络由苏格兰环境保护局 (SEPA) 负责运营和维护,该局是苏格兰的主要环境监管机构,也是苏格兰政府的一个非部门公共机构。混合对数模型和潜类模型的结果表明,大多数家庭("水文最大化者"--约 70%)对河流测量计划具有显著、积极的支付意愿值,但少数家庭("水文满意者"--约 30%)并不认为这是一项主要的公共政策优先事项。平均而言,水文数据收集可为苏格兰经济带来价值 84,625,562 英镑的非市场效益,最低经济效益成本比为 25:1。这还不包括基础设施价值和数据商业用户的私人收益。研究结果表明,评估水文测量网络效益的传统方法往往低估了其价值。研究还强调了公共宣传活动和家庭参与活动的重要性,以提高人们对水文气象服务的认识,并为环境观测网络的公共投资提供更充分的商业论证。
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引用次数: 0
Private sensors and crowdsourced rainfall data: Accuracy and potential for modelling pluvial flooding in urban areas of Oslo, Norway 私人传感器和众包降雨数据:挪威奥斯陆城市地区冲积洪水建模的准确性和潜力
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100191
Kay Khaing Kyaw , Emma Baietti , Cristian Lussana , Valerio Luzzi , Paolo Mazzoli , Stefano Bagli , Attilio Castellarin
Cloudbursts and extreme rainstorms pose a growing threat to urban areas. Accurate rainfall data is essential for predicting inundations and urban flooding. Private weather stations are becoming increasingly common, and their spatial distribution roughly follows population density. This makes them a valuable source of crowdsourced data for high-resolution rainfall fields in urban areas. We evaluated the performance of private rain gauges in two recent pluvial flood events in Oslo. We also explored the potential use of private rain gauge data in inundation models. Our results indicate that private sensors have excellent rain detection capabilities, but they tend to underestimate the reference value on average by approximately 25%. However, bias-corrected crowdsourced rainfall data can produce significantly more accurate inundation maps than those generated from official rain gauges, if compared with maps resulting from bias-corrected weather radar. Overall, our study highlights the potential of utilizing crowdsourced rainfall data from private sensors for accurately representing pluvial flooding in urban areas. These findings have significant implications for improving flood prediction and mitigation strategies in vulnerable urban settings.
云爆和极端暴雨对城市地区的威胁与日俱增。准确的降雨数据对于预测洪水和城市内涝至关重要。私人气象站越来越普遍,其空间分布与人口密度基本一致。这使它们成为城市地区高分辨率雨量场的宝贵众包数据来源。我们评估了私人雨量计在奥斯陆最近两次冲积洪水事件中的表现。我们还探讨了私人雨量计数据在洪水模型中的潜在用途。我们的结果表明,私人雨量传感器具有出色的雨量检测能力,但它们往往会平均低估参考值约 25%。不过,如果与经过偏差校正的天气雷达生成的地图相比,经过偏差校正的众包雨量数据生成的淹没地图要比官方雨量计生成的地图精确得多。总之,我们的研究强调了利用来自私人传感器的众包降雨量数据准确反映城市地区冲积洪水的潜力。这些发现对改善脆弱城市环境中的洪水预测和减灾策略具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
A combined data assimilation and deep learning approach for continuous spatio-temporal SWE reconstruction from sparse ground tracks 从稀疏地面轨迹重建连续时空 SWE 的数据同化与深度学习相结合方法
IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100190
Matteo Guidicelli , Kristoffer Aalstad , Désirée Treichler , Nadine Salzmann
<div><div>Our understanding of the impact of climate change on water availability and natural hazards in high-mountain regions is limited due to the spatial and temporal scarcity of ground observations of precipitation and snow. Freely available, satellite-based information about the snowpack is currently mainly limited to indirect measurements of snow-covered area or very coarse-scale snow water equivalent (SWE), but only for flat areas in lowlands without vegetation cover. Novel space-based laser altimeters, such as ICESat-2, have the potential to provide high-resolution snow depth data in worldwide mountain regions where no ground observations exist. However, these space-based laser altimeters come with spatial gaps between ground tracks, obtained without repetition at a give location. To overcome these drawbacks, here, we present a combined probabilistic data assimilation and deep learning approach to reconstruct spatio-temporal SWE from observations of snow depth along ground tracks, imitating ICESat-2 tracks in view of a potential future global application.</div><div>Our approach is based on assimilating SWE and snow cover information in a degree-day model with an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) which allows temporally reconstructing SWE along hypothetical ground tracks separated by 3 km. As input, the degree-day model uses daily precipitation and downscaled air temperature from the ERA5 reanalysis. A feedforward neural network (FNN) is then used for spatial propagation of the daily mean and standard deviation of the updated SWE ensemble members obtained from the IES. The combined IES-FNN approach provides uncertainty-aware spatio-temporally continuous estimates of SWE.</div><div>We tested our approach in the alpine Dischma valley (Switzerland) using high-resolution snow depth maps obtained from photogrammetric techniques mounted on airplanes and unmanned aerial system observations. Our results show that the IES-FNN model provides reliable estimates at a resolution of approximately 100 m. Even assimilating only one SWE observation during the year (combined with satellite-based melt-out date estimates) produces satisfying results when evaluating the IES-FNN SWE reconstructions on independent dates and smaller (<span><math><mrow><mo><</mo></mrow></math></span>4 km<sup>2</sup>) areas: mean absolute error of 86 mm (78 mm) at Schürlialp (Latschüelfurgga) for average SWE of 180 mm (254 mm), and average spatial linear correlation with the reference SWE of 0.51 (0.48). However, the assimilated SWE observation must not be too early in the accumulation season or too late in the melt season when the snowpack is starting or ending to accumulate or melt, respectively. Smaller distances between ground tracks (1500 m and 500 m) show improved performance of the IES-FNN approach in space, with no significant improvement in terms of temporal reconstruction.</div><div>Applying the IES-FNN approach to e.g., real ICESat-2 data, remains challenging due to t
由于缺乏对降水和积雪的时空地面观测,我们对气候变化对高山地区水资源供应和自然灾害的影响的了解十分有限。目前,基于卫星的免费积雪信息主要限于间接测量积雪覆盖面积或非常粗略的雪水当量(SWE),但仅限于低地无植被覆盖的平坦区域。新型天基激光测高仪(如 ICESat-2)有可能在没有地面观测数据的全球山区提供高分辨率雪深数据。然而,这些天基激光测高仪的地面轨迹之间存在空间差距,在特定地点获得的数据不重复。为了克服这些缺点,我们在此提出了一种概率数据同化和深度学习相结合的方法,以模仿 ICESat-2 的轨迹,根据沿地面轨迹的雪深观测数据重建时空 SWE,从而在未来实现潜在的全球应用。我们的方法基于将 SWE 和雪盖信息同化到一个度日模型中,并使用迭代集合平滑器(IES),从而可以沿相距 3 公里的假定地面轨迹重建 SWE。度日模型使用ERA5再分析的日降水量和降尺度气温作为输入。然后使用前馈神经网络(FNN)对从 IES 中获得的 SWE 更新集合成员的日平均值和标准偏差进行空间传播。我们使用安装在飞机上的摄影测量技术和无人机系统观测所获得的高分辨率雪深图,在瑞士高山迪施玛山谷测试了我们的方法。结果表明,IES-FNN 模型可在约 100 米的分辨率范围内提供可靠的估计值。在评估独立日期和较小(4 平方公里)区域的 IES-FNN SWE 重建时,即使只同化一年中的一次 SWE 观测(结合基于卫星的融化日期估计),也能得出令人满意的结果:平均 SWE 为 180 毫米(254 毫米)时,Schürlialp(Latschüelfurgga)的平均绝对误差为 86 毫米(78 毫米),与参考 SWE 的平均空间线性相关为 0.51(0.48)。不过,同化的 SWE 观测值不能在积雪开始或结束积雪或融化的季节过早或过晚进行。地面轨迹之间的距离越小(1500 米和 500 米),IES-FNN 方法的空间性能就越好,但在时间重建方面没有明显改善。将 IES-FNN 方法应用于 ICESat-2 等真实数据仍具有挑战性,因为这些数据的不确定性更高。不过,我们提出的方法仍有可能非常有助于解决高山地区降水和降雪地面观测资料匮乏的问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Hydrology X
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