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Hierarchy position & personality predict politicians’ choice of information sources 阶层地位与人格对政治家信息来源选择的预测
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800203
Jeroen K. Joly, J. Hofmans
Political leaders need to stay informed about their constituents’ needs and the pros and cons of any course of action. Reviewing information from a variety of sources would be expected to result in decisions that best serve those constituents. In a study involving 269 Belgian politicians, we examined whether the information sources they used differed according to individuals’ position in the political hierarchy or their personality. We found that both factors could predict a politician's consultation of certain sources over others. Notably, elite political leaders (those with the most power and status) turned significantly more to sources produced by politically neutral groups (such as civil services or scientific institutions) than did politicians known as “backbenchers,” who have less clout. We document several such patterns and argue that these tendencies are problematic. Political parties and government entities interested in good governance should provide training to teach politicians and their staffs to explore varied perspectives.
政治领导人需要随时了解选民的需求以及任何行动方案的利弊。审查来自各种来源的信息将有望做出最有利于这些组成部分的决定。在一项涉及269名比利时政治家的研究中,我们调查了他们使用的信息来源是否因个人在政治等级中的地位或个性而异。我们发现,这两个因素都可以预测政治家对某些来源的咨询比对其他来源的咨询。值得注意的是,精英政治领导人(那些拥有最高权力和地位的人)比那些被称为“后座议员”的政客(他们的影响力较小)更多地求助于政治中立团体(如公务员或科学机构)提供的资源。我们记录了几种这样的模式,并认为这些趋势是有问题的。对善政感兴趣的政党和政府实体应提供培训,教导政治家及其工作人员探索各种观点。
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引用次数: 0
Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate 选举民调有95%的信心,但准确率只有60%
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800202
Aditya Kotak, D. Moore
Election polls in the United States are more confident than accurate-meaning the reported margins of error often do not encompass the actual election outcomes in spite of pollsters claiming a 95% confidence level (that is, a 95% chance that their predictions will fall within the margin of error). In an analysis of polls for more than 6,000 contests, we have found that the actual vote total for a given candidate fell within the 95% confidence interval for just 60% of the polls. This degree of accuracy was reached only when the polls were conducted in the week before an election; accuracy was worse for polls conducted earlier. Polls would, in fact, need margins of error at least twice their current standard reported width to achieve 95% accuracy. We have also found that when laypeople read about poll results, they tend to overestimate the poll's accuracy, even when they have historical data demonstrating that the predictions made by polls are often inaccurate. These results illustrate polls’ vulnerability to overconfidence and the limitations of the lay public's understanding of these shortcomings. We conclude by suggesting ways that pollsters and reporters could enable the public to interpret poll data more realistically.
美国的选举民调更自信,而不是准确——这意味着尽管民调机构声称有95%的置信度(也就是说,他们的预测落在误差范围内的可能性为95%),但报告的误差幅度往往不包括实际的选举结果。在对6000多场竞选的民意调查分析中,我们发现,只有60%的民意调查显示,给定候选人的实际总票数落在95%的置信区间内。只有在选举前一周进行民意调查时,才能达到这种程度的准确性;此前进行的民意调查的准确性更差。事实上,民意测验需要至少两倍于目前标准报告宽度的误差幅度才能达到95%的准确度。我们还发现,当外行人读到民调结果时,他们往往会高估民调的准确性,即使他们有历史数据证明民调的预测往往是不准确的。这些结果说明了民意调查容易受到过度自信的影响,以及外行公众对这些缺陷的理解的局限性。最后,我们建议民意测验专家和记者可以使公众更现实地解释民意调查数据。
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引用次数: 0
Penalties for Going Against Type: How Sexism Shapes Voters’ Perceptions of Candidate Character 反类型的惩罚:性别歧视如何影响选民对候选人性格的看法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800205
J. McDonald, Jaclyn S. Piatak
Although women are increasingly represented in elected office, little is known about how a female candidate's gender influences voter approval when her messaging emphasizes her strong leadership ability—a character trait generally regarded as masculine. Drawing from theories of social cognition and gender stereotypes, we examine in this article how citizens react to male and female politicians who emphasize particular character traits. After synthesizing relevant literature, we report on a study conducted to see whether women lose public support for emphasizing their leadership ability—thus “going against type.” In a survey of more than 800 American adults, we found that respondents penalized a fictional woman running for Congress when her messaging to voters emphasized the core character trait of leadership, as opposed to compassion (a trait traditionally associated with women) or no character trait at all. In contrast, respondents viewed a fictional man more favorably when his messaging to voters went against type by highlighting compassion than when he emphasized leadership. These findings suggest that female candidates have fewer options than men do when selecting which personal characteristics to present in their messaging to gain the approval of the voting public. This result underscores the need for policies and programs that promote female leadership in all walks of life, thereby leading the public to associate leadership skill with both genders equally.
尽管越来越多的女性当选公职,但当女性候选人的信息强调她强大的领导能力——一种通常被认为是男性化的性格特征——时,她的性别如何影响选民的支持率,我们知之甚少。根据社会认知和性别刻板印象的理论,我们在这篇文章中研究了公民对强调特定性格特征的男性和女性政治家的反应。在综合相关文献后,我们报告了一项研究,以了解女性是否会因为强调自己的领导能力而失去公众的支持,从而“与类型背道而驰”。在一项针对800多名美国成年人的调查中,我们发现,当一个虚构的女性竞选国会议员时,如果她向选民传达的信息强调的是领导的核心性格特征,而不是同情心(传统上与女性相关的性格特征),或者根本没有性格特征,受访者就会对她进行惩罚。相比之下,当一个虚构的人物向选民传达的信息与以往不同,强调同情心时,受访者对他的评价要高于强调领导力时。这些发现表明,女性候选人在选择在信息中展示哪些个人特征以获得投票公众的认可时,比男性的选择要少。这一结果强调了在各行各业促进女性领导力的政策和项目的必要性,从而引导公众将领导技能与男女平等地联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
Editor's note 编者按
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800201
Russell S. Hassan
With the rise of identity politics and the election of populist political leaders in the United States and Europe, scholars of leadership, public affairs, and behavioral science have become increasingly interested in learning why voters elect leaders who may not be well suited for political office and how to address the problem. The articles in this issue of Behavioral Science & Policy focus on political leadership and contend with these timely and important questions. The authors are a diverse of group scholars trained in leadership, political science, public administration, and social psychology.
随着身份政治的兴起以及美国和欧洲民粹主义政治领导人的当选,领导力、公共事务和行为科学的学者越来越有兴趣了解选民为什么会选出不太适合担任政治职务的领导人,以及如何解决这个问题。本期《行为科学与政策》的文章聚焦于政治领导力,并与这些及时而重要的问题进行了斗争。作者是一群受过领导力、政治学、公共管理和社会心理学培训的学者。
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引用次数: 0
Leadership & overconfidence 领导力与过度自信
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800206
D. Moore, M. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an incumbent) is competent. However, when politicians are overconfident, the result can be the election of incompetent leaders and the adoption of misguided policies. In this article, we discuss processes that can lead to a confidence “arms race” that encourages politicians to display more confidence than their rivals do. We also illustrate how overconfidence and hyperbole have impaired responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in many nations and offer guidance for distinguishing politicians who display levels of confidence that reflect their true assessment of a situation from those who fake their self-assurance. We then suggest ways that leaders in all spheres can convey uncertainty honestly without losing credibility, and we propose a way to prevent overconfidence from resulting in ineffective or counterproductive legislation.
信心的表达可以给领导人带来可信度。在政治领域,他们可以为在任期间做出的决定赢得选票和公众认可。当表现出的信心确实表明一位领导人(无论是候选人还是现任领导人)有能力时,这种支持是合理的。然而,当政客们过于自信时,结果可能是选举出无能的领导人,并采取错误的政策。在这篇文章中,我们讨论了可能导致信心“军备竞赛”的过程,这种竞赛鼓励政客们表现出比对手更大的信心。我们还说明了过度自信和夸大其词如何削弱了许多国家对新冠肺炎疫情的反应,并为区分表现出反映其对形势真实评估的信心水平的政客和假装自我自信的政客提供了指导。然后,我们提出了各种方法,让所有领域的领导人都能诚实地传达不确定性,而不会失去可信度,我们还提出了一种方法,防止过度自信导致立法无效或适得其反。
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引用次数: 0
Improving election outcomes through a better understanding of heuristic evaluation of candidates 通过更好地理解候选人的启发式评估来改善选举结果
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800204
Meng Li, David R. Glerum
In democracies, the public may assume that people elected to public office are qualified and suited for that office. However, history has demonstrated that this perception can be incorrect. One reason that unqualified individuals win elections is that voters do not always make logical or rational choices. Instead, they often rely on mental shortcuts called heuristics to make snap judgments about which candidate would do the best job. Unfortunately, these snap judgments can be inaccurate. In this article, we summarize heuristics commonly used by voters. These heuristics are often activated by candidate attributes such as appearance, age, ethnicity, and other characteristics that are not related to leadership potential. We also propose policy solutions to reduce the chance of incompetent leaders being elected. These policy solutions address the problem through two main strategies: increasing the number of candidates who have the proper qualifications and encouraging voters to evaluate candidates more deeply and deliberately. We suggest four ways to implement these strategies.
在民主国家,公众可能会认为当选公职的人有资格并适合担任公职。然而,历史已经证明,这种看法可能是不正确的。不合格的个人赢得选举的一个原因是选民并不总是做出合乎逻辑或理性的选择。相反,他们通常依靠被称为启发式的心理捷径来快速判断哪位候选人会做得最好。不幸的是,这些草率的判断可能是不准确的。在这篇文章中,我们总结了选民常用的启发式方法。这些启发法通常由候选人的特征激活,如外表、年龄、种族和其他与领导潜力无关的特征。我们还提出了减少无能领导人当选机会的政策解决方案。这些政策解决方案通过两个主要策略来解决这个问题:增加具有适当资格的候选人的数量,鼓励选民更深入、更深思熟虑地评估候选人。我们提出了四种实施这些战略的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Encouraging employees’ active feedback & participation when rolling out major changes 在推出重大变革时,鼓励员工积极反馈和参与
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800106
Elizabeth Hood, J. Bartunek
When managers and other leaders of organizational change (change agents) introduce and implement major changes, responses from other members of the organization can fall along both passive-active and positive-negative dimensions. Change agents usually treat positive (approving) responses as good and negative (disapproving) responses as bad. They often ignore the passive-active dimension—that is, the degree of energy with which organizational members affected by change (change recipients) respond to the initiative. We suggest that change agents instead focus more on this passive-active dimension and work to elicit active responses to change even when these responses are negative, because active responses can lead to valuable improvements in the initiative. We provide three recommendations for assisting organizational leaders in encouraging and learning from the active feedback of change recipients.
当组织变革的管理者和其他领导者(变革推动者)引入和实施重大变革时,来自组织其他成员的反应可以在被动-主动和积极-消极两个维度上下降。变革推动者通常将积极的(赞成的)反应视为好的,而将消极的(不赞成的)反应视为坏的。他们经常忽略被动-主动的维度,即受变化影响的组织成员(变化接受者)响应主动性的能量程度。我们建议变革推动者更多地关注这个被动-主动维度,并努力引起对变化的积极反应,即使这些反应是消极的,因为积极的反应可以导致主动性的有价值的改进。我们提供了三条建议,以帮助组织领导者鼓励并从变革接受者的积极反馈中学习。
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引用次数: 0
How to choose a default 如何选择默认值
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800102
J. Beshears, Richard T. Mason, S. Benartzi
We have developed a model for setting a default when a population is choosing among ordered choices—that is, ones listed in ascending or descending order. A company, for instance, might want to set a default contribution rate that will increase employees’ average contributions to a retirement savings plan. A key input of the model is the distribution of latent options—the percentages of a population that select each available choice in the absence of a preset default. The model treats the default as an attraction point that causes some people to shift from their latent preference toward the default. It specifies the strength of each possible default's pull on each latent option and thereby points policymakers to the default most likely to achieve a desired aim. We tested our model using data from field experiments relating to retirement savings. In addition to presenting the results, which support the model's validity, we discuss how the model relates to prior empirical evidence on defaults.
我们已经开发了一个模型,用于在种群在有序选项(即按升序或降序列出的选项)中进行选择时设置默认值。例如,一家公司可能希望设置一个默认的缴款率,以增加员工对退休储蓄计划的平均缴款。该模型的一个关键输入是潜在选项的分布——在没有预设默认值的情况下,选择每个可用选项的总体百分比。该模型将默认视为一个吸引点,使一些人从潜在偏好转向默认。它详细说明了每种可能的违约对每种潜在选项的拉动强度,从而为政策制定者指出最有可能实现预期目标的违约。我们使用与退休储蓄相关的实地实验数据来测试我们的模型。除了提出支持模型有效性的结果外,我们还讨论了该模型如何与先前关于违约的经验证据相关联。
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引用次数: 0
Ventilator Allocations: The Effect of Mere Identifiability 通风机配置:单纯可识别性的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800105
I. Ritov, Stephen M. Garcia
The COVID-19 crisis has raised a dire dilemma among medical professionals. Faced with a shortage of critical equipment and supplies, how do hospital administrators and physicians determine whether to divert resources from one patient to another? Most decision-makers will prioritize saving younger patients over older ones, because older patients generally have a much shorter life expectancy. But emotions, such as those elicited when a patient's name is known and the patient is thereby humanized, can interfere with rational decision-making. At the height of the pandemic, we conducted three studies in which participants were asked to imagine being hospital officials tasked with allocating ventilators under two conditions: when the affected patients were and were not identified by name. Participants were less likely to reassign a ventilator from an older patient to a younger one when the patients had been named than when they had not. These results suggest that decisionmakers are more likely to make the efficient choice—the one that should save more years of life—when the individuals affected by the choice remain anonymous. When patients are humanized by being named, less rational and more emotional considerations appear to govern how people choose to distribute lifesaving equipment. Our findings imply that keeping patients anonymous may help facilitate the efficient allocation of scarce medical resources.
COVID-19危机使医疗专业人员陷入了可怕的困境。面对关键设备和物资的短缺,医院管理者和医生如何决定是否将资源从一个病人转移到另一个病人身上?大多数决策者会优先考虑挽救年轻患者而不是老年患者,因为老年患者的预期寿命通常要短得多。但是,情绪,比如当病人的名字被知道,病人因此变得人性化时所引发的情绪,可能会干扰理性的决策。在疫情最严重的时候,我们进行了三项研究,要求参与者想象自己是负责在两种情况下分配呼吸机的医院官员:当受影响的患者被确定或未被确定姓名时。当患者被命名时,参与者不太可能将呼吸机从老年患者重新分配给年轻患者,而不是当他们没有被命名时。这些结果表明,决策者更有可能做出有效的选择——一个应该挽救更多生命的选择——当受选择影响的个人保持匿名时。当病人被赋予人性化的名字时,人们在选择分发救生设备时,似乎会受到更少的理性和更多的情感考虑的支配。我们的研究结果表明,保持患者匿名可能有助于促进稀缺医疗资源的有效分配。
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引用次数: 1
Encouraging COVID-19 vaccination through behaviorally informed reminders: Results from a national randomized field experiment in Israel 通过行为知情提醒鼓励COVID-19疫苗接种:以色列一项全国随机现场试验的结果
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/237946152200800104
Adi Berliner Senderey, R. Ohana, Shay Perchik, Ido Erev, R. Balicer
Inducing people to get vaccinated is critical for controlling the spread of COVID-19. We explored the effectiveness of two text messaging strategies for encouraging unvaccinated individuals to get their COVID-19 vaccination. One message emphasized social norms to harness people's tendency to act in ways that line up with society's expectations. The other message underscored the personal medical benefits of vaccination. Both messages indicated that the vaccine was reserved for the recipient at a nearby location. Over the course of eight days, the percentage of people who got vaccinated after receiving the medical benefit message was 2.1% higher than the percentage of people who got vaccinated after receiving the social norm message (p < .001). Our findings indicate that designing vaccination reminders that highlight the medical benefits of vaccination in addition to the availability of the vaccines can increase vaccination rates.
诱导人们接种疫苗对于控制COVID-19的传播至关重要。我们探索了两种短信策略在鼓励未接种疫苗的个人接种COVID-19疫苗方面的有效性。其中一条信息强调了社会规范,以控制人们按照社会期望行事的倾向。另一条信息强调了接种疫苗的个人医疗益处。这两条信息都表明,疫苗是在附近的一个地方为接受者保留的。在8天的过程中,收到医疗福利信息后接种疫苗的人数比例比收到社会规范信息后接种疫苗的人数比例高2.1% (p < .001)。我们的研究结果表明,设计疫苗接种提醒,突出疫苗接种的医疗效益,以及疫苗的可用性,可以提高疫苗接种率。
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引用次数: 1
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Behavioral Science and Policy
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