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Fraternal Enemies: Israel and the Gulf Monarchies 兄弟的敌人:以色列和海湾君主国
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1861694
G. Bahgat
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引用次数: 0
European Policies Towards the Gulf: Patterns, Dynamics, Evolution, and the case of the Qatar Blockade 欧洲对海湾的政策:模式,动态,演变,以及卡塔尔封锁的案例
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1883575
G. Nonneman
Abstract This paper discusses European policies towards the Qatar crisis in the context of the evolution of broader past and present European policies towards the Gulf. It starts with a summary discussion of historical patterns of relations between Europe and the Gulf, before briefly sketching the major changes in the regional environment after the Second World War, beginning with the US supplanting the UK as the dominant hegemon, through to the changes wrought by Trump’s elevation to the US presidency. It then turns to a discussion of the effects of these changes for the Gulf and other regional states and their policy postures, before going on to examine the ways in which European states and the EU have interpreted and reacted to this changing environment. These reactions are often at one and the same time a reaction to the changes and uncertainties in US policy under Trump, since this changing US role is also a crucial ingredient both in the region and for Europe’s room for manoeuvre. Against this background, the paper will outline European policies towards the Gulf theater in particular, focusing on Iran and the JCPOA nuclear deal, and the GCC (or Qatar) crisis –– while also briefly considering the Yemen crisis and the impact of Gulf competition on and in the Libyan theater. From October 2018, the Khashoggi affair added an additional dimension to the crisis, as did the renewed oil price crash amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic beginning in 2020.
本文讨论了欧洲对卡塔尔危机的政策在更广泛的过去和现在的欧洲对海湾政策的演变的背景下。本文首先概述了欧洲与海湾地区关系的历史模式,然后简要描述了二战后该地区环境的重大变化,从美国取代英国成为占主导地位的霸主开始,一直到特朗普当选美国总统所带来的变化。然后,讨论这些变化对海湾和其他地区国家及其政策姿态的影响,然后再研究欧洲国家和欧盟如何解释和应对这种变化的环境。这些反应往往同时是对特朗普领导下美国政策的变化和不确定性的反应,因为美国角色的变化也是该地区和欧洲回旋余地的关键因素。在此背景下,本文将特别概述欧洲对海湾地区的政策,重点关注伊朗和《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)核协议,以及海湾合作委员会(或卡塔尔)危机,同时也将简要考虑也门危机以及海湾竞争对利比亚地区的影响。从2018年10月开始,卡舒吉事件给这场危机增加了额外的维度,在2020年开始的全球COVID-19大流行期间,油价再次暴跌。
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引用次数: 0
China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies 中国与海湾君主国的关系
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1861692
M. Al-Sudairi
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引用次数: 2
Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States since FDR 国王和总统:自罗斯福以来的沙特阿拉伯和美国
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1861695
F. Lawson
the Arab Peace Initiative is still presented as the correct path to end the conflict, but very little diplomatic efforts have been invested to convince or pressure the Israelis to accept it. Third, Turkey, the other major regional power, has not been able to provide the GCC states with the security assurances they need. Like Iran, Turkey is a non-Arab regional power, but, unlike Tehran, Ankara is a Sunni-majority state. Given the Ottoman legacy and President Erdoğan’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have never trusted Turkey. Furthermore, Ankara’s close ties to Doha has further fueled Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s mistrust. This rift between some GCC states and Turkey has positioned Israel as a regional power that can protect the Gulf Arabs from perceived Iranian threat. Fourth, as Jones and Guzansky rightly point out, not all GCC states perceive Iran as an enemy. Qatar shares the largest natural gas structure in the world –– the South Pars in Iran and North Field in Qatar ––with Iran. Accordingly, Doha has always maintained good neighborly relations with Tehran. Similarly, Muscat shares the Strait of Hormuz with Tehran, and the two nations have always enjoyed good working relations. Meanwhile, Kuwait has always sought to strike a balance between Riyadh, Tehran, and Baghdad. The rift between Qatar, on one side, and Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain (along with Egypt), on the other, means there is no unified Gulf Arab stance on Iran. Fifth, despite the increasingly warming ties between some GCC rulers and Israel, one can argue that more work is needed to get GCC societies to accept Israel. Stated differently, it seems that some Arab regimes are ahead of their people when it comes to normalizing relations with Israel. There are no accurate polls to survey how people in the GCC states feel about normalizing relations with the Jewish state. More efforts are needed to sell normalization to the public. Fraternal Enemies gives the reader a comprehensive background to the history of GCCIsrael ties and explores the main issues between the two sides. Jones and Guzansky make references to the strategic implications of this growing cooperation between the two sides. The last few months of 2020 have witnessed a number of significant developments that are likely to, positively or negatively, impact not only Israel and the GCC states, but the entire Middle East. These developments include establishing full diplomatic and economic ties between the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel; the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States; and the growing animosity between Israel and Iran. How these developments will play out is yet to be seen.
阿拉伯和平倡议仍然被认为是结束冲突的正确途径,但几乎没有投入外交努力来说服或迫使以色列人接受它。第三,另一个主要的地区大国土耳其未能向海湾合作委员会成员国提供它们所需要的安全保证。与伊朗一样,土耳其也是一个非阿拉伯地区大国,但与德黑兰不同的是,安卡拉是一个逊尼派占多数的国家。考虑到奥斯曼帝国的遗产和总统Erdoğan对穆斯林兄弟会的支持,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋从未信任过土耳其。此外,安卡拉与多哈的密切关系进一步加剧了利雅得和阿布扎比的不信任。一些海湾合作委员会国家和土耳其之间的裂痕使以色列成为一个地区大国,可以保护海湾阿拉伯人免受伊朗的威胁。第四,正如琼斯和古赞斯基正确指出的那样,并非所有海湾合作委员会国家都将伊朗视为敌人。卡塔尔与伊朗共享世界上最大的天然气结构——伊朗的South Pars和卡塔尔的North Field。因此,多哈与德黑兰一直保持着良好的睦邻关系。同样,马斯喀特与德黑兰共享霍尔木兹海峡,两国一直享有良好的工作关系。与此同时,科威特一直寻求在利雅得、德黑兰和巴格达之间取得平衡。卡塔尔为一方,沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和巴林(以及埃及)为另一方,这意味着海湾阿拉伯国家在伊朗问题上没有统一立场。第五,尽管一些海湾合作委员会成员国与以色列之间的关系日益升温,但人们可以说,要让海湾合作委员会成员国接受以色列,还需要做更多的工作。换句话说,在与以色列关系正常化问题上,一些阿拉伯政权似乎走在了本国人民的前面。目前还没有准确的民意调查来调查海湾合作委员会成员国人民对与以色列实现关系正常化的看法。需要更多的努力向国民推销正常化。兄弟的敌人给读者一个全面的背景,以以色列关系的历史和探讨双方之间的主要问题。琼斯和古赞斯基提到了双方日益加强合作的战略意义。2020年的最后几个月见证了一些重要的事态发展,这些事态发展不仅可能对以色列和海湾合作委员会国家产生积极或消极的影响,而且可能对整个中东地区产生影响。这些发展包括在阿联酋、巴林和以色列之间建立全面的外交和经济关系;乔·拜登当选美国总统;以及以色列和伊朗之间日益增长的敌意。这些发展将如何发展还有待观察。
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引用次数: 0
Archive Wars: The Politics of History in Saudi Arabia 档案战争:沙特阿拉伯的历史政治
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1896449
Kathryn King
ished his reputation in Riyadh, particularly with Crown Prince Abdallah (p. 142). One of Abdallah’s first actions as ruler was to remove Bandar from his post as Saudi ambassador in Washington (p. 147). US-Saudi relations subsequently went from bad to worse (p. 149), and stayed frosty as Barack Obama undertook a halting rapprochement with the Islamic Republic of Iran and expressed guarded support for the popular uprisings that swept across the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010–11. Nevertheless, the uprisings prompted Abdallah to send Bandar to Pakistan and the PRC to inquire whether these two countries would come to the aid of the Saudi government if its efforts to placate the kingdom’s restive populace through massive state expenditures turned out to be unsuccessful (pp. 160–61). Abdallah rewardedBandar by appointing himhead of external security operations (p. 168).Yet as soon as Salman succeeded Abdallah as ruler, Bandar was unceremoniously cashiered (p. 169). How this affected the kingdom’s dealings with Washington is left largely unaddressed. Instead, the text focuses on Salman’s unprecedented reliance on his own sons, the war in Yemen, Saudi relations with Pakistan, Riyadh’s deepening rivalry with Tehran, and several other topics (pp. 169–79). The book closes with a discussion of the domestic problems that presently confront the kingdom’s leadership (pp. 199–203), which intimates that the energetic new crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, could implement the kind of structural reforms that might ensure the regime’s survival. These remarks coexist uneasily with the “Preface to the Paperback Edition” of 2019, which accuses Crown PrinceMuhammad of ordering themurder of Jamal Khashoggi, supervising “themost repressive purge in the country’s modern history” (p. x), and initiating in Yemen “the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world today” (p. xi). Riedel in the update claims that “beneath the surface, the Kingdom is in turmoil, more unstable today than at any time since [the ouster of King Saud bin Abdul Aziz in] 1958” (p. xii). And Bandar bin Sultan is no longer there to put things right.
他在利雅得,特别是在阿卜杜拉王储面前树立了声誉(第142页)。阿卜杜拉作为统治者的第一个行动是解除班达尔在华盛顿的沙特大使职务(第147页)。随后,美国与沙特的关系每况愈下(第149页),在巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)与伊朗伊斯兰共和国(Islamic Republic of Iran)断断续续地恢复友好关系,并对2010-11年开始席卷中东和北非的民众起义表示谨慎支持之际,美沙关系一直保持冷淡。尽管如此,起义促使阿卜杜拉派班达尔前往巴基斯坦和中国询问,如果沙特政府通过巨额国家支出安抚王国不安的民众的努力失败,这两个国家是否会援助沙特政府(第160-61页)。阿卜杜拉奖励班达尔,任命他为外部安全行动的负责人(第168页)。然而,萨勒曼一接替阿卜杜拉成为统治者,班达尔就被毫不客气地革职了(第169页)。这对沙特与美国的交易有何影响,基本上没有得到解决。相反,这本书聚焦于萨勒曼对自己儿子的空前依赖、也门战争、沙特与巴基斯坦的关系、利雅得与德黑兰日益加深的竞争,以及其他几个话题(第169-79页)。该书最后讨论了沙特领导层目前面临的国内问题(第199-203页),暗示精力充沛的新王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼(Muhammad bin Salman)可能会实施某种结构改革,以确保政权的生存。这些言论与2019年的“平装版序言”共存,后者指责王储穆罕默德下令谋杀贾马尔·卡舒吉,监督“该国现代史上最具镇压性的清洗”(第x页),并在也门引发“当今世界上最严重的人道主义灾难”(第xi页)。里德尔在更新中声称“在表面之下,王国处于动荡之中,自1958年(沙特·本·阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹国王被驱逐)以来,今天比任何时候都更加不稳定”(第十二页)。班达尔·本·苏丹也不再是纠正错误的人了。
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引用次数: 1
Being Young, Male and Saudi: Identity and Politics in a Globalized Kingdom 年轻、男性与沙特:全球化王国的身份与政治
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1861693
Clemens Chay
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引用次数: 1
Nationalism and Identity in Qatar after 2017: The Narrative of the New National Museum 2017年后卡塔尔的民族主义与身份认同:新国家博物馆的叙事
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1854273
Jocelyn Sage Mitchell, M. Al-Hammadi
Abstract How are nationalism and national identity shifting in Qatar as a result of the regional crisis? This study explores whether this moment of geopolitical fluidity allows for changes in sociocultural behavior and norms among Qatari citizens. Specifically, this research uses the case study of the newly opened National Museum of Qatar to examine a state-crafted narrative of national identity and society’s response to this narrative. Our original fieldwork highlights the museum’s combination of desert and sea lifestyles to create a “unity” narrative of Qatari national identity, and explores the mixed reactions of citizens who feel varying levels of representation and inclusion in this narrative. This study concludes with a critical analysis of the malleability of national identity during times of political upheaval.
卡塔尔的民族主义和国家认同是如何因地区危机而转变的?本研究探讨地缘政治流动性的这一时刻是否允许卡塔尔公民的社会文化行为和规范的变化。具体而言,本研究使用新开放的卡塔尔国家博物馆的案例研究来研究国家身份的国家精心制作的叙事和社会对这种叙事的反应。我们最初的田野调查突出了博物馆的沙漠和海洋生活方式的结合,创造了卡塔尔民族身份的“统一”叙事,并探索了在这种叙事中感受到不同程度的代表性和包容性的公民的混合反应。本研究最后对政治动荡时期国家认同的可塑性进行了批判性分析。
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引用次数: 2
Ontological Security and the Gulf Crisis 本体安全与海湾危机
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1833413
David B. Roberts
Abstract Ontological security speaks to a kind of identitarian security and argues that actors need to have a surety and certainty in who and what they are in order to enjoy settled peaceable lives. As a furrow of international relations theory, it argues that states must attend to ontological security needs just as they are concerned about physical security needs. Applied to the Gulf context, analysis of ontological security concerns provides a set of coherent rationales explaining why ontological security pressures play in an exaggerated way on the United Arab Emirates and why, in this context, Qatar is a uniquely problematic Other. As such, uncovering these deeper, abstract security drivers provides a compelling explanation to explain the bitterness and animosity inherent to the UAE’s surprising decision to lead the 2017 blockade against Qatar.
摘要本体论安全论述的是一种同一性安全,认为行为者需要对自己是谁、是什么有一种确信和确定,才能享受安定的和平生活。作为国际关系理论的一个分支,它认为各国必须像关注实体安全需求一样关注本体论安全需求。将本体论安全问题的分析应用于海湾环境,提供了一套连贯的理由,解释了为什么本体论安全压力对阿拉伯联合酋长国的作用过于夸张,以及为什么在这种情况下,卡塔尔是一个独特的有问题的他者。因此,揭示这些更深层次、抽象的安全驱动因素,为解释阿联酋在2017年出人意料地决定领导对卡塔尔的封锁所固有的痛苦和敌意提供了一个令人信服的解释。
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引用次数: 2
The Regional Implications of the Gulf Crisis 海湾危机对地区的影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1848614
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Abstract This article assesses how the decisions taken in and after 2011 in Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh strained and shattered the lingering consensus and common threat perception that had, since 1981, provided a baseline for regional cooperation within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It explores how the rifts after 2011 have hit on weak-points within the GCC in ways that complicate any potential recoherence or “coming-back-together” in anything close to the pre-2017 form. This occurred as the pragmatic flexibility within the GCC was eroded by a “zero-sum” mentality that has split GCC states along multiple lines rather than just a “clean” break over a specific issue. While the relationship between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has become a new and exclusionary center of gravity in Arab Gulf politics, the article ends by examining the prospects for regional order against the backdrop of a fractured GCC and the prospects for greater balance as the disengagement of US interest accelerates the internationalization of the political economy and international relations of Persian Gulf states.
本文评估了2011年及之后在多哈、阿布扎比和利雅得做出的决定是如何使自1981年以来为海湾合作委员会(GCC)内部区域合作提供基线的挥之不去的共识和共同威胁认知变得紧张和破碎的。报告探讨了2011年之后的分歧是如何打击海湾合作委员会内部的弱点的,这种方式使任何可能的重新团结或“重新团结”变得复杂,任何接近2017年之前的形式。这是因为海湾合作委员会内部务实的灵活性被“零和”心态所侵蚀,这种心态使海湾合作委员会国家在多个方面分裂,而不仅仅是在一个具体问题上“彻底”决裂。虽然利雅得和阿布扎比之间的关系已经成为阿拉伯海湾政治中新的排他性的重心,但文章最后考察了在海湾合作委员会分裂的背景下地区秩序的前景,以及随着美国利益的脱离加速了波斯湾国家政治经济和国际关系的国际化,更大平衡的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Society and State in Post-Blockade Qatar: Lessons for the Arab Gulf Region 封锁后卡塔尔的社会与国家:给阿拉伯海湾地区的教训
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/21534764.2020.1828023
Justin J. Gengler
Abstract This article examines key questions of citizen-state, citizen-citizen, and citizen-expatriate relations in the Arab Gulf states through the lens of the 2017 Qatar blockade. It utilizes original public opinion survey data that allow examination of the embargo’s short-term impacts on social and political relations in Qatar as well as broader trends observed over the period from 2010 to 2019. Results lend support to some existing qualitative accounts suggesting changes in important social and political dynamics in Qatar after the blockade. However, survey data also show that such post-blockade differences are mostly reflections of larger attitudinal shifts witnessed over the course of the past decade, rather than isolated effects of the GCC crisis. This suggests the possibility that other Gulf Arab states are experiencing similar transformations in popular sociopolitical orientations and behavior brought on by the same long-term drivers.
本文通过2017年卡塔尔封锁的视角考察了阿拉伯海湾国家公民与国家、公民与公民、公民与外籍人士关系的关键问题。它利用原始的民意调查数据,可以检查禁运对卡塔尔社会和政治关系的短期影响,以及2010年至2019年期间观察到的更广泛趋势。结果支持了一些现有的定性描述,表明封锁后卡塔尔重要的社会和政治动态发生了变化。然而,调查数据还显示,这种封锁后的差异主要反映了过去十年中所见证的更大的态度转变,而不是海湾合作委员会危机的孤立影响。这表明,其他海湾阿拉伯国家也有可能在同样的长期驱动因素下,在大众社会政治取向和行为方面经历类似的转变。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Arabian Studies
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