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PREDICTING CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES IN POLAND AND LITHUANIA – COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 预测波兰和立陶宛的公司破产——比较分析
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.13165/IE-17-11-1-02
B. Prusak
The research on predicting bankruptcies of enterprises constitutes one of the most important areas of financial management. In developed countries, the first publications on the subject appeared in the early 20th century. The situationis different in the countries of Eastern Europe, which introduced the market system already at the beginning of the 1990s, which resulted in first corporate bankruptcies. The article compares experiences in the field of forecasting corporate bankruptcies in two countries of Eastern Europe, i.e. Poland and Lithuania, comparing them with the results of research conducted in developed countries. In conclusion, the similarities and differences between the two countries are identified and the future directions of research on this issue are proposed.
企业破产预测研究是财务管理的重要领域之一。在发达国家,关于这一主题的第一批出版物出现在20世纪初。东欧国家的情况则有所不同,这些国家在90年代初就引入了市场体系,导致了第一批企业破产。本文比较了东欧两个国家波兰和立陶宛在企业破产预测方面的经验,并将其与发达国家的研究结果进行了比较。最后,分析了两国的异同,并提出了未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 2
EVALUATION OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STANDARD & POOR’S 500 SECTORAL INDEX PRICES 对标准普尔500指数行业价格波动的评估
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.13165/IE-17-11-1-01
Aleksejus Sosidko, Ligita Gasparėnienė
This article evaluates fluctuations in the Standard & Poor’s 500 sectoral index prices, taking into account the impact of fundamental macroeconomic stock price determinants assessed by individual expectation categories. Models for stock price prognostication have also been developed and verified. In this research, fluctuations in the Standard & Poor’s 500 sectoral index prices are evaluated, taking into account each fundamental macroeconomic determinant and a separate expectation category. This research has enabled the identification of indices with high price fluctuations. Statistically reliable prognostication models have been empirically verified, and the most reliable prognostication models for indicating rise or declines in index prices have been identified.
本文评估了标准普尔500指数行业价格的波动,考虑到按个人预期类别评估的基本宏观经济股票价格决定因素的影响。股票价格预测模型也已开发和验证。在这项研究中,考虑到每个基本的宏观经济决定因素和一个单独的预期类别,对标准普尔500指数行业价格的波动进行了评估。这一研究使价格波动较大的指数的识别成为可能。统计上可靠的预测模型已经过实证验证,并确定了指示指数价格上涨或下跌的最可靠的预测模型。
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引用次数: 0
External costs of traffic accidents on Slovenian roads 斯洛文尼亚道路交通事故的外部成本
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.13165/IE-17-11-1-03
Marina Zanne, P. Bajec
Traffic safety can be viewed from different perspectives. In this study, we assess traffic safety in Slovenia from the point of view of costs. Slovenia is a small country at a crossroads of important European routes that provides good developmental possibilities, but at the same time faces potential threats to traffic safety because the inland infrastructure does not seem ready to accommodate the increasingly high traffic flows. We have created a time series for several traffic safety and workload indicators, and have analysed them using simple descriptive statistics. We have then provided an assessment of the costs arising from road accidents. We discovered that despite a large improvement in traffic safety records, it seems that such trends could soon come to an end because of the heterogenisation and growth of traffic flows, as well as the deterioration of national and municipal roads.
交通安全可以从不同的角度来看待。在这项研究中,我们从成本的角度评估斯洛文尼亚的交通安全。斯洛文尼亚是一个小国,位于重要的欧洲航线的十字路口,提供了良好的发展可能性,但同时也面临着交通安全的潜在威胁,因为内陆基础设施似乎还没有准备好适应日益高的交通流量。我们为几个交通安全和工作量指标建立了一个时间序列,并使用简单的描述性统计数据对它们进行了分析。然后,我们提供了一份道路事故费用的评估报告。我们发现,尽管交通安全记录有了很大的改善,但由于交通流量的异质性和增长,以及国家和市政道路的恶化,这种趋势似乎很快就会结束。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of electronic customs administration on facilitating the export activities of export companies based in Gilan, Iran 电子海关管理对促进伊朗吉兰出口公司出口活动的影响
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.03.004
Hamidreza Alipour Shirsavar , Masumeh Shirinpour

Sensitivity and importance of exports of goods and services to countries caused to identify the tool and its associated effective factors and strive to development of export. Customs services are important effective factors for the development of exports of goods and services. The current study examines the impact of electronic customs on export of goods and services. The results indicate that identifying new opportunities is effective to reduce transaction costs on export so that the reducing of transaction costs will be caused to creating a competitive advantage and will be developed with increasing in exports competitive advantage of goods and services. Also, the results showed that the reduction of transaction costs impacts on the export development.

对出口商品和服务的敏感性和重要性引起了各国的工具识别及其相关的有效因素,努力发展出口。海关服务是发展货物和服务出口的重要有效因素。本研究探讨电子海关对货物及服务出口的影响。结果表明,发现新的机会可以有效地降低出口交易成本,从而使交易成本的降低产生竞争优势,并随着出口商品和服务的竞争优势的增加而发展。同时,交易成本的降低对出口的发展也有影响。
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引用次数: 6
A modified neural network model for predicting the crude oil price 原油价格预测的改进神经网络模型
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.02.001
Mohammad Reza Mahdiani, Ehsan Khamehchi

Predicting the crude oil price is very interesting and prominent for all governments and different companies. Here a neutral network model has been modified, in a way that a genetic algorithm optimizes its parameters during its run. This model is able to predict the future price of crude oil very accurately. Comparing the model of this study with the pure neural network in predicting both daily and monthly crude oil prices confirmed its greater performance, especially in situation of small number of input data for training or the great changes of variables.

预测原油价格对所有政府和不同的公司来说都是非常有趣和重要的。在这里,一个中立的网络模型被修改,以一种遗传算法在运行过程中优化其参数的方式。这个模型能够非常准确地预测未来的原油价格。将本研究模型与纯神经网络模型在预测原油日、月价格方面进行了比较,证实了其在训练输入数据较少或变量变化较大的情况下具有更好的性能。
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引用次数: 30
Long run sustainability of current account balance of China and India: New evidence from combined cointegration test 中国和印度经常账户平衡的长期可持续性:来自联合协整检验的新证据
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.02.002
Manoranjan Sahoo, M. Suresh Babu, Umakant Dash

This paper investigates the long run sustainability of current account balance (CAB) in two fast growing emerging economies of Asia, China and India, using annual data from 1980 to 2014. Sustainability of current account balance is analyzed by examining the long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports of goods and services. We use the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test to examine the long run relationship between exports and imports. The results indicate that while China has a sustainable current account balance, India's current account balance is not sustainable in the long run. Therefore, in terms of maintaining the growth momentum, India has to enhance the rate of growth of its exports while China has to maintain high levels of export growth, even in an era of sluggish global demand.

本文利用1980年至2014年的年度数据,研究了亚洲两个快速增长的新兴经济体中国和印度的经常账户余额(CAB)的长期可持续性。通过检验商品和服务进出口之间的长期均衡关系,分析了经常账户平衡的可持续性。我们使用bayer - hank(2013)组合协整检验来检验出口和进口之间的长期关系。结果表明,虽然中国拥有可持续的经常账户平衡,但从长远来看,印度的经常账户平衡是不可持续的。因此,在保持增长势头方面,印度必须提高其出口增长率,而中国必须保持高水平的出口增长,即使在全球需求低迷的时代。
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引用次数: 22
Historical context of behavioral economics 行为经济学的历史背景
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.03.006
Tansif ur Rehman

Behavioral economics, at broad level, superimpose many areas including Psychology and Economics. Behavioral economics by all means enhances the explanatory power of Economics as it provides it with a firm and more rational psychological basis. During the previous 20 years, many studies have explored different aspects of behavioral economics leading to introduction of the respective principles that pertain to human behavior. This article intends to provide an introduction to behavioral economics in its historical context. It also investigates the gaps that lie in the broad spectrum of behavioral economics.

行为经济学,在广泛的层面上,重叠了许多领域,包括心理学和经济学。行为经济学为经济学提供了更坚实、更理性的心理基础,从而增强了经济学的解释力。在过去的20年里,许多研究探索了行为经济学的不同方面,从而引入了与人类行为有关的各自原则。本文旨在介绍在其历史背景下的行为经济学。它还调查了存在于广泛的行为经济学中的差距。
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引用次数: 12
How does monetary policy and private sector credit interact in a developing economy? 在发展中经济体中,货币政策和私人部门信贷是如何相互作用的?
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.03.001
Kalu O. Emenike

This paper evaluates the nature of relationship between monetary policy and private sector credit as well as the impact of structural break on the relationship by applying a battery of econometric tests on Nigeria data. The cointegrating regression results reveal evidence of long-run relationship between monetary policy and credit to private sector. Estimates from the long-run parameter stability tests support cointegration in the presence of structural breaks. Similarly, error correction model results show that changes in credit have positive and significant short-term effects on changes in monetary policy. The results of innovation accounting also provide support to show that innovations in credit have impact on monetary policy. Granger causality analysis exhibits unidirectional causality from credit to monetary policy. The key implication of the findings is that credit to the private sector is an effective channel for monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. It is recommended therefore that monetary authorities in developing countries should consider credit as a major channel for implementing monetary policies.

本文通过对尼日利亚数据进行一系列计量经济学测试,评估了货币政策与私营部门信贷之间关系的性质,以及结构性断裂对这种关系的影响。协整回归结果揭示了货币政策与私营部门信贷之间存在长期关系的证据。长期参数稳定性测试的估计支持存在结构断裂时的协整。同样,误差修正模型的结果表明,信贷的变化对货币政策的变化具有积极而显著的短期影响。创新核算的结果也支持了信贷创新对货币政策的影响。格兰杰因果分析显示信贷与货币政策之间存在单向因果关系。研究结果的关键含义是,对私营部门的信贷是尼日利亚货币政策传导的有效渠道。因此,建议发展中国家的货币当局将信贷视为执行货币政策的主要渠道。
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引用次数: 14
Practical application of CSR complex evaluation system 企业社会责任复杂评价体系的实际应用
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.03.002
Indrė Slapikaitė

When the things go towards CSR, measuring and evaluating have became one of the key goals for researchers and practitioners. Especially when it is linked to the funders point of view – while funding the companies it became certainly important to practically assess the level of the company's CSR. Therefore, in this paper the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are suggested and used as the most appropriate tool for solving different kinds of economics and social problems. While using AHP method, a CSR complex evaluation system is formed practically with prioritizing the most important CSR criteria from the funders point of view. Then the rest of the MCDM methods (SAW, TOPSIS, VIKOR and SoR) are used for the comparison of some real companies' CSR level. Finally the compatibility level of the methods is checked, in order to minimize the influence of each MCDM method to the final results.

当企业走向企业社会责任的时候,衡量和评估已经成为研究者和实践者的主要目标之一。特别是当它与出资人的观点联系在一起时——在资助公司的同时,实际评估公司的企业社会责任水平当然变得很重要。因此,本文提出了多准则决策(MCDM)方法,并将其作为解决各种经济和社会问题的最合适工具。运用层次分析法,从出资人的角度出发,对最重要的企业社会责任标准进行优先排序,实际形成了企业社会责任复杂评价体系。然后使用MCDM的其余方法(SAW、TOPSIS、VIKOR和SoR)对一些真实公司的企业社会责任水平进行比较。最后对各方法的兼容性水平进行检查,以尽量减少各MCDM方法对最终结果的影响。
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引用次数: 10
Evaluation of the impact of shadow economy determinants: Ukrainian case 影子经济决定因素影响的评估:乌克兰案例
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.intele.2017.03.003
Ligita Gasparėnienė , Rita Remeikienė , Markku Heikkila

This article is aimed at evaluation of the impact of shadow economy determinants on the scope of shadow economy in Ukraine over 2005 – 2012. The empirical research has revealed that 99 percent of shadow economy in Ukraine is explained by such determinants as tax rate, overall employment rate, import of goods and services, GDP and participation of working-age people in the labour market. The growth of the overall employment rate has a bidirectional impact on the scope of shadow economy in Ukraine: hired work increases the opportunities to earn legal wages, but probability of paying illegal wages is still high.

本文旨在评估影子经济决定因素对乌克兰2005 - 2012年影子经济范围的影响。实证研究表明,乌克兰99%的影子经济可以用税率、总体就业率、商品和服务进口、GDP和劳动年龄人口在劳动力市场的参与度等决定因素来解释。整体就业率的增长对乌克兰影子经济的范围产生了双向影响:雇佣工作增加了获得合法工资的机会,但支付非法工资的概率仍然很高。
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引用次数: 20
期刊
Intellectual Economics
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