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Effects of Unemployment on Economic Sectors: A Proposal for Behavior Analysis with Brazilian Municipalities 失业对经济部门的影响:对巴西市政当局行为分析的建议
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p107
Leandro Souza da Silva, A. Araújo
Although determined municipal public policies focus on the unemployment rate, to understand its determinants, one must assess how the main employment sectors in the country work, and how they affected by unemployment. In view of these facts, it is possible to raise the following research question: what is the influence of the main employment sectors on the unemployment present in Brazilian municipalities? Thus, this research will aim to analyze the effects of unemployment in the main employment sectors in Brazil. The study used data from 5.631 Brazilian municipalities, performing quantitative descriptive analysis procedures, in addition to the development of a linear regression model and a Tobit regression model. The Services sector appears with a positive highlight in relation to the others. Mineral Extractivism, on the other hand, presented a worrying unemployment estimate, being the sector that suffers the greatest impact in relation to unemployment. Among the economic sectors that also presented worrying coefficients are the Transformation industry (0.80) and Business (0.77). The results presented in the research can serve as a basis for decision-making, not only for public sector managers, but also for managers in the private sector.
虽然确定的市政公共政策侧重于失业率,但要了解其决定因素,必须评估该国主要就业部门的工作方式,以及它们如何受到失业的影响。鉴于这些事实,有可能提出以下研究问题:巴西各城市的主要就业部门对目前的失业率有什么影响?因此,本研究旨在分析失业对巴西主要就业部门的影响。该研究使用了巴西5.631个城市的数据,进行了定量描述性分析程序,并建立了线性回归模型和Tobit回归模型。与其他行业相比,服务业表现出积极的亮点。另一方面,矿物采掘业的失业估计数令人担忧,因为它是受失业影响最大的部门。同样表现出令人担忧系数的经济部门包括转型行业(0.80)和商业(0.77)。研究中提出的结果不仅可以作为公共部门管理人员的决策基础,也可以作为私营部门管理人员的决策基础。
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引用次数: 1
Public Investment and Economic Growth in Morocco: An Econometric Analysis Using the ARDL Model 摩洛哥的公共投资与经济增长:使用ARDL模型的计量经济学分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p126
Hamid Nounou, Mohamed Karim, Mohamed Moul Dar, Fatima Zahra Zerrab
The following research aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the efficiency of public investment in Morocco. We use the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to jointly capture the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics between public investment and economic growth. Other variables such as the capital stock and the size of the employed labor force are also included in the model. The results indicate the absence of any correlation between public investment and economic growth in the short term. However, the impact of public investment on economic growth becomes negative in the long term.
以下研究旨在为摩洛哥公共投资效率的实证文献做出贡献。我们使用自动回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来共同捕捉公共投资与经济增长之间的长期关系和短期动态。其他变量,如资本存量和就业劳动力的规模也包括在模型中。结果表明,短期内公共投资与经济增长之间不存在任何相关性。然而,从长期来看,公共投资对经济增长的影响是消极的。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Development and Its Impact on Tax Revenue in Côte d’Ivoire Côte科特迪瓦金融发展及其对税收的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p118
Oyibo Paul Vivien, Djeban Koffi Mouroufie Emmanuel, Anzian Kouamé Marcel, Fossou Ebi Georges
Increasing domestic revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many governments, generally in low-income countries and in Côte d'Ivoire in particular. This work aims to assess the effects of financial development on the mobilization of tax revenues in Côte d'Ivoire during the period 1985-2020. The Granger Causality techniques were applied to data, revealing that there is a one-way relationship between financial development and tax revenue and between export and tax revenue. The results of the estimation of the two-step cointegration model of Engle-Granger (1987) show a cointegration relationship between taxes and their variables in the long term as in the short term. The improvement of financial development and the good quality of national institutions lead to better mobilization of tax revenues. However, the contributory capacity of exports to national wealth positively and significantly influences the mobilization of income in the short term, in the long term, exports become harmful but not significant. The results reflect the non-negligible role of the quality of national institutions in the relationship between the financial sphere and the real sphere.
增加国内收入仍然是许多政府面临的一项挑战,特别是在低收入国家,特别是在Côte科特迪瓦。这项工作旨在评估1985-2020年期间金融发展对Côte科特迪瓦税收调动的影响。运用Granger因果关系技术对数据进行分析,发现金融发展与税收、出口与税收之间存在单向关系。恩格尔-格兰杰(1987)的两步协整模型的估计结果表明,税收与其变量之间在长期和短期内都存在协整关系。财政发展的改善和国家机构的良好质量导致更好地调动税收收入。然而,出口对国家财富的贡献能力在短期内对收入的调动产生积极和重大的影响,从长期来看,出口是有害的,但并不重要。结果反映了国家机构的质量在金融领域和现实领域之间的关系中不可忽视的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Influence of Institutional Quality on Chinese OFDI Location Selection: An Analysis of African and Asian Countries 制度质量对中国对外直接投资区位选择的影响评估——基于亚非国家的分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-20 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p93
Zakariae Elattar, Ming-que Ye
This study explores the role of institutional quality as an important factor in facilitating Chinese foreign direct investment (OFDI) into African and Asian countries. We analyze the different market- and resource-seeking incentives of Chinese firms and measure the impact of institutions on their investment decisions. Our data set covers 72 countries over eight years, which we analyze using the Generalized Method of Moments. Our results show that institutional quality, particularly in terms of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the rule of law, plays a significant role in both attracting and deterring market-seeking investments while having a less pronounced effect on resource-seeking investments. Our findings are important for understanding the dynamics of Chinese OFDI in Africa and Asia and its implications for long-term economic growth.
本研究探讨了制度质量在促进中国对非洲和亚洲国家的对外直接投资(OFDI)中的重要作用。我们分析了中国企业不同的市场和资源寻求激励,并衡量了制度对其投资决策的影响。我们的数据集覆盖了72个国家超过8年的时间,我们使用广义矩量法进行分析。我们的研究结果表明,制度质量,特别是在政府效率、监管质量和法治方面,在吸引和阻止市场寻求投资方面发挥着重要作用,而对资源寻求投资的影响不太明显。我们的研究结果对于理解中国在非洲和亚洲的对外直接投资动态及其对长期经济增长的影响具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidation Risk: Evidence on Non-Linearities in Uncovered Interest Parity 平仓风险:未覆盖利率平价的非线性证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p77
Vikramendra Kumar
Prospective shocks that force the immediate liquidation of securities to raise liquidity determine the ex-ante excess returns on currencies – a liquidation premium to compensate the investor for their liquidation risk even if they have forward cover. This liquidation premium behaves non-linearly, as postulated by the liquidity-risk augmented uncovered interest rate parity theory. The success of uncovered interest parity is, thus, conditional on the severity of the shock and the levels of interest rates. We examine the empirical validity of these non-linearity propositions using data on five major currencies, and document that the failure of uncovered interest parity is more pronounced when liquidity shocks are more severe and interest rate levels are higher.
迫使证券立即平仓以提高流动性的预期冲击,决定了货币的事前超额回报——一种补偿投资者平仓风险的平仓溢价,即使投资者有远期保险。这种清算溢价表现为非线性,正如流动性风险增强未覆盖利率平价理论所假设的那样。因此,未覆盖的利率平价能否成功,取决于冲击的严重程度和利率水平。我们使用五种主要货币的数据来检验这些非线性命题的实证有效性,并证明当流动性冲击更严重和利率水平更高时,未发现的利率平价的失败更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
The Exchange Rate Volatility During Political Protests: Event Study and the Case of Belarus 政治抗议期间的汇率波动:事件研究与白俄罗斯案例
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p37
K. Rudy
The exchange rate reacts on political protests. Market agents affected by unrest increase exchange rate volatility. This may be converted into currency devaluation if monetary authorities decide to join protesters rather than supporting the exchange rate. Based on the event study methodology, three hypotheses were tested on 1,220 event windows of 77 political protests, in 54 economies, in 2017-2022, on three points: (1) the types of political protests with the highest abnormal exchange rate volatility and currency returns; (2) the influence of protests on daily currency devaluation; (3) the effects of unrest on intraday exchange rate volatility. The findings show that the highest exchange rate volatility was in the groups of events with short duration, with a small number of participants, which were non-violent, motivated by electoral fraud, without outcomes, and in partly free countries. The highest currency devaluation was in the groups of unrest with the greatest number of protesters, lasting more than a month, and in free countries. Only rare cases prove a high statistically significant influence of protests on exchange rate volatility and currency devaluation. As the case-by-case approach is preferable, the case of Belarus, and the country’s 14 largest political protests in 2020, was studied. This showed that four-month street unrests affected the abnormal intraday volatility of USD/BYN. After two weeks of protests, market volatility would have led to devaluation, if the National Bank hadn’t intervened, and in two months of unrest, exchange rate volatility started falling.
汇率会对政治抗议做出反应。受动荡影响的市场主体增加了汇率波动。如果货币当局决定加入抗议者的行列,而不是支持汇率,这可能会转化为货币贬值。基于事件研究方法,我们在2017-2022年54个经济体的77次政治抗议活动的1220个事件窗口中对三个假设进行了检验,主要涉及以下三点:(1)具有最高异常汇率波动和货币回报的政治抗议类型;(2)抗议活动对日常货币贬值的影响;(3)动荡对日内汇率波动的影响。调查结果显示,汇率波动最大的是持续时间短、参与人数少、非暴力、受选举欺诈驱动、没有结果的事件组,以及在部分自由的国家。货币贬值幅度最大的是抗议者人数最多的骚乱群体,持续时间超过一个月,以及在自由国家。只有极少数情况证明,抗议活动对汇率波动和货币贬值的影响在统计上具有高度显著性。鉴于具体情况具体分析更为可取,我们对白俄罗斯的情况以及该国2020年发生的14起规模最大的政治抗议活动进行了研究。这表明四个月的街头骚乱影响了美元/BYN盘中的异常波动。在两周的抗议活动之后,如果没有国家银行的干预,市场波动可能会导致货币贬值,而在两个月的骚乱中,汇率波动开始下降。
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引用次数: 1
Real Options in the Brazilian Power Generation Sector: Are Domestic Equity Research Analysts Blind-Sighted or Is It Just a Temporary Glitch? 巴西发电行业的实物期权:国内股票研究分析师是盲目的还是只是暂时的故障?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p53
Marcio Santiago Gonçalves, Jéfferson A. Colombo
The Real Options theory (“ROT”) states firms should be approached as a combination of real assets and real options. Domestic equity research analysts do not seem to evaluate companies applying ROT. After reviewing 344 (from a total estimated 368) equity research reports or analyses on Brazilian listed power generation companies produced between December 31, 2020, and April 30, 2021, we find only discounted cash flow (“DCF”) techniques are applied. No single mention to ROT is made. To estimate the magnitude of potential misvaluations, we use the Black-Scholes method to price the growth plans made publicly available by each of those 15 companies in that period and compare the outcome with the analysts’ forecasted equity value upside per company. Our results suggest local analysts have ignored a sizeable intrinsic value to those companies by failing to apply ROT. Potential explanations range from behavioral biases to low power sector representativeness at IBOVESPA.
实物期权理论(“ROT”)认为企业应该是实物资产和实物期权的结合。国内股票研究分析师似乎没有评估应用ROT的公司。在审查了2020年12月31日至2021年4月30日期间对巴西上市发电公司的344份(估计总数为368份)股票研究报告或分析后,我们发现只应用了贴现现金流(“DCF”)技术。对ROT只字未提。为了估计潜在估值错误的程度,我们使用Black-Scholes方法对这15家公司在这一时期公开发布的增长计划进行定价,并将结果与分析师预测的每家公司的股票价值上涨幅度进行比较。我们的研究结果表明,由于未能应用ROT,当地分析师忽略了这些公司的相当大的内在价值。潜在的解释范围从行为偏见到IBOVESPA的低权力部门代表性。
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引用次数: 0
Payroll Loans and Debt Among Public Servants in Brazil 巴西公务员的工资贷款和债务
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-30 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p30
Guilherme Campos Gonçalves, Celso Vila Nova de Souza Júnior, A. Cabello
This paper analyzed the effect of sociodemographic variables on the probability of indebtedness of public servants, focusing on the contracting of payroll loans by NEDF servants in the period from 2013 to 2019. Our main contributions to the literature were the use of hard-to-access database, consisting of information obtained from official systems of the Brazilian federal government and the addition of a new variable, alimony deduction, not previously considered by the literature. Our main conclusions are that older individuals, with a greater number of dependents, with higher real income and who pay alimony are more likely to have taken out a loan. Females, on the other hand, are less likely to have taken out a loan. Marital status can also affect this probability, with committed individuals with a higher chance of contracting a loan compared to single individuals.
本文以2013 - 2019年NEDF公务员工资贷款签约为研究对象,分析了社会人口统计变量对公务员负债概率的影响。我们对文献的主要贡献是使用了难以访问的数据库,该数据库由从巴西联邦政府官方系统获得的信息组成,并增加了一个新的变量,赡养费扣除,这是文献以前没有考虑过的。我们的主要结论是,年龄较大的人,有更多的家属,有更高的实际收入和支付赡养费的人更有可能获得贷款。另一方面,女性则不太可能申请贷款。婚姻状况也会影响这种可能性,与单身人士相比,已婚人士获得贷款的几率更高。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Affecting Return on Assets (ROA) in the Banking Sector of Selected Arab Countries: Is There a Role for Financial Inclusion and Technology Indicators? 阿拉伯国家银行业资产回报率(ROA)的影响因素:普惠金融和技术指标是否起作用?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p1
Rami Obeid
The objective of this study is to examine, using a dynamic panel data framework, the effects of financial inclusion on the performance of the banking sector, as measured by the return on assets, for eleven Arab countries during the period 2012-2019. In addition to financial inclusion and technologies indicators, our analysis incorporates banking and macroeconomic variables. The study reveals that bank-specific variables have a greater impact on the profitability of banks than macroeconomic variables. The results show that there is a positive and significant impact of the bank’s assets, the bank solvency, the credit growth, the economic growth rate, and the inflation rate on the profitability of the banking sector. However, the return on assets is unaffected by fluctuations in nonperforming loans and the interbank lending rate. Regarding indicators of financial inclusion and technologies, the study finds no evidence of significant effects of automated teller machines (ATM) distribution and bank branch density on return on assets.
本研究的目的是利用动态面板数据框架,研究2012-2019年期间11个阿拉伯国家金融包容性对银行业绩效的影响(以资产回报率衡量)。除了普惠金融和技术指标外,我们的分析还纳入了银行和宏观经济变量。研究发现,银行特定变量对银行盈利能力的影响大于宏观经济变量。结果表明,银行资产、银行偿付能力、信贷增长、经济增长率和通货膨胀率对银行业盈利能力有显著的正向影响。然而,资产回报率不受不良贷款和银行间拆借利率波动的影响。在普惠金融和技术指标方面,研究没有发现自动柜员机(ATM)分布和银行分支机构密度对资产回报率有显著影响的证据。
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引用次数: 1
Foreign Aid Effectiveness in the Education Sector: A Dynamic Panel Analysis 教育部门的外援有效性:动态面板分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n9p10
Bindeswar Prasad Lekhak
In the realm of development economics, foreign aid and economic development are interconnected concepts, both in theory and practice. Education, a fundamental human right, plays a pivotal role in shaping human capital and driving economic progress. With this in mind, the primary objective of this study is to explore the relationships between education aid and the various levels of schooling, namely primary, secondary, and tertiary, in developing countries. The effect of the primary, secondary, and tertiary level education aid of fifty developing countries with 19 years of panel data was investigated to determine the relationship with Primary Completion Rate, Secondary School Net Enrolment Rate, and Tertiary Gross Enrolment Rate, respectively. The study used the system GMM (One-step GMM and Two-step GMM). The findings suggest that a statistically significant relationship exists between education aid and various levels of education, and education aid effectively enhances the education outcome in developing countries. The findings also underline the importance of establishing sound economic foundations, addressing corruption, maintaining optimal Pupil-Teacher Ratio, and emphasizing female teachers. These factors collectively contribute to fostering an enabling environment for enhancing education outcomes in developing countries.
在发展经济学领域,对外援助和经济发展在理论和实践上都是相互联系的概念。教育是一项基本人权,在塑造人力资本和推动经济进步方面发挥着关键作用。考虑到这一点,本研究的主要目的是探讨发展中国家教育援助与各级学校教育(即小学、中学和大学)之间的关系。本文利用19年的面板数据,对50个发展中国家的初等、中等和高等教育援助的效果进行了调查,分别确定了初等完成率、中学净入学率和高等教育毛入学率之间的关系。本研究采用GMM系统(一步GMM和两步GMM)。研究结果表明,教育援助与各级教育水平之间存在统计学显著的关系,教育援助有效地提高了发展中国家的教育成果。研究结果还强调了建立良好的经济基础、解决腐败问题、保持最佳生师比以及重视女性教师的重要性。这些因素共同有助于为提高发展中国家的教育成果创造有利的环境。
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引用次数: 1
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International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies
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