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The Over-Valued Yen and the Low-Pressure Economy Repressed Productivity in Japan 高估的日元和低压力的经济抑制了日本的生产力
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n6p1
K. Hamada, Koji Nomura
In the post-war economy of Japan, the high-pressure economy as defined by Okun and Yellen maintained its real exchange rate relatively low and kept the economy mildly inflationary. Not only did it encourage short-term employment but it also fostered a long-term productivity trend as measured by its total factor productivity (TFP). International pressure for a stronger yen after the Plaza Accord, coupled with the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, created a large exchange rate gap and accordingly, the extreme Japan-U.S. output price gap, referred to as the price level index (PLI), in 1995. It further caused the squeeze of domestic wages and led to the deflationary pressure that plagued the Japanese economy for decades. In our opinion, the exchange rate also depressed domestic capital accumulation caused by the internationally low nominal rate of return on capital and that situation caused the TFP stagnation in Japan.
在战后的日本经济中,奥肯和耶伦定义的高压经济使日本的实际汇率维持在相对较低的水平,并使日本经济保持温和的通胀。它不仅鼓励了短期就业,而且还促进了以全要素生产率(TFP)衡量的长期生产率趋势。广场协议签署后,国际社会要求日元走强的压力,加上日本央行的限制性货币政策,造成了巨大的汇率缺口。产出价格缺口,简称价格水平指数(PLI),在1995年。它进一步造成了国内工资的紧缩,并导致了困扰日本经济数十年的通货紧缩压力。我们认为,汇率也抑制了国际上名义资本回报率较低导致的国内资本积累,这种情况导致了日本TFP的停滞。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring Volatility Persistence and Asymmetric Effects Around Index Rebalancing of Nifty Indices 衡量波动性持久性和指数再平衡的不对称效应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p86
Eshan Ahluwalia, Trilochan Tripathy, A. Mishra
This paper examines the time-varying volatility behavior of the stocks that are added to or deleted from the major indices (Nifty 50 and Nifty Next 50) of the National Stock Exchange of India around the event of index rebalancing. The best fit asymmetric panel GJR-GARCH model estimates suggest that volatility persistence is relatively higher for the stocks added to a prominent benchmark index compared to the stocks deleted from such an index. On the contrary, the stocks deleted from a prominent benchmark index are exposed to a higher degree of volatility asymmetry than the stocks added. Our findings have implications on traders, asset managers, exchange managers, regulators and analysts.
本文研究了在指数再平衡事件前后,印度国家证券交易所主要指数(Nifty 50和Nifty Next 50)的增减股票的时变波动行为。最佳拟合非对称面板GJR-GARCH模型估计表明,与从该指数中删除的股票相比,被添加到突出基准指数的股票的波动性持久性相对较高。相反,从一个重要基准指数中剔除的股票,其波动性不对称程度要高于被纳入指数的股票。我们的研究结果对交易员、资产管理公司、交易所管理公司、监管机构和分析师都有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
The Use of Information Technology in Environmental Management: The Case of Brazilian Amazon Forest 信息技术在环境管理中的应用:以巴西亚马逊森林为例
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-15 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p54
R. Pereira, Celso Vila Nova de S. Júnior, T. Moreira
In the mid 2000´s the Brazilian Government introduced a new environmental policy to reduce deforestation in the “Plan for Prevention and Control of Legal Amazon Deforestation”, (PPCDAM). With 14 years of track record, heavily relying on technological innovation, the policy is nowadays considered a major example of success in the overall war waged against the deforestation of tropical rainforests. In this paper we quantify this success. The results suggest that the policy not only had a direct effect of reducing deforestation, but also rendered deforestation less sensitive to fluctuations in the Amazon commodity production, which can be considered our academic contribution to this paper. We also perform a counterfactual exercise, estimating the levels of deforestation that would have been registered, had the policy not existed. We estimate that the plan saved a total of 196 thousand square kilometers of forest between 2005 and 2015, corresponding to almost twice the total amount of deforestation observed during this period, and 4.9% of the entire Brazilian Amazon Forest.
在2000年代中期,巴西政府在“预防和控制亚马逊森林合法砍伐计划”(PPCDAM)中引入了一项新的环境政策,以减少森林砍伐。14年来,这项政策在很大程度上依赖于技术创新,如今被认为是反对热带雨林砍伐的全面战争中取得成功的一个主要例子。在本文中,我们量化了这一成功。结果表明,该政策不仅具有减少森林砍伐的直接作用,而且使森林砍伐对亚马逊商品生产波动的敏感性降低,这可以视为我们对本文的学术贡献。我们还进行了一项反事实的练习,估计如果没有该政策,将被记录的森林砍伐水平。我们估计,该计划在2005年至2015年期间总共拯救了19.6万平方公里的森林,相当于同期观察到的森林砍伐总量的近两倍,占整个巴西亚马逊森林的4.9%。
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引用次数: 0
As Quantity Theory of Money Is Illogically Derived from Definition Instead Premises, Marx Illogically Constructed the Whole Book of Das Kapital on Inconsistent Premises 由于货币数量理论是不合乎逻辑地从定义而不是从前提推导出来的,马克思在不一致的前提上不合乎逻辑地构建了《资本论》全书
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-15 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p66
C. Ting
The objective of this paper is to examine the truth of the whole book of Das Kapital instead the truth of a particular theory subordinating to the whole book of Das Kapital (e.g., labor theory of value and transformation problem). Theory is composed of logical inferences by which we derive conclusions from premises. One of methods that test the truth of a theory is to investigate the consistency of premises because a theory that is constructed on inconsistent premises will lead to contradictory conclusions. Labor theory of value and profit pursuing based on the analysis of supply and demand (i.e., maximum return rate on capital) are two premises in Das Kapital. This paper shows that labor theory of value and maximum return rate on capital are inconsistent logically because maximum return rate on capital does not operate under labor theory of value and this conclusion is logically contradictory to the premise that maximum return rate on capital operates. Further, shifting in supply curve or demand curve leads to logical contradiction between market monetary price and value while Marx stated that market monetary price is value in money form. Thus, the whole book of Das Kapital is illogical. I also demonstrate that dialectical contradiction and logical contradiction are different. Thus, Marxian cannot deny this paper by the argument that all logical contradictions are dialectic contradiction so that all logical contradictions in Das Kapital are not wrong because real world is dialectical. 
本文的目的是考察《资本论》整本书的真理性,而不是考察从属于《资本论》整本书的某一理论的真理性(如劳动价值论和转化问题)。理论是由逻辑推理组成的,通过逻辑推理,我们可以从前提中得出结论。检验一个理论的真实性的方法之一是调查前提的一致性,因为一个建立在不一致前提上的理论将导致矛盾的结论。劳动价值论和以供需分析为基础的利润追求(即资本的最大回报率)是《资本论》的两个前提。本文表明,劳动价值论与资本最大回报率在逻辑上是不一致的,因为在劳动价值论下资本最大回报率不存在,这一结论与资本最大回报率存在的前提在逻辑上是矛盾的。此外,供给曲线或需求曲线的移动导致市场货币价格与价值之间的逻辑矛盾,而马克思指出市场货币价格是货币形式的价值。因此,《资本论》整本书都是不合逻辑的。辩证矛盾和逻辑矛盾是不同的。因此,马克思主义者不能以一切逻辑矛盾都是辩证矛盾的论点来否定这篇论文,所以《资本论》中的一切逻辑矛盾都不是错误的,因为现实世界是辩证的。
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引用次数: 0
Interrelationships Between the Brazilian Financial Market and Foreign Financial Markets: New Evidence During and After the Subprime Crisis 巴西金融市场与国外金融市场的相互关系:次贷危机期间和之后的新证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p37
E. Z. Monte, Renzo Caliman Souza, Ricardo Ramalhe Moreira
This study analyzed the financial interrelations between Brazil and selected foreign economies (United States (US), Germany, United Kingdom (UK), Japan and China) during and after the Subprime crisis, using three financial market indicators: stock market index, exchange rate and interest rate. The Vector Autoregressive approach and the Granger causality test were used, with daily data. The periods considered were: i) period of crisis (03/14/2007 to 03/31/2010); and ii) post-crisis period (04/01/2010 to 12/30/2019). The results revealed that in the Subprime crisis, the interrelations were intense, especially in the stock and exchange markets. IBOVESPA and Brazilian exchange rate were predominantly affected by the US, German and UK equity markets. Evidence in the post-crisis period showed considerably lesser interrelationships between the Brazilian financial market and foreign financial markets. Thus, the results confirmed that the crisis significantly intensified interrelations, with the main contagion channels as the stock markets and the foreign exchange markets.
本研究使用股票市场指数、汇率和利率三个金融市场指标,分析了次贷危机期间和之后巴西与选定的外国经济体(美国、德国、英国、日本和中国)之间的金融相互关系。使用向量自回归方法和格兰杰因果检验,每日数据。考虑的时期有:1)危机时期(2007年3月14日至2010年3月31日);ii)后危机时期(2010年1月4日至2019年12月30日)。结果表明,在次贷危机中,这种相互关系是强烈的,特别是在股票和交易所市场。IBOVESPA和巴西汇率主要受到美国、德国和英国股市的影响。危机后时期的证据表明,巴西金融市场与外国金融市场之间的相互关系要小得多。因此,研究结果证实,危机显著加剧了相互关系,主要传染渠道是股票市场和外汇市场。
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引用次数: 0
How Efficiently Can Infant Stock Markets Exhibit the Random Walk? Evidence From Malawi 婴儿股票市场如何有效地表现出随机漫步?来自马拉维的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p26
Joseph Paul Chunga, Yu Ping
It is no secret that the Malawi Stock Exchange (MSE) is still in its infancy. In 2011, the Malawi government in conjunction with the World Bank launched the Financial Sector Technical Assistance Project (FSTAP). The project targeted an improvement in financial literacy and also the automation of trading on the MSE to an advanced stage so as to improve market efficiency. This paper investigated the weak form and semi-strong efficient market hypotheses on the Malawi Stock Market in the wake of such a project with aid of parametric and non-parametric tests. The weak form efficiency of the market is tested by the application of Lo and MacKinlay’s Variance ratio test, the Cumby-Huizinga autocorrelation test and the Phillips-Perron unit root test. An adjustment to the methodology suggested by Borges (2009) is employed to ascertain the presence of market anomalies and by extension test out semi-strong form of efficiency. The paper employed more recent and comprehensive data stretching back to January 2010 through to June, 2022, amounting to 12years and 6months. Results are in support of weak form efficiency. However, the paper found significant evidence against semi-strong efficiency of the MSE. Calendar effects like day-of-the-week effect and turn-of-the-year effect were deemed to be absent from the market but turn-of-the-month effect was existent. Results of applying the Fama and French three-factor model to a time series regression reveal the presence of size and value effects. As such, the paper concludes that the Malawi Stock Market is weak-form efficient but semi-strong inefficient.
马拉维证券交易所(MSE)仍处于起步阶段,这不是什么秘密。2011年,马拉维政府与世界银行共同启动了金融部门技术援助项目(FSTAP)。该项目的目标是提高金融知识水平,并将MSE的交易自动化提高到一个高级阶段,以提高市场效率。本文借助参数检验和非参数检验,对马拉维股票市场的弱形式和半强有效市场假设进行了研究。运用Lo和MacKinlay方差比检验、Cumby-Huizinga自相关检验和Phillips-Perron单位根检验对市场弱形式效率进行检验。对博尔赫斯(2009)提出的方法进行调整,以确定市场异常的存在,并通过扩展检验半强形式的效率。该论文采用了更近期、更全面的数据,时间跨度从2010年1月至2022年6月,总计12年零6个月。结果支持弱形式效率。然而,本文发现了反对MSE半强效率的重要证据。我们认为市场不存在星期效应、岁末效应等日历效应,但存在月末效应。将Fama和French三因素模型应用于时间序列回归的结果显示存在规模和价值效应。因此,本文的结论是马拉维股票市场是弱形式有效,但半强低效。
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引用次数: 0
Interactions of Gross Domestic Product, External Debt and Government Expenditure: Evidence From International Development Association Countries [A Panel-VAR Approach] 国内生产总值、外债和政府支出的相互作用:来自国际开发协会国家的证据[Panel-VAR方法]
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p11
Krishna Hari Baral
The study employed a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the relationships among three macroeconomic variables- Gross Domestic Product, Total External Debt Stocks, and Gross National Expenditure - in International Development Association (IDA) member countries. Data from three different time frames - 1991-2019 (29 countries), 1994-2018 (35 countries), and 2008-2018 (39 countries) – was analyzed, and the lags of endogenous variables were used as instruments to address endogeneity issues in the dynamic model. The variables were transformed into growth rates to ensure stationarity and were estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results were reported after removing both panel-specific and time-specific fixed effects. The study found a positive relationship between Total External Debt Stocks growth and Gross Domestic Product growth, which became more significant with the increase in the sample timeframe. The findings showed that a 100% increase in Total External Debt growth would lead to a 4-7% increase in Gross Domestic Product growth. The positive relationship was confirmed by the transmission of shocks from Total External Debt growth to Gross Domestic Product growth, but it lasted only for two periods and quickly returned to an equilibrium state. The relationship between Gross National Expenditure growth and the other variables was not conclusively established due to its lack of consistent and stable behavior with the other variables. The Stata package “pvar” was employed for data analysis and inferential conclusions.
本研究采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型考察了国际开发协会(IDA)成员国国内生产总值、外债存量总额和国民支出总额这三个宏观经济变量之间的关系。对1991-2019年(29个国家)、1994-2018年(35个国家)和2008-2018年(39个国家)三个不同时间段的数据进行了分析,并将内生变量的滞后作为解决动态模型内生性问题的工具。将变量转换为增长率以确保平稳性,并使用广义矩量法(GMM)进行估计。结果是在去除组特异性和时间特异性固定效应后报告的。研究发现,总外债存量增长与国内生产总值增长之间存在正相关关系,随着样本时间框架的增加,这种关系变得更加显著。研究结果表明,总外债增长100%将导致国内生产总值增长4-7%。外债总额增长对国内生产总值增长的冲击传递证实了这种积极关系,但这种关系只持续了两个时期,并迅速恢复到平衡状态。国民总支出增长与其他变量之间的关系尚未最终确定,因为它与其他变量之间缺乏一致和稳定的关系。采用Stata软件包“pvar”进行数据分析和推断结论。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Perspective Thought Experiment on Russian Cyber Threat Actors 俄罗斯网络威胁行为者的金融视角思想实验
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n5p1
Zsolt Bederrna
Due to the advancement of information and communication technology and related services, the digital world has reached many people, private companies, and governments, and meanwhile, threat actors regarding motivation, knowledge, and capabilities have also evolved, and thus, today, they compete and collaborate with others. Financially motivated threat actors also do businesses; as such, with a higher sophistication level, they create tools and provide them as Malware as a Service (MaaS) for renting, and if they can extract accounts, they launder those amounts of cash through hardly traceable channels. In contrast, state-sponsored threat actors act according to the government’s political and military needs. The Russian government lets independent threat actors freely conduct various cyberattacks, including cyber espionage, sabotage, and ransomware attacks on non-Russian geolocations and entities, meanwhile financing its threat actors to achieve social and political activities. As such, providing a thought experiment, the paper examines the potential income of a for-profit organization, the related tax income, and the costs of operating a government-related threat actor. To conduct the analysis, it provides a methodological approach and applies that to TA542 and APT28 threat actors, using inputs from open-source intelligence.
由于信息通信技术和相关服务的进步,数字世界已经触及了许多人、私人公司和政府,同时,威胁行为者在动机、知识和能力方面也在发展,因此,今天,他们与他人竞争和合作。出于经济动机的威胁行为者也从事商业活动;因此,随着技术水平的提高,他们创造了工具,并将其作为恶意软件即服务(MaaS)提供给租户,如果他们可以提取账户,他们就会通过难以追踪的渠道洗钱。相比之下,国家支持的威胁行为者根据政府的政治和军事需要行事。俄罗斯政府允许独立的威胁行为者自由地进行各种网络攻击,包括对非俄罗斯地理位置和实体的网络间谍活动、破坏活动和勒索软件攻击,同时为其威胁行为者提供资金,以实现社会和政治活动。因此,本文提供了一个思想实验,研究了营利性组织的潜在收入、相关的税收收入以及运营与政府相关的威胁行为者的成本。为了进行分析,它提供了一种方法学方法,并使用来自开源情报的输入将其应用于TA542和APT28威胁参与者。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Board Size: A Longitudinal Analysis with 194 Firms Listed on the B3 S/A 董事会规模的决定因素:对B3 S/A上194家上市公司的纵向分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n4p60
Mislene Maria da Costa, Flávia Lorenne Sampaio Barbosa, Fabiana Pinto de Almeida Bizarria, João Carlos Hipólito Bernardes do Nascimento, Rogeane Morais Ribeiro, Maria do Socorro Silva Mesquita
The research aims to analyze determinants of board size (BD) of companies listed on B3 S/A, from 2014 to 2019, with data collected by the Com.dinheiro.com platform. The hypotheses “firm size is positively related to board size” (H1); “firm ownership structure is negatively related to board size” (H2); and, “firm performance is positively related to board size” (H3), were quantitatively analyzed by multiple linear regression, heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity tests and F-statistics, based on the variables: company size (TAMA); ownership structure; type of control; performance (EBITDA), and control variable, gender of the board of directors and the year. The results indicate that board size was explained by company size, ownership structure, and performance, confirming the three proposed hypotheses. For future research we suggest the use of other dependent variables that portray the board structure.
该研究旨在分析2014年至2019年B3 S/A上市公司董事会规模(BD)的决定因素,数据由Com.dinheiro.com平台收集。假设“公司规模与董事会规模正相关”(H1);“公司股权结构与董事会规模负相关”(H2);和“公司绩效与董事会规模正相关”(H3),基于变量:公司规模(TAMA),通过多元线性回归、异方差和多重共线性检验和f统计进行定量分析;所有权结构;控制类型;业绩(EBITDA),以及控制变量、董事会性别和年度。结果表明,董事会规模可以由公司规模、股权结构和绩效来解释,证实了三个假设。对于未来的研究,我们建议使用描绘董事会结构的其他因变量。
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引用次数: 0
Transaction Costs in Voluntary Social Organisations 自愿性社会组织的交易成本
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n4p35
M. Clausen
The increasing use of targeted social investments has led to relevant research interest in the transaction costs of social efforts. However, the majority of the research is characterised by the following two challenges: first, the analyses are often limited to public sources of revenue and, therefore, exclude private sources; and second, the transaction costs are measured based on self-declared information about administrative costs. The article contributes to the field of research in two ways. First, the contribution is made through an analytical model that brings together private and public revenue streams in a single model, providing a unique opportunity to compare the transaction costs from these two sources. Second, in this article, transaction costs are measured based on the actual development in the number of administrative academic full-time equivalents (FTEs) in the organisations. The latter attribute also achieves a better link to the theory in the field, which precisely focuses on administrative employees. The article derived data from a longitudinal dataset for 2012‒17 with the accounts for revenue in the nationwide voluntary social organisations and register data from Statistics Denmark on the education and working hours of employees in organisations. The article finds that targeted project funds (that is, earmarked funding) from private sources have significantly higher transaction costs than government project funds and general public operating grants. Smaller organisations were also shown to generally have higher costs when striving to secure funding than larger organisations with economies of scale.
越来越多地使用有针对性的社会投资导致了对社会努力的交易成本的相关研究兴趣。然而,大多数研究的特点是以下两个挑战:首先,分析往往限于公共收入来源,因此排除了私人来源;其次,交易成本是基于自我声明的管理成本信息来衡量的。这篇文章在两个方面对该领域的研究做出了贡献。首先,该贡献是通过一个分析模型做出的,该模型将私人和公共收入流汇集在一个模型中,为比较这两个来源的交易成本提供了一个独特的机会。其次,在本文中,交易成本是根据组织中行政学术专职人员(fte)数量的实际发展来衡量的。后者的属性也与该领域的理论实现了更好的联系,而该领域正是以行政人员为研究对象。本文的数据来自2012-17年的纵向数据集,其中包括全国志愿社会组织的收入账户,以及丹麦统计局关于组织中雇员的教育和工作时间的登记数据。本文发现,来自私人来源的定向项目资金(即专项资金)的交易成本明显高于政府项目资金和一般公共运营赠款。较小的组织在争取获得资金时,通常比具有规模经济的大型组织的成本更高。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies
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