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Assessment of Time Series Models for Mean Discharge Modeling and Forecasting in a Sub-Basin of the Paranaíba River, Brazil 巴西Paranaíba河子流域平均流量建模与预报的时间序列模型评价
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10110208
Gabriela Emiliana de Melo e Costa, Frederico Carlos M. de Menezes Filho, Fausto A. Canales, Maria Clara Fava, Abderraman R. Amorim Brandão, Rafael Pedrollo de Paes
Stochastic modeling to forecast hydrological variables under changing climatic conditions is essential for water resource management and adaptation planning. This study explores the applicability of stochastic models, specifically SARIMA and SARIMAX, to forecast monthly average river discharge in a sub-basin of the Paranaíba River near Patos de Minas, MG, Brazil. The Paranaíba River is a vital water source for the Alto Paranaíba region, serving industrial supply, drinking water effluent dilution for urban communities, agriculture, fishing, and tourism. The study evaluates the performance of SARIMA and SARIMAX models in long-term discharge modeling and forecasting, demonstrating the SARIMAX model’s superior performance in various metrics, including the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The inclusion of precipitation as a regressor variable considerably improves the forecasting accuracy, and can be attributed to the multivariate structure of the SARIMAX model. While stochastic models like SARIMAX offer valuable decision-making tools for water resource management, the study underscores the significance of employing long-term time series encompassing flood and drought periods and including model uncertainty analysis to enhance the robustness of forecasts. In this study, the SARIMAX model provides a better fit for extreme values, overestimating peaks by around 11.6% and troughs by about 5.0%, compared with the SARIMA model, which tends to underestimate peaks by an average of 6.5% and overestimate troughs by approximately 76.0%. The findings contribute to the literature on water management strategies and mitigating risks associated with extreme hydrological events.
利用随机模型预测气候变化条件下的水文变量对水资源管理和适应性规划至关重要。本研究探讨了随机模型的适用性,特别是SARIMA和SARIMAX,以预测巴西MG州帕托斯德米纳斯附近Paranaíba河子流域的月平均河流流量。Paranaíba河是阿尔托Paranaíba地区的重要水源,为工业供应、城市社区的饮用水废水稀释、农业、渔业和旅游业提供服务。研究对SARIMA和SARIMAX模型在长期流量建模和预测中的性能进行了评价,结果表明SARIMAX模型在Nash-Sutcliffe系数(NSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)等指标上表现优异。将降水作为回归变量显著提高了预测精度,这可归因于SARIMAX模型的多元结构。虽然像SARIMAX这样的随机模型为水资源管理提供了有价值的决策工具,但该研究强调了采用包括洪涝和干旱时期在内的长期时间序列并包括模型不确定性分析以增强预测稳健性的重要性。在本研究中,SARIMAX模型提供了更好的极值拟合,峰值高估约11.6%,低谷高估约5.0%,而SARIMA模型倾向于平均低估峰值6.5%,高估低谷约76.0%。这些发现有助于水资源管理策略和减轻与极端水文事件相关的风险的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Electrical Resistivity Survey Data for Aquifer Potential and Protective Capacity at Mararaba Dan-Daudu Minna, North Central Nigeria 尼日利亚中北部明纳 Mararaba Dan-Daudu 地下蓄水层潜力和保护能力的电阻率勘测数据分析
IF 3.2 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-28 DOI: 10.11648/j.hyd.20231104.12
Alfa Idris Alhaji, Salako Kazeem Adeyinka, Rafiu Abdulwaheed Adewuyi, Udensi Emmanuel Emeka, Adetona Abbas Adebayo, Jamilu Shehu
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引用次数: 0
Sea-Level Rise in Pakistan: Recommendations for Strengthening Evidence-Based Coastal Decision-Making 巴基斯坦海平面上升:加强基于证据的沿海决策的建议
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10110205
Jennifer H. Weeks, Syeda Nadra Ahmed, Joseph D. Daron, Benjamin J. Harrison, Peter Hogarth, Tariq Ibrahim, Asif Inam, Arshi Khan, Faisal Ahmed Khan, Tariq Masood Ali Khan, Ghulam Rasul, Nadia Rehman, Akhlaque A. Qureshi, Sardar Sarfaraz
Pakistan is vulnerable to a range of climate hazards, including sea-level rise. The Indus Delta region, situated in the coastal Sindh province, is particularly at risk of sea-level rise due to low-lying land and fragile ecosystems. In this article, expertise is drawn together from the newly established Pakistan Sea-Level Working Group, consisting of policy experts, scientists, and practitioners, to provide recommendations for future research, investment, and coastal risk management. An assessment of the current scientific understanding of sea-level change and coastal climate risks in Pakistan highlights an urgent need to improve the availability and access to sea-level data and other coastal measurements. In addition, reflecting on the policy environment and the enablers needed to facilitate effective responses to future sea-level change, recommendations are made to integrate coastal climate services into the National Adaptation Plan and develop a National Framework for Climate Services. Such a framework, alongside collaboration, co-production, and capacity development, could help support required improvements in coastal observations and monitoring and continuously deliver useful, usable, and accessible sea-level information for use by practitioners and decision-makers.
巴基斯坦容易受到包括海平面上升在内的一系列气候灾害的影响。位于沿海省份信德省的印度河三角洲地区由于地势低洼和生态系统脆弱,尤其面临海平面上升的风险。在这篇文章中,专家们从新成立的巴基斯坦海平面工作小组(由政策专家、科学家和实践者组成)中汲取经验,为未来的研究、投资和沿海风险管理提供建议。对目前对巴基斯坦海平面变化和沿海气候风险的科学认识的评估强调,迫切需要改善海平面数据和其他沿海测量数据的可得性和可及性。此外,对政策环境和促进有效应对未来海平面变化所需的推动因素进行了反思,提出了将沿海气候服务纳入国家适应计划和制定国家气候服务框架的建议。这样的框架,加上协作、联合生产和能力发展,可以帮助支持沿海观测和监测的必要改进,并持续提供有用、可用和可访问的海平面信息,供从业者和决策者使用。
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引用次数: 0
Locating Potential Groundwater Pathways in a Fringing Reef Using Continuous Electrical Resistivity Profiling 利用连续电阻率剖面定位边缘礁潜在的地下水通道
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10110206
Matthew W. Becker, Francine M. Cason, Benjamin Hagedorn
Groundwater discharge from high tropical islands can have a significant influence on the biochemistry of reef ecosystems. Recent studies have suggested that a portion of groundwater may underflow the reefs to be discharged, either through the reef flat or toward the periphery of the reef system. Understanding of this potential discharge process is limited by the characterization of subsurface reef structures in these environments. A geophysical method was used in this study to profile the reef surrounding the high volcanic island of Mo’orea, French Polynesia. Boat-towed continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) revealed electrically resistive features at about 10–15 m depth, ranging in width from 30 to 200 m. These features were repeatable in duplicate survey lines, but resolution was limited by current-channeling through the seawater column. Anomalous resistivity could represent the occurrence of freshened porewater confined within the reef, but a change in porosity due to secondary cementation cannot be ruled out. Groundwater-freshened reef porewater has been observed near-shore on Mo’orea and suggested elsewhere using similar geophysical surveys, but synthetic models conducted as part of this study demonstrate that CRP alone is insufficient to draw these conclusions. These CRP surveys suggest reefs surrounding high islands may harbor pathways for terrestrial groundwater flow, but invasive sampling is required to demonstrate the role of groundwater in terrestrial runoff.
热带高海拔岛屿的地下水排放对珊瑚礁生态系统的生物化学具有重要影响。最近的研究表明,一部分地下水可能会通过礁滩或向礁系统的外围流出。对这种潜在排放过程的理解受到这些环境中地下礁结构特征的限制。在这项研究中使用了地球物理方法来描绘法属波利尼西亚Mo 'orea火山岛周围的珊瑚礁。船拖连续电阻率剖面(CRP)显示了10-15米深度的电阻特征,宽度从30米到200米不等。这些特征在重复的测量线中是可重复的,但由于海水柱中的电流通道,分辨率受到限制。异常电阻率可以代表礁体内部有新鲜孔隙水的存在,但也不能排除次生胶结作用导致孔隙度变化的可能性。在Mo 'orea的近岸观测到地下水淡水珊瑚礁孔隙水,并在其他地方使用类似的地球物理调查,但作为本研究的一部分进行的合成模型表明,CRP本身不足以得出这些结论。这些CRP调查表明,高岛周围的珊瑚礁可能为陆地地下水流动提供通道,但需要侵入性取样来证明地下水在陆地径流中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Characterization of Extreme Rainfall and River Discharge over the Senegal River Basin from 1982 to 2021 1982 - 2021年塞内加尔河流域极端降水和河流流量特征
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10100204
Assane Ndiaye, Mamadou Lamine Mbaye, Joël Arnault, Moctar Camara, Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin
Extreme hydroclimate events usually have harmful impacts of human activities and ecosystems. This study aims to assess trends and significant changes in rainfall and river flow over the Senegal River Basin (SRB) and its upper basin during the 1982–2021 period. Eight hydroclimate indices, namely maximum river discharge (QMAX), standardized flow index, mean daily rainfall intensity index (SDII), maximum 5-day consecutive rainfall (RX5DAY), annual rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (R95P), annual rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (R99P), annual flows exceeding the 95th percentile (Q95P), and annual flows exceeding the 99th percentile (Q95P), were considered. The modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) were used to analyze trends, while standard normal homogeneity and Pettit’s tests were used to detect potential breakpoints in these trends. The results indicate an irregular precipitation pattern, with high values of extreme precipitation indices (R95p, R99p, SDII, and RX5DAY) reaching 25 mm, 50 mm, 20 mm/day, and 70 mm, respectively, in the southern part, whereas the northern part recorded low values varying around 5 mm, 10 mm, 5 mm/day, and 10 mm, respectively, for R95P, R99P, SDII, and RX5DAY. The interannual analysis revealed a significant increase (p-value < 5%) in the occurrences of heavy precipitation between 1982 and 2021, as manifested by a positive slope; a notable breakpoint emerged around the years 2006 and 2007, indicating a transition to a significantly wetter period starting from 2008. Concerning extreme flows, a significant increase was observed between 1982 and 2021 with Sen’s slopes for extreme flows (29.33 for Q95P, 37.49 for Q99P, and 38.55 for QMAX). This study provides a better understanding of and insights into past hydroclimate extremes and can serve as a foundation for future research in the field.
极端水文气候事件通常对人类活动和生态系统产生有害影响。本研究旨在评估1982-2021年期间塞内加尔河流域(SRB)及其上游流域的降雨和河流流量的趋势和显著变化。考虑了最大河流流量(QMAX)、标准化流量指数、平均日降雨强度指数(SDII)、最大连续5天降雨量(RX5DAY)、年降雨量超过第95百分位(R95P)、年降雨量超过第99百分位(R99P)、年流量超过第95百分位(Q95P)、年流量超过第99百分位(Q95P) 8个水文气候指标。采用修正Mann-Kendall检验(MMK)和创新趋势分析(ITA)分析趋势,采用标准正态齐性检验和Pettit检验检测这些趋势的潜在断点。结果表明,南区极端降水指数(R95p、R99p、SDII和RX5DAY)的高值分别为25 mm、50 mm、20 mm/d和70 mm,北区R95p、R99p、SDII和RX5DAY的低值分别为5 mm、10 mm、5 mm/d和10 mm左右。年际分析显示显著增加(p值<1982 ~ 2021年的强降水出现率为5%),呈正斜率;一个显著的转折点出现在2006年和2007年,表明从2008年开始向一个明显湿润的时期过渡。在极端流量方面,1982年至2021年间,极端流量的Sen斜率显著增加(Q95P为29.33,Q99P为37.49,QMAX为38.55)。该研究有助于更好地理解和洞察过去的水文气候极端事件,并可为未来的研究奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient Flood Early Warning System for Data-Scarce, Karstic, Mountainous Environments: A Case Study 数据稀缺、喀斯特、山区环境的有效洪水预警系统:一个案例研究
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10100203
Evangelos Rozos, Vasilis Bellos, John Kalogiros, Katerina Mazi
This paper presents an efficient flood early warning system developed for the city of Mandra, Greece which experienced a devastating flood event in November 2017 resulting in significant loss of life. The location is of particular interest due to both its small-sized water basin (20 km2 upstream of the studied cross-section), necessitating a rapid response time for effective flood warning calculations, and the lack of hydrometric data. To address the first issue, a database of pre-simulated flooding events with a 2D hydrodynamic model corresponding to synthetic precipitations with different return periods was established. To address the latter issue, the hydrological model was calibrated using qualitative information collected after the catastrophic event, compensating for the lack of hydrometric data. The case study demonstrates the establishment of a hybrid (online–offline) flood early warning system in data-scarce environments. By utilizing pre-simulated events and qualitative information, the system provides valuable insights for flood forecasting and aids in decision-making processes. This approach can be applied to other similar locations with limited data availability, contributing to improved flood management strategies and enhanced community resilience.
本文介绍了为希腊曼德拉市开发的高效洪水预警系统,该城市在2017年11月经历了一场毁灭性的洪水事件,造成了重大的生命损失。该地点特别令人感兴趣,因为它的水盆面积小(研究断面上游20平方公里),需要快速响应时间进行有效的洪水预警计算,并且缺乏水文数据。为了解决第一个问题,建立了一个预先模拟的洪水事件数据库,该数据库具有与不同重现期的合成降水相对应的二维水动力模型。为了解决后一个问题,利用灾难性事件后收集的定性信息对水文模型进行了校准,以弥补水文数据的缺乏。案例研究展示了在数据稀缺环境下建立一种混合型(线上-线下)洪水预警系统。通过利用预先模拟的事件和定性信息,该系统为洪水预报和决策过程提供了有价值的见解。这种方法可以应用于数据可用性有限的其他类似地点,有助于改善洪水管理策略和增强社区复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Simple and Cost-Effective Method for Reliable Indirect Determination of Field Capacity 一种简单、经济、可靠的间接测定现场容量的方法
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10100202
Cansu Almaz, Markéta Miháliková, Kamila Báťková, Jan Vopravil, Svatopluk Matula, Tomáš Khel, Recep Serdar Kara
This study introduces a simple and cost-effective method for the indirect determination of field capacity (FC) in soil, a critical parameter for soil hydrology and environmental modeling. The relationships between FC and soil moisture constants, specifically maximum capillary water capacity (MCWC) and retention water capacity (RWC), were established using undisturbed soil core samples analyzed via the pressure plate method and the “filter paper draining method”. The aim was to reduce the time and costs associated with traditional FC measurement methods, as well as allowing for the use of legacy databases containing MCWC and RWC values. The results revealed the substantial potential of the “filter paper draining method” as a promising approach for indirect FC determination. FC determined as soil water content at −33 kPa can be effectively approximated by the equation FC33 = 1.0802 RWC − 0.0688 (with RMSE = 0.045 cm3/cm3 and R = 0.953). FC determined as soil water content at −5 or −10 kPa can be effectively approximated by both equations FC5 = 1.0146 MCWC − 0.0163 (with RMSE = 0.027 cm3/cm3 and R = 0.961) and FC10 = 1.0152 MCWC − 0.0275 (with RMSE = 0.033 cm3/cm3 and R = 0.958), respectively. Historical pedotransfer functions by Brežný and Váša relating FC to fine particle size fraction were also evaluated for practical application, and according to the results, they cannot be recommended for use.
本文介绍了一种简单而经济的方法来间接测定土壤的田间容量(FC),这是土壤水文和环境建模的一个关键参数。通过压力板法和“滤纸排水法”分析原状土芯样品,建立了FC与土壤水分常数,特别是最大毛管水容量(MCWC)和持水量(RWC)之间的关系。其目的是减少与传统FC测量方法相关的时间和成本,并允许使用包含MCWC和RWC值的遗留数据库。结果表明,“滤纸排水法”作为一种有前途的间接测定FC的方法具有很大的潜力。- 33 kPa时土壤含水量FC可有效地近似为:FC33 = 1.0802 RWC - 0.0688 (RMSE = 0.045 cm3/cm3, R = 0.953)。- 5或- 10 kPa土壤含水量测定的FC可以分别用方程FC5 = 1.0146 MCWC - 0.0163 (RMSE = 0.027 cm3/cm3, R = 0.961)和FC10 = 1.0152 MCWC - 0.0275 (RMSE = 0.033 cm3/cm3, R = 0.958)有效地近似。通过Brežný和Váša对FC与细粒度分数的历史土壤传递函数也进行了实际应用评估,根据结果,它们不能被推荐使用。
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引用次数: 0
The Integrated Use of Heavy-Metal Pollution Indices and the Assessment of Metallic Health Risks in the Phreatic Groundwater Aquifer—The Case of the Oued Souf Valley in Algeria 潜水含水层重金属污染指数综合应用及金属健康风险评价——以阿尔及利亚Oued Souf河谷为例
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-15 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10100201
Ayoub Barkat, Foued Bouaicha, Sabrina Ziad, Tamás Mester, Zsófi Sajtos, Dániel Balla, Islam Makhloufi, György Szabó
In this research, contamination levels and the spatial pattern identification, as well as human and environmental health risk assessments of the heavy metals in the phreatic groundwater aquifer of the Oued Souf Valley were investigated for the first time. The applied methodology comprised a combination of heavy-metal pollution indices, inverse distance weighting, and human health risk assessment through water ingestion on samples collected from (14) monitoring wells. The contamination trend in the phreatic aquifer showed Al > B > Sr > Mn > Fe > Pb > Ni > Cr > Ba > Cu > Zn. Similarly, the enrichment trend was Al > B > Sr > Mn > Ni > Pb > Cr > Ba > Cu > Zn. Ecologically, most of the analyzed metals reflected a low potential ecological risk, except for two wells, S13 and S14, which represented a considerable and high ecological risk in terms of Pb. According to the applied grouping method, the samples in the first group indicated a lower risk of contamination in terms of heavy metals due to their lower concentration compared to the second group. This makes the area containing the second group’s samples more vulnerable in terms of heavy metals, which could affect urban, preurban, and even agricultural areas. All of the samples (100%) indicated the possibility of potential health risks in the case of children. While six samples showed that the non-cancer toxicity risk is considered low, the rest of the samples had high Hazard Index (HI) values, indicating the possibility of health risks occurring in the case of adults. The constructed vertical drainage system is acting as a supporter and accelerator of the pollution levels in the shallow groundwater aquifer. This is due to its contribution to the penetration of different pollutants into this aquifer system, depending on the residence time of the water, which appears to be long within the drainage system.
本文首次开展了乌德苏夫河谷深层地下水重金属污染水平、空间格局识别、人体健康和环境健康风险评价等方面的研究。应用的方法包括重金属污染指数、逆距离加权和通过对(14)口监测井采集的样本的饮水进行人体健康风险评估。潜水含水层的污染趋势为Al >B在老的在Mn祝辞菲比;Pb祝辞倪祝辞Cr祝辞英航在铜比;锌。同样,富集趋势为Al >B在老的在Mn祝辞倪祝辞Pb祝辞Cr祝辞英航在铜比;锌。生态上,除S13井和S14井具有较高的Pb生态风险外,其余金属元素的潜在生态风险均较低。根据应用的分组方法,第一组样品的重金属浓度较第二组低,因此污染风险较低。这使得含有第二组样本的地区在重金属方面更加脆弱,这可能影响到城市,城市前,甚至农业地区。所有样本(100%)都表明儿童可能存在潜在的健康风险。虽然6个样本显示非癌症毒性风险被认为很低,但其余样本的危害指数(HI)值很高,表明成年人可能出现健康风险。建成的垂直排水系统是浅层地下水含水层污染水平的支持者和加速器。这是由于它对不同污染物渗透到这个含水层系统的贡献,这取决于水在排水系统中的停留时间,这似乎很长。
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引用次数: 0
Deficit Irrigation and Mulching Impacts on Major Crop Yield and Water Efficiency: A Review 亏缺灌覆对主要作物产量和水分利用效率的影响
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.11648/j.hyd.20231104.11
Zalalem Tamiru Bekele, Addisu Asefa Mengasha
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Watershed Characteristics Effects on Stream Flow (A Case of Chacha Watershed, Abay Basin, Ethiopia) 流域特征对河流流量的影响评价(以埃塞俄比亚Abay盆地Chacha流域为例)
Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.11648/j.hyd.20231103.12
Getnet Solomon Temtime
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引用次数: 0
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