B NG Abstract The public disclosure of medium-term fiscal plans – “fiscal guidance” – repre sents an increasingly important, yet understudied element of fiscal transparency frameworks. This article introduces a dataset that contains a large set of forecasts on fiscal and economic items issued by all European Union governments over the period 2001-2018. These forecasts are used to build an index of fiscal guidance transparency and to explore its main characteristics and correlates. The analysis reveals that governments are more transparent in their guidance on fiscal flows and macroeconomic aggregates than on liabilities, assets, and exogenous assump tions. In addition, transparency declines in the forecast horizon and in the strength of the governing coalition. Collectively, the results suggest that fiscal guidance transparency may be a sensitive area of policymaking that deserves scholarly attention. Possible uses of the measure of fiscal guidance transparency in research are discussed.
{"title":"Measuring fiscal guidance transparency","authors":"C. Columbano","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.2.4","url":null,"abstract":"B NG Abstract The public disclosure of medium-term fiscal plans – “fiscal guidance” – repre sents an increasingly important, yet understudied element of fiscal transparency frameworks. This article introduces a dataset that contains a large set of forecasts on fiscal and economic items issued by all European Union governments over the period 2001-2018. These forecasts are used to build an index of fiscal guidance transparency and to explore its main characteristics and correlates. The analysis reveals that governments are more transparent in their guidance on fiscal flows and macroeconomic aggregates than on liabilities, assets, and exogenous assump tions. In addition, transparency declines in the forecast horizon and in the strength of the governing coalition. Collectively, the results suggest that fiscal guidance transparency may be a sensitive area of policymaking that deserves scholarly attention. Possible uses of the measure of fiscal guidance transparency in research are discussed.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41561789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we discuss aggregate measures of marginal costs of public funds (MCF) in populations that are heterogeneous with respect to observed as well as unobserved characteristics. We first discuss how to compute MCF in selected examples of traditional (textbook) labour supply models. Next, we review two types of discrete labour supply models proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss how to calculate aggregate measures of MCF for discrete labour supply models. Finally, we apply an estimated two-sector discrete labour supply model to compute MCF based on Norwegian data.
{"title":"Aggregate marginal costs of public funds","authors":"J. Dagsvik, S. Strøm","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we discuss aggregate measures of marginal costs of public funds (MCF) in populations that are heterogeneous with respect to observed as well as unobserved characteristics. We first discuss how to compute MCF in selected examples of traditional (textbook) labour supply models. Next, we review two types of discrete labour supply models proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss how to calculate aggregate measures of MCF for discrete labour supply models. Finally, we apply an estimated two-sector discrete labour supply model to compute MCF based on Norwegian data.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44505267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local Public Finance - An International Comparative Regulatory Perspective","authors":"Tanja Futur Sikic","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.2.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.2.6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47893650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike its predecessor studies, this paper investigates the contemporaneous and lagged effects of institutional variables on tax performance, using unbalanced panel data from 79 developing countries for the 2002-2019 period. The instrumental varia ble (IV) and system-generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimation models were employed in this study to address potential endogeneity and specification biases in the estimation model. Generally, this study found that countries with low corruption levels and good governance quality could produce more tax revenues. Moreover, the lagged effects of institutional variables, which are much more substantial than their contemporary effects, provide meaningful insight. Efforts directed at fighting corruption and improving the quality of governance must be carried out as early as possible to obtain optimal tax revenues in the future. These efforts can be taken by streamlining tax administration, so that opportunities for bribery and corruption can be reduced.
{"title":"Institutional environment and tax performance: empirical evidence from developing economies","authors":"Prianto Budi Saptono, Gustofan Mahmud","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike its predecessor studies, this paper investigates the contemporaneous and lagged effects of institutional variables on tax performance, using unbalanced panel data from 79 developing countries for the 2002-2019 period. The instrumental varia ble (IV) and system-generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimation models were employed in this study to address potential endogeneity and specification biases in the estimation model. Generally, this study found that countries with low corruption levels and good governance quality could produce more tax revenues. Moreover, the lagged effects of institutional variables, which are much more substantial than their contemporary effects, provide meaningful insight. Efforts directed at fighting corruption and improving the quality of governance must be carried out as early as possible to obtain optimal tax revenues in the future. These efforts can be taken by streamlining tax administration, so that opportunities for bribery and corruption can be reduced.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49493710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rebellion, Rascals, and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom through the Ages","authors":"D. Mihaljek","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44062732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
* The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not in any way reflect the official policy, position or opinion of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor or of Credit Suisse Group AG, Zurich, Switzerland. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable remarks and suggestions. ** Received: March 5, 2021 Accepted: October 1, 2021
{"title":"The impact of macroprudential policy on financial stability in selected EU countries","authors":"Eva Lorenčič, Mejra Festić","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"* The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not in any way reflect the official policy, position or opinion of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor or of Credit Suisse Group AG, Zurich, Switzerland. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable remarks and suggestions. ** Received: March 5, 2021 Accepted: October 1, 2021","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43093313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper evaluates the Croatia 's seven-year membership in the European Union based on selected macroeconomic indicators by using a methodological approach, counterfactual analysis, and a synthetic control method. The results showed that the effect of the accession stimulated the economic growth and components of aggregate demand, income, savings and sectoral productivity. Also, strong disturbances with the onset of the crisis in 2009 were detected, the effects ofwhich ultimately had a negative consequence in terms of more successful economic integration. Accession to the EU halted the dedine in macroeconomic indicators and began a mild, but still insufficient recovery. The research confirms a strong trend of export development after 2013, a strong turn and increase in savings, a strong and significant decline in the value added of the agriculture sector as well as not recovered consumption. Also, the positive effect in the reduction of government expenditures is expressed.
{"title":"Evaluation of macroeconomic outcomes and the seven-year membership in the European Union","authors":"I. Rukavina","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"The paper evaluates the Croatia 's seven-year membership in the European Union based on selected macroeconomic indicators by using a methodological approach, counterfactual analysis, and a synthetic control method. The results showed that the effect of the accession stimulated the economic growth and components of aggregate demand, income, savings and sectoral productivity. Also, strong disturbances with the onset of the crisis in 2009 were detected, the effects ofwhich ultimately had a negative consequence in terms of more successful economic integration. Accession to the EU halted the dedine in macroeconomic indicators and began a mild, but still insufficient recovery. The research confirms a strong trend of export development after 2013, a strong turn and increase in savings, a strong and significant decline in the value added of the agriculture sector as well as not recovered consumption. Also, the positive effect in the reduction of government expenditures is expressed.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47783296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the impact of the regulator S statement requesting EU insurers to suspend dividend distributions due to the COVID-19 pandemic on share prices of insurance companies. The purpose of the regulation was to maintain a high level of capitalisation of insurance companies, thus allowing them to pay compensation for any damage incurred during the crisis. The statistical significance of the potential negative impact was explored using event study methodology. The empirical results suggest that the negative impact following the statementS release is not statistically significant over the chosen event window. The robustness of the results is confirmed by several statistical tests - parametric and nonparametric. The measure did not result in a fall in share prices in line with economic theory but, rather, contributed to ensuring the financial stability of the European insurance sector, supporting the real economy and consequently allowing quicker economic recovery.
{"title":"The impact of regulator's statement requesting EU insurers to suspend dividend distributions due to the COVID-19 pandemic on share prices","authors":"Enja Erker","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of the regulator S statement requesting EU insurers to suspend dividend distributions due to the COVID-19 pandemic on share prices of insurance companies. The purpose of the regulation was to maintain a high level of capitalisation of insurance companies, thus allowing them to pay compensation for any damage incurred during the crisis. The statistical significance of the potential negative impact was explored using event study methodology. The empirical results suggest that the negative impact following the statementS release is not statistically significant over the chosen event window. The robustness of the results is confirmed by several statistical tests - parametric and nonparametric. The measure did not result in a fall in share prices in line with economic theory but, rather, contributed to ensuring the financial stability of the European insurance sector, supporting the real economy and consequently allowing quicker economic recovery.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48298990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lack of information on the adequacy of fiscal measures undertaken in the COVID19 crisis and its long-term adverse effects on economic growth and labor market outcomes has raised debates about the impact of fiscal austerity and fears of slower recovery from the ongoing economic downturn. This paper analyzes the short and long-term effects ofthe fiscal policy measures undertaken in the COVID19 crisis in the EU-27. For the short-term estimation, we use OkunS law. To examine the long-run effects, we use the concept of potential output using a production function approach. The findings from this paper are that in the short-term, fiscal measures were generally effective. In the long-term, the COVID-19 crisis would have had a negative and permanent effect on the potential GDP growth if the policymakers had undertaken no fiscal measures.
{"title":"The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures","authors":"Patrik Barišić, Tibor Kovač","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"Lack of information on the adequacy of fiscal measures undertaken in the COVID19 crisis and its long-term adverse effects on economic growth and labor market outcomes has raised debates about the impact of fiscal austerity and fears of slower recovery from the ongoing economic downturn. This paper analyzes the short and long-term effects ofthe fiscal policy measures undertaken in the COVID19 crisis in the EU-27. For the short-term estimation, we use OkunS law. To examine the long-run effects, we use the concept of potential output using a production function approach. The findings from this paper are that in the short-term, fiscal measures were generally effective. In the long-term, the COVID-19 crisis would have had a negative and permanent effect on the potential GDP growth if the policymakers had undertaken no fiscal measures.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42253859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach","authors":"Tihana Škrinjarić","doi":"10.3326/pse.46.1.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47463333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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