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The interplay of supply and demand shocks: measuring potential output in the COVID-19 pandemic 供需冲击的相互作用:衡量新冠肺炎大流行的潜在产出
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.4
Lovorka Grgurić, Ozana Nadoveza Jelić, Nina Pavić
The coronavirus triggered a record fall of GDP in Croatia, 8.1% in 2020, one of the largest declines in the EU. The large macroeconomic shock stemming from the pandemic has affected both supply and demand. On the one hand, government measures have imposed unprecedented supply-side restrictions. On the other hand, growing uncertainty affected domestic and foreign demand. Croatia was particularly affected by a plunge in international tourism demand. Such a major macroeconomic shock poses a challenge for estimating potential GDP, which is difficult to estimate even in stable economic conditions. When estimating potential GDP in the context of the corona crisis, the main issue is the breakdown of the shock into a permanent and a temporary part (supply and demand shock). In this paper, we try to give the most logical breakdown of Croatian data and describe possible methodological approaches to the estimation of potential GDP during the pandemic. © 2021. All Rights Reserved.
冠状病毒导致克罗地亚2020年GDP创纪录下降8.1%,是欧盟最大的降幅之一。疫情引发的大规模宏观经济冲击影响了供应和需求。一方面,政府的措施实施了前所未有的供应方限制。另一方面,日益增长的不确定性影响了国内外需求。克罗地亚尤其受到国际旅游需求暴跌的影响。这种重大的宏观经济冲击对估计潜在国内生产总值构成了挑战,即使在稳定的经济条件下也很难估计。在日冕危机背景下估计潜在GDP时,主要问题是将冲击分解为永久性和临时性部分(供需冲击)。在本文中,我们试图对克罗地亚的数据进行最合乎逻辑的细分,并描述在疫情期间估计潜在GDP的可能方法。©2021。保留所有权利。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal (un)sustainability of the Croatian healthcare system: additional impact of the COVID-19 crisis 克罗地亚医疗保健系统的财政(联合国)可持续性:新冠肺炎危机的额外影响
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.5
Hrvoje Šimović, Maja Mihelja Žaja, Marko Primorac
The main goal of this policy paper is to provide an overview of the basic problems that have impact on healthcare in Croatia and tend to make it unsustainable. The paper points out that the COVID-19 crisis has deepened and exacerbated the already existing problems of financing the health system. The analysis shows that Croatia swept under the rug systemic problems in financing healthcare and ultimately paid the price through frequent financial bailouts. Thus, in the period from 1994-2021, a total of HRK 23.9 billion was spent on bailing out the health service. On the other hand, the COVID-19 crisis can be seen as a chance to start solving the problem and implement certain reforms, both on the revenue and expenditure side of the health system. © 2021. All Rights Reserved.
本政策文件的主要目标是概述影响克罗地亚医疗保健并使其不可持续的基本问题。论文指出,新冠肺炎危机加深并加剧了卫生系统融资方面已经存在的问题。分析表明,克罗地亚掩盖了医疗保健融资方面的系统性问题,并最终通过频繁的金融救助付出了代价。因此,在1994-2021年期间,共花费239亿瑞典克朗用于救助医疗服务。另一方面,新冠肺炎危机可以被视为开始解决问题和实施某些改革的机会,包括在卫生系统的收入和支出方面。©2021。保留所有权利。
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引用次数: 4
Macro and micro effects of fiscal policy - experience from the COVID-19 pandemic: introduction to the thematic issue of Public Sector Economics 财政政策的宏观和微观效应——新冠肺炎疫情的经验——公共部门经济学专题介绍
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.1
Milan Deskar-Škrbić, D. Milutinovic
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引用次数: 0
Interactions between fiscal and monetary policies: a brief history of a long relationship 财政和货币政策之间的相互作用:一种长期关系的简史
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.2
D. Mihaljek
* The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland. The author thanks Frederic Boissay, Cheng Gong, Paul Wachtel and participants of the 27th Dubrovnik Economic Conference (July 2021) for helpful discussions, and Alberto Americo and Emese Kuruc for research assistance as well as two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions. ** Received: October 15, 2021 Accepted: October 31, 2021
*所表达的观点是作者的观点,不一定是瑞士巴塞尔国际清算银行的观点。作者感谢Frederic Boissay, Cheng Gong, Paul Wachtel和第27届杜布罗夫尼克经济会议(2021年7月)的参与者进行了有益的讨论,Alberto Americo和Emese Kuruc提供了研究协助,以及两位匿名审稿人提出了有益的意见和建议。**收稿日期:2021年10月15日收稿日期:2021年10月31日
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引用次数: 0
The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on income distribution under different protection schemes: the case of Spain 新冠肺炎危机对不同保护计划下收入分配的影响:以西班牙为例
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.6
Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea
I use household survey data to microsimulate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on income distribution in Spain. I estimate the cost of potential lockdowns under three different low-income public protection schemes. Results show that although the COVID-19 shock has reduced income for all deciles of the income distribution, the losses are not uniformly distributed. The worst economic effects of the pandemic are not on the poorest, but on individuals in the middle and wealthy groups of the ex-ante income distribution. Low-income benefits help to moderate income losses and to curb poverty and inequality at various levels. It might be necessary to raise taxes and to resort to expenditure reducing policies to maintain protection in the context of contraction and lower government revenues. © 2021. All Rights Reserved.
我使用家庭调查数据来微观模拟COVID-19危机对西班牙收入分配的影响。我估计了三种不同的低收入公共保护计划下潜在封锁的成本。结果表明,尽管新冠肺炎冲击降低了收入分配中所有十分位数的收入,但损失的分布并不均匀。大流行最严重的经济影响不是发生在最贫穷的人身上,而是发生在事前收入分配中中等和富裕群体的个人身上。低收入福利有助于缓和收入损失,并在各个层面遏制贫困和不平等。在经济收缩和政府收入下降的背景下,可能有必要提高税收和采取削减支出的政策来维持保护。©2021。版权所有。
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引用次数: 4
Characteristics of fiscal policy in Croatia: does it depend on the phase of the business cycle? 克罗地亚财政政策的特点:它取决于商业周期的阶段吗?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.3
Vladimir Arčabić, Frane Banić
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引用次数: 1
Asymmetric effect of government debt on GDP growth: evidence from Namibia 政府债务对GDP增长的不对称影响:来自纳米比亚的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.4.7
T. Mosikari, J. Eita
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引用次数: 2
Assessing the impact of excise duties on a state’s revenues: the case of Greece 评估消费税对国家收入的影响:以希腊为例
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.3.4
C. Papageorgiou, Panagiotis Farlekas, Zacharias Dermatis, A. Anastasiou, P. Liargovas
The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of excise duties on tobacco products on state’s revenues. Increasing excise duties on tobacco may act as a means to reduce the consumption of this product and thus to have a positive effect on citizens’ health and prosperity. Our research showed that an increase in consumer income will result in a certain increase in cigarette consumption and an analogous decrease in fine-cut tobacco consumption, while a similar increase in cigarette price results in a small decrease in cigarette consumption and a very large increase in fine-cut tobacco consumption. Additionally, stepping up an anti-smoking campaign results in a decrease in cigarette consumption. Specifically for Greece we found that during 2019 and 2020 there will be a decrease in the state’s revenues from excise duties on tobacco products of €150-€200 million each year.
本研究的目的是评估烟草产品消费税对国家财政收入的影响。提高烟草消费税可以作为减少这种产品消费的一种手段,从而对公民的健康和繁荣产生积极影响。我们的研究表明,消费者收入的增加会导致卷烟消费的一定增加,细切烟草消费的类似减少,而卷烟价格的类似增加会导致卷烟消费的小幅减少,细切烟草消费的大幅增加。此外,加强反吸烟运动导致香烟消费量减少。具体到希腊,我们发现,在2019年和2020年期间,国家每年对烟草产品征收的消费税收入将减少 1.5亿至 2亿欧元。
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引用次数: 1
Inheritance tax regimes: a comparison 遗产税制度:比较
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.3.3
Stefan Jestl
This paper provides an overview of different inheritance tax regimes in selected European countries and the United States. We identify that in the majority of countries the tax rate is related to the relationship between bequeathing party and the bequeathed as well as the value of the inherited assets. In most countries the transfer of wealth within families is treated preferentially (lower tax rates, tax exemptions and reliefs). This is particularly the case for business assets and family homes. This analysis further discusses the features and effects of inheritance tax regimes based on various criteria. These cover behavioural responses of individuals and different distributional effects of an inheritance tax. Furthermore, the amount of tax revenues varies considerably both between countries and over time. Although the actual revenues of inheritance taxation are quite low in the selected countries (ranging between 0.1% and 0.5% of GDP), some indicators point to higher revenue potentials in the future. Due to an increase in private wealth and its concentration over time, we can expect to observe an increase in inheritance tax revenues, even though countries allow a high tax-free allowance. An appropriate design of inheritance taxation could further help to foster economic growth and decelerate the increase in wealth inequality.
本文概述了选定的欧洲国家和美国的不同遗产税制度。我们发现,在大多数国家,税率与遗赠方和遗赠人之间的关系以及继承资产的价值有关。在大多数国家,家庭内部的财富转移受到优先对待(较低的税率、免税和减免)。商业资产和家庭住宅尤其如此。本分析进一步讨论了基于各种标准的遗产税制度的特点和效果。其中包括个人的行为反应和遗产税的不同分配效应。此外,不同国家和不同时期的税收数额差异很大。尽管选定国家的遗产税实际收入相当低(占国内生产总值的0.1%至0.5%),但一些指标表明,未来的收入潜力更大。由于私人财富的增加及其随着时间的推移而集中,我们可以预期遗产税收入会增加,尽管各国允许高额免税额。遗产税的适当设计可以进一步有助于促进经济增长,减缓财富不平等的加剧。
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引用次数: 1
Public value and public services in the post-virus economy 后病毒经济中的公共价值与公共服务
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.3326/pse.45.3.2
T. Kinder, J. Stenvall
This article explores public value and public management through the lens of economic factors - an unusual stance since public management research mostly features the economy as background rather than foreground. Responding to calls for deeper investigations into public value, it argues that public value is not confined to the formal public sector and should also include use-values created and distributed by households, the third-sector and informal associations. Arguing that economic context is paid insufficient attention in public management research, the paper shows how alternative models are possible based on social reproduction, Regulation Theory, and Modern Monetary Theory as an alternative to traditional Keynesianism - favouring a balanced economy above balanced budget. © 2021. All Rights Reserved.
这篇文章通过经济因素的视角来探讨公共价值和公共管理——这是一个不同寻常的立场,因为公共管理研究大多以经济为背景而不是前景。为了回应对公共价值进行更深入调查的呼吁,它认为公共价值不局限于正式的公共部门,还应包括家庭、第三部门和非正式协会创造和分配的使用价值。本文认为经济背景在公共管理研究中没有得到足够的重视,并展示了基于社会再生产、调节理论和现代货币理论作为传统凯恩斯主义的替代方案的替代模型是如何可能的——在平衡预算之上,更倾向于平衡经济。©2021。版权所有。
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引用次数: 1
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Public Sector Economics
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