{"title":"Is external debt an impediment to the South African economy?","authors":"Sanele Stungwa","doi":"10.3326/pse.48.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.48.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"AN","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140088384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents an analytical overview of the effects of inflation on govern - ment revenues, expenditure and fiscal positions. Evidence for a range of countries from the current inflation episode and that of the 1980s is compared and con - trasted. The key finding is that high inflation initially boosts tax revenues and improves fiscal positions, but expenditure quickly catches up and offsets this improvement. The short-term boost is partly due to structural changes that have made modern tax systems more elastic with respect to inflation. The medium-turn deterioration reflects a shift toward spending items more responsive to inflation. The key risk is that the impression of abundant tax revenues will lead to spending programmes or tax cuts that damage public finances in the long term. As research on inflation and public finances has been dormant since the 1980s, this analysis fills a gap in our understanding of the fiscal consequences of inflation.
{"title":"Inflation and public finances: an overview","authors":"Dubravko Mihaeljek","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an analytical overview of the effects of inflation on govern - ment revenues, expenditure and fiscal positions. Evidence for a range of countries from the current inflation episode and that of the 1980s is compared and con - trasted. The key finding is that high inflation initially boosts tax revenues and improves fiscal positions, but expenditure quickly catches up and offsets this improvement. The short-term boost is partly due to structural changes that have made modern tax systems more elastic with respect to inflation. The medium-turn deterioration reflects a shift toward spending items more responsive to inflation. The key risk is that the impression of abundant tax revenues will lead to spending programmes or tax cuts that damage public finances in the long term. As research on inflation and public finances has been dormant since the 1980s, this analysis fills a gap in our understanding of the fiscal consequences of inflation.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139007040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emerging European economies after the pandemic: stuck in the middle income trap?","authors":"Nora Mustac","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139008650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unexpected inflation and public pensions: the case of Hungary","authors":"A. Simonovits","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.6","url":null,"abstract":"AND","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139009340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses the short-and medium-term effects of high inflation on fiscal developments in Croatia. The main analytical novelty is to add inflation shocks to the fiscal reaction function, an approach that was not considered in macro-fiscal research during the long period of moderate inflation. Our results suggest that inflation has a favourable effect on the primary balance in the short term, which can be explained by the positive effect of inflation on nominal tax revenues and an initial lagged adjustment of public expenditure to inflation. In the medium term, however, inflation is likely to have a negative effect on the primary balance by raising government expenditure more than tax revenues.
{"title":"Short- and medium-term fiscal positions in a high-inflation environment: the case of Croatia","authors":"Frane Banić, Dominik Ivan Pripuzic, Pave Rebić","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.4","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the short-and medium-term effects of high inflation on fiscal developments in Croatia. The main analytical novelty is to add inflation shocks to the fiscal reaction function, an approach that was not considered in macro-fiscal research during the long period of moderate inflation. Our results suggest that inflation has a favourable effect on the primary balance in the short term, which can be explained by the positive effect of inflation on nominal tax revenues and an initial lagged adjustment of public expenditure to inflation. In the medium term, however, inflation is likely to have a negative effect on the primary balance by raising government expenditure more than tax revenues.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139006545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills fore - cast (including the effects of COVID-19), population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets in the EU till 2030, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. We make use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends under a no-policy-change assumption. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on gov - ernment budgets, however, we also show that the current tax-benefit systems have the capacity to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments.
{"title":"The future of taxation in changing labour markets","authors":"Michael Christl, Ilias Livanos, Andrea Papini","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.7","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills fore - cast (including the effects of COVID-19), population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets in the EU till 2030, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. We make use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends under a no-policy-change assumption. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on gov - ernment budgets, however, we also show that the current tax-benefit systems have the capacity to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139006807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inflation and public finances in the 2020s: editor’s introduction to the thematic issue of Public Sector Economics","authors":"Dubravko Mihaeljek","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139010002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the dynamic effects of changes in three different govern - ment spending components – public sector wages and purchase of goods and ser - vices, energy and other subsidies, and transfers to households – on inflation and private consumption in Indonesia from 2001:Q1 to 2022:Q4, using a non-recur - sive structural VAR model. The model consists of eight endogenous variables: exchange rate, output gap, tax ratio, government spending, inflation, debt ratio, interest rate, and private consumption. Structural decompositions reveal that inflation responses differ across the three government spending components. Shocks to government subsidies are more likely to lead to higher inflation than shocks to other components. But even spending on subsidies does not always have a statistically significant effect on inflation. Surprisingly, government spending shocks – aggregate or by components – do not seem to have a statistically signifi - cant impact on private consumption. The main effect of fiscal expansions may thus be a deterioration in public finances.
本文采用非递归结构 VAR 模型，研究了 2001:Q1 至 2022:Q4 印度尼西亚三个不同政府支出部分（公共部门工资和商品及服务采购、能源和其他补贴以及对家庭的转移支付）的变化对通货膨胀和私人消费的动态影响。该模型由八个内生变量组成：汇率、产出缺口、税收比率、政府支出、通货膨胀、债务比率、利率和私人消费。结构分解显示，政府支出的三个组成部分对通货膨胀的反应各不相同。对政府补贴的冲击比对其他部分的冲击更有可能导致更高的通货膨胀。但是，即使是补贴支出，在统计上也并不总是对通货膨胀产生显著影响。令人惊讶的是，政府支出的冲击--无论是总体冲击还是各组成部分的冲击--似乎都不会对私人消费产生统计意义上的显著影响。因此，财政扩张的主要影响可能是公共财政的恶化。
{"title":"A nexus between fiscal policy and inflation: a case study of Indonesia using SVAR model","authors":"Julie-Ann Basconcillo","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.4.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.5","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the dynamic effects of changes in three different govern - ment spending components – public sector wages and purchase of goods and ser - vices, energy and other subsidies, and transfers to households – on inflation and private consumption in Indonesia from 2001:Q1 to 2022:Q4, using a non-recur - sive structural VAR model. The model consists of eight endogenous variables: exchange rate, output gap, tax ratio, government spending, inflation, debt ratio, interest rate, and private consumption. Structural decompositions reveal that inflation responses differ across the three government spending components. Shocks to government subsidies are more likely to lead to higher inflation than shocks to other components. But even spending on subsidies does not always have a statistically significant effect on inflation. Surprisingly, government spending shocks – aggregate or by components – do not seem to have a statistically signifi - cant impact on private consumption. The main effect of fiscal expansions may thus be a deterioration in public finances.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139008554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central government aims to stimulate the efficiency and technical change of pub - lic organizations. However, government primarily focuses on the institutions that deliver final public services, but not on the policy making institutions. This article analyses the productivity of central government departments (CGDs). From bureaucratic theory we hypothesize that productivity of these CGDs are low. In order to measure efficiency and technical change we estimate an average cost function based on data of Dutch individual CGDs during the period 2012-2019. The dataset consists of data on various services provided, resource usage and efficiency determinants. The cost function is estimated by a mixed-effect non-lin - ear least squares method. The outcomes show that there are large efficiency differ - ences among CGDs. It is also striking that technical change of the CGDs is non-existent over time, probably due to a lack of innovative behaviour, unwieldy bureaucracies and increasingly complex paperwork.
{"title":"Productivity and efficiency of central government departments: a mixed-effect model applied to Dutch data in the period 2012-2019","authors":"Jos L. T. Blank, Alex A. S. van Heezik, B. Blank","doi":"10.3326/pse.47.3.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.3.2","url":null,"abstract":"Central government aims to stimulate the efficiency and technical change of pub - lic organizations. However, government primarily focuses on the institutions that deliver final public services, but not on the policy making institutions. This article analyses the productivity of central government departments (CGDs). From bureaucratic theory we hypothesize that productivity of these CGDs are low. In order to measure efficiency and technical change we estimate an average cost function based on data of Dutch individual CGDs during the period 2012-2019. The dataset consists of data on various services provided, resource usage and efficiency determinants. The cost function is estimated by a mixed-effect non-lin - ear least squares method. The outcomes show that there are large efficiency differ - ences among CGDs. It is also striking that technical change of the CGDs is non-existent over time, probably due to a lack of innovative behaviour, unwieldy bureaucracies and increasingly complex paperwork.","PeriodicalId":37447,"journal":{"name":"Public Sector Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42663659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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