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The Effect of Biased Peacekeepers on Building Trust 有偏见的维和人员对建立信任的影响
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2023.12
Jared Oestman, Rick K. Wilson
Do unbiased third-party peacekeepers build trust between groups in the aftermath of conflict? Theoretically, we point out that unbiased peacekeepers are the most effective at promoting trust. To isolate the causal effect of bias on trust, we use an iterated trust game in a laboratory setting. Groups that previously engaged in conflict are put into a setting in which they choose to trust or reciprocate any trust. Our findings suggest that biased monitors impede trust while unbiased monitors promote cooperative exchanges over time. The findings contribute to the peacekeeping literature by highlighting impartiality as an important condition under which peacekeepers build trust post-conflict.
没有偏见的第三方维和人员是否在冲突后建立了团体之间的信任?从理论上讲,我们指出,不偏不倚的维和人员在促进信任方面最为有效。为了分离偏见对信任的因果影响,我们在实验室环境中使用了迭代信任博弈。以前参与冲突的群体被置于一个他们选择信任或回报任何信任的环境中。我们的研究结果表明,随着时间的推移,有偏见的监督员会阻碍信任,而无偏见的监督员则会促进合作交流。调查结果突出了公正性是维和人员在冲突后建立信任的一个重要条件,从而为维和文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
An Experimental Test of the Effects of Fear in a Coordination Game 协调博弈中恐惧效应的实验检验
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2023.10
A. Aldama, Deshawn Sambrano, Mateo Vásquez-Cortés, Lauren E. Young
Abstract Cognitive appraisal theory predicts that emotions affect participation decisions around risky collective action. However, little existing research has attempted to parse out the mechanisms by which this process occurs. We build a global game of regime change and discuss the effects that fear may have on participation through pessimism about the state of the world, other players’ willingness to participate, and risk aversion. We test the behavioral effects of fear in this game by conducting 32 sessions of an experiment in two labs where participants are randomly assigned to an emotion induction procedure. In some rounds of the game, potential mechanisms are shut down to identify their contribution to the overall effect of fear. Our results show that in this context, fear does not affect willingness to participate. This finding highlights the importance of context, including integral versus incidental emotions and the size of the stakes, in shaping effect of emotions on behavior.
摘要认知评价理论预测情绪会影响高风险集体行动的参与决策。然而,很少有现有的研究试图解析出这一过程发生的机制。我们构建了一个关于政权更迭的全球游戏,并讨论了通过对世界状况的悲观情绪、其他参与者的参与意愿和风险厌恶情绪,恐惧可能对参与产生的影响。我们通过在两个实验室进行32次实验来测试恐惧在这个游戏中的行为影响,参与者被随机分配到一个情绪诱导程序中。在游戏的某些回合中,潜在的机制被关闭,以确定它们对恐惧的整体影响的贡献。我们的研究结果表明,在这种情况下,恐惧并不影响参与的意愿。这一发现强调了情境的重要性,包括整体情绪与附带情绪以及利害关系的大小,在塑造情绪对行为的影响方面。
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引用次数: 0
The Corrections Dilemma: Media Retractions Increase Belief Accuracy But Decrease Trust 矫正困境:媒体退缩提高了信仰准确性但降低了信任
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2023.4
Joshua Freitag, Madeline Gochee, Mitchell Ransden, B. Nyhan, Kristy Roschke, D. Gillmor
Why are prominent news media retractions so rare? Using data from a survey experiment in which respondents view simulated Twitter newsfeeds, we demonstrate the dilemma facing news organizations that have published false information. Encouragingly, media retractions are effective at informing the public – they increase the accuracy of news consumers’ beliefs about the retracted reporting more than information from third parties questioning the original reporting or even the combination of the two. However, trust in the news outlet declines after a retraction, though this effect is small both substantively and in standardized terms relative to the increase in belief accuracy. This reputational damage persists even if the outlet issues a retraction before a third party questions the story. In a social media environment that frequently subjects reporting to intense scrutiny, the journalistic mission of news organizations to inform the public will increasingly conflict with organizational incentives to avoid admitting error.
为什么知名新闻媒体极少撤回报道?利用调查实验中的数据,受访者查看模拟Twitter新闻源,我们展示了发布虚假信息的新闻机构面临的困境。令人鼓舞的是,媒体撤稿在告知公众方面是有效的——它们比第三方质疑原始报道甚至两者结合的信息更能提高新闻消费者对撤稿报道的看法的准确性。然而,在撤稿后,人们对新闻媒体的信任会下降,尽管这种影响在实质上和标准化方面相对于信念准确性的提高都很小。即使在第三方质疑这篇报道之前,该媒体发表了撤回声明,这种声誉损害也会持续下去。在一个经常使报道受到严格审查的社交媒体环境中,新闻机构告知公众的新闻使命将越来越多地与避免承认错误的组织动机相冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Does Stereotype Threat Contribute to the Political Knowledge Gender Gap? A Preregistered Replication Study of Ihme and Tausendpfund (2018) 刻板印象威胁是否导致政治知识的性别差距?Ihme和Tausendpfund的预注册复制研究(2018)
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2022.35
Flávio Azevedo, L. Micheli, D. Bolesta
The gender gap in political knowledge is a well-established finding in Political Science. One explanation for gender differences in political knowledge is the activation of negative stereotypes about women. As part of the Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) program, we conducted a two-stage preregistered and high-powered direct replication of Study 2 of Ihme and Tausendpfund (2018). While we successfully replicated the gender gap in political knowledge – such that male participants performed better than female participants – both the first (N = 671) and second stage (N = 831) of the replication of the stereotype activation effect were unsuccessful. Taken together (pooled N = 1,502), results indicate evidence of absence of the effect of stereotype activation on gender differences in political knowledge. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and put forward evidence that the gender gap in political knowledge might be an artifact of how knowledge is measured.
政治知识中的性别差异是政治学中一个公认的发现。对政治知识中性别差异的一种解释是对女性的负面刻板印象的激活。作为开放研究和证据的系统化信心(SCORE)计划的一部分,我们对Ihme和Tausendpfund(2018)的研究2进行了两阶段的预注册和高强度的直接复制。虽然我们成功地复制了政治知识上的性别差异——男性参与者比女性参与者表现得更好——但刻板印象激活效应的第一阶段(N = 671)和第二阶段(N = 831)的复制都是不成功的。综上所述(汇总N = 1,502),结果表明刻板印象激活对政治知识的性别差异没有影响。我们讨论了这些发现的潜在解释,并提出证据表明政治知识中的性别差距可能是知识测量方式的产物。
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引用次数: 2
The “Commitment Trap” Revisited: Experimental Evidence on Ambiguous Nuclear Threats “承诺陷阱”再访:关于暧昧核威胁的实验证据
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2023.8
Michal Smetana, M. Vranka, Ondřej Rosendorf
In this paper, we provide an empirical test for the theoretical claim that ambiguous nuclear threats create a “commitment trap” for American leaders: when deterrence fails, supposedly they are more likely to order the use of nuclear weapons to avoid domestic audience costs for backing down. We designed an original survey experiment and fielded it to a sample of 1,000 U.S. citizens. We found no evidence of a commitment trap when ambiguous nuclear threats are made. Unlike explicit threats, ambiguous ones did not generate domestic disapproval when the leader backed down; the decision to employ nuclear weapons led to more public backlash for the leader than being caught bluffing; and the threats did not influence public preference for nuclear use across our scenarios. Our findings contribute to the scholarly literature on nuclear crisis bargaining and policy debates over the future of US declaratory policy.
在这篇论文中,我们为模糊的核威胁为美国领导人制造了一个“承诺陷阱”的理论主张提供了一个实证检验:当威慑失败时,他们更有可能下令使用核武器,以避免国内观众因让步而付出代价。我们设计了一个原始的调查实验,并将其应用于1000名美国公民的样本中。当做出模棱两可的核威胁时,我们没有发现任何承诺陷阱的证据。与明确的威胁不同,当领导人让步时,模棱两可的威胁并没有引起国内的反对;使用核武器的决定导致公众对这位领导人的强烈反对,而不是被抓到虚张声势;而且这些威胁并没有影响公众对我们所有场景中使用核武器的偏好。我们的研究结果为有关核危机谈判的学术文献和关于美国宣示政策未来的政策辩论做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Ranking Candidates in Local Elections: Neither Panacea nor Catastrophe for Candidates of Color 地方选举中的候选人排名:对有色人种候选人来说既不是万灵药也不是灾难
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2023.6
Melody Crowder-Meyer, Shana Kushner Gadarian, Jessica Trounstine
Abstract Electoral rules can affect who wins and who loses elections. Most cities select office holders through plurality rule, but an alternative, ranked-choice voting (RCV), has become increasingly popular. RCV requires voters to rank candidates, instead of simply selecting their most preferred candidate. Observers debate whether RCV will cure a variety of electoral ills or undermine representation. We test the effect of RCV on voter’s choices and perceptions of representation using survey experiments with large, representative samples of respondents. We find that candidates of color are significantly penalized in both plurality and RCV elections, with no significant difference between the rule types. However, providing respondents with candidates’ partisan affiliation significantly increases support for candidates of color.
选举规则会影响选举的胜负。大多数城市通过多数原则选举公职人员,但另一种选择,即排名选择投票(RCV)已经越来越受欢迎。RCV要求选民对候选人进行排名,而不是简单地选择他们最喜欢的候选人。观察人士争论RCV是否会治愈各种选举弊病或削弱代表性。我们测试了RCV对选民的选择和代表性感知的影响,使用了大量代表性样本的调查实验。我们发现有色人种候选人在多数票和RCV选举中都受到了明显的惩罚,在规则类型之间没有显著差异。然而,向受访者提供候选人的党派关系显著增加了对有色人种候选人的支持。
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引用次数: 2
Corruption and Political Support: The Case of Peru’s Vacuna-gate Scandal 腐败与政治支持:以秘鲁瓦库纳门丑闻为例
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2023.7
Oscar Castorena, Noam Lupu, Adam D. Wolsky, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
Classic theories of public opinion suggest that negative shocks can undermine system support in weak democracies, but scant work has systematically assessed this thesis. We identify Peru’s explosive Vacuna-gate scandal as a most-likely case for finding a connection between corruption and political support. The scandal’s unexpected revelation in the middle of the 2021 AmericasBarometer Peru survey created conditions for a natural experiment. Applying an unexpected-event-during-survey design, we consider the consequences of the scandal for perceptions of corruption, system support, and support for democracy. We find robust evidence that the scandal increased even already high perceptions of corruption and lowered system support. Contrary to expectations derived from prior theories, we find no effect on explicit support for democracy. In the conclusion, we discuss the nuanced ways that scandal may shape democratic stability.
经典的舆论理论表明,负面冲击会破坏薄弱民主国家的制度支持,但很少有研究对这一论点进行系统评估。我们认为,秘鲁爆发的瓦库纳门丑闻是最有可能在腐败和政治支持之间找到联系的案例。这起丑闻在2021年美国晴雨表秘鲁调查中期意外曝光,为自然实验创造了条件。在调查设计中应用一个意外事件,我们考虑丑闻对腐败、制度支持和民主支持的影响。我们发现强有力的证据表明,这起丑闻甚至增加了人们对腐败的高度认知,降低了系统支持。与先前理论的预期相反,我们发现对明确支持民主没有任何影响。在结论中,我们讨论了丑闻可能影响民主稳定的微妙方式。
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引用次数: 0
Welcome from the Editors 欢迎来自编辑
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2023.5
Jennifer Jerit, Scott Clifford
We are excited to take the helm at JEPS and honored to follow previous editorial teams, who collectively have established JEPS as the journal of record for experimental research in political science. We are especially grateful to Kevin (Vin) Arceneaux who served as editor for 5 years. Under Vin’s leadership, the journal introduced new article formats and adopted a “strong” associate editor model. These policies have elevated the quality of the research that ultimately appears in the journal, and we plan to continue them. Before describing journal policies in more detail, we would like to introduce the team of Associate Editors who will serve with us. They are Bert Bakker (Senior Associate Editor), Claire Adida, Matthew Hayes, Holger Kern, Jonathan Renshon, John Barry Ryan, Beth Simas, and Gijs Schumacher. This is an impressive group of scholars whose expertise in different areas of experimental research will help ensure the methodological diversity of the journal. Consistent with the previous editorship, Associate Editors will have complete autonomy over manuscripts that have been assigned to them. The two Editors will share the task of reviewing with the Associate Editors, taking on submissions that are relevant to their expertise. The Senior Associate Editor will serve as Acting Editor when a submission presents a conflict of interest for either Editor. Since JEPS was founded in 2014, experiments have “evolved from an emergent method to an accepted method to a primary method” (Druckman and Green 2021, p. 1). This evolution reflects the distinctive advantages of experimentation when it comes to identifying causal effects. There’s no denying that it also is easier to conduct experiments today than it was two decades ago (e.g., in terms of data availability and technological advances). Yet, the ease of conducting experiments belies the challenges of using this method effectively. A high-quality experiment must provide: (1) a theoretical and/or empirical contribution, (2) appropriate comparisons in a well-powered design, and (3) statistical analyses that are informative and transparent. While JEPS takes a broad view of what counts as an experiment, authors must articulate how their design identifies the causal effect that they are studying. To preserve an already overburdened reviewer pool, submissions that do not meet the above criteria will be desk-rejected. Past practice at the journal has demonstrated that desk rejects can be used in a fair manner, and we strive to do the same.
我们很高兴能执掌《政治学实验研究》,也很荣幸能追随之前的编辑团队,他们共同将《政治学研究》确立为政治学实验性研究的记录期刊。我们特别感谢Kevin(Vin)Arceneaux,他担任了5年的编辑。在Vin的领导下,该杂志引入了新的文章格式,并采用了“强大”的副主编模式。这些政策提高了最终发表在杂志上的研究的质量,我们计划继续这样做。在更详细地描述期刊政策之前,我们想介绍一下将与我们一起服务的副主编团队。他们是Bert Bakker(高级副主编)、Claire Adida、Matthew Hayes、Holger Kern、Jonathan Renshon、John Barry Ryan、Beth Simas和Gijs Schumacher。这是一个令人印象深刻的学者群体,他们在不同实验研究领域的专业知识将有助于确保期刊方法的多样性。与之前的编辑职位一致,副编辑将对分配给他们的稿件拥有完全的自主权。两位编辑将与副编辑分担审查任务,接受与其专业知识相关的投稿。当提交的稿件与任何一位编辑存在利益冲突时,高级副编辑将担任代理编辑。自2014年JEPS成立以来,实验已经“从一种新兴方法演变为一种可接受的方法,再演变为初级方法”(Druckman和Green 2021,第1页)。这种演变反映了实验在识别因果效应方面的独特优势。不可否认,今天进行实验也比20年前更容易(例如,在数据可用性和技术进步方面)。然而,进行实验的容易性掩盖了有效使用这种方法的挑战。高质量的实验必须提供:(1)理论和/或经验贡献,(2)在强大的设计中进行适当的比较,以及(3)信息丰富且透明的统计分析。虽然JEPS对什么是实验有着广泛的看法,但作者必须阐明他们的设计是如何识别他们正在研究的因果效应的。为了保留已经不堪重负的审查人员库,不符合上述标准的提交将被桌面拒绝。该杂志过去的实践表明,桌面拒绝可以以公平的方式使用,我们也努力做到这一点。
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引用次数: 0
Do Survey Questions Spread Conspiracy Beliefs? 调查问题会传播阴谋论吗?
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2023.1
Scott Clifford, Brian W. Sullivan
Abstract Conspiracy theories and misinformation have become increasingly prominent in politics, and these beliefs have pernicious effects on political behavior. A prominent line of research suggests that these beliefs are promoted by repeated exposure. Yet, as scholars have rushed to understand these beliefs, they have exposed countless respondents to conspiratorial claims, raising the question of whether researchers are contributing to their spread. We investigate this possibility using a pre-registered within-subjects experiment embedded in a panel survey. The results suggest that exposure to a standard conspiracy question causes a significant increase in the likelihood of endorsing that conspiracy a week later. However, this exposure effect does not occur with a question format that offers an alternative, non-conspiratorial explanation for the target event. Thus, we recommend that researchers reduce the likelihood of spreading conspiracy beliefs by adopting a question format that asks respondents to choose between alternative explanations for an event.
阴谋论和错误信息在政治中越来越突出,这些信念对政治行为产生了有害影响。一项突出的研究表明,这些信念是通过反复暴露来促进的。然而,随着学者们急于理解这些信念,他们让无数受访者暴露在阴谋论中,这引发了一个问题,即研究人员是否在助长这些信念的传播。我们使用嵌入小组调查中的预注册受试者内部实验来研究这种可能性。研究结果表明,暴露在标准的阴谋问题中,一周后支持该阴谋的可能性显著增加。然而,这种暴露效应不会发生在为目标事件提供替代性、非阴谋性解释的问题格式中。因此,我们建议研究人员采用问题形式,要求受访者在事件的替代解释之间做出选择,以降低传播阴谋信念的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
Using Citizen Voice to Evaluate Experiments on Politicians: A UK Survey Experiment 利用公民声音评价政客实验——英国调查实验
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/xps.2023.3
P. John, Kristina Kim, Luis Soto-Tamayo
Experiments on the responsiveness of elected officials highlight the tension between the freedom to carry out research and the right of subjects to be treated with respect. Controversy emerges from the power of politicians to block or object to experimental designs using identity deception. One way to resolve this conundrum is to consult citizens who, as constituents of politicians, have an interest in promoting the accountability of elected representatives. Building on the work of Desposato and Naurin and Öhberg, this survey experiment presented research designs to UK citizens for their evaluation. The findings show that citizens strongly approve of experimental research on Members of Parliament (MPs) and are glad to see their representatives participate. There are no differences in support whether designs use identity deception, debriefing, confederates or pre-agreement from MPs. Linked to high interest in politics, more citizens are glad their MPs participate in studies using identity deception than those deploying confederates.
关于民选官员反应能力的实验突显了开展研究的自由与受试者受到尊重的权利之间的紧张关系。争论源于政客阻止或反对使用身份欺骗的实验设计的权力。解决这一难题的一种方法是咨询公民,他们作为政治家的选民,有兴趣促进民选代表的问责制。在Desposato、Naurin和Öhberg工作的基础上,这项调查实验向英国公民提供了研究设计,供他们评估。调查结果表明,公民强烈赞成对国会议员的实验研究,并很高兴看到他们的代表参与其中。无论设计是使用身份欺骗、汇报、联盟还是国会议员的预先同意,支持率都没有差异。与对政治的高度兴趣有关,与部署邦联的议员相比,更多的公民很高兴他们的议员参与使用身份欺骗的研究。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Experimental Political Science
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