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The effect of incentives on motivated numeracy amidst COVID-19 COVID-19期间激励措施对动机性计算能力的影响
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.32
E. Chung, P. Govindan, Anna O. Pechenkina
Abstract How does political ideology affect the processing of information incongruent with one’s worldview? The disagreement in prior research about this question lies in how one’s ideology interacts with cognitive ability to shape motivated numeracy or the tendency to misinterpret data to confirm one’s prior beliefs. Our study conceptually replicates and extends previous research on motivated numeracy by testing whether monetary incentives for accuracy lessen motivated reasoning when high- and low-numeracy partisans interpret data about mask mandates and COVID-19 cases. This research leverages the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, as Americans are polarized along party lines regarding an appropriate government response to the pandemic.
政治意识形态如何影响与世界观不一致的信息加工?关于这个问题的先前研究的分歧在于,一个人的意识形态如何与认知能力相互作用,从而形成动机性的计算能力,或者是误解数据以确认自己先前的信念的倾向。我们的研究在概念上复制并扩展了之前关于动机性计算的研究,通过测试当高和低计算能力的党派解释有关口罩要求和COVID-19病例的数据时,准确性的金钱激励是否会减少动机性推理。这项研究利用了正在进行的COVID-19危机,因为美国人在政府应对大流行的适当措施方面存在党派分歧。
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引用次数: 1
The Big Lie: Expressive Responding and Misperceptions in the United States 大谎言:美国的表达性回应和误解
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.33
James J. Fahey
Abstract Misinformation about events surrounding the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic pose an existential threat to American democracy and public health. Public opinion surveys reveal that high percentages of Republicans indicate that they endorse some aspects of mistaken beliefs surrounding election fraud in the 2020 election. Still, understanding how to measure the endorsement of misperceptions is critical for understanding the threat at hand. Are high levels of mistaken beliefs genuinely held, or are they partially a function of expressive responding? I address this question through a set of survey experiments encouraging accuracy-oriented processing among the general public. Using well-powered surveys of Republicans and Independents, I find that treatments designed to encourage more accurate responses are ineffective in reducing the endorsement of partisan electoral and public health misperceptions and can in some cases even backfire. These findings suggest that support for these misperceptions is genuinely held.
关于2020年大选和COVID-19大流行事件的错误信息对美国民主和公共卫生构成了生存威胁。民意调查显示,很高比例的共和党人表示,他们支持有关2020年选举舞弊的某些方面的错误看法。然而,了解如何衡量对误解的认可,对于了解手头的威胁至关重要。高水平的错误信念是真实存在的,还是部分是表达性反应的功能?我通过一系列调查实验来解决这个问题,鼓励公众进行以准确性为导向的处理。通过对共和党人和无党派人士的有力调查,我发现,旨在鼓励更准确回应的治疗方法在减少党派选举和公共卫生误解方面是无效的,在某些情况下甚至会适得其反。这些发现表明,对这些误解的支持是真实的。
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引用次数: 2
Basking in Their Glory? Expressive Partisanship among People of Color Before and After the 2020 US Election 沐浴在他们的荣耀中?2020年美国大选前后有色人种的党派之争
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.27
Rahsaan Maxwell, Efrén O. Pérez, Stephanie Zonszein
Abstract As the number of people of color (PoC) grows in the United States, a key question is how partisanship will develop among this important electoral group. Yet many open questions remain about PoC partisanship, due to limited availability of panel data, a lack of sensitive instrumentation, and small samples of PoC in most public opinion surveys. This brief report leverages a unique panel of African American (N = 650) and Latino (N = 650) eligible voters, before and after the 2020 Presidential Election between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. Using measures that tap expressive partisan, racial, and national identity attachments, we find that Biden’s electoral victory significantly intensified partisan identity among his Democratic PoC supporters, relative to PoC who were not Democrats and supported Trump. We do not find significant changes in racial or national identities. Our results advance research on PoC’s partisanship.
摘要随着美国有色人种人数的增长,一个关键问题是这个重要的选举群体之间的党派之争将如何发展。然而,由于小组数据的可用性有限,缺乏敏感的工具,以及大多数民意调查中的PoC样本较少,PoC党派之争仍然存在许多悬而未决的问题。这份简短的报告利用了民主党人乔·拜登和共和党人唐纳德·特朗普在2020年总统大选前后的一个由非裔美国人(N=650)和拉丁裔(N=650。通过利用表现出的党派、种族和国家身份依恋的措施,我们发现拜登的选举胜利显著强化了其民主党PoC支持者的党派身份,而PoC不是民主党人,支持特朗普。我们没有发现种族或民族身份的重大变化。我们的研究结果推进了对PoC党派之争的研究。
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引用次数: 0
How Dropping Subjects Who Failed Manipulation Checks Can Bias Your Results: An Illustrative Case 放弃操纵检查失败的受试者会对你的结果产生偏见:一个例证案例
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.28
Simon Varaine
Abstract Manipulations checks are postexperimental measures widely used to verify that subjects understood the treatment. Some researchers drop subjects who failed manipulation checks in order to limit the analyses to attentive subjects. This short report offers a novel illustration on how this practice may bias experimental results: in the present case, through confirming a hypothesis that is likely false. In a survey experiment, subjects were primed with a fictional news story depicting an economic decline versus prosperity. Subjects were then asked whether the news story depicted an economic decline or prosperity. Results indicate that responses to this manipulation check captured subjects’ preexisting beliefs about the economic situation. As a consequence, dropping subjects who failed the manipulation check mixes the effects of preexisting and induced beliefs, increasing the risk of false positive findings. Researchers should avoid dropping subjects based on posttreatment measures and rely on pretreatment measures of attentiveness.
摘要操作检查是一种广泛用于验证受试者理解治疗的实验后措施。一些研究人员放弃了未通过操作检查的受试者,以便将分析限制在专注的受试人身上。这份简短的报告提供了一个新的例子,说明这种做法可能会对实验结果产生偏见:在目前的情况下,通过证实一个可能是错误的假设。在一项调查实验中,受试者被一个虚构的新闻故事所引导,该故事描绘了经济衰退与繁荣的对比。然后,受试者被问及新闻报道是描述了经济衰退还是繁荣。结果表明,对这种操纵检查的反应捕捉到了受试者对经济状况先前存在的信念。因此,放弃未通过操纵检查的受试者会混合先前存在的和诱导的信念的影响,增加假阳性结果的风险。研究人员应避免根据治疗后的测量结果放弃受试者,并依赖于治疗前的注意力测量结果。
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引用次数: 1
Can Addressing Integrity Concerns about Mail Balloting Increase Turnout? Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment in the 2020 Presidential Election 解决邮件投票的诚信问题能否提高投票率?2020年总统选举的大规模实地实验结果
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.31
Daniel R. Biggers, Elizabeth Mitchell Elder, Seth J. Hill, Thad Kousser, Gabriel S. Lenz, Mackenzie Lockhart
Abstract The 2020 presidential election brought expanded vote-by-mail opportunities, a rise in attacks on this process’s integrity, and the implementation of novel programs such as California’s Where’s My Ballot? system to ensure confidence in mail balloting. Can heightening awareness of this ballot-tracking system and other election protections alleviate fraud concerns and raise turnout? We assess whether messages reinforcing election integrity increased participation in the 2020 election through a large-scale voter mobilization field experiment. California registrants were mailed a letter that described either existing safeguards to prevent vote-by-mail fraud or the ability to track one’s ballot and ensure that it was counted. Analysis of state voter records reveals that neither message increased turnout over a simple election reminder or even no contact, even among subgroups where larger effects might be expected. In the context of a high-profile, high-turnout presidential election, assurances about ballot and electoral integrity did not increase turnout.
摘要2020年的总统选举扩大了邮寄投票的机会,对这一过程完整性的攻击增加,并实施了加利福尼亚州的“我的选票在哪里?”?确保邮寄投票信心的系统。提高对这种选票跟踪系统和其他选举保护措施的认识能缓解人们对舞弊的担忧并提高投票率吗?我们通过大规模的选民动员实地实验,评估加强选举诚信的信息是否增加了对2020年选举的参与。加利福尼亚州的登记者收到了一封信,信中描述了防止邮寄投票欺诈的现有保障措施,或者跟踪选票并确保其被计算在内的能力。对州选民记录的分析显示,这两条信息都没有通过简单的选举提醒甚至没有联系来增加投票率,即使在可能产生更大影响的亚群体中也是如此。在高调、高投票率的总统选举背景下,对选票和选举完整性的保证并没有增加投票率。
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引用次数: 0
Ought It Audit? Information, Values, and Public Support for the Internal Revenue Service 它应该审计吗?美国国税局的信息、价值观和公众支持
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.26
Ian G. Anson, John V. Kane
Abstract In democracies, policy ambitions hinge upon governments’ ability to collect tax revenue from their citizens. Ongoing funding cuts at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) undermine the US government’s ability to fulfill this function. Yet, despite its central importance, funding for IRS enforcement activities has received scant scholarly attention, limiting our understanding of the factors that underlie public attitudes on this issue. In this article, we report the results of preregistered experiments that test whether citizens’ attitudes regarding the IRS can be shaped by framing efforts. Specifically, we test both information-based and value-consistent frames that invoke partisans’ core ideological concerns. Results show that these frames significantly increase public support for the IRS, as well as citizens’ willingness to learn more and become politically active. Thus, to ensure state capacity, information about the consequences of IRS underfunding and appeals to partisans’ ideological concerns can be implemented to increase support for tax collection.
在民主国家,政策野心取决于政府向公民征收税收的能力。美国国税局(IRS)持续的资金削减削弱了美国政府履行这一职能的能力。然而,尽管它具有核心重要性,但为国税局执法活动提供资金却很少受到学术关注,这限制了我们对公众对这一问题态度的潜在因素的理解。在本文中,我们报告了预注册实验的结果,这些实验测试了公民对国税局的态度是否可以通过框架努力来塑造。具体来说,我们测试了基于信息和价值一致的框架,这些框架唤起了党派的核心意识形态关注。结果表明,这些框架显著增加了公众对国税局的支持,以及公民学习更多知识和积极参与政治的意愿。因此,为了确保国家能力,可以实施有关国税局资金不足后果的信息,并呼吁党派意识形态关注,以增加对税收的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Childcare, Work, and Household Labor During a Pandemic: Evidence on Parents’ Preferences in the United States 流行病期间的育儿、工作和家务劳动:美国父母偏好的证据
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.24
Annabelle Hutchinson, Sarah Khan, Hilary Matfess
By exacerbating a pre-existing crisis of childcare in the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic forced many parents to renegotiate household arrangements. What shapes parents’ preferences over different arrangements? In an online conjoint experiment, we assess how childcare availability, work status and earnings, and the intra-household division of labor shape heterosexual American parents’ preferences over different situations. We find that while mothers and fathers equally value outside options for childcare, the lack of such options – a significant feature of the pandemic – does not significantly change their evaluations of other features of household arrangements. Parents’ preferences over employment, earnings, and how to divide up household labor exhibit gendered patterns, which persist regardless of childcare availability. By illustrating the micro-foundations of household decision-making under constraints, our findings help to make sense of women’s retrenchment from the labor market during the pandemic: a pattern which may have long-term economic and political consequences.
COVID-19大流行加剧了美国已有的儿童保育危机,迫使许多父母重新协商家庭安排。是什么影响了父母对不同安排的偏好?在一项在线联合实验中,我们评估了托儿服务的可获得性、工作状态和收入以及家庭内部劳动分工如何影响异性恋美国父母在不同情况下的偏好。我们发现,虽然母亲和父亲同样重视照料儿童的外部选择,但缺乏这种选择——这是大流行病的一个重要特征——并没有显著改变他们对家庭安排其他特征的评价。父母对就业、收入和如何分配家务劳动的偏好表现出性别模式,无论是否有儿童保育,这种模式都会持续存在。通过说明制约下家庭决策的微观基础,我们的研究结果有助于理解大流行期间妇女退出劳动力市场的情况:这种模式可能会产生长期的经济和政治后果。
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引用次数: 1
The Civic Option? Using Experiments to Estimate the Effects of Consuming Information in Local Elections 公民选择?利用实验估计地方选举中信息消费的效果
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-04 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.19
Cheryl Boudreau, Christopher S. Elmendorf, Scott A. Mackenzie
Abstract Political parties and civic organizations disseminate information to improve citizen decision making in local elections. Do citizens choose to consume such information and, if so, how does it affect their decisions? We conduct a survey experiment during a real-world local election that randomly assigns 1) political party endorsements, 2) a voter guide, 3) no information, or 4) a choice among these options. Respondents assigned to receive party endorsements and a voter guide are more likely than respondents receiving no information to choose candidates who share their policy views. When given a choice, a majority opts to receive information (including many with low levels of political interest), with most respondents preferring a voter guide. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that the effect of information on those who choose to receive it is substantial. These results offer hope that voter education efforts can succeed despite widespread political disinterest.
摘要政党和民间组织传播信息,以改善公民在地方选举中的决策。公民是否选择消费此类信息?如果是,这将如何影响他们的决策?我们在现实世界的地方选举中进行了一项调查实验,随机分配1)政党支持,2)选民指南,3)没有信息,或4)在这些选项中进行选择。被指派接受政党支持和选民指南的受访者比没有收到信息的受访者更有可能选择与他们政策观点相同的候选人。当有选择时,大多数人选择接收信息(包括许多政治兴趣较低的人),大多数受访者更喜欢选民指南。使用工具变量方法,我们表明信息对那些选择接受信息的人的影响是巨大的。这些结果为选民教育工作带来了希望,尽管人们普遍对政治不感兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Partisanship Unmasked? The Role of Politics and Social Norms in COVID-19 Mask-Wearing Behavior 党派之争揭露了吗?政治和社会规范在COVID-19口罩佩戴行为中的作用
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-20 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.20
John M. Carey, B. Nyhan, Joseph B. Phillips, Jason Reifler
Abstract Public health officials have faced resistance in their efforts to promote mask-wearing to counter the spread of COVID-19. One approach to promoting behavior change is to alert people to the fact that a behavior is common (a descriptive norm). However, partisan differences in pandemic mitigation behavior mean that Americans may be especially (in)sensitive to information about behavioral norms depending on the party affiliation of the group in question. In July–August 2020, we tested the effects of providing information to respondents about how many Americans, co-partisans, or out-partisans report wearing masks regularly on both mask-wearing intentions and on the perceived effectiveness of masks. Learning that a majority of Americans report wearing masks regularly increases mask-wearing intentions and perceived effectiveness, though the effects of this information are not distinguishable from other treatments.
公共卫生官员在推广戴口罩以应对COVID-19传播的努力中遇到了阻力。促进行为改变的一种方法是提醒人们行为是普遍的(描述性规范)。然而,大流行缓解行为的党派差异意味着美国人可能对有关行为规范的信息特别敏感,这取决于相关群体的党派关系。在2020年7月至8月期间,我们测试了向受访者提供有关有多少美国人、共同党派或党派外的人报告经常戴口罩的信息对戴口罩意图和口罩的感知有效性的影响。了解到大多数美国人报告经常戴口罩会增加戴口罩的意愿和感知效果,尽管这一信息的效果与其他治疗方法没有区别。
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引用次数: 1
Taking the Cloth: Social Norms and Elite Cues Increase Support for Masks among White Evangelical Americans 披荆斩棘:社会规范和精英暗示增加了美国白人福音派对口罩的支持
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-12 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2022.22
Claire L. Adida, Christina Cottiero, L. Falabella, Isabel Gotti, ShahBano Ijaz, G. Phillips, Michael F. Seese
Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the CDC and the WHO have recommended face masks as key to reducing viral transmission. Yet, in the USA, as the first wave erupted in the Summer of 2020, one-fifth of individuals said they wore masks at most “some of the time”, and a majority said that people in their community wore masks at most “some of the time”. What strategies most effectively encourage compliance with this critical COVID-19 prevention measure? Relying on social identity theory, we experimentally assess two possible mechanisms of compliance, elite endorsement, and social norms, among a representative sample of white US-born Evangelicals, a group that has shown resistance to prevention measures. We find evidence for both mechanisms, but social norms play a remarkably important role – increasing support for mask-wearing by 6% with spillover effects on other prevention guidelines. Our findings confirm the role that appeals to norms and elite endorsements play in shaping individual behavior and offer lessons for public health messaging.
摘要在新冠肺炎大流行期间,美国疾病控制与预防中心和世界卫生组织建议将口罩作为减少病毒传播的关键。然而,在美国,随着2020年夏天第一波疫情的爆发,五分之一的人表示他们在“某些时候”最多戴口罩,大多数人表示他们所在社区的人在“某些时间”最多戴戴口罩。哪些策略最有效地鼓励遵守这一关键的新冠肺炎预防措施?基于社会认同理论,我们在美国出生的白人福音派代表性样本中,通过实验评估了两种可能的顺从机制,即精英认可和社会规范,这一群体对预防措施表现出了抵制。我们发现了这两种机制的证据,但社会规范发挥着非常重要的作用——对戴口罩的支持增加了6%,并对其他预防指南产生了溢出效应。我们的研究结果证实了呼吁规范和精英背书在塑造个人行为方面所起的作用,并为公共卫生信息传递提供了经验教训。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Experimental Political Science
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