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Experimental Measurement of Misperception in Political Beliefs 政治信念误解的实验测量
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-10 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.2
Taylor N. Carlson, Seth J. Hill
Abstract Recent research suggests widespread misperception about the political views of others. Measuring perceptions often relies on instruments that do not separate uncertainty from inaccuracy. We present new experimental measures of second-order political beliefs. To carefully measure political (mis)perceptions, we have subjects report beliefs as probabilities. To encourage accuracy, we provide micro-incentives for each response. To measure learning, we provide information sequentially about the perception of interest. We illustrate our method by applying it to perceptions of vote choice in the 2016 presidential election. Subjects made inferences about randomly selected American National Election Study (ANES) respondents. Before and after receiving information about the other, subjects reported a probabilistic belief about the other’s vote. We find that perceptions are less biased than in previous work on second-order beliefs. Accuracy increased most with the delivery of party identification and report of a most important problem. We also find evidence of modest egocentric and different-trait bias.
摘要最近的研究表明,人们对他人的政治观点普遍存在误解。衡量感知往往依赖于没有将不确定性与不准确度区分开来的工具。我们提出了二阶政治信仰的新的实验测量方法。为了仔细衡量政治(错误)认知,我们让受试者将信念报告为概率。为了鼓励准确性,我们为每个响应提供微观激励。为了衡量学习,我们依次提供有关兴趣感知的信息。我们通过将我们的方法应用于2016年总统选举中对选票选择的看法来说明我们的方法。受试者对随机选择的美国国家选举研究(ANES)受访者进行了推断。在收到关于另一方的信息之前和之后,受试者报告了对另一方投票的概率信念。我们发现,与之前关于二阶信念的工作相比,感知的偏见更少。随着一个最重要问题的当事人身份和报告的提供,准确性提高最多。我们还发现了适度自我中心和不同特质偏见的证据。
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引用次数: 6
Education and Social Capital 教育与社会资本
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-10 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.6
B. Apfeld, E. Coman, J. Gerring, S. Jessee
Abstract Early research suggested that education was a major factor in structuring rates of political participation and social capital. More recent work based on experimental or quasi-experimental evidence offers mixed findings. In this study, we enlist a unique research setting in Romania, where passing the baccalaureate is required for entrance into university, setting up the occasion for a fuzzy RD design. The sample is drawn from a cross section of Romanians whose scores fall just above or below the cutoff. Because the sample is large and the measurement of exam scores are fine-grained, it is plausible to regard the outcome as continuous at the cutoff. Because the number of exam takers is enormous, we are able to focus on a very narrow bandwidth. The assumption of as-if random assignment is, therefore, plausible. We find that university attendance in Romania increases social capital as measured by our composite index, corroborating the main hypothesis.
摘要早期研究表明,教育是构建政治参与率和社会资本的主要因素。基于实验或准实验证据的最新研究结果喜忧参半。在这项研究中,我们在罗马尼亚寻找了一个独特的研究环境,在那里,通过学士学位是进入大学的必要条件,为模糊RD设计提供了机会。样本来自罗马尼亚人的横截面,他们的分数刚好高于或低于临界值。因为样本很大,而且对考试成绩的测量是精细的,所以在截止点将结果视为连续的是合理的。由于考生人数庞大,我们能够专注于非常窄的带宽。因此,假设随机分配是合理的。我们发现,用我们的综合指数衡量,罗马尼亚的大学入学率增加了社会资本,这证实了主要假设。
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引用次数: 1
Genes, Ideology, and Sophistication 基因、意识形态和复杂性
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.4
Nathan P. Kalmoe, Martin Johnson
Twin studies function as natural experiments that reveal political ideology’s substantial genetic roots, but how does that comport with research showing a largely nonideological public? This study integrates two important literatures and tests whether political sophistication – itself heritable – provides an “enriched environment” for genetic predispositions to actualize in political attitudes. Estimates from the Minnesota Twin Study show that sociopolitical conservatism is extraordinarily heritable (74%) for the most informed fifth of the public – much more so than population-level results (57%) – but with much lower heritability (29%) for the public’s bottom half. This heterogeneity is clearest in the Wilson–Patterson (W-P) index, with similar patterns for individual index items, an ideological constraint measure, and ideological identification. The results resolve tensions between two key fields by showing that political knowledge facilitates the expression of genetic predispositions in mass politics.
双胞胎研究是揭示政治意识形态实质遗传根源的自然实验,但这与显示基本上非意识形态公众的研究如何一致?这项研究整合了两篇重要的文献,并测试了政治复杂性——本身是可遗传的——是否为遗传倾向在政治态度中的实现提供了一个“丰富的环境”。明尼苏达双胞胎研究的估计表明,社会政治保守主义在最知情的五分之一公众中具有非凡的遗传性(74%),远高于人口水平的结果(57%),但在公众的下半部分则具有更低的遗传力(29%)。这种异质性在Wilson–Patterson(W-P)指数中最为明显,个别指数项目、意识形态约束措施和意识形态认同的模式相似。研究结果表明,政治知识有助于大众政治中基因倾向的表达,从而解决了两个关键领域之间的紧张关系。
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引用次数: 7
Teargas and Selfie Cams: Foreign Protests and Media in the Digital Age 茶会与自拍镜头:数字时代的外国抗议与媒体
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-24 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.1
Naima Green-Riley, Dominika Kruszewska-Eduardo, Ze Fu
This study explores the impact of repression of foreign protests and the media source reporting the news upon American foreign policy preferences for democracy promotion abroad. We use two survey experiments featuring carefully edited video treatments to show that even short media clips presenting foreign protests as violently repressed increase American support for targeted sanctions against the hostile regime; however, these treatments alone do not inspire respondents to political action. Furthermore, we do not find evidence that mobile treatment magnifies the effects of violence.
本研究探讨了对外国抗议活动的镇压和报道新闻的媒体来源对美国在海外促进民主的外交政策偏好的影响。我们使用了两个调查实验,其中包括精心编辑的视频处理,以表明即使是将外国抗议活动描述为暴力镇压的简短媒体剪辑也会增加美国对对敌对政权进行有针对性制裁的支持;然而,这些治疗本身并不能激发受访者采取政治行动。此外,我们没有发现流动治疗放大暴力影响的证据。
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引用次数: 1
Self-Affirmation and Identity-Driven Political Behavior 自我肯定与身份驱动的政治行为
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2020.46
Benjamin A. Lyons, Christina E. Farhart, Michael P. Hall, J. Kotcher, Matthew Levendusky, Joanne M. Miller, B. Nyhan, K. Raimi, Jason Reifler, Kyle L. Saunders, Rasmus Skytte, Xiaoquan Zhao
Abstract Psychological attachment to political parties can bias people’s attitudes, beliefs, and group evaluations. Studies from psychology suggest that self-affirmation theory may ameliorate this problem in the domain of politics on a variety of outcome measures. We report a series of studies conducted by separate research teams that examine whether a self-affirmation intervention affects a variety of outcomes, including political or policy attitudes, factual beliefs, conspiracy beliefs, affective polarization, and evaluations of news sources. The different research teams use a variety of self-affirmation interventions, research designs, and outcomes. Despite these differences, the research teams consistently find that self-affirmation treatments have little effect. These findings suggest considerable caution is warranted for researchers who wish to apply the self-affirmation framework to studies that investigate political attitudes and beliefs. By presenting the “null results” of separate research teams, we hope to spark a discussion about whether and how the self-affirmation paradigm should be applied to political topics.
摘要对政党的心理依恋会使人们的态度、信仰和群体评价产生偏见。心理学的研究表明,自我肯定理论可以通过各种结果衡量来改善政治领域的这一问题。我们报告了由独立研究团队进行的一系列研究,这些研究考察了自我肯定干预是否会影响各种结果,包括政治或政策态度、事实信念、阴谋信念、情感两极分化和对新闻来源的评估。不同的研究团队使用各种自我肯定干预、研究设计和结果。尽管存在这些差异,但研究小组一致发现,自我肯定治疗效果甚微。这些发现表明,对于那些希望将自我肯定框架应用于调查政治态度和信仰的研究的研究人员来说,有必要格外谨慎。通过呈现不同研究团队的“无效结果”,我们希望引发一场关于自我肯定范式是否以及如何应用于政治主题的讨论。
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引用次数: 5
Self-Efficacy and Citizen Engagement in Development: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania 自我效能感与发展中的公民参与:来自坦桑尼亚的实验证据
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2020.47
E. Lieberman, Yang-Yang Zhou
Abstract Recent studies of efforts to increase citizen engagement in local governance through information campaigns report mixed results. We consider whether low levels of self-efficacy beliefs limit engagement, especially among poor citizens in poor countries. Citizens may be caught in an “efficacy trap” which limits their realization of better public goods provision. We describe results from a series of experimental studies conducted with over 2,200 citizens in rural Tanzania, in which we compare the effects of standard information campaigns with Validated Participation (VP), an intervention designed to socially validate citizens’ participation. We implement a staged approach to experimental research, seeking to balance ethical and cost concerns about field experimentation. In our main analyses, we find that VP did not lead to increased levels of self-efficacy or more active citizen behaviors relative to standard informational treatments. Nonetheless, we find some promising evidence for VP in a follow-up qualitative study with teachers. We conclude by discussing lessons from this research and directions for future investigation of the possible role of self-efficacy traps in development.
摘要最近关于通过宣传运动增加公民参与地方治理的努力的研究报告了喜忧参半的结果。我们考虑低水平的自我效能信念是否限制了参与,尤其是在贫困国家的贫困公民中。公民可能会陷入“功效陷阱”,这限制了他们实现更好的公共产品供应。我们描述了对坦桑尼亚农村2200多名公民进行的一系列实验研究的结果,在这些研究中,我们将标准信息运动的效果与验证参与(VP)进行了比较,验证参与是一种旨在从社会上验证公民参与的干预措施。我们对实验研究采取分阶段的方法,试图平衡实地实验的伦理和成本问题。在我们的主要分析中,我们发现与标准信息治疗相比,VP并没有导致自我效能水平的提高或更积极的公民行为。尽管如此,在对教师的后续定性研究中,我们发现了一些有希望的VP证据。最后,我们讨论了这项研究的经验教训,以及未来自我效能陷阱在发展中可能作用的研究方向。
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引用次数: 7
The Effects of Source Cues and Issue Frames During COVID-19 新冠肺炎期间源线索和问题框架的影响
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.3
Chandler Case, Christopher Eddy, Rahul Hemrajani, Christopher Howell, Daniel Lyons, Yu-Hsien Sung, Elizabeth C. Connors
Abstract The health and economic outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic will in part be determined by how effectively experts can communicate information to the public and the degree to which people follow expert recommendation. Using a survey experiment conducted in May 2020 with almost 5,000 respondents, this paper examines the effect of source cues and message frames on perceptions of information credibility in the context of COVID-19. Each health recommendation was framed by expert or nonexpert sources, was fact- or experience-based, and suggested potential gain or loss to test if either the source cue or framing of issues affected responses to the pandemic. We find no evidence that either source cue or message framing influence people’s responses – instead, respondents’ ideological predispositions, media consumption, and age explain much of the variation in survey responses, suggesting that public health messaging may face challenges from growing ideological cleavages in American politics.
摘要新冠肺炎大流行的健康和经济结果将在一定程度上取决于专家向公众传达信息的有效性以及人们遵循专家建议的程度。本文利用2020年5月对近5000名受访者进行的调查实验,研究了来源线索和信息框架对新冠肺炎背景下信息可信度认知的影响。每一项健康建议都是由专家或非专家来源制定的,基于事实或经验,并建议潜在的收益或损失,以测试来源线索或问题框架是否影响了对大流行的反应。我们没有发现任何证据表明来源线索或信息框架会影响人们的反应——相反,受访者的意识形态倾向、媒体消费和年龄解释了调查反应的大部分变化,这表明公共卫生信息可能面临美国政治中日益严重的意识形态分歧带来的挑战。
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引用次数: 11
The Majoritarian Threat to Liberal Democracy 对自由民主的主要威胁
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-29 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2020.44
Guy Grossman, Dorothy Kronick, Matthew Levendusky, M. Meredith
Abstract Incumbents often seek to wield power in ways that are formally legal but informally proscribed. Why do voters endorse these power grabs? Prior literature focuses on polarization. We propose instead that many voters are majoritarian, in that they view popularly elected leaders’ actions as inherently democratic – even when those actions undermine liberal democracy. We find support for this claim in two original survey experiments, arguing that majoritarians’ desire to give wide latitude to elected officials is an important but understudied threat to liberal democracy in the United States.
摘要现任者通常寻求以正式合法但非正式禁止的方式行使权力。为什么选民支持这些权力争夺?先前的文献关注两极分化。相反,我们建议许多选民是多数派,因为他们认为民选领导人的行为本质上是民主的——即使这些行为破坏了自由民主。我们在两个最初的调查实验中发现了对这一说法的支持,认为多数派希望给民选官员更大的自由度是对美国自由民主的一个重要但研究不足的威胁。
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引用次数: 15
Prosociality in Majority Decisions: A Laboratory Experiment on the Robustness of the Uncovered Set 多数决策中的亲社会性:未覆盖集鲁棒性的实验室实验
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-20 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2020.43
Jan Sauermann
Abstract Social choice theory demonstrates that majority rule is generically indeterminate. However, from an empirical perspective, large and arbitrary policy shifts are rare events in politics. The uncovered set (UCS) is the dominant preference-based explanation for the apparent empirical predictability of majority rule in multiple dimensions. Its underlying logic assumes that voters act strategically, considering the ultimate consequences of their actions. I argue that all empirical applications of the UCS rest on an incomplete behavioral model assuming purely egoistically motivated individuals. Beyond material self-interest, prosocial motivations offer an additional factor to explain the outcomes of majority rule. I test my claim in a series of committee decision-making experiments in which I systematically vary the fairness properties of the policy space while keeping the location of the UCS constant. The experimental results overwhelmingly support the prosociality explanation.
摘要社会选择理论证明了多数规则在一般意义上是不确定的。然而,从经验的角度来看,大规模和武断的政策转变在政治中是罕见的。无覆盖集(UCS)是对多维多数规则的明显经验可预测性的主要基于偏好的解释。其基本逻辑假设选民采取战略性行动,考虑他们行动的最终后果。我认为UCS的所有实证应用都建立在一个不完整的行为模型上,假设个人纯粹是利己主义动机。除了物质私利,亲社会动机提供了一个额外的因素来解释多数统治的结果。我在一系列委员会决策实验中测试了我的主张,在这些实验中,我系统地改变了政策空间的公平性属性,同时保持UCS的位置不变。实验结果压倒性地支持亲社会性的解释。
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引用次数: 1
You Won’t Believe Our Results! But They Might: Heterogeneity in Beliefs About the Accuracy of Online Media 你不会相信我们的结果!但他们可能:关于网络媒体准确性的信念的异质性
IF 3.6 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-01-20 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2020.41
Mario Luca, Kevin Munger, Jonathan Nagler, Joshua A. Tucker
Abstract “Clickbait” media has long been espoused as an unfortunate consequence of the rise of digital journalism. But little is known about why readers choose to read clickbait stories. Is it merely curiosity, or might voters think such stories are more likely to provide useful information? We conduct a survey experiment in Italy, where a major political party enthusiastically embraced the esthetics of new media and encouraged their supporters to distrust legacy outlets in favor of online news. We offer respondents a monetary incentive for correct answers to manipulate the relative salience of the motivation for accurate information. This incentive increases differences in the preference for clickbait; older and less educated subjects become even more likely to opt to read a story with a clickbait headline when the incentive to produce a factually correct answer is higher. Our model suggests that a politically relevant subset of the population prefers Clickbait Media because they trust it more.
长期以来,“标题党”媒体一直被认为是数字新闻兴起的不幸后果。但读者为什么会选择阅读标题党报道,我们知之甚少。这仅仅是出于好奇,还是选民们认为这样的故事更有可能提供有用的信息?我们在意大利进行了一项调查实验,在那里,一个主要政党热情地接受了新媒体的美学,并鼓励他们的支持者不信任传统媒体,转而支持在线新闻。我们为受访者提供正确答案的金钱激励,以操纵准确信息动机的相对显著性。这种动机增加了对标题党偏好的差异;年龄较大和受教育程度较低的受试者更有可能选择阅读标题为“标题党”的文章,因为得出事实正确答案的动机更高。我们的模型表明,政治上相关的人群更喜欢标题党媒体,因为他们更信任它。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Journal of Experimental Political Science
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