International Journal of Microsimulation最新文献

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Editorial: Special Issue in honour of Vale Emerita Professor Ann Harding AO 社论：纪念淡水河谷名誉教授安-哈丁（Ann Harding AO）特刊

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00278

引用次数: 0

The ‘German Job Miracle’ and Its Impact on Income Inequality: A Decomposition Study “德国就业奇迹”及其对收入不平等的影响:一项分解研究

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00274

J. Mühlhan

In the last 15 years before the COVID-19 crisis, Germany has experienced a strong and continuous increase in employment - the ‘German job miracle'. During this period, income inequality, which had previously increased sharply, remained relatively stable. This paper analyzes the impact of employment changes on disposable income inequality between 2004 and 2015 and gives an answer to the question why inequality remained constant despite the dramatic increase in employment. It is the first study to examine the effect of changing labor supply patterns due to changes in policies, wages and preferences, as well as the role that labor market constraints have played for inequality of disposable income. It finds that inequality would have increased further due to a transforming population structure, but increasing employment and policy changes almost completely offset this development. The results show that employment growth due to the reduction of labor market constraints has been more important in slowing down the increase in inequality than changes in labor supply © 2023, Mühlhan

在新冠肺炎危机之前的过去15年里，德国经历了就业人数的强劲持续增长，这就是“德国就业奇迹”。在此期间，以前急剧增加的收入不平等现象保持相对稳定。本文分析了2004年至2015年间就业变化对可支配收入不平等的影响，并回答了为什么尽管就业人数急剧增加，但不平等现象仍保持不变的问题。这是首次研究由于政策、工资和偏好的变化而改变劳动力供应模式的影响，以及劳动力市场约束对可支配收入不平等的作用。研究发现，由于人口结构的变化，不平等现象会进一步加剧，但就业和政策变化的增加几乎完全抵消了这一发展。结果表明，劳动力市场约束减少导致的就业增长在减缓不平等加剧方面比劳动力供应的变化更重要©2023，Mühlhan

引用次数: 0

Tax and Benefit Policies to Reduce Poverty in the Netherlands: A Microsimulation Analysis 荷兰减少贫困的税收和福利政策:微观模拟分析

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00277

引用次数: 2

Analysing the Effects of Healthcare Payment Policies on Poverty: A Microsimulation Study with Real-World Healthcare Data 医疗支付政策对贫困的影响分析:基于真实医疗数据的微观模拟研究

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00276

Ph.D Katri Aaltonen, Dr Jussi Tervola, M.Sc Pekka Heino

In Europe, many people experience financial hardship due to healthcare payments, despite (near- )universal healthcare. In Finland and other countries, austerity has further widened the gaps in coverage through increases in patient payments. However, distributional analyses of austerity have solely concentrated on the effects of tax- benefit policies. We present a method for examining how health payment policies and tax- benefit policies affect household income in conjunction to evaluate the total effect of implemented and planned policies. We linked the national tax- benefit microsimulation model, SISU

在欧洲，尽管（几乎）普及了医疗保健，但许多人仍因医疗保健费用而面临经济困难。在芬兰和其他国家，紧缩政策通过增加患者付款进一步扩大了覆盖范围的差距。然而，对紧缩政策的分配分析只集中在税收优惠政策的影响上。我们提出了一种方法来检验医疗支付政策和税收优惠政策如何影响家庭收入，以评估已实施和计划实施的政策的总体效果。我们将国家税收优惠微观模拟模型SISU联系起来

引用次数: 1

Editorial and outline of the special issue 特刊的编辑和提纲

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00272

引用次数: 0

The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior 新冠肺炎对生活水平的影响：用扫描数据和未知的经济行为应对当前前所未有的宏观经济冲击的挑战

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00273

N. Lustig, V. M. Pabon, F. Sanz, S. Younger

We present a methodological approach with relatively low information requirements to quantify the impact of large, unprecedented macroeconomic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic on living standards across the income distribution. The approach can be produced quickly and, contrary to other "fast-delivery" exercises, does not assume that income losses are proportional across the income distribution, a feature that is critical to understanding the impact on poverty and inequality. Our method is sufficiently flexible to refine the projected effects of the shock as more information becomes available. We illustrate with data from the four largest countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, and discuss the estimated effect of COVID-19 on inequality and poverty. We also present the guidelines for adapting our framework to different countries and economic shocks © 2023, Lustig et al

我们提出了一种信息要求相对较低的方法论方法，以量化新冠肺炎疫情等前所未有的大规模宏观经济冲击对整个收入分配的生活水平的影响。这种方法可以快速制定，与其他“快速交付”做法相反，它并不假设收入损失在整个收入分配中是成比例的，这一特征对于理解对贫困和不平等的影响至关重要。我们的方法足够灵活，可以在获得更多信息时细化冲击的预测效果。我们用拉丁美洲四个最大国家的数据进行了说明：阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚和墨西哥，并讨论了新冠肺炎对不平等和贫困的估计影响。我们还提出了使我们的框架适应不同国家和经济冲击的指导方针©2023，Lustig等人

引用次数: 1

SWITCH: A Tax-Benefit Model for Ireland Linked to Survey and Register Data SWITCH：与调查和登记数据相关的爱尔兰税收优惠模型

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2023-04-30 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00275

C. Keane, Karina Doorley, Theano Kakoulidou, Seamus O’malley

This paper describes the development and operation of the SWITCH model, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ireland which is linked to survey and register data. SWITCH is based on the EUROMOD platform but has important advantages over the Irish component of EUROMOD, including a “current income” concept, detailed information on benefit receipt in the underlying data and the modelling of non- cash benefits. We discuss the process of creating an input dataset, including reweighting and uprating. We validate the model’s simulation of the income distribution with respect to a range of external sources and suggest future improvements

本文描述了SWITCH模型的开发和运行，SWITCH模型是爱尔兰的一个税收优惠微观模拟模型，与调查和登记数据相关。SWITCH基于EUROMOD平台，但与EUROMOD的爱尔兰部分相比具有重要优势，包括“当前收入”概念、基础数据中关于福利接收的详细信息以及非现金福利的建模。我们讨论了创建输入数据集的过程，包括重新加权和上调。我们验证了该模型对一系列外部来源的收入分配的模拟，并提出了未来的改进建议

引用次数: 3

Simulations of Policy Responses and Interventions to Promote Inclusive Adaptation to and Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Ghana 加纳促进包容性适应新冠肺炎危机并从中恢复的政策应对和干预措施模拟

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00270

E. Cooke, A. Araar, E. Abrokwah, V. Acheampong, S. Appiah

We assess the impact of COVID-19 shocks on household welfare and the effectiveness of select policies implemented to reduce their impact on welfare in Ghana. We adopt a microsimulation approach to assess the effects of COVID-19 on household welfare. Welfare fell by 34.2% to 41.9% between March and June 2020. Over the same period, the poverty headcount and the Gini index increased by 9 to 10.5 percentage points and 0.4 to 0.6 points respectively. The number of poor people increased by 2.8 to 3.2 million. The hardest-hit sector was education, with agriculture, forestry and fishing, trade and repairs, manufacturing, and other services also affected. The effects vary for men, women and children. While women experienced the largest decline in welfare, men experienced the highest increase in poverty incidence. The three policies selected reduced poverty marginally but were unable to offset the increase in poverty that occurred between March and June. The estimated cost of the three policies is GHS3.7 billion excluding administrative costs, which equates to approximately 1% of 2020 GDP © 2022, Cooke et al

我们评估了新冠肺炎冲击对家庭福利的影响，以及为减少其对加纳福利的影响而实施的选择性政策的有效性。我们采用微观模拟方法来评估新冠肺炎对家庭福利的影响。2020年3月至6月期间，福利下降了34.2%至41.9%。同期，贫困人口和基尼指数分别上升了9至10.5个百分点和0.4至0.6个百分点。贫困人口增加了280万，达到320万。受影响最严重的部门是教育，农业、林业和渔业、贸易和维修、制造业和其他服务业也受到影响。对男性、女性和儿童的影响各不相同。虽然妇女的福利下降幅度最大，但男性的贫困发生率上升幅度最大。这三项政策选择略微减少贫困，但无法抵消3月至6月期间贫困的增加。这三项政策的估计成本为37亿加纳先令，不包括行政成本，约相当于2020年GDP的1%©2022，Cooke等人

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引用次数: 1

Economic and Distributional Impacts of Covid-19 Economic Shocks on Women in Senegal 新冠肺炎经济冲击对塞内加尔妇女的经济和分配影响

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00267

H. Maisonnave, F. Cabral, M. Henseler

Like other African countries, Senegal has been hit by Covid-19 and has implemented measures to contain the epidemic. These measures impact men and women differently, mainly via the impacts on the labour market. We simulate the economic shocks in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic impacts. We capture the gendered impact on women's employment by linking the CGE model with a micro-simulation employment module. Furthermore, we assess the impact on poverty and inequality by executing a distributive analysis with a sequential top-down layered micro-simulation households module. The results show that the Senegalese economy suffers from Covid-19 measures with a decrease in gross domestic product by 5% and 7% in the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively. While most sectors are negatively affected, some benefit from the increase in foreign demand (e.g., for certain agricultural products). In terms of employment, unskilled workers are the most affected group. Female workers are relatively less affected than male workers due to the predominant presence of women in the agricultural sectors. Indeed, the increased foreign demand for agricultural products positively affects the agricultural sectors. However, poverty increases at the national level for all households, especially for rural households and households living in urban areas except Dakar. Specifically, the poverty gap and severity for rural households increase more than for urban households © 2022, Maisonnave et al

与其他非洲国家一样，塞内加尔也受到Covid-19的袭击，并已采取措施控制疫情。这些措施对男性和女性的影响不同，主要是通过对劳动力市场的影响。我们在一个可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型中模拟经济冲击，以评估经济影响。我们通过将CGE模型与微观模拟就业模块联系起来，捕捉到性别对女性就业的影响。此外，我们通过使用顺序自顶向下分层微观模拟家庭模块执行分布分析来评估对贫困和不平等的影响。结果表明，塞内加尔经济受到新冠肺炎措施的影响，在中度和重度情景下，国内生产总值分别下降5%和7%。虽然大多数部门受到不利影响，但有些部门受益于外国需求的增加(例如对某些农产品的需求)。在就业方面，非技术工人是受影响最大的群体。由于妇女在农业部门占主导地位，女工受到的影响相对较小。事实上，国外对农产品需求的增加对农业部门产生了积极影响。但是，在国家一级，所有家庭，特别是农村家庭和生活在达喀尔以外城市地区的家庭的贫穷情况有所增加。具体而言，农村家庭的贫困差距和严重程度比城市家庭增加得更多©2022,Maisonnave等

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引用次数: 0

Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Monetary Child Poverty in Morocco Covid-19大流行对摩洛哥货币儿童贫困的影响

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation

Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00268

T. Abdelkhalek, D. Boccanfuso, L. Savard

The Covid-19 pandemic had a very quick and damaging impact on several economies around the world, including in Morocco. This economy was hit hard with some sectors strongly exposed to the impact on the households and their children. In this article, we built a micro-simulation model and use it jointly with an input-output model to assess the distributional impact of COVID-19 and mitigation measures targeting households in Morocco with a focus on children living in poor households. Our original results show that the crisis has led to a fairly significant increase in poverty, with more pronounced effects in the urban area. Children under 5 years of age and young adults (over 18 years of age) are the most affected. Just over half a million children under the age of 18 would fall into poverty as a result of the pandemic. The mitigation measures put in place by the government and additional measures we designed and simulated further reduce the negative impact of the pandemic. In addition, the number of vulnerable rural population has decreased in both rural and urban areas. However, the two scenarios focusing on mitigation of the effects of the pandemic do not fully compensate for the negative effects of the pandemic in the urban area as opposed to rural areas. When we focus our analysis by age category, the incidence rates of vulnerability decrease to their initial rates for children under 5 years of age and decrease very slightly for youth aged 5 to 17 years at the national level. However, we find that this vulnerability is deeper and more severe even after the implementation of compensatory measures © 2022, Abdelkhalek et al

2019冠状病毒病大流行对包括摩洛哥在内的世界多个经济体产生了非常迅速和破坏性的影响。经济受到严重打击，一些部门严重受到家庭及其子女的影响。在本文中，我们建立了一个微观模拟模型，并将其与投入产出模型结合使用，评估了COVID-19对摩洛哥家庭的分布影响和缓解措施，重点关注生活在贫困家庭的儿童。我们最初的结果表明，危机导致了贫困人口的显著增加，对城市地区的影响更为明显。5岁以下儿童和年轻人(18岁以上)受影响最大。50多万18岁以下儿童将因这一流行病而陷入贫困。政府实施的缓解措施以及我们设计和模拟的其他措施进一步减少了大流行的负面影响。此外，农村和城市地区的脆弱农村人口数量都有所减少。然而，侧重于减轻大流行病影响的两种设想并不能完全弥补大流行病对城市地区而不是农村地区的负面影响。当我们按年龄分类进行分析时，5岁以下儿童的脆弱性发生率下降到初始水平，而在全国范围内，5至17岁的青少年的脆弱性发生率略有下降。然而，我们发现，即使在实施补偿措施后，这种脆弱性也更加深刻和严重©2022,Abdelkhalek等人

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引用次数: 0

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