Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2048
Brigit L Davis, A. Wenger
For most of the 2000s, experts assessed that social movements across the globe were increasingly engendering most of the threats nation-states faced internally and externally. These assessments and extensive literature on social movement use of social media underpinned a doctoral research effort that helped address a noted literature gap in predicting social movement threats via social media. The research results showed social movement themes are observable in social media content and, although not fully vetted, National Security practitioners can use these themes in a structured analytical model to assess the probability of a threat. This article provides an overview of the research and model in the dissertation Anticipating Social Movement National Security Threats: Social Media Content’s Potential in Developing a Structure Analytical Model.
{"title":"Developing a Structured Analytical Model to Anticipate Social Movement National Security Threats","authors":"Brigit L Davis, A. Wenger","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2048","url":null,"abstract":"For most of the 2000s, experts assessed that social movements across the globe were increasingly engendering most of the threats nation-states faced internally and externally. These assessments and extensive literature on social movement use of social media underpinned a doctoral research effort that helped address a noted literature gap in predicting social movement threats via social media. The research results showed social movement themes are observable in social media content and, although not fully vetted, National Security practitioners can use these themes in a structured analytical model to assess the probability of a threat. This article provides an overview of the research and model in the dissertation Anticipating Social Movement National Security Threats: Social Media Content’s Potential in Developing a Structure Analytical Model.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46632257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2014
Mikael Lohse
The Secretary of State established the Office of the United States Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (USSC) in 2005 to meet U.S. commitments under the Middle East Roadmap for Peace. USSC’s vision is to strive for a civilian-controlled, self-sustaining, affordable, and accountable security structure, focused on “police primacy”, operating within the rule of law while providing necessary law enforcement to safeguard the Palestinian people. This vision is far from accomplished: Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces continue arbitrary detention, torture, and use of excessive force. This article examines the wide applicability of police powers – premised as the main reason for chaotic law enforcement activities within the PA’s security forces – agency by agency, and by considering both laws in force and proposed draft legislation. The article ends with recommendations to institutionalize police primacy by means of regulation.
{"title":"Police Primacy: Organizing Police Powers under the Palestinian Authority","authors":"Mikael Lohse","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2014","url":null,"abstract":"The Secretary of State established the Office of the United States Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (USSC) in 2005 to meet U.S. commitments under the Middle East Roadmap for Peace. USSC’s vision is to strive for a civilian-controlled, self-sustaining, affordable, and accountable security structure, focused on “police primacy”, operating within the rule of law while providing necessary law enforcement to safeguard the Palestinian people. This vision is far from accomplished: Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces continue arbitrary detention, torture, and use of excessive force. This article examines the wide applicability of police powers – premised as the main reason for chaotic law enforcement activities within the PA’s security forces – agency by agency, and by considering both laws in force and proposed draft legislation. The article ends with recommendations to institutionalize police primacy by means of regulation.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41991699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2060
John Sullivan
{"title":"We Are Bellingcat: Global Crime, Online Sleuths, and the Bold Future of News. By Elliot Higgins, New York: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2021.","authors":"John Sullivan","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2060","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42884769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2009
G. Krieger
The Greater Sahel is one of the world’s most troubled regions. Within the region, Mali is the regional lynchpin and has been the focus of French efforts to eradicate terrorist groups. The essay seeks to answer the question, “Why has violence increased and terrorist cells continued to thrive in Mali despite international efforts?” Although the issue is more complicated and nuanced, corruption and poor governance are significant factors in increased violence. Local leaders focus on militarization and violent suppression to maintain control over larger cities while neglecting rural communities. These actions undermine the government’s legitimacy, exacerbated by rampant corruption. Secondary sources and conflict databases are utilized to provide quantitative analysis while also using a qualitative lens to factor in governance and engagement of the public, which are more challenging to measure. The essay provides an overview of the challenges, followed by a background of UN training missions in the Sahel and a cursory history and regional challenges. An analysis of the French withdrawal from Mali highlights the challenges of foreign governments. The conclusion provides suggestions for future missions in the region, focusing on governance, basic human rights, infrastructure, and essential services for the population.
{"title":"Challenges in Mali, the Importance of Legitimate Governance in Combatting Terrorism and Violent Extremism","authors":"G. Krieger","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2009","url":null,"abstract":"The Greater Sahel is one of the world’s most troubled regions. Within the region, Mali is the regional lynchpin and has been the focus of French efforts to eradicate terrorist groups. The essay seeks to answer the question, “Why has violence increased and terrorist cells continued to thrive in Mali despite international efforts?” Although the issue is more complicated and nuanced, corruption and poor governance are significant factors in increased violence. Local leaders focus on militarization and violent suppression to maintain control over larger cities while neglecting rural communities. These actions undermine the government’s legitimacy, exacerbated by rampant corruption. Secondary sources and conflict databases are utilized to provide quantitative analysis while also using a qualitative lens to factor in governance and engagement of the public, which are more challenging to measure. The essay provides an overview of the challenges, followed by a background of UN training missions in the Sahel and a cursory history and regional challenges. An analysis of the French withdrawal from Mali highlights the challenges of foreign governments. The conclusion provides suggestions for future missions in the region, focusing on governance, basic human rights, infrastructure, and essential services for the population.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43524054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2000
Adam W Greco
As one of the few nations in the world (and the only one in the vicinity of China) to be a former colony of the United States, the Philippines is in a unique position on the world stage. This article delineates the history of the complex relationship between the Philippines and the United States since the Spanish-American war while placing an emphasis on modern relations. Since its independence to the end of the Cold War, the Philippines was unequivocally an ally to the United States, though this did not stop tensions from mounting. As China's contemporary foreign policy fosters further amicability between it and the Philippines under the Belt and Road Initiative, this has given rise to worries of a potential pivot to China. Furthermore, hostile sentiments conveyed from certain facets of the Philippines’ leadership towards the United States accelerate these concerns. This article delves into the current relationship between the Philippines and the United States while outlining avenues for further cooperation via mutual benefit, particularly within the realm of developmental assistance.
{"title":"A Relationship of Pivots: Philippine-US Cooperation in a Changing World","authors":"Adam W Greco","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2000","url":null,"abstract":"As one of the few nations in the world (and the only one in the vicinity of China) to be a former colony of the United States, the Philippines is in a unique position on the world stage. This article delineates the history of the complex relationship between the Philippines and the United States since the Spanish-American war while placing an emphasis on modern relations. Since its independence to the end of the Cold War, the Philippines was unequivocally an ally to the United States, though this did not stop tensions from mounting. As China's contemporary foreign policy fosters further amicability between it and the Philippines under the Belt and Road Initiative, this has given rise to worries of a potential pivot to China. Furthermore, hostile sentiments conveyed from certain facets of the Philippines’ leadership towards the United States accelerate these concerns. This article delves into the current relationship between the Philippines and the United States while outlining avenues for further cooperation via mutual benefit, particularly within the realm of developmental assistance.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47824953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2059
D. Weng
{"title":"Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International Relations in East Asia. Edited By Etel Solingen. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2021.","authors":"D. Weng","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2059","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42022449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2005
David Gómez Triana, J. Ríos
A fundamental aspect in the study of the Colombian armed conflict is related to the violence produced in the country after the signing of the Peace Agreement with the FARC-EP guerrillas in November 2016. To this end, we attempt to analyze the transformation of the relationship between the perpetrators of violence and their territory, taking as a case study a region particularly affected by the conflict, as is Llanos Orientales (known in English as the Eastern Plains). Starting with a preliminary characterization of the most relevant armed groups – post-paramilitary groups, FARC-EP dissidents and ELN guerrillas – we attempt to analyze the changes and continuities of their armed presence and the symbolic, structural and institutional aspects that explain their territorial distribution in this part of the country. In this way, the presence of the former FARC-EP and concurring factors such as the coca trade, oil industry and poverty are aspects that should be considered in order to understand the shifting geometry of violence.
{"title":"Armed Violence in the Llanos Orientales Region Following the Signing of the Peace Agreement with the FARC-EP in Colombia","authors":"David Gómez Triana, J. Ríos","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.3.2005","url":null,"abstract":"A fundamental aspect in the study of the Colombian armed conflict is related to the violence produced in the country after the signing of the Peace Agreement with the FARC-EP guerrillas in November 2016. To this end, we attempt to analyze the transformation of the relationship between the perpetrators of violence and their territory, taking as a case study a region particularly affected by the conflict, as is Llanos Orientales (known in English as the Eastern Plains). Starting with a preliminary characterization of the most relevant armed groups – post-paramilitary groups, FARC-EP dissidents and ELN guerrillas – we attempt to analyze the changes and continuities of their armed presence and the symbolic, structural and institutional aspects that explain their territorial distribution in this part of the country. In this way, the presence of the former FARC-EP and concurring factors such as the coca trade, oil industry and poverty are aspects that should be considered in order to understand the shifting geometry of violence.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47350933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1985
Ciwan M. Can
This article explains why existing great powers can engage in cooperative relations with rising great powers that fuel the rise of the latter into competitors. By adopting a temporal theoretical lens and providing an examination of US-China relations in the post-Cold War era, it is argued that uncertainty about Chinese long-term intentions, economic benefits from cooperation, and the existence of other clear and imminent challenges to address incentivized the US to adopt a cooperative policy towards China. Assertive moves by China from the late 2000s onwards that the United States perceived to be indications of long-term malign intentions, the emergence of economic competition, and the fading of other challenges to US interests by the 2010s, removed these incentives for engagement and consequently led to a change from cooperative to competitive policies. This article is aimed to address the crucial questions of why the United States helped accelerate the rise of China into a peer competitor, and why that policy has changed to one in which the United States now has engaged in strategic competition with China.
{"title":"Temporal Theory and US-China Relations","authors":"Ciwan M. Can","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1985","url":null,"abstract":"This article explains why existing great powers can engage in cooperative relations with rising great powers that fuel the rise of the latter into competitors. By adopting a temporal theoretical lens and providing an examination of US-China relations in the post-Cold War era, it is argued that uncertainty about Chinese long-term intentions, economic benefits from cooperation, and the existence of other clear and imminent challenges to address incentivized the US to adopt a cooperative policy towards China. Assertive moves by China from the late 2000s onwards that the United States perceived to be indications of long-term malign intentions, the emergence of economic competition, and the fading of other challenges to US interests by the 2010s, removed these incentives for engagement and consequently led to a change from cooperative to competitive policies. This article is aimed to address the crucial questions of why the United States helped accelerate the rise of China into a peer competitor, and why that policy has changed to one in which the United States now has engaged in strategic competition with China.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43298549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1983
Anubhav Goswami
China’s vastly increased economic and military might has alarmed the United States about sustaining its relative power in the world. Observing the growing influence of Beijing in the international world order, experts of ‘great power competition’ are now asking: What will be the reaction of the United States once China achieves parity or even comes close to achieving parity with Washington?As could be expected from its nature, the question has generated sharp polarising viewpoints but none has spawned more interest and controversy than Harvard Professor Graham T. Allison’s ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ discourse which argues that China’s spectacular rise could lead to a violent yet avoidable war with the United States along the lines of previous conflicts between a rulingpower and a risingpower. This study describes that if the United States continues to pursue its hegemonic grand strategy, it will accelerate the conflict which might trigger the Thucydides’ trap with China. The aim and objective of this study is to recommend a revision in the United States grand strategy from hegemony to a ‘balancing’ strategy to reduce the risk of strategic rivalry with China turning into a full-blown war.
{"title":"Balancing Grand Strategy for America to Offset Thucydides’s Trap with China","authors":"Anubhav Goswami","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1983","url":null,"abstract":"China’s vastly increased economic and military might has alarmed the United States about sustaining its relative power in the world. Observing the growing influence of Beijing in the international world order, experts of ‘great power competition’ are now asking: \u0000 What will be the reaction of the United States once China achieves parity or even comes close to achieving parity with Washington?As could be expected from its nature, the question has generated sharp polarising viewpoints but none has spawned more interest and controversy than Harvard Professor Graham T. Allison’s ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ discourse which argues that China’s spectacular rise could lead to a violent yet avoidable war with the United States along the lines of previous conflicts between a \u0000 rulingpower and a \u0000 risingpower. This study describes that if the United States continues to pursue its hegemonic grand strategy, it will accelerate the conflict which might trigger the Thucydides’ trap with China. The aim and objective of this study is to recommend a revision in the United States grand strategy from hegemony to a ‘balancing’ strategy to reduce the risk of strategic rivalry with China turning into a full-blown war.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42082055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2030
M. Peters
{"title":"The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin, Penguin Books, 2021.","authors":"M. Peters","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2030","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48664920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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