Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2029
S. Laroussi
{"title":"Drug Wars and Covert Netherworlds: The Transformation of Mexico’s Narco Cartels. By James H. Creechan. Tucson: The University of Arizona Press, 2021.","authors":"S. Laroussi","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2029","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46827106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1969
A. Rodin
Two of the biggest issues in international politics today are climate change and the ongoing power transition between the United States and China. However, very few works examine the way these issues interact with each other. This paper attempts to resolve this by integrating climate change into power transition theory (PTT), which attempts to capture the behavior of states in the midst of transition to or from global power. This paper first analyzes the literatures on the (tenuous) links between environmental degradation and interstate conflict as well as PTT. Opportunities for integration are then examined, especially focusing on climate change's impact on the central variables of power and state satisfaction. These theoretical links are then applied to the looming US-Sino transition and highlight how climate change opens up new arenas of great power competition, exacerbates tensions and impacts relative power in unpredictable ways.
{"title":"Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and Power Transition Theory","authors":"A. Rodin","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1969","url":null,"abstract":"Two of the biggest issues in international politics today are climate change and the ongoing power transition between the United States and China. However, very few works examine the way these issues interact with each other. This paper attempts to resolve this by integrating climate change into power transition theory (PTT), which attempts to capture the behavior of states in the midst of transition to or from global power. This paper first analyzes the literatures on the (tenuous) links between environmental degradation and interstate conflict as well as PTT. Opportunities for integration are then examined, especially focusing on climate change's impact on the central variables of power and state satisfaction. These theoretical links are then applied to the looming US-Sino transition and highlight how climate change opens up new arenas of great power competition, exacerbates tensions and impacts relative power in unpredictable ways.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44712077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1954
J. Devanny, L. Goldoni, B. Medeiros
Over the last decade, "cyber power" has become an increasingly prominent concept and instrument of national strategy. This article explores the nature of contemporary cyber power, focusing on how states should respond to "cyber uncertainty." Cases of cyber operations against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as cyber operations conducted (and suffered) by the United States, highlight the evolving role of cyber operations as an instrument of statecraft. Given the complexity of cyber forensics and the polluted information environment of the global public sphere, the public diplomacy of coordinated attribution statements cannot be expected to cut through conclusively or uniformly. States must therefore organise themselves effectively to produce and implement coherent cyber strategy, improving their relational cyber power. This should focus on cyber security and resilience, but also including effective cyber diplomacy, and assessment of what sovereign offensive capabilities are desirable and feasible.
{"title":"Strategy in an Uncertain Domain: Threat and Response in Cyberspace","authors":"J. Devanny, L. Goldoni, B. Medeiros","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1954","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last decade, \"cyber power\" has become an increasingly prominent concept and instrument of national strategy. This article explores the nature of contemporary cyber power, focusing on how states should respond to \"cyber uncertainty.\" Cases of cyber operations against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as cyber operations conducted (and suffered) by the United States, highlight the evolving role of cyber operations as an instrument of statecraft. Given the complexity of cyber forensics and the polluted information environment of the global public sphere, the public diplomacy of coordinated attribution statements cannot be expected to cut through conclusively or uniformly. States must therefore organise themselves effectively to produce and implement coherent cyber strategy, improving their relational cyber power. This should focus on cyber security and resilience, but also including effective cyber diplomacy, and assessment of what sovereign offensive capabilities are desirable and feasible.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42600878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1982
M. Shiva, H. Molana
Whether or not a country is likely to encounter an internal armed conflict is considered in the literature to depend, among other things, on its extent of economic and political development. Using a dataset covering 139 countries over the 1961-2011 period, we find that a country’s per capita income has an unambiguously negative effect on the probability that it encounters an armed conflict as long as it does not suffer from a severe political instability. In contrast, countries that experience severe political instability are more likely to encounter an armed conflict the higher is their per capita income. The policy implication of our result is clear: safeguarding political stability during hard times is essential – and should take precedence over enhancing democracy and economic growth – for reducing the risk of internal armed conflicts. Our findings do not undermine the importance of protecting democratic institution or accountability, but underscore the importance of collaboration across opposing parties to progress while preserving the political stability.
{"title":"On Income, Democracy, Political Stability, and Internal Armed Conflicts","authors":"M. Shiva, H. Molana","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.1982","url":null,"abstract":"Whether or not a country is likely to encounter an internal armed conflict is considered in the literature to depend, among other things, on its extent of economic and political development. Using a dataset covering 139 countries over the 1961-2011 period, we find that a country’s per capita income has an unambiguously negative effect on the probability that it encounters an armed conflict as long as it does not suffer from a severe political instability. In contrast, countries that experience severe political instability are more likely to encounter an armed conflict the higher is their per capita income. The policy implication of our result is clear: safeguarding political stability during hard times is essential – and should take precedence over enhancing democracy and economic growth – for reducing the risk of internal armed conflicts. Our findings do not undermine the importance of protecting democratic institution or accountability, but underscore the importance of collaboration across opposing parties to progress while preserving the political stability.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47668449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2031
D. Sibila
{"title":"Terrorism, Gender, and Women: Toward an Integrated Research Agenda. Edited by Alexandra Phelan. New York: Routledge, 2021.","authors":"D. Sibila","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.2.2031","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45974794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1976
John Sullivan, G. Lester
This article looks at the evolution of US domestic intelligence prior to and since 9/11 in light of the Capitol attacks. It also reviews the literature and practice of intelligence reform in the context of foreign comparative experience (France, UK, Canada, Australia). It looks at the promise of fusion centers, cocontemporay domestic intelligence models, and the continuing need for domestic intelligence reform. Additional Keywords: Domestic Intelligence, Intelligence Reform, Intelligence Fusion
{"title":"Revisiting Domestic Intelligence","authors":"John Sullivan, G. Lester","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1976","url":null,"abstract":"This article looks at the evolution of US domestic intelligence prior to and since 9/11 in light of the Capitol attacks. It also reviews the literature and practice of intelligence reform in the context of foreign comparative experience (France, UK, Canada, Australia). It looks at the promise of fusion centers, cocontemporay domestic intelligence models, and the continuing need for domestic intelligence reform.\u0000Additional Keywords: Domestic Intelligence, Intelligence Reform, Intelligence Fusion","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44856564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1973
J. Honigman
Although they have proven themselves to be loyal and capable U.S. partners, America has refused to endorse either independence for Iraqi Kurds or autonomy for Syrian Kurds. That policy has been academically underscored by several Realism-based concepts including an offshore balancing approach to the Middle East. This paper argues that America can adjust to new realities in the region without having to forsake its worthwhile Kurdish partnerships. I first compare and contrast the costs of American support for Kurds and then refute the notion that Kurdish independence in Iraq or autonomy in Syria would cause instability or be nonviable. I then recount recent Kurdish actions that have benefited America and argue that the subsequent U.S. capitulations to Baghdad and Ankara were unnecessary and strategically short-sighted. Lastly, I examine America's relationship with Turkey to discern if it merits impeding U.S. Kurdish policy. This paper concludes that America's endorsement of independence in Iraqi Kurdistan and perpetual autonomy in Northeast Syria would not be merely altruistic, but primarily a realpolitik reassertion of U.S. geopolitical strategy.
{"title":"Never Mind Betrayal: America's Indifference to the Kurds is a Strategic Blunder","authors":"J. Honigman","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1973","url":null,"abstract":"Although they have proven themselves to be loyal and capable U.S. partners, America has refused to endorse either independence for Iraqi Kurds or autonomy for Syrian Kurds. That policy has been academically underscored by several Realism-based concepts including an offshore balancing approach to the Middle East. This paper argues that America can adjust to new realities in the region without having to forsake its worthwhile Kurdish partnerships. I first compare and contrast the costs of American support for Kurds and then refute the notion that Kurdish independence in Iraq or autonomy in Syria would cause instability or be nonviable. I then recount recent Kurdish actions that have benefited America and argue that the subsequent U.S. capitulations to Baghdad and Ankara were unnecessary and strategically short-sighted. Lastly, I examine America's relationship with Turkey to discern if it merits impeding U.S. Kurdish policy. This paper concludes that America's endorsement of independence in Iraqi Kurdistan and perpetual autonomy in Northeast Syria would not be merely altruistic, but primarily a realpolitik reassertion of U.S. geopolitical strategy.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43890131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2018
Mark Peters II
{"title":"China's Energy Security and Relations with Petrostates by Anna Kuteleva, Routledge Publishing, Taylor and Francis Group, 2021.","authors":"Mark Peters II","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70478707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2020
Daniel Argomedo Weisz
{"title":"A Comparative Analysis of the \"Mexican Drug Violence: Hybrid Warfare, Predatory Capitalism and the Logic of Cruelty\" and \"The Rise of the Narcostate (Mafia States)","authors":"Daniel Argomedo Weisz","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.2020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43064535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1974
Samuel Žilinčík
It is common, though erroneous, to think of rational and emotional decision-making as being opposed to each other. The binary distinction originated in Western philosophy and subsequently spread to other fields, including strategic studies. Strategic studies scholarship has nurtured this binary in two mainstream traditions, classical strategic theory and the coercion school. The distinction is fallacious because all strategically relevant decisions are emotional, and many of these decisions can be rational. Abandoning the false dichotomy is necessary for the field to remain relevant and for strategists to better understand their choices and the decisions made by their adversaries. Accordingly, this article proposes a new way of thinking about the role of emotions in strategic decision-making, one that starts from the appreciation that all strategically relevant choices are emotional.
{"title":"Emotional and Rational Decision-Making in Strategic Studies: Moving Beyond the False Dichotomy","authors":"Samuel Žilinčík","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.1.1974","url":null,"abstract":"It is common, though erroneous, to think of rational and emotional decision-making as being opposed to each other. The binary distinction originated in Western philosophy and subsequently spread to other fields, including strategic studies. Strategic studies scholarship has nurtured this binary in two mainstream traditions, classical strategic theory and the coercion school. The distinction is fallacious because all strategically relevant decisions are emotional, and many of these decisions can be rational. Abandoning the false dichotomy is necessary for the field to remain relevant and for strategists to better understand their choices and the decisions made by their adversaries. Accordingly, this article proposes a new way of thinking about the role of emotions in strategic decision-making, one that starts from the appreciation that all strategically relevant choices are emotional.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49004603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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