Abstract Objectives: Compartmental models are helpful tools to simulate and predict the spread of infectious diseases. In this work we use the SEIR model to discuss the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic for countries with the most confirmed cases up to the end of 2020, i.e. the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Brazil, and India. The simulation considers the susceptible, exposed, infective, and the recovered cases of the disease. Method: We employ the order Runge–Kutta method to solve the SIER model equations-for modelling and forecasting the spread of the new coronavirus disease. The parameters used in this work are based on the confirmed cases from the real data available for the countries reporting most cases up to December 29, 2020. Results: We extracted the coefficients of the exposed, infected, recovered and mortality rate of the SEIR model by fitting the collected real data of the new coronavirus disease up to December 29, 2020 in the countries with the most cases. We predict the dates of the peak of the infection and the basic reproduction number for the countries studied here. We foresee COVID-19 peaks in January-February 2021 in Brazil and the United Kingdom, and in February-March 2021 in France, Russia, and India, and in March-April 2021 in the United States. Also, we find that the average value of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is 2.1460. Conclusion: We find that the predicted peak infection of COVID-19 will happen in the first half of 2021 in the six considered countries. The basic SARS-CoV-19 reproduction number values range within 1.0158–3.6642 without vaccination.
{"title":"Applying SEIR model without vaccination for COVID-19 in case of the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, France, and India","authors":"Marwan Al-Raeei, M. S. El-daher, Oliya Solieva","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: Compartmental models are helpful tools to simulate and predict the spread of infectious diseases. In this work we use the SEIR model to discuss the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic for countries with the most confirmed cases up to the end of 2020, i.e. the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Brazil, and India. The simulation considers the susceptible, exposed, infective, and the recovered cases of the disease. Method: We employ the order Runge–Kutta method to solve the SIER model equations-for modelling and forecasting the spread of the new coronavirus disease. The parameters used in this work are based on the confirmed cases from the real data available for the countries reporting most cases up to December 29, 2020. Results: We extracted the coefficients of the exposed, infected, recovered and mortality rate of the SEIR model by fitting the collected real data of the new coronavirus disease up to December 29, 2020 in the countries with the most cases. We predict the dates of the peak of the infection and the basic reproduction number for the countries studied here. We foresee COVID-19 peaks in January-February 2021 in Brazil and the United Kingdom, and in February-March 2021 in France, Russia, and India, and in March-April 2021 in the United States. Also, we find that the average value of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is 2.1460. Conclusion: We find that the predicted peak infection of COVID-19 will happen in the first half of 2021 in the six considered countries. The basic SARS-CoV-19 reproduction number values range within 1.0158–3.6642 without vaccination.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78889687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This New Year’s wake-up call warned us of Democles’ sword in the form of COVID-19, an epidemic turned pandemic. Seeming to reach a novel and awful landmark every day, governments across globe are fighting on toes to contain its spread. The pandemic is accelerating and information is being updated and changing by the hour. Till date shattering causalities across globe have been reported to World Health Organization. Nevertheless, the world is responding to this novel enemy with urgency and purpose. The challenge is great, but the response has been massive. Record characterisation and multiple sequences of this novel pathogen are being shared on global platform leading to a lot of diagnostics to get developed. Currently no treatment is effective against COVID-19 and there is a desperate need for international solidarity for valuable therapeutics. Present article briefs some milestones achieved by the killer virus thereby posing a challenge to medical science.
{"title":"Zealous clout of COVID-19: analytical research at sixes and sevens","authors":"Madhu Raina","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This New Year’s wake-up call warned us of Democles’ sword in the form of COVID-19, an epidemic turned pandemic. Seeming to reach a novel and awful landmark every day, governments across globe are fighting on toes to contain its spread. The pandemic is accelerating and information is being updated and changing by the hour. Till date shattering causalities across globe have been reported to World Health Organization. Nevertheless, the world is responding to this novel enemy with urgency and purpose. The challenge is great, but the response has been massive. Record characterisation and multiple sequences of this novel pathogen are being shared on global platform leading to a lot of diagnostics to get developed. Currently no treatment is effective against COVID-19 and there is a desperate need for international solidarity for valuable therapeutics. Present article briefs some milestones achieved by the killer virus thereby posing a challenge to medical science.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73439307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hozhabr Jamali Atergeleh, M. Emamian, Shahrbanoo Goli, M. Rohani-Rasaf, H. Hashemi, A. Fotouhi
Abstract Objectives To investigate the risk factors of COVID-19 infection in a longitudinal study of a population aged 50–74 years. Methods Data were collected from Shahroud Eye Cohort study and the COVID-19 electronic registry in Shahroud, northeast Iran. Participants were followed for about 13 months and predisposing factors for COVID-19 infection were investigated using log binominal model and calculating relative risks. Results From the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shahroud (February 20, 2020) to March 26, 2021, out of 4,394 participants in the Eye Cohort study, 271 (6.1%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test on two nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Risk factors for COVID-19 infection included male gender (relative risk (RR) = 1.51; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.15–1.99), body mass index (BMI) over 25 (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.05), and diabetes (RR = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.02–1.67). Also, smoking (RR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.28–0.93) and education (RR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92–0.98) showed inverse associations. Conclusions Men, diabetics, and those with BMI over 25 should be more cognizant and adhere to health protocols related to COVID-19 prevention and should be given priority for vaccination.
{"title":"The risk factors of COVID-19 in 50–74 years old people: a longitudinal population-based study","authors":"Hozhabr Jamali Atergeleh, M. Emamian, Shahrbanoo Goli, M. Rohani-Rasaf, H. Hashemi, A. Fotouhi","doi":"10.1515/em-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives To investigate the risk factors of COVID-19 infection in a longitudinal study of a population aged 50–74 years. Methods Data were collected from Shahroud Eye Cohort study and the COVID-19 electronic registry in Shahroud, northeast Iran. Participants were followed for about 13 months and predisposing factors for COVID-19 infection were investigated using log binominal model and calculating relative risks. Results From the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shahroud (February 20, 2020) to March 26, 2021, out of 4,394 participants in the Eye Cohort study, 271 (6.1%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test on two nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Risk factors for COVID-19 infection included male gender (relative risk (RR) = 1.51; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.15–1.99), body mass index (BMI) over 25 (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.05), and diabetes (RR = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.02–1.67). Also, smoking (RR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.28–0.93) and education (RR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92–0.98) showed inverse associations. Conclusions Men, diabetics, and those with BMI over 25 should be more cognizant and adhere to health protocols related to COVID-19 prevention and should be given priority for vaccination.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78259140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology show that the proposed model describes well the evolution of infections at the district level. The data shows evidence in favor of the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate; and not in favor of the second hypothesis, that quarantine reduces the population infected. Districts of higher socio-economic levels have a lower infection rate, and quarantine is more effective. Conclusions: Quarantine, in most districts, does not reduce the total number of people infected in the wave; it only reduces the rate at which they are infected. The reduction in the infection rate avoids peaks that may collapse the health system.
{"title":"The impact of quarantine on Covid-19 infections","authors":"P. Marshall","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0038","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology show that the proposed model describes well the evolution of infections at the district level. The data shows evidence in favor of the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate; and not in favor of the second hypothesis, that quarantine reduces the population infected. Districts of higher socio-economic levels have a lower infection rate, and quarantine is more effective. Conclusions: Quarantine, in most districts, does not reduce the total number of people infected in the wave; it only reduces the rate at which they are infected. The reduction in the infection rate avoids peaks that may collapse the health system.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86368507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Objectives One important variable influencing day-to-day decisions in COVID-19 pandemic has been an impending shortage of mechanical ventilators due to the large number of people that become infected with the virus due to its high contagiousness. We developed a stepwise Markov model (a) to make a short-term prediction of the number of patients on ventilator, and (b) to determine a possible date for a ventilator crisis. Methods Starting with the exponential curve of new cases in the previous 14 days, we calculated a Markov model every 5 days thereafter, resulting in a daily estimate of patients on ventilator for the following 25 days, which we compared with the daily number of devices in use to predict a date for ventilator crisis. Results During the modeled period, the observed and predicted Markov curves of patients on ventilator were very similar, a finding confirmed by both linear regression (r=0.984; p<0.0001) and the near coincidence with the identity line. Our model estimated ventilator shortage in Chile for June 1st, if the number of devices had remained stable. However, the crisis did not occur due to acquisition of new ventilators by the Ministry of Health. Conclusions In Chile as in many other countries experiencing several asynchronous local peaks of COVID-19, the stepwise Markov model could become a useful tool for predicting the date of mechanical ventilator crisis. We propose that our model could help health authorities to: (a) establish a better ventilator distribution strategy and (b) be ready to reinstate restrictions only when necessary so as not to paralyze the economy as much.
{"title":"Stepwise Markov model: a good method for forecasting mechanical ventilator crisis in COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"P. Olmos, G. Borzone","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives One important variable influencing day-to-day decisions in COVID-19 pandemic has been an impending shortage of mechanical ventilators due to the large number of people that become infected with the virus due to its high contagiousness. We developed a stepwise Markov model (a) to make a short-term prediction of the number of patients on ventilator, and (b) to determine a possible date for a ventilator crisis. Methods Starting with the exponential curve of new cases in the previous 14 days, we calculated a Markov model every 5 days thereafter, resulting in a daily estimate of patients on ventilator for the following 25 days, which we compared with the daily number of devices in use to predict a date for ventilator crisis. Results During the modeled period, the observed and predicted Markov curves of patients on ventilator were very similar, a finding confirmed by both linear regression (r=0.984; p<0.0001) and the near coincidence with the identity line. Our model estimated ventilator shortage in Chile for June 1st, if the number of devices had remained stable. However, the crisis did not occur due to acquisition of new ventilators by the Ministry of Health. Conclusions In Chile as in many other countries experiencing several asynchronous local peaks of COVID-19, the stepwise Markov model could become a useful tool for predicting the date of mechanical ventilator crisis. We propose that our model could help health authorities to: (a) establish a better ventilator distribution strategy and (b) be ready to reinstate restrictions only when necessary so as not to paralyze the economy as much.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80943603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Objectives This study aimed to apply three of the most important nonlinear growth models (Gompertz, Richards, and Weibull) to study the daily cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Iraq during the period from 13th of March, 2020 to 22nd of July, 2020. Methods Using the nonlinear least squares method, the three growth models were estimated in addition to calculating some related measures in this study using the “nonlinear regression” tool available in Minitab-17, and the initial values of the parameters were deduced from the transformation to the simple linear regression equation. Comparison of these models was made using some statistics (F-test, AIC, BIC, AICc and WIC). Results The results indicate that the Weibull model is the best adequate model for studying the cumulative daily number of COVID-19 cases in Iraq according to some criteria such as having the highest F and lowest values for RMSE, bias, MAE, AIC, BIC, AICc and WIC with no any violations of the assumptions for the model’s residuals (independent, normal distribution and homogeneity variance). The overall model test and tests of the estimated parameters showed that the Weibull model was statistically significant for describing the study data. Conclusions From the Weibull model predictions, the number of cumulative confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in Iraq will increase by a range of 101,396 (95% PI: 99,989 to 102,923) to 114,907 (95% PI: 112,251 to 117,566) in the next 24 days (23rd of July to 15th of August 15, 2020). From the inflection points in the Weibull curve, the peak date when the growth rate will be maximum, is 7th of July, 2020, and at this time the daily cumulative cases become 67,338. Using the nonlinear least squares method, the models were estimated and some related measures were calculated in this study using the “nonlinear regression” tool available in Minitab-17, and the initial values of the parameters were obtained from the transformation to the simple linear regression model.
{"title":"Statistical modeling of the novel COVID-19 epidemic in Iraq","authors":"Ban Ghanim Al-Ani","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives This study aimed to apply three of the most important nonlinear growth models (Gompertz, Richards, and Weibull) to study the daily cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Iraq during the period from 13th of March, 2020 to 22nd of July, 2020. Methods Using the nonlinear least squares method, the three growth models were estimated in addition to calculating some related measures in this study using the “nonlinear regression” tool available in Minitab-17, and the initial values of the parameters were deduced from the transformation to the simple linear regression equation. Comparison of these models was made using some statistics (F-test, AIC, BIC, AICc and WIC). Results The results indicate that the Weibull model is the best adequate model for studying the cumulative daily number of COVID-19 cases in Iraq according to some criteria such as having the highest F and lowest values for RMSE, bias, MAE, AIC, BIC, AICc and WIC with no any violations of the assumptions for the model’s residuals (independent, normal distribution and homogeneity variance). The overall model test and tests of the estimated parameters showed that the Weibull model was statistically significant for describing the study data. Conclusions From the Weibull model predictions, the number of cumulative confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in Iraq will increase by a range of 101,396 (95% PI: 99,989 to 102,923) to 114,907 (95% PI: 112,251 to 117,566) in the next 24 days (23rd of July to 15th of August 15, 2020). From the inflection points in the Weibull curve, the peak date when the growth rate will be maximum, is 7th of July, 2020, and at this time the daily cumulative cases become 67,338. Using the nonlinear least squares method, the models were estimated and some related measures were calculated in this study using the “nonlinear regression” tool available in Minitab-17, and the initial values of the parameters were obtained from the transformation to the simple linear regression model.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77387901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper an analysis of the first diffusion of the Covid-19 outbreak occurred in late February 2020 in Northern Italy is presented. In order to study the time evolution of the epidemic it was decided to analyze in particular as the most relevant variable the number of hospitalized people, considered as the less biased proxy of the real number of infected people. An approximate solution of the infected equation was found from a simplified version of the SIR model. This solution was used as a tool for the calculation of the basic reproduction number R 0 in the early phase of the epidemic for the most affected Northern Italian regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia), giving values of R 0 ranging from 2.2 to 3.1. Finally, a theoretical formulation of the infection rate is proposed, introducing a new parameter, the infection length, characteristic of the disease.
{"title":"The first diffusion of the Covid-19 outbreak in Northern Italy: an analysis based on a simplified version of the SIR model","authors":"M. Magnoni","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper an analysis of the first diffusion of the Covid-19 outbreak occurred in late February 2020 in Northern Italy is presented. In order to study the time evolution of the epidemic it was decided to analyze in particular as the most relevant variable the number of hospitalized people, considered as the less biased proxy of the real number of infected people. An approximate solution of the infected equation was found from a simplified version of the SIR model. This solution was used as a tool for the calculation of the basic reproduction number R 0 in the early phase of the epidemic for the most affected Northern Italian regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia), giving values of R 0 ranging from 2.2 to 3.1. Finally, a theoretical formulation of the infection rate is proposed, introducing a new parameter, the infection length, characteristic of the disease.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77695767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kaare Græsbøll, L. Christiansen, U. H. Thygesen, C. Kirkeby
Abstract Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.
{"title":"Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions","authors":"Kaare Græsbøll, L. Christiansen, U. H. Thygesen, C. Kirkeby","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0042","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87018220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Objectives A curfew was introduced in France in October 2020 to reduce the spread of Covid-19. This was done for two weeks in 16 departments, or for one week in 38 others, 42 departments not being subjected to the curfew. This article compares the number of new daily hospital admissions in these departments. Methods The ratio of the number of new hospitalisations during these two weeks and in the previous two weeks was computed in the three categories of departments. Results The increase in new hospitalisations was lower in departments under curfew for two weeks than in all other departments, and this result does not seem to be linked to characteristics of the departments before curfew. Conclusions This result shows that the two-week curfew is linked to a lower increase of hospitalisations, but not that the curfew by itself is the cause of this result, as other factors may have played a role.
{"title":"Covid-19: were curfews in France associated with hospitalisations?","authors":"É. Le Bourg","doi":"10.1515/em-2021-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives A curfew was introduced in France in October 2020 to reduce the spread of Covid-19. This was done for two weeks in 16 departments, or for one week in 38 others, 42 departments not being subjected to the curfew. This article compares the number of new daily hospital admissions in these departments. Methods The ratio of the number of new hospitalisations during these two weeks and in the previous two weeks was computed in the three categories of departments. Results The increase in new hospitalisations was lower in departments under curfew for two weeks than in all other departments, and this result does not seem to be linked to characteristics of the departments before curfew. Conclusions This result shows that the two-week curfew is linked to a lower increase of hospitalisations, but not that the curfew by itself is the cause of this result, as other factors may have played a role.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86907559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. A. Bautista Balbás, M. Gil Conesa, Blanca Bautista Balbás, G. Rodríguez Caravaca
Abstract Objectives An essential indicator of COVID-19 transmission is the effective reproduction number (R t ), the number of cases which an infected individual is expected to infect at a particular point in time; curves of the evolution of R t over time (transmission curves) reflect the impact of preventive measures and whether an epidemic is controlled. Methods We have created a Shiny/R web application (https://alfredob.shinyapps.io/estR0/) with user-selectable features: open data sources with daily COVID-19 incidences from all countries and many regions, customizable preprocessing options (smoothing, proportional increment, etc.), different MonteCarlo-Markov-Chain estimates of the generation time or serial interval distributions and state-of-the-art R t estimation frameworks (EpiEstim, R 0). This application could be used as a tool both to obtain transmission estimates and to perform interactive sensitivity analysis. We have analyzed the impact of these factors on transmission curves. We also have obtained curves at the national and sub-national level and analyzed the impact of epidemic control strategies, superspreading events, socioeconomic factors and outbreaks. Results Reproduction numbers showed earlier anticipation compared to active prevalence indicators (14-day cumulative incidence, overall infectivity). In the sensitivity analysis, the impact of different R t estimation methods was moderate/small, and the impact of different serial interval distributions was very small. We couldn’t find conclusive evidence regarding the impact of alleged superspreading events. As a limitation, dataset quality can limit the reliability of the estimates. Conclusions The thorough review of many examples of COVID-19 transmission curves support the usage of R t estimates as a robust transmission indicator.
{"title":"COVID-19 effective reproduction number determination: an application, and a review of issues and influential factors","authors":"L. A. Bautista Balbás, M. Gil Conesa, Blanca Bautista Balbás, G. Rodríguez Caravaca","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives An essential indicator of COVID-19 transmission is the effective reproduction number (R t ), the number of cases which an infected individual is expected to infect at a particular point in time; curves of the evolution of R t over time (transmission curves) reflect the impact of preventive measures and whether an epidemic is controlled. Methods We have created a Shiny/R web application (https://alfredob.shinyapps.io/estR0/) with user-selectable features: open data sources with daily COVID-19 incidences from all countries and many regions, customizable preprocessing options (smoothing, proportional increment, etc.), different MonteCarlo-Markov-Chain estimates of the generation time or serial interval distributions and state-of-the-art R t estimation frameworks (EpiEstim, R 0). This application could be used as a tool both to obtain transmission estimates and to perform interactive sensitivity analysis. We have analyzed the impact of these factors on transmission curves. We also have obtained curves at the national and sub-national level and analyzed the impact of epidemic control strategies, superspreading events, socioeconomic factors and outbreaks. Results Reproduction numbers showed earlier anticipation compared to active prevalence indicators (14-day cumulative incidence, overall infectivity). In the sensitivity analysis, the impact of different R t estimation methods was moderate/small, and the impact of different serial interval distributions was very small. We couldn’t find conclusive evidence regarding the impact of alleged superspreading events. As a limitation, dataset quality can limit the reliability of the estimates. Conclusions The thorough review of many examples of COVID-19 transmission curves support the usage of R t estimates as a robust transmission indicator.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91155813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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