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Trends in the Well-Being of the Aged and Their Prospects through 2030 《到2030年老年人福祉趋势及其前景》
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/FHEP-2015-0039
Gary T. Burtless
The US population over 65 has seen significant and sustained improvement in its absolute and relative well-being over the past half century. This paper offers a survey of trends in old-age poverty, income, inequality, labor market activity, educational attainment, insurance coverage, and health status. It concludes with a brief discussion of whether the favorable trends of the past half century can continue in the next few decades. Even though the absolute and relative positions of the nation’s aged have steadily improved over time, much of the improvement is traceable to public programs like Social Security and Medicare. These programs face gloomy financial prospects. If future voters and lawmakers scale back benefits to keep payroll taxes close to their current level, the nation’s elderly will need to rely on private resources to pay for a bigger fraction of their retirement needs. The statistics on saving and wealth accumulation suggest that relatively few working-age Americans plan to accomplish this by increasing the share of their current incomes they devote to saving. The future economic well-being of the elderly may therefore depend on their willingness to work longer and delay the age at which they rely on public programs and private savings to pay for their consumption.
在过去的半个世纪里,美国65岁以上人口的绝对和相对幸福感都有了显著和持续的改善。本文对老年贫困、收入、不平等、劳动力市场活动、受教育程度、保险覆盖率和健康状况的趋势进行了调查。文章最后简要讨论了过去半个世纪的有利趋势能否在未来几十年继续下去。尽管随着时间的推移,美国老年人的绝对地位和相对地位都在稳步改善,但大部分改善都要归功于社会保障(Social Security)和医疗保险(Medicare)等公共项目。这些项目面临着黯淡的财政前景。如果未来的选民和立法者缩减福利以保持工资税接近目前的水平,那么美国的老年人将需要依靠私人资源来支付他们退休需求的更大一部分。有关储蓄和财富积累的统计数据表明,相对较少的处于工作年龄的美国人计划通过增加他们当前收入中用于储蓄的份额来实现这一目标。因此,老年人未来的经济福利可能取决于他们是否愿意工作更长时间,并推迟依靠公共项目和私人储蓄来支付消费的年龄。
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引用次数: 3
Could Improving Choice and Competition in Medicare Advantage be the Future of Medicare? 改善医疗保险优势的选择和竞争能成为医疗保险的未来吗?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2015-0046
A. Rivlin, Willemsen Daniel
Abstract About 30 percent of Medicare beneficiaries enroll in private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans but do so at a relatively high-cost. This paper explores the advantages and challenges of introducing competitive bidding among MA plans (Plan One) or among MA plans and Fee-for-Service (Plan Two or Premium Support). We conclude that competitive bidding could reduce the cost of Medicare, especially in densely populated urban areas. However, there would be serious challenges in rural areas and risk adjustment methodology would have to be substantially improved. In Plan Two, sicker beneficiaries might move to Fee-for-Service and beneficiaries might have to pay more to stay with a preferred provider or broader network. If these problems are addressed, we believe that premium support can be a meaningful improvement to the MA program.
大约30%的医疗保险受益人参加私人医疗保险优势(MA)计划,但这样做的成本相对较高。本文探讨了在MA计划(计划一)或MA计划和按服务收费(计划二或高级支持)之间引入竞争性招标的优势和挑战。我们的结论是,竞争性招标可以降低医疗保险的成本,特别是在人口密集的城市地区。但是,农村地区将面临严重的挑战,必须大大改进风险调整方法。在计划二中,病情较重的受益人可能会转向按服务收费,而受益人可能需要支付更多的费用才能留在首选的医疗机构或更广泛的医疗网络中。如果这些问题得到解决,我们相信溢价支持可以对硕士项目有意义的改进。
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引用次数: 8
Sex-selective Abortion Bans are Not Associated with Changes in Sex Ratios at Birth among Asian Populations in Illinois and Pennsylvania 性别选择性堕胎禁令与伊利诺斯州和宾夕法尼亚州亚裔人口出生性别比变化无关
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0018
Arindam Nandi, Sital Kalantry, B. Citro
Abstract Legal prohibitions on sex-selective abortions are proliferating in the United States. Eight state legislatures have banned abortions sought on the basis of the sex of the fetus, 21 states have considered such laws since 2009, and a similar bill is pending in U.S. Congress. These laws have been introduced and enacted without any empirical data about their impact or effectiveness. Prior studies of U.S. Census data found sex ratios among foreign-born Chinese, Korean and Indian immigrants were skewed in favor of boys, but only in families where there were already one or two girls. Using the variation in the timing of bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania as natural experiments, we compare the pre-ban and post-ban sex ratios of certain Asian newborn children in these states over 12-year periods. We then compare these ratios with the sex ratios of Asian newborn children in neighboring states during the same period. We find that the bans in Illinois and Pennsylvania are not associated with any changes in sex ratios at birth among Asians. In Illinois and its neighboring states, the sex ratio at birth of Asian children was not male-biased during our study period. On the other hand, the sex ratio at birth among Asians in Pennsylvania and its neighboring states was skewed slightly in favor of boys, but the enactment of the ban did not normalize the sex ratio. This strongly suggests that sex-selective abortion bans have had no impact on the practice of sex selection, to the extent that it occurs, in these states. This finding is highly relevant to legislative and policy debates in the U.S. Congress and state legislatures where sex-selective abortion laws are being considered.
在美国,禁止性别选择性堕胎的法律正在激增。八个州的立法机构已经禁止基于胎儿性别的堕胎,自2009年以来,已有21个州考虑过此类法律,美国国会也正在审议一项类似的法案。这些法律是在没有任何关于其影响或有效性的经验数据的情况下提出和颁布的。先前对美国人口普查数据的研究发现,在外国出生的中国、韩国和印度移民中,性别比例倾向于男孩,但仅限于已经有一两个女孩的家庭。利用伊利诺斯州和宾夕法尼亚州禁令时间的变化作为自然实验,我们比较了禁令前和禁令后这些州某些亚洲新生儿在12年期间的性别比例。然后,我们将这些比率与同期邻国亚洲新生儿的性别比率进行比较。我们发现伊利诺斯州和宾夕法尼亚州的禁令与亚洲出生性别比的任何变化无关。在我们的研究期间,在伊利诺斯州及其邻近州,亚裔儿童出生时的性别比例并没有出现男性偏倚。另一方面,宾夕法尼亚州及其邻近州的亚裔出生性别比略微偏向男孩,但该禁令的颁布并没有使性别比例正常化。这强烈表明,性别选择性堕胎禁令对性别选择的实践没有影响,就这些州发生的情况而言。这一发现与正在考虑性别选择性堕胎法的美国国会和州立法机构的立法和政策辩论高度相关。
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引用次数: 3
Long-Term Effects of Tobacco Prices Faced by Adolescents 青少年面临的烟草价格的长期影响
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0005
M. Auld, M. Zarrabi
Abstract Tobacco taxes in Canada varied markedly across time and across regions in the early 1990s. We exploit this variation to estimate the long reach of prices faced in adolescence on smoking behavior roughly a decade later in early to mid-adulthood. Results from a variety of econometric approaches suggest that there is a small but detectable long-run effect of price faced during adolescence. A 10% increase in prices faced during adolescence, holding contemporaneous prices constant, leads to roughly a 1% reduction in adult smoking propensity and intensity. The results are somewhat sensitive to specification and to how price during adolescence is measured.
20世纪90年代初,加拿大的烟草税在不同的时间和地区之间存在显著差异。我们利用这种变化来估计大约十年后,即成年早期到中期,青少年所面临的价格对吸烟行为的长期影响。各种计量经济学方法的结果表明,青少年时期面临的价格有一个小但可检测的长期影响。在保持同期价格不变的情况下,青少年时期面临的价格增加10%,会导致成人吸烟倾向和强度减少大约1%。结果对规格和如何衡量青少年时期的价格有些敏感。
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引用次数: 2
Public-Private Partnership as a Path to Affordable Healthcare in Emerging Markets 公私伙伴关系是新兴市场实现可负担医疗保健的途径
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0023
J. W. Chou, D. Lakdawalla, J. Vanderpuye-Orgle
Abstract The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have experienced tremendous economic and health gains in recent decades. Two of the major health challenges faced by the BRICS and other low and middle income countries are decreasing inequity in health outcomes and increasing affordability of health insurance. One fiscally sustainable option for the BRICS governments is a public subsidy system for private health insurance plans. This essay lays out the potential applicability and impacts of public subsidies for private health insurance plans, as well as opportunities and challenges for implementation, in the BRICS countries. Overall, providing public subsidies rather than health insurance would enable the BRICS governments to avoid the open-ended financial liabilities that have plagued advanced economies, while still expanding access to health insurance and encouraging the develoment of a robust private health insurance market. We conclude by suggesting an array of pilot programs that could serve as the seeds for publicly subsidized health insurance schemes within the BRICS markets.
近几十年来,金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)在经济和卫生方面取得了巨大成就。金砖国家和其他低收入和中等收入国家面临的两个主要卫生挑战是减少卫生结果的不平等和提高医疗保险的可负担性。金砖国家政府的一个财政可持续选择是对私人医疗保险计划实行公共补贴制度。本文阐述了金砖国家公共补贴对私营医疗保险计划的潜在适用性和影响,以及实施的机遇和挑战。总体而言,提供公共补贴而不是医疗保险,将使金砖国家政府能够避免发达经济体所面临的无止境的金融负债,同时还能扩大医疗保险的覆盖面,并鼓励发展强大的私人医疗保险市场。最后,我们提出了一系列试点方案,这些方案可以作为金砖国家市场内公共补贴医疗保险计划的种子。
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引用次数: 3
The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset. 延缓阿尔茨海默病发病的价值。
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-11-01 Epub Date: 2014-11-04 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0013
Julie Zissimopoulos, Eileen Crimmins, Patricia St Clair

Alzheimer's disease (AD) extracts a heavy societal toll. The value of medical advances that delay onset of AD could be significant. Using data from nationally representative samples from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2008) and Aging Demographics and Memory Study (2001-2009), we estimate the prevalence and incidence of AD and the formal and informal health care costs associated with it. We use microsimulation to project future prevalence and costs of AD under different treatment scenarios. We find from 2010 to 2050, the number of individuals ages 70+ with AD increases 153%, from 3.6 to 9.1 million, and annual costs increase from $307 billion ($181B formal, $126B informal costs) to $1.5 trillion. 2010 annual per person costs were $71,303 and double by 2050. Medicare and Medicaid are paying 75% of formal costs. Medical advances that delay onset of AD for 5 years result in 41% lower prevalence and 40% lower cost of AD in 2050. For one cohort of older individuals, who would go on to acquire AD, a 5-year delay leads to 2.7 additional life years (about 5 AD-free), slightly higher formal care costs due to longer life but lower informal care costs for a total value of $511,208 per person. We find Medical advances delaying onset of AD generate significant economic and longevity benefits. The findings inform clinicians, policymakers, businesses and the public about the value of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of AD.

阿尔茨海默病(AD)造成了严重的社会损失。延缓阿尔茨海默病发病的医学进步的价值可能是显著的。使用来自健康与退休研究(1998-2008)和老龄化人口统计与记忆研究(2001-2009)的全国代表性样本的数据,我们估计了AD的患病率和发病率以及与之相关的正式和非正式医疗保健费用。我们使用微观模拟来预测不同治疗方案下AD的未来患病率和成本。我们发现,从2010年到2050年,70岁以上的老年痴呆症患者人数增加了153%,从360万增加到910万,年成本从3070亿美元(1810亿美元正式成本,1260亿美元非正式成本)增加到1.5万亿美元。2010年人均医疗费用为71303美元,到2050年将翻一番。医疗保险和医疗补助支付75%的正式费用。到2050年,将阿尔茨海默病发病延迟5年的医学进步将使阿尔茨海默病的患病率降低41%,费用降低40%。对于一组会继续患上AD的老年人,5年的延迟导致2.7年的额外生命年(约5年无AD),由于寿命延长,正式护理费用略高,但非正式护理费用较低,人均总价值为511,208美元。我们发现医学上的进步延缓了阿尔茨海默病的发病,产生了显著的经济效益和长寿效益。这些发现让临床医生、政策制定者、企业和公众了解了预防、诊断和治疗阿尔茨海默病的价值。
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引用次数: 177
Retail Tobacco Display Bans 零售烟草陈列禁令
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2013-0019
I. Irvine, V. Nguyen
Abstract Bans on retail tobacco displays, of the type proposed by New York’s Mayor Bloomberg in March 2013, have been operative in several economies since 2001. Despite an enormous number of studies in public health journals using attitudinal data, we can find no econometric event studies of the type normally used in Economics. This paper attempts to fill that gap by using data from 13 cross sections of the annual Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Surveys. These data afford an ideal opportunity to study events of this type given that each of Canada’s 10 provinces implemented display bans at various points between 2003 and 2009. Accordingly, we use difference-in-difference methods to study three behaviors following the introduction of bans: participation in smoking, the intensity of smoking and quit intentions. A critical element of the study concerns the treatment of contraband tobacco. Our estimates provide very little support for the hypothesis that behaviors changed following the bans.
纽约市长布隆伯格于2013年3月提议禁止零售烟草展示,自2001年以来已在几个经济体实施。尽管在公共卫生期刊上有大量使用态度数据的研究,但我们找不到经济学中通常使用的类型的计量经济学事件研究。本文试图通过使用来自加拿大年度烟草使用监测调查的13个横截面的数据来填补这一空白。这些数据为研究这类事件提供了一个理想的机会,因为加拿大10个省中的每个省在2003年至2009年的不同时间点都实施了展示禁令。因此,我们采用差异中差异的方法来研究禁令引入后的三种行为:吸烟参与、吸烟强度和戒烟意图。这项研究的一个关键因素涉及对走私烟草的处理。我们的估计对禁令后行为改变的假设提供了很少的支持。
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引用次数: 2
Can Oral Nutritional Supplements Improve Medicare Patient Outcomes in the Hospital? 口服营养补充剂能改善医院医疗保险患者的预后吗?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0011
D. Lakdawalla, J. Snider, D. Perlroth, C. LaVallee, M. Linthicum, T. Philipson, J. Partridge, P. Wischmeyer
Abstract We analyzed the effect of oral nutritional supplement (ONS) use on 30-day readmission rates, length of stay (LOS), and episode costs in hospitalized Medicare patients (≥65), and subsets of patients diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF) or pneumonia (PNA). Propensity-score matching and instrumental variables were used to analyze ONS and non-ONS episodes from the Premier Research Database (2000–2010). ONS use was associated with reductions in probability of 30-day readmission by 12.0% in AMI and 10.1% in CHF. LOS decreases of 10.9% in AMI, 14.2% in CHF, and 8.5% in PNA were associated with ONS, as were decreases in episode costs in AMI, CHF and PNA of 5.1%, 7.8% and 10.6%, respectively. The effect on LOS and episode cost was greatest for the Any Diagnosis population, with decreases of 16.0% and 15.8%, respectively. ONS use in hospitalized Medicare patients ≥65 is associated with improved outcomes and decreased healthcare costs, and is therefore relevant to providers seeking an inexpensive, evidence-based approach for meeting Affordable Care Act quality targets.
我们分析了口服营养补充剂(ONS)使用对住院医保患者(≥65岁)30天再入院率、住院时间(LOS)和发作费用的影响,以及诊断为急性心肌梗死(AMI)、充血性心力衰竭(CHF)或肺炎(PNA)患者亚群的影响。倾向得分匹配和工具变量用于分析来自Premier Research Database(2000-2010)的国家统计局和非国家统计局事件。使用ONS与AMI患者30天再入院概率降低12.0%和CHF患者降低10.1%相关。AMI患者的LOS降低10.9%,CHF患者的LOS降低14.2%,PNA患者的LOS降低8.5%与ONS相关,AMI、CHF和PNA患者的发作成本分别降低5.1%、7.8%和10.6%。对任意诊断人群的LOS和发作费用的影响最大,分别下降了16.0%和15.8%。在65岁以上的住院医疗保险患者中使用ONS与改善预后和降低医疗成本相关,因此与寻求廉价、循证方法以满足《平价医疗法案》质量目标的提供者相关。
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引用次数: 9
The Effects of Smoking Cessation on Weight Gain: New Evidence Using Workplace Smoking Bans 戒烟对体重增加的影响:工作场所禁烟的新证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2013-0004
Jason M. Fletcher
Abstract Both tobacco use and obesity are among the most important and costly health challenges faced in developed countries. Unfortunately, they may be inversely linked. While policy interventions that have placed limits on tobacco use have increased substantially over time, one unintended consequence may be to increase obesity rates. Issues of selection and unobserved heterogeneity make it difficult to empirically assess the relationship between the two health outcomes. Additionally, there may be heterogeneous policy effects by cessation cause – smoking bans or medical treatments or tobacco prices. This paper focuses on the effects of a rapidly expanding policy by using within-individual differences in exposure to workplace smoking bans to estimate the impact of smoking cessation on weight gain using a large study of over 5000 White and Black respondents followed since 1986. Findings suggest that individuals affected by the smoking bans gained more weight in the short-term than suggested by OLS estimates.
烟草使用和肥胖都是发达国家面临的最重要和最昂贵的健康挑战。不幸的是,它们可能是反向关联的。虽然限制烟草使用的政策干预措施随着时间的推移大大增加,但一个意想不到的后果可能是肥胖率的增加。选择的问题和未观察到的异质性使得很难从经验上评估两种健康结果之间的关系。此外,戒烟禁令、医疗或烟草价格可能会产生不同的政策影响。本文通过对5000多名白人和黑人受访者自1986年以来进行的一项大型研究,利用工作场所禁烟令暴露的个体内部差异来估计戒烟对体重增加的影响,重点关注一项迅速扩大的政策的影响。研究结果表明,受禁烟令影响的个人在短期内的体重增加比OLS估计的要多。
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引用次数: 4
Patient Outcomes and Cost Effects of Medicaid Formulary Restrictions on Antidepressants 医疗补助限制抗抑郁药的患者结局和成本效应
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0016
S. Seabury, D. Lakdawalla, D. Walter, J. Hayes, T. Gustafson, A. Shrestha, D. Goldman
Abstract Many state Medicaid programs have implemented policies designed to reduce spending on prescription drugs by restricting access to branded products. For patients with major depressive disorder, formulary restrictions could severely limit access to antidepressant therapies and disrupt care. We linked data on patient outcomes and spending from 24 state Medicaid programs to information on formulary restrictions from 2001 to 2008. Outcomes included frequency of MDD-related hospitalizations and ER visits per patient and total healthcare spending. We estimated the effect of the policies on patient outcomes and spending using a difference-and-difference approach. We found that restricting access to antidepressants increased the probability of an MDD-related hospitalization by 1.7 percentage points (16.6%). Furthermore, we found no evidence that these restrictions resulted in any net savings for Medicaid.
许多州的医疗补助计划已经实施了旨在通过限制获得品牌产品来减少处方药支出的政策。对于重度抑郁症患者,处方限制可能严重限制获得抗抑郁治疗并扰乱护理。我们将2001年至2008年24个州医疗补助计划的患者结果和支出数据与处方限制信息联系起来。结果包括与mdd相关的住院次数和每个患者的急诊次数以及总医疗支出。我们使用差异和差异方法估计了政策对患者结果和支出的影响。我们发现限制抗抑郁药的使用使mdd相关住院的概率增加了1.7个百分点(16.6%)。此外,我们没有发现任何证据表明这些限制导致了医疗补助的净节省。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Forum for Health Economics and Policy
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