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On the Interplay between Microfinance and Sustainable Development: Evidence from MENA Countries 小额信贷与可持续发展的相互作用:来自中东和北非国家的证据
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-29 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81586
Wajdi Moussa, Nidhal Mgadmi, A. Béjaoui, Tarek Sadraoui
In this paper, we attempt to examine the relationship between the microfinance and sustainable development for 10 MENA countries over the period 1990-2018. To this end, we use a multi-step approach based on different statistical tests and econometric models (STAR, ESTAR, LSTAR and STECM). The empirical results clearly show positive and significant relationship between the indicators of microfinance and the sustainable development. By offering the opportunity to access to microcredit, microfinance institutions can contribute to reinforce the sustainable development. Therefore, households should be encouraged to create investment opportunities and increase their demand for microcredit. So, the present study contributes to the literature on the microfinance by providing convincing evidence that the microfinance and microcredit have a significant effect on the sustainable development.
在本文中,我们试图研究1990年至2018年期间10个中东和北非国家小额信贷与可持续发展之间的关系。为此,我们采用了基于不同统计检验和计量经济模型(STAR、ESTAR、LSTAR和STECM)的多步骤方法。实证结果表明,小额信贷各项指标与可持续发展之间存在显著的正相关关系。小额信贷机构通过提供获得小额信贷的机会,可以为加强可持续发展作出贡献。因此,应该鼓励家庭创造投资机会,增加他们对小额信贷的需求。因此,本研究为小额信贷和小额信贷对可持续发展的显著影响提供了令人信服的证据,为小额信贷的文献研究做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The Asymmetric Influence of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Financial Development in Nigeria: Evidence from NARDL 汇率和通货膨胀对尼日利亚金融发展的非对称影响——来自NARDL的证据
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-29 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81590
Umar Muhammad Dabachi, Suraya Mahmood, Ali Umar Ahmad, A. Jakada, Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, Mohammed Atiku Abubakar, Kabiru Kamalu
This paper examined the asymmetric effects of exchange rate, and inflation on financial development growth using a model enhanced with oil prices asymmetry to apprise model specification. The research question that has been used implies, do the changes in their asymmetry significantly influence financial development? We employed nonlinear auto-regressive distributive lag (NARDL). In addition, we used the monthly data from 1980M01 to 2018M12. We found a long-term negative shock in exchange rate, both short run positive shock and negative shocks, respectively, declining the financial development. Additionally, the long run negative oil price shock and its long-term positive shocks stimulate and decline financial development, respectively. Regarding inflation, its positive and negative shocks in long run, respectively, reduce financial development. While in the short run the negative and positive shock in inflation increase and decline the financial development respectively. Accordingly, the results demonstrate a stable and sustainable inflation and exchange rate environment that would negatively cause financial development to stabilize the oil price and enhance the robust financial system. Therefore, successful policies that promote low inflation and exchange rates, overhaul of reliably improved financial institutions, capital accumulation, and efficient resources mobilization should be put in place for positive financial development to occur.
本文使用一个油价不对称增强的模型来评估模型规范,研究了汇率和通货膨胀对金融发展增长的不对称影响。已经使用的研究问题暗示,它们的不对称性的变化是否显著影响金融发展?我们采用了非线性自回归分配滞后(NARDL)。此外,我们使用了1980M01至2018M12的月度数据。我们发现,汇率存在长期负冲击,分别为短期正冲击和负冲击,均使金融发展呈下降趋势。此外,长期负油价冲击和长期正油价冲击分别刺激和抑制了金融发展。关于通货膨胀,从长远来看,其正面和负面冲击分别会降低金融发展。而在短期内,通货膨胀的负面冲击和正面冲击分别增加和减少了金融发展。因此,研究结果表明,稳定和可持续的通货膨胀和汇率环境将对金融发展产生负面影响,从而稳定油价,增强稳健的金融体系。因此,应该制定成功的政策,促进低通货膨胀和低汇率,彻底改革可靠改善的金融机构,资本积累和有效调动资源,以实现积极的金融发展。
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引用次数: 2
Application of Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) for Analyzing Real-Financial Linkages of Iranian Economy 金融社会会计矩阵(FSAM)在分析伊朗经济实体金融联系中的应用
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-29 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81591
P. Mohajeri, A. Banouei, Seyyed Mohammad Seyyed Hosseini
Prevailing views in Iran suggest that financial sector mobilizes more resource to services than to the commodity producing sectors. On account of double counting in intermediate inputs, the conventional multipliers derived from the Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) cannot solve this problem. As an alternative to conventional multipliers, FSAM GDP multipliers which indicate the growth performance of financial system of economy are proposed. Using a newly constructed 2016 FSAM for Iran, both conventional and GDP multipliers of Real Social Accounting Matrix (RSAM) and FSAM have been worked out. The overall findings are as follows: First- the average conventional and GDP multipliers in FSAM are larger than their corresponding figures in RSAM. Second- in RSAM, the average conventional multipliers of commodity producing sectors are larger than services whereas the GDP multipliers give the opposite pictures which support the prevailing opinions in Iran. Third- With respect to conventional and GDP multipliers at the sectoral level, the results show that in the case of conventional multipliers, 8 out of 10 top highest multipliers are commodity producing sectors whereas GDP multipliers give exactly the opposite trend which vindicates the resource mobilization of financial sector towards the service sectors.
伊朗的主流观点表明,金融部门向服务业调动的资源比向商品生产部门调动的资源更多。由于中间投入的重复计算,传统的从金融社会会计矩阵(FSAM)推导的乘数无法解决这个问题。作为传统乘数的一种替代,提出了FSAM GDP乘数来表示经济金融系统的增长绩效。使用新构建的2016年伊朗FSAM,计算出了实际社会核算矩阵(RSAM)和FSAM的传统乘数和GDP乘数。总体发现如下:第一,FSAM中的平均常规乘数和GDP乘数大于RSAM中的相应数字。其次,在RSAM中,商品生产部门的平均传统乘数大于服务业,而GDP乘数给出了相反的情况,支持了伊朗的主流观点。第三,关于部门一级的传统乘数和国内生产总值乘数,结果表明,在传统乘数的情况下,10个最高乘数中有8个是商品生产部门,而国内生产总值乘法器给出了完全相反的趋势,证明了金融部门向服务部门调动资源的正确性。
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引用次数: 0
Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: The Interacting Role of Financial Development in Nigeria 实际汇率与经济增长:尼日利亚金融发展的互动作用
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-29 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81587
I. Farouq, N. Sambo
This article gives empirical evidence that the real exchange rate can significantly affect sustainable productivity growth, which confirms the hypothesis that the effect critically depends on the degree of the economy’s financial development. Following the relatively underdeveloped financial system in Nigeria, its exchange rate reduces the productivity growth of the economy. In this article, we consider the interacting effect of exchange rate fluctuation and the level of financial development instead of analyzing the exchange rate fluctuation in isolation. The empirical estimation is based on the Nigerian data set covering the years 1980-2019; through the application of threshold autoregressive non-linear co-integration and the non-linear ARDL estimation. We further deploy a test of causality using the frequency domain that enables us to differentiate a temporal as well as a permanent causality. The findings appear that financial development amplifies the positive effects of the real exchange rate on Nigeria’s economic growth. It also records that the uncertainty in foreign capital flows adversely affects Nigeria’s output growth. The paper recommends that the Nigerian policymakers should in their attempt to diversify and improve the future growth of the economy, promote adequate financial sector development since financial shocks are amplified with poorly implemented credit markets.
本文给出了实际汇率对可持续生产率增长有显著影响的实证证据,证实了这种影响严重依赖于经济金融发展程度的假设。在尼日利亚金融体系相对不发达之后,其汇率降低了经济的生产力增长。在本文中,我们考虑了汇率波动与金融发展水平的相互作用,而不是孤立地分析汇率波动。经验估计基于尼日利亚1980-2019年的数据集;通过阈值自回归非线性协积分和非线性ARDL估计的应用。我们使用频域进一步部署了因果关系测试,使我们能够区分时间因果关系和永久因果关系。研究结果表明,金融发展放大了实际汇率对尼日利亚经济增长的积极影响。它还记录了外国资本流动的不确定性对尼日利亚的产出增长产生了不利影响。该文件建议,尼日利亚政策制定者在努力实现经济多样化和改善未来增长时,应促进金融部门的充分发展,因为信贷市场实施不力会加剧金融冲击。
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引用次数: 1
External Debt and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Iran: Markov Switching Approach 伊朗的外债和汇率波动:马尔可夫转换方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81547
A. Zareei, M. Karimzadeh, Zeinab Shabani Koshalshahi, Zahra Ranjbarian
When net External assets change, the money supply of a country and also the central bank’s debt will change. Exchange rate is much more important in countries like Iran, because a great portion of government’s revenue comes from the External exchange of natural resources. So, exchange rate directly influences the government’s financial situation, revenues, and costs. As External debt is one of the main financing resources of budget deficit, thus how it will be spent can positively or negatively affect the exchange rate fluctuations. This research tried to study the effect of External debt on exchange rate by using monetary approach to exchange rate, and to that end used time series data for 1981–2017 period. In addition, due to the nonlinear relationship between the variables based on the LR and BDS test, nonlinear models were used to estimate. The results show that External debt and money supply have positive and significant effect on exchange rate. So, monetary policy can derivate the exchange rate from its long-run trend. In contrast, the difference between domestic and external production has a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate.
当外部净资产发生变化时,一个国家的货币供应量以及央行的债务都会发生变化。汇率在伊朗这样的国家要重要得多,因为政府收入的很大一部分来自自然资源的对外交换。因此,汇率直接影响政府的财政状况、收入和成本。由于外债是预算赤字的主要融资来源之一,因此如何使用外债会对汇率波动产生积极或消极的影响。本研究试图通过使用货币汇率方法来研究外债对汇率的影响,并为此使用了1981年至2017年期间的时间序列数据。此外,由于基于LR和BDS检验的变量之间存在非线性关系,因此使用非线性模型进行估计。研究结果表明,外债和货币供应量对汇率有正向显著影响。因此,货币政策可以从汇率的长期趋势中推导出汇率。相比之下,国内生产和外部生产之间的差异对汇率有负面和显著的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Do Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness Influence Poverty in Pakistan? Evidence from NARDL Approach 外国直接投资和贸易开放会影响巴基斯坦的贫困吗?NARDL方法的证据
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81556
M. Chishti, B. Hussain, Faisal Jehangir
Poverty is considered a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that can be subjected to various socio-economic factors. This study aims at assessing the potential asymmetric influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness on poverty in Pakistan from 1972 to 2018 by employing the Non-linear Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The asymmetric ARDL bound testing technique confirms the long-run association among the selected variables. Furthermore, we deploy three proxies (Gini index, headcount ratio, and household consumption expenditures) to measure poverty for more robust results. The findings demonstrate that positive shocks from foreign direct investment and trade openness work as effective measures by reducing the harmful effects of poverty. Conversely, the vicious circle of poverty becomes severe due to the negative shocks in foreign direct investment in the case of the Gini index and household expenditures consumption as a proxy of poverty and the negative shocks in trade openness in the case of household expenditures consumption as a proxy of poverty. Moreover, the findings also disclose that population growth and health expenditures help in ameliorating the deleterious repercussions of poverty. For policymakers having an interest in asymmetric nexus among foreign direct investment, trade openness, and poverty, this study suggests the apropos implications.
贫困被认为是一个复杂和多方面的现象,可能受到各种社会经济因素的影响。本研究旨在采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)方法评估1972年至2018年外国直接投资(FDI)和贸易开放对巴基斯坦贫困的潜在不对称影响。非对称ARDL界检验技术证实了所选变量之间的长期相关性。此外,我们部署了三个指标(基尼指数、员工比例和家庭消费支出)来衡量贫困,以获得更稳健的结果。研究结果表明,外国直接投资和贸易开放带来的积极冲击是减少贫困有害影响的有效措施。相反,由于外国直接投资的负面冲击,在基尼指数和家庭支出消费代表贫困的情况下,贫困的恶性循环变得严重,而贸易开放的负面冲击则在家庭支出消费作为贫困的代表的情况下。此外,研究结果还表明,人口增长和卫生支出有助于减轻贫困的有害影响。对于对外国直接投资、贸易开放和贫困之间的不对称关系感兴趣的政策制定者来说,这项研究表明了恰当的含义。
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引用次数: 6
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction in Iran: A TVP-VARMA Model 伊朗财政和货币政策的相互作用:一个TVP-VARMA模型
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81550
H. Tavakolian, Javad Taherpoor
The importance of monetary and fiscal policy coordination, in view of the financial crises of recent decades, has increased more and this has led countries to adopt coherent and coordinated policy combinations to deal with the adverse effects of crises on the economy. To examine the situation of coordination and interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Iran we use a time-varying parameter VARMA model with stochastic volatility. Following Klime et al (2016) which is based on Sargent and Surico (2011), we drive law-frequency relationship between inflation and government fiscal stance which reflects a time-varying indicator of the interaction and coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, because if the monetary and fiscal policy is coordinated, the relationship between inflation and the government's financial situation will be low. The results show different monetary and fiscal policy interactions during different presidential era. The highest level of coordination between the two policymakers occurred in the final years of the second term of the presidency. However, in the third term of the presidency, the level of interaction between the two policymakers increased. Finally, in the last years of this period, the two policymakers have moved towards coordination, and this trend has continued in the next presidential period, and the least turmoil in this coordination has occurred in the last period.
鉴于最近几十年的金融危机,货币和财政政策协调的重要性进一步增加,这导致各国采取连贯和协调的政策组合来处理危机对经济的不利影响。为了检验伊朗货币和财政政策之间的协调和相互作用情况,我们使用了一个随机波动的时变参数VARMA模型。在Klime等人(2016)基于Sargent和Surico(2011)的基础上,我们推导了通货膨胀与政府财政立场之间的规律频率关系,这反映了货币和财政政策相互作用和协调的时变指标,因为如果货币和财政政策协调,通货膨胀与政府财政状况之间的关系就会很低。结果显示,在不同的总统任期,货币和财政政策的相互作用是不同的。这两位政策制定者之间最高级别的协调发生在总统第二任期的最后几年。然而,在总统的第三个任期内,两位政策制定者之间的互动程度有所增加。最后,在这一时期的最后几年,两位政策制定者开始走向协调,这一趋势在下一届总统任期内继续下去,这种协调中最少的动荡发生在最后一个时期。
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引用次数: 0
Testing Piketty’s Hypothesis in Analyzing Factors Affecting Income Inequality in Iran: Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) Approach 在分析影响伊朗收入不平等的因素中检验皮凯蒂的假设:库存-流量一致性(SFC)方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81549
Ali Sarkhosh-Sara, Khadije Nasrollahi, Kariem Azarbayejani, A. Jamalmanesh
Reducing inequality and establishing social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the main concerns of economic policymakers which has been emphasized in the constitution in Iran. Explaining the relationship between inequality and its causes has been one of the most challenging areas of economic debate in the recent decades; despite extensive research in this area, there are still many ambiguous issues in this regard. In recent years, new hypotheses have been proposed by the French economist, Thomas Piketty on the main causes of the spread of inequality. In his analysis, he considers the gap between the rate of return on capital and the rate of economic growth (r-g) to be the main causes of inequality. However, despite providing logical explanations consistent with changes in inequality patterns, he has not conducted any empirical tests for its scientific-theoretical chain. Therefore, these question arise as to how empirically verifiable the Piketty hypothesis is and is it able to explain the increase in inequality of different countries? For this purpose, a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model was used as a first model in the present study to investigate the relationship between inequality and growth in a macroeconomic framework of Iran. This model tests the conclusions and Piketty assumptions for the Iranian economy when changing key parameters. The results of this model showed that under certain circumstances with decreasing growth rate, income inequality increases. However, the analysis proved that there are no inevitable conditions under which a reduction in the growth rate will lead to a sharp increase in the level of inequality.
通过平衡收入和财富分配来减少不平等和建立社会正义是伊朗宪法中强调的经济政策制定者的主要关切之一。解释不平等及其原因之间的关系是近几十年来经济辩论中最具挑战性的领域之一;尽管在这方面进行了广泛的研究,但在这方面仍然存在许多模棱两可的问题。近年来,法国经济学家托马斯·皮克蒂就不平等现象蔓延的主要原因提出了新的假设。在他的分析中,他认为资本回报率和经济增长率之间的差距是不平等的主要原因。然而,尽管他提供了与不平等模式变化相一致的逻辑解释,但他没有对其科学理论链进行任何实证检验。因此,出现了这样一个问题:皮克提假说在经验上的可验证性如何,它是否能够解释不同国家不平等的加剧?为此,在本研究中,股票流动一致性(SFC)模型被用作第一个模型,以调查伊朗宏观经济框架中不平等与增长之间的关系。该模型在改变关键参数时检验了伊朗经济的结论和Piketty假设。该模型的结果表明,在一定的增长率下降的情况下,收入不平等现象加剧。然而,分析证明,在不存在不可避免的条件下,增长率的降低会导致不平等程度的急剧增加。
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引用次数: 0
Factors that Influence Muslim Employee Behavior to Contribute to Money Waqf through Salary Cutting 影响穆斯林员工减薪导致金钱流失的因素
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81548
N. Huda, Perdana Wahyu Sentosa, N. Rini
The purpose of this article is to analyse the factors that can influence the behaviour of Muslim employees to contribute to the endowment of money through salary deductions. The research method used is quantitative. The sampling technique uses a purposive sampling technique. The number of respondents was 156. The results of this study showed that the product knowledge variable had no significant direct effect on the intention of contributing to the endowment of money through salary deductions. Islamic Religiosity is having a substantial impact on the plan to add to the donation of money through salary deductions due to the amount of t-test 2.2303> 1.96. Consumer Attitude has a significant effect on the intention to contribute to the endowment of money through salary deductions because the t-test value is 2.7174> 1.96. Trust significantly influences the aim to add to the donation of money through salary deductions because the t-test value is 3,2647> 1.96. The intention has a significant effect on the behaviour of contributing to waqf money through salary deductions because of the t-test value of 13.8070> 1.96. Based on the results of the study, in principle, respondents are willing to make waqf money through salary cuts. If this can realize, it undoubtedly encourages the acceptance of waqf money, which in the end, waqf will further contribute to community economic empowerment (maukuf alaih). Related to that, we need a role model first to make further policy steps.
本文的目的是分析影响穆斯林员工通过工资扣除为捐赠捐款的行为的因素。所用的研究方法是定量的。采样技术使用有目的的采样技术。受访者有156人。这项研究的结果表明,产品知识变量对通过工资扣除来贡献金钱的意图没有显著的直接影响。由于t检验2.2303>1.96的金额,伊斯兰宗教对通过工资扣除增加捐款的计划产生了重大影响。消费者态度对通过工资扣除为捐赠捐款的意愿有显著影响,因为t检验值为2.7174>1.96。信任显著影响通过工资扣除增加捐款的目的,因为t检验值为32647>1.96。由于t检验值13.8070>1.96,该意图对通过工资扣除向宗教基金捐款的行为有显著影响。根据研究结果,原则上,受访者愿意通过减薪来赚宗教基金的钱。如果这能够实现,无疑会鼓励接受宗教基金的资金,最终,宗教基金将进一步促进社区经济赋权(maukuf-alaih)。与此相关的是,我们首先需要一个榜样来采取进一步的政策措施。
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引用次数: 3
The Interdependence of Tehran Stock Exchange upon the Oil Price and USD Exchange rate return Using Quantile Regression and Time-Frequency Domain Analysis 基于分位数回归和时频域分析的德黑兰证券交易所对油价和美元汇率收益率的相互依存关系
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.22059/IER.2021.81546
M. S. Tash, G. Zamanian, Khadijeh Dinarzehi
Compared to GARCH, ARDL, VAR, and similar methods that are commonly used for stock market analysis and portfolio pricing, the quantile regression has proven to be more advantageous. In this study, we combine the quantile regression with wavelet decomposition to analyze different investment horizons in Tehran Stock Exchange. The discrete wavelet decomposition is used to divide the indices time series into short-term (2–16 days), mid-term (16–128 days), and long-term (128–512 days) horizons. The investment horizons are then accurately studied in a bear, normal, and bull market. Since Iran is an oil-exporting country and its economy is highly impacted by fluctuations in the USD exchange rate return, it is of crucial importance to analyze the effects of oil price and free-market USD exchange rate return on the stock market for investment policy-making and portfolio management. The results demonstrate how the exchange rate return volatility and the OPEC basket price fluctuation affect the stock market. The results illustrate strong evidence on the assumption of a long-term strong positive correlation between TSE and the USD exchange rate return increase.
与股市分析和投资组合定价常用的GARCH、ARDL、VAR和类似方法相比,分位数回归已被证明更具优势。在本研究中,我们将分位数回归与小波分解相结合来分析德黑兰证券交易所的不同投资领域。离散小波分解用于将指数时间序列划分为短期(2–16天)、中期(16–128天)和长期(128–512天)。然后在熊市、正常市场和牛市中准确地研究投资范围。由于伊朗是一个石油出口国,其经济深受美元汇率回报波动的影响,分析油价和自由市场美元汇率回报对股市的影响对于投资决策和投资组合管理至关重要。研究结果表明,汇率回报率波动和欧佩克篮子价格波动对股市的影响。研究结果有力地证明了TSE与美元汇率回报率增长之间存在长期强正相关性的假设。
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引用次数: 1
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Iranian Economic Review
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