Esmaeil Jafarimehr, B. Sahabi, H. Heidari, M. A. Dehnavi
Based on financial literature, when information asymmetry is present, the agency problem can affect the bank’s lending. In this regard, the contract between the bank and bank’s agents (who are involved in lending process) and monetary incentives are very crucial. Furthermore, the career concerns and the characteristics of the bank’s agents can affect the agents’ performance and effectiveness of the bank’s monetary incentives. This paper investigates the effects of characteristics of the branch managers on microloans quality in an Iranian commercial bank. Results show that (1) micro-lending quality of the female branch managers is better than their male counterparts; (2) the quality of micro-lending managed by older branch managers (or branch managers who are closer to retirement age) is poorer than that of their younger counterparts; (3) the higher education of the branch managers improves the quality in micro-lending.
{"title":"The Effects of Branch Manager’s Characteristics on Micro-Lending Quality: Evidence from a Commercial Bank in Iran","authors":"Esmaeil Jafarimehr, B. Sahabi, H. Heidari, M. A. Dehnavi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81558","url":null,"abstract":"Based on financial literature, when information asymmetry is present, the agency problem can affect the bank’s lending. In this regard, the contract between the bank and bank’s agents (who are involved in lending process) and monetary incentives are very crucial. Furthermore, the career concerns and the characteristics of the bank’s agents can affect the agents’ performance and effectiveness of the bank’s monetary incentives. This paper investigates the effects of characteristics of the branch managers on microloans quality in an Iranian commercial bank. Results show that (1) micro-lending quality of the female branch managers is better than their male counterparts; (2) the quality of micro-lending managed by older branch managers (or branch managers who are closer to retirement age) is poorer than that of their younger counterparts; (3) the higher education of the branch managers improves the quality in micro-lending.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46394031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Return. We explore the relationship among the ISE return, crude oil price, inflation rate and exchange rate via employing monthly data from 2000-04-01 until 2017-12-01 in Turkey. Based on the Markov Regime Switching model, we find that ISE return is divided into two regimes. The results indicate that stock return lags have a positive effect on the stock market itself; and only the second lag in regime 1 is significant. Moreover, the results show that the positive effects of crude oil price and negative effects of inflation rate in regime 0 (low-return regime) are meaningful, while exchange rate is meaningful just in regime 1 (high-return regime), which lead to reductions in stock market return. Furthermore, probability matrix indicates that the probability of stability in regime 0 is more than that of regime 1. Overall, the findings are important to investors and policymakers to pay more attention on crude oil price and inflation rate due to the probability of stability in regime 0 is more.
{"title":"Investigating the Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Istanbul Stock Exchange Return by Applying Markov Regime Switching Model","authors":"H. Heidari, Parinaz Dadashzadehrishekani","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81555","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Return. We explore the relationship among the ISE return, crude oil price, inflation rate and exchange rate via employing monthly data from 2000-04-01 until 2017-12-01 in Turkey. Based on the Markov Regime Switching model, we find that ISE return is divided into two regimes. The results indicate that stock return lags have a positive effect on the stock market itself; and only the second lag in regime 1 is significant. Moreover, the results show that the positive effects of crude oil price and negative effects of inflation rate in regime 0 (low-return regime) are meaningful, while exchange rate is meaningful just in regime 1 (high-return regime), which lead to reductions in stock market return. Furthermore, probability matrix indicates that the probability of stability in regime 0 is more than that of regime 1. Overall, the findings are important to investors and policymakers to pay more attention on crude oil price and inflation rate due to the probability of stability in regime 0 is more.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44287493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Investigating the dynamic relationship between markets has attracted the interest of many researchers; however; assessing the asymmetric volatility spillovers has been addressed by a few studies. In this regard, this study mainly aims to investigate the asymmetric spillovers of oil price return and exchange rate, as the key variables, on chemical industry stock returns in Iran through the lens of a VAR Triangular BEKK in mean (VAR-TBEKK-in-mean) model. Also, daily data from March 31, 2009, to June 28, 2019 was selected. The chemical industry was selected since attracted a high share of capital in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and highly correlated with crude oil prices. The results indicated a significant volatility spillover from oil and exchange markets to the chemical industry stocks. Moreover, the result of the symmetry test indicated that global oil price shocks asymmetrically affect the conditional volatility of chemical industry stock returns. The results additionally indicate that the relationship between these markets and the extent of risk spillover between them is severely affected by the (good and bad) news and volatility of another market (particularly the oil market). Based on the results, investors are better off allocating their portfolio in the chemical stocks more carefully, especially when the volatilities in the two markets (exchange and crude oil) are high. Capital market officials are advised to develop the stock market by deepening the capital market and taking into account the risk spillovers of foreign exchange and oil markets to the stock market.
{"title":"Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Chemical Stocks: Fresh Results from a VAR-TBEKK-in-Mean Model for Iran","authors":"M. Sayadi, M. Rafei, Younes Sheykha","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81545","url":null,"abstract":"Investigating the dynamic relationship between markets has attracted the interest of many researchers; however; assessing the asymmetric volatility spillovers has been addressed by a few studies. In this regard, this study mainly aims to investigate the asymmetric spillovers of oil price return and exchange rate, as the key variables, on chemical industry stock returns in Iran through the lens of a VAR Triangular BEKK in mean (VAR-TBEKK-in-mean) model. Also, daily data from March 31, 2009, to June 28, 2019 was selected. The chemical industry was selected since attracted a high share of capital in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and highly correlated with crude oil prices. The results indicated a significant volatility spillover from oil and exchange markets to the chemical industry stocks. Moreover, the result of the symmetry test indicated that global oil price shocks asymmetrically affect the conditional volatility of chemical industry stock returns. The results additionally indicate that the relationship between these markets and the extent of risk spillover between them is severely affected by the (good and bad) news and volatility of another market (particularly the oil market). Based on the results, investors are better off allocating their portfolio in the chemical stocks more carefully, especially when the volatilities in the two markets (exchange and crude oil) are high. Capital market officials are advised to develop the stock market by deepening the capital market and taking into account the risk spillovers of foreign exchange and oil markets to the stock market.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46287906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Some evidence indicates the role of economic variables including unemployment and inflation on committing a crime. However, the researches regarding the role of climate factors on crime are a few. This paper is investigating the climate factors alongside economic ones influencing crime in Iran for the period of 1984-2020. We use the misery index, the combination of inflation and unemployment in this work. One of our hypotheses is that there is a significant relationship between the misery index and committing crimes in Iran. The results indicate that firstly, there are positive and significant relationships between the misery index and economic growth on one hand and the amount of crime on the other. Secondly, there is a positive and significant relationship between climate factors and the number of committed crimes.
{"title":"Analyzing the Impact of Economic and Climate Factors on Crime in Iran","authors":"Y. Dadgar, Sadegh Menatnejad, R. Nazari","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81557","url":null,"abstract":"Some evidence indicates the role of economic variables including unemployment and inflation on committing a crime. However, the researches regarding the role of climate factors on crime are a few. This paper is investigating the climate factors alongside economic ones influencing crime in Iran for the period of 1984-2020. We use the misery index, the combination of inflation and unemployment in this work. One of our hypotheses is that there is a significant relationship between the misery index and committing crimes in Iran. The results indicate that firstly, there are positive and significant relationships between the misery index and economic growth on one hand and the amount of crime on the other. Secondly, there is a positive and significant relationship between climate factors and the number of committed crimes.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45179163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nigeria is unarguably one of the countries with its citizens widely spread across the globe and the income earned forms a huge chunk of remittance back to Nigeria. The study focuses on what implications remittances may have for unemployment in Nigeria. Remittance is treated as being endogenously determined by the number of migrants, the nominal exchange rate (with the Naira as local currency), the inflation rate and the migrants’ income. Data from 1981 to 2019 is calibrated for structural break points and stationarity under conditions of regimes changes. While the data was found to have been affected by regime changes and stationary in levels, an Instrumental Variable Regression model was estimated and it was found that remittance positively and significantly influence unemployment. However, when remittance is interacted with the dependants in Nigeria, unemployment is observed to fall. The study strongly recommends that fiscal planning should take an account of the inflow of remittances when curbing unemployment. The study further recommends that there is the need to deliberately encourage a rise in the demand for the Naira as this would protect the value of locally produced goods from being eroded by remittances.
{"title":"Remittance Inflow and Unemployment in Nigeria","authors":"Godfrey I. Ihedimma, Godstime I. Opara","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81551","url":null,"abstract":"Nigeria is unarguably one of the countries with its citizens widely spread across the globe and the income earned forms a huge chunk of remittance back to Nigeria. The study focuses on what implications remittances may have for unemployment in Nigeria. Remittance is treated as being endogenously determined by the number of migrants, the nominal exchange rate (with the Naira as local currency), the inflation rate and the migrants’ income. Data from 1981 to 2019 is calibrated for structural break points and stationarity under conditions of regimes changes. While the data was found to have been affected by regime changes and stationary in levels, an Instrumental Variable Regression model was estimated and it was found that remittance positively and significantly influence unemployment. However, when remittance is interacted with the dependants in Nigeria, unemployment is observed to fall. The study strongly recommends that fiscal planning should take an account of the inflow of remittances when curbing unemployment. The study further recommends that there is the need to deliberately encourage a rise in the demand for the Naira as this would protect the value of locally produced goods from being eroded by remittances.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42073434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohammad Ahlis Djirimu, Haerul Anam, Frilly Andrelia Utami, A. D. Tombolotutu, A. Yani
This research aims to analyze the feasibility of implementing single currency policy in ASEAN+3 countries based on annual data from 1993 to 2017. In this research, the panel data is analyzed using Pooled Least Square regression model and Moving Average forecasting method to predict optimum currency area indices of ASEAN+3 in the period of 2018 to 2022. The results showed that (1) ASEAN+3 region is not ready to implement single currency policy because of an increasing trend of asymmetric shock, lack of business cycle synchronization, and differences in production structure, trade relations, and economy size among ASEAN+3 countries. (2) There are four converged country pairs which mean higher feasibility of forming optimum currency area for the four country pairs; Brunei Darussalam and Singapore have the most symmetrical foreign exchange volatility among the other country pairs.
{"title":"Analysis of Single Currency Implementation in Asean+3","authors":"Mohammad Ahlis Djirimu, Haerul Anam, Frilly Andrelia Utami, A. D. Tombolotutu, A. Yani","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81552","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to analyze the feasibility of implementing single currency policy in ASEAN+3 countries based on annual data from 1993 to 2017. In this research, the panel data is analyzed using Pooled Least Square regression model and Moving Average forecasting method to predict optimum currency area indices of ASEAN+3 in the period of 2018 to 2022. The results showed that (1) ASEAN+3 region is not ready to implement single currency policy because of an increasing trend of asymmetric shock, lack of business cycle synchronization, and differences in production structure, trade relations, and economy size among ASEAN+3 countries. (2) There are four converged country pairs which mean higher feasibility of forming optimum currency area for the four country pairs; Brunei Darussalam and Singapore have the most symmetrical foreign exchange volatility among the other country pairs.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47967905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mbulawa Strike, F. N. Okurut, M. NtsosaMogale., N. Sinha
Zimbabwe’s experiences hyperinflation (2000-2008) and dollarization (2009-2019) has implications on the making of investment decisions. The uniqueness of these periods justifies the need for a critical analysis as decisions on whether or not to invest are sensitive to such structural changes. In view of this, the study uses the modified Tobin’s Q model to examine the main determinants of investment behavior. A dynamic and non-linear model is applied using data from a panel of 30 listed and non-financial firms for the period 2000 to 2016. The main determinants of investment decisions are managerial discretion or power, financial constraints, uncertainty and access to external sources of finance. Findings are sensitive to the period of analysis and consistent with the pecking order hypothesis. Interactions between investment expenditure and other corporate financial decisions are confirmed. Policy makers need to take a differentiated approach in making investment decisions. It is desirable to develop policies that are sensitive to prevailing market conditions; reduce financial constraints and remove informational inefficiencies to improve uptake of debt finance and other external funding sources. Monitoring of managerial decision making power will reduce levels of entrenchment and hence the agency problem. Firms should improve on future financial flexibility by taking less debt and a dynamic investment strategy that is sensitive to firm size is more plausible.
{"title":"Firm Investment Behavior under Hyperinflation and Dollarization: A Case of Zimbabwe Listed Firms","authors":"Mbulawa Strike, F. N. Okurut, M. NtsosaMogale., N. Sinha","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81554","url":null,"abstract":"Zimbabwe’s experiences hyperinflation (2000-2008) and dollarization (2009-2019) has implications on the making of investment decisions. The uniqueness of these periods justifies the need for a critical analysis as decisions on whether or not to invest are sensitive to such structural changes. In view of this, the study uses the modified Tobin’s Q model to examine the main determinants of investment behavior. A dynamic and non-linear model is applied using data from a panel of 30 listed and non-financial firms for the period 2000 to 2016. The main determinants of investment decisions are managerial discretion or power, financial constraints, uncertainty and access to external sources of finance. Findings are sensitive to the period of analysis and consistent with the pecking order hypothesis. Interactions between investment expenditure and other corporate financial decisions are confirmed. Policy makers need to take a differentiated approach in making investment decisions. It is desirable to develop policies that are sensitive to prevailing market conditions; reduce financial constraints and remove informational inefficiencies to improve uptake of debt finance and other external funding sources. Monitoring of managerial decision making power will reduce levels of entrenchment and hence the agency problem. Firms should improve on future financial flexibility by taking less debt and a dynamic investment strategy that is sensitive to firm size is more plausible.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42741527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Development is a multi-dimensional process which has evolved over time with conceptual challenges and has undergone different dimensions to complete the word. One of its important dimensions is paying attention to social justice within the framework of regional equilibrium. The present article tries to investigate this important dimension for the tenth government in Iran. With the aim of analyzing regional equilibrium process and providing priorities for the development of the provinces can play an effective role in national policies to promote regional equality and decentralization. Using multi-dimensional decision making (MADM) and topsis model, after the formation of a Regression and Matrix model with 21 indicators and 157 sub-indicators for the developmental level of the provinces, it was revealed that Tehran and South Khorasan provinces placed first and last respectively and using the cluster model Iranian provinces were categorized into five groups from which one province was a highly developed province, six provinces were developed, 11 provinces with moderate development, 12 undeveloped provinces and 1 was considered as a deprived province. Among other results of the study, we can mention the direct relationship between the development of regions with population growth and its indirect relation with the spatial distance from the capital for groups of 5 in the cluster method. Also, a ranking of the provinces is presented in terms of institutional indicators.
{"title":"The Study of The Role of Governments in Regional Development in Iran (Case Study: Tenth Government)","authors":"A. Azadi, S. Delangizan, A. Falahati","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81477","url":null,"abstract":"Development is a multi-dimensional process which has evolved over time with conceptual challenges and has undergone different dimensions to complete the word. One of its important dimensions is paying attention to social justice within the framework of regional equilibrium. The present article tries to investigate this important dimension for the tenth government in Iran. With the aim of analyzing regional equilibrium process and providing priorities for the development of the provinces can play an effective role in national policies to promote regional equality and decentralization. Using multi-dimensional decision making (MADM) and topsis model, after the formation of a Regression and Matrix model with 21 indicators and 157 sub-indicators for the developmental level of the provinces, it was revealed that Tehran and South Khorasan provinces placed first and last respectively and using the cluster model Iranian provinces were categorized into five groups from which one province was a highly developed province, six provinces were developed, 11 provinces with moderate development, 12 undeveloped provinces and 1 was considered as a deprived province. Among other results of the study, we can mention the direct relationship between the development of regions with population growth and its indirect relation with the spatial distance from the capital for groups of 5 in the cluster method. Also, a ranking of the provinces is presented in terms of institutional indicators.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68438423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sustainable management of water resources in order to maintain environmental needs requires an economic approach in the agricultural sector. Water security and management in the agricultural sector is the most important approach to sustainable development in Iran. Given the development of Iran and the transformation of its national economy, the agricultural sector has emerged as the pivot of the economic security and viability. In the economic approach, the management of demand requires determining the real price of water, so it is necessary to estimate the real price of water in this sector. The present study uses the cross-sectional data for the 2018-2019 crop year in order to estimate the price of water for mango and also to estimate its demand with an emphasis on environmental inputs. To this end, the real price of water is determined by the residual method, and the demand function is estimated by the translog cost function and the equations of the contribution of inputs in cost. The results support the good fit of the model used for the cost function of mango in the studied county. The results for the coefficients in Chabahar County indicate that water cost has a positive relationship with the prices of manure, water, seedling, and crop yield and a negative relationship with the prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Based on the results of the water demand function, water is a substitute for manure, chemical fertilizer, and seedling with partial elasticities of >1, revealing the impact of water use management and economic valuation on improving the use of other environmental inputs (pesticides, manure, and chemical fertilizers) and seedling, as well as the water itself, in mango production in this region. It is recommended to adopt policies like optimal pricing of inputs including pesticides, manure, chemical fertilizers, and seedling in order to curb the resulting environmental pollution.
{"title":"Economic Management of Water by Using Valuation Policy in Mango Orchards with an Emphasis on Environmental Inputs in Chabahar County","authors":"M. Abbasian, A. Shahraki, N. Ahmadi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.81251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.81251","url":null,"abstract":"Sustainable management of water resources in order to maintain environmental needs requires an economic approach in the agricultural sector. Water security and management in the agricultural sector is the most important approach to sustainable development in Iran. Given the development of Iran and the transformation of its national economy, the agricultural sector has emerged as the pivot of the economic security and viability. In the economic approach, the management of demand requires determining the real price of water, so it is necessary to estimate the real price of water in this sector. The present study uses the cross-sectional data for the 2018-2019 crop year in order to estimate the price of water for mango and also to estimate its demand with an emphasis on environmental inputs. To this end, the real price of water is determined by the residual method, and the demand function is estimated by the translog cost function and the equations of the contribution of inputs in cost. The results support the good fit of the model used for the cost function of mango in the studied county. The results for the coefficients in Chabahar County indicate that water cost has a positive relationship with the prices of manure, water, seedling, and crop yield and a negative relationship with the prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Based on the results of the water demand function, water is a substitute for manure, chemical fertilizer, and seedling with partial elasticities of >1, revealing the impact of water use management and economic valuation on improving the use of other environmental inputs (pesticides, manure, and chemical fertilizers) and seedling, as well as the water itself, in mango production in this region. It is recommended to adopt policies like optimal pricing of inputs including pesticides, manure, chemical fertilizers, and seedling in order to curb the resulting environmental pollution.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44343369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present study aimed to investigate the expandability of Iranian export to Brazil using both micro and macro-level approaches. At the micro-level, Iran's export that keeps pace with the Brazilian market were identified based on relevant conventional indicators including normalized revealed comparative advantage index, Cosine index and simple estimation of trade potential. Using HS two-digit data from 2001 to 2018, it is shown that Iran has an export potential to Brazil for some commodities. The impact of major macroeconomic factors on Iran's exports to Brazil is analyzed based on the gravity model and applying the vector error correction method (VECM). In the short-run and the long-run, the results confirm that Iran’s GDP, the joint population size of the two countries, air freight cost have a positive effect while Brazil’s GDP and Linder variable harm Iran’s export to Brazil. The ratio of the official exchange rate of Iran to Brazil has a positive effect in the short-run and a negative effect in the long-run. Brazil's membership in the WTO has a significant positive effect on Iran's exports to Brazil. While the impact of financial and nonfinancial sanctions on Iran's exports to Brazil is not significant. In summary, based on the macro-level indicators, the development of trade relations is logically justified. However, trade capacity between the two countries has not been realized in the given period due to political and international circumstances (not because of the lack of economic justification).
{"title":"Iran's Export Potential to Brazil (2001-2018): Based on Conventional Indicators and Gravity-VEC Approach","authors":"Elham Karkhaneh, N. Pourrostami, Ali Feizollahi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2021.80662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2021.80662","url":null,"abstract":"The present study aimed to investigate the expandability of Iranian export to Brazil using both micro and macro-level approaches. At the micro-level, Iran's export that keeps pace with the Brazilian market were identified based on relevant conventional indicators including normalized revealed comparative advantage index, Cosine index and simple estimation of trade potential. Using HS two-digit data from 2001 to 2018, it is shown that Iran has an export potential to Brazil for some commodities. The impact of major macroeconomic factors on Iran's exports to Brazil is analyzed based on the gravity model and applying the vector error correction method (VECM). In the short-run and the long-run, the results confirm that Iran’s GDP, the joint population size of the two countries, air freight cost have a positive effect while Brazil’s GDP and Linder variable harm Iran’s export to Brazil. The ratio of the official exchange rate of Iran to Brazil has a positive effect in the short-run and a negative effect in the long-run. Brazil's membership in the WTO has a significant positive effect on Iran's exports to Brazil. While the impact of financial and nonfinancial sanctions on Iran's exports to Brazil is not significant. In summary, based on the macro-level indicators, the development of trade relations is logically justified. However, trade capacity between the two countries has not been realized in the given period due to political and international circumstances (not because of the lack of economic justification).","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42131670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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